Booker or Kaminsky

[Dr Spaceman]

Why wouldn't he? Seems like a random claim with no substantiation about a second-year player – the youngest of his class at that – who happened to be drafted by a bad team. Without any reasoning this comment reads rather funny.

Well I wouldn’t put it in those particular terms, because I think he could be a decent bench player, but I don’t think the guy has all that much potential either. He’s Rail skinny, he’s atrocious in the paint, he’s completely lacking in any defensive ability, and seems to only really be good at creating long twos and sometimes threes off the dribble.

But the most damning thing is he doesn’t have good basketball instincts. He doesn’t read the floor well, bad shot selection, and has awful tunnel vision on PNR despite having some good finishers on the team.

He reminds me a lot of Brandon Jennings. That’s obviously not a compliment. I think best case he could be Jamal Crawford unless he totally changes his approach to the game.

Just looking at things from the offensive side of the ball, I think most of what you said is overstated. For one thing, early on, Jennings definitely had a lot of potential. At the very least, all star potential, but it seemed to be a little bit above that even. His problem was that he didn’t improve; year to year, he came back the same exact player, with no new moves, with no new insight on the game, with no new leadership qualities. His court vision never seemed to improve, his shot selection neither. That’s an individual case that doesn’t really project to Booker.

Best case scenario he’s Jamal Crawford in what way ? Now, I don’t see that as an insult, but I don’t think it’s accurate either. He’s already better than Crawford was early on; gets to the FT line more than we’ve ever seen from Crawford, and searches out shots from the mid-range better than Crawford did as well. We’re talking about a 20 year old kid really at this point, that just had an outstanding season(despite middling/slightly below average efficiency).

A good comparison for him, in my eyes, is a young Klay Thompson. Similar output offensively, with Booker coming out ahead, if only due to a bigger role. Stylistically, they’re different but I think offensively, a similar trojection would be Klay, if he weren’t playing with Curry — so more shots, higher volume. Defensively, Klay will likely always be better, but there are a number of perimeter superstars that weren’t good defensively early on, and then turned into great players on that end.

I don’t think this is much of a comparison honestly. Kaminsky hasn’t looked at all impressive, on either end of the ball from what I’ve seen. Clearly Booker is better now, and also has more upside. Even if one was to downplay Booker’s upside, he could be averaging 25/4/4 good efficiency as soon as next year, while Frank’s projection is looking more like a solid stretch-big.

Re: bolded, you literally list all of the attributes that caused me to make the Booker/Jennings comparison and then say they don’t apply to Booker. I think they do, and that’s why I make the comparison.

Now you can disagree, and people are going to certainyl wildly differ in their projections for young players. I don’t see Klay Thompson at all. Klay was raw, really raw, but he showed an aptitude for working off ball and integrating into an offense where even though he sucked at pretty much everything you could see the outline of a good player. I don’t see that with Booker.

The truth is there are very few guys good enough to play lead guard. If you’re not one of those guys, but you can only play like one, there’s not really a great career path to project for you.

[Saberestar]

I could understand comparing Kaminsky to TREVOR Booker because of their similar position and role on their teams.....but to DEVIN Booker??

Look at the results from the poll...enough said.

[The-Power]

The truth is there are very few guys good enough to play lead guard. If you’re not one of those guys, but you can only play like one, there’s not really a great career path to project for you.

I don't believe Booker can only play lead guard. He should be able to be a capable spot-up shooter (despite not being very advanced off the ball yet, it's still a quality he has and can make use of if he ever buys into that role) and he can be a shot-creator next to a playmaker not unlike DeRozan (who I'm not high on, but DeRozan with superior efficiency due to a 3pt-shot can definitely be a solid contributor on a winning team).

I agree with you, though, that him not being able to be a lead guard – and assuming he doesn't develop into a great off-ball player – would really limit his potential. However, I don't believe that he can't be a productive player in a different role and I also wouldn't rule out improvements as a lead guard at all. Maybe not a full-time lead guard who deserves offensive primacy above all but someone who can run the team for certain periods of time with reasonable offensive efficiency and that's certainly more valuable than what I expect from Kaminsky down the road.

As I hinted at earlier, I see some improvements of his game as of late. Less of a scorer with tunnel-vision and high usage and more of a playmaker who picks his shots more wisely while taking the team flow into consideration. I'm not sure whether he's going to follow that path in the future or not but I don't see why that's out of the question – he's extremely young and inexperienced after all, lots of potential growth (especially mentally in terms of understanding the game and his role) ahead of him.

[NotReady]

Booker really isn't a good shooter, I don't know why people always say he is or will become one. I mean, yeah, he could become one, but by that logic anyone could.

He's an elite slasher already, though, which is one of the harder-to-find skills at the NBA level. Kaminsky could become a great role playing big man but that's about it. And while the associated skills with that role are also very important, they're not as rare.

[The-Power]

Booker really isn't a good shooter, I don't know why people always say he is or will become one. I mean, yeah, he could become one, but by that logic anyone could.

Not really. What do you consider to be ‘good‘? Booker is a 83.5% FT-shooter already, shot 36.3% on 3's last year (5.2 3PA/G) as the primary scoring option after shooting 41.1% on 3's in college (82.8% FTs) – and his shooting form looks really good and consistent. That's all while still being extremely young and inexperienced.

Booker is by no means an elite shooter and will likely never be one. But you can already argue that he's a good shooter (above average at least) and, even if your standards are higher than that, it's almost impossible for him to not become a good shooter eventually as he continues to develop beyond what he's already capable of doing as a 20-year old.

[Dr Spaceman]

The truth is there are very few guys good enough to play lead guard. If you’re not one of those guys, but you can only play like one, there’s not really a great career path to project for you.

I don't believe Booker can only play lead guard. He should be able to be a capable spot-up shooter (despite not being very advanced off the ball yet, it's still a quality he has and can make use of if he ever buys into that role) and he can be a shot-creator next to a playmaker not unlike DeRozan (who I'm not high on, but DeRozan with superior efficiency due to a 3pt-shot can definitely be a solid contributor on a winning team).

I agree with you, though, that him not being able to be a lead guard – and assuming he doesn't develop into a great off-ball player – would really limit his potential. However, I don't believe that he can't be a productive player in a different role and I also wouldn't rule out improvements as a lead guard at all. Maybe not a full-time lead guard who deserves offensive primacy above all but someone who can run the team for certain periods of time with reasonable offensive efficiency and that's certainly more valuable than what I expect from Kaminsky down the road.

As I hinted at earlier, I see some improvements of his game as of late. Less of a scorer with tunnel-vision and high usage and more of a playmaker who picks his shots more wisely while taking the team flow into consideration. I'm not sure whether he's going to follow that path in the future or not but I don't see why that's out of the question – he's extremely young and inexperienced after all, lots of potential growth (especially mentally in terms of understanding the game and his role) ahead of him.

I the Kaminsky comparison is kind of a disservice, he’s got more upside than Frank.

With that said, I’ll just quickly make two points here:

1. He’s not actually a good shooter. He shoots 38% on all corner 3s, 35% on all catch and shoot threes, 31% with a close defender and only 35% with space. He just isn’t very good at it, there’s no way to be charitable here. You can project him to be a good off ball shooter the same way you could project young Klay Thompson to be an awesome pick and roll handler. Just not his game.

2. Being young doesn’t automatically make someone high-ceiling. There’s a really tiny amount of NBA players who are actually as good as Derozan, and that’s for a reason. I know it sounds obvious, but there are hundreds of players in the league and only like 8% of them are better than Derozan. Most guys who play just won’t reach that level.

EDIT: Just for a quick comparison, Gary Harris shoots 47% on catch and shoot 3s, 39% on “open” shots and 50% on “wide open” shots

[The-Power]

1. He’s not actually a good shooter. He shoots 38% on all corner 3s, 35% on all catch and shoot threes, 31% with a close defender and only 35% with space. He just isn’t very good at it, there’s no way to be charitable here. You can project him to be a good off ball shooter the same way you could project young Klay Thompson to be an awesome pick and roll handler. Just not his game.

A 20 year old Sophomore shooting slightly above league average on 3's on relatively high volume, as the leading scorer on a crappy team, who also is a consistent 83% FT-shooter is certainly not unlikely to develop into a good shooter. Does that mean he'll be a good off-ball player? Not necessarily, he might also be always more comfortable creating for himself relatively speaking. But the odds are much higher than someone who never ran the PnR because of passing, awareness and ball handling deficiencies becoming an awesome PnR ball handler. That much is pretty obvious, in my eyes.

I definitely agree with you that being young doesn't equal having a lot of untapped potential. But this thread is in no small parts about ceilings after all and some sort of projections are therefore required. Players tend to improve – some more, some less – and that's why using their Rookie/Sophomore numbers to prove a perceived certainty is as off as believing in magical improvement in every area because of youth. Just look at LeBron's finishing % around the rim for his Rookie year and how this improved over time. Not saying we should expecting anything close to that development with Booker's off-ball shooting but it shows that players who look like having all the tools might just need to get more comfortable with playing in the NBA before we can see what they're truly capable of.

Or is there anything with his mechanics that leads to your doubts regarding improvements in catch-and-shoot situations? Or is it his mind set, i.e. that you don't believe he'll ever get to the spots where he could be an efficient off-ball shooter and not because he's technically incapable of being that? I'd recommend that we'll revisit this topic in a year or maybe two – depending on what the Suns are trying to do with him – and see if he developed considerably in this regard. I'm not sure he will myself, to be clear here, but I'm also not as pessimistic as some of you are; and yes, youth and watching him develop in certain areas recently plays a part in that.

[Dr Spaceman]

1. He’s not actually a good shooter. He shoots 38% on all corner 3s, 35% on all catch and shoot threes, 31% with a close defender and only 35% with space. He just isn’t very good at it, there’s no way to be charitable here. You can project him to be a good off ball shooter the same way you could project young Klay Thompson to be an awesome pick and roll handler. Just not his game.

A 20 year old Sophomore shooting slightly above league average on 3's on relatively high volume, as the leading scorer on a crappy team, who also is a consistent 83% FT-shooter is certainly not unlikely to develop into a good shooter. Does that mean he'll be a good off-ball player? Not necessarily, he might also be always more comfortable creating for himself relatively speaking. But the odds are much higher than someone who never ran the PnR because of passing, awareness and ball handling deficiencies becoming an awesome PnR ball handler. That much is pretty obvious, in my eyes.

I definitely agree with you that being young doesn't equal having a lot of untapped potential. But this thread is in no small parts about ceilings after all and some sort of projections are therefore required. Players tend to improve – some more, some less – and that's why using their Rookie/Sophomore numbers to prove a perceived certainty is as off as believing in magical improvement in every area because of youth. Just look at LeBron's finishing % around the rim for his Rookie year and how this improved over time. Not saying we should expecting anything close to that development with Booker's off-ball shooting but it shows that players who look like having all the tools might just need to get more comfortable with playing in the NBA before we can see what they're truly capable of.

Or is there anything with his mechanics that leads to your doubts regarding improvements in catch-and-shoot situations? Or is it his mind set, i.e. that you don't believe he'll ever get to the spots where he could be an efficient off-ball shooter and not because he's technically incapable of being that? I'd recommend that we'll revisit this topic in a year or maybe two – depending on what the Suns are trying to do with him – and see if he developed considerably in this regard. I'm not sure he will myself, to be clear here, but I'm also not as pessimistic as some of you are; and yes, youth and watching him develop in certain areas recently plays a part in that.

I think it might just be time to say we have to agree to disagree on this one. I’ll be honest, there’s nothing really objective I can point to that’s gonna make you relate to the way I see Booker, and that’s fine.

I’ll be honest, most of the time I hate when people talk like this, but after a decade of following the league day to day, watching guys succeed and watching guys wash out, sometimes you can just tell when a player has “it”. Not many young guys get he keys to a team the way Booker did, and in Booker’s case it’s jsut because his team had literally nothing going for it, not because he was such a great prospect they abandoned other goals to groom him.

To me there’s a difference between guys who show they get winning basketball and just do it badly, and those that just don’t get winning basketball. Booker falls into the latter camp for me. I feel the same watching him as I did with Evans and Okafor. If I’m wrong I will be the first to admit it, but I just don’t se it with him.

[bondom34]

I hadn't checked at end of season, but Dr. S if you hadn't check Booker without Knight on court, specifically after he was hurt. I wasn'tm a Booker guy but he got me to believe at least a little end of last year.

[In2ition]

1. He’s not actually a good shooter. He shoots 38% on all corner 3s, 35% on all catch and shoot threes, 31% with a close defender and only 35% with space. He just isn’t very good at it, there’s no way to be charitable here. You can project him to be a good off ball shooter the same way you could project young Klay Thompson to be an awesome pick and roll handler. Just not his game.

A 20 year old Sophomore shooting slightly above league average on 3's on relatively high volume, as the leading scorer on a crappy team, who also is a consistent 83% FT-shooter is certainly not unlikely to develop into a good shooter. Does that mean he'll be a good off-ball player? Not necessarily, he might also be always more comfortable creating for himself relatively speaking. But the odds are much higher than someone who never ran the PnR because of passing, awareness and ball handling deficiencies becoming an awesome PnR ball handler. That much is pretty obvious, in my eyes.

I definitely agree with you that being young doesn't equal having a lot of untapped potential. But this thread is in no small parts about ceilings after all and some sort of projections are therefore required. Players tend to improve – some more, some less – and that's why using their Rookie/Sophomore numbers to prove a perceived certainty is as off as believing in magical improvement in every area because of youth. Just look at LeBron's finishing % around the rim for his Rookie year and how this improved over time. Not saying we should expecting anything close to that development with Booker's off-ball shooting but it shows that players who look like having all the tools might just need to get more comfortable with playing in the NBA before we can see what they're truly capable of.

Or is there anything with his mechanics that leads to your doubts regarding improvements in catch-and-shoot situations? Or is it his mind set, i.e. that you don't believe he'll ever get to the spots where he could be an efficient off-ball shooter and not because he's technically incapable of being that? I'd recommend that we'll revisit this topic in a year or maybe two – depending on what the Suns are trying to do with him – and see if he developed considerably in this regard. I'm not sure he will myself, to be clear here, but I'm also not as pessimistic as some of you are; and yes, youth and watching him develop in certain areas recently plays a part in that.

I think it might just be time to say we have to agree to disagree on this one. I’ll be honest, there’s nothing really objective I can point to that’s gonna make you relate to the way I see Booker, and that’s fine.

I’ll be honest, most of the time I hate when people talk like this, but after a decade of following the league day to day, watching guys succeed and watching guys wash out, sometimes you can just tell when a player has “it”. Not many young guys get he keys to a team the way Booker did, and in Booker’s case it’s jsut because his team had literally nothing going for it, not because he was such a great prospect they abandoned other goals to groom him.

To me there’s a difference between guys who show they get winning basketball and just do it badly, and those that just don’t get winning basketball. Booker falls into the latter camp for me. I feel the same watching him as I did with Evans and Okafor. If I’m wrong I will be the first to admit it, but I just don’t se it with him.

Wow, you've been following the league day to day for a whole decade. Congratulations, that impressive. As far as having "it", I guess you've become more of an expert than D Wade, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James who have all said he's NEXT. You come off as a self-appointed "expert" who probably can only see the game in one way, and of course to you it's the only way. Let's just say, we'll see.

[Jaivl]

Wow, you've been following the league day to day for a whole decade. Congratulations, that impressive. As far as having "it", I guess you've become more of an expert than D Wade, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James who have all said he's NEXT. You come off as a self-appointed "expert" who probably can only see the game in one way, and of course to you it's the only way. Let's just say, we'll see.

Well, in terms of player analysis I certainly believe more in him than in any of those three.

[dhsilv2]

I think booker has some nice upside, but that 70 point game had skewed expectations absurdly. But here I think you have a guy who can still be an allstar and another guy who could be a high value bench guy. This coming year who knows, they both are awful.

[In2ition]

Wow, you've been following the league day to day for a whole decade. Congratulations, that impressive. As far as having "it", I guess you've become more of an expert than D Wade, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James who have all said he's NEXT. You come off as a self-appointed "expert" who probably can only see the game in one way, and of course to you it's the only way. Let's just say, we'll see.

Well, in terms of player analysis I certainly believe more in him than in any of those three.

Oh, you're right, they are prone to gross exaggerations and annointing young players that turn into trash.

[HoopsMalone]

Lol, as bad as Kaminsky was tonight Booker might have "outplayed" him when it comes to sucking....

Both look like deep bench prospects if this keeps up...

[Dr Spaceman]

A 20 year old Sophomore shooting slightly above league average on 3's on relatively high volume, as the leading scorer on a crappy team, who also is a consistent 83% FT-shooter is certainly not unlikely to develop into a good shooter. Does that mean he'll be a good off-ball player? Not necessarily, he might also be always more comfortable creating for himself relatively speaking. But the odds are much higher than someone who never ran the PnR because of passing, awareness and ball handling deficiencies becoming an awesome PnR ball handler. That much is pretty obvious, in my eyes.

I definitely agree with you that being young doesn't equal having a lot of untapped potential. But this thread is in no small parts about ceilings after all and some sort of projections are therefore required. Players tend to improve – some more, some less – and that's why using their Rookie/Sophomore numbers to prove a perceived certainty is as off as believing in magical improvement in every area because of youth. Just look at LeBron's finishing % around the rim for his Rookie year and how this improved over time. Not saying we should expecting anything close to that development with Booker's off-ball shooting but it shows that players who look like having all the tools might just need to get more comfortable with playing in the NBA before we can see what they're truly capable of.

Or is there anything with his mechanics that leads to your doubts regarding improvements in catch-and-shoot situations? Or is it his mind set, i.e. that you don't believe he'll ever get to the spots where he could be an efficient off-ball shooter and not because he's technically incapable of being that? I'd recommend that we'll revisit this topic in a year or maybe two – depending on what the Suns are trying to do with him – and see if he developed considerably in this regard. I'm not sure he will myself, to be clear here, but I'm also not as pessimistic as some of you are; and yes, youth and watching him develop in certain areas recently plays a part in that.

I think it might just be time to say we have to agree to disagree on this one. I’ll be honest, there’s nothing really objective I can point to that’s gonna make you relate to the way I see Booker, and that’s fine.

I’ll be honest, most of the time I hate when people talk like this, but after a decade of following the league day to day, watching guys succeed and watching guys wash out, sometimes you can just tell when a player has “it”. Not many young guys get he keys to a team the way Booker did, and in Booker’s case it’s jsut because his team had literally nothing going for it, not because he was such a great prospect they abandoned other goals to groom him.

To me there’s a difference between guys who show they get winning basketball and just do it badly, and those that just don’t get winning basketball. Booker falls into the latter camp for me. I feel the same watching him as I did with Evans and Okafor. If I’m wrong I will be the first to admit it, but I just don’t se it with him.

Wow, you've been following the league day to day for a whole decade. Congratulations, that impressive. As far as having "it", I guess you've become more of an expert than D Wade, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James who have all said he's NEXT. You come off as a self-appointed "expert" who probably can only see the game in one way, and of course to you it's the only way. Let's just say, we'll see.

I see you’re a new poster. The truth is most of the people who post on this forum are regulars who have been here for years, and so really all I was going for is to say "this is just my opinion, not really backed by anything but the way I feel". I certainly wasn’t trying to be arrogant and certainly wasn’t trying to 1 up The-Power or anyone else. That’s simply my opinion and I’ll leave it up to everyone else to decide whether or not they think I’m credible.

[homecourtloss]

Wow, you've been following the league day to day for a whole decade. Congratulations, that impressive. As far as having "it", I guess you've become more of an expert than D Wade, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James who have all said he's NEXT. You come off as a self-appointed "expert" who probably can only see the game in one way, and of course to you it's the only way. Let's just say, we'll see.

Well, in terms of player analysis I certainly believe more in him than in any of those three.

Oh, you're right, they are prone to gross exaggerations and annointing young players that turn into trash.

Spaceman is one of the best posters on he entire site. Active players for the most part aren’t very good at evaluating players as far picking players who help teams win. Booker isn’t going to be a difference maker in this league.

[Dr Spaceman]

Well, in terms of player analysis I certainly believe more in him than in any of those three.

Oh, you're right, they are prone to gross exaggerations and annointing young players that turn into trash.

Spaceman is one of the best posters on he entire site. Active players for the most part aren’t very good at evaluating players as far picking players who help teams win. Booker isn’t going to be a difference maker in this league.

Appreciate the kind words. The truth is to some degree I understand where he’s coming from. I came to RealGM in part to get away from the hot take world in basketball analysis, and I assume most people are similar. As time goes by I rely less and less on traditional stats, preferring lineup data, on/off, eye test and stuff like that. Everyone on Twitter is a pundit of course, even if they don’t know how to watch games. Here I can rely on my reputation of course, except for when new posters come and don’t really know me. So I guess I could find a better way to get across that I do to some degree take basketball fairly seriously and generally do okay as an analyst.

Although he certainly could find a way to make that point with a bit more tact

[In2ition]

Oh, you're right, they are prone to gross exaggerations and annointing young players that turn into trash.

Spaceman is one of the best posters on he entire site. Active players for the most part aren’t very good at evaluating players as far picking players who help teams win. Booker isn’t going to be a difference maker in this league.

Appreciate the kind words. The truth is to some degree I understand where he’s coming from. I came to RealGM in part to get away from the hot take world in basketball analysis, and I assume most people are similar. As time goes by I rely less and less on traditional stats, preferring lineup data, on/off, eye test and stuff like that. Everyone on Twitter is a pundit of course, even if they don’t know how to watch games. Here I can rely on my reputation of course, except for when new posters come and don’t really know me. So I guess I could find a better way to get across that I do to some degree take basketball fairly seriously and generally do okay as an analyst.

Although he certainly could find a way to make that point with a bit more tact

You may very well be the best poster in the history of posters, I certainly don't know you from Adam. I thought you came off super arrogant and had to qualify your statements with your resume.

Booker didn't do me any favors last night and in fact made my defense of him look foolish. He was horrible and the entire Suns team was terrible. He was forcing shots, was super inefficient and frankly may have started the snowball effect. I'm not a fan of Earl Watson and his "Go 1 on 1 while everyone else stands around hero ball" type of offense. No ball movement, no player movement, no reads involved, it was and is pathetic. If he didn't have a shot, he had to stop and look for someone to bail him out to pass to. If he wants to be the face of the franchise, he better start looking in the mirror and fixing his own flaws.

[HoopsMalone]

Kaminsky was an impact player tonight. Granted, it was against Atlanta but it makes me feel better that perhaps the first game was an aberration. I'm looking forward to watching Booker tonight against a horrible defensive team (Lakers).

[In2ition]

Kaminsky was an impact player tonight. Granted, it was against Atlanta but it makes me feel better that perhaps the first game was an aberration. I'm looking forward to watching Booker tonight against a horrible defensive team (Lakers).

Corey Brewer played some good defense on Booker, made everything hard, amd pretty much face guarded him the whole time, and he still ended up with nearly a triple double and 2 steals. Needs to cut those turnovers down for sure though. Hit a clutch 3 to pull the Suns within 1 with under 10 seconds left.