The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1

[sp6r=underrated]

This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..

This is insane. Even if you take their best defensive stretches there are multiple clubs that have put up better defensive stretches. I think you're given them bonus points for aesthetics.

Wrong maybe but not insane. The Heat were a very similar aesthetic team but had clear structural flaws. Watching those old Heat games you see them start to really lose their cool after 2-3 ball rotations. This is exactly what the Spurs would exploit against them time and time again. After that first seam the hole grows bigger as they get to the ball later and later. Doesn’t happen with the Rockets. Matter of fact the Rockets are actually more likely to close the seam than the reverse after multiple passes. You essentially have a split second to attack the opening before they close it. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s why they are isolated against far more than any defense since such things have been recorded, because they apply the bandaid at mind-blowing speed so all you’re left with is maybe a size mismatch if you’re lucky.

The Rox are also unique historically in that their rim protection lineup is also their switch lineup. Capela and Tucker can do anything out there, he’ll id trust Tucker on Steph Curry perhaps more than all but 1 or 2 other defenders in the league. No other defense can brag a big man like Capela who can hold his own as a helpside defender and a switch guy even on ones. He has to be pretty thin to be able to do this so he gives up a bit to beefier centers but the Rockets are very aggressive with double teams to help cover his back and force a lot of turnovers on such psossesssions.

What you get is a team that doesn’t give anything up. The one real weakness is Harden’s cement feet stopping dribble penetration but they do a wonderful job covering for that with switching and Tucker’s help side rotations. They dare teams to try to go to the post against them because they’re team thicc and they body people and fight and don’t give an inch. Harden himself is like in the top 5 percentile as a post defender. He doesn’t get enough credit for how hard he’s worked to tighten the screws and limit his liabilities. You see teams just give up against them and hope that Kevin durant can hit enough fade-aways over Eric Gordon. I have never seen a team that forces more pick and rolls to not generate any advantage and their switching and the way they play passing lanes actively discourages screening and passing, the backbone of any good offense. It becomes so costly for offenses with all the turnovers they just stop doing it which is what GSW did last year.

It’s borne out in the results. Holding very good offenses in Utah and Minny last year to -7 and -6 respectively and holding GSW to 105, 103 and 102 ORTG in 3/5 games is absurd. GSW was easily the best offense in recorded history and could barely muster a point per possession against them in their best games. I don’t know what other teams are capable of that performance.

Indy, Chi, Boston, Miami, Utah of course are contenders but each of those teams save Chicago had very clear structural flaws mostly with shooting big men and pick and roll containment. I don’t know what flaws Houston really has.

Sample size matters. You can't just utterly dismiss an entire season of results, and I'm referring to 2018 not 2019, and declare a team has the highest ceiling for "BLANK" over a 15 year period based on your visual analysis.

As an example take a look at what 08 Boston, who turned in an ATG great Defensive Regular Season, tossed out in the 08 PS

Atlanta: -4.3
Cleveland: -3.7
Detroit: -2
Los Angeles: -9.1! (and the RS numbers includes pre-Gasol).

I'm generally dumbfounded that you could consider Houston having a higher defensive ceiling than the KG Celtics.

Spurs 2013/16 (3, 3, 2, 1 Defensive RS Rank)
LAL: -15
GSW: -3.7
MEM: -8.1
MIA: -3.8
DAL: -.3
POR: -12.3
OKC: -7.2
MIA: -6.1
LAC: -4.4
MEM: -13.3
OKC: -4.6

Feel free to confirm the numbers this was a quick scan

The Leonard era Spurs are remembered for their ball movement, but what made them so successful in the PS, was their defense. It played at an insane level and was the reason they were never outscored in a PS series from 2013-16. Yes, they benefited from injuries at times but I don't see how you can consider the 2018-19 Rockets even at peak playing having a higher defensive ceiling.

[Dr Spaceman]

A structural flaw in that regard would be being a (well) below average defensive team. Even Paul-Harden-Tucker-Capela are 4.3 pp100p worse on defense tha the league average. At this point, I can't even comprehend what you're talking about here.

Last 6 games they have a defensive rating of 103 with games against Boston, Toronto, Philly (no Embiid), and GSW (no Durant) during that stretch. Their problem has always been health, they have been missing at least 2 starters for almost the whole year at this point.

I hate to say this, but 6 games sample is ridiculously low. Besides, here is further breakdown:

Boston ORtg: 112.3
Against Hou: 111.3

Toronto ORtg: 112.7
Against Hou: 105.3

Philly ORtg: 112.0
Against Hou: 91.7 (without Embiid)

Dallas ORtg: 108.5
Against Hou: 101.2

Charlotte ORtg: 110.9
Against Hou: 106.7

Warriors ORtg: 116.0
Against Hou: 117.9


They did excellent job against Sixers, but Philly without Embiid is not a great team. Another impressive performance against Raptors, full credit.
Other than that, there is nothing remarkable about this streak. They defended well against inconsistent Hornets but it's nothing spectacular and they didn't slow down Warriors or Celtics at all. From what I've seen/heard (I haven't watched the game), they have some really good possessions at the end of the Warriors game and it's important, but people forget that Warriors scored on them easily for most of the game (the pace was just very slow for new standards).

Fairly imoressive streak given how bad they has been this year, but to call them the most impressive defensive team in the league? No, I don't buy that even for this streak alone.

I get it, small sample. But it’s also a representative sample. If I want to know what the Rockets will do in the playoffs I don’t care what it looked like when they were starting Austin Rivers and Nene in January.

Capela came back 11 games ago. This is basically the first time all season Capela and Paul have been healthy at the same time. Team is 9-2 with a +6.2 net rating and a 107 defensive rating in that time.

That is not to say that I think this is exactly who they are as a team but I think it’s a pretty good indication that with everyone healthy they are within the ballpark of what we saw last year.

I don’t think they are actually a -7 defense of course, I think close to last year’s level of -3 is reasonable which is exactly what they’ve been since Capela’s return. And I would put last year’s team as one of the best I’ve seen.

The process is what I care about here. I want to see them execute the way they did last year because that isn’t affected by probablility the way shooting percentages are. And I’m satisfied with what I see. They look exactly the same with maybe a little Ariza-related slippage. I’ve watched many, many Rockets games over the last two years and I’m telling everyone who’ll listen the defense is back.

[Pillendreher]

This is basically the first time all season Capela and Paul have been healthy at the same time. Team is 9-2 with a +6.2 net rating and a 107 defensive rating in that time.

And yet again you've simply ignoring that

a) that isn't the case

and

b) the season isn't just a three week stretch at the end of it.

This isn't the Denver Nuggets where they've played their nominal starting five 10x or so because of injuries. Paul-Harden-Capela have been on the floor for 621 minutes in 33 games. In those 600+ minutes, they Rockets have allowed 109.6 pp100p per stats.nba.com. Among the 197 three-man-lineups with at least 600 minutes played, that's 177 out of 197 in DRtG. With those three guys on the floor, they have been 0.2 pp100p worse than league average on defense.

They look exactly the same with maybe a little Ariza-related slippage. I’ve watched many, many Rockets games over the last two years and I’m telling everyone who’ll listen the defense is back.

Even in the sample size you're basing this whole thing on, Paul-Harden-Capela has been not been good defensively: 108.5 DRtG over the last 11 games with those 3 guys on the court.

[Lost92Bricks]

108.5 DRtg in the league right now is good.

[Dr Spaceman]

This is basically the first time all season Capela and Paul have been healthy at the same time. Team is 9-2 with a +6.2 net rating and a 107 defensive rating in that time.

And yet again you've simply ignoring that

a) that isn't the case

and

b) the season isn't just a three week stretch at the end of it.

This isn't the Denver Nuggets where they've played their nominal starting five 10x or so because of injuries. Paul-Harden-Capela have been on the floor for 621 minutes in 33 games. In those 600+ minutes, they Rockets have allowed 109.6 pp100p per stats.nba.com. Among the 197 three-man-lineups with at least 600 minutes played, that's 177 out of 197 in DRtG. With those three guys on the floor, they have been 0.2 pp100p worse than league average on defense.

They look exactly the same with maybe a little Ariza-related slippage. I’ve watched many, many Rockets games over the last two years and I’m telling everyone who’ll listen the defense is back.

Even in the sample size you're basing this whole thing on, Paul-Harden-Capela has been not been good defensively: 108.5 DRtG over the last 11 games with those 3 guys on the court.

108.5 DRTG is good. That’s a -1.5 defense. It won’t rank among the best 3 man units but it’s not “not good”.

Regardless, they have plenty of 3 man units that perform quite well defensively. Paul/Tucker/Capela has been 106 all year and trending upward: 105 in the last 11 game stretch. Paul/Gordon/Capela has been even better: 105 all season and 103 in the recent stretch.

The Harden lineups have been difficult for them. Last year they could build lineups where he was always surrounded by 4 very good defenders because their top 7 (Paul/Ariza/Tuck/Capela/Gordon/Luc) were all very good to elite defenders. This year the depth isn’t there; we’ll see what happens with House. They were definitely overzealous in thinking they could replace Trevor for cheap.

They can put lineups out there that are as good as last year. They don’t have as many after the departure of Ariza and seem to have a harder time covering for James’ deficiencies but they are adding wings to the rotation who should help.

[Pillendreher]

108.5 DRTG is good. That’s a -1.5 defense. It won’t rank among the best 3 man units but it’s not “not good”.

Guy. You literally wrote

No one can score on them at all.

This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..

You're just walking back your own hysteria.

[Dr Spaceman]

108.5 DRTG is good. That’s a -1.5 defense. It won’t rank among the best 3 man units but it’s not “not good”.

Guy. You literally wrote

No one can score on them at all.

This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..

You're just walking back your own hysteria.

No I’m not? One three man unit doesn’t change anything?

During the relevant stretch here is every 3 man unit with over 100 minutes:

+2 defense
-5
-6.3
-9.8
-2.5
-4.4
-1.5
-9.2
-1.3
-10.3
-3.8

And once you get below 100 minutes almost every lineup you find has a DRTG in the 90s.

The 5 man starting unit of Paul/Tucker/Harden/Gordon/Capela has a drtg of 102.9 (-7.1) over 132 minutes.

I don’t really care what one particular 3 man unit does, over the last 11 games no one can score on the Rockets. This is an accurate statement.

[Pillendreher]

I don’t really care what one particular 3 man unit does, over the last 11 games no one can score on the Rockets. This is an accurate statement.

You must be absolutely joking right now. Are you out of your mind? After all of this, you double down?



You are acting like they're locking people up with 95 DRtG or whatever. Just stop.

[Dr Spaceman]

I don’t really care what one particular 3 man unit does, over the last 11 games no one can score on the Rockets. This is an accurate statement.

You must be absolutely joking right now. Are you out of your mind? After all of this, you double down?

Spoiler:

You are acting like they're locking people up with 95 DRtG or whatever. Just stop.

After all what? You haven’t made a good argument here. In your image you show that they have been better defensively (-3) than they were last year (-2.5) and I consider last year’s Rockets team one of the better ones of the modern era. I grade defenses on more than just points per 100.

I say “the Rockets have defended extremely well lately”. You say “But this random 3 man lineup is only a bit below league average”. Please tell my why I’m stupid and that this should be the Golden argument to convince me.

[Pillendreher]

After all what? You haven’t made a good argument here.

Several posters have laid out why your initial claims were ridiculous.

In your image you show that they have been better defensively (-3) than they were last year (-2.5) and I consider last year’s Rockets team one of the better ones of the modern era.

IT'S AN 11 GAME SAMPLE WHERE THEY WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE LEAGUE AVERAGE DEFENSIVELY.

I grade defenses on more than just points per 100.

This is a fancy way of saying "When I don't like the numbers, the eye test is the way to go".

I say “the Rockets have defended extremely well lately”.

No, you said that - and I quote - "nobody can score on them", which is such a ridiculous and insane statement that I can't even begin to put it into words. And hell, even what you're claiming here simply isn't true. Before the Thunder started making 3s and somehow stopped defending, they allowed 100 to 101 points per 100 possessions. That's defending extremely well, not what the Rockets have been doing.

You say “But this random 3 man lineup is only a bit below league average”. Please tell my why I’m stupid and that this should be the Golden argument to convince me.

You're just desperately trying now to juggle every flip-flop you have done on this. I specifically posted the numbers for their 3-man-core because you claimed that they "were back" and basically just needed to get those 3 guys healthy at the same time.

[Dr Spaceman]

After all what? You haven’t made a good argument here.

Several posters have laid out why your initial claims were ridiculous.

In your image you show that they have been better defensively (-3) than they were last year (-2.5) and I consider last year’s Rockets team one of the better ones of the modern era.

IT'S AN 11 GAME SAMPLE WHERE THEY WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE LEAGUE AVERAGE DEFENSIVELY.

I grade defenses on more than just points per 100.

This is a fancy way of saying "When I don't like the numbers, the eye test is the way to go".

I say “the Rockets have defended extremely well lately”.

No, you said that - and I quote - "nobody can score on them", which is such a ridiculous and insane statement that I can't even begin to put it into words. And hell, even what you're claiming here simply isn't true. Before the Thunder started making 3s and somehow stopped defending, they allowed 100 to 101 points per 100 possessions. That's defending extremely well, not what the Rockets have been doing.

You say “But this random 3 man lineup is only a bit below league average”. Please tell my why I’m stupid and that this should be the Golden argument to convince me.

You're just desperately trying now to juggle every flip-flop you have done on this. I specifically posted the numbers for their 3-man-core because you claimed that they "were back" and basically just needed to get those 3 guys healthy at the same time.

-you and sp6r are making very different arguments. He took issue with me calling them a GOAT level defense and used the Spurs and Celtics as counterexamples. He seems to think very highly of the Rockets defense as well, just that they’re not at the level of the best ever. I’m cool with that.

You on the other hand seem to be arguing they’re not even good, which is why I’m arguing with you and not him.

-I adressed sample size concerns in my reply to 70sFan and -3 is not slightly above average; that’s excellent. To recap 1. Prior performance indicates the Rockets current stretch is a real thing and 2. Their strength of schedule in this stretch is crazy high

-This whole argument started with my eye test. I am not “falling back” on it. I’ve provided plenty of numbers. I posted the Rockets 11 most used lineups and now ten of them were below average to amazing defensively and how their starting lineup was -7 defensively, again amazing. There’s plenty of statistical evidence they’re defending well.

I often reach a point in my analysis where I put more confidence in my own observations than numbers. This tends to rub people the wrong way. I don’t really care. I watch a ton of games and have made calls here that were prophetic. I’ve also been wrong a lot. I admit when I’m wrong. I don’t think I’m wrong here.

-This is why we are not making any progress. The Rockets have a history of defensding at an elite level with results to back it up. They get healthy this season and show indications that they have approached the same level they played at before. For some reason everyone is just dying to discount this. I don’t get it.

The Thunder don’t have a track record of being a -10 defense. If they did I’d take that streak you mentioned very seriously.

- I haven’t flip flopped once. I have stayed on message this whole time. I am willing to flip flop if you show me something that indicates I’m wrong. You haven’t. If you show me where you think I flip flopped I’m happy to address it.

[bondom34]

108.5 DRTG is good. That’s a -1.5 defense. It won’t rank among the best 3 man units but it’s not “not good”.

Guy. You literally wrote

No one can score on them at all.

This Houston squad of the last two years has the highest defensive ceiling I’ve seen post-handcheck..

You're just walking back your own hysteria.

No I’m not? One three man unit doesn’t change anything?

During the relevant stretch here is every 3 man unit with over 100 minutes:

+2 defense
-5
-6.3
-9.8
-2.5
-4.4
-1.5
-9.2
-1.3
-10.3
-3.8

And once you get below 100 minutes almost every lineup you find has a DRTG in the 90s.

The 5 man starting unit of Paul/Tucker/Harden/Gordon/Capela has a drtg of 102.9 (-7.1) over 132 minutes.

I don’t really care what one particular 3 man unit does, over the last 11 games no one can score on the Rockets. This is an accurate statement.

OK, I was bored so had to look at this. This is these 3 man groups over 11 games. The 11 games you're claiming makes this a GOAT defensive ceiling.


These are OKC's top 11 3 man lineups, in a larger sample, for the season.



Every single one of them is better, in a larger sample, straight down the line. Houston's defense isn't unstoppable. It's been fairly average. And I'm saying this as someone who thinks they're the 2nd best team in the west but they're not even the highest defensive ceiling in the league today let alone ever. They're barely top 10 in a small sample you're hand choosing.

Edit: Also, here's Toronto and Boston. Also on the full season.

[Pillendreher]

-I adressed sample size concerns in my reply to 70sFan

Whid did not impress me, at all. The only thing that makes this tiny sample relevant according to you is that they have been defending better.

and -3 is not slightly above average; that’s excellent.

In a 11 game sample it most certainly is not. Teams that are really good defensively have stretches that go way beyond that. The Thunder had a 29 game stretch in which they held opponents to 101.2 pp100p. The Bucks had a 27 game stretch in which they held opponents to 102.2 pp100p. Over the last 11 games, Houston is at 109.1 pp100p, which is one point per 100 possessions better than league average, which, by definition, is slightly above average (everything per bbref)

That's why you can't look at three weeks stretches like this and declare them highly relevant. They're not. They can be an indicator for the future, but the severity with which you're trying to drive this point home is simply off base.

To recap 1. Prior performance indicates the Rockets current stretch is a real thing and

In what way? What prior performance? The only prior performance we have on them is being bad defensively this season.

2. Their strength of schedule in this stretch is crazy high

70sFan said everything that needed to be said on this matter.

They get healthy this season and show indications that they have approached the same level they played at before. For some reason everyone is just dying to discount this. I don’t get it.

Because it's simply not true. That's what you don't get. You can't come out swinging like this when they haven't even been close to whatever it is you think they've been doing. "Nobody can score on them" would be an accurate description if they locked people up, holding them to 85 points a night or whatever. They're not even close to that.

The Thunder don’t have a track record of being a -10 defense. If they did I’d take that streak you mentioned very seriously.

First of all: Who has a track record of being a "- 10 defense"? Secondly, over the last two seasons the Thunder have been much better defensively with their PG-wing-Center trio on the floor than the Rockets even though they have tanked defensively in the 2nd half of the season two years in a row:

Westbrook-George-Adams: 107.7 per pbpstats.com
Paul-Harden-Capela: 112.1 per pbpstats.com

Historical data for the Thunder points towards them being a much better defense with their man guys on the floor than the Rockets over the past two seasons. But hell, I'm interested in a "pissing contest". I was simply using the Thunder as an example of a team that had a much more impressive defensive stretch than this.

[70sFan]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

[Colbinii]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

They were fantastic against GS in 4 of the first 5 games until the GOAT went down.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Pillendreher]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

They were fantastic against GS in 4 of the first 5 games until the GOAT went down.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Andre Roberson went down way before that series.

[Colbinii]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

They were fantastic against GS in 4 of the first 5 games until the GOAT went down.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Andre Roberson went down way before that series.

Man I miss him...

Is he due to return this season?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Pillendreher]

They were fantastic against GS in 4 of the first 5 games until the GOAT went down.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Andre Roberson went down way before that series.

Man I miss him...

Is he due to return this season?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I don't think so. He was doing on court stuff twice this season and had a setback every time. Nowadays they don't even give optimistic updates anymore.

[Lost92Bricks]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

They pretty much were a lockdown defensive team.

They completely shut down the Warriors' (best offensive team ever) offense in 3 of 5 games. You guys don't realize how impressive that is. In game 4, they held them to 12 4th quarter points in Golden State.

[Dr Spaceman]

I mean, even last year Rockets weren't all-time defensive team. They didn't shut down anybody and weren't dominant in RS or PS. Something is not there in my mind...

They did. They shut down the Wolves who were the 4th best offensive team and the Jazz who were about average.