RealGM 2017 Top 100 #88 (Terry Porter)

[trex_8063]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. Ben Wallace
80. Dan Issel
81. Larry Nance
82. James Worthy
83. Chris Webber
84. Rasheed Wallace
85. Dennis Rodman
86. Horace Grant
87. Elton Brand
88. ???

Begin...

Spoiler:

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

[dhsilv2]

For fun a few comparisons I'd like to see discussion on.

1. Porter | Hardaway | Sharman (maybe?)
2. Cheeks | Mookie
3. And not sure who but we need a few of the volume scorers getting mentions.

Basically, who was the best in similar roles among those coming up. I think it'll help with where we place them in the project.

[trex_8063]

1st vote: Carmelo Anthony
(edited)
An impact study of Melo is a little bit of a mixed bag (skewing toward "lower than expected": just so we don't embark on another semantic debate with my labeling ). His RAPM's (the impact metric I tend to put the most faith in, fwiw) look a bit questionable [that is: below expectation] in many years. otoh, WOWY studies, and team performance relative to cast, don't look too bad at all for a player gaining traction in the mid 80's section of the list (better in these regards than Elton Brand, as noted in previous thread).

But as I've said elsewhere, I'm not comfortable putting all my eggs into one basket (and certainly not all into one that isn't a direct measure of "player goodness"). If one were to base ranking/assessment on all other factors and metrics (outside of the impact umbrella), he may conclude we're already 10 or more places late on Carmelo Anthony.
With that in mind, I've a hard time putting him off any further.

Offensively he was clearly a superstar or near-superstar level player. Ranged from a very good to elite/near-elite scorer during his prime (despite spending much of that without terribly relevant play-makers around him). I've never been overly fond of his shot-selection (over-reliance on the mid-range), though that's merely what has kept him from being a consistently "elite" scorer. And in his defense, he does seem to end up taking a lot of dwindling shot-clock bail-out shots when the [often very flawed] offense has failed to generate a solid shot opportunity.

Not a particularly relevant playmaker, though no worse than James Worthy, Dominique Wilkins, or Kawhi Leonard. And he's been a very good rebounding SF (occ. SF/PF) in his career, and also provides some spacing.

A mostly weak defender with sporadic seasons of passable defense. I think most of us would agree that if he played consistently passable defense (I'm not talking good, merely passable), that he'd like have been voted by now (perhaps 10-20 places ago). pandrade83 noted something wrt Melo's defensive intensity on nationally televised games which perhaps speaks to something I've suspected about him (among other "offensive stars"): that Melo could play respectable defense if motivated to do so; perhaps if developed as a young player and deployed in a more offensively limited role-player capacity (as reported he was willing to do in the Olympics, fwiw) with defense being more of a primary focus. I find this of potential relevance as defense is generally the thing weighing down his impact metrics, and noting that impact is a combination of player quality, fit, and utilization. That he could perhaps play much better defense if motivated to do so and given less offensive responsibility is an intriguing thought to me, given players like Tony Allen or Andre Roberson are NOT capable of being good offensive players (motivated or not).

Longevity is actually pretty good by this point (substantially better than Webber, Kawhi, or Tiny; considering minutes, arguably better than Rodman, too).

He's criticized as being difficult to integrate into a contender (fwiw somewhat speculative, imo; difficult to imagine him being the BEST player on a solid contender, that I'd agree with), but at any rate a pretty decent floor-raiser (which carries more value [to me] than most seem to give it credit for).


2nd vote: Maurice Cheeks
Mo's an underrated offensive player, imo. Never a huge scorer, peaking at barely 15 ppg per 36 minutes, but on consistently excellent efficiency----career 52.6% eFG% over a 15-year career, peaking as high as 57.4%, which was pretty outstanding prior to high usage of the 3pt shot. He did it thru a combination of opportunistically attacking the rim (where he was a very good finisher, despite his size--->underrated athlete, as I'd mentioned in the previous thread), and excellent mid-range (13-20 ft) shooting.
He combined high-efficiency opportunistic low-to-middling volume scoring with solid playmaking (career 6.7 apg, peaking at 9.2 per game, and a career 3.26 Ast:TO ratio; very good Modified TOV%, too).

And then there's of course his defensive imprint, which is hinted at in accolades/rep: 5-Time All-Defensive Team (4x 1st team), tied for 3rd in DPOY shares in the first year it was offered ('83), tied for 4th the following year, 5th in '85, 6th in '87, tied for 8th in '88.
Notoriously pesky at harrying the ball-handler, both disrupting offensive flow and delaying how quickly the opposing team could get into their halfcourt offense, and was once the all-time leader in career steals before John Stockton (and subsequently Kidd, Jordan, and Payton) passed him.

Noisy though it is, his on/off splits look fantastic during his Philly years, as is noted beginning in post #152 of this thread. Look at that defensive split in '83!

Was good enough they put a statue of him outside the Sixers' stadium:


Very good longevity, too.
I sure hope we can get some traction for him soon.

[penbeast0]

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: open

Why Mel Daniels? It may be winner's bias, but when I see a team win multiple championships, I tend to look more closely at the makeup of the teams to see WHY they are winning. I don't automatically value big minute contributors to championships, I have been down on Bob Cousy's role on those Celtic titles for example. However, I do value the championships a lot and how a team got there. Indiana was the Boston Celtics of the ABA. They didn't have nearly the big name stars of Kentucky (Gilmore, Issel, Dampier), New York (Erving, Kenon), or even San Antonio (Gervin, Silas, Paultz) but they won the most and the most consistently. Breaking those teams down, Slick Leonard was a competent coach but had little success elsewhere and wasn't that highly regarded for either his game management or his player development. Their guards were pretty weak. Freddie Lewis a below average PG, not much of a distributor and only an average shooter and defender, while their 2 guards changed regularly and were unimpressive. Roger Brown at SF was a nice scorer with good range, great handles, and enough variety that his nickname was "the man of a thousand moves." He was definitely a key factor but he didn't play much defense or add much rebounding or playmaking. The PF were Bob Netolicky (the self proclaimed Joe Namath of the ABA) who was another excellent scorer and decent rebounder with no interest in defense then they replaced him with George McGinnis, another volume scorer (less efficient) and a great rebounder who generated a lot of assists, and turnovers. But for me, looking at this franchise's success, it was all built around Mel Daniels in the middle. A good scorer (consistently close to 20 a game on above average efficiency), great rebounder (usually among top in league), and powerful defender (better positionally than in help defense) who set the tone of the team and acted as their enforcer. His career was short and corresponds almost exactly with the rise and fall of the Pacers as a force in the ABA (his rookie year, he apparently shot a lot of long jump shots and had poor efficiency for Minnesota, which Leonard immediately banned when he came to Indiana).


Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Nobody else changed or dominanted on both ends to the same degree for more than 1-1.5 years (Walton, Hawkins). Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking or, to use dhsilv2's comp, Moses Malone (without the longevity of course). He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense with good scoring (but poor playmaking). The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

It is reasonable to compare Daniels to Kawhi Leonard as they have similar length of career by now. Kawhi brings excellent wing defense early on, but Daniels was probably more impactful defensively as intimidating defensive centers tend to be (especially in the 20th century). Kawhi's defense is still good and his scoring has blown up, a clearly better option than Daniels; also clearly a better passer. Daniels brings rebounding and toughness at a level equal to guys like Wes Unseld or Dave Cowens who are already in from his era (other league). I think the impact Daniels brought was appreciably higher in his league than that Kawhi has in the current league, enough to overcome the much weaker league he played in. Connie Hawkins would be another early ABA guy, higher peak than Daniels, shorter career though he did have a 1st team All-NBA between his first and second major knee injury. More of a career than Walton, less than Daniels. With careers this short, the difference is magnified. Of the bunch, I rate Daniels the highest.


Getting mentioned by position:
PG Mookie, Cheeks, DJ, Terry Porter (not Kevin I assume), Tim Hardaway, Archibald
SG Sharman, Dumars, Lou Hudson, Richmond,
SF Chet Walker, Kawhi, Marques Johnson, Melo, Bernard King, Billy Cunningham, Wilkes
PF Amare, Connie Hawkins, Bailey Howell, Paul Silas, Kemp, McGinnis, Jerry Lucas, Buck
C Mark Gasol, Jack Sikma, Bellamy, Yao. Divac, Zelmo,

Why not Trex's candidate Carmelo Anthony? At the same position, I'd take Chet Walker over Carmelo. He scored less, but part of that was more of a commitment to team first play both in Philly and later in Chicago. Walker was a bit less efficient in the regular season (in a less efficient league), more efficient in the playoffs. He played excellent defense, I was actually surprised that Bob Love got an All-D award instead of Walker in Chicago. Rebounded a bit less, better passer with better handles (relative to the rules of his day). Slightly less longevity, but in a period where you had to attend 4 years of college and the medical support was appreciably worse.

What it comes down to is that I'd rather have the guy that does what Trex suggests Carmelo MIGHT have been able to do in the right situation; play good defense and score efficiently while contributing both to lead a consistent playoff offense (in Chicago) and contribute selflessly to an all-time great ensemble title team (67 Sixers).

[dhsilv2]

Dumars and Johnson comparison would also be SUPER useful. Both feel like they should get major consideration.

penbeast0 - just listed nearly 30 players for the last 12 spots. I feel we owe it to everyone to try and at least compare similar players over these next 12 votes.

Anyway just spit balling but I feel like my next group are the point guards. Mookie, Cheeks, Porter, Archibald, and then a center Divac. Then I'm feeling Melo. That leaves 6 spots. I'm not sold on any of these, but that's my gut feeling. From there sharman bellamy, hardaway...and we'll see.

[trex_8063]

Dumars and Johnson comparison would also be SUPER useful. Both feel like they should get major consideration.

penbeast0 - just listed nearly 30 players for the last 12 spots. I feel we owe it to everyone to try and at least compare similar players over these next 12 votes.

Anyway just spit balling but I feel like my next group are the point guards. Mookie, Cheeks, Porter, Archibald, and then a center Divac. Then I'm feeling Melo. That leaves 6 spots. I'm not sold on any of these, but that's my gut feeling. From there sharman bellamy, hardaway...and we'll see.

Well, I'll get the ball rolling on the Dumars/DJ comp. I'd started a thread on them, as I thought they made a good comparison, too. Can't find the thread (it was awhile ago), but I have a copy of my own take on the comp from that thread:

I was hoping this thread would draw some responses, as it seemed a pretty close and interesting comp. I was looking forward to reading what people had to say. But OK, I'll do my best to go thru the comparison as I see it.

Let's start on offense......
Dumars is the better/more competent scorer. I think DJ was better in transition and at least an equal finisher; but Dumars was a better shooter from pretty much anywhere outside of 10 feet, was pretty savvy with the ball in the half-court, and proved capable of scoring somewhat higher volume on >+4% TS relative to DJ. Both guys maintained volume and efficiency in the playoffs reasonably well.
As playmakers, it looks pretty close on paper. Gut and eye-test persuade me to give DJ a small edge, though. Especially in his Boston years where he turned to more of a true PG type of role and wasn't looking to score as much. I definitely think he was a better transition passer than Dumars; and even in the half-court he really made some brilliant plays from time to time. He was averaging some kinda biggish ast numbers in his last four seasons (7.1 apg collectively from '87-'90), and with a 3.24 Ast:TO ratio.

So small passing edge to DJ if you ask me; easily noticeable scoring edge to Dumars.
DJ was more relevant on the offensive glass, though. As a guard he's not exactly burying the needle on offense with his rebounding (though he was legitimately BIG on the offensive glass his rookie season, in a limited-minute role), but still that gap should be recognized.

And one last thing I'd want to bring up on offense: the clutch factor. Dumars certainly no slouch there, either, though I might give the marginal edge to DJ on that as well. At any rate, he certainly hit more than his fair share of big shots.

So overall on offense........I probably give a slight edge to Dumars, on basis of him being a significantly better scorer from night to night. But it's certainly pretty close.


Defensively.....
Here too it's probably pretty close. Dumars was a pesky and hard-nosed defender in the half-court. On-ball, he could be good at hampering the dribble, perhaps picking them up at half or three-quarter court if guarding the PG, always got a hand up, very solid in iso situations; and though not too tall, he was thick and strong, so wasn't easily bullied (say in the post, for example). Off-ball, he didn't lose track of his man, fought thru screens well, and though he didn't get many steals he could be good at ball-denial.

I don't know that DJ was quite as much of a pest in half-court man-to-man defense, but his length (really long arms for his height) made him a more effective shot contester (would occasionally even block outside shots on his man), he generally created more havoc and turnovers, and was a better help defender (had TWO seasons averaging >1 bpg, plus a third season avg 1.2 block/36 min in a limited minute role).

Defensive rebounding edge definitely goes to DJ, for what that's worth. So overall defensively........I kinda want to give the marginal edge to DJ, but again it's close.


Additional factors ("intangibles") for consideration......
I get the feeling DJ was a very cerebral player whose impact may have gone marginally above and beyond his box-based numbers. Larry Bird would certainly have us believe that, as he's been very effusive in his praise of Dennis Johnson. otoh, he carried a bit of reputation of being difficult to play with (in Seattle and Phoenix), and could potentially sow seeds of disharmony within a team. Yet for all the hearsay and speculation of that sort, he incorporated himself on multiple successful casts.
Dumars is the consummate professional and I think a nearly ideal teammate, fwiw.

As to where that leaves us overall........
I'm still on the fence. I think it's a very close comparison that I wish more people would chime in on.

[dhsilv2]

Dumars and Johnson comparison would also be SUPER useful. Both feel like they should get major consideration.

penbeast0 - just listed nearly 30 players for the last 12 spots. I feel we owe it to everyone to try and at least compare similar players over these next 12 votes.

Anyway just spit balling but I feel like my next group are the point guards. Mookie, Cheeks, Porter, Archibald, and then a center Divac. Then I'm feeling Melo. That leaves 6 spots. I'm not sold on any of these, but that's my gut feeling. From there sharman bellamy, hardaway...and we'll see.

Well, I'll get the ball rolling on the Dumars/DJ comp. I'd started a thread on them, as I thought they made a good comparison, too. Can't find the thread (it was awhile ago), but I have a copy of my own take on the comp from that thread:

I was hoping this thread would draw some responses, as it seemed a pretty close and interesting comp. I was looking forward to reading what people had to say. But OK, I'll do my best to go thru the comparison as I see it.

Let's start on offense......
Dumars is the better/more competent scorer. I think DJ was better in transition and at least an equal finisher; but Dumars was a better shooter from pretty much anywhere outside of 10 feet, was pretty savvy with the ball in the half-court, and proved capable of scoring somewhat higher volume on >+4% TS relative to DJ. Both guys maintained volume and efficiency in the playoffs reasonably well.
As playmakers, it looks pretty close on paper. Gut and eye-test persuade me to give DJ a small edge, though. Especially in his Boston years where he turned to more of a true PG type of role and wasn't looking to score as much. I definitely think he was a better transition passer than Dumars; and even in the half-court he really made some brilliant plays from time to time. He was averaging some kinda biggish ast numbers in his last four seasons (7.1 apg collectively from '87-'90), and with a 3.24 Ast:TO ratio.

So small passing edge to DJ if you ask me; easily noticeable scoring edge to Dumars.
DJ was more relevant on the offensive glass, though. As a guard he's not exactly burying the needle on offense with his rebounding (though he was legitimately BIG on the offensive glass his rookie season, in a limited-minute role), but still that gap should be recognized.

And one last thing I'd want to bring up on offense: the clutch factor. Dumars certainly no slouch there, either, though I might give the marginal edge to DJ on that as well. At any rate, he certainly hit more than his fair share of big shots.

So overall on offense........I probably give a slight edge to Dumars, on basis of him being a significantly better scorer from night to night. But it's certainly pretty close.


Defensively.....
Here too it's probably pretty close. Dumars was a pesky and hard-nosed defender in the half-court. On-ball, he could be good at hampering the dribble, perhaps picking them up at half or three-quarter court if guarding the PG, always got a hand up, very solid in iso situations; and though not too tall, he was thick and strong, so wasn't easily bullied (say in the post, for example). Off-ball, he didn't lose track of his man, fought thru screens well, and though he didn't get many steals he could be good at ball-denial.

I don't know that DJ was quite as much of a pest in half-court man-to-man defense, but his length (really long arms for his height) made him a more effective shot contester (would occasionally even block outside shots on his man), he generally created more havoc and turnovers, and was a better help defender (had TWO seasons averaging >1 bpg, plus a third season avg 1.2 block/36 min in a limited minute role).

Defensive rebounding edge definitely goes to DJ, for what that's worth. So overall defensively........I kinda want to give the marginal edge to DJ, but again it's close.


Additional factors ("intangibles") for consideration......
I get the feeling DJ was a very cerebral player whose impact may have gone marginally above and beyond his box-based numbers. Larry Bird would certainly have us believe that, as he's been very effusive in his praise of Dennis Johnson. otoh, he carried a bit of reputation of being difficult to play with (in Seattle and Phoenix), and could potentially sow seeds of disharmony within a team. Yet for all the hearsay and speculation of that sort, he incorporated himself on multiple successful casts.
Dumars is the consummate professional and I think a nearly ideal teammate, fwiw.

As to where that leaves us overall........
I'm still on the fence. I think it's a very close comparison that I wish more people would chime in on.

I'm confused, that read as Dumars bends DJ over for lunch, and then asks if anyone can solve the question?

For my view, I have just zero feel for DJ in seatle which is where I'd assume his value is at the apex. So I need to see some games or I'm at a loss beyond stats which I doubt work here.

[SactoKingsFan]

Porter will be my primary vote with the secondary vote going to Cheeks, Blaylock, Divac, Hardaway or Richmond. Not sure when I'd vote for Melo. He's been dropping down my list to borderline 95-100 range. It would have to be a runoff with guys like Amare, King, Sharman, Lucas and Archibald.

Sent from my Essential PH-1 using Tapatalk

[trex_8063]

I'm confused, that read as Dumars bends DJ over for lunch, and then asks if anyone can solve the question?

I can't figure how that was your take on the above.

For offense I assessed Dumars as the better scorer and DJ the better playmaker (EDIT: and better offensive rebounder; better overall rebounder fwiw), with my summary assessment on offense being (and I quote):

So overall on offense........I probably give a slight edge to Dumars, on basis of him being a significantly better scorer from night to night. But it's certainly pretty close.

My summary assessment on defense was (and I quote):

So overall defensively........I kinda want to give the marginal edge to DJ, but again it's close.

And then my comments regarding intangibles were positive for Dumars, mixed (though mostly positive) for DJ.

[pandrade83]

For fun a few comparisons I'd like to see discussion on.

1. Porter | Hardaway | Sharman (maybe?)
2. Cheeks | Mookie
3. And not sure who but we need a few of the volume scorers getting mentions.

Basically, who was the best in similar roles among those coming up. I think it'll help with where we place them in the project.

I think all 4 Point guards listed here are excellent candidates. I see very little separation. This post is to help create awareness for all 4 and I'd be fine with any of them getting in.

We have enough evidence that RAPM views each highly (which I'll speak to), but one arbitrary cut-off from the Box Score that I used was high impact & very high impact. This treats a year as high impact if VORP is above 4, PER is above 18 or WS is above 8; it treats a year as very high impact if VORP is above 5, PER is above 20 or WS is above 10.

Porter brought spacing and was ahead of his time. A strong 3 point shooter who netted 63% TS in his best year ('91), Porter was a solid point guard who was an excellent #2 for outstanding offenses from '88-'92 that netted fantastic offensive ratings of an average +3.2 over that time horizon. Porter has the most WS of this bunch as NPI RAPM views him favorably late into his career. While we don't know what the metric would've viewed him as during his prime, we can infer it would be likely to think highly of him. I view him as a very efficient player - strong TS%'s, solid defender, achieved strong TO economy in the last half of his prime and helped key powerful offenses. I view him as a poor man's Chris Paul.

Relative to the group, I think Porter brings the highest peak - I really like his '91 season - he also leads in Win Shares. My arbitrary box score rating gives him 3 very high impact years and 3 high impact years.

Watch on YouTube

Cheeks was an outstanding floor general - I view him as a poor man's John Stockton but with a bit more athletic prowess. A superb defender who is 5th in steals all time and made 5 consecutive All-Defensive teams. Although Cheeks maxes out at 15 PPG, he's an efficient shooter who has a career TS of 57% with several seasons at or right at 60%. Based on Sixer +/- data that we have access too from the 80's that Trex has posted, we know that impact data thinks highly of him.

While he was the least aggressive playmaker of the quartet, he still has 3 years at over 8 assists per game.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 1 very high impact year - the least of the bunch & 5 high impact years.

While scoring wise, the below video is an aberration, you see the aggressive defense, the high energy & the general enthusiasm for the game. He was past his prime by the time I was watching games, but he was still fun to watch even in his post prime. I view him as the weakest of the four - but I think it's perfectly reasonable that our fearless leader disagrees.

Watch on YouTube

Mookie Blaylock was an erratic player who put it together for a few years in Atlanta - leading successful Hawk teams including a pair of 55+ game winners as their best player. Blaylock may have been an even better defender than Cheeks - making All-Defense 6 times. He was an erratic shooter to say the least who needed to work on his shot selection - he finishes with TS% over 50 just 3 times & peaks at only 55 - but he was TO resilient for a PG, finishing his career at 14%. He's an aggressive ball thief who finishes in Top 10 in steals virtually every year and leads the league in steals multiple times without having to gamble. He rebounds well for a guard as well - leading this group in rebounding %. In the playoffs, he suffered offensively most years - but had a tendency to shut down the opposition defensively - as the video will show. RAPM views him very highly in '97 & even as he starts to exit his prime in '98 & '99.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 4 very high impact years and 1 high impact year. He's the most volatile of the group, but for me, he has the best sustained peak.

Watch on YouTube

Tim Hardaway is my pick from this group. A point guard is supposed to be a playmaker and drive the offense. Hardaway does this the best. He's by far the most dynamic scoring threat of the pack - the only player to average 20 PPG & he does so 5 times while maintaining a 14% TO economy or better in all years but '95. Of course, the thing that really seperates him apart is his ability to create plays for others - he has a CAREER assist % of 37.9% Blaylock achieves that figure just once in his career and the rest never do even for one season. His 5 year RAPM - which includes 3 post-prime years from '97-'01 - views him as an ALl-Star when the data is chained and elite for '97 & '98.

He excels in two different environments - the high scoring Golden State situation and the rock-fight oriented Heat squad with Alonzo Mourning. He - for me - has the 2nd most impressive peak, leading the Heat to 61 games & the ECF on the heels of a monster playoff performance vs. the Knicks. Later in his career, he goes from an explosive athlete to a canny intelligent player.

He's not as strong a defender as Blaylock or Cheeks - but he's pesky and can force turnovers.

His playoffs is a bit of a roller coaster, skewing slightly negative - but is highlighted by strong performances vs. NY in '97 & '98, & a fantastic run in '91.

I chose to go with a GSW era video, but that's because that's how I personally choose to remember him - as part of Run TMC.

My arbitrary box score metric gives him 3 very high impact years & 5 high impact years - the most total high impact or above years of the group.

Watch on YouTube

Primary: Tim Hardaway
Alternate: Blaylock

[SactoKingsFan]

Primary Vote: Terry Porter
Alt Vote: Mo Cheeks

Porter was a very efficient scorer and excellent 3 PT shooter (prime: 39.9%, career: 38.6%), decent to solid defender (could guard 2s when needed), effective penetrator with deceptive quickness and good passer/decision maker. Porter was also an impressive prime playoff performer, especially from 90-92, and knew how to use his size and strength against smaller guards. Based on their skill-sets, playing style and ability to step up during the playoffs, I think the closest recent comp to prime Porter is Chauncey Billups. Although his prime (88-93) wasn't lengthy, Porter added enough high quality role player seasons to have good career longevity with 110 career win shares.


He was the second best player on the Blazers when they were legit contenders from 90-92. From 90-91 there's not even a clear-cut gap between Drexler and Porter.


90-91 Drexler RS: 24.0 WS, .208 WS/48, 55.7 TS%, 25.6 USG%
90-91 Porter RS: 24.8 WS, .218 WS/48, 61.4 TS%, 19.8 USG%


90-91 Drexler PS: 4.3 WS, .138 WS/48, 52.6 TS%, 24.9 USG%
90-91 Porter PS: 5.1 WS, .175 WS/48, 61.7 TS%, 20.1 USG%


Porter had some exceptional playoff runs from 90-92. Managed to outperform Drexler in a few series and embarrassed Stockton in the 92 WCF.


90-92 Porter PS (58 GP): 62.8 TS%, ,507 FTr, .185 WS/48, 4.3 BPM


92 WCF v UTA

Porter: 26 pts, 8.3 ast, 4 reb on 72.4 TS%, .529 3 PT%,149 ORtg, 117 DRtg, 25.0 Game Score
Stockton: 14.3 pts, 2.2 reb, 11.2 ast on 53.5 TS%, .231 3 PT%, 114 ORtg, 121 DRtg, 14.0 Game Score


Prime Porter RS (88-93): 487 GP, .58.7 TS%, .358 FTr, 30.8 AST%, 15.5 TOV%, .176 WS/48, 120 ORtg, 107 DRtg, 3.4 BPM


Prime Porter PS (88-93): 69 GP, 61.2 TS%, .452 FTr, 26.4 AST%, 12.9 TOV%, .171 WS/48, 125 ORtg, 112 DRtg, 3.8 BPM



Sent from my Essential PH-1 using Tapatalk

[scrabbarista]

I've been having to leave town twice a week lately and will through February. I travel without a laptop and find typing on my phone too tedious,so I may just be popping in to vote in run-offs when I see ones that are important to me. I guess we'll see.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #12:

Carmelo Anthony - 1 (trex_8063)
Terry Porter - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


About 24 hours or just over until we go to runoff.
@ penbeast: like to see you take a stand with an alternate pick, as narrowing for the runoff may well come down to the secondary picks.

Spoiler:

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

[penbeast0]

I want a chance to listen to all the arguments and evaluate because they are pretty close for me at the moment.

[dhsilv2]

I'm confused, that read as Dumars bends DJ over for lunch, and then asks if anyone can solve the question?

I can't figure how that was your take on the above.

For offense I assessed Dumars as the better scorer and DJ the better playmaker (EDIT: and better offensive rebounder; better overall rebounder fwiw), with my summary assessment on offense being (and I quote):

So overall on offense........I probably give a slight edge to Dumars, on basis of him being a significantly better scorer from night to night. But it's certainly pretty close.

My summary assessment on defense was (and I quote):

So overall defensively........I kinda want to give the marginal edge to DJ, but again it's close.

And then my comments regarding intangibles were positive for Dumars, mixed (though mostly positive) for DJ.

The way you described their offense gave a pretty meaningful and considerable edge to Dumars, despite you pulling it back and saying it was close. Your defensive description didn't really move it back to favor DJ.

[dhsilv2]

Gosh this is hard. Very open to changing.

Vote Mookie -The old RAPM data is certainly playing a role in this vote, perhaps way too much. My memory of him is as a tough as nails defender, a guy who could really cause havoc. His box score metrics grade out well with a staggering 12.5 WS and 7.1 VORP season.

Going into this season Melo had a 29.7 VORP. Blaylock ended his career at 38.9. Yes WS will favor Melo and his longevity, but it's nowhere near enough for me to ignore the difference in their peaks.

Alt - Porter

[Clyde Frazier]

Will see if I can come back with any new content on what has become an uphill battle, but my vote stands as is…

Vote 1 - Carmelo Anthony

Vote 2 - Tiny Archibald

- 14 seasons
- 6x all NBA (two 2nd, four 3rd)
- 1 top 3 and 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 1x scoring champ

Players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range:

VORP

George Gervin 32.2 *-1 season
Bobby Jones 32
Dan Issel 31.2 *-3 seasons
Steve Nash 31.2
Carmelo Anthony 29.4
James Worthy 28.5
Kevin Johnson 28
Chris Bosh 27.5
Tony Parker 27
Bob McAdoo 26.5 *-1 season
Dave Cowens 26.2 *-3 seasons
Alonzo Mourning 24

*Number of seasons played prior to 73-74 where stat could not be calculated

Win Shares

In this case the total # of win shares speaks to Carmelo’s solid longevity. As a reference point, his prime WS/48 from 06-14 is .149 and he peaked at .184.

Hal Greer 102.7
Alex English 100.7
Grant Hilll 99.9
Allen Iverson 99
McGrady 97.3
Carmelo Anthony 97
Bobby Jones 94.1
Ben Wallace 93.5
Kevin Johnson 92.8
Sam Jones 92.3
Bob Cousy 91.1
James Harden 91.3
Sidney Moncrief 90.3
Dennis Rodman 89.8
Alonzo Mourning 89.7
Bob McAdoo 89.1
Dave Cowens 86.3
Chris Webber 84.7
James Worthy 81.2

In the seasons post 2014 top 100 project, the PG situation in new york did not improve at all:

14-15: Shane Larkin, Langston Galloway, 37 yr old prigioni, 33 yr old calderon

15-16: Langston Galloway, rookie Jerian Grant, 34 yr old Caldeorn — this PG rotation was so poor that carmelo ended up leading the team in APG and just about equaled calderon in AST%

16-17: Rose, Jennings, rookie Ron Baker

Jennings was really the one penetrate and dish PG the knicks had in those 3 seasons. He even seemed to buy in to the fact that he can’t shoot and really got everyone involved. Of course, he had rose starting in front of him, so his time on the floor with melo was limited. He was used more in bench lineups that actually thrived, relatively speaking.

In an era where dynamic PG play is paramount, knicks management abhorrently ignored the position. I don’t think you can find such ineptitude in a front office with playoff aspirations outside of the cousins-era kings.

Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.

He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He had a deceptively quick second jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possessed a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he was really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He isn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.

Carmelo had the full repertoire going with his career high 62 pts against charlotte last season (they ranked 5th in DRTG):

Watch on YouTube

I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #62, and I think a 26 spot gap between the two is pushing it. Take a look at how they compare over their first 11 seasons (dominique actually comes off as worse if you look at his whole career):

http://bkref.com/tiny/KSWoH

They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier. I noted trex's argument in past threads about nique consistently carrying offenses with not much support. It's a valid point, although again it's 26 spots later.

There always seemed to be this all or nothing evaluation of carmelo where he’d be expected to be as good as lebron / durant (which he obviously isn’t), or he’s barely a top 20 player in the league. You may want to fault him for forcing his way to NY, but let’s not pretend like many players voted in already haven’t done the same.

ronnymac brings up a good point about low turnovers being a plus for high usage players. Below are are 20+ PPG scorers in the playoffs (excluding centers) sorted by TO% (best to worst):

http://bkref.com/tiny/HO11E

Of course there are guys at the “bottom” who were very successful, but the lower TO% can help offset some of the decrease in efficiency we see with carmelo in the playoffs.

Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:

Watch on YouTube

For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.

http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ

[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]

I’m aware that he hasn’t been quite as clutch over the last few seasons, but i attribute some of that to fatigue (he led the league in MPG last season) and the makeup of his teams. He’s still had his fair share of clutch moments since coming to NY, and hit multiple game winners during his first season here. He did give us this gem in 2012 as well:

Watch on YouTube

Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.

CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK

04 - 11th / 2nd
05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
06 - 15th / 9th
07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
08 - 11th / 2nd
09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
10 - 8th / 3rd
11 - 15th / 6th
12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
13 - 7th / 9th

Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far.

It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with. Some more details on his recent playoff loses:

09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team.

He had some great performances during that run.

11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively.

Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.

12 - Disastrous # of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.

13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.

As for defense, the last few seasons specifically he hasn’t been the same player physically. I’ve never claimed him to be a plus defender, even in his prime. I’m now reminded of some data i gathered in the 2014 project that i haven’t added here:

While not perfect, take a look at how the below SFs have performed against carmelo vs. their career averages. Sure, camrelo may not have been guarding them the whole time, but it's a large enough sample size to at least uncover any red flags.

(TS% or eFG% not available for head to head data)

Durant - 27.9 PPG on 43/41/87 (career 27.3 PPG on 48/38/88)

LeBron - 25.9 PPG on 49/27/70 (career 27.4 PPG on 50/34/75)

Gay - 18.6 PPG on 44/22/72 (career 18.4 PPG on 45/34/79)

George - 15.1 PPG on 45/34/77 (career 15.3 PPG on 43/36/83)

Pierce - 23.1 PPG on 50/41/80 (career 20.9 PPG on 45/37/81)

Granger - 16.6 PPG on 45/39/88 (career 16.8 PPG on 43/38/85)

Caron Butler - 12.4 PPG on 43/38/84 (career 14.5 PPG on 43/34/85)

McGrady - 19.6 PPG on 45/44/82 (career 19.6 PPG on 44/34/75)

Deng - 17.1 PPG on 45/36/83 (career 16.9 PPG on 46/33/77)

Josh Howard - 12.7 PPG on 44/31/79 (career 14.3 PPG on 45/33/77)

Richard Jefferson - 14.2 PPG on 51/43/66 (career 14 PPG on 47/38/77)

Stephen Jackson - 17.4 PPG on 35/33/86 (career 15.1 PPG on 41/33/80)

Of the 12 players, 6 scored the same or less than their career averages against carmelo. Those that scored more were only by marginal amounts. Efficiency ranges from lower to somewhat higher. No red flags here.

That’s 11 seasons of data. It doesn’t paint the picture of an egregious defender.

Here are the best players carmelo’s played with over the course of his career: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season, in shape felton and porzingis' rookie/soph year.

Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Porzingis and carmelo actually had great chemistry until rose came along, but their timelines unfortunately didn't match up. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 2009 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.

With regard to how carmelo’s career is perceived, I always go back to pierce before garnett and allen came along. Even if we agree that pierce is the better player, he had only been to the conf finals once before that trade, and i’m not sure how his career progresses without those trades being made. Does he stick with it in boston and not make anymore playoff runs? Does he eventually go to another team? I just wonder how carmelo would be looked at had he been fortunate enough to play with teammates of that caliber in his prime.

[Outside]

Gosh this is hard. Very open to changing.

Vote Mookie -The old RAPM data is certainly playing a role in this vote, perhaps way too much. My memory of him is as a tough as nails defender, a guy who could really cause havoc. His box score metrics grade out well with a staggering 12.5 WS and 7.1 VORP season.

Going into this season Melo had a 29.7 VORP. Blaylock ended his career at 38.9. Yes WS will favor Melo and his longevity, but it's nowhere near enough for me to ignore the difference in their peaks.

I agree on how close candidates are at this point. 13-way tie for 88th, anyone?

Regarding Mookie, I had not previously considered him for this project. He is an interesting mix of stats -- not very high scoring compared to other candidates, dreadful TS% (48.8), very good on turnovers, very good on assists, and excellent on steals. On the derived box stats, as you pointed out, he comes out very well on BPM and VORP, though not as well on WS, WS/48, or PER. That seems to play out for his PS stats also.

Regarding Carmelo, the two of them being such different players with such different strengths makes the comparison difficult. I really like players who defend, so that's making me consider Mookie. I like the additional perspective that advanced stats provide, but I use that to enhance my take on basic stats, not replace it, and basic stats clearly favor Carmelo for me.

But this is all making Porter look much better to me. He has similar RS VORP to Blaylock, was a far more efficient scorer, has a relatively short prime but was really good during those years, and he has a superior PS resume. Porter wasn't as good a defender as Blaylock, but he was good on that end. His PS numbers in particular do it for me. In particular, he upped his game during his time in Portland, and the three-year run from 1990-92 when they went deep into the playoffs is very impressive across the board. Those three years represent 58 games, which is more than Mookie's entire playoff career and close to Carmelo's. I really value players who step it up on deep playoff runs.

Vote: Terry Porter
Alternate: Carmelo Anthony

[penbeast0]

My problem with Mookie is from memory/eye test. His defense was excellent, he was a little pest, though his size limited him against bigger guards. HIs offense was basically modern (in a bad way), he could shoot threes but didn't create well for either himself or others. If you left him alone, he'd hit threes, if you guarded him, he would try to playmake but didn't have great natural playmaking instincts. I liked Terry Porter and Derek Harper (who I liked more than Porter at the time) better, but Mookie and Terry had 3 point shots where Derek Harper didn't. Cheeks was another guy I liked, he wasn't a scoring threat (though surprisingly efficient!) but excellent defense and added playmaking. Don Buse was another defensive stud but shorter prime and career. Tim Hardaway and Mark Price were stronger offensive threats than any of the above but didn't have the defensive end. Hardaway was flashier but Price had the stronger spacing effect and seemed to be the smarter player though without Timbug's explosive quickness.

For that matter there is Penny Hardaway still out there too though I didn't like him when he was playing, but his peak may have been the strongest of all the PGs mentioned with his unusual size/quickness mix. Nate Archibald for even higher peak. And that's just the PGs.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #19:

Carmelo Anthony - 2 (Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Terry Porter - 2 (SactoKingsFan, Outside)
Mookie Blaylock - 1 (dhsilv2)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


So we'll go to runoff with Carmelo and Terry Porter; based on expressed sentiment, I feel the runoff may be little more than a formality, but on we go.......transferring one secondary vote we get:

Terry Porter - 3 (SactoKingsFan, Outside, dhsilv2)
Carmelo Anthony - 2 (Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)


If your name isn't shown here, please state your pick between these two with reasons why. Will conclude within 24 hours.

Spoiler:

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.