Better value: Aaron Gordon at 23M vs. Doug McDermott at 7M

[Cassius]

A new poll, as a tangent from the homepage poll for grading the Pacers' offseason.

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User jk31 and I got into a discussion about the Pacers' offseason. I think they'd have been better off throwing a max deal at (RFA) Aaron Gordon, who got $19M/4 to stay in Orlando, as opposed to spending the same amount of money on Doug McDermott ($7M/3) and Tyreke Evans $12M/1. I'll admit that it would have cost more to get Gordon out of Orlando, so I've inflated his contract to $23M for the purposes of the poll.

Ignoring team needs (where I think Gordon could have really helped Indiana), who would you rather have at these numbers?

[Dr Spaceman]

I don’t think either guy is good value.

McDermott is bad. Had a hot stretch in Dallas but kills you defensively and really isn’t even that good of a shooter. 3 years of him isn’t good, although the dollar amount isn’t crazy.

Gordon is good, would start on most teams, but the dollar amount is crazy. He probably won’t ever grow into that contract.

Honestly I’d probably take Doug. It’s a shorter deal and could be traded later on. Gordon’s contract has the potential to be really ugly while Doug’s is just a little confusing . I agent seen anything from Doug to make h]me believe he’ll be a player int he league but it doesn’t anchor you by taking up a fifth of the cap like Gordon.

[SHAQ32]

Where'd you get $23m from? He's making 21 next year and then 19, 18, 16 for 2020, 21 and 22

AG is currently the 44th highest paid player heading into next season. Considering his current production and upside, his deal definitely isn't bad or 'crazy' relatively speaking

[Owly]

Where'd you get $23m from? He's making 21 next year and then 19, 18, 16 for 2020, 21 and 22

AG is currently the 44th highest paid player heading into next season. Considering his current production and upside, his deal definitely isn't bad or 'crazy' relatively speaking

I'll admit that it would have cost more to get Gordon out of Orlando, so I've inflated his contract to $23M for the purposes of the poll.?

[uberhikari]

I don’t think either guy is good value.

McDermott is bad. Had a hot stretch in Dallas but kills you defensively and really isn’t even that good of a shooter. 3 years of him isn’t good, although the dollar amount isn’t crazy.

Gordon is good, would start on most teams, but the dollar amount is crazy. He probably won’t ever grow into that contract.

Honestly I’d probably take Doug. It’s a shorter deal and could be traded later on. Gordon’s contract has the potential to be really ugly while Doug’s is just a little confusing . I agent seen anything from Doug to make h]me believe he’ll be a player int he league but it doesn’t anchor you by taking up a fifth of the cap like Gordon.

Over his last ~700 attemps, McDermott shot 40.8% from 3. That's good by just about any definition. And given today's insane salary cap, that's definitely worth $7 M.

[Cassius]

I probably should have added that Gordon just turned 23 last week, while Doug will be 27 in January.

[Cassius]

I don’t think either guy is good value.

McDermott is bad. Had a hot stretch in Dallas but kills you defensively and really isn’t even that good of a shooter. 3 years of him isn’t good, although the dollar amount isn’t crazy.

Gordon is good, would start on most teams, but the dollar amount is crazy. He probably won’t ever grow into that contract.

Honestly I’d probably take Doug. It’s a shorter deal and could be traded later on. Gordon’s contract has the potential to be really ugly while Doug’s is just a little confusing . I agent seen anything from Doug to make h]me believe he’ll be a player int he league but it doesn’t anchor you by taking up a fifth of the cap like Gordon.

Over his last ~700 attemps, McDermott shot 40.8% from 3. That's good by just about any definition. And given today's insane salary cap, that's definitely worth $7 M.

That's impressive, but if we're taking splits, can I counter by saying that these are Aaron's 3pt% numbers by quarter last season?

1st - 34.5
2nd - 38.5
3rd - 37.7
4th - 21.9
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoaa01/shooting/2018

I wouldn't expect the 4th Q drop to be an exception for most players, as fatigue hurts everyone, but that's very promising from a ball-handling PF with no point guard help. If he had shot 30% from 3 in the 4th, his overall average would have jumped from (a career high) 33.6% to 35.2% and all of a sudden, he begins comparing quite favorably to Paul Millsap from his last year in Atlanta

See comparison here

[skones]

I don’t think either guy is good value.

McDermott is bad. Had a hot stretch in Dallas but kills you defensively and really isn’t even that good of a shooter. 3 years of him isn’t good, although the dollar amount isn’t crazy.

Gordon is good, would start on most teams, but the dollar amount is crazy. He probably won’t ever grow into that contract.

Honestly I’d probably take Doug. It’s a shorter deal and could be traded later on. Gordon’s contract has the potential to be really ugly while Doug’s is just a little confusing . I agent seen anything from Doug to make h]me believe he’ll be a player int he league but it doesn’t anchor you by taking up a fifth of the cap like Gordon.

Over his last ~700 attemps, McDermott shot 40.8% from 3. That's good by just about any definition. And given today's insane salary cap, that's definitely worth $7 M.

That's impressive, but if we're taking splits, can I counter by saying that these are Aaron's 3pt% numbers by quarter last season?

1st - 34.5
2nd - 38.5
3rd - 37.7
4th - 21.9
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoaa01/shooting/2018

I wouldn't expect the 4th Q drop to be an exception for most players, as fatigue hurts everyone, but that's very promising from a ball-handling PF with no point guard help. If he had shot 30% from 3 in the 4th, his overall average would have jumped from (a career high) 33.6% to 35.2% and all of a sudden, he begins comparing quite favorably to Paul Millsap from his last year in Atlanta

See comparison here

Not sure why you'd choose quarters for Gordon, the guy was flat out bad from deep from the turn of the calendar year on. 64/155 41.2% vs. January on 51/186 27.4%. That's not just a quarter dip, that's a prolonged dip without any type of real recovery. Given his career norms, it's reasonable for people to trust one of those samples more than the other ESPECIALLY with the lack of improvement from the stripe.

[HeartBreakKid]

Aaron Gordon because Doug McDermott is a bad player. Doug McDermott is the type of player that contenders will never play because he's so crappy on defense, like Ryan Anderson.

I'd rather over pay Aaron Gordon because he's at least a good player and he is very young. (23 years old)

[Cassius]

Over his last ~700 attemps, McDermott shot 40.8% from 3. That's good by just about any definition. And given today's insane salary cap, that's definitely worth $7 M.

That's impressive, but if we're taking splits, can I counter by saying that these are Aaron's 3pt% numbers by quarter last season?

1st - 34.5
2nd - 38.5
3rd - 37.7
4th - 21.9
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoaa01/shooting/2018

I wouldn't expect the 4th Q drop to be an exception for most players, as fatigue hurts everyone, but that's very promising from a ball-handling PF with no point guard help. If he had shot 30% from 3 in the 4th, his overall average would have jumped from (a career high) 33.6% to 35.2% and all of a sudden, he begins comparing quite favorably to Paul Millsap from his last year in Atlanta

See comparison here

Not sure why you'd choose quarters for Gordon, the guy was flat out bad from deep from the turn of the calendar year on. 64/155 41.2% vs. January on 51/186 27.4%. That's not just a quarter dip, that's a prolonged dip without any type of real recovery. Given his career norms, it's reasonable for people to trust one of those samples more than the other ESPECIALLY with the lack of improvement from the stripe.

That's a good point, but even with that game-by-game dropoff, he still set a career high. Moreover, looking at the monthly splits you cited, he shot 20% from 3 in January and 35% overall that month. Remove that month and he's 37% for the year. He was clearly worn down by the time January rolled around.

[skones]

That's impressive, but if we're taking splits, can I counter by saying that these are Aaron's 3pt% numbers by quarter last season?

1st - 34.5
2nd - 38.5
3rd - 37.7
4th - 21.9
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gordoaa01/shooting/2018

I wouldn't expect the 4th Q drop to be an exception for most players, as fatigue hurts everyone, but that's very promising from a ball-handling PF with no point guard help. If he had shot 30% from 3 in the 4th, his overall average would have jumped from (a career high) 33.6% to 35.2% and all of a sudden, he begins comparing quite favorably to Paul Millsap from his last year in Atlanta

See comparison here

Not sure why you'd choose quarters for Gordon, the guy was flat out bad from deep from the turn of the calendar year on. 64/155 41.2% vs. January on 51/186 27.4%. That's not just a quarter dip, that's a prolonged dip without any type of real recovery. Given his career norms, it's reasonable for people to trust one of those samples more than the other ESPECIALLY with the lack of improvement from the stripe.

That's a good point, but even with that game-by-game dropoff, he still set a career high. Moreover, looking at the monthly splits you cited, he shot 20% from 3 in January and 35% overall that month. Remove that month and he's 37% for the year. He was clearly worn down by the time January rolled around.

And that's an oversimplication of how percentages work. 33% in February. 33% in March. 28% in April. Simply removing a single month when he's clearly trending downward because of being worn down as if other guys in the league don't have to endure an entire season of play seems very rose colored glasses. Hell, take away the first five games of the season for Gordon and he's down to 31.8% instead of the pick and choose month of January, that's nearly a full 2 percent fall on a blistering 5 games. Career high? Sure, definitely, but I think it's reasonable to question if he's able to even match that next season.

[Cassius]

Not sure why you'd choose quarters for Gordon, the guy was flat out bad from deep from the turn of the calendar year on. 64/155 41.2% vs. January on 51/186 27.4%. That's not just a quarter dip, that's a prolonged dip without any type of real recovery. Given his career norms, it's reasonable for people to trust one of those samples more than the other ESPECIALLY with the lack of improvement from the stripe.

That's a good point, but even with that game-by-game dropoff, he still set a career high. Moreover, looking at the monthly splits you cited, he shot 20% from 3 in January and 35% overall that month. Remove that month and he's 37% for the year. He was clearly worn down by the time January rolled around.

And that's an oversimplication of how percentages work. 33% in February. 33% in March. 28% in April. Simply removing a single month when he's clearly trending downward because of being worn down as if other guys in the league don't have to endure an entire season of play seems very rose colored glasses. Hell, take away the first five games of the season for Gordon and he's down to 31.8% instead of the pick and choose month of January, that's nearly a full 2 percent fall on a blistering 5 games. Career high? Sure, definitely, but I think it's reasonable to question if he's able to even match that next season.

I get, there are outliers. If we cut out his best and worst months he's still mediocre... in the right direction To be honest, I think we'd agree that shooting is probably the last reason why anyone would want him on our team.

[Texas Chuck]

Just as an FYI, this is a topic more suited to the Trades & Transaction Board where these types of value conversations are what the board is about. Rather than the PC board which largely ignores contract considerations and is instead more focused on on court performance.

I can assure you OP that the Trade Board would give you a lot more response on this type of topic and would suggest you post OP's like this there in the future.

end shameless plug

[uberhikari]

Aaron Gordon because Doug McDermott is a bad player. Doug McDermott is the type of player that contenders will never play because he's so crappy on defense, like Ryan Anderson.

I'd rather over pay Aaron Gordon because he's at least a good player and he is very young. (23 years old)

If I'm a GM, I'm not eating a $23 M/year contract for Gordon. McDermott is a good enough 3-point shooter to at least be used for 10-15 mpg. There's no point wasting cap space by overpaying for Gordon when it can be better utilized.

[bondom34]

Gordon and not particularly close. He's shown more in his time than McDermott, is younger, and a capable 2 way guy. McDermott is at best a spot minutes type shooter who you won't want to play heavy minutes.

[Cassius]

Just as an FYI, this is a topic more suited to the Trades & Transaction Board where these types of value conversations are what the board is about. Rather than the PC board which largely ignores contract considerations and is instead more focused on on court performance.

I can assure you OP that the Trade Board would give you a lot more response on this type of topic and would suggest you post OP's like this there in the future.

end shameless plug

Thanks for the info. I haven't posted outside the Raptors/wiretap board for a while, and never create new threads. Feel free to reclassify this if that's possible.