General NBA discussion (2018 offseason + 2018-19 season)

[ardee]

Wow Draymond is such an idiot. Cost his team the chip in 2016 with his nut kicking shenanigans and now has caused issues with his reactionary comments and emotions again. Warriors have looked horrible after this incident happened. They looked good against the Nets and Clips until Ot when Kd fouled out. Theres no chance Kd stays either and Draymonds offense is really bad these days. Hes nowhere near the offensive player he was in 2016 and he cant even play defense as consistently as he used to given his size playing big man defense. Any team that offers him the supermax is insane. His game isnt gonna age well at all.

Exactly why I made the thread about the Warriors not being contenders if Durant left. With Draymond getting so much worse Curry can't handle that kind of load alone.

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[Colbinii]

Wow Draymond is such an idiot. Cost his team the chip in 2016 with his nut kicking shenanigans and now has caused issues with his reactionary comments and emotions again. Warriors have looked horrible after this incident happened. They looked good against the Nets and Clips until Ot when Kd fouled out. Theres no chance Kd stays either and Draymonds offense is really bad these days. Hes nowhere near the offensive player he was in 2016 and he cant even play defense as consistently as he used to given his size playing big man defense. Any team that offers him the supermax is insane. His game isnt gonna age well at all.

Exactly why I made the thread about the Warriors not being contenders if Durant left. With Draymond getting so much worse Curry can't handle that kind of load alone.

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Not only that but their bench isn't close to what it was in 2015 and 2016.

[ronnymac2]

Wow Draymond is such an idiot. Cost his team the chip in 2016 with his nut kicking shenanigans and now has caused issues with his reactionary comments and emotions again. Warriors have looked horrible after this incident happened. They looked good against the Nets and Clips until Ot when Kd fouled out. Theres no chance Kd stays either and Draymonds offense is really bad these days. Hes nowhere near the offensive player he was in 2016 and he cant even play defense as consistently as he used to given his size playing big man defense. Any team that offers him the supermax is insane. His game isnt gonna age well at all.

I don't understand this perspective at all. Yes, Draymond has made mistakes, but don't forget that the whole reason GSW has won 3 out of 4 is because of Draymond. They won and became elite in 2015 when Draymond's role and MPG increased. Then Kerr kicked everything into high gear in 2016 with Draymond taking on an even bigger role resulting in 73 wins. Yes he got suspended and that should be held against him, but it still took his co-star not performing well and a GOAT-level performance from the GOAT to barely sqeak by GSW.

Now this is where Draymond gets underrated. The guy is cerebral. He identified a rival in OKC and was able to read Durant and coax him to come to GSW. I think the super team meme is overrated, as I don't think that move made GSW invincible, but they don't need to be invincible if their primary rival out West is taken out. Draymond saw Durant was a true threat after it was KD who really flummoxed GSW and Green specifically with his mobility on defense in that 2016 series. If you're having trouble beating them, invite them to join you so you don't need to even face them. It's cold, ruthless, and pragmatic, and it resulted in two more titles. And like it or not, it does appear Draymond is a cultural leader and cultivator of a certain demeanor in GSW that has been successful.

Now we can get into Draymond's off-court power moves like investments, joint ventures with mogul LeBron James, and distributing himself via the right channels. On the court, people were saying the same thing about his decline last year...up until the playoffs when he still looked like the best defensive player in the league with a fiery motor and tremendous anticipation and communication skills.

This guy is smart as hell. Honestly, take away this guy's basketball talent and I still see him making 300K a year working sales at a big pharma company (plus stock options and bonuses). Draymond Green was the architect of a modern NBA dynasty. Of course he's worth the max wherever he goes, and he will damn sure get it.

[Basileus777]

Now calling Draymond Green "the architect of a modern NBA dynasty," is where you go way too far. I don't even know where you get this from unless you're giving Green sole credit for Durant coming to GS (which he likely doesn't deserve), but even then that isn't enough for that label.

And you don't pay people for the past, paying Draymond Green $40 million a year into his mid thirties is just the sort of mistake that sets franchises back years. The supermax contract is pretty much a trap, players eligible for it usually aren't worth it for the duration of the contract and if you miss it can be franchise crippling. Even Chris Paul's deal looks really awful right now. The Rockets aren't going to have any roster flexibility now until James Harden is out of his prime.

[ardee]

Now calling Draymond Green "the architect of a modern NBA dynasty," is where you go way too far. I don't even know where you get this from unless you're giving Green sole credit for Durant coming to GS (which he likely doesn't deserve), but even then that isn't enough for that label.

And you don't pay people for the past, paying Draymond Green $40 million a year into his mid thirties is just the sort of mistake that sets franchises back years. The supermax contract is pretty much a trap, players eligible for it usually aren't worth it for the duration of the contract and if you miss it can be franchise crippling. Even Chris Paul's deal looks really awful right now. The Rockets aren't going to have any roster flexibility now until James Harden is out of his prime.

2016 and 2017 Draymond is absolutely worth the supermax wherever he goes because that's a top 8 player. 2020 onward Draymond Green... if this trajectory continues then no.

[Dr Spaceman]

Now calling Draymond Green "the architect of a modern NBA dynasty," is where you go way too far. I don't even know where you get this from unless you're giving Green sole credit for Durant coming to GS (which he likely doesn't deserve), but even then that isn't enough for that label.

And you don't pay people for the past, paying Draymond Green $40 million a year into his mid thirties is just the sort of mistake that sets franchises back years. The supermax contract is pretty much a trap, players eligible for it usually aren't worth it for the duration of the contract and if you miss it can be franchise crippling. Even Chris Paul's deal looks really awful right now. The Rockets aren't going to have any roster flexibility now until James Harden is out of his prime.

He’s calling Dray the architect of a dynasty because over their 4 year run he has been their best player and when you consider Steph’s various maladies it’s really not an arguable point. Durant has only been there two years. Steph has been hurt and underperformed 2/4 years. Dray has been there, every night, and it’s still not clear who is the better player between he and Steph. He also has done more to shape their culture than pretty much and player I’m aware of.

Doesn’t mean he’s worth the Supermax going forward. But TBH I see no issue with his phrasing.

[ardee]

AD has quietly put up 42/13/7 on 58% from the field the last two games... I think we're going to see the Keyser Soze run everyone expected at the beginning of the season but got derailed with that injury.

30/13/5 on 55% seems very possible, those are peak Shaq like numbers. Feeling awfully good about him as my preseason MVP pick.

[Pillendreher]

He’s calling Dray the architect of a dynasty because over their 4 year run he has been their best player and when you consider Steph’s various maladies it’s really not an arguable point.

Eh, yes it most certainly is. To quote my guy Russ: Don't get it twisted. This is a beyond absurd take. Curry is the guy behind this whole thing. Green fits perfectly with his skillset, but he's nowhere close to being the best player on that squad.

[BasketballFan7]

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman isn't a new book, but it's an excellent read. It's easy to connect its principles to basketball (and nearly anything else in life). Highly recommended!

[ardee]

Warriors are 12-6. I wonder what the preseason odds were on this being their record after 18 games.

So much for the 70 talk two weeks ago. This is probably the worst Warriors team in 5 years

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[cpower]

Warriors are 12-6. I wonder what the preseason odds were on this being their record after 18 games.

So much for the 70 talk two weeks ago. This is probably the worst Warriors team in 5 years

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KD and Klay has regressed. They miss Curry more than ever.

[ardee]

Warriors are 12-6. I wonder what the preseason odds were on this being their record after 18 games.

So much for the 70 talk two weeks ago. This is probably the worst Warriors team in 5 years

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KD and Klay has regressed. They miss Curry more than ever.

I mean if you're talking regression, Draymond has gotten worse by the largest margin. In 2016 he was a triple double threat, 40% from 3 guy and DPoY candidate all in one.

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[cpower]

Warriors are 12-6. I wonder what the preseason odds were on this being their record after 18 games.

So much for the 70 talk two weeks ago. This is probably the worst Warriors team in 5 years

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KD and Klay has regressed. They miss Curry more than ever.

I mean if you're talking regression, Draymond has gotten worse by the largest margin. In 2016 he was a triple double threat, 40% from 3 guy and DPoY candidate all in one.

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in 2016 he was taking 10 FGA a game and now he is taking 6. His offense has gotten a little worse but when he is healthy he has been more consistent than KD and Klay. I dont think there is anything wrong with his plays.

[Reservoirdawgs]

He’s calling Dray the architect of a dynasty because over their 4 year run he has been their best player and when you consider Steph’s various maladies it’s really not an arguable point. Durant has only been there two years. Steph has been hurt and underperformed 2/4 years. Dray has been there, every night, and it’s still not clear who is the better player between he and Steph. He also has done more to shape their culture than pretty much and player I’m aware of.

Doesn’t mean he’s worth the Supermax going forward. But TBH I see no issue with his phrasing.

How is it not clear? Since the 2014-15 season here is the RPM for both Steph and Dray:

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Four-Year Average
Steph 9.34 8.51 7.41 6.65 8.0
Dray 6.80 8.97 7.14 4.04 6.7

Steph is clearly the better player. Now, if you wanted to argue that Dray's impact is almost as strong and his importance is almost up there with Steph then I would not argue that point. While Steph is one of the most amazing offensive forces the game has ever seen, I think it's fair to say that Green's versatility on offense and defense helps make Steph's job easier. I don't think it's a shock that in the playoff series he's struggled the team has had the most difficulty (2016 OKC and 2018 Rockets come to mind, although he had an amazing 2016 Finals and his team lost). I would also agree that Dray has shaped their culture more than any other player on that roster. Green is one of my favorite players of the last five years and he would be on the shortlist of who I would want to start an NBA franchise with. But to say that we don't know who's better - him or Steph - is pretty ludicrous.

[Missing Rings]

He’s calling Dray the architect of a dynasty because over their 4 year run he has been their best player and when you consider Steph’s various maladies it’s really not an arguable point. Durant has only been there two years. Steph has been hurt and underperformed 2/4 years. Dray has been there, every night, and it’s still not clear who is the better player between he and Steph. He also has done more to shape their culture than pretty much and player I’m aware of.

Doesn’t mean he’s worth the Supermax going forward. But TBH I see no issue with his phrasing.

How is it not clear? Since the 2014-15 season here is the RPM for both Steph and Dray:

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Four-Year Average
Steph 9.34 8.51 7.41 6.65 8.0
Dray 6.80 8.97 7.14 4.04 6.7

Steph is clearly the better player. Now, if you wanted to argue that Dray's impact is almost as strong and his importance is almost up there with Steph then I would not argue that point. While Steph is one of the most amazing offensive forces the game has ever seen, I think it's fair to say that Green's versatility on offense and defense helps make Steph's job easier. I don't think it's a shock that in the playoff series he's struggled the team has had the most difficulty (2016 OKC and 2018 Rockets come to mind, although he had an amazing 2016 Finals and his team lost). I would also agree that Dray has shaped their culture more than any other player on that roster. Green is one of my favorite players of the last five years and he would be on the shortlist of who I would want to start an NBA franchise with. But to say that we don't know who's better - him or Steph - is pretty ludicrous.

RPM just measures the player in their role. Comparing a PF and defensive anchor with a defensive sieve and offensive anchor isn't using RPM correctly.

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[Basileus777]

Green's been a negative impact player on offense this season. He's not the same guy on that end, he can't shoot and defenses don't respect his scoring at all. His playmaking isn't having the same impact either without the guys around him playing at historic levels.

[Dr Spaceman]

I continue to be amazed at how many people speak so highly of Devon Booker. He’s really, really not good. I mean at this point he’s shown to be a mid-tier needle mover on offense and a complete disaster on the other end. He’s Lou Williams, as ive been saying since his rookie year.

If he ends up becoming a top tier offensive player it will be one of the most unprecedented rises in NBA history. Look at every elite offensive player and by year three they’ve almost doubled Booker’s career best OBPM. He’ll, look at the next over of offensive players: Lillard as a rookie was better than Booker’s year 4. Kemba as a sophomore had a much better season than Devin’s ever had. Kyrie almost doubled booker’s best OBPM in his sophomore and junior seasons.

This dude just has no chance of being a building block player. I’m sorry but guys with star talent do not exist on a team that performs this badly. It’s unprecedented. Sucks for Suns fans who have a lot invested in the guy but his contract is going to really hurt them (maybe as badly as the Wiggins one) and you’re not going anywhere in the West with him anything better than your 4th or maybe third best player.

[Reservoirdawgs]

RPM just measures the player in their role. Comparing a PF and defensive anchor with a defensive sieve and offensive anchor isn't using RPM correctly.

RPM measures how many points each player adds or subtracts to the team's net scoring margin per 100 possessions played by trying to isolate teammates as best as it can. Both Steph and Dray have different roles (can easily be seen through their ORPM and DRPM) but their team impact can still be seen through their overall RPM. While I will easily say Curry is the Warriors best and most important player, Dray's overall impact for four straight years (pretty close to Curry, sometimes slightly better) shows that he has a huge impact on his team's performance. Dray's four-year impact of being near the top of the league is undeniable. I have a hard time seeing how Dray would be considered the better player than Curry, however.

[eminence]

I continue to be amazed at how many people speak so highly of Devon Booker. He’s really, really not good. I mean at this point he’s shown to be a mid-tier needle mover on offense and a complete disaster on the other end. He’s Lou Williams, as ive been saying since his rookie year.

If he ends up becoming a top tier offensive player it will be one of the most unprecedented rises in NBA history. Look at every elite offensive player and by year three they’ve almost doubled Booker’s career best OBPM. He’ll, look at the next over of offensive players: Lillard as a rookie was better than Booker’s year 4. Kemba as a sophomore had a much better season than Devin’s ever had. Kyrie almost doubled booker’s best OBPM in his sophomore and junior seasons.

This dude just has no chance of being a building block player. I’m sorry but guys with star talent do not exist on a team that performs this badly. It’s unprecedented. Sucks for Suns fans who have a lot invested in the guy but his contract is going to really hurt them (maybe as badly as the Wiggins one) and you’re not going anywhere in the West with him anything better than your 4th or maybe third best player.

Devin Booker is not all that great right now, I agree, but I think you write off his chances of growing a bit too much. He's still very young (slightly younger than rookie Lillard), and there have been a fair number of guards who blossomed later in their careers, though admittedly most tended more towards a play-making role than Booker does (Cassell, Billups, Nash come to mind).

[Missing Rings]

RPM just measures the player in their role. Comparing a PF and defensive anchor with a defensive sieve and offensive anchor isn't using RPM correctly.

RPM measures how many points each player adds or subtracts to the team's net scoring margin per 100 possessions played by trying to isolate teammates as best as it can. Both Steph and Dray have different roles (can easily be seen through their ORPM and DRPM) but their team impact can still be seen through their overall RPM. While I will easily say Curry is the Warriors best and most important player, Dray's overall impact for four straight years (pretty close to Curry, sometimes slightly better) shows that he has a huge impact on his team's performance. Dray's four-year impact of being near the top of the league is undeniable. I have a hard time seeing how Dray would be considered the better player than Curry, however.

RPM =/= goodness. Do you think that Covington is as good as Anthony Davis or that Tyus Jonsa was better than Draymond Green last season? Of course not. But, what RPM tells us is Tyus Jones played great in his role as did Robert Covington. Neither of these guys were forced with the responsibilities of a Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis yet they come out around the same in RPM.

While Curry's RPM is higher than Draymond's over the 4 year stretch you mentioned, it doesn't mean that Curry was a better basketball player. It simply says that Curry was in a role designed for himself and was successful in doing so (like Jones and Covington were), more so than Draymond.

The end conclusion I also come to for this discussion is that the entire offense is built to maximize Curry and therefore he will also be on the top of impact charts.

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