'17-'18 POY discussion

[dontcalltimeout]

I hate to bury a guy off just three games but Lillard has really been dreadful. Per synergy, he has run 79 Pick and Rolls (26 per game) resulting in a PPP of 0.418 He just has not been able to figure it out.

His eFG% on these plays has been 17.9% and turned it over 27.5% of the time. When he passes it out it's not much better. If that's a slump it's the slump to end all slumps and it's come at the worst time.

[Outside]

I hate to bury a guy off just three games but Lillard has really been dreadful. Per synergy, he has run 79 Pick and Rolls (26 per game) resulting in a PPP of 0.418 He just has not been able to figure it out.

His eFG% on these plays has been 17.9% and turned it over 27.5% of the time. When he passes it out it's not much better. If that's a slump it's the slump to end all slumps and it's come at the worst time.

Those are some damning numbers. Great players figure out whatever the defense throws at you. Lillard hasn't. His regular season was a big step up, but in three games in the postseason, he's taken two giant steps back.

[Mystical Apples]

I hate to bury a guy off just three games but Lillard has really been dreadful. Per synergy, he has run 79 Pick and Rolls (26 per game) resulting in a PPP of 0.418 He just has not been able to figure it out.

His eFG% on these plays has been 17.9% and turned it over 27.5% of the time. When he passes it out it's not much better. If that's a slump it's the slump to end all slumps and it's come at the worst time.

An important point that seems to fit the RS pattern of pick & roll dependent teams struggling in close game situations. Charlotte of course being the prime example of their dearth of individual creators getting exposed by game-planning to remove Walker's pnr.

I'd add Teague to Lillard as another PO example. Between the two I think we can safely credit AD and Capela for creating broken possessions after blowing up PnR. That Minnesota and Portland oftentimes play at least 1 non-spacing big isn't exactly helpful either, nor in the case of Portland Nurkic's turnover tendencies in the post.

[eminence]

Rising:
Horford - Been great in the first two, really hoping for a Celtics vs Sixers 2nd round.
Simmons - Masterful performance from a rookie.
KD/Dray - Don't look quite as good as they can, but they've certainly improved on their regular season selves as they thrash the Spurs. Fairly expected.
Jrue - Think he's played his best yet in the playoffs, was Allstar caliber for the RS, but has stepped it up since.

Falling:
Towns - Those first two games were dreadful, some is on his teammates, but some is on him.
Lillard - Yep, agree with others, this series has buried his chances barring a miraculous turnaround.

Everyone else I'd say I'm holding fairly steady on. Curry continuing to drop as he misses more time.

[eminence]

And after thinking on it a bit more I'd say there's a non-trivial chance Jokic makes my ballot.

[NinjaSheppard]

Matchups are so important.

I think if we drew Utah instead of Portland we'd have gotten swept and they'd have neutralized our offense and people would be saying very different things. Meanwhile Portland owned OKC this year and you could have seen a lot of "Has Dame arrived storylines".

Really disagree with people on Pels without Boogie. I've had a few moments where I wanted him gone because he can be so frustrating but our offense has troubling signs without him. Boogie creates so many open shots for teammates and draws a lot of free throws. We are starved for three point shooting and free throws without him. He suffered from bad three point defense luck before he got hurt, Jrue starting the season off like he lost his basketball ability Space Jam style and from bad basketball players like Cunningham and Jameer Nelson being in the rotation. Pelicans were 7-1 in their last 8 with him and I think we would have gone on a Utah like tear if he had stayed healthy since the team planned to make a trade for a rotation player either way.

Gentry is going to have to figure out how to maximize the roster next year like Houston did with Paul/Harden this year.

[Mystical Apples]

Rising:
Horford - Been great in the first two, really hoping for a Celtics vs Sixers 2nd round.
Simmons - Masterful performance from a rookie.
KD/Dray - Don't look quite as good as they can, but they've certainly improved on their regular season selves as they thrash the Spurs. Fairly expected.
Jrue - Think he's played his best yet in the playoffs, was Allstar caliber for the RS, but has stepped it up since.

Falling:
Towns - Those first two games were dreadful, some is on his teammates, but some is on him.
Lillard - Yep, agree with others, this series has buried his chances barring a miraculous turnaround.

Everyone else I'd say I'm holding fairly steady on. Curry continuing to drop as he misses more time.

Horford really doesn't get enough credit.

[ShotCreator]

Oladipo's overall activity in the series has been insane. He's beaten traps with his dribble, living in the lane and even when he gives it up it creates 4 on 3s.

Then his defense....3.3 steals per 36 in this pretty slow paced series.

His man defense is just suffocating. The only guy who could seemingly get shots on him is JR due to making crazy off dribble shots, and LeBron because LeBron.

The guy is sporting a ludicrous +25 net rating and +50 net on/off. 2 game sample I know, but good lord god almighty. That's just scary.

I don't think Cleveland is equipped to adequately deal with this guy(bold statement given the results I know). Way too quick for most anyone on the roster, and even when he sees that help D he's just exploding over guys. His shot making is deadly enough to be uber aggressive when he comes off screens. Just a nightmare.

[Clyde Frazier]

Thoughts on kawhi not being with the spurs for these playoff games? Does it make sense that he just isn't traveling because of his rehab, or is it a sign that his time with the Spurs is over?

[bondom34]

Talked about it in the OT thread but I'm good with it.

[Dr Spaceman]

Thoughts on kawhi not being with the spurs for these playoff games? Does it make sense that he just isn't traveling because of his rehab, or is it a sign that his time with the Spurs is over?

My take is in the OT thread. Essentially I don’t believe there can be any positive end to this situation. If Kawhi were unintentionally creating a rift between himself and the team they’d clear it up behind closed doors. I can’t imagine both sides wouldn’t do everything they can to repair this relationship if they want it to last. That Spurs keep making public comments calling him out and he seems to not have any interest in repairing this suggests an imminent breakup.

Put another way: if Kawhi was planning to fix the issue, I don’t know why he isn’t doing it right now. The Spurs sure seem to be reaching out.

[Dr Spaceman]

Matchups are so important.

I think if we drew Utah instead of Portland we'd have gotten swept and they'd have neutralized our offense and people would be saying very different things. Meanwhile Portland owned OKC this year and you could have seen a lot of "Has Dame arrived storylines".

Really disagree with people on Pels without Boogie. I've had a few moments where I wanted him gone because he can be so frustrating but our offense has troubling signs without him. Boogie creates so many open shots for teammates and draws a lot of free throws. We are starved for three point shooting and free throws without him. He suffered from bad three point defense luck before he got hurt, Jrue starting the season off like he lost his basketball ability Space Jam style and from bad basketball players like Cunningham and Jameer Nelson being in the rotation. Pelicans were 7-1 in their last 8 with him and I think we would have gone on a Utah like tear if he had stayed healthy since the team planned to make a trade for a rotation player either way.

Gentry is going to have to figure out how to maximize the roster next year like Houston did with Paul/Harden this year.

To be honest I don’t think it’s the matchup. I really do think NOP is just that good. They might not beat Utah, because Utah is also an excellent team, but they along with GSW and HOU make up the top tier of West teams IMO (although GSW and HOU are in a class of their own).
I didn’t think this way back in February, but I was far more convinced by Utah and NOP’s run to end the RS than I was Portland.

Te: Boogie, to me this is the thing though. NOP went from underperforming their talent level to vastly over performing it and to me it all comes down to identity. They played at the fastest pace in NBA history and built a dribble drive guard attack that was unstoppable with Davis eating up all the space on the interior and Mirotic spacing the floor. Two smart guards who will push the ball down the defense’s throat and slice into the lane and make plays creatively has turned into an unstoppable attack when you have finishers like that in the front court. Frankly I think this is exactly the type of team they wanted to be when they hired Gentry.

So the question to me is not how good or how talented Boogie is, but rather how he fits into that scheme. The fact is, Boogie is an unnaturally large man, even by basketball player standards. A dude that size just needs a more half-court, slower paced type of game. To be clear so have most volume scoring big men in NBA history, especially the guy Boogie is so often compares to, Shaq. But Davis is not like that. He is a wholly unique talent in NBA history, and right now the team has found a style that maximizes what he can do. Maybe the suffer a bit in terms of half court creation, but it’s not exactly holding them back, is it?

Kevin Love and Tim Duncan lost a ton of weight when their teams transitioned to a more up tempo attack. It’s just what you have to do to keep up with a rapidly evolving league. If Boogie shows up to Camp 30 pounds lighter next season, I’ll be really excited about what they can build for the team’s future. As it stands,though, he’s the piece that doesn’t fit, and frankly after seeing how well the team has performed recently the onus is squarely on him to mold himself into the player NOP needs.

[CBA]

I think you're really overrating NOP. They post-Boogie run wasn't impressive, mostly beating up on bad teams and squeaking by some decent teams like the Spurs and Clippers. In fact, they ended up with the lowest SRS of any of the WC playoff teams. Even with the best player in Davis, I don't believe they would win a series against Utah or OKC who make up that second tier of quality teams.

[Ballerhogger]

Right now my top player is Harden and my next guy is AD then Lebron

[Ballerhogger]

I think you're really overrating NOP. They post-Boogie run wasn't impressive, mostly beating up on bad teams and squeaking by some decent teams like the Spurs and Clippers. In fact, they ended up with the lowest SRS of any of the WC playoff teams. Even with the best player in Davis, I don't believe they would win a series against Utah or OKC who make up that second tier of quality teams.

They could beat Utah , Holiday and Mirtoc are playing really well right now . I think they got shot against Houston . Caplea vs AD

[dhsilv2]

Simmons can just throw a damn rocket pass like just nobody I've ever seen. He's so accurate and hits shooters just so well. I'm sure i'm a bit lost on the moment, but he's just something else. Even in a somewhat poor game by his standards, he just makes so many wonderful plays.

[Clyde Frazier]

Simmons can just throw a damn rocket pass like just nobody I've ever seen. He's so accurate and hits shooters just so well. I'm sure i'm a bit lost on the moment, but he's just something else. Even in a somewhat poor game by his standards, he just makes so many wonderful plays.

The one thing I don't think we can overstate is that this guy is a generational passer. When you throw in the fact that he's 6'10", he's able to see angles and pull off passes that other guys can't. It's a deadly combo.

[therealbig3]

I may be getting caught up in the moment, but I’m thinking Davis vs peak KG is a legit discussion at this point. He’s not the defender that KG was...but offensively, he’s almost impossible to stop from getting his, and it’s almost all off ball, from cuts, PnR, PnP, and offensive rebounds. Not the passer that Garnett was...but does that offset the fact that Davis just seems much better as a scorer, without being ball-dominant whatsoever?

Not to mention that although he’s not KG defensively, he’s still one of the best defenders in the league imo.

[Joey Wheeler]

I may be getting caught up in the moment, but I’m thinking Davis vs peak KG is a legit discussion at this point. He’s not the defender that KG was...but offensively, he’s almost impossible to stop from getting his, and it’s almost all off ball, from cuts, PnR, PnP, and offensive rebounds. Not the passer that Garnett was...but does that offset the fact that Davis just seems much better as a scorer, without being ball-dominant whatsoever?

Not to mention that although he’s not KG defensively, he’s still one of the best defenders in the league imo.

I don't know why you think his defense doesn't stack up to Garnett. He's a great rim protector, great defending the pick and roll and he's the best big man I've ever seen defending in space; usually when a big gets switched on a Lillard/Harden/Curry, etc... it's a mismatch to be exploited but Davis is such an athletic freak that it's not really a mismatch. Garnett might have been better on that end than AD is right now but we're definitely not talking about a significant gap if so.

[therealbig3]

I may be getting caught up in the moment, but I’m thinking Davis vs peak KG is a legit discussion at this point. He’s not the defender that KG was...but offensively, he’s almost impossible to stop from getting his, and it’s almost all off ball, from cuts, PnR, PnP, and offensive rebounds. Not the passer that Garnett was...but does that offset the fact that Davis just seems much better as a scorer, without being ball-dominant whatsoever?

Not to mention that although he’s not KG defensively, he’s still one of the best defenders in the league imo.

I don't know why you think his defense doesn't stack up to Garnett. He's a great rim protector, great defending the pick and roll and he's the best big man I've ever seen defending in space; usually when a big gets switched on a Lillard/Harden/Curry, etc... it's a mismatch to be exploited but Davis is such an athletic freak that it's not really a mismatch. Garnett might have been better on that end than AD is right now but we're definitely not talking about a significant gap if so.

Nah, Garnett’s defensive awareness and IQ were pretty clearly on another level compared to Davis at this point. Garnett is the best PnR defender of all time, and was still the best defender in the game despite getting older, because his defensive IQ was just that good. Frequently diagnosed offensive plays before they even happened and directed his teammates on how to defend the action. This was well-documented.

Davis just isn’t on that level...a lot of what makes him great is how much of a physical freak he is...Garnett was a physical freak that was also the smartest post-Russell defender ever.

KG himself was also frequently tasked with defending perimeter players as their primary defender, not just on switches. He entered the league as a SF after all. He also had a well publicized matchup against T-Mac one game after he had already made the switch to PF full time and basically shut him down. I don’t see Davis as being any more physically capable than prime KG tbh.