James Harden Thread (2018-19)

[Dr Spaceman]

Harden is now averaging 5 three's made per game, on 37.8%, 88% of them being unassisted.

Over the last three years he has more 3 point makes than Curry while being assisted 24% of the time as opposed to 65% for Curry. There’s an argument he is the better off the dribble shooter between the two currently, although Curry’s 16 season is still better than Harden stat wise

[SideshowBob]

Got some numbers magic for us about this streak?

I was gonna let it end first but it looks like this is just life now .

I'll do an update to this sometime, with all the numbers for Harden's stretch.

[K_chile22]

Since CP went out he's had by far the worst supporting cast of any superstar. These guys are embarrassing themselves every night. Ennis might not be in the league next season and he was supposed to start for this team. Gordon is washed up being recognition, PJs shot left him the last month or so. Capela's been great on offense but his defense took a step back. Green just stinks. Austin River and Danuel House were God sends for this team and I think that says more about the team than it does them

Tonight everyone besides Gordon and he are 1 of 16 for 5 points. How are professional basketball players so bad

[K_chile22]

You can't make this up.
Half the team is braindead.

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[CBA]

Since CP went out he's had by far the worst supporting cast of any superstar. These guys are embarrassing themselves every night. Ennis might not be in the league next season and he was supposed to start for this team. Gordon is washed up being recognition, PJs shot left him the last month or so. Capela's been great on offense but his defense took a step back. Green just stinks. Austin River and Danuel House were God sends for this team and I think that says more about the team than it does them

Tonight everyone besides Gordon and he are 1 of 16 for 5 points. How are professional basketball players so bad

Yeah, upgrading from Nene, Ennis, and Rivers to Capela, CP3 and House might make them a lot better than I thought. I’d like to seen them in the playoffs healthy as a 7th seed or above.

[Cavsfansince84]

Since CP went out he's had by far the worst supporting cast of any superstar. These guys are embarrassing themselves every night. Ennis might not be in the league next season and he was supposed to start for this team. Gordon is washed up being recognition, PJs shot left him the last month or so. Capela's been great on offense but his defense took a step back. Green just stinks. Austin River and Danuel House were God sends for this team and I think that says more about the team than it does them

Tonight everyone besides Gordon and he are 1 of 16 for 5 points. How are professional basketball players so bad

Its not going to do them any favors playing next to a guy who used almost 50 possessions(38 fga plus another 10-11 where he was fouled). That's easy to understand. Obviously 1-16 is still bad but that's part of it.

[K_chile22]

Since CP went out he's had by far the worst supporting cast of any superstar. These guys are embarrassing themselves every night. Ennis might not be in the league next season and he was supposed to start for this team. Gordon is washed up being recognition, PJs shot left him the last month or so. Capela's been great on offense but his defense took a step back. Green just stinks. Austin River and Danuel House were God sends for this team and I think that says more about the team than it does them

Tonight everyone besides Gordon and he are 1 of 16 for 5 points. How are professional basketball players so bad

Its not going to do them any favors playing next to a guy who used almost 50 possessions(38 fga plus another 10-11 where he was fouled). That's easy to understand. Obviously 1-16 is still bad but that's part of it.

That same guy is setting them up for wide open looks that they're just bricking. It's not like they're any better with him off the floor. Then the whole team just doesn't score. He does this because he has to

[thekdog34]

You can't make this up.
Half the team is braindead.

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Only explanation is the Tucker thought Gordon was leaving the ball for someone else to inbound

[Texas Chuck]

You can't make this up.
Half the team is braindead.

Read on Twitter

?s=19

whole clip is hilarious. Vonleh doesn't seem to know he's allowed to get the ball even trying to avoid it touching him until a teammate screams at him to grab it. Gordon has given up on the play before Vonleh even has the ball. Everyone trying to out stupid each other.

[ThatBoyNick]

36.3 ppg - 1st in NBA

8.3 assist - 4th in NBA

2.1 steals - tied for 3rd in NBA

On elite efficiency.

[Ascrilas]

His supporting cast is really next-level bad. Gordon and Tucker are the only one who play like starters, the rest are fringe NBA-players really. When Danuel House Jr. of all people is sorely missed, you know it's bad.

[LA Bird]

Harden over last 21 games: 43.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 2.2 steals on 63.1% TS and somewhere around +17 on/off

Edit: Harden has also attempted more threes over the last 11 games than any other player in history over the 11 highest 3FGA games of their entire career.

Harden's total 3pt attempts over the last 11 consecutive games: 190
Curry's total 3pt attempts in the 11 highest games of his career: 189

[Dr Spaceman]

Harden has now scored 263 consecutive unassisted points.

[Dupp]

Harden has now scored 263 consecutive unassisted points.

Came to see if this has been talked about. Insane.

[ThatBoyNick]

Harden has now scored 263 consecutive unassisted points.

Came to see if this has been talked about. Insane.

05-06 Kobe averaged 37% of his 2's assisted, 70% of his 3's assisted

Harden is at 11% and 11% assisted on the season now

no data for MJ, but likely had more points assisted then Kobe, if not something similar.


Hardens averaging more points per minute/possession then Kobe or Michael ever did, far more efficiently than either of their highest scoring seasons as well.


Harden is bananas.

[frica]

MJ certainly had a much higher rate of assisted shots.
He was an extraordinary off-ball player and didn't need it in his hands. Also played in a triangle and with Pippen.
Totally different style from Harden.

Harden's per 100 48.2 pts per games is bananas but not that far ahead of Jordan's 46.4 pts per 100.
Harden's TS% is like 6.5% above average while Jordan's 46.4 per 100 season was only 2.4% above average.

Jordan at his most efficient was more efficient relative to his era than Harden is.
But Harden is doing it at a higher volume.

Bonkers.

[Bergmaniac]

Absolutely ridiculous numbers. He's approaching Westbrook's record usage rate from 2017 while playing several more minutes per game yet he's still maintaining phenomenal scoring efficiency. And now he's going whole games without an assisted bucket and still scoring 40+ at elite efficiency. Nobody has ever been that dominant as an ISO player.

[Bad Gatorade]

So, I did some quick data sleuthing with relation to Harden's turnovers.

One of the primary causes of turnovers isn't necessarily passing, but rather, passing to the rim. The best assists are assists at the rim, because a dunk/layup is the highest expected payoff out of any shot, right? This occurs because they're far more likely to go in than jump shots (an open layup/dunk is practically a sure thing, and this doesn't occur for jump shots).

However, the expected turnovers for an "interior" passer are generally higher. Interior assists are more likely to be contested (whether it's by intentionally defence, or simply by other players being in the way), meaning that:
a) the ball is less likely to hit the intended target
b) there are more likely to be interior assists that don't happen because of fouls, even if they result in team points

So, I created a list of "interior assist" percentages (i.e. assists at the rim/total assists):

Spoiler:

Player Percentage
Harden 0.562
Lillard 0.557
Holiday 0.534
Barea 0.531
Young 0.528
James 0.514
Rubio 0.512
Westbrook 0.501
Paul 0.486
Jokic 0.476
Doncic 0.467
Rose 0.463
Rondo 0.457
Fox 0.453
Conley 0.440
Wall 0.437
Davis 0.436
Lowry 0.425
Dinwiddie 0.411
Curry 0.408
Simmons 0.405
Green 0.401
Durant 0.399
Walker 0.362
Irving 0.358
Horford 0.336
Griffin 0.325
Butler 0.317
Antetokounmpo 0.302
DeRozan 0.252

Many of the players that rank notably lower (e.g. DeRozan, Irving, Walker, Butler) are players that have traditionally had strong assist/turnover ratios, but are seldom known as being great playmakers, and the interior ratio is a reason why - they're generally making safe passes which won't turn the ball over, but aren't quite as likely to concoct elite scoring opportunities.

Now, this isn't a proxy for being a good/bad passer - to an extent, the assist opportunities that arise stem from your teammates, which is why some players can vary greatly from year to year in this ratio. For example, LeBron in Cleveland (surrounded by 3 point shooters) had a fairly low ratio, but he has a very high ratio in LA, notable for their lack of spacing. But it does also explain a bit of the assist/turnover ratio, and how it sometimes differentiates from our perceptions of passing ability, and how the same player can vary from year to year. For example, Garnett's interior assist/turnover ratio was very similar throughout most of the 00s, but his raw assist numbers dropped off quite a bit, because he was no longer providing as many "risk-free, but low-leverage" passes to the jump shooters on his teams. Jason Kidd's A/T ratio increased in his later years of the Nets, because he was servicing jump shooters more, rather than the Kenyon Martins of the world.

Anyway...

Out of anybody I've acquired the numbers for, Harden ranks 1st in the league. This doesn't mean that he's not turnover prone, but it shows that his passes that aren't turnovers are creating high-leverage opportunities that raw assist and turnover counts aren't really capturing. The "at the rim" frequency without Harden on the court is 27.82% for Houston, and it jumps up to 33.48% with Harden on the court, even though Harden only shoots 28.23% of his shots at the rim (and he is something like 40% of Houston's usage...)

However, with Harden on the court, the percentage of 3 point attempts by his team also stays at roughly 51-52%, so he's replacing midrange shots with "at the rim" shots. And I don't think I need to get into Harden's foul drawing.

In other words, Harden is not only a master of the 'Morey index' (i.e. at the rim/3 point shots), but he's also terrific at generating these shots for his teammates too. The principle behind spacing is that occupying certain zones of the court helps open up other areas of the court - become a 3 point threat, and it's easier to generate shots underneath the hoop. Harden is a player who can not only occupy both the rim AND the 3 point line, but he actually creates MORE of these high-leverage shots for his teammates with him on the court!

And that's why I find his turnovers forgivable - sure, he turns the ball over a lot, but that's a byproduct of being arguably the best generator of the Morey index principle in the league. And that's precisely why, despite his turnovers, he seems to constantly lead strong offences.

[Dr Spaceman]

So, I did some quick data sleuthing with relation to Harden's turnovers.

One of the primary causes of turnovers isn't necessarily passing, but rather, passing to the rim. The best assists are assists at the rim, because a dunk/layup is the highest expected payoff out of any shot, right? This occurs because they're far more likely to go in than jump shots (an open layup/dunk is practically a sure thing, and this doesn't occur for jump shots).

However, the expected turnovers for an "interior" passer are generally higher. Interior assists are more likely to be contested (whether it's by intentionally defence, or simply by other players being in the way), meaning that:
a) the ball is less likely to hit the intended target
b) there are more likely to be interior assists that don't happen because of fouls, even if they result in team points

So, I created a list of "interior assist" percentages (i.e. assists at the rim/total assists):

Spoiler:

Player Percentage
Harden 0.562
Lillard 0.557
Holiday 0.534
Barea 0.531
Young 0.528
James 0.514
Rubio 0.512
Westbrook 0.501
Paul 0.486
Jokic 0.476
Doncic 0.467
Rose 0.463
Rondo 0.457
Fox 0.453
Conley 0.440
Wall 0.437
Davis 0.436
Lowry 0.425
Dinwiddie 0.411
Curry 0.408
Simmons 0.405
Green 0.401
Durant 0.399
Walker 0.362
Irving 0.358
Horford 0.336
Griffin 0.325
Butler 0.317
Antetokounmpo 0.302
DeRozan 0.252

Many of the players that rank notably lower (e.g. DeRozan, Irving, Walker, Butler) are players that have traditionally had strong assist/turnover ratios, but are seldom known as being great playmakers, and the interior ratio is a reason why - they're generally making safe passes which won't turn the ball over, but aren't quite as likely to concoct elite scoring opportunities.

Now, this isn't a proxy for being a good/bad passer - to an extent, the assist opportunities that arise stem from your teammates, which is why some players can vary greatly from year to year in this ratio. For example, LeBron in Cleveland (surrounded by 3 point shooters) had a fairly low ratio, but he has a very high ratio in LA, notable for their lack of spacing. But it does also explain a bit of the assist/turnover ratio, and how it sometimes differentiates from our perceptions of passing ability, and how the same player can vary from year to year. For example, Garnett's interior assist/turnover ratio was very similar throughout most of the 00s, but his raw assist numbers dropped off quite a bit, because he was no longer providing as many "risk-free, but low-leverage" passes to the jump shooters on his teams. Jason Kidd's A/T ratio increased in his later years of the Nets, because he was servicing jump shooters more, rather than the Kenyon Martins of the world.

Anyway...

Out of anybody I've acquired the numbers for, Harden ranks 1st in the league. This doesn't mean that he's not turnover prone, but it shows that his passes that aren't turnovers are creating high-leverage opportunities that raw assist and turnover counts aren't really capturing. The "at the rim" frequency without Harden on the court is 27.82% for Houston, and it jumps up to 33.48% with Harden on the court, even though Harden only shoots 28.23% of his shots at the rim (and he is something like 40% of Houston's usage...)

However, with Harden on the court, the percentage of 3 point attempts by his team also stays at roughly 51-52%, so he's replacing midrange shots with "at the rim" shots. And I don't think I need to get into Harden's foul drawing.

In other words, Harden is not only a master of the 'Morey index' (i.e. at the rim/3 point shots), but he's also terrific at generating these shots for his teammates too. The principle behind spacing is that occupying certain zones of the court helps open up other areas of the court - become a 3 point threat, and it's easier to generate shots underneath the hoop. Harden is a player who can not only occupy both the rim AND the 3 point line, but he actually creates MORE of these high-leverage shots for his teammates with him on the court!

And that's why I find his turnovers forgivable - sure, he turns the ball over a lot, but that's a byproduct of being arguably the best generator of the Morey index principle in the league. And that's precisely why, despite his turnovers, he seems to constantly lead strong offences.

This is awesome, thank you. I’ve never seen anything like this compiled anywhere. Your statistical work is unparalleled.

I think people have a tendency to judge passers by how often they make spectacular passes. Harden’s not really that type of guy, but I don’t see why it should be a given that makes him less valuable. If you run 100 pick and rolls he is going to hit the roll man in stride 100 times. His timing is a work of art on its own, and he reads the angles better than anyone I’ve seen run the play. He’s very obviously the he’s lob thrower in the league and he has led the league in corner 3 assists for like 25 consecutive years.

Wha more is it really fair to expect than a guy who can consistently create opportunities in the most important spots on the floor? Is there any actual value added by Jokic’s one handed volleyball passes tha Harden isn’t doing by running a pick and roll?

[Texas Chuck]

Harden's total 3pt attempts over the last 11 consecutive games: 190
Curry's total 3pt attempts in the 11 highest games of his career: 189

I mean how many silly James Harden numbers can we get during this run? I wonder if in that Kobe/Harden thread if we are going to see any of the really aggressive Kobe fans yelling at anyone taking Harden give a mea culpa. I can't see any arguments for 06 Kobe over what Harden is doing right now.