RealGM 2017 Top 100 #90 (Carmelo Anthony)

[trex_8063]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. Ben Wallace
80. Dan Issel
81. Larry Nance
82. James Worthy
83. Chris Webber
84. Rasheed Wallace
85. Dennis Rodman
86. Horace Grant
87. Elton Brand
88. Terry Porter
89. Maurice Cheeks
90. ???

11 remaining......

Spoiler:

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[trex_8063]

1st vote: Carmelo Anthony
(edited)
An impact study of Melo is a little bit of a mixed bag (skewing toward "lower than expected": just so we don't embark on another semantic debate with my labeling ). His RAPM's (the impact metric I tend to put the most faith in, fwiw) look a bit questionable [that is: below expectation] in many years. otoh, WOWY studies, and team performance relative to cast, don't look too bad at all for a player gaining traction in the mid 80's section of the list (better in these regards than Elton Brand, as noted in previous thread).

But as I've said elsewhere, I'm not comfortable putting all my eggs into one basket (and certainly not all into one that isn't a direct measure of "player goodness"). If one were to base ranking/assessment on all other factors and metrics (outside of the impact umbrella), he may conclude we're already 10 or more places late on Carmelo Anthony.
With that in mind, I've a hard time putting him off any further.

Offensively he was clearly a superstar or near-superstar level player. Ranged from a very good to elite/near-elite scorer during his prime (despite spending much of that without terribly relevant play-makers around him). I've never been overly fond of his shot-selection (over-reliance on the mid-range), though that's merely what has kept him from being a consistently "elite" scorer. And in his defense, he does seem to end up taking a lot of dwindling shot-clock bail-out shots when the [often very flawed] offense has failed to generate a solid shot opportunity.

Not a particularly relevant playmaker, though no worse than James Worthy, Dominique Wilkins, or Kawhi Leonard. And he's been a very good rebounding SF (occ. SF/PF) in his career, and also provides some spacing.

A mostly weak defender with sporadic seasons of passable defense. I think most of us would agree that if he played consistently passable defense (I'm not talking good, merely passable), that he'd like have been voted by now (perhaps 10-20 places ago). pandrade83 noted something wrt Melo's defensive intensity on nationally televised games which perhaps speaks to something I've suspected about him (among other "offensive stars"): that Melo could play respectable defense if motivated to do so; perhaps if developed as a young player and deployed in a more offensively limited role-player capacity (as reported he was willing to do in the Olympics, fwiw) with defense being more of a primary focus. I find this of potential relevance as defense is generally the thing weighing down his impact metrics, and noting that impact is a combination of player quality, fit, and utilization. That he could perhaps play much better defense if motivated to do so and given less offensive responsibility is an intriguing thought to me, given players like Tony Allen or Andre Roberson are NOT capable of being good offensive players (motivated or not).

Longevity is actually pretty good by this point (substantially better than Webber, Kawhi, or Tiny; considering minutes, arguably better than Rodman, too).

He's criticized as being difficult to integrate into a contender (fwiw somewhat speculative, imo; difficult to imagine him being the BEST player on a solid contender, that I'd agree with), but at any rate a pretty decent floor-raiser (which carries more value [to me] than most seem to give it credit for).


Some of Carmelo's near company in Best 5-year non-scaled RAPM (PI where available; and utilizing rs APM for '94-'96) added (*where full career or prime not covered):
Horace Grant (#86): +15.46
Chris Webber (#83): +15.17
Chauncey Billups (#55): +14.6
Elton Brand (#86): +14.4
Marc Gasol: +14.08
Tracy McGrady (#65): +13.6
Pau Gasol (#48): +13.1
*Dennis Rodman (#85): +12.52
*Terry Porter (#88): +12.37
Steve Francis: +12.2
Zach Randolph: +11.2
Carmelo Anthony: +11.0
Allen Iverson (#58): +10.71
Gilbert Arenas: +9.2
Rajon Rondo: +7.7
Joakim Noah: +7.5
Al Horford: +6.84
DeMarcus Cousins: +5.15
Stephon Marbury: +5.1
Amar'e Stoudemire: +4.0


OK, but perhaps not as good as one might hope (even for someone in the 80s-90's range; but perhaps not far behind reasonable expectation for this range either, based on values for some of the players already in).
I thought it would also be worthwhile to list Anthony's WOWYR (prime, career) vs that of other players, some already inducted, some currently gaining traction (some who share some of the same criticisms as Melo: good offensively, poor defensively--->like Amar'e, Lucas, Issel, and sporadically even Gasol)......

Carmelo Anthony: +2.9, +2.7
Maurice Cheeks (#89): +1.0, +1.4
Elton Brand (#87): +2.3, +1.2
Terry Porter (#88): +2.5, +2.4
Dan Issel (#80): +2.3, +2.1
Grant Hill (#73): +2.6, +1.8
Shawn Marion (#77): +2.9, +2.6
Manu Ginobili (#54): +3.0, +2.5
Alex English (#64): +2.7, +4.0
Kevin McHale (#40): +3.6, +2.6
Pau Gasol (#48): +2.4, +1.9
Mookie Blaylock: +1.1, +0.7
Amar'e Stoudemire: +1.7, +0.4
Jerry Lucas: +/- 0, -0.6
Tim Hardaway: +3.2, +1.5
Chet Walker: +1.9, +2.0


Additionally, going into the current season he was 86th all-time in rs WS, 51st all-time in career rs PER, just on the fringes of top 100 in VORP since '74, 47th all-time in career playoff PER, #72 all-time in MVP shares fwiw.
If all the above, plus all of Clyde's write-ups doesn't provide an adequate case for him in the vicinity of #90, idk what else to say.



2nd vote: Kawhi Leonard

[Outside]

Some of Carmelo's near company in Best 5-year non-scaled RAPM (PI where available; and utilizing rs APM for '94-'96) added (*where full career or prime not covered):
Horace Grant (#86): +15.46
Chris Webber (#83): +15.17
Chauncey Billups (#55): +14.6
Elton Brand (#86): +14.4
Marc Gasol: +14.08
Tracy McGrady (#65): +13.6
Pau Gasol (#48): +13.1
*Dennis Rodman (#85): +12.52
*Terry Porter (#88): +12.37
Steve Francis: +12.2
Zach Randolph: +11.2
Carmelo Anthony: +11.0
Allen Iverson (#58): +10.71
Gilbert Arenas: +9.2
Rajon Rondo: +7.7
Joakim Noah: +7.5
Al Horford: +6.84
DeMarcus Cousins: +5.15
Stephon Marbury: +5.1
Amar'e Stoudemire: +4.0


OK, but perhaps not as good as one might hope (even for someone in the 80s-90's range; but perhaps not far behind reasonable expectation for this range either, based on values for some of the players already in).
I thought it would also be worthwhile to list Anthony's WOWYR (prime, career) vs that of other players, some already inducted, some currently gaining traction (some who share some of the same criticisms as Melo: good offensively, poor defensively--->like Amar'e, Lucas, Issel, and sporadically even Gasol)......

Carmelo Anthony: +2.9, +2.7
Maurice Cheeks (#89): +1.0, +1.4
Elton Brand (#87): +2.3, +1.2
Terry Porter (#88): +2.5, +2.4
Dan Issel (#80): +2.3, +2.1
Grant Hill (#73): +2.6, +1.8
Shawn Marion (#77): +2.9, +2.6
Manu Ginobili (#54): +3.0, +2.5
Alex English (#64): +2.7, +4.0
Kevin McHale (#40): +3.6, +2.6
Pau Gasol (#48): +2.4, +1.9
Mookie Blaylock: +1.1, +0.7
Amar'e Stoudemire: +1.7, +0.4
Jerry Lucas: +/- 0, -0.6
Tim Hardaway: +3.2, +1.5
Chet Walker: +1.9, +2.0

Which sites do you guys use for RAPM and WOWY? From what I've learned about RAPM in particular, there can be differences in how it's calculated.

[trex_8063]

Which sites do you guys use for RAPM and WOWY? From what I've learned about RAPM in particular, there can be differences in how it's calculated.

I have two separate spreadsheets where I'd compiled RAPM (and APM) data for dozens of noteworthy players.....

First spreadsheet uses:
For '94-'96--->the rs APM provided by colts18.
For '97-'00--->ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt blog (NPI for '97, PI for '98-'00)
For '01-'07---->shutupandjam.net (NPI for '01, PI for '02-'07)
For '08-'14---->PI RAPM from GotBuckets?.com (the site no longer exists)
For '15-'17---->J.E.'s PI RAPM google sheets


Second spreadsheet uses the same source EXCEPT instead of shutupandjam and GotBuckets? for '01-'13 sample, it uses J.E.'s RAPM (NPI for '01 and '12, PI for other years). The combined RAPMs I cited above are from the second spreadsheet (as J.E.'s RAPM seems to be the more widely used/accepted).
And you're right, there can [sometimes] be significant differences in RAPM (same player, same year) depending on the source........it's one of the reasons I'm reluctant to put TOO much faith in it: it troubles me that the result can potentially be vastly different based on nothing more than how it's calculated.


Regressed WOWY pt differential info (WOWYR) is from Elgee's Backpicks blog.

[penbeast0]

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: Joe Dumars (Sharman, Howell, Beaty, Jerry Lucas, or one of the SFs if someone can compare Connie Hawkins, Chet Walker, Marques Johnson, Kawhi Leonard are also possibles)

Why Mel Daniels? It may be winner's bias, but when I see a team win multiple championships, I tend to look more closely at the makeup of the teams to see WHY they are winning. I don't automatically value big minute contributors to championships, I have been down on Bob Cousy's role on those Celtic titles for example. However, I do value the championships a lot and how a team got there. Indiana was the Boston Celtics of the ABA. They didn't have nearly the big name stars of Kentucky (Gilmore, Issel, Dampier), New York (Erving, Kenon), or even San Antonio (Gervin, Silas, Paultz) but they won the most and the most consistently. Breaking those teams down, Slick Leonard was a competent coach but had little success elsewhere and wasn't that highly regarded for either his game management or his player development. Their guards were pretty weak. Freddie Lewis a below average PG, not much of a distributor and only an average shooter and defender, while their 2 guards changed regularly and were unimpressive. Roger Brown at SF was a nice scorer with good range, great handles, and enough variety that his nickname was "the man of a thousand moves." He was definitely a key factor but he didn't play much defense or add much rebounding or playmaking. The PF were Bob Netolicky (the self proclaimed Joe Namath of the ABA) who was another excellent scorer and decent rebounder with no interest in defense then they replaced him with George McGinnis, another volume scorer (less efficient) and a great rebounder who generated a lot of assists, and turnovers. But for me, looking at this franchise's success, it was all built around Mel Daniels in the middle. A good scorer (consistently close to 20 a game on above average efficiency), great rebounder (usually among top in league), and powerful defender (better positionally than in help defense) who set the tone of the team and acted as their enforcer. His career was short and corresponds almost exactly with the rise and fall of the Pacers as a force in the ABA (his rookie year, he apparently shot a lot of long jump shots and had poor efficiency for Minnesota, which Leonard immediately banned when he came to Indiana).


Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Nobody else changed or dominanted on both ends to the same degree for more than 1-1.5 years (Walton, Hawkins). Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking or, to use dhsilv2's comp, Moses Malone (without the longevity of course). He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense with good scoring (but poor playmaking). The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

It is reasonable to compare Daniels to Kawhi Leonard as they have similar length of career by now. Kawhi brings excellent wing defense early on, but Daniels was probably more impactful defensively as intimidating defensive centers tend to be (especially in the 20th century). Kawhi's defense is still good and his scoring has blown up, a clearly better option than Daniels; also clearly a better passer. Daniels brings rebounding and toughness at a level equal to guys like Wes Unseld or Dave Cowens who are already in from his era (other league). I think the impact Daniels brought was appreciably higher in his league than that Kawhi has in the current league, enough to overcome the much weaker league he played in. Connie Hawkins would be another early ABA guy, higher peak than Daniels, shorter career though he did have a 1st team All-NBA between his first and second major knee injury. More of a career than Walton, less than Daniels. With careers this short, the difference is magnified. Of the bunch, I rate Daniels the highest.

For my alternative, I will go with Joe Dumars. I wasn't a huge Dumars fan. He was a good but not great scorer, had an excellent defensive rep, but he seemed sort of a rich man's Avery Bradley and had some of the worst steal/block/rebounding rates ever. Still, scoring, defense, leading scorer on back to back NBA title teams. Throwing him out there to see if anyone salures (instead of Lucas). Really pretty up in the air at this point among a lot of players.

Getting mentioned by position:
PG Mookie, DJ, Tim Hardaway, Archibald
SG Sharman, Dumars, Lou Hudson, Richmond,
SF Chet Walker, Kawhi, Marques Johnson, Melo, Bernard King, Billy Cunningham, Wilkes, Dandridge
PF Amare, Connie Hawkins, Bailey Howell, Paul Silas, Kemp, McGinnis, Jerry Lucas, Buck Williams
C Mel Daniels, Mark Gasol, Jack Sikma, Bellamy, Yao. Divac, Zelmo,

Why not Trex's candidate Carmelo Anthony? At the same position, I'd take Chet Walker over Carmelo. He scored less, but part of that was more of a commitment to team first play both in Philly and later in Chicago. Walker was a bit less efficient in the regular season (in a less efficient league), more efficient in the playoffs. He played excellent defense, I was actually surprised that Bob Love got an All-D award instead of Walker in Chicago. Rebounded a bit less, better passer with better handles (relative to the rules of his day). Slightly less longevity, but in a period where you had to attend 4 years of college and the medical support was appreciably worse.

What it comes down to is that I'd rather have the guy that does what Trex suggests Carmelo MIGHT have been able to do in the right situation; play good defense and score efficiently while contributing both to lead a consistent playoff offense (in Chicago) and contribute selflessly to an all-time great ensemble title team (67 Sixers). Of course, I will also vote for many of the other people listed here (many, not necessarily most) in the inevitable runoff against Carmelo as well.

[trex_8063]

Transporting here as it's still relevant....

These runoffs are basically becoming [insert lower tier player here who had some decent playoff success] over melo for the last several threads. I don’t know what else to say at this point. He has a resume that’s deserving of a top 100 spot, and I’ve gone into detail on his entire career to provide context regarding the lower points.

I’ve focused specifically on dominique in my writeup because their player archetypes and careers simply aren’t this far apart. So yes, i’m frustrated at this point. I’m not sure i’ve seen people be this critical of a player with a career similar to melo's in the modern era.

Look, you can make a strong argument using +/- that Melo is only the 5th most accomplished player in his draft class behind Kyle Korver

Maybe.....if you wanted to put ALL your eggs into one basket [the RAPM basket]-----a basket with well-documented imperfections and source/method-based inconsistencies, and which [again] is not something that directly and ONLY measures player quality (which I realize the latter could be said of all other rate metrics, too, but that's actually kind of why I think it's important to use some amalgamation of all available metrics)-----and ignore/neglect all other baskets.......and if you also use said "one basket" in a specific [arguably incorrect] manner......then you could arrive at that conclusion. I'll explain what I mean:

Korver's best RAPM years exceed those of Anthony; but let's not overlook it's a rate metric and thus subject to playing time (of which Melo has more). And when our players in question go to the bench, they are "replaced" by [presumably] "replacement level" players. If we were to define a "replacement level player" as a -2.0 RAPM (iirc, -2.0 is the BPM value used to define replacement level in calculating VORP), we could then perhaps find their total [cumulative] value over replacement as measured by RAPM.

I'm talking something like (using PI where available, btw): (Player RAPM - (-2))*Minutes

If we did that for their respective BEST 7 seasons as measured by RAPM, Korver would have total score of 66,763.19 vs 64,376.64 for Melo; so Korver is a mere 3.7% "better" over those 7 seasons........IF we look at nothing else.
Of course if we DID want to look at something else, we might notice, for examples, that Anthony has the higher WS/48 over those same 7 years (.141 to .131, while playing more minutes, too, leading to a 50.3 to 36.9 edge in total WS--->a 36.3% edge), a +1.8 BPM to Korver's +1.7 BPM (again, in more minutes, leading to a +16.6 to +12.6 edge in VORP---->a 31.7% edge), and a massive 22.1 to 13.1 edge in PER over those same 7 years (again, in more minutes).
Does Korver's 3.7% edge in RAPM-based analysis overcome the generally very large edge as measured by nearly everything else? imo, no.


And that's before extending the window to a larger time-frame. If we looked at their respective 10 best seasons as measured by RAPM and calculated total value over replacement level in those years, Anthony now the slight (1.6%) edge: 79,825.04 to 78,588.79.

^^^This is via RAPM, the metric that especially likes Korver and appears to hate Anthony. Adding in the other metrics, Anthony in these 10 seasons has a 33.5% edge in WS (68.6 to 51.4, with a .137 to .124 edge in WS/48), a 24.6% edge in VORP (21.8 to 17.5, with a +1.6 to +1.5 edge in BPM), and a 21.5 to 13.0 edge in PER.


And it only gets worse for Korver the wider time-frame we look at. Because whereas Anthony's only got 3 seasons of negative RAPM's, Korver took until his 5th season to have his first positive RAPM (has five total negative seasons, plus one other at 0); and his two worst (-3.67 and -3.2) are far worse than any seen from Anthony. And there are TWO seemingly prime Anthony seasons ('06 and '08) which were NOT included in the above 10-season sample (whereas ALL of Korver's prime is accounted for).

And then fwiw (since I've cited it previously), I'll also note their respective WOWYR (prime, career)....
Anthony: +2.9, +2.7
Korver; +2.3, +1.9


Even avoiding any and all mention of accolades, when I get to the bottom of all this^^^^, I don't see where Korver even remotely has a case as the more accomplished career. It takes an extraordinary amount of tunnel vision----down to a SINGLE metric (which without a doubt should only be one tool in the toolbox) and zooming in on a mere handful of best seasons (out of their 14-year careers)----to lead one to that conclusion.

[dhsilv2]

Melo's peak WS was 10.7 and peak VORP was 4.2. He doesn't have another WS of 10 or more and he doesn't have another VORP year over 3.

RAPM might show that perhaps WS and VORP over value Melo or they are showing us that perhaps he was better than RAPM. All of this however paints the picture of a guy with solid longevity but who possibly had 1 strong impact seasons and a few solid value add years. There's no star level seasons, no high impact years, etc.

If we want to value accumulation numbers, why no cry for Bellamy with a solid 30 higher WS or Buck Williams who was 20 higher, or Chet Walker, Bailey Howll, Silkma, Schrempf, Hornacek, Thorp, Beaty, Laimbeer, Perkins, Terry, Andre Miller, Eddie Jones, or ed macauley?

If we go by VORP why not Divac, Eddie Jones (ahead of Melo on now two metrics), Iguodala, Hornacek, Kirlienko, Sikma, Alvan Dams, Mookie Blaylock, Chris Mullin, Alven Roberts, Charles Oakley, Schrempf, Majerle, Camby, Hawkins, Odom, Battier, Buck Williams, Tim Hardaway, Kyle Lowry, Rashard Lewis, Baron Davis, Terry.

So if I'm going to look at WS and VORP I see a lot of people who look to be better choices. We don't hvae RAPM on all of them, but from what I've seen it's doubtful many would do worse in RAPM that melo. So that leaves us with WOWY a stat that I honestly can't peak to beyond it seems rather questionable to say the least as a reason to dismiss that all the other metrics are giving us a lot of clear better careers and/or clear better peaks.

I go back on Melo, he was 89th in 2014. He has done imo nothing to help his case to justify moving him up, I'd argue the last 3 years measure out small value add, but not meaningful in any way. We have about 5 people from that list still not in. 95-100 seems like a much more reasonable place for Melo given his career. I can however understand those who may choose to leave him out completely. He doesn't really have any intangibles to build a case around.

[pandrade83]

Quickly since i'm short on time:

I'll make the case for Hardaway succinctly:

He was the best player on a pair of 55+ win squads, RAPM tells us he was highly impactful and only Hardaway has generated 5 All-NBA Appearances with a Top 5 MVP finish post merger amongst remaining players. Everyone at the time thought he was really good, impact data that we have now that we didn't have then validates it and he was capable of being the best player on winning teams. This shouldn't be that hard.

The Blaylock case is a little more complex. Your memory isn't going to tell you anything eye-popping and at the time, people who followed basketball didn't see him as that impactful.

But like Hardaway, he was the best player on a pair of 55+ winners. RAPM - like with Hardaway - tells us he was outstanding in his prime - and while his prime didn't last that long, it was very impactful towards winning. His shooting was erratic - and he has many years with poor TS% - but he impacts the game in other ways as evidenced by his 5 Top 10 VORP Finishes including a pair of finishes in the Top 5.



Primary: Tim Hardaway
Alternate: Mookie Blaylock

Spoiler:

For fun a few comparisons I'd like to see discussion on.

1. Porter | Hardaway | Sharman (maybe?)
2. Cheeks | Mookie
3. And not sure who but we need a few of the volume scorers getting mentions.

Basically, who was the best in similar roles among those coming up. I think it'll help with where we place them in the project.

I think all 4 Point guards listed here are excellent candidates. I see very little separation. This post is to help create awareness for all 4 and I'd be fine with any of them getting in.

We have enough evidence that RAPM views each highly (which I'll speak to), but one arbitrary cut-off from the Box Score that I used was high impact & very high impact. This treats a year as high impact if VORP is above 4, PER is above 18 or WS is above 8; it treats a year as very high impact if VORP is above 5, PER is above 20 or WS is above 10.

Porter brought spacing and was ahead of his time. A strong 3 point shooter who netted 63% TS in his best year ('91), Porter was a solid point guard who was an excellent #2 for outstanding offenses from '88-'92 that netted fantastic offensive ratings of an average +3.2 over that time horizon. Porter has the most WS of this bunch as NPI RAPM views him favorably late into his career. While we don't know what the metric would've viewed him as during his prime, we can infer it would be likely to think highly of him. I view him as a very efficient player - strong TS%'s, solid defender, achieved strong TO economy in the last half of his prime and helped key powerful offenses. I view him as a poor man's Chris Paul.

Relative to the group, I think Porter brings the highest peak - I really like his '91 season - he also leads in Win Shares. My arbitrary box score rating gives him 3 very high impact years and 3 high impact years.

Watch on YouTube

Cheeks was an outstanding floor general - I view him as a poor man's John Stockton but with a bit more athletic prowess. A superb defender who is 5th in steals all time and made 5 consecutive All-Defensive teams. Although Cheeks maxes out at 15 PPG, he's an efficient shooter who has a career TS of 57% with several seasons at or right at 60%. Based on Sixer +/- data that we have access too from the 80's that Trex has posted, we know that impact data thinks highly of him.

While he was the least aggressive playmaker of the quartet, he still has 3 years at over 8 assists per game.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 1 very high impact year - the least of the bunch & 5 high impact years.

While scoring wise, the below video is an aberration, you see the aggressive defense, the high energy & the general enthusiasm for the game. He was past his prime by the time I was watching games, but he was still fun to watch even in his post prime. I view him as the weakest of the four - but I think it's perfectly reasonable that our fearless leader disagrees.

Watch on YouTube

Mookie Blaylock was an erratic player who put it together for a few years in Atlanta - leading successful Hawk teams including a pair of 55+ game winners as their best player. Blaylock may have been an even better defender than Cheeks - making All-Defense 6 times. He was an erratic shooter to say the least who needed to work on his shot selection - he finishes with TS% over 50 just 3 times & peaks at only 55 - but he was TO resilient for a PG, finishing his career at 14%. He's an aggressive ball thief who finishes in Top 10 in steals virtually every year and leads the league in steals multiple times without having to gamble. He rebounds well for a guard as well - leading this group in rebounding %. In the playoffs, he suffered offensively most years - but had a tendency to shut down the opposition defensively - as the video will show. RAPM views him very highly in '97 & even as he starts to exit his prime in '98 & '99.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 4 very high impact years and 1 high impact year. He's the most volatile of the group, but for me, he has the best sustained peak.

Watch on YouTube

Tim Hardaway is my pick from this group. A point guard is supposed to be a playmaker and drive the offense. Hardaway does this the best. He's by far the most dynamic scoring threat of the pack - the only player to average 20 PPG & he does so 5 times while maintaining a 14% TO economy or better in all years but '95. Of course, the thing that really seperates him apart is his ability to create plays for others - he has a CAREER assist % of 37.9% Blaylock achieves that figure just once in his career and the rest never do even for one season. His 5 year RAPM - which includes 3 post-prime years from '97-'01 - views him as an ALl-Star when the data is chained and elite for '97 & '98.

He excels in two different environments - the high scoring Golden State situation and the rock-fight oriented Heat squad with Alonzo Mourning. He - for me - has the 2nd most impressive peak, leading the Heat to 61 games & the ECF on the heels of a monster playoff performance vs. the Knicks. Later in his career, he goes from an explosive athlete to a canny intelligent player.

He's not as strong a defender as Blaylock or Cheeks - but he's pesky and can force turnovers.

His playoffs is a bit of a roller coaster, skewing slightly negative - but is highlighted by strong performances vs. NY in '97 & '98, & a fantastic run in '91.

I chose to go with a GSW era video, but that's because that's how I personally choose to remember him - as part of Run TMC.

My arbitrary box score metric gives him 3 very high impact years & 5 high impact years - the most total high impact or above years of the group.

Watch on YouTube

Primary: Tim Hardaway
Alternate: Blaylock

[SactoKingsFan]

Primary Vote: Vlade Divac

One of the more underrated defensive bigs. Arguably a legit defensive anchor based on the RAPM data we have and prime DBPM. Wasn't known as a great rim protector but had a stretch during his prime as a good shot blocker. Divac was also a very good post defender, mobile enough to effectively defend the PnR, had active hands and was quite skilled at drawing offensive fouls.


On the offensive end Divac brought all-time great passing and vision, soft hands, good shooting range for a center and solid to good low post scoring. Had the passing, vision and court awareness to frequently run the offense through the mid to high post. We also know Divac was a good leader and could be one of the more impactful players on a contender.


One of only 7 players with at least 13000 points, 9000 rebounds, 3000 assists and 1500 blocks. The others are Kareem, Garnett, Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem and P. Gasol. This shouldn't automatically bump Divac over other candidates, but it’s an indicator of his well-rounded skill set and good longevity.

Alt: Tim Hardaway

Sent from my ONEPLUS 3T using Tapatalk

[dhsilv2]

Vote Mookie Blaylock

What I like. Elite defensive guard that is backed up by RAPM data and box score stats. He also easily passes the eye test with some of the videos posted by others. i'm not aware of any intangible issues (and an fyi for those trying to get me to move a vote or bring your guy in next, intangibles are a huge selling point that can sway me). A strong peak by most metrics.

What I don't like. Wasn't much of a scorer and despite a nice peak assist number, not a lot of elite passing total years. Limited playoff sample sizes. Despite the 6x all defensive selections, only a 1 time allstar.

Alt Tim Hardaway

I'm looking at Cheeks and Vlade next. And after that I'm likely going to just go ahead and vote Melo. That said might have to look at King and Tiny there.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #10:

Carmelo Anthony - 1 (trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mookie Blaylock - 1 (dhsilv2)
Vlade Divac - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


About 24 hours until runoff.

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[Dr Positivity]

Vote Bob Dandridge

Dandridge is a very good wing for his era. He is an 18-20ppg wing for 9 years and I believe is a good defender as he makes 1st team All-defense in 79 along with finishing 5th in MVP and 2nd team All-NBA that season. He plays a key role on 2 champions and 4 Finals with Kareem Bucks core and then late 70s Bullets. I believe compared to some of the other candidates getting votes his combination of quality play and longevity should get consideration.

2nd: Kawhi Leonard

[Clyde Frazier]

Re: Mel Daniels, I just can’t see an argument for him over Carmelo due to weak longevity. By his 7th season he was already declining, and his last 2 seasons (only 1 of which was a full season) don’t have much added value. There’s also the caveat of his best seasons coming in the early years of the ABA, which were weaker in competition relative to later seasons. I don’t heavily subscribe to this (Hawkins’ play in the early ABA days is still staggering, for example), but it is a knock nonetheless.

Vote 1 - Carmelo Anthony

Vote 2 - Tiny Archibald

- 14 seasons
- 6x all NBA (two 2nd, four 3rd)
- 1 top 3 and 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 1x scoring champ

Players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range:

VORP

George Gervin 32.2 *-1 season
Bobby Jones 32
Dan Issel 31.2 *-3 seasons
Steve Nash 31.2
Carmelo Anthony 29.4
James Worthy 28.5
Kevin Johnson 28
Chris Bosh 27.5
Tony Parker 27
Bob McAdoo 26.5 *-1 season
Dave Cowens 26.2 *-3 seasons
Alonzo Mourning 24

*Number of seasons played prior to 73-74 where stat could not be calculated

Win Shares

In this case the total # of win shares speaks to Carmelo’s solid longevity. As a reference point, his prime WS/48 from 06-14 is .149 and he peaked at .184.

Hal Greer 102.7
Alex English 100.7
Grant Hilll 99.9
Allen Iverson 99
McGrady 97.3
Carmelo Anthony 97
Bobby Jones 94.1
Ben Wallace 93.5
Kevin Johnson 92.8
Sam Jones 92.3
Bob Cousy 91.1
James Harden 91.3
Sidney Moncrief 90.3
Dennis Rodman 89.8
Alonzo Mourning 89.7
Bob McAdoo 89.1
Dave Cowens 86.3
Chris Webber 84.7
James Worthy 81.2

This should already be evident by the length of my post, but i’m not claiming “melo should already be in based on VORP and win shares alone!” They’re just a few metrics to look at in comparison to other players already voted in. The “then what about this guy?” argument is essentially saying “let’s just focus on the why not instead of why when it comes to melo”, which is a constant theme it seems.

In the seasons post 2014 top 100 project, the PG situation in new york did not improve at all:

14-15: Shane Larkin, Langston Galloway, 37 yr old prigioni, 33 yr old calderon

15-16: Langston Galloway, rookie Jerian Grant, 34 yr old Caldeorn — this PG rotation was so poor that carmelo ended up leading the team in APG and just about equaled calderon in AST%

16-17: Rose, Jennings, rookie Ron Baker

Jennings was really the one penetrate and dish PG the knicks had in those 3 seasons. He even seemed to buy in to the fact that he can’t shoot and really got everyone involved. Of course, he had rose starting in front of him, so his time on the floor with melo was limited. He was used more in bench lineups that actually thrived, relatively speaking.

In an era where dynamic PG play is paramount, knicks management abhorrently ignored the position. I don’t think you can find such ineptitude in a front office with playoff aspirations outside of the cousins-era kings.

Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.

He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He had a deceptively quick second jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possessed a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he was really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He isn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.

Carmelo had the full repertoire going with his career high 62 pts against charlotte last season (they ranked 5th in DRTG):

Watch on YouTube

I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #62, and I think a 28 spot gap between the two is pushing it. Take a look at how they compare over their first 11 seasons (dominique actually comes off as worse if you look at his whole career):

http://bkref.com/tiny/KSWoH

They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier. I noted trex's argument in past threads about nique consistently carrying offenses with not much support. It's a valid point, although again it's 28 spots later.

There always seemed to be this all or nothing evaluation of carmelo where he’d be expected to be as good as lebron / durant (which he obviously isn’t), or he’s barely a top 20 player in the league. You may want to fault him for forcing his way to NY, but let’s not pretend like many players voted in already haven’t done the same.

ronnymac brings up a good point about low turnovers being a plus for high usage players. Below are are 20+ PPG scorers in the playoffs (excluding centers) sorted by TO% (best to worst):

http://bkref.com/tiny/HO11E

Of course there are guys at the “bottom” who were very successful, but the lower TO% can help offset some of the decrease in efficiency we see with carmelo in the playoffs.

Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:

Watch on YouTube

For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.

http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ

[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]

I’m aware that he hasn’t been quite as clutch over the last few seasons, but i attribute some of that to fatigue (he led the league in MPG last season) and the makeup of his teams. He’s still had his fair share of clutch moments since coming to NY, and hit multiple game winners during his first season here. He did give us this gem in 2012 as well:

Watch on YouTube

Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.

CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK

04 - 11th / 2nd
05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
06 - 15th / 9th
07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
08 - 11th / 2nd
09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
10 - 8th / 3rd
11 - 15th / 6th
12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
13 - 7th / 9th

Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far.

It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with. Some more details on his recent playoff loses:

09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team.

He had some great performances during that run.

11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively.

Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.

12 - Disastrous # of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.

13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.

As for defense, the last few seasons specifically he hasn’t been the same player physically. I’ve never claimed him to be a plus defender, even in his prime. I’m now reminded of some data i gathered in the 2014 project that i haven’t added here:

While not perfect, take a look at how the below SFs have performed against carmelo vs. their career averages. Sure, camrelo may not have been guarding them the whole time, but it's a large enough sample size to at least uncover any red flags.

(TS% or eFG% not available for head to head data)

Durant - 27.9 PPG on 43/41/87 (career 27.3 PPG on 48/38/88)

LeBron - 25.9 PPG on 49/27/70 (career 27.4 PPG on 50/34/75)

Gay - 18.6 PPG on 44/22/72 (career 18.4 PPG on 45/34/79)

George - 15.1 PPG on 45/34/77 (career 15.3 PPG on 43/36/83)

Pierce - 23.1 PPG on 50/41/80 (career 20.9 PPG on 45/37/81)

Granger - 16.6 PPG on 45/39/88 (career 16.8 PPG on 43/38/85)

Caron Butler - 12.4 PPG on 43/38/84 (career 14.5 PPG on 43/34/85)

McGrady - 19.6 PPG on 45/44/82 (career 19.6 PPG on 44/34/75)

Deng - 17.1 PPG on 45/36/83 (career 16.9 PPG on 46/33/77)

Josh Howard - 12.7 PPG on 44/31/79 (career 14.3 PPG on 45/33/77)

Richard Jefferson - 14.2 PPG on 51/43/66 (career 14 PPG on 47/38/77)

Stephen Jackson - 17.4 PPG on 35/33/86 (career 15.1 PPG on 41/33/80)

Of the 12 players, 6 scored the same or less than their career averages against carmelo. Those that scored more were only by marginal amounts. Efficiency ranges from lower to somewhat higher. No red flags here.

That’s 11 seasons of data. It doesn’t paint the picture of an egregious defender.

Here are the best players carmelo’s played with over the course of his career: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season, in shape felton and porzingis' rookie/soph year.

Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Porzingis and carmelo actually had great chemistry until rose came along, but their timelines unfortunately didn't match up. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 2009 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.

With regard to how carmelo’s career is perceived, I always go back to pierce before garnett and allen came along. Even if we agree that pierce is the better player, he had only been to the conf finals once before that trade, and i’m not sure how his career progresses without those trades being made. Does he stick with it in boston and not make anymore playoff runs? Does he eventually go to another team? I just wonder how carmelo would be looked at had he been fortunate enough to play with teammates of that caliber in his prime.

[penbeast0]

Re: Mel Daniels, I just can’t see an argument for him ....

Yeah, I'm getting a strong feeling he's just not going in at all. No one even has him on their short list, but when I saw him play, he looked like a helluva player. Only saw Hawkins in the NBA after the serious knee surgery and he didn't look as impressive although his numbers from the ABA's opening season paint him as peak TMac equivalent.

Trouble is that I've seen Carmelo a lot too and he just looks like another high volume gunner to me. I don't see much other value and don't see that he's a good enough gunner to be more than Mark Aguirre was and Aguirre actually was on a legendary NBA champion team (though he was only a 14 ppg scorer while Dumars led both championship teams in scoring plus had an excellent defensive rep ).

[RSCD3_]

Vote carmelo anthony

For his roles as a primary creator and potential great secondary initiator and strong rebounder. As for the scorers still left, everyone either has a much shorter longevity or is actual more one dimensional than him as a player. Underrated defensively in his new york years and became a acceptable passer at worst and a good one at best

[trex_8063]

Vote carmelo anthony

For his roles as a primary creator and potential great secondary initiator and strong rebounder. As for the scorers still left, everyone either has a much shorter longevity or is actual more one dimensional than him as a player. Underrated defensively in his new york years and became a acceptable passer at worst and a good one at best

I need your secondary vote ASAP. Please respond right away, so I can kick this one into runoff roughly on time.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #16:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mookie Blaylock - 1 (dhsilv2)
Vlade Divac - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)
Bob Dandridge - 1 (Dr Positivity)


Going to the secondary votes, note that Hardaway had more secondary votes than any of the other single-vote recipients. So we'll move to a runoff between Timmy and Melo:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 3 (pandrade83, dhsilv2, SactoKingsFan)


If you're not shown here, please state your pick between these two with brief reasons why.
Still haven't heard back from RSCD3_ regarding his secondary pick, but it wouldn't prevent these two from being in the runoff; the only thing his secondary pick could potentially change is adding in a third candidate for a 3-way runoff.

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[Clyde Frazier]

My main thing that knocks hardaway down a peg:

From 92-93 to 94-95, he missed a total of 118 games, which included the entire 93-94 season due to a knee injury. Here’s how the warriors fared:

92-93: 34-48, 18th SRS

93-94: 50-32, 15th SRS (rookie webber who put up 17.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.2 BPG on 55.6% TS, traded the next season)

94-95: 26-56, 22nd SRS

As i’ve said many times before, being able to stay on the court matters. That’s a pretty significant gap in missed time. He also missed 30 games in 99-00.

Additionally, the second half of hardaway’s playoff career leaves a lot to be desired. And while it may seem like he had some memorable playoff highs, he still only got out of the first 3 times, with a lone conference finals performance. This is back when the first round was only best of 5. Also, this isn't a chris paul situation, either where he was killing it with his production despite the first round exits.

Is it close in many areas between him and melo? Sure, but i see a clear divide based on the reasons above.

[RSCD3_]

Thru post #16:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mookie Blaylock - 1 (dhsilv2)
Vlade Divac - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)
Bob Dandridge - 1 (Dr Positivity)


Going to the secondary votes, note that Hardaway had more secondary votes than any of the other single-vote recipients. So we'll move to a runoff between Timmy and Melo:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 3 (pandrade83, dhsilv2, SactoKingsFan)


If you're not shown here, please state your pick between these two with brief reasons why.
Still haven't heard back from RSCD3_ regarding his secondary pick, but it wouldn't prevent these two from being in the runoff; the only thing his secondary pick could potentially change is adding in a third candidate for a 3-way runoff.

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Oh sorry second pick is Tiny Archibald

[trex_8063]

Thru post #16:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 1 (pandrade83)
Mookie Blaylock - 1 (dhsilv2)
Vlade Divac - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)
Bob Dandridge - 1 (Dr Positivity)


Going to the secondary votes, note that Hardaway had more secondary votes than any of the other single-vote recipients. So we'll move to a runoff between Timmy and Melo:

Carmelo Anthony - 3 (RSCD3_, Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Tim Hardaway - 3 (pandrade83, dhsilv2, SactoKingsFan)


If you're not shown here, please state your pick between these two with brief reasons why.
Still haven't heard back from RSCD3_ regarding his secondary pick, but it wouldn't prevent these two from being in the runoff; the only thing his secondary pick could potentially change is adding in a third candidate for a 3-way runoff.

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Oh sorry second pick is Tiny Archibald

Thank you. That doesn't change anything: still a 2-way runoff between Timmy and Melo, then.