Giannis is +9.7 in RS but only +0.1 in PS

Jim Naismith · Post #1 » by **Jim Naismith** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:13 pm

See https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01/on-off/2019

Has Giannis's supporting cast become that good?

Compare with Kawhi who is +5.5 in RS and +25.6 in PS.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leonaka01/on-off/2019

RCM88x · Post #2 » by **RCM88x** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:17 pm

If they're able to keep this up it's definitely a 2014 Spurs type of team. Giannis is obviously great but the team is still very good outside of him.

Wooderson · Post #3 » by **Wooderson** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:24 pm

Jim Naismith wrote:See https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01/on-off/2019

Has Giannis's supporting cast become that good?

Compare with Kawhi who is +5.5 in RS and +25.6 in PS.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leonaka01/on-off/2019

NBA.com stats which uses play by play data has Giannis with the following numbers:

+18.1 on, +12.0 off for a +6.1 on/off diff

BBref estimates possessions I believe so less accurate and with a small sample it can make a big difference.

colts18 · Post #4 » by **colts18** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:28 pm

It means nothing. On/off in a small sample size has very little correlation to actual player value.

Jim Naismith · Post #5 » by **Jim Naismith** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:50 pm

Wooderson wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:See https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01/on-off/2019

Has Giannis's supporting cast become that good?

Compare with Kawhi who is +5.5 in RS and +25.6 in PS.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leonaka01/on-off/2019

NBA.com stats which uses play by play data has Giannis with the following numbers:

+18.1 on, +12.0 off for a +6.1 on/off diff

BBref estimates possessions I believe so less accurate and with a small sample it can make a big difference.

Link?

Bergmaniac · Post #6 » by **Bergmaniac** » Sat May 18, 2019 5:56 pm

Jim Naismith wrote:
Wooderson wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:See https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01/on-off/2019

Has Giannis's supporting cast become that good?

Compare with Kawhi who is +5.5 in RS and +25.6 in PS.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leonaka01/on-off/2019

NBA.com stats which uses play by play data has Giannis with the following numbers:

+18.1 on, +12.0 off for a +6.1 on/off diff

BBref estimates possessions I believe so less accurate and with a small sample it can make a big difference.

Link?

https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612749/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

Wooderson · Post #7 » by **Wooderson** » Sat May 18, 2019 6:14 pm

Jim Naismith wrote:Link?

Bergmaniac wrote:https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612749/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

NBA.com switched over to true possession data before the season started and I think BBRef still does as estimate.

https://stats.nba.com/articles/nba-com-stats-switches-to-true-possessions-what-it-means-and-why-its-important/

Winsome Gerbil · Post #8 » by **Winsome Gerbil** » Sat May 18, 2019 6:52 pm

this is great news for Milwaukee as it means that if Giannis gets hurt they'll still have just as good a chance to win the title!

Winsome Gerbil · Post #9 » by **Winsome Gerbil** » Sat May 18, 2019 7:18 pm

Wooderson wrote:
Jim Naismith wrote:Link?

Bergmaniac wrote:https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612749/onoffcourt-advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

NBA.com switched over to true possession data before the season started and I think BBRef still does as estimate.

https://stats.nba.com/articles/nba-com-stats-switches-to-true-possessions-what-it-means-and-why-its-important/

I wasn't aware that had happened, but after seeing the big change (albeit small sample size) in Giannis's playoff +/- with the different methodologies, I went through NBA.com's +/- stats and found that true possessions actually exonerated a number of the guys around the league who notoriously had aberrant negative +/- numbers (regular season):

Klay becomes +4.5 (bbr -0.5) = +5.0 change
Boogie becomes +2.2 (bbr -2.7) = +4.9 change
Simmons becomes +1.5 (bbr -2.4) = +3.9 change
Aldridge becomes +1.1 (bbr -1.9) = +3.0 change
DeRozan becomes +0.1 (bbr -5.0) = +5.1 change

but it did not fully resuscitate:
Hield remains +0.0 (bbr -0.8)
Doncic remains -1.6 (bbr -3.9)
Booker remains -5.2

and also dinged guys like Marvin Bagley, going from a +1.2 to a -1.7

AussieBuck · Post #10 » by **AussieBuck** » Sun May 19, 2019 2:40 am

When Giannis rests our bigs are starter quality against reserves given teams always have to use their 2 best guys against Giannis. That and we play 5 out with just Bledsoe not being a shooter. He gets to play as Giannis against second units and Khris kills second teams. We've seen these guys struggle without Giannis against starting units but when Giannis sits we play a bunch of starters together and it just overwhelms benches. That and nobody plays big minutes so we can go at 102-3 pace for a full 48.

Jaivl · Post #11 » by **Jaivl** » Sun May 19, 2019 10:26 am

Knew who OP was just by the title.

SweetTouch · Post #12 » by **SweetTouch** » Sun May 19, 2019 6:46 pm

Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

clyde21 · Post #13 » by **clyde21** » Sun May 19, 2019 6:51 pm

SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

what's the standard for 'standing out'?

Bergmaniac · Post #14 » by **Bergmaniac** » Sun May 19, 2019 7:02 pm

clyde21 wrote:
SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

what's the standard for 'standing out'?

Pretty high, apparently, since 39 points on 73% TS% and 16 rebounds in a crucial Game 3 away win does not reach it.

rate_ · Post #15 » by **rate_** » Sun May 19, 2019 8:27 pm

SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

1 of only 5 players in NBA playoffs history to post a 30+ PER, .300 WS/48+, and 10+ BPM (300 MP minimum)

Madhouse · Post #16 » by **Madhouse** » Sun May 19, 2019 8:49 pm

SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

He has averaged 28/12/5/2 blk since then.

Not sure if serious.

JustCame · Post #17 » by **JustCame** » Sun May 19, 2019 10:52 pm

I personally think Giannis is very overrated. He runs into guys and gets foul calls all game. He has a very unaesthetic game. Maybe it's my bias that his game is really ugly, but I feel like I'm in a matrix when I watch him. I know his length and athleticism are probably the reasons why he can score at will in the paint, but you'd think teams could adjust and pack the paint more? Or throw an athletic 7 footer on him and let him shoot? Kind of how teams are playing Siakam.

JustCame · Post #18 » by **JustCame** » Sun May 19, 2019 10:53 pm

Madhouse wrote:
SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

He has averaged 28/12/5/2 blk since then.

Not sure if serious.

It seems to me like half of those points are at the line. Maybe that's why he feels Giannis hasn't stood out?

I can't tell you how many times I've seen Giannis jump into the paint, elbow somebody and get a shooting foul.

Winsome Gerbil · Post #19 » by **Winsome Gerbil** » Sun May 19, 2019 10:55 pm

Madhouse wrote:
SweetTouch wrote:Since the first round he hasn’t stood out in any game

He has averaged 28/12/5/2 blk since then.

Not sure if serious.

yet they are just as good without him. I call #Emptystats !

Baddy Chuck · Post #20 » by **Baddy Chuck** » Sun May 19, 2019 11:13 pm