#8 Best Defensive Small Forward of all time - The ten best defenders in each position project

[Gibson22]

Bruce Bowen won the run off. Everybody can vote


1. Jason Kidd
2. Walt Frazier
3. Gary Payton
4. Dennis Johnson
5. Jerry West
6. John Stockton
7. Chris Paul
8. Mookie Blaylock
9. Nate McMillan
10. Mo Cheeks

Shooting Guards:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Tony Allen
4. Michael Cooper
5. Alvin Robertson
6. Eddie Jones
7. Jerry Sloan
8. Joe Dumars
9. Danny Green
10. Don Chaney

Small Forwards:


1. Scottie Pippen
2. Ron Artest
3. Lebron James
4. Andre Iguodala
5. Shane Battier
6. John Havlicek
7. Bruce Bowen


And this is where it started
Idea


THE CANDIDATES

Tom Sanders (1961-73) Celtics
Joe Caldwell (1965-1975) Pistons, St.Louis Hawks, Atlanta Hawks, Carolina Cougars, Spirits of St.Louis
Willie Wise (1970-78) Los Angeles Stars, Utah Stars, Virginia Squires, Denver Nuggets, Seattle
Bob Dandridge (1970-82) Bucks, Bullets
Julius Erving (1972-87) Virginia Squires, New York Nets, 76ers
Jamaal Wilkes (1975-86) Warriors, Lakers, Clippers
Bill Hanzlik (1981-90) Seattle, Nuggets
Paul Pressey (1983-93) Bucks, Spurs, Warriors
Rodney McCray (1984-93) Houston, Sacramento, Dallas, Bulls
Derrick McKey (1988-2002) Seattle, Indiana, 76ers
Rick Fox (1992-04) Celtics, Lakers
George Lynch (1994-05) Lakers, Vancouver Grizzlies, 76ers, Hornets
Grant Hill (1995-13) Detroit, Magic, Suns, Clippers
Posey (2000-11) Nuggets, Rockets, Grizzlies, Heat, Boston, Hornets, Pacers
Marion (2000-15) Suns, Heat, Toronto, Dallas, Cleveland
Stephen Jackson (2001-14) Nets, Spurs, Hawks, Pacers, Warriors, Charlotte, Bucks, Spurs, Clippers
Andrei Kirilenko (2002-15) Jazz, Minnesota, Nets
Gerald Wallace (2002-15) Sacramento, Charlotte, Blazers, Nets, Celtics
Tayshaun Prince (2003-16) Detroit, Grizzlies, Celtics, Minnesota
Luol Deng (2005-19+) Bulls, Cavaliers, Heat, Lakers, Minnesota
Paul George (2011-19+) Pacers, OKC
Kawhi Leonard (2012-19+) Spurs, Raptors
Robert Covington (2014-19+) 76ers




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[iggymcfrack]

Still sticking with Deng. The numbers love him and I don’t see any reason to change.

[Gooner]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

[70sFan]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

I wouldn't go that far and it doesn't change the fact that he had great prime. I wouldn't have him in top 3 personally, but I wouldn't have MJ 1st at SG either. I just have to live with that.

[kendogg]

I'm going Shawn Marion. It was between him, Deng and Kirilenko for me. Also starting to consider Kawhi despite my concerns over his durability and how young his career is.

If it was ABA/NBA combined, I'd include Dr J as well in my considerations at this point. I think his defense is actually underrated around here. His steals and blocks numbers clearly only tell part of the story of Dr J's defense. He didn't have as many big step up moments as say Jordan who is another athletic freak wing player, and he got labeled as coasting on defense more than Jordan did during the regular season, he was never a poor defender and at times doing things defensively that no other player in the league could do.

[trex_8063]

Once again going to present some ranked and concise multi-modal stat/data/info comparisons for most of the top candidates for this spot plus a few of the guys recently voted in (colored)----including Lebron, since someone has popped stating his position is absurd----as well as several other persons of interest (some of whom perhaps should be among the primary candidates): Covington, Gerald Wallace, Paul George, ***Paul Pressey, Derrick McKey (***new additions since last thread), Tayshaun Prince, Bob Dandridge. For DVOR figures I've used the defensive splits of Estimated Impact for Hondo, Dandridge, Pressey, and some of McKey’s career. EI is likely less reliable than DRAPM, but any port in a storm for these older players. Although fwiw, I do feel the standard deviation on EI tends to be a pinch less than RAPM, so the numbers are often smaller than the RAPM figures: this goes for negative scores as well as positive ones, though for these guys it’s mostly positive figures (i.e. Estimated Impact split might be [marginally] underselling some relative to what DRAPM shows for others; just bear that in mind).
Use this info [or not] as you wish......

I’m bolding my pick for Luol Deng, just to highlight where he sits among this group. He is the single-best SF left on the table in terms of impact-measures (no matter how I split or evaluate it). As I noted in previous thread, he also appears to be a key piece [if not the main anchor in some years] of multiple elite-level defenses for two different coaches, including one year where Joakim Noah missed 34 games and the primary PF was Carlos Boozer--->they still posted a -7.0 rDRTG.


All-Defensive Honors "Points" (awarding 1.5 pts for 1st Team selection, 1.0 for 2nd Team)
John Havlicek - 10.5 (*All-D honors only awarded his final 10 seasons)
Bruce Bowen - 10.5
Lebron James - 8.5
Kawhi Leonard - 5.5
Tayshaun Prince - 4.0
Paul Pressey - 4.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 3.5
Paul George - 3.5
Andre Iguodala - 2.5
Shane Battier - 2.0
Derrick McKey - 2.0
Robert Covington - 1.5
Gerald Wallace - 1.5
Bob Dandridge - 1.5
Luol Deng - 1.0
Shawn Marion - 0!

DPOY Shares
Kawhi Leonard - 1.736 (2x winner)
Bruce Bowen - 1.514
Lebron James - 0.886
Shane Battier - 0.548
Andrei Kirilenko - 0.366
Shawn Marion - 0.341
Gerald Wallace - 0.274
Andre Iguodala - 0.265
Paul George - 0.217
Paul Pressey - 0.154
Tayshaun Prince - 0.112
Luol Deng - 0.082
Robert Covington - 0.024
Derrick McKey - 0.019
**DPOY not awarded in Havlicek's and Dandridge’s career

Career DBPM (not including '19)
Andrei Kirilenko - +3.5
Kawhi Leonard - +2.7
Gerald Wallace - +2.3
Shawn Marion - +2.1
Lebron James - +1.9
Shane Battier - +1.9
Bruce Bowen - +1.8
Andre Iguodala - +1.6
Paul Pressey - +1.6
Derrick McKey - +1.5
Paul George - +1.2
Robert Covington - +1.0
Luol Deng - +0.7
Tayshaun Prince - +0.2
*John Havlicek - +0.1 (*only available his final five seasons)
*Bob Dandridge - +0.1 (*not available his first four seasons)

Career DWS (not including '19)
John Havlicek - 74.1
Lebron James - 64.4
Shawn Marion - 61.3
Andre Iguodala - 44.1
Luol Deng - 38.9
Shane Battier - 35.3
Gerald Wallace - 35.0
Andrei Kirilenko - 34.7
Bruce Bowen - 33.5
Bob Dandridge - 33.0
Derrick McKey - 30.6
Paul George - 29.8
Paul Pressey - 28.0
Tayshaun Prince - 28.0
Kawhi Leonard - 24.7
Robert Covington - 12.1

Defensive Value Over Replacement Level [-0.75] as measured by DRAPM (Defensive Estimated Impact for Havlicek, Dandridge, Pressey, some of McKey)
CAREER Defensive Value Over Replacement
Andre Iguodala - 94,380.5
Lebron James - 81,906.4
Luol Deng - 77,700.0
John Havlicek - 74,842.5
Shane Battier - 73,682.5
Shawn Marion - 66,215.6
Gerald Wallace - 63,032.0
Bruce Bowen - 51,345.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 40,306.35
Paul George - 39,813.7
Bob Dandridge - 32,717.5
Paul Pressey - 31,816.05
Derrick McKey - 30,092.2
Kawhi Leonard - 29,493.5
Tayshaun Prince - 26,136.7
Robert Covington - 25,349.9

Average Defensive Value Over Replacement PER SEASON
Andre Iguodala - 6,741.5
Shane Battier - 5,667.9
Luol Deng - 5,550.0
Lebron James - 5,460.4
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Paul George - 4,976.7
John Havlicek - 4,677.7
Gerald Wallace - 4,502.3
Bruce Bowen - 4,278.8
Kawhi Leonard - 4,213.4
Shawn Marion - 4,138.5
Andrei Kirilenko - 3,100.5
Paul Pressey - 2,892.4
Bob Dandridge - 2,516.7
Derrick McKey - 2,006.1
Tayshaun Prince - 1,866.9

Best 5-years Averaged
Shane Battier - 10,586.0
Luol Deng - 9,658.2
Andre Iguodala - 9,456.6
Lebron James - 9,417.8
Gerald Wallace - 8,470.9
Shawn Marion - 7,869.2
Paul George - 7,530.1
John Havlicek - 6,472.1
Bruce Bowen - 6,280.9
Kawhi Leonard - 6,031.8
Andrei Kirilenko - 5,612.9
Robert Covington - 5,070.0
Tayshaun Prince - 4,917.2
Paul Pressey - 4,543.1
Bob Dandridge - 4,219.1
Derrick McKey - 3,930.55

Best Single-Season VOR
Luol Deng - 14,917.2
Shane Battier - 14,053.05
Paul George - 13,522.6
Shawn Marion - 12,713.65
Robert Covington - 12,254.9
Andre Iguodala - 11,810.75
Lebron James - 10,841.7
Kawhi Leonard - 10,805.2
Gerald Wallace - 10,760.55
Bruce Bowen - 7,711.2
Tayshaun Prince - 7,677.9
John Havlicek - 7,239.05
Andrei Kirilenko - 6,639.95
Paul Pressey - 6,354.4
Derrick McKey - 5,189.25
Bob Dandridge - 4,991.0

And I've added a couple new means by which to scrutinize the impact data (DRAPM). Although I've provided peak season DVOR and best 5-year avg DVOR, it's all based upon minutes played......which I thought perhaps overly penalizes minor durability issues, as well as perhaps lower minute players. Take Kawhi for example: is it really that big of a deal if he misses 10 or 16 rs games? Arguably, arguably not; but he'll take a hit for it in my above methodology.

So I'm adding in two new categories:
1) Taking their five best seasons by raw DRAPM (defensive Estimated Impact for Hondo and Dandridge), and averaging them (no weighting for minutes or games played in each season, though must have played at least 500 minutes in a given season for it to be used). This hopefully provides a better look at their per minute/possession impact when on the court thru their best five defensive years.
2) Taking their five best seasons in DVOR, and dividing it by the total number of games played in those years (again must be 500 minute minimum). This should better illuminate average DVOR per game thru their five best defensive seasons.

Going with best 5-year samples, as we're still talking about career defensive value; so a one-year peak or even a best 3-year sample is just too small, imo.

Best 5-Year DRAPM Avg
Shane Battier: +3.18
Andre Iguodala: +3.00
Luol Deng: +2.54
Gerald Wallace: +2.54
Lebron James: +2.48
Andrei Kirilenko: +2.200
Bruce Bowen: +2.198
Shawn Marion: +2.16
Robert Covington: +2.07* (*only four seasons with 500+ minutes)
Kawhi Leonard: +2.06
Paul George: +1.92
John Havlicek: +1.40
Paul Pressey: +1.24
Tayshaun Prince: +1.13
Derrick McKey: +0.79
Bob Dandridge: +0.76

Avg DVOR Per Game in Best 5 years
Shane Battier: 138.20
Luol Deng: 128.43
Andre Iguodala: 128.14
Lebron James: 121.99
Gerald Wallace: 121.36
Shawn Marion: 107.21
Paul George: 94.84
Andrei Kirilenko: 91.42
Kawhi Leonard: 90.30
Robert Covington: 89.16* (*only four seasons with 500+ minutes)
John Havlicek: 79.52
Bruce Bowen: 76.78
Paul Pressey: 60.90
Tayshaun Prince: 60.86
Bob Dandridge: 55.81
Derrick McKey: 50.52

[trex_8063]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

I wouldn't go that far and it doesn't change the fact that he had great prime. I wouldn't have him in top 3 personally, but I wouldn't have MJ 1st at SG either. I just have to live with that.

Agree it's a big overstatement. See all the means of evaluation that I provided in post #6; I've included the last FIVE Sf's to get voted in, plus all major candidates (and a few others).......among them all, Lebron's worst rank in any of those categories is 7th----in the minute-weighted Single-season Best Defensive Value Over Replacement Level (Kawhi ranks 8th in that category, fwiw); he ranks no worse than 5th in any of the others, and is as high as 2nd in a few of them.

I personally would have had him probably at 5th (maybe 4th), but calling the rank he got "a joke" is clearly unfounded (as is Kawhi's exclusion from the top 7, fwiw; this is a CAREER defensive imprint project, and it's been stated and restated ad nauseum that longevity matters to many of us). Tunnel-vision on only Lebron's last year or two defensively isn't what the project is about.

[Luigi]

Please remove my from the list (I don't want t vote anymore, and I wasn't a top 10 defender)

[cecilthesheep]

Voting for Kawhi, and probably will be until the end at this point. Nobody's peaked as high as he did, and he's still very good even at 90% of what he used to be.

[Threetimes10]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

He's not by any metric

[penbeast0]

Although the impact stats seem to favor Deng and are pushing me to consider him, I am still going with Shawn Marion. It's more eye test than anything else; Marion seemed to have more effect on opposing teams than Deng did. trex is pushing me to consider Deng though; he wasn't even on my radar coming into this project as a top 10 guy.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Vote Kawhi.
If Kawhi is not in the run off my vote goes to Paul Pressey.
We can pretty much know Paul Pressey is not in the run off.
My 3rd place vote run off vote goes to Marion

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

All of those stats are derived from box scores; right?

Steals, blocks and rebounds right.
Maybe the team's pace adjusted ability to hold the other team score down might be in the stats if the stats are made well.

Isn't Drapm supposed to be a plus minus based stat? How can Drapm have players before on off stats were kept?
There is no plus minus in the misleadingly named box plus minus. Box plus minus is the source for VORP. DVORP just drops out the offensive stats. People have criticized the use of rebounds in defensive stats.

Where can I find the a good listing of the components of these stats.?

[70sFan]

I believe that Kirilenko, Kawhi, Sanders and Pressey are better defenders than Deng and Marion, but they don't have as long careers. It's close, quite strange to see Kirilenko not in top 7 honestly.

[Gibson22]

In my opinion there are 3 must have left and they are marion, kirilenko and kawhi. I'm voting for maron

[iggymcfrack]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

LeBron’s played 55,000 RS + PS minutes. He’s been to the Finals every season this decade. He hasn’t missed a playoff game in his entire career. He’s played almost as many minutes in the playoffs as Kawhi has in the regular season. If he doesn’t have the energy to hustle on D in the regular season any more, I think you have to cut him some slack. It’s not like he’s lazy or something. He’s just played an insane amount of basketball, and he knows that this is the only way he’ll have the energy to still play like the GOAT come playoff time at 34 years of age. I don’t know why you’d wanna punish someone for giving his team the maximum chance to be a champion.

[iggymcfrack]

I believe that Kirilenko, Kawhi, Sanders and Pressey are better defenders than Deng and Marion, but they don't have as long careers. It's close, quite strange to see Kirilenko not in top 7 honestly.

He was the one I had closest to Deng. My first instinct was to put him higher, but looking at how short his peak was and how valuable Deng’s was, I couldn’t quite do it. I’d definitely have him ahead of some of the players already voted in though.

If we’re looking at short peak guys, how about Covington? He’s really gone to a new level the last year or two. We don’t have a long sample to verify it, but I think he’s probably playing better defense right now than peak Kawhi. I’d like to see him at least get a look before we finish the SFs.

[iggymcfrack]

All of those stats are derived from box scores; right?

Steals, blocks and rebounds right.
Maybe the team's pace adjusted ability to hold the other team score down might be in the stats if the stats are made well.

Isn't Drapm supposed to be a plus minus based stat? How can Drapm have players before on off stats were kept?
There is no plus minus in the misleadingly named box plus minus. Box plus minus is the source for VORP. DVORP just drops out the offensive stats. People have criticized the use of rebounds in defensive stats.

Where can I find the a good listing of the components of these stats.?

You can find DRAPM back to the mid-to-late 90s. Before that, you’re kind of flying blind to some extent although there are things like WOWY that you can try to work backwards with as a partial proxy.

[Gooner]

LeBron being third,and Kawhi not being selected yet is a joke.LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

LeBron’s played 55,000 RS + PS minutes. He’s been to the Finals every season this decade. He hasn’t missed a playoff game in his entire career. He’s played almost as many minutes in the playoffs as Kawhi has in the regular season. If he doesn’t have the energy to hustle on D in the regular season any more, I think you have to cut him some slack. It’s not like he’s lazy or something. He’s just played an insane amount of basketball, and he knows that this is the only way he’ll have the energy to still play like the GOAT come playoff time at 34 years of age. I don’t know why you’d wanna punish someone for giving his team the maximum chance to be a champion.

If he has energy to play,than he has to use some of it on defense.He is just concerned about his numbers.I'm not giving him a pass.

[LA Bird]

LeBron is the worst defender in the league right now,and that's a stain on his overall defensive legacy.

Yes, the player with a respectable -4.7% difference on opponent FG%, -1.0 team defensive on/off and is top 10 among SFs at +1.06 DRPM is definitely the worst defender in the league right now.

Answer the post, don't comment on the poster.

Jokes aside, I will vote for Shawn Marion