RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 (Ben Wallace)

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 (Ben Wallace) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jan 8, 2018 5:00 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. ???

Go!

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jan 8, 2018 5:38 pm

1st vote: Ben Wallace
Pros
*The single-greatest defensive center (defensive player) left on the table, and perhaps by a handy margin. In his prime he could come up with 4-5+ blocks/100 possessions (and not just at the rim, but was willing to come out and contest mid-range shooters) while still often being top 1-2 in the league in rebounds and DREB%. Was also one of the better pnr defenders, solid on post-D (despite being a little undersized for center), and OK on a switch. Just an utter monster on the defensive end.
**Arguably the best player on one ensemble title cast.
***In his large-sample years cumulative RAPM's (as shown in #77 [and previous] thread(s)), he's competitive in year-after-year impact with other recent inductees, despite his offensive weaknesses.

Cons
*On the short-list for worst offensive players ever.
**Longevity not quite as good as the length of his career indicates. 16 seasons, though <1,100 rs games, and really only a 7-year prime ('01-'07).

Still, at this point on the list, his defensive acumen and proven consistent impact year-over-year, as well as some of his accomplishments and accolades, make him competitive for this spot.


2nd vote: Dan Issel
Basically a 180 from Big Ben. Wallace a giant on defense and an embarrassment on offense. Issel was a near-giant on offense, and at least a slight embarrassment on defense. But piggy-backing on posts by scabbarista in this thread, his production and efficiency over a long career cannot be denied. He scored over 27,400 points in his career, above league average efficiency in 14 of his 15 seasons. Many of those years he did so without the benefit of an elite play-maker.
Nice mid-range shot, simple but effective post moves, and an often under-appreciated tendency which he shared with Larry Bird: quick decisiveness with the ball. From what I've watched, he NEVER held the ball unnecessarily. He either made his move (immediately) or he passed off (immediately); but he always kept the ball moving. He seemed to inherently understand the benefit of not allowing the defense (both the man guarding you, as well as the team defense) a chance to get set.

He was a fair/OK rebounder; somewhat less than you'd like from a center, perhaps, but certainly adequate for a PF (which was really probably more his natural position, he was simply played out of position for majority of his career). Avg 11.6 reb/100 possessions with a 13.2 TREB% over his 15-year career (in which he averaged 34.3 mpg for). Excluding his final two seasons, it was closer to 11.8 reb/100 with a TREB% of 13.8 (in nearly 36 mpg). By way of comparison, Draymond Green in '17-present has a 13.3 TREB% and avg of 11.6 reb/100 possessions while averaging 32.3 mpg.

Was a decent passing big man (though he quite simply liked to shoot it more :)).
And overall had an outstanding turnover economy relative to his offensive production. The only big men I've so far found with a lower mTOV% are LaMarcus Aldridge, Horace Grant, Dirk Nowitzki, and Al Horford (barely).

Defensively, I won't deny he leaves something to be desired. But we're long past the point of flawless candidates here (see my first vote).

Issel's longevity/durability/consistency is remarkable. Again: 15 seasons, never missed more than 6 games in any single season, and in fact prior to his final two seasons had never missed more than 3 games in a year (missed 8 total in his first TEN seasons combined; just 13 total in his first 13 seasons). And as scabbarista pointed out, you could argue his prime lasted 13 years. He was pretty much an ironman.

With all his virtues and flaws, I ultimately view him very similar to Amar'e Stoudemire: fantastic scorer, weak defender, fair rebounder......except Issel soundly trumps him in longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jan 8, 2018 8:02 pm

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: Larry Nance


Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Nobody else changed or dominanted on both ends to the same degree for more than 1-1.5 years (Walton, Hawkins). Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking. He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league but then neither was anyone else, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense and with 15-20ppg scoring on limited range (He did a lot of outside shooting his first year . . . badly; coaching of the day didn't like centers out of the post though). Like Zo, his playmaking was mediocre but in addition to strong rebounding and defense, he was Indiana's intimidator, in a league where everyone was trying to make a name for themselves. And, he did it without major foul trouble issues. The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

It is reasonable to compare Daniels to Kawhi Leonard as they have similar length of career by now. Kawhi brings excellent wing defense early on, but Daniels was probably more impactful defensively as intimidating defensive centers tend to be (especially in the 20th century). Kawhi's defense is still good and his scoring has blown up, a clearly better option than Daniels; also clearly a better passer. Daniels brings rebounding and toughness at a level equal to guys like Wes Unseld or Dave Cowens who are already in from his era (other league). I think the impact Daniels brought was appreciably higher in his league than that Kawhi has in the current league, enough to overcome the much weaker league he played in. Connie Hawkins would be another early ABA guy, higher peak than Daniels, shorter career though he did have a 1st team All-NBA between his first and second major knee injury. More of a career than Walton, less than Daniels. With careers this short, the difference is magnified. Of the bunch, I rate Daniels the highest.

James Worthy is the next guy I have been looking at. Was never a fan of his but he was the Lakers version of Kevin McHale (highly efficient second scorer with good defense and weak rebounding who had a history of stepping up in clutch time). But I think Owly has convinced me that Larry Nance looks stronger, very similar to Marion. If Worthy doesn't have a big advantage in playoff numbers, the Nance's shotblocking (probably the greatest ever outside of the true centers) gives him a strong case.

Bill Sharman is probably the best 50s guy left, Greer or Bellamy from the 60s (Bells wasn't a great team player but it was a center's league). Paul Silas or David Thompson from the 70s? Worthy from the 80s (ahead of Bernard King or Mark Aquirre who were the Carmelos of their day). Rodman from the 90s and Ben Wallace from the 00s for pure defensive impact. Mark Gasol of Kawhi Leonard for active players? Help me out here, I know I'm forgetting some legit contenders.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#4 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 4:18 am

pandrade83 wrote:Primary Vote: Larry Nance
Alternate: Tim Hardaway


I think Nance gets lost in the shuffle a bit historically.

New Material since Post #75

Nance has a legit to clear claim for being the best player on 4 successful teams post merger - 2 Conference Finals teams ('84 Suns, '92 Cavs) the #1 team in SRS ('89 Cavs) & the #4 SRS team in '83 (Suns). Very few players left have that sort of capability. While it's true that the surrounding talent on those teams was all quite high - it takes a top level player to be of that caliber over teams spread that far apart. He leads all the aforementioned teams in WS & VORP & he has outstanding box score ORTG/DRTG differentials that lead those squads (+13, +12, +18, +20 respectively).

A typical year is 19-8-3-1 steal, 2.5 blocks on really strong shooting metrics with good turnover economy especially for a big and strong defense (3 X All-Defense) and he delivers 11 such years.

Amongst post merger remaining players, he is 6th in career WS & 2nd in VORP and 3rd in PER with career minutes exceeding 30 K.

In years where he suffers injuries in prime, the impact on team performance is clear.

'85 - 29-32 with, 7-14 without (+12)
'86 - 29-44 with, 3-6 without (+6)
'87 - 32-37 with, 4-9 without (+13)
'89 - 51-22 with, 6-3 without (+2)
'90 - 35-27 with, 7-13 without (+17)

Qualitatively there's a lot to love. I'll wrap up on a video against a playoff elimination game against one of the GOAT Teams - '92 Chicago when Nance is at age 32.



Note that he takes the opening tip at age 32 over taller Brad Daugherty.

Nance shows good range, intelligent movement without the ball, quality passer, strong help defender, solid post moves.

I'd rather have 11 years of that than anything anyone else has to offer at this stage.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll post more once it's truly his turn but some of the talking points for Hardaway:

Awards/Accolades
5 X All-NBA - running out of guys who achieved that post merger
3 Top 10 MVP finishes - running out of guys who achieved that post merger

Metrics
-Everyone else who is a multi-year member of the 20-9-54% TS Club is in
-Strong TO economy for how much he had the ball with most prime seasons < 14% TO rate
-3 years of +20 PER & 10+WS* ('91 was 9.9) & BPM of 4 or higher
-Registers 2nd in NPI RAPM in '97, 11th in '01, unweighted chained 5 year NPI RAPM from '97-'01 places him inside the Top 20 in a typical year - this is when he's in the back half of his prime.

Impact on winning
-Led a repeat Division winner that won 61 games & made the ECF in WS
-Averaged 25-11-3 steals in the '91 playoffs that included an upset of the Spurs
-Averaged 26-7 in '98 Playoffs
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#5 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 4:28 am

penbeast0


We're pretty near the time where it's worth having a discussion on the ABA quartet of Daniels, McGinnis, Beaty & Cunningham.

What are your thoughts on that group & what puts Daniels above those 3?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#6 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 9, 2018 7:29 am

79th - Dan Issel
80th - Ben Wallace


Issel was a key contributor - anywhere from the 2nd best to 4th best player - on a championship team in the ABA and has incredibly consistent long-term production. It could be argued that his "prime" was 13 or 14 years long. In fact, he had a PER over 20.0 for twelve seasons, and in 15 seasons, his three lowest PERS were 17, 17, and 18.

In pts, rebs, asts, stls, and blocks, he is 34th all-time, but that includes a minus 20% penalty on his five seasons of ABA play. Really, he is about ten spots higher.

He was an All-Star from the age of 22-28 (seven times), but his legacy is tarnished by the fact that this only includes one NBA season.

In ten NBA seasons, his PER was 21.1. In five ABA seasons, it was 21.8

In the NBA, his WS/48 was .181. In the ABA, it was .182.

In those 15 seasons, Issel's lowest games played was 76, when he was 35 years old.

Basically, Issel is maybe the most consistent player in professional basketball history. Maybe that's why they called him "Horse."
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#7 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 1:47 pm

Thru post #6:

Ben Wallace - 1 (trex_8063)
Larry Nance - 1 (pandrade83)
Dan Issel - 1 (scabbarista)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


A little over 24 hours (like perhaps 27) left before this is pushed to runoff. Don't leave it to the last minute gents.....


Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

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Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#8 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 2:14 pm

Place holder will too to tonight.

Vote - Ben Wallace
4x DPOY. Best player on a title team (and likely outside of russel the only great one way defender with this claim....could be wrong).

Ok lets add

5x all nba which is pretty solid here and the bias against defenders vs scorers. More important these all nba's didn't start after or during the title run but in 02. With Bliff Robinson, Jackhouse, Atkins and Jon Barry types, he was all nba on a 50 win team. Now I get it, he had 278 blocks and lead the league there and he'd been the top rebounder the year before but still, it feels meaningful that people saw him already as an all nba guy and he added zero value offensively.

3x top 10 in the MVP voting again another area you don't see defensive guys getting credit for. Now while I didn't rank him this high, LONG ago we voted Mutombo in and his top MVP rating was 13th and his only spot on the rankings. The media makes mistakes but there's nothing about Wallace that makes me think he was getting any extra credit before the title (10th and 8th in mvp voting the two years before they won).

OK so his offense sucks but he's 16th in recorded history in offensive rebounds in an era where big men didn't go for them.

5 top 10 years in BPM

5 time top years of VORP

First in Defensive Wins Share 5 times!

130 playoff games, 8.3 VOPR, 5.3 BPM, 15.4 WS, 16.2 PER (kinda crazy given again not an offensive guy).

An odd one but 02-09 made at least the second around every single year. And nearly all ended in the conference finals.

Alt - Chris Webber

Worth noting, this is getting hard as imo right now all the players getting traction (other than Daniels) feel good here. Not sure about Tim this soon either, but I can see a good case. Anyway I think it's fun when there are 4-5 really good candidates all clustered sadly I won't have time to do a drive into this round or next. I really want to look closer at Nance and Issel. ABA issues with Issel and Nance's lack of playoff success are my biggest concerns here.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#9 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 2:39 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Place holder will too to tonight.

Vote - Ben Wallace
4x DPOY. Best player on a title team (and likely outside of russel the only great one way defender with this claim....could be wrong).

Alt - Chris Webber

Worth noting, this is getting hard as imo right now all the players getting traction (other than Daniels) feel good here. Not sure about Tim this soon either, but I can see a good case. Anyway I think it's fun when there are 4-5 really good candidates all clustered sadly I won't have time to do a drive into this round or next. I really want to look closer at Nance and Issel. ABA issues with Issel and Nance's lack of playoff success are my biggest concerns here.


Worth noting from the prior thread:

Nance has superior ws/48 vs worthy, basically equal per and marginally better bpm in the playoffs. I bring This up because worthy has a moniker of “big game James” - but even that is partially a function of the team success he enjoyed.

At best - unless we’re talking ABA/no longevity - our candidates will be the best players on successful ensembles (ie - nance).

And in those cases, I’m looking at individual playoff performances more so than team playoff success and nance acquits himself under that lens.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#10 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 3:08 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:Place holder will too to tonight.

Vote - Ben Wallace
4x DPOY. Best player on a title team (and likely outside of russel the only great one way defender with this claim....could be wrong).

Alt - Chris Webber

Worth noting, this is getting hard as imo right now all the players getting traction (other than Daniels) feel good here. Not sure about Tim this soon either, but I can see a good case. Anyway I think it's fun when there are 4-5 really good candidates all clustered sadly I won't have time to do a drive into this round or next. I really want to look closer at Nance and Issel. ABA issues with Issel and Nance's lack of playoff success are my biggest concerns here.


Worth noting from the prior thread:

Nance has superior ws/48 vs worthy, basically equal per and marginally better bpm in the playoffs. I bring This up because worthy has a moniker of “big game James” - but even that is partially a function of the team success he enjoyed.

At best - unless we’re talking ABA/no longevity - our candidates will be the best players on successful ensembles (ie - nance).

And in those cases, I’m looking at individual playoff performances more so than team playoff success and nance acquits himself under that lens.


The problem is Nance has 68 playoffs games and 34 came in two seasons. Makes it hard for me to judge Nance, so it isn't "big game worthy" vs "loser Nance" but more Worthy looks to be a good playoff guy. Nance is hard to draw a conclusion.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#11 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 3:54 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:Place holder will too to tonight.

Vote - Ben Wallace
4x DPOY. Best player on a title team (and likely outside of russel the only great one way defender with this claim....could be wrong).

Alt - Chris Webber

Worth noting, this is getting hard as imo right now all the players getting traction (other than Daniels) feel good here. Not sure about Tim this soon either, but I can see a good case. Anyway I think it's fun when there are 4-5 really good candidates all clustered sadly I won't have time to do a drive into this round or next. I really want to look closer at Nance and Issel. ABA issues with Issel and Nance's lack of playoff success are my biggest concerns here.


The problem is Nance has 68 playoffs games and 34 came in two seasons. Makes it hard for me to judge Nance, so it isn't "big game worthy" vs "loser Nance" but more Worthy looks to be a good playoff guy. Nance is hard to draw a conclusion.


I don’t find that to be a bad sample. It’s a season’s worth. Of the years you’re referencing he faced the showtime lakers and arguably the best Jordan Bulls team so we saw how he plays against the best of the best. We saw that he had minimal drop-off from the regular season and had equal or better performance than contemporaries who were heralded specifically for their playoff performance. That’s very solid - especially at this stage.

What kind of playoff sample are you realistically expecting/looking for at this juncture?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#12 » by penbeast0 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 4:10 pm

pandrade83 wrote: ...

At best - unless we’re talking ABA/no longevity - our candidates will be the best players on successful ensembles (ie - nance)....


Just curious, on what teams are you considering Nance the best player? I don't ever remember him as a face of a franchise guy but advanced metrics often show the hardworking defensive "roleplayer" as more key than popular opinion.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#13 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 5:17 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote: ...

At best - unless we’re talking ABA/no longevity - our candidates will be the best players on successful ensembles (ie - nance)....


Just curious, on what teams are you considering Nance the best player? I don't ever remember him as a face of a franchise guy but advanced metrics often show the hardworking defensive "roleplayer" as more key than popular opinion.



In Phoenix, after his rookie year, he leads the team in per, ws & bpm all years. Exception: 83 he is 2nd in per to Davis (19.1 vs 18.7) but Phoenix is -4.6 in d while lg avg on offense. Two of those teams could be considered successful by the standards of this stage (top 5 srs, wcf loss to lakers in 6). All of these years go to nance.

He also has a credible claim to #1 on the most successful team he ever played for - 92 Cleveland. He is #1 in ws and bpm. Daugherty beats him out in per. Due to injuries, he is clearly the best player on their 91 team which misses the playoffs.

The best regular season team he plays for is the 89 Cavs. He, ron Harper and mark price all have credible claims for #1. Price leads in ws and per while nance is 2nd in each. Harper leads in bpm while nance is 2nd. The team is +2.8 in offense vs -4.9 in defense lending credibility to the idea that nance is a more powerful defensive leader than price is offensive (anchor is too strong given the ensemble nature of it). Price also has a poor playoffs while nance and Harper more or less maintain their regular season success.

At the time, very young me thought he, Daugherty and price were equals per the eye test.

I think he has a concrete claim to being the best player in Phoenix and a credible claim to being the best player on their two best teams in Cleveland
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#14 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 5:34 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
The problem is Nance has 68 playoffs games and 34 came in two seasons. Makes it hard for me to judge Nance, so it isn't "big game worthy" vs "loser Nance" but more Worthy looks to be a good playoff guy. Nance is hard to draw a conclusion.


I don’t find that to be a bad sample. It’s a season’s worth. Of the years you’re referencing he faced the showtime lakers and arguably the best Jordan Bulls team so we saw how he plays against the best of the best. We saw that he had minimal drop-off from the regular season and had equal or better performance than contemporaries who were heralded specifically for their playoff performance. That’s very solid - especially at this stage.

What kind of playoff sample are you realistically expecting/looking for at this juncture?


You make a good point. I guess 2-3 years of multiple rounds would be better than this. But yeah, game count is fine I guess.

I guess the other issue is I always saw him as an after thought on the cleveland teams, a nice 3rd best guy. Never saw him on the suns.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 5:51 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote: ...

At best - unless we’re talking ABA/no longevity - our candidates will be the best players on successful ensembles (ie - nance)....


Just curious, on what teams are you considering Nance the best player? I don't ever remember him as a face of a franchise guy but advanced metrics often show the hardworking defensive "roleplayer" as more key than popular opinion.



In Phoenix, after his rookie year, he leads the team in per, ws & bpm all years. Exception: 83 he is 2nd in per to Davis (19.1 vs 18.7) but Phoenix is -4.6 in d while lg avg on offense. Two of those teams could be considered successful by the standards of this stage (top 5 srs, wcf loss to lakers in 6). All of these years go to nance.

He also has a credible claim to #1 on the most successful team he ever played for - 92 Cleveland. He is #1 in ws and bpm. Daugherty beats him out in per. Due to injuries, he is clearly the best player on their 91 team which misses the playoffs.

The best regular season team he plays for is the 89 Cavs. He, ron Harper and mark price all have credible claims for #1. Price leads in ws and per while nance is 2nd in each. Harper leads in bpm while nance is 2nd. The team is +2.8 in offense vs -4.9 in defense lending credibility to the idea that nance is a more powerful defensive leader than price is offensive (anchor is too strong given the ensemble nature of it). Price also has a poor playoffs while nance and Harper more or less maintain their regular season success.

At the time, very young me thought he, Daugherty and price were equals per the eye test.

I think he has a concrete claim to being the best player in Phoenix and a credible claim to being the best player on their two best teams in Cleveland


I think you can make a claim that Nance was the "most valuable rs player" to the '92 Cavs, on basis of only missing one game (whereas Daugherty missed nine). But otherwise it's pretty well a statistical wash, with Nance holding a small edge in BPM and efficiency differential, while Daugherty held the tiny-to-small edge in PER, WS/48, and mpg.......so it would be at best a very small edge to Nance (based entirely on those eight fewer missed games)........and this is only in the rs. In the playoffs Daugherty was clearly better, which doesn't totally rule out an argument that Nance was the team's best/most valuable player (but it's certainly tarnishes it a fair bit).


All of this said, I seem to recall the general perception (at least when everyone was healthy and playing) being that Nance was 3rd behind Price and Daugherty on those teams. Not that those public perceptions are always right (indeed they're frequently wrong); but I think we all need to be cautious about going directly from the statline, too.
This same type of statistical comparison would have it that Enes Kanter is better than Kristaps Porzingis, that John Wall is only the third-best player on the current Wizards (I'd ardently disagree with both of those premises); or that Steven Adams is only slightly behind Westbrook [and well ahead of Paul George] as the Thunder's 2nd-best player (which I think is at least very debatable). Just a few examples of where the numbers can lead us to a false conclusion.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#16 » by Owly » Tue Jan 9, 2018 7:23 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Just curious, on what teams are you considering Nance the best player? I don't ever remember him as a face of a franchise guy but advanced metrics often show the hardworking defensive "roleplayer" as more key than popular opinion.



In Phoenix, after his rookie year, he leads the team in per, ws & bpm all years. Exception: 83 he is 2nd in per to Davis (19.1 vs 18.7) but Phoenix is -4.6 in d while lg avg on offense. Two of those teams could be considered successful by the standards of this stage (top 5 srs, wcf loss to lakers in 6). All of these years go to nance.

He also has a credible claim to #1 on the most successful team he ever played for - 92 Cleveland. He is #1 in ws and bpm. Daugherty beats him out in per. Due to injuries, he is clearly the best player on their 91 team which misses the playoffs.

The best regular season team he plays for is the 89 Cavs. He, ron Harper and mark price all have credible claims for #1. Price leads in ws and per while nance is 2nd in each. Harper leads in bpm while nance is 2nd. The team is +2.8 in offense vs -4.9 in defense lending credibility to the idea that nance is a more powerful defensive leader than price is offensive (anchor is too strong given the ensemble nature of it). Price also has a poor playoffs while nance and Harper more or less maintain their regular season success.

At the time, very young me thought he, Daugherty and price were equals per the eye test.

I think he has a concrete claim to being the best player in Phoenix and a credible claim to being the best player on their two best teams in Cleveland


I think you can make a claim that Nance was the "most valuable rs player" to the '92 Cavs, on basis of only missing one game (whereas Daugherty missed nine). But otherwise it's pretty well a statistical wash, with Nance holding a small edge in BPM and efficiency differential, while Daugherty held the tiny-to-small edge in PER, WS/48, and mpg.......so it would be at best a very small edge to Nance (based entirely on those eight fewer missed games)........and this is only in the rs. In the playoffs Daugherty was clearly better, which doesn't totally rule out an argument that Nance was the team's best/most valuable player (but it's certainly tarnishes it a fair bit).


All of this said, I seem to recall the general perception (at least when everyone was healthy and playing) being that Nance was 3rd behind Price and Daugherty on those teams. Not that those public perceptions are always right (indeed they're frequently wrong); but I think we all need to be cautious about going directly from the statline, too.
This same type of statistical comparison would have it that Enes Kanter is better than Kristaps Porzingis, that John Wall is only the third-best player on the current Wizards (I'd ardently disagree with both of those premises); or that Steven Adams is only slightly behind Westbrook [and well ahead of Paul George] as the Thunder's 2nd-best player (which I think is at least very debatable). Just a few examples of where the numbers can lead us to a false conclusion.

The problem with the first and most egregious of those examples is that it - quite glaringly and obviously - goes in the opposite direction to what would happen with Nance versus Price/Daugherty.

Kanter is a no defense big man. His glaring non-boxscore flaw is defense. These threads have already noted Nance as graded a AAA defender (where shot-blocking was a seperate category), where the other two were not noteworthy defenders (not to say bad, just not noteworthy).

Leaving aside the possibility of such things (Kanter perfoming better than Porzingis) being viable over a small sample and moving onto general issues of star status perception raised here (and by dhsilv2 and contemplated by Penbeast), we know, we know that the conventional wisdom has always skewed towards scorers as the stars, we know this. We know that rarely turning the ball over isn't something that will be highlighted. Saying Price and Daugherty were bigger stars, sure. If we were voting for the biggest stars Carmelo should have been in a while ago. PER is now broadly recognised to over-credit scorers and what was one of the points Hollinger would hammer home in his books is ... we are [or rather, conventional wisdom is] overvaluing scorers (for instance showing that a Jalen Rose type player was overrated). Where the player in question has a star profile (helps if you were a high draft pick, and you aren't a bench scorer - though even then Crawford gets awards, above far better players) scoring has been significantly more prized in "star" perception than even in PER. Nance was a guy who opted not to defend his slam-dunk contest crown and was a late first round pick - he didn't take a lot of shots. This isn't Kanter (or one of a few modern day centers, perhaps playing with what we'd think of as two small forwards historically), or some such guy, an outlier-type "gaming" the metrics or things that make you a "star", he's the reverse.

And this isn't even to say that I necessarily support Nance as the best player on all those teams (well, I'd think the Cleveland ones would be the ones in question), I would want to look at the numbers and ideally watch some (hopefully representative) games. But the idea that "a younger me didn't percieve him as star" should be an impediment where Nance has been noted as a AAA defender in this project and a AA to AAA intangiables guy last time (viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1367330&start=20#start_here post 22) and a guy noteworthily more than his "star power" ... well, I struggle with it.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#17 » by pandrade83 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 9:34 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Just curious, on what teams are you considering Nance the best player? I don't ever remember him as a face of a franchise guy but advanced metrics often show the hardworking defensive "roleplayer" as more key than popular opinion.



I think you can make a claim that Nance was the "most valuable rs player" to the '92 Cavs, on basis of only missing one game (whereas Daugherty missed nine). But otherwise it's pretty well a statistical wash, with Nance holding a small edge in BPM and efficiency differential, while Daugherty held the tiny-to-small edge in PER, WS/48, and mpg.......so it would be at best a very small edge to Nance (based entirely on those eight fewer missed games)........and this is only in the rs. In the playoffs Daugherty was clearly better, which doesn't totally rule out an argument that Nance was the team's best/most valuable player (but it's certainly tarnishes it a fair bit).


All of this said, I seem to recall the general perception (at least when everyone was healthy and playing) being that Nance was 3rd behind Price and Daugherty on those teams. Not that those public perceptions are always right (indeed they're frequently wrong); but I think we all need to be cautious about going directly from the statline, too.
This same type of statistical comparison would have it that Enes Kanter is better than Kristaps Porzingis, that John Wall is only the third-best player on the current Wizards (I'd ardently disagree with both of those premises); or that Steven Adams is only slightly behind Westbrook [and well ahead of Paul George] as the Thunder's 2nd-best player (which I think is at least very debatable). Just a few examples of where the numbers can lead us to a false conclusion.


So for starters, I’ve used language that indicates I’m conceding that the claim for best player on the Cleveland teams is more tenuous than Phoenix (that’s clear cut I think).

I think your Daugherty vs nance points are fair but it’s worth keeping in mind 1) availability is a skill 2) while there’s no rapm data for those teams, nance fits the type who is more likely to succeed in rapm (superb defender, impeccable to economy, takes nothing off the table offensively) closer than
Daugherty (who wasn’t a strong defender and played center). Obviously this isn’t provable and it’s pure speculation but as previously noted, nance has robust wowy results.

Getting into your stats comparison:
It’s not like there’s an impact stat I’m shying away from and I am referencing my own eye test of a much younger (and less informed) me. Both of those things knock a kanter > kp argument down. Not getting into the wall thing because he has had a down year thus far.

I get what you’re getting at, but those specific comparisons aren’t apples to apples. Many of the things that nance excels in are more clearly recognized by current metrics and we understand their value much more than we did 25 years ago (to economy, solid spacing capabilities for a big of the day, defense, ts%).

Our current understanding of the game values nance more than was recognized 25 years ago and i don’t think we can say the same wrt Daugherty (so-so interior defender). You can still think someone else was better - but the viability to the claim nance is better exists and his impact “likely” goes beyond the box score.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#18 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 9:35 pm

I realize the glaring flaw in the statistical argument of Kanter vs Porzingis; that flaw doesn't really apply to most of the other mentions within that same sentence, though.

wrt Nance having a lot of non-boxscore defensive impact: did he? I didn't see the mentioned defensive grade [OUTSIDE of blocked shot] of AA-AAA. I couldn't remember if he was, for example, an exceptional pnr defender, and I thought he had a tendency to occasionally be a little soft as a low post defender, shy away from rough contact, etc......and that the bulk of his defensive value came from his help D/shot-blocking (a fair bit of of which is accounted for in the boxscore). Maybe I'm wrong there.

We don't consistently see massive defensive improvements associated with his presence. Yes, the Cavs hit a -4.9 rDRTG in the first full season with Nance ('89)......but the following year (when Ron Harper---an excellent defensive wing----goes down), they fall to a -0.9 rDRTG. Nance also missed 20 games that year, which accounts for part of the falloff.......but not all that much: they were a -1.3 rDRTG with him, +0.4 rDRTG without him. It's suggestive that the loss of Harper was felt more acutely on the defensive end.

And fwiw, in that -4.9 rDRTG year in '89, they were actually a -4.6 rDRTG in the 73 games with him, -7.2 rDRTG in the nine games he missed. Likely a lot of noise due to smaller sample size there, but again it's not screaming massive defensive impact.
Their offense showed larger changes (to the good) associated with Nance in both '89 and '90, though.

In '87 his absence is certainly associated with a huge falloff defensively. It's just not something that appears super-consistent throughout his career. The offensive improvements are actually more consistent [and often larger] in the WOWY studies I've done, which maybe indicates we should be praising his offensive game (the efficient middle-volume scoring, low turnovers, solid passing, stretching the floor a little in his later years, etc) more than his defense.


And the potential explanations (in the post you---Owly---linked) regarding his lack of accolades, as well as all the descriptions of his intangible/leadership qualities were enlightening for me.

Anyway, I'm coming away from this thread a little more impressed with Larry Nance. Am actually thinking of changing my alternate vote to him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#19 » by LA Bird » Tue Jan 9, 2018 9:51 pm

1. Ben Wallace
Peaked as one of the greatest defensive players in the modern era and led the Pistons to a championship with the most dominant (non-Russell) playoffs defense. Both the box score and non box score defensive stats rate Wallace among the GOATs. He is a poor offensive player but nowhere close to being the worst ever (that title probably goes to Manute Bol). Big Ben is mobile enough to crash the offensive boards well without sacrificing much on transition defense and he has low turnovers for a big in part because he very rarely commits offensive fouls.

2. Larry Nance
Solid longevity. Consistently a great defender and shotblocker throughout his career and peaked as a nice offensive player in 1987 (22.5 ppg, 3.4 apg, 2.2 tov, 60.7% TS). Playoffs sample is not large but that's not much of a problem for me.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #79 

Post#20 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 9, 2018 9:53 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
I get what you’re getting at, but those specific comparisons aren’t apples to apples. Many of the things that nance excels in are more clearly recognized by current metrics and we understand their value much more than we did 25 years ago (to economy, solid spacing capabilities for a big of the day, defense, ts%).


fwiw, thought of one other teammate comparison where the statistical profile may lead us astray (and which can't be brushed off by saying "yeah, but so and so is a horrible team defender", as with Kanter/Porzingis): DeAndre vs Blake on the current Clippers.

DeAndre is 20.2 PER, .196 WS/48, +1.8 BPM, +23 efficiency differential in 32.5 mpg.
Blake is 20.8 PER, .132 WS/48, +2.9 BPM, +/- 0 efficiency differential in 34.3 mpg.

That comparison would indicate roughly a wash [if not marginally in DeAndre's favour], and DeAndre isn't a poor team defender. But I believe most of us would say without hesitation that Blake is the best player on that team (when healthy/playing).

btw, I'm not necessarily aiming this at the on-going debate on Nance. I'm......well, I think you already get what I'm saying. We're all stat-geeks, and as such we all crunch a lot of numbers; I'm merely making a cautionary statement about blind trust in them (to be clear: not accusing you of doing; rather just aiming this at the forum at large).
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