SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:trex_8063 wrote:DVOR."
DVOR likes Gerald Wallace.
Drapm also I think.
Almost necessarily so (if DVOR likes him). Remember DVOR is derived directly from DRAPM.
SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:I would not have expected plus minus stats to like Gerald Wallace. I understand why Box score stats would love Gerald Wallace's rebounding.
Gerald Wallace had the athleticism to be a great defender but I never thought he was a better than average defender. Was I wrong? Was Gerald Wallace an unacknowledged great defender?
I wouldn't say unacknowledged, but perhaps
under-acknowledged???
Wallace never
quite had a DRAPM season to match Kawhi's best year (or even Kawhi's best TWO years); close, but not quite. Few SF's ever have had a single-season DRAPM to match Kawhi's best: Luol Deng did once ('11; marginally
bested Kawhi's best, actually), Robert Covington's '18 (rs-only) DRAPM is a little better than Kawhi's, and Shane Battier actually has the single-best ever DRAPM by a SF (has one other season that's basically on par with Kawhi's best, too); and Shawn Marion had one season that nearly matches Kawhi's best (though it's an NPI year ['01], which I'm a little more skeptical of because I find NPI more "noisy", especially when it appears to be a clear outlier in his career [which it is]).
But the thing is, RAPM assesses a player's effectiveness on a per possession basis, and obviously a player cannot effect a possession if he's not ON THE FLOOR. This is where Kawhi can suffer compared to others: in his three best DRAPM years ('14-'16), he missed at least 10 (and as many as 18) games in EACH of those three years, and also NEVER averaged as many as 34 mpg.
Compare that to Gerald Wallace: in his best years he was [on average] missing a roughly comparable number of games, but he was averaging anywhere from 36-41 mpg (avg around 38 mpg). So where his impact might be a little less [on a per possession basis], he was asserting his positive effect on roughly 20% more possessions PER GAME/PER SEASON than Kawhi was. This is the thing that DVOR attempted to quantify: accounting of defensive value above replacement level per season, per season in best 3 or 5-year splits, per game in best years, etc.
fwiw, prior to this project if someone had asked me who I thought exerted the most positive influence defensively [in their best seasons] between Kawhi, Battier, Deng, and Gerald Wallace, I probably would have [based on eye-test] ordered it:
Kawhi
Battier
Deng/Wallace
Closer scrutiny of the impact metrics has certainly made me question that order. Not that the metrics are infallible, and not that we should disregard the "eye-test". imo, one should temper the other.
Kawhi at his best exerted a lot of influence in ways that appear on the boxscore: he generated lots of turnovers, had a fair number of blocks (for a SF), and was pretty good on the defensive boards too. The steals in particular are the type of defensive plays that are very obvious to casual fans and frequently make the highlight reels.
Something like moving one's feet well and cutting off penetration and forcing a difficult mid-range shot and/or forcing the ball back outside for a reset with the shotclock running down, otoh, is not something that ever makes the highlight reel (and is frequently something that a casual fan never realizes busted the possession for the opposing team).
Not that Kawhi doesn't also frequently move his feet well or do other non-box related things defensively. Just making a point that the non-box/non-highlight reel plays are the plays that are more easily missed (and thus not credited to the player). Kawhi will never be "missed" because he IS doing the box-related things too. Someone like Deng might be "missed", though. Wallace is somewhere in between.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
