'17-'18 POY discussion

[eminence]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

Those 6 (not Roberson) are the ones I'd tag as serious contenders right now. Order would probably be:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Butler
4. Giannis
5. Westbrook
6. CP3

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

CP3 over Kemba? CP3 has been great don't get me wrong but he has a deep team full of great players (Harden, Capela, EG) and he's only played 33 games out of 50+.

We handle injuries a bit differently, if a player is healthy I usually project them forward as healthy for the rest of the season. In a "if the season ended tomorrow" type scenario CP3/Curry would both drop.

[eminence]

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

Cant disagree more strongly. This is well beyond coasting, LeBron is at the point where his play is actively huritng his team (-9 net rating this month). He might honestly get more credit from me if he had just sat out January. Coasting is coasting but the Cavs look like they won’t finish above .500 at the current pace.

Yeah, alright was probably an overestimate (for LeBron at least), but it still rings true for me. If they somehow turn it on again and steamroll the East I simply won't care except as a tie-breaker type thing.

[CBA]

^ Just an FYI, but OKC isn't much better than last year despite the apparent talent upgrade. They have a lower winning percentage and their SRS isn't a great deal higher than it was last year.

It's actually bizarre to see Westbrook in people's top 5 for the year. Even recency bias doesn't account for it considering they've been playing poorly.

Anyways, right now I have Harden first then Curry, Butler, Giannis, Lebron, Durant and Paul shuffling around below.

They certainly are better this year. Their point differential has gone from a .500 team to a 50 win one.

And I’m not sold on Russ in the top 5 either, but he’s played 20 more games than Paul this year and I’m not going to pretend that doesn’t matter.

I pointed out that their SRS has gone up 2 points but that's not an appreciable difference considering their win% has gone down and they're not even a guarantee to make the playoffs, especially considering the talent they added this summer.

Westbrook has been more on the level of Lillard and Irving (possibly worse) than Harden and Curry.

[bondom34]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

+1 to +3 isn't much better... A lower win % isn't much better... It's closer to noise.

And playing well after a poor start is the definition recency bias. Taking a view of the full season with context, I don't see Westbrook as a top 5 player.

That is actually a quite large jump.

And no, it's taking the entire season, recency bias would have him higher than 5th. Win percentage isn't as indicative of team strength.

Since 12/1 (which isn't recent, it's over 2 months), he's got a better on court net rating than Harden, averaging 27/11/10 on 46 percent FG and OKC was 22-12. That's a large portion of games played where he's been at that level.

[bondom34]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

Those 6 (not Roberson) are the ones I'd tag as serious contenders right now. Order would probably be:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Butler
4. Giannis
5. Westbrook
6. CP3

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

Just took a walk and was thinking of these guys. I'd toss AD and Derozan in top 10 too.

[bondom34]

^ Just an FYI, but OKC isn't much better than last year despite the apparent talent upgrade. They have a lower winning percentage and their SRS isn't a great deal higher than it was last year.

It's actually bizarre to see Westbrook in people's top 5 for the year. Even recency bias doesn't account for it considering they've been playing poorly.

Anyways, right now I have Harden first then Curry, Butler, Giannis, Lebron, Durant and Paul shuffling around below.

They certainly are better this year. Their point differential has gone from a .500 team to a 50 win one.

And I’m not sold on Russ in the top 5 either, but he’s played 20 more games than Paul this year and I’m not going to pretend that doesn’t matter.

I pointed out that their SRS has gone up 2 points but that's not an appreciable difference considering their win% has gone down and they're not even a guarantee to make the playoffs, especially considering the talent they added this summer.

Westbrook has been more on the level of Lillard and Irving (possibly worse) than Harden and Curry.

That's...worse than a stretch, its just incorrect.

And again, saying win percentage negates SRS is also incorrect, thats not how it works.

[E-Balla]

Those 6 (not Roberson) are the ones I'd tag as serious contenders right now. Order would probably be:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Butler
4. Giannis
5. Westbrook
6. CP3

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

CP3 over Kemba? CP3 has been great don't get me wrong but he has a deep team full of great players (Harden, Capela, EG) and he's only played 33 games out of 50+.

We handle injuries a bit differently, if a player is healthy I usually project them forward as healthy for the rest of the season. In a "if the season ended tomorrow" type scenario CP3/Curry would both drop.

I'd still take 82 games of Kemba over 65 of CP3 but that makes a lot more sense.

[Dr Spaceman]

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

Cant disagree more strongly. This is well beyond coasting, LeBron is at the point where his play is actively huritng his team (-9 net rating this month). He might honestly get more credit from me if he had just sat out January. Coasting is coasting but the Cavs look like they won’t finish above .500 at the current pace.

Yeah, alright was probably an overestimate (for LeBron at least), but it still rings true for me. If they somehow turn it on again and steamroll the East I simply won't care except as a tie-breaker type thing.

I mean to be honest I don’t know where I’ll be at with all this in June. If we get a 17 quality playoff run (team and individual) then I might be willing to just write it all off.

But man. This collapse is just unlike anything I’ve seen before, and it’s in no small part because LeBron himself just either doesn’t care or doesn’t have it. I don’t see this ending well.

[bondom34]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

Spit balling other awards, Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP and Stevens then Spo for coach. Haven't thought on 6th man yet.

[The-Power]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

I'd definitely have Markkanen up there with the latter two guys, and I'd have him ahead of Kuzma as well.

[dhsilv2]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

Spit balling other awards, Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP and Stevens then Spo for coach. Haven't thought on 6th man yet.

No way they give it to Derozan after putting him on the all nba team last year.

[bondom34]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

I'd definitely have Markkanen up there with the latter two guys, and I'd have him ahead of Kuzma as well.

Totally forgot Markkanen, good call. I don't know I have him over those 2 but he's up there. This class really has been good and we haven't gotten to some other low key guys either.

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

Spit balling other awards, Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP and Stevens then Spo for coach. Haven't thought on 6th man yet.

No way they give it to Derozan after putting him on the all nba team last year.

Yeah, not saying he's 1st but we usually vote for top 3 at season's end and I think I may give him a nod at 3 just because he's impressed me so much thus far.

[E-Balla]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

Spit balling other awards, Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP and Stevens then Spo for coach. Haven't thought on 6th man yet.

KP ain't close to MIP. His defense is improved but offensively he's the same guy.

[CBA]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

+1 to +3 isn't much better... A lower win % isn't much better... It's closer to noise.

And playing well after a poor start is the definition recency bias. Taking a view of the full season with context, I don't see Westbrook as a top 5 player.

That is actually a quite large jump.

And no, it's taking the entire season, recency bias would have him higher than 5th. Win percentage isn't as indicative of team strength.

Since 12/1 (which isn't recent, it's over 2 months), he's got a better on court net rating than Harden, averaging 27/11/10 on 46 percent FG and OKC was 22-12. That's a large portion of games played where he's been at that level.

+1 to +3 is a very disappointing improvement considering the talent OKC added. That they are losing more games than last year is even more disappointing. Westbrook is partly responsible for that disappointment.

I think the point of this project is to take the larger view, not simply the best 30 game stretch of a player's season. Overall, Westbrook's performance hasn't been nearly as impressive as last year. Again, he hasn't played at the level of the top tier stars.

[bondom34]

+1 to +3 isn't much better... A lower win % isn't much better... It's closer to noise.

And playing well after a poor start is the definition recency bias. Taking a view of the full season with context, I don't see Westbrook as a top 5 player.

That is actually a quite large jump.

And no, it's taking the entire season, recency bias would have him higher than 5th. Win percentage isn't as indicative of team strength.

Since 12/1 (which isn't recent, it's over 2 months), he's got a better on court net rating than Harden, averaging 27/11/10 on 46 percent FG and OKC was 22-12. That's a large portion of games played where he's been at that level.

+1 to +3 is a very disappointing improvement considering the talent OKC added. That they are losing more games than last year is even more disappointing. Westbrook is partly responsible for that disappointment.

I think the point of this project is to take the larger view, not simply the best 30 game stretch of a player's season. Overall, Westbrook's performance hasn't been nearly as impressive as last year. Again, he hasn't played at the level of the top tier stars.

I don't think that's disappointing to anyone reasonable. And the win loss record shows as much, they overachieved to SRS last year, they shouldn't have been projected to win more than low 50s max this year. Westbrook has been by far the best player and certainly top 5 worthy as much as anyone noted. He's been better than any of the guys you said were on his level by a good margin.

And that is the point of the project. But 35 of 45 games IS the larger view. You seem focused on the very early season smaller view and literally the opposite of what you claim.

[bondom34]

Seems ROY is Simmons/Mithell then either Tatum or Kuzma to me.

Spit balling other awards, Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP and Stevens then Spo for coach. Haven't thought on 6th man yet.

KP ain't close to MIP. His defense is improved but offensively he's the same guy.

May have to dig more into his numbers, thought he made more a leap early on.

[The-Power]

Dipo/Porzingis/Derozan I like for MIP

Oladipo seems to be the clear favorite at this point, I agree.

Porzingis? Well, not for me. Started hot but has cooled down significantly and he still lacks the ability to get his points within the flow of the offense while being on and off defensively as well (improved yes, but he's still far from reaching his potential there). DeRozan has been better but MIP? I don't know, I wouldn't feel comfortable with him getting this award. If we're looking at accomplished players like him – even though I've never been high on him at all, but he did get NBA honors – we might as well throw Giannis' name into the ring (which I wouldn't like either). Or Butler.

I feel like Drummond definitely deserves a mention and if only for being what feels like the first big ever to go from terrible to actually solid (for standards of big men) at the line along with responding well to a larger playmaking role. What about Capela? He looks even better this year but how much of it is genuine improvement and how much is playing alongside even better players?

I'd also like to mention Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Spencer Dinwiddie. Both players still haven't been in the league for long, and are therefore not my favorites for this award, but I wouldn't necessarily have expected their contributions this year. Another mention is Mirotic. He hasn't played enough games which makes him unlikely to win; but in the games he actually played it looked like he finally figured it out (of course he might come back to earth soon).

Sleeper pick: Darren Collison. I can't say that I have seen enough of Indiana to judge him properly but from what I have seen – and judging by the numbers – he seems to really have found a way to contribute in the best possible way for this team. Appears to be the best season of his career thus far at the age of 30 and I really like players who contribute efficiently to their team's success (his turnover numbers are insanely good; best efficiency of his career and overall really good efficiency; career highs in 2P%, 3P% and FT% all in the same year while not having less on-ball duties). Maybe Indiana fans can chime in here but he'd feel like a feel-good pick for this award.

[CBA]

That is actually a quite large jump.

And no, it's taking the entire season, recency bias would have him higher than 5th. Win percentage isn't as indicative of team strength.

Since 12/1 (which isn't recent, it's over 2 months), he's got a better on court net rating than Harden, averaging 27/11/10 on 46 percent FG and OKC was 22-12. That's a large portion of games played where he's been at that level.

+1 to +3 is a very disappointing improvement considering the talent OKC added. That they are losing more games than last year is even more disappointing. Westbrook is partly responsible for that disappointment.

I think the point of this project is to take the larger view, not simply the best 30 game stretch of a player's season. Overall, Westbrook's performance hasn't been nearly as impressive as last year. Again, he hasn't played at the level of the top tier stars.

I don't think that's disappointing to anyone reasonable. And the win loss record shows as much, they overachieved to SRS last year, they shouldn't have been projected to win more than low 50s max this year. Westbrook has been by far the best player and certainly top 5 worthy as much as anyone noted. He's been better than any of the guys you said were on his level by a good margin.

And that is the point of the project. But 35 of 45 games IS the larger view. You seem focused on the very early season smaller view and literally the opposite of what you claim.

Saying OKC's season hasn't been disappointing is so far from reality I don't really see any reason in continuing to address the point.

Westbrook has played in 54 games. Considering all 54 of those games is mathematically taking into account a larger view than 34. Again, no reason in continuing to argue this.

Lillard is far ahead in WS/48 and about equal in ORPM. Kyrie is far ahead in WS/48 and about equal in ORPM while leading a superior team with less talent. They've been superior offensive players and are no worse than Westbrook defensively.

I really don't see how anyone can believe Westbrook has been better than than those two by "a good margin" without an obsessive focus on usage and rebounds.

[bondom34]

Saying OKC's season hasn't been disappointing is so far from reality I don't really see any reason in continuing to address the point.

Westbrook has played in 54 games. Considering all 54 of those games is mathematically taking into account a larger view than 34. Again, no reason in continuing to argue this.

Lillard is far ahead in WS/48 and about equal in ORPM. Kyrie is far ahead in WS/48 and about equal in ORPM while leading a superior team with less talent. They've been superior offensive players and are no worse than Westbrook defensively.

I really don't see how anyone can believe Westbrook has been better than than those two by "a good margin" without an obsessive focus on usage and rebounds.

I don't see that at all. I had them 4th in the west preseason. Right now they're 5th. I thought they were around this SRS wise. I don't think anyone reasonable had them better than 4th.

And using the large majority of the season would be a larger view than focusing on the first month of the year. I don't see a reason to argue this though you have with everyone.

I don't know a credible person measuring single season WS/48 as an individual metric for POY. Westbrook's team has been better than Lillard's and his offensive lift has been greater. Kyrie's team is pretty clearly better, as is shown by on/off They're a plus team when he's on the bench. Lillard's team is clearly worse offensively and he's certainly no better on defense. Kyrie's team is actually winning more based on defense, and he hasn't had the same overall impact, he's still a worse defender and offensive player.

I really don't see how he's been close to either of those 2, though you're the only one here who thinks that's so. And bringing up usage and rebounds seems off especially given you could use the same point for Harden.

Heck even the on/off splits :
Curry +11.5
Westbrook +11.2
Irving +5
Harden +5.2

Irving's team is just deeper.

Team success and individual play are not related.

[dhsilv2]

I think people have forgotten how weak the OKC bench was expected to be going into this year and likely are overrating melo.