#9 Greatest Defensive C of All-Time - Top 10 Defense at each position project

[trex_8063]

Point Guards:

1. Jason Kidd
2. Walt Frazier
3. Gary Payton
4. Dennis Johnson
5. Jerry West
6. John Stockton
7. Chris Paul
8. Mookie Blaylock
9. Nate McMillan
10. Mo Cheeks

Shooting Guards:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Sidney Moncrief
3. Tony Allen
4. Michael Cooper
5. Alvin Robertson
6. Eddie Jones
7. Jerry Sloan
8. Joe Dumars
9. Danny Green
10. Don Chaney


Small Forwards:

1. Scottie Pippen
2. Ron Artest
3. Lebron James
4. Andre Iguodala
5. Shane Battier
6. John Havlicek
7. Bruce Bowen
8. Shawn Marion
9. Luol Deng
10. Kawhi Leonard


Power Forwards:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Kevin Garnett
3. Bobby Jones
4. Dennis Rodman
5. Elvin Hayes
6. Dave DeBusschere
7. Draymond Green
8. Kevin McHale
9. Rasheed Wallace
10. Horace Grant


Centers:

1. Bill Russell
2. Hakeem Olajuwon
3. David Robinson
4. Dikembe Mutombo
5. Wilt Chamberlain
6. Nate Thurmond
7. Ben Wallace
8. Patrick Ewing

And this is where it started
Idea


THE CANDIDATES
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Alonzo Mourning
Dwight Howard
Bill Walton
Rudy Gobert
George Mikan
Artis Gilmore
Willis Reed
Wes Unseld
Jack Sikma
Andrew Bogut
Tree Rollins
Theo Ratliff
Mark Eaton
Manute Bol
Shawn Bradley
Marc Gasol
Tyson Chandler
Marcus Camby
Joakim Noah
DeAndre Jordan
Roy Hibbert
Dave Cowens
Robert Parish
Vlade Divac
George Johnson
Caldwell Jones
Clifford Ray
Bill Laimbeer
Yao Ming
Nene Hilario
Al Horford
[/b]



Hi guys

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[cecilthesheep]

Voting for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar again. Best mixture of peak and longevity remaining imo. Strongly considering Dwight Howard for my final vote.

[Dr Positivity]

I think Mourning deserves legitimate consideration against Kareem. The longevity gap isn't so bad if you preferred him as a defender. Mid 80s Kareem may be contributing less defensively than mid 2000s backup C Mourning

[Samurai]

Repeating my vote for Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Kareem has 11 All Defensive Team awards (5 firsts and 6 seconds), which is more than any of the center candidates (Duncan and KG had more, but they were listed in this project as PF's). There also appears to be some varying interpretations of the context for such accolades. First, some caution has to be used in player comparisons as this award did not exist prior to 1969 so you can't use this award in comparison to players before then. Second, consideration must be given to your competitors for such an award; if such an award did exist prior to 69, it is doubtful any center other than Russell would have won a first team selection during the 60's. Not because that center under consideration is necessarily a poor defender; it would just be unlikely anyone else could have won one when you are competing with Russell for the award. And third, such an accolade is determined by voting among human beings, which necessarily means that the outcome could be impacted with the inherent biases of said humans voting for the award. For example, Kobe had more All Defensive team selections than of the SG's in this projects' SG voting, but did not make the top ten himself. That being said, such accolades are simply a fact - a historical fact - and thus they are a relevant datapoint for discussion. Just how relevant it is depends on how much (or how little) weight you give to the contextual factors.

For me, it is the eye test more than accolades that is driving my particular vote. As I've posted repeatedly before, no center that I have seen has impacted another team's offensive strategy to the degree that Kareem did in Milwaukee. (Note: I am not including Russell since I only saw him in his last 2 years). Kareem took away the other team's penetration to such a degree that the Bucks were able to clearly overplay their man to one side, just daring them to drive to the rim. And when they did, Kareem discouraged the drivers to such an extent that by the second half they resorted to outside jump shots. I make no claims as to whether Kareem could or could not have had the same impact in another era; but in his era (particularly during his Milwaukee years), no other center that I have seen could change the other team's offensive strategy to the same degree that Kareem did as a help defender.

I believe that Kareem's defense tends to be underrated, particularly in comparison to those centers who were much better defensively than offensively. When most fans think of a Russell, or a Mutumbo, or a Wallace, they typically think of their great defense first - not their offense. Kareem is different in that he would be on a short list for best offensive centers of all time. As a result, Kareem's defense is not typically discussed, or IMO, it is underrated since his offense was so dominant. As the defensive anchor in Milwaukee, the Bucks were a great defensive team that typically allowed about 4 points less than league average from 71-74 while allowing the lowest opponent shooting percentage each of those years. And ElGee pointed out that as a man defender, Kareem typically held the scoring of the best offensive centers from 73-77 (McAdoo, Lanier, Issel, Walton) below what they did against the rest of the league.

[kendogg]

I'm sticking with Kareem on this one.

[iggymcfrack]

Yeah, definitely still going with Kareem. I don't see how you can say longevity wasn't an issue for Mourning. His last elite season was at age 29, and he didn't average a ton of games even before that. Even if you cut off Kareem after '82, the last year he averaged over 2.5 BPG, that's still almost twice as many games as Mourning. And are we really sure that the Kareem who led the league in blocks 4 out of 6 years was on a massively different level than Zo? Not to lean on blocks too hard, but I'm just saying it's a lot different image than what people think of with Lakers Kareem. I feel like there was a better advanced stats argument somewhere that partially convinced me when I'd been skeptical of Kareem's D before, but I can't really remember what it was. Initially I thought he should have had more of an impact defensively when he was traded, but a lot of that is due to the fact that Elmore Smith (one of the players he was traded for) was also a very good defender.

[HeartBreakKid]

Dwight Howard was a much better PNR guy than Kareem and pretty much killed him on glass (Kareems' RPG is only close because of pace and to an extent minutes played). Howard was the best defender in the league almost undisputedly from 2009-2011 and was probably still the best defender in the league in 2012 as well. I am not sure if Kareem Abdul Jabar was ever the best defender in the the world (he probably wasn't).

In terms of rim protection - Howard's prime is pretty comparable to Kareem's, albeit obviously his prime is much shorter.

Howard was able to anchor incredible defenses despite having no other all-defense talent, often times his starting roster would consist of guys who were closer to bad defensive players than good ones - and this was common for him in almost his entire Orlando run. I am not sure if Kareem has any feats comparable to that.

My vote goes to Dwight Howard.

[70sFan]

Dwight Howard was a much better PNR guy than Kareem and pretty much killed him on glass (Kareems' RPG is only close because of pace and to an extent minutes played). Howard was the best defender in the league almost undisputedly from 2009-2011 and was probably still the best defender in the league in 2012 as well. I am not sure if Kareem Abdul Jabar was ever the best defender in the the world (he probably wasn't).

In terms of rim protection - Howard's prime is pretty comparable to Kareem's, albeit obviously his prime is much shorter.

Howard was able to anchor incredible defenses despite having no other all-defense talent, often times his starting roster would consist of guys who were closer to bad defensive players than good ones - and this was common for him in almost his entire Orlando run. I am not sure if Kareem has any feats comparable to that.

My vote goes to Dwight Howard.

Howard wasn't undisputedly better defender than KG in 2010 and definitely wasn't better than either of Duncan/KG in 2012. Kareem had the case for the best defender in the league in many years - 1971-74 (you can argue Wilt in 1972 and 1973, Thurmond in 1971-73), 1977 and 1981.

On top of that, Kareem was elite defender for around 14 years (he started to decline after 1983). Howard was in his defensive prime for what - 5 years? The difference is huge and post-2015 Dwight doesn't add any value at all.

Their shotblocking numbers are comparable, but Kareem did that for almost three times longer. I get that Dwight's peak is impressive but is it enough to overcome such a huge difference in longevity? It's not like Kareem lacked high impact here, you can find his 4 best seasons that are at least comparable.

[HeartBreakKid]

Dwight Howard was a much better PNR guy than Kareem and pretty much killed him on glass (Kareems' RPG is only close because of pace and to an extent minutes played). Howard was the best defender in the league almost undisputedly from 2009-2011 and was probably still the best defender in the league in 2012 as well. I am not sure if Kareem Abdul Jabar was ever the best defender in the the world (he probably wasn't).

In terms of rim protection - Howard's prime is pretty comparable to Kareem's, albeit obviously his prime is much shorter.

Howard was able to anchor incredible defenses despite having no other all-defense talent, often times his starting roster would consist of guys who were closer to bad defensive players than good ones - and this was common for him in almost his entire Orlando run. I am not sure if Kareem has any feats comparable to that.

My vote goes to Dwight Howard.

Howard wasn't undisputedly better defender than KG in 2010

Why do you think that? That was one of the worst seasons Garnett had in his career up to that point. I can't recall anyone at that time thinking Garnett was a better defender than Howard - and I can't recall any retrospective arguments that have argued that as well.

and definitely wasn't better than either of Duncan/KG in 2012.

Not sure I agree with that. That was pretty clearly prime Dwight Howard, and for some reason that season is brushed under the rug from him.

Kareem had the case for the best defender in the league in many years - 1971-74 (you can argue Wilt in 1972 and 1973, Thurmond in 1971-73), 1977 and 1981.

You can argue that Kareem Abdul Jabar was a better defender than Wilt Chamberlain? I genuinely think you cannot...ditto with Nate Thurmond. But even then - you are agreeing with me by using the word arguable. There was certainly a point in D Howard career where he was the the best defender in the league and it happened on more than one occasion.

You are also ignoring many other defenders of that decade like Bobby Jones, Elvin Hayes, Bill Walton and Artis Gilmore (ABA). I am not even sure why people think Kareem was a better defender than Dave Cowens other than his glamor stats.

On top of that, Kareem was elite defender for around 14 years (he started to decline after 1983). Howard was in his defensive prime for what - 5 years? The difference is huge and post-2015 Dwight doesn't add any value at all.

Define elite.

Their shotblocking numbers are comparable, but Kareem did that for almost three times longer. I get that Dwight's peak is impressive but is it enough to overcome such a huge difference in longevity? It's not like Kareem lacked high impact here, you can find his 4 best seasons that are at least comparable.

You could say the same thing with Ben Wallace, yet Wallace is sitting pretty on the list.

[penbeast0]

My candidates: Rudy Gobert (really short career), Dwight Howard (shorter prime), Alonzo Mourning, Artis Gilmore (post prime not impressive), Kareem (longevity is a plus for him as always), George Mikan (on the general theory that he was the most dominant player of his day and tends to get ignored rather than because I have particularly good information).

Tentative vote Kareem for the longevity and he was elite from my eye test through the 70s and into the beginning of the 80s.

[trex_8063]

I think Mourning deserves legitimate consideration against Kareem. The longevity gap isn't so bad if you preferred him as a defender. Mid 80s Kareem may be contributing less defensively than mid 2000s backup C Mourning

Yeah, but even if we restrict our scrutiny of Kareem to just '70-'82 (basically elite or at least "very good" defensively all of those years), that still amounts to nearly 15k more minutes than Zo played in his entire career. This isn't even including one other All-D 2nd team season he had in '84, fwiw.

The longevity gap is actually quite enormous.

[trex_8063]

I’m going to again post a limited number of comparisons by several aggregates, including various DVOR (defensive value over replacement) splits, as I had in prior threads. EDITS SINCE LAST TIME: Have added Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler.
Players already voted in highlighted in blue.

NOTES (read please):
*For anyone new to this, DVOR is NOT to be confused with DVORP (derived from bbref’s VORP figures). DVOR utilizes (where ever possible) DRAPM [available for ‘97 and after] and minutes played, with “replacement level” being defined as -0.75.
**For ‘94-’96, we have another plus/minus metric available in the form of rs-only APM. This figure is used for those seasons, along with guidance by BPM to estimate the offense:defense splits on the APM number.
***For seasons prior to ‘94, in previous threads I’d been using shutupandjam’s Estimated Impact (EI) defensive splits. However, anyone following this close will know by now that the domain on that site expired, so it is no longer available. I had recorded the numbers for Bill Russell and Hakeem’s pre-’94 seasons before the site went down, so I have them.

But this will prevent me from including other “old-timers” such as Wilt or Thurmond in these comparisons.

****For the pre-’94 seasons of David Robinson, Dikembe Mutombo, Patrick Ewing, and Alonzo Mourning, I simply used (0.75 * DBPM) as an estimate. I didn’t use the full DBPM value, as I feel that can sometimes overstate things (relative to a typical DRAPM). That might be marginally short-changing them for those years, so bear that in mind.

*****In DVOR per game in best 5 years, it might not be the same five years as in the cumulative avg.

******Where DPOY shares [and All-D pts, for that matter] are concerned, also bear in mind that Robinson, Mutombo, and Hakeem were often in direct competition with each other, probably dragging ALL of their figures down in those categories compared to Ben Wallace (we really didn’t have another great defensive C whose prime overlapped with Ben’s).

*******Used the following year-by-year DRAPM estimates for Wilt Chamberlain's career to speculate on DVOR scores:
2
1
1
0
3
0
2.75
3.25
3.25
0.25
0
0.5
3.25
3.25

********Used the following year-by-year DRAPM estimates (guidance by DBPM) for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career to speculate on DVOR scores:
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.7
1.65
3
2.25
2.7
2.9
2
1.05
1.1
0.2
0.3
1
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.2

*********All shorter seasons (and associated metrics) have been pro-rated to 82-game schedule; figures do NOT include the '19 season for active players.


All-Defensive Honors “Points” (awarded 1.5 pts for each 1st team, 1.0 pts for each 2nd)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 13.5
Hakeem Olajuwon - 11.5
David Robinson - 10.0
Ben Wallace - 8.5
Dikembe Mutombo - 7.5
Dwight Howard - 7.0
Marcus Camby - 5.0
Tyson Chandler - 3.5
Wilt Chamberlain - 3.0 (*only awarded his last 5 seasons)
Patrick Ewing - 3.0
Alonzo Mourning - 3.0
Theo Ratliff - 2.0
Bill Russell - 1.5 (*only awarded his final season)
Marc Gasol - 1.0
Shawn Bradley - 0

DPOY Shares
Ben Wallace - 3.747
Dwight Howard - 3.242
Dikembe Mutombo - 2.146
Hakeem Olajuwon - 1.969
Alonzo Mourning - 1.334
David Robinson - 1.331
Marcus Camby - 1.331
Tyson Chandler - 0.691
Marc Gasol - 0.375
Theo Ratliff - 0.225
Patrick Ewing - 0.105
Shawn Bradley - 0
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 0 (*not awarded the first 13 seasons of Kareem's career)
**not awarded during the careers of Russell and Wilt

DWS
Bill Russell - 143.9
Hakeem Olajuwon - 96.6
Wilt Chamberlain - 95.7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 94.5
Patrick Ewing - 83.4
David Robinson - 82.9
Ben Wallace - 72.3
Dikembe Mutombo - 71.2
Dwight Howard - 70.4
Marcus Camby - 56.8
Alonzo Mourning - 50.5
Tyson Chandler - 45.3
Marc Gasol - 35.3
Theo Ratliff - 32.4
Shawn Bradley - 32.2

DBPM
Ben Wallace: +5.5
Marcus Camby: +4.6
David Robinson: +4.3
Hakeem Olajuwon: +3.8
Dikembe Mutombo: +3.6
Theo Ratliff: +3.4
Shawn Bradley: +3.4
Dwight Howard: +2.8
Marc Gasol: +2.8
Patrick Ewing: +2.5
Alonzo Mourning: +2.3
Tyson Chandler: +2.2
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +2.0 (*not available for his first four seasons)
**not available for Russell or Wilt’s careers

Individual rDRTG
David Robinson: -10.0
Ben Wallace: -9.4
Hakeem Olajuwon: -8.6
Dwight Howard: -7.9
Patrick Ewing: -7.5
Dikembe Mutombo: -6.8
Marcus Camby: -6.4
Alonzo Mourning: -5.7
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: -5.2 (*not available his first four seasons)
Theo Ratliff: -4.6
Shawn Bradley: -4.0
Tyson Chandler: -3.3
Marc Gasol: -3.0
**not available for Russell or Wilt’s careers

Cumulative Career DVOR
Bill Russell - 181,196.05
Hakeem Olajuwon - 171,267.8
Dikembe Mutombo - 154.734.3
David Robinson - 151,777.8
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar -141,937.6 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Patrick Ewing - 134,807.4
*Wilt Chamberlain - 123,779.0 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Ben Wallace - 108,273.3
Alonzo Mourning - 91,008.1
Dwight Howard - 82,724.5
Shawn Bradley - 70,643.0
Theo Ratliff - 60,937.2
Marcus Camby - 60,812.6
Tyson Chandler - 56,786.6
Marc Gasol - 48,392.5

Avg DVOR per Season (full career)
Bill Russell - 13,938.2
David Robinson - 10,841.2
Hakeem Olajuwon - 9,514.9
*Wilt Chamberlain - 8,841.4 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Dikembe Mutombo - 8,596.4
Patrick Ewing - 7,929.8
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 7,096.9 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Ben Wallace - 6,767.1
Alonzo Mourning - 6,107.9
Dwight Howard - 5,908.9
Shawn Bradley - 5,886.9
Marc Gasol - 4,839.2
Theo Ratliff - 3,808.6
Marcus Camby - 3,577.2
Tyson Chandler - 3,340.4

Avg DVOR per Season (Best 5 years)
Dikembe Mutombo - 18,417.6
Bill Russell - 16,994.7
Hakeem Olajuwon - 14,663.1
*Wilt Chamberlain - 14,494.95 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
David Robinson - 13,808.6
Alonzo Mourning - 12,185.9
Patrick Ewing - 12,052.4
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 11,913.0 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Ben Wallace - 11,727.7
Shawn Bradley - 9,933.7
Dwight Howard - 9,483.5
Marc Gasol - 8,021.3
Theo Ratliff - 7,910.7
Marcus Camby - 7,741.3
Tyson Chandler - 6,380.8

Avg DVOR Per Game (Best 5 years)
Dikembe Mutombo - 229.6
Bill Russell - 219.6
Hakeem Olajuwon - 184.2
*Wilt Chamberlain - 176.8 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
David Robinson - 176.4
Alonzo Mourning - 171.4
Patrick Ewing - 160.9
Ben Wallace - 150.4
*Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 146.7 (*his score if using the estimates cited above)
Shawn Bradley - 141.5
Dwight Howard - 129.8
Marcus Camby - 113.5
Theo Ratliff - 112.1
Marc Gasol - 105.1
Tyson Chandler - 86.9

[trex_8063]

I too am going with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for this one.

He's [imo] the best combination of eye-test, accolades, box-derived figures, and longevity/consistency of impact (you can make suitable adjustments to the vague estimates utilized in the DVOR numbers above; but any reasonable estimate places him *comfortably #1 among remaining candidates in career cumulative DVOR, and still at least competitive in terms of best 5-years and career per season).

*we could, for example, assume Mark Eaton AVERAGED a +4.25 DRAPM for his entire career (probably unrealistic, but using that for illustrative purposes), and he'd still fall ~15k points behind Kareem in cumulative career DVOR (if using the estimates I'd cited for Kareem).


fwiw, I'd assumed I'd be going with either Alonzo Mourning or Dwight Howard at #10 (and I might still), but I am taking a hard look at Mark Eaton now too. I think he's got a reasonable case for the spot.

[HBK_Kliq_33]

Dwight Howard was a much better PNR guy than Kareem and pretty much killed him on glass (Kareems' RPG is only close because of pace and to an extent minutes played). Howard was the best defender in the league almost undisputedly from 2009-2011 and was probably still the best defender in the league in 2012 as well. I am not sure if Kareem Abdul Jabar was ever the best defender in the the world (he probably wasn't).

In terms of rim protection - Howard's prime is pretty comparable to Kareem's, albeit obviously his prime is much shorter.

Howard was able to anchor incredible defenses despite having no other all-defense talent, often times his starting roster would consist of guys who were closer to bad defensive players than good ones - and this was common for him in almost his entire Orlando run. I am not sure if Kareem has any feats comparable to that.

My vote goes to Dwight Howard.

Howard wasn't undisputedly better defender than KG in 2010

Dwight was definitely better than KG in 2010 and I'm not even a fan of Dwight. KG looked like a grandpa in the 2010 finals and nearly fainted, he wasn't the same player after his injury. Put prime Dwight Howard on 2010 celtics and they win the title against lakers. KG 2008 and KG 2010 are two entirely different players, KG 2008 was MVP level and KG 2010 was barely even allstar level all he did is take majority jumpshots because all his athleticism declined after the injury.

[Owly]

I too am going with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for this one.

He's [imo] the best combination of eye-test, accolades, box-derived figures, and longevity/consistency of impact (you can make suitable adjustments to the vague estimates utilized in the DVOR numbers above; but any reasonable estimate places him *comfortably #1 among remaining candidates in career cumulative DVOR, and still at least competitive in terms of best 5-years and career per season).

*we could, for example, assume Mark Eaton AVERAGED a +4.0 DRAPM for his entire career (probably unrealistic, but using that for illustrative purposes), and he'd still fall >20k points behind Kareem in cumulative career DVOR (if using the estimates I'd cited for Kareem).[


fwiw, I'd assumed I'd be going with either Alonzo Mourning or Dwight Howard at #10 (and I might still), but I am taking a hard look at Mark Eaton now too. I think he's got a reasonable case for the spot.

On the underlined (and speaking to the exercise more than the individuals - though it is perhaps especially relevant to Kareem at one end of the spectrum - this seems to me to raise the question: what is the correct starting point for measuring value.

Is it above replacement level. Is it above average (e.g. would a hypothetical 30 year, 90,000 minute career spent entirely at league average match the value - in your head - that it would be given any forumulas used). Is it above the average starter (higher than league average because non-starters get minutes). Or maybe a specific percentile equating to, say ... a weak starter. Should it be position-adjusted (whether at replacement level, league average, starter average etc)?

My inclination is that a league average player, or league average starter wouldn't and probably shouldn't [to me] get traction especially insofar as this discussion is of the elites (and because you aren't moving a team's titles chances in the vast majority of scenarios), but that is a matter of opinion. I think it bears thinking about though. Minutes matter and if you're Shawn Bradley averaging 21mpg over the 9 years in Dallas that should hurt, because you are hurting the defense by not being out there. But minutes would still be a factor, I just tilt a bit towards a higher goodness threshold.

[edited to use underline as I attempted to bold something partially already bolded it didn't work out well - and replaced word "bolded" with "underlined"]

[trex_8063]

I too am going with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for this one.

He's [imo] the best combination of eye-test, accolades, box-derived figures, and longevity/consistency of impact (you can make suitable adjustments to the vague estimates utilized in the DVOR numbers above; but any reasonable estimate places him *comfortably #1 among remaining candidates in career cumulative DVOR, and still at least competitive in terms of best 5-years and career per season).

*we could, for example, assume Mark Eaton AVERAGED a +4.0 DRAPM for his entire career (probably unrealistic, but using that for illustrative purposes), and he'd still fall >20k points behind Kareem in cumulative career DVOR (if using the estimates I'd cited for Kareem).[


fwiw, I'd assumed I'd be going with either Alonzo Mourning or Dwight Howard at #10 (and I might still), but I am taking a hard look at Mark Eaton now too. I think he's got a reasonable case for the spot.

On the underlined (and speaking to the exercise more than the individuals - though it is perhaps especially relevant to Kareem at one end of the spectrum - this seems to me to raise the question: what is the correct starting point for measuring value.

Is it above replacement level. Is it above average

This is explicitly stated in the above post showing the DVOR values (among other aggregates). The "OR" of DVOR stands for "over replacement", where "replacement" is defined as -0.75 (in previous threads I'd explained that I was going with a total (combined) RAPM value of -1.5 as my working definition of a replacement level player, and and for the purposes of DVOR assumed that half of that [i.e. -0.75] is coming on the defensive side of the ball).

EDIT: I'd once [in prior thread of this project] spoken wrt the idea that maybe the offensive:defensive split of our replacement level player would/should be different depending upon which position (PG/SG/SF/PF/C) we're talking about, but that working that out would have to be a project for a different day. For now, just using a uniform -0.75 for all positions.

(e.g. would a hypothetical 30 year, 90,000 minute career spent entirely at league average match the value - in your head - that it would be given any forumulas used). Is it above the average starter (higher than league average because non-starters get minutes). Or maybe a specific percentile equating to, say ... a weak starter. Should it be position-adjusted (whether at replacement level, league average, starter average etc)?

My inclination is that a league average player, or league average starter wouldn't and probably shouldn't [to me] get traction especially insofar as this discussion is of the elites (and because you aren't moving a team's titles chances in the vast majority of scenarios), but that is a matter of opinion. I think it bears thinking about though. Minutes matter and if you're Shawn Bradley averaging 21mpg over the 9 years in Dallas that should hurt, because you are hurting the defense by not being out there. But minutes would still be a factor, I just tilt a bit towards a higher goodness threshold.

[edited to use underline as I attempted to bold something partially already bolded it didn't work out well - and replaced word "bolded" with "underlined"]

As to would a 90,000 minute/30 year career at league avg match [in my head] the primary candidates here? No, it would not. Actually 90,000 career minutes at league avg would only have a cumulative career DVOR that's slightly below that of Shawn Bradley (listed above) anyway. But even if it were 30 years/90k minutes at ~+0.8 to 1.0 DRAPM, the answer would still be no.
I'd spoken to this in prior threads (quick summary: that it's not ENTIRELY about cumulative impact, if it's spread too thinly over too many years). I'm trying to strike an ill-defined [subjective] balance between level of peak (or best few years), average value in a given season, and cumulative value. That's precisely why I'm not ONLY citing cumulative career DVOR values; I've also cited:

*average PER SEASON (takes a look at how thinly/thickly-spread the cumulative value is over whatever number of years)
**average of BEST FIVE SEASONS (as this highlights the average value provided during a reasonable/significant-length period when they were at their best defensively)
***and PER GAME AVERAGE IN BEST FIVE SEASONS (as this won't overly penalize players [relative to slightly more durable peers] who missed a handful of games in one or more of their best defensive seasons)

In some prior threads, I'd also cited best peak season DVOR, but it was just getting excessively cluttered, so I trimmed that one out.

I'd noted in the above-quoted post that Kareem (based on any reasonable estimates) would at least be somewhat competitive [among those remaining] in PER SEASON (career) and PER SEASON/GAME (best 5 years), while also holding a comfortable lead in cumulative.

[pandrade83]

While I don't weigh longevity as heavily in a project like this, the gap between Kareem & the other candidates because of his longevity becomes kind of ridiculous & while some have had a higher peak (Howard, Zo), the longevity issue just dwarfs it.

Vote: Kareem

[Owly]

I too am going with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for this one.

He's [imo] the best combination of eye-test, accolades, box-derived figures, and longevity/consistency of impact (you can make suitable adjustments to the vague estimates utilized in the DVOR numbers above; but any reasonable estimate places him *comfortably #1 among remaining candidates in career cumulative DVOR, and still at least competitive in terms of best 5-years and career per season).

*we could, for example, assume Mark Eaton AVERAGED a +4.0 DRAPM for his entire career (probably unrealistic, but using that for illustrative purposes), and he'd still fall >20k points behind Kareem in cumulative career DVOR (if using the estimates I'd cited for Kareem).[


fwiw, I'd assumed I'd be going with either Alonzo Mourning or Dwight Howard at #10 (and I might still), but I am taking a hard look at Mark Eaton now too. I think he's got a reasonable case for the spot.

On the underlined (and speaking to the exercise more than the individuals - though it is perhaps especially relevant to Kareem at one end of the spectrum - this seems to me to raise the question: what is the correct starting point for measuring value.

Is it above replacement level. Is it above average

This is explicitly stated in the above post showing the DVOR values (among other aggregates). The "OR" of DVOR stands for "over replacement", where "replacement" is defined as -0.75 (in previous threads I'd explained that I was going with a total (combined) RAPM value of -1.5 as my working definition of a replacement level player, and and for the purposes of DVOR assumed that half of that [i.e. -0.75] is coming on the defensive side of the ball).

EDIT: I'd once [in prior thread of this project] spoken wrt the idea that maybe the offensive:defensive split of our replacement level player would/should be different depending upon which position (PG/SG/SF/PF/C) we're talking about, but that working that out would have to be a project for a different day. For now, just using a uniform -0.75 for all positions.

(e.g. would a hypothetical 30 year, 90,000 minute career spent entirely at league average match the value - in your head - that it would be given any forumulas used). Is it above the average starter (higher than league average because non-starters get minutes). Or maybe a specific percentile equating to, say ... a weak starter. Should it be position-adjusted (whether at replacement level, league average, starter average etc)?

My inclination is that a league average player, or league average starter wouldn't and probably shouldn't [to me] get traction especially insofar as this discussion is of the elites (and because you aren't moving a team's titles chances in the vast majority of scenarios), but that is a matter of opinion. I think it bears thinking about though. Minutes matter and if you're Shawn Bradley averaging 21mpg over the 9 years in Dallas that should hurt, because you are hurting the defense by not being out there. But minutes would still be a factor, I just tilt a bit towards a higher goodness threshold.

[edited to use underline as I attempted to bold something partially already bolded it didn't work out well - and replaced word "bolded" with "underlined"]

As to would a 90,000 minute/30 year career at league avg match [in my head] the primary candidates here? No, it would not. Actually 90,000 career minutes at league avg would only have a cumulative career DVOR that's slightly below that of Shawn Bradley (listed above) anyway. But even if it were 30 years/90k minutes at ~+0.8 to 1.0 DRAPM, the answer would still be no.
I'd spoken to this in prior threads (quick summary: that it's not ENTIRELY about cumulative impact, if it's spread too thinly over too many years). I'm trying to strike an ill-defined [subjective] balance between level of peak (or best few years), average value in a given season, and cumulative value. That's precisely why I'm not ONLY citing cumulative career DVOR values; I've also cited:

*average PER SEASON (takes a look at how thinly/thickly-spread the cumulative value is over whatever number of years)
**average of BEST FIVE SEASONS (as this highlights the average value provided during a reasonable/significant-length period when they were at their best defensively)
***and PER GAME AVERAGE IN BEST FIVE SEASONS (as this won't overly penalize players [relative to slightly more durable peers] who missed a handful of games in one or more of their best defensive seasons)

In some prior threads, I'd also cited best peak season DVOR, but it was just getting excessively cluttered, so I trimmed that one out.

I'd noted in the above-quoted post that Kareem (based on any reasonable estimates) would at least be somewhat competitive [among those remaining] in PER SEASON (career) and PER SEASON/GAME (best 5 years), while also holding a comfortable lead in cumulative.

Perhaps this wasn't clear so I'll restate. The question wasn't about whether your -RP (Replacement Player) metric does have a replacement level value. It is about whether replacement level is the "best" or most appropriate baseline (you seem to be addressing this later, but initially about the metric so hopefully this clarifies - if indeed there was confusion).

Nor is this about your broader case for Kareem the array of stats you use. But the idea was mooted that Eaton as a consistent "+4" defender wouldn't top Jabbar with Jabbar posting [hypothetical] numbers mostly above average but likely below positional starter average from 83-89.

Interesting output on the hypothetical longevity monster - disregarding for the moment that you if there were any "bug i n the system, you've got it covered by the various other tools - what does that guy bordering on Bradley make you think (should they be in that vicinity and what would be the outcome at +1 - a guy, if I interpreted right, you still wouldn't consider)? And having thought on that, more broadly and for the other tools in that family is "replacement level" the right level?

(Is it, for instance a plausible estimate for what it's intended to be as a replacement level [is that the level of a back-up center that comes in for such a guy]? At what numerical point does should a player start adding value with any minutes that moves them toward this conversation?)

I'm not saying it isn't, and certainly not confident in any answers, just giving the questions that came to my head.

[penbeast0]

With longevity, I tend to look at it as less but not ignore it. I have sort of an 8 season prime in my mind and don't tend to think post or pre prime seasons move the needle much. Guys like Sidney Moncrief with a 5 season peak get downgraded a bit, guys like Walton with a 1 season prime I can't see as being in serious competition for ATG or ATG defender. Similarly, if a guy had a prime where he was elite for 12+ years like Kareem, that has to be worth more than a mere 4-5 year run like Rudy Gobert even if you could argue that Rudy Gobert played at or even slightly above the level of peak Kareem . . . they are close enough to make an argument so 12 years of that level almost certainly beats 8 years of it. On the other hand, it becomes a different question when you have a higher defensive peak (say, Ben Wallace) that lasts 5 or 6 years but it more impactful. That's where the questions come in. If I had Rudy's peak/prime as superior to Wallace's, then he might be my vote here but it's a tricky balancing act.

[SkyHookFTW]

I'm giving my vote to Kareem here. His longevity and impact on the court as shown by both simple box score metrics (which are never good by themself), Trex's work, and my eye test, and his accolades tell me that I should vote for him.

The one caveat I have with Kareem is that a guy his size should not have been pushed around/beat up in the post as much as he was by other physical players. I think it's telling that Moses usually took him to the woodshed. Kareem could out finesse the other centers of his day and really make them look pedestrian, but against players like Thurmond, Gilmore, Moses, and Old Wilt he had issues in the post. That aside (no one had an easy day against those guys anyway) Kareem gets my vote for #9.