#8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project

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#8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#1 » by Gibson22 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:39 pm

We vote for the #8 best defensive shooting guard of all time.


1. Jason Kidd
2.Walt Frazier
3. Gary Payton
4. Dennis Johnson
5. Jerry West
6. John Stockton
7. Chris Paul
8. Mookie Blaylock
9. Nate McMillan
10. Mo Cheeks

Shooting Guards:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Tony Allen
4. Michael Cooper
5. Alvin Robertson
6. Eddie Jones
7. Jerry Sloan

And this is where it started
Idea

And this is where we listed the candidates. I opened a poll where butler, thabo, andre roberson and dan majerle came out as SGs. Iguodala, Bowen, Stepehn Jackson are SFs

Candidates list



these are the candidates



Bill Sharman (Washington Capitols, 1951/1961, All-Def teams didn’t exist)

Tom Gola (Philadelphia Warriors, San Francisco Warriors, Knicks, 1956/1966 All-Def teams didn’t exist)

Don Chaney (Celtics, Lakers, St.Louis Spirits, 1969/1980, X5 All-Defensive)

Lionel Hollins (Blazers, 76ers, San Diego Clippers, Pistons, Rockets, 1976/1985, X2 All-Defensive)

Eddie Johnson (Hawks, Cavs, Supersonics, 1978/1987, X2 All-Defensive)

T.R. Dunn (Portland, Denver, Phoenix, 1978/1991, X3 All-Defensive)

Fat Lever (Blazers, Nuggets, Mavs, 1983/1994, X1 All-Defensive)

Joe Dumars (Pistons, 1986/1999, X5 All-Defensive)

Dan Majerle (Suns, Cavs, Heat, 1989/2002, X2 All-Defensive)

John Starks (Warriors, Knicks, Bulls, Jazz, 1989/2002, X1 All-Defensive)

Vernon Maxwell (Spurs, Rockets, 76ers, Magic, Hornets, Kings, SuperSonics, Mavs, 1989/2001)

Mitch Richmond (Warriors, Kings, Wizards, Lakers, 1989/2002)

Jaren Jackson Sr (Nets, Warriors, Clippers, Blazers, 76ers, Rockets, Bullets, Spurs, Magic, 1990/2002)

Nick Anderson (Magic, Kings, Grizzlies, 1990/2002)

Bobby Phills (Cavs, Hornets, 1992/2000, X1 All-Defensive)

Stacey Augmon (Hawks, Pistons, Blazers, Hornets, Magic, 1992/2006)

Latrell Sprewell (Warriors, Knicks, Timberwolves, 1993/2005, X1 All-Defensive)

Doug Christie (Lakers, Knicks, Raptors, Kings, Magic, Mavs, Clippers, 1993/2007, X4 All-Defensive)

Aaron Mckie (Blazers, Pistons, 76ers, Lakers, 1995/2007)

Kobe Bryant (Lakers, 1997/2016, X12 All-Defensive)

Raja Bell (76ers, Mavs, Jazz, Suns, Hornets, Warrios, 2001-2012, X2 All-Defensive)

Manu Ginobili (Spurs, 2003/2018)

Wade (Heat, Bulls, Cavs, 2004/2018, X3 All-Defensive)

Thabo Sefolosha (Bulls, OKC, Atlanta, Utah, 2007/2018, X1 All-Defensive)

Danny Green (Cavs, Spurs, 2010/2018, X1 All-Defensive)

Avery Bradley (Celtics, Pistons, Clippers, 2011/2018, X2 All-Defensive)

Jimmy Butler (Bulls, Timberwolves, 2012/2018, X4 All-Defensive)

Klay Thompson (Warriors, 2012/2018, X1 All-Defensive)

Victor Oladipo (Orlando, Okc, Indiana, 2014/2018, X1 All-Defensive)

Marcus smart (Boston Celtics, 2015/2018)

Andre Roberson (OKC, 2015/2018, X1 All-Defensive)



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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#2 » by Gibson22 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:40 pm

Rules of the project:
1) As you can see, this is a project about the ten best defenders in each position. In this ranking, like in any ranking of this genre, we consider the entire career or the players. Now, if you tend to give more importance to peak, prime, longevity, level of defense in higher level teams, or any other type of criteria, you can obviously do it.
The point of the thread is not "Who are the ten best players at defending ROLE X (in this case, at defending PGs)", the point is "Who are the ten players considered as ROLE X who are the best at defense"? Now, if you view the fact that a certain player considered in a certain role in certain seasons defended more ROLE Y players as a minus in this ranking, I don't know how that makes sense, but nobody can decide for you.

2) For the players whose role is not certain, we settle it before moving on with the next position. We did it before the PGs rankings, we will do for every other position.

3) You have 48 hours since the start of the thread to express your vote (preferably bolded), at the end of the 48 hours, the player who has more votes wins. Anybody can vote. If at the end of the 48 hours two or more players have the same amount of votes, we proceed with a run-off. The run-off will last for 15 hours. Anybody BUT the members who already voted for one of the partecipants in the run-off can express his vote in the run-off. If, at the end of the 15 hours, there still are tied candidates, the first player to have other 3 votes will win the run-off. Late votes were never counted and will never be.

If you need any other claryification, just tell me.

Thank you guys for your partecipation
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:01 pm

OK, I'll have to find some time to tonight to sit down and go over a few things. Truly don't know who I'm going to vote for; all I know is that I'm primarily considering Jimmy Butler, Doug Christie, Stacey Augmon, Don Chaney, and Joe Dumars (with maybe outside chances for DWade, Kobe, or Thabo Sefolosha).
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#4 » by Bidofo » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:45 pm

I appreciate the mention OP, but I'm simply not knowledgable enough about the past to participate. Please remove my name. Will be following closely though! :D
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#5 » by ElectricMayhem » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:00 am

Joe Dumars.

When Michael Jordan said Joe Dumars played the best defense he ever went up against, it wasn't empty rhetoric.
Image

Denying guys the ball, staying in front of them - that's not lingerie-wearing ooh la la sexy defense, but it gets the job done.

Image
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#6 » by mdonnelly1989 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:07 am

Joe Dumars....Again
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#7 » by Samurai » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:11 am

My vote is for Joe Dumars. 4-times an All Defensive first team member and once named to the second team. Most remember him as the first line of the Pistons defense in employing the "Jordan Rules" who had the responsibility of preventing MJ from going to his right, but my memory is that the Pistons used this scheme against other teams as well. I think there were others who were better in terms of help defense, but I think he is the best man defender on a consistent basis on this list. He had great footwork that allowed him to stay in front of his man.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#8 » by Luigi » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:40 am

I vote Dumars, then Christie. But I feel like I'm biased toward dudes I have seen more of.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#9 » by pandrade83 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:58 am

I need to do some homework. Augmon, Starks, Dumars Butler, Kobe & Wade are my consideration set for these last 3.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:43 am

I vote Chaney. Long, strong, fundamentally sound, defensively aggressive. Not particularly talented offensively nor a great ballhawk but a terrific defender. Butler has a shot here, Wade for his incredible athleticism, Dumars was as good or better than Chaney in terms of staying in front of people but didn't have the length or the strength; he could be posted up and is probably the worst all time great at almost any defensive counting stat you care to name . . . weak rebounder, few steals, almost never got a blocked shot.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:05 pm

Bounce_9 wrote:
OVERALL CAREER DEFENSIVE VALUE:
#1 Jordan 2009.6
#2 Robertson 1546.6
#3 Jones 1520.1
#4 Wade 1297.1
#5 Christie 1180.8
#6 Allen 1000.3
#7 Bryant 993.6
#8 Moncrief 897.7
#9 Cooper 874.2
#10 Green 870.3
#11 Augmon 799.2
#12 Butler 752.8
#13 Roberson 498.8
#14 Dumars 415.8

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Jordan 990.3
#2 Robertson 972.2
#3 Christie 817.2
#4 Jones 749.6
#5 Wade 704.1
#6 Butler 665.4
#7 Green 640.1
#8 Moncrief 628.2
#9 Bryant 558.8
#10 Cooper 523.5
#11 Roberson 498.8
#12 Allen 467.0
#13 Augmon 459.2
#14 Dumars 352.4

PEAK:
#1 Robertson 254.5 (1986)
#2 Jordan 240.7 (1988)
#3 Christie 216.4 (2003)
#4 Roberson 191.2 (2017)
#5 Jones 177.4 (2002)
#6 Green 173.4 (2016)
#7 Butler 173.0 (2014)
#8 Wade 166.0 (2009)
#9 Moncrief 158.0 (1982)
#10 Cooper 144.4 (1981)
#11 Augmon 142.1 (1994)
#12 Bryant 134.2 (2000)
#13 Allen 118.4 (2009)
#14 Dumars 85.0 (1988)

.


Any chance you could figure up the numbers for Sefolosha and show where he fits into this group? I'm taking a closer look at him, and would like to know where he stands by this metric.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#12 » by penbeast0 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:14 pm

And Chaney if any of that information is available...
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#13 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:41 pm

This is tough. Joe Dumars and Doug Christie pass the eye test almost perfectly, but their advanced stats and head-to-head matchup results are pretty underwhelming. Chaney looks potentially winning but I can't find any film of him; does anyone know where I should look?
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#14 » by Gibson22 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:56 pm

Votes that make sense: chaney based on reputation, doug christie, joe dumars, wade, butler. andre roberson doesn't have nearly enough minutes. Wade and dumars may deserve a spot for their longevity, but as far as how good they actually are on the defensive end I would put em more in the 10/15 category than in the 8/10, and I woud put dumars over wade, I would put butler over doug.
Well, I'd probably vote.. not jimmy B just because of his low minutes count, with another, I don't know, 2 seasons as an all-defensive I'd take him closer to 5 than 10, between joe and wade i'd take joe.. I'd say it's between joe dumars and don chaney for this round.. I would take Don Chaney over him, just because I wasn't that impressed with dumars's defense, if everybody had the same minutes count as dumars, there's a lot of guys (well, not a lot, but some guys) I would take over him
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#15 » by Owly » Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:36 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:This is tough. Joe Dumars and Doug Christie pass the eye test almost perfectly, but their advanced stats and head-to-head matchup results are pretty underwhelming. Chaney looks potentially winning but I can't find any film of him; does anyone know where I should look?

Games 6 (or 30 minutes thereof) and 7 of the 74 finals are (or at least have been) out there so searching for those might be your best chance (he went to the ABA so missed the 76 finals ...).

There's a couple of 77 Lakers game too which likely feature him (1st May WCSF game 6 vs Warriors; games 2 and 4 of the Conference finals versus Portland). Then in 78 he's been traded by the couple of Lakers games available, but perhaps in for Celtics games versus the 76ers (12th March 1978, but out for the 8th of January game) and the season closer [and Havlicek's final game] versus the Braves (9th April 1978).

Actually there's been a (or at least one) decent quality (NBA TV) ABA game too, (Spirits vs Colonels, February 24th 1976).

Oh and it seems games 2, 4 and 7 of the 1973 Conference Finals between the Celtics and Knicks too.

Haven't generally checked he was healthy/playing big minutes but those are games that I think have been available (mostly on youtube).


I would note regarding the "advanced stats" (whilst I appreciate the work that has gone in to creating the numbers) that it is limited by the inputs, you have to gauge how much you trust those inputs to give a good read on how good a defender is in general and in the specific instances (you might decide that in general it's an okay ballpark figure but believe that it will miss wildly on some non-boxscore defenders like Joe Dumars or Anthony Mason - of course it could also make you look closer at them and evaluate the worthiness of their reputations).

Meanwhile, counterpoint performance will be influenced by how much each guy played against each other (cross-matching, substitution patterns, uneven minutes) and general noisiness of small samples. Short of someone good at tracking games and with a ton of time on their hands really looking through games, evaluating older guys (think more pre-mid-seventies here, but to a lesser degree anyone pre-databall) is probably going to be a bit more anecdotal/qualitative influenced (and/or box-score for late 70s, 80s, 90s guys).
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:27 pm

So I've wanted to look at some means of cumulative defensive value above replacement level for various players, sort of like what Bounce_9 had posted about here:

Spoiler:
Bounce_9 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Bounce_9 wrote:I've done a quick calculation for this run-off. I've used the defensive component of the three most important statistical plus/minus I know (PIPM, BPM, Estimated Impact). This approach allows to compare them in a fair way, which is impossible using purest plus/minus derivates like RAPM, because they are not computable for Robertson.
I blended these three stats with a weighted average. I found the coefficients in a retrodiction test some time ago and they are about equal to each other for the defensive side (not for offense though) so it's basically a arithmetic average. Then I multiplied the result by the total possessions to make the final result cumulative of all the regular seasons values.
Eddie Jones:
1995 - 80.7, 1996 - 103.1, 1997 - 150.5, 1998 - 115.7, 1999 - 104.8, 2000 - 155, 2001 - 114.9, 2002 - 177.4, 2003 - 79.4, 2004 - 78.4, 2005 - 141.6, 2006 - 125.0, 2007 - 53.4, 2008 - 40.0 - FINAL SCORE: 1520.1
Alvin Robertson:
1985 - 73.5, 1986 - 254.5, 1987 - 178.2, 1988 - 167.3, 1989 - 148.4, 1990 - 178.9, 1991 - 193.3, 1992 - 132.2, 1993 - 116.4, 1996 - 103.8 - FINAL SCORE - 1546.6

So, despite this being a cumulative calculation, Robertson comes up slightly ahead of Jones. He also has 4 seasons with better value than Jones' best. I obviously know that boxscore derivated numbers aren't enough to make a final judgement, primarily because they rely too much on steals and blocks (in which Alvin easily trumps Eddie). Fwiw, I've read (though I don't remember where) that a steal is worth about 1.4 points. So averaging 4.8 steals x100poss like Robertson did in his DPOY season provides your team about 7 points per game. As for gambling issues, they made me question if he was good enough to be #5, but ultimately it's a problem which can dammed with a good big men, while having a disruptive force on the perimeter is something that every coach would be glad to have. Consider this post my argument for Robertson, since I have already voted for him.



btw Bounce_9, is there any chance you'd be willing to compile and present this same data for several of the other candidates [as well as #1-4 already voted in]? I think it would be relevant to the discussion. I'd like to see these same figures for Jordan, Moncrief, Cooper, Allen, as well as Dumars, Doug Christie, Stacey Augmon, Kobe, Wade, maybe Danny Green and Andre Roberson, too.
EDIT: Jimmy Butler, too, if you're willing.


Ok, so I've compiled the data for all the players you mentioned. In the previous post I forgot to say that this is basically Total Defensive Value Over Replacement player so there is a replacement level which I set at -1.5.
I'm gonna present the data for overall career, best 5 years (prime) and peak. If you, or others, have any question about a particular year(s) of any player, just let me know.

OVERALL CAREER DEFENSIVE VALUE:
#1 Jordan 2009.6
#2 Robertson 1546.6
#3 Jones 1520.1
#4 Wade 1297.1
#5 Christie 1180.8
#6 Allen 1000.3
#7 Bryant 993.6
#8 Moncrief 897.7
#9 Cooper 874.2
#10 Green 870.3
#11 Augmon 799.2
#12 Butler 752.8
#13 Roberson 498.8
#14 Dumars 415.8

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Jordan 990.3
#2 Robertson 972.2
#3 Christie 817.2
#4 Jones 749.6
#5 Wade 704.1
#6 Butler 665.4
#7 Green 640.1
#8 Moncrief 628.2
#9 Bryant 558.8
#10 Cooper 523.5
#11 Roberson 498.8
#12 Allen 467.0
#13 Augmon 459.2
#14 Dumars 352.4

PEAK:
#1 Robertson 254.5 (1986)
#2 Jordan 240.7 (1988)
#3 Christie 216.4 (2003)
#4 Roberson 191.2 (2017)
#5 Jones 177.4 (2002)
#6 Green 173.4 (2016)
#7 Butler 173.0 (2014)
#8 Wade 166.0 (2009)
#9 Moncrief 158.0 (1982)
#10 Cooper 144.4 (1981)
#11 Augmon 142.1 (1994)
#12 Bryant 134.2 (2000)
#13 Allen 118.4 (2009)
#14 Dumars 85.0 (1988)

Now I really don't have the time to comment on the data, I will do it tomorrow, as well as voting.


.....but with [primarily] utilizing impact metrics which do NOT incorporate box inputs. So I used DRAPM (PI, where available) for '97-'18, and utilized the rs APM (or pseudo-APM) that colts18 had provided for '94-'96 and made "educated guesses" at the defensive split for players who were active in that span (yes, that's a little "noisy" for those years, but better than nothing).
And then, just so I could be more complete on guys like Joe Dumars (and to lesser degree Stacey Augmon), and so I could be inclusive of Don Chaney, I utilized shutupandjam's estimated impact defensive splits [one of the metric Bounce_9 used] for years '93 and prior. Yes, I realize that violates the premise of using something which does NOT utilize box inputs for those individuals, as well as makes it NOT quite an apples to apples comparison with those players.

I thought -1.5 is fair overall representation of a replacement-level player in the used impact metrics, and assumed that roughly half of that is coming on the defensive end (i.e. -0.75 DRAPM assumed for replacement level). So for each year of a player's career, I took the difference from replacement-level and multiplied by the minutes played.
Below are the results.....

CAREER Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha - 47,383.8
Danny Green - 36,011.6
Stacey Augmon - 35,545.3
Doug Christie - 31,770.4
Jimmy Butler - 30,445.8
Dwyane Wade - 28,323.8
Joe Dumars - 22,583.0
*Don Chaney (*'76 not included)- 21,792.2
Andre Roberson - 19,433.8
Kobe Bryant - 13,224.5

Best Single Year Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha ('13) - 11,479.35
Doug Christie ('03) - 11,246.5
Danny Green ('16) - 7,918.1
Stacey Augmon ('94) - 7,085.6
Jimmy Butler ('18) - 6,643.5
Dwyane Wade ('06) - 6,507.0
Kobe Bryant ('10) - 5,811.75
Andre Roberson ('17) - 5,702.4
Don Chaney ('73) - 4,354.0
Joe Dumars ('91) - 3,807.5

AVERAGE Defensive Value Above Replacement (per season)
Jimmy Butler - 4,349.4
Danny Green - 4,001.3
Thabo Sefolosha - 3,948.6
Andre Roberson - 3,886.8
Doug Christie - 2,647.5
Stacey Augmon - 2,369.7
Don Chaney - 1,981.1
Dwyane Wade - 1,888.3
Joe Dumars - 1,613.1
Kobe Bryant - 661.2


Based on the above, Thabo Sefolosha and Danny Green are two guys I'm considering much more seriously than I was before looking at it this way.
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"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Thu Nov 1, 2018 4:13 am

Alright, lemme look at some candidates......

Joe Dumars
Pros:
1) He looks pretty good defensively to my eye. If he's charged with guarding the primary ball-handler, I've seen him hound them up the court (not really trying to force a turnover, but rather just delaying them getting into their offense and otherwise breaking up their rhythm marginally). Guarding a guy off-ball, he's excellent at fighting thru screens, sticking to his man like glue, and gives consistent effort on contesting shots (even if his size and athleticism means that he’s never truly a shot-blocking threat); I believe someone previously demonstrated how he made life difficult for off-ball shooters like Reggie Miller and Mitch Richmond. Although he’s not impressive [downright awful, in fact] in defensive counting stats, another poster previously stated that he’s good defensively in all the non-sexy ways.
2) Has the accolades to be competitive here (iirc like 6 times All-D, four of those 1st team). I don't generally put too much stock in accolades for this project [as the media so often gets it wrong]; but I do put more emphasis or "faith" in it for someone of Joe Dumars's era (or earlier) than I do for someone of the more modern era (where we have a plethora of impact data to demonstrate if awards were justifiable or not). Where data is increasingly lacking, I feel we must put increasing faith in accolades and reputation.
3) Depending on just how good you believe his on-court defensive play/impact was, low number of minutes or seasons is not a mitigating factor.

Cons:
1) Has just about the worst defensive counting stats of any player ever.
2) Small and of limited athleticism for a SG, which arguably limited him in certain aspects of defense.
3) The few vaguely impact-related defensive stats (partially box-derived) or only marginally positive.
4) More “pure” impact metrics (which we only have available for his late---post-prime----career) are actually negative in the defensive splits.


Doug Christie
Pros:
1) Had length and athleticism, which he utilized well to get into passing lanes or sticking a long arm in to poke the ball loose, aiding him in having some fairly monstrous steal rates: career avg of 3.1 steals/100 possessions (peaking at 3.5….twice), as well as 0.8 blocks/100. For reference, Michael Jordan’s career avg was 3.1 steals/100.
2) As demonstrated in prior post, impact metrics rate him as an easily-validated candidate for this spot: near the top of the heap in peak-year defensive impact, and in the mix near the top in cumulative career defensive impact.

Cons:
1) His avg seasons defensive impact above replacement level (see prior post) is somewhat middle of the pack among present candidates, and his WOWYR score is pretty pedestrian.
2) Allowed Kobe a magnificent series against him in the ‘01 WCSF.
*I know these are sort of weak-sauce criticisms at this stage (especially the WOWYR, given it's not specific to defense only and we have better impact indicators anyway), but that’s really about all that could be said against him here (other than to note there are 2-3 individuals with greater All-Defensive accolades).


Thabo Sefolosha
Pros:
1) Looking at ‘pure” impact metrics, he appears to be at the top of the heap of available candidates in both peak season value above replacement level (as indicated in prior post), and in total career value over replacement (by a handy margin in the latter).
2) Length and athleticism, as it contributes to defense and versatility, yada yada.

Cons:
1) Lacking in accolades relative to basically all other candidates (except for Stacey Augmon).
2) Pedestrian WOWYR score (questionable relevance given it's not defense-specific, and we have better impact indicators available).


Jimmy Butler
Pros:
1) Looking at impact metrics, his average defensive value [per season] above replacement level is perhaps the best among available candidates.
2) Long and athletic, and his counting stats are competitive.

Cons:
1) Seasons/minutes of quality defensive play are lacking compared to most others.


Danny Green
Pros:
1) One of the best in value above replacement level in impact metrics, as demonstrated previously (especially for peak season).
2) Excellent shot-contesting and shot-blocking SG (and fair-good in other counting defensive stats).
3) Does a lot of the other “non-sexy” defensive things (fighting thru screens, making things difficult for opponents).

Cons:
1) Lacking in accolades relative to everyone except Sefolosha or Augmon.
2) Middling longevity compared to the rest.


Don Chaney
Pros:
1) Competitive in counting stats (in years recorded).
2) Passes eye-test [from limited sample] in aggressiveness, consistent effort, fundamentals. Reasonably long and athletic, too.
3) WOWYR places him very competitively among candidates in defensive impact if we assume majority of his impact is on the defensive end (which is reasonable to assume).

Cons:
1) More middling to lower end in defensive impact if comparing his Estimated Impact to DRAPM/DAPM results of other candidates.


Kobe Bryant
Pros:
1) The most impressive candidate left in terms of accolades.
2) Competitive among candidates in counting stats.

Cons:
1) Perhaps the least impressive major candidate in terms of impact indicators.
2) Inconsistent based on eye-test.


Stacey Augmon
Pros:
1) Length and athleticism, yada yada. Though seriously, this did offer him some considerable defensive versatility in his prime years.
2) Competitive in defensive value/impact above replacement level, as previously outlined.
3) Competitive in counting defensive stats.
4) Very impressive career WOWYR score if we assume is largely comprised by his defensive split.

Cons:
1) Utterly lacking in accolades/awards.
2) Middling to lower end longevity/durability.



I'll make my decision by tomorrow morning and cast a vote.....
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#18 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Nov 1, 2018 10:33 am

Gotta go with Thabo Sefolosha. Had the best single DRAPM season if any wing over a 20 year sample in 2013 and had a really consistently impressive impact from his second season in 2008 all the way through the minutes he got last year in Utah. Seems like he’s clearly the best of the “metric era” and the guys from before that era all have too many holes for me to seriously consider them. The numbers we have on Dumars suggest that a lot of the credit he got was just for being on a team with other good defenders and his actual impact wasn’t that great. Chaney changed teams 3 years in a row in his prime and it didn’t seem to make much of a difference on any of his teams whether he was there or not. I think Thabo’s the guy.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#19 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Nov 1, 2018 10:42 am

trex_8063 wrote:So I've wanted to look at some means of cumulative defensive value above replacement level for various players, sort of like what Bounce_9 had posted about here:

Spoiler:
Bounce_9 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:

btw Bounce_9, is there any chance you'd be willing to compile and present this same data for several of the other candidates [as well as #1-4 already voted in]? I think it would be relevant to the discussion. I'd like to see these same figures for Jordan, Moncrief, Cooper, Allen, as well as Dumars, Doug Christie, Stacey Augmon, Kobe, Wade, maybe Danny Green and Andre Roberson, too.
EDIT: Jimmy Butler, too, if you're willing.


Ok, so I've compiled the data for all the players you mentioned. In the previous post I forgot to say that this is basically Total Defensive Value Over Replacement player so there is a replacement level which I set at -1.5.
I'm gonna present the data for overall career, best 5 years (prime) and peak. If you, or others, have any question about a particular year(s) of any player, just let me know.

OVERALL CAREER DEFENSIVE VALUE:
#1 Jordan 2009.6
#2 Robertson 1546.6
#3 Jones 1520.1
#4 Wade 1297.1
#5 Christie 1180.8
#6 Allen 1000.3
#7 Bryant 993.6
#8 Moncrief 897.7
#9 Cooper 874.2
#10 Green 870.3
#11 Augmon 799.2
#12 Butler 752.8
#13 Roberson 498.8
#14 Dumars 415.8

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Jordan 990.3
#2 Robertson 972.2
#3 Christie 817.2
#4 Jones 749.6
#5 Wade 704.1
#6 Butler 665.4
#7 Green 640.1
#8 Moncrief 628.2
#9 Bryant 558.8
#10 Cooper 523.5
#11 Roberson 498.8
#12 Allen 467.0
#13 Augmon 459.2
#14 Dumars 352.4

PEAK:
#1 Robertson 254.5 (1986)
#2 Jordan 240.7 (1988)
#3 Christie 216.4 (2003)
#4 Roberson 191.2 (2017)
#5 Jones 177.4 (2002)
#6 Green 173.4 (2016)
#7 Butler 173.0 (2014)
#8 Wade 166.0 (2009)
#9 Moncrief 158.0 (1982)
#10 Cooper 144.4 (1981)
#11 Augmon 142.1 (1994)
#12 Bryant 134.2 (2000)
#13 Allen 118.4 (2009)
#14 Dumars 85.0 (1988)

Now I really don't have the time to comment on the data, I will do it tomorrow, as well as voting.


.....but with [primarily] utilizing impact metrics which do NOT incorporate box inputs. So I used DRAPM (PI, where available) for '97-'18, and utilized the rs APM (or pseudo-APM) that colts18 had provided for '94-'96 and made "educated guesses" at the defensive split for players who were active in that span (yes, that's a little "noisy" for those years, but better than nothing).
And then, just so I could be more complete on guys like Joe Dumars (and to lesser degree Stacey Augmon), and so I could be inclusive of Don Chaney, I utilized shutupandjam's estimated impact defensive splits [one of the metric Bounce_9 used] for years '93 and prior. Yes, I realize that violates the premise of using something which does NOT utilize box inputs for those individuals, as well as makes it NOT quite an apples to apples comparison with those players.

I thought -1.5 is fair overall representation of a replacement-level player in the used impact metrics, and assumed that roughly half of that is coming on the defensive end (i.e. -0.75 DRAPM assumed for replacement level). So for each year of a player's career, I took the difference from replacement-level and multiplied by the minutes played.
Below are the results.....

CAREER Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha - 47,383.8
Danny Green - 36,011.6
Stacey Augmon - 35,545.3
Doug Christie - 31,770.4
Jimmy Butler - 30,445.8
Dwyane Wade - 28,323.8
Joe Dumars - 22,583.0
*Don Chaney (*'76 not included)- 21,792.2
Andre Roberson - 19,433.8
Kobe Bryant - 13,224.5

Best Single Year Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha ('13) - 11,479.35
Doug Christie ('03) - 11,246.5
Danny Green ('16) - 7,918.1
Stacey Augmon ('94) - 7,085.6
Jimmy Butler ('18) - 6,643.5
Dwyane Wade ('06) - 6,507.0
Kobe Bryant ('10) - 5,811.75
Andre Roberson ('17) - 5,702.4
Don Chaney ('73) - 4,354.0
Joe Dumars ('91) - 3,807.5

AVERAGE Defensive Value Above Replacement (per season)
Jimmy Butler - 4,349.4
Danny Green - 4,001.3
Thabo Sefolosha - 3,948.6
Andre Roberson - 3,886.8
Doug Christie - 2,647.5
Stacey Augmon - 2,369.7
Don Chaney - 1,981.1
Dwyane Wade - 1,888.3
Joe Dumars - 1,613.1
Kobe Bryant - 661.2


Based on the above, Thabo Sefolosha and Danny Green are two guys I'm considering much more seriously than I was before looking at it this way


I really liked your data a lot and without it I might not have taken such a hard look at Sefolosha. How impressive is it that Thabo not only leads in career defensive value, but does it with a larger margin than the margin between 2nd and 6th while only averaging 23 MPG. His offense isn’t even allowing him to accumulate the same minutes as the other top candidates and he’s not just winning, he’s blowing them out of the water. I think this makes it clear that as a purely defensive guard, taking offense out of the equation, he should have a large edge on these guys he’s being compared to.
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Re: #8 Best Defensive Shooting Guard of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project 

Post#20 » by Owly » Thu Nov 1, 2018 10:51 am

trex_8063 wrote:So I've wanted to look at some means of cumulative defensive value above replacement level for various players, sort of like what Bounce_9 had posted about here:

Spoiler:
Bounce_9 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:

btw Bounce_9, is there any chance you'd be willing to compile and present this same data for several of the other candidates [as well as #1-4 already voted in]? I think it would be relevant to the discussion. I'd like to see these same figures for Jordan, Moncrief, Cooper, Allen, as well as Dumars, Doug Christie, Stacey Augmon, Kobe, Wade, maybe Danny Green and Andre Roberson, too.
EDIT: Jimmy Butler, too, if you're willing.


Ok, so I've compiled the data for all the players you mentioned. In the previous post I forgot to say that this is basically Total Defensive Value Over Replacement player so there is a replacement level which I set at -1.5.
I'm gonna present the data for overall career, best 5 years (prime) and peak. If you, or others, have any question about a particular year(s) of any player, just let me know.

OVERALL CAREER DEFENSIVE VALUE:
#1 Jordan 2009.6
#2 Robertson 1546.6
#3 Jones 1520.1
#4 Wade 1297.1
#5 Christie 1180.8
#6 Allen 1000.3
#7 Bryant 993.6
#8 Moncrief 897.7
#9 Cooper 874.2
#10 Green 870.3
#11 Augmon 799.2
#12 Butler 752.8
#13 Roberson 498.8
#14 Dumars 415.8

5 YEARS PRIME:
#1 Jordan 990.3
#2 Robertson 972.2
#3 Christie 817.2
#4 Jones 749.6
#5 Wade 704.1
#6 Butler 665.4
#7 Green 640.1
#8 Moncrief 628.2
#9 Bryant 558.8
#10 Cooper 523.5
#11 Roberson 498.8
#12 Allen 467.0
#13 Augmon 459.2
#14 Dumars 352.4

PEAK:
#1 Robertson 254.5 (1986)
#2 Jordan 240.7 (1988)
#3 Christie 216.4 (2003)
#4 Roberson 191.2 (2017)
#5 Jones 177.4 (2002)
#6 Green 173.4 (2016)
#7 Butler 173.0 (2014)
#8 Wade 166.0 (2009)
#9 Moncrief 158.0 (1982)
#10 Cooper 144.4 (1981)
#11 Augmon 142.1 (1994)
#12 Bryant 134.2 (2000)
#13 Allen 118.4 (2009)
#14 Dumars 85.0 (1988)

Now I really don't have the time to comment on the data, I will do it tomorrow, as well as voting.


.....but with [primarily] utilizing impact metrics which do NOT incorporate box inputs. So I used DRAPM (PI, where available) for '97-'18, and utilized the rs APM (or pseudo-APM) that colts18 had provided for '94-'96 and made "educated guesses" at the defensive split for players who were active in that span (yes, that's a little "noisy" for those years, but better than nothing).
And then, just so I could be more complete on guys like Joe Dumars (and to lesser degree Stacey Augmon), and so I could be inclusive of Don Chaney, I utilized shutupandjam's estimated impact defensive splits [one of the metric Bounce_9 used] for years '93 and prior. Yes, I realize that violates the premise of using something which does NOT utilize box inputs for those individuals, as well as makes it NOT quite an apples to apples comparison with those players.

I thought -1.5 is fair overall representation of a replacement-level player in the used impact metrics, and assumed that roughly half of that is coming on the defensive end (i.e. -0.75 DRAPM assumed for replacement level). So for each year of a player's career, I took the difference from replacement-level and multiplied by the minutes played.
Below are the results.....

CAREER Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha - 47,383.8
Danny Green - 36,011.6
Stacey Augmon - 35,545.3
Doug Christie - 31,770.4
Jimmy Butler - 30,445.8
Dwyane Wade - 28,323.8
Joe Dumars - 22,583.0
*Don Chaney (*'76 not included)- 21,792.2
Andre Roberson - 19,433.8
Kobe Bryant - 13,224.5

Best Single Year Defensive Value Above Replacement
Thabo Sefolosha ('13) - 11,479.35
Doug Christie ('03) - 11,246.5
Danny Green ('16) - 7,918.1
Stacey Augmon ('94) - 7,085.6
Jimmy Butler ('18) - 6,643.5
Dwyane Wade ('06) - 6,507.0
Kobe Bryant ('10) - 5,811.75
Andre Roberson ('17) - 5,702.4
Don Chaney ('73) - 4,354.0
Joe Dumars ('91) - 3,807.5

AVERAGE Defensive Value Above Replacement (per season)
Jimmy Butler - 4,349.4
Danny Green - 4,001.3
Thabo Sefolosha - 3,948.6
Andre Roberson - 3,886.8
Doug Christie - 2,647.5
Stacey Augmon - 2,369.7
Don Chaney - 1,981.1
Dwyane Wade - 1,888.3
Joe Dumars - 1,613.1
Kobe Bryant - 661.2


Based on the above, Thabo Sefolosha and Danny Green are two guys I'm considering much more seriously than I was before looking at it this way.

Given his DRAPM numbers, might it be worth inputting Jaren Jackson Sr's data and see where he comes out? Just a suggestion.

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