Wilt's Case for GOAT

[feyki]

If I would evaluate his LA days as close to his 60/68, then I'd say he's the GOAT with LBJ and KAJ. But he declined too much and was just a top 5 player in that period.

[Max123]

I don't think he has one TBH. His statistical case falls apart in the post season, where those massive scoring numbers take huge dips.

Ever study why he had huge statistical dips? It's because he faced the toughest playoff defenses in NBA history among any center.

This from our very own "70's Fan". Mad props to his amazing/arduous work!

I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:

Wilt Chamberlain (1960-68):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (23.75% of playoffs games): 47.7 mpg, 28.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 31.2 ppg on 50.9% FG, 56.8% FT, 53.4% TS (+5.30 rTS%)

Bill Russell (1959-66):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games):--

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-80):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games): --

SNIP

Vs. -4.0 or better rDRtg defenses ("Elite Defenses"):

Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

Were all those all time defenses Wilt faced Russell’s Celtics?


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[70sFan]

I don't think he has one TBH. His statistical case falls apart in the post season, where those massive scoring numbers take huge dips.

Ever study why he had huge statistical dips? It's because he faced the toughest playoff defenses in NBA history among any center.

This from our very own "70's Fan". Mad props to his amazing/arduous work!

I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:

Wilt Chamberlain (1960-68):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (23.75% of playoffs games): 47.7 mpg, 28.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 31.2 ppg on 50.9% FG, 56.8% FT, 53.4% TS (+5.30 rTS%)

Bill Russell (1959-66):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games):--

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-80):
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games): --

SNIP

Vs. -4.0 or better rDRtg defenses ("Elite Defenses"):

Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

Were all those all time defenses Wilt faced Russell’s Celtics?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

"All-time" in 1960-68 period - yes. If you include more seasons, then Wilt faced other ATG defenses. Also, 1967 Warriors were close to -4.0 level and thet had the best man defender in histoty at center poistion.

[ty 4191]

"All-time" in 1960-68 period - yes. If you include more seasons, then Wilt faced other ATG defenses. Also, 1967 Warriors were close to -4.0 level and thet had the best man defender in histoty at center poistion.

Hi Brother,
Have you ever run/can you run career numbers for Wilt, Russell, and Kareem vs. Elite and All Time Great defenses in the playoffs? And post it, like you did for peaks?

It would be tremendously appreciated, and- I think- extremely revealing. It would certainly be a game changer with rankings, to me, at least.

Thanks!!!!!!

[ty 4191]

If I would evaluate his LA days as close to his 60/68, then I'd say he's the GOAT with LBJ and KAJ. But he declined too much and was just a top 5 player in that period.

Regular Season:

Win Shares, 1971-1973:
KAJ: 69.5
Wilt: 46.6
Frazier: 42.6
Halicek: 37.0
West: 36.7

PER (Min 10000 MP)
KAJ: 29.1
Halicek: 19.9
Wilt: 19.3
Hayes: 18.8
Thurmond: 18.1

Playoffs (1971-1973):

Win Shares:
Frazier: 8.8
Wilt: 6.5
KAJ: 5.3
Goodrich: 4.9
Robertson: 4.6

PER (Min 1500 MP, consider Wilt played 2000 MP in his old age):
Frazier: 20.4
Goodrich: 18.4
Wilt: 17.7
Monroe: 16.2
DeBusschere: 15.7

And, this is all post reconstructive knee surgery, wherein Wilt lost 2 steps, and about 8 inches on his vertical compared to his prime.

"Declined too much"?

[ty 4191]

If I would evaluate his LA days as close to his 60/68, then I'd say he's the GOAT with LBJ and KAJ. But he declined too much and was just a top 5 player in that period.

Kareem, ages 34-36:

Regular Season:
Win Shares:
9th (WIlt was second). Kareem was 25% behind Moses Malone, who was #1 with 40.1 WS.

PER:
7th.

Playoffs:
Win Shares:
3rd

PER
2nd

Kareem didn't have his achilles torn and ripped cartilage in his knee at age 33, requiring major reconstructive surgery. He also certainly wasn't asked to stop shooting/scoring (arguably his greatest asset) mid career, as Wilt was.

Still, all that said, Wilt at the same ages (34-36) was at least as great as Kareem. In a league that was much less decimated by expansion. 17 teams (Wilt) vs. 23 (Kareem).

[Owly]

Still, all that said, Wilt at the same ages (34-36) was at least as great as Kareem. In a league that was much less decimated by expansion. 17 teams (Wilt) vs. 23 (Kareem).

Hmm not sure about this ... in roughly ascending order of importance (1 very little, 3 quite a bit - especially in terms of transparency)

1) linguistically degrees of decimated ... not getting into its original meaning ... I think decimated is really bad, I don't think you get much in the way of degrees of it (I don't think there's "a bit decimated"). I think diluted would be the word.

2) There's a time gap meaning a change in the talent pool (and fwiw the number of pro basketball teams at Kareem's point is on a steady or slightly downward trajectory on the decade or so, versus a spike for the Wilt span, in part because ...).

3) There is another major league in basketball active in Wilt's time. What one thinks of it in that frame can vary (across people and even within those years). But '71 and '72 ABA supports 11 teams, then in '73 10.

[70sFan]

"All-time" in 1960-68 period - yes. If you include more seasons, then Wilt faced other ATG defenses. Also, 1967 Warriors were close to -4.0 level and thet had the best man defender in histoty at center poistion.

Hi Brother,
Have you ever run/can you run career numbers for Wilt, Russell, and Kareem vs. Elite and All Time Great defenses in the playoffs? And post it, like you did for peaks?

It would be tremendously appreciated, and- I think- extremely revealing. It would certainly be a game changer with rankings, to me, at least.

Thanks!!!!!!

I didn't do that for their careers, but I think that looking at the prime gives us a better picture of how well the player's impact scaled against top competition. I can calculate it for you, but I have little free time recently.

[ty 4191]

I didn't do that for their careers, but I think that looking at the prime gives us a better picture of how well the player's impact scaled against top competition. I can calculate it for you, but I have little free time recently.

Whenever you have time, even just for those three, would be truly revealing.

Thank you!!

[feyki]

If I would evaluate his LA days as close to his 60/68, then I'd say he's the GOAT with LBJ and KAJ. But he declined too much and was just a top 5 player in that period.

Regular Season:

Win Shares, 1971-1973:
KAJ: 69.5
Wilt: 46.6
Frazier: 42.6
Halicek: 37.0
West: 36.7

PER (Min 10000 MP)
KAJ: 29.1
Halicek: 19.9
Wilt: 19.3
Hayes: 18.8
Thurmond: 18.1

Playoffs (1971-1973):

Win Shares:
Frazier: 8.8
Wilt: 6.5
KAJ: 5.3
Goodrich: 4.9
Robertson: 4.6

PER (Min 1500 MP, consider Wilt played 2000 MP in his old age):
Frazier: 20.4
Goodrich: 18.4
Wilt: 17.7
Monroe: 16.2
DeBusschere: 15.7

And, this is all post reconstructive knee surgery, wherein Wilt lost 2 steps, and about 8 inches on his vertical compared to his prime.

"Declined too much"?

Don't know how do you evaluate Wilt's prime, but dropping to top 5 league level from top 5 GOAT level is, yes, declining too much. Evidences you showed, says he was not comparable to KAJ but was to top 5 level. 60/68 Wilt was comparable to Prime KAJ.

[ty 4191]

Wilt Chamberlain had some crazy competition in the playoffs. And this is how he did vs them:

Competition:

Chamberlain played in 29 post-season series in his career, and in the process, he faced a HOF starting center in 19 of them (Russell in eight; Thurmond in three; Reed in two; Kareem in two; Bellamy, in two; Lucas in one; and borderline HOFer, Wayne Embry in one.)

He also faced a multiple-all-star center in five more (Kerr in three, and Beaty in two.) So, that means that Chamberlain was playing against either a very good, or even great center, 24 of those 29 series.

How he did vs them:

He was only statistically outplayed by a prime Kareem in the 71-72 WCF's, BUT, by virtually EVERY account of those that witnessed that series, he outplayed Abdul-Jabbar. The two also battled in the 70-71 WCF's, and here again, a PRIME Kareem, and a 34 year old Wilt, only a year removed from major knee surgery, were a statistical wash. BTW, Chamberlain held Kareem to FG%'s of .481 and .457 in those two series, in seasons in which Kareem shot .577 and .574. And he outrebounded Kareem in both, as well.

Chamberlain and Russell went at it EIGHT times in the post-season, and we know that Wilt outscored and outrebounded Russell in ALL of them, and some by HUGE margins. He also outshot Russell, .508 to .417 in those 49 playoff games.

There was an interesting discussion a while back on the 61-62 WCF's, in which Wilt outscored Russell by a 34-22 ppg margin, and outrebounded him by a 26-25 rpg margin. At the time we knew that Wilt was held to .468 shooting, but we didn't know Russell's FG% in that series. However, ThaRegul8r posted that Russell shot .500 in the Finals that post-season, and given that Russell shot .458 overall in that post-season, and half of his 14 games were against Wilt, it means that he probably shot less than .420 against Chamberlain that series.

In the '60 ECF's, Wilt outscored Russell, per game, 30.5 ppg to 20.7 ppg. He outrebounded Russell, 28 rpg to 27 rpg. He outshot Russell .500 vs. .446. BTW, Wilt did have a 50 point game, on 22-42 shooting, with 35 rebounds against Russell in that series. And overall, in his entire post-season, Chamberlain shot .496 (in a league that shot .410.)

We also KNOW that Chamberlain posted a 29-27 on .517 (again, thanks to ThaRegul8r for that stat) against Russell in the '64 Finals. In that series, Russell averaged 11 ppg and 25 rpg. Wilt outshot Russell .517 to .386!!!

And we also KNOW that Wilt just abused Russell in the '67 ECF's, when he outscored him, per game, 21.6 ppg to 10.2 ppg; outpassed Russell, per game, 10.0 apg to 6.0 apg; outrebounded Russell by a staggering mark of 32.0 rpg to 23.0 rpg; and outshot him from the floor in that series, .556 to .358.

In the seven game series of the 64-65 playoffs, Chamberlain averaged 30 ppg and 31 rpg, to Russell's 16-26. Wilt shot .555 from the field and Russell .447.

In the 67-68 ECF's, Wilt averaged a 22-23, while Russell was at 15-22. Wilt outshot Russell .487 to .440.

Chamberlain and Thurmond went at it in three post-seasons, and Wilt pounded Nate on the glass in all three, and outshot him by margins of .500-.392; .550 to .398; and an eye-popping .560 to .343 margin.

Wilt and Bellamy battled in two playoff series. In 67-68, Wilt averaged 25.5 ppg, 24.1 rpg, and 6.3 apg, while holding Bellamy to 20 ppg, 16 rpg, and on a .421 FG% (in a season in which he shot .541 overall.) In the 1970 WCF,

Chamberlain and Reed went at, as opposing centers in two Finals, (and they also battled in the 67-68 playoffs...again, in a series in which Wilt led both teams in scoring, rebounding, and assists.) Reed won the FMVP in BOTH of those Finals, but it would be a stretch to say that he outplayed Chamberlain in either. In the '70 Finals, Reed and Wilt battled to a draw in the first four games, but then Reed injured his leg in game five (and with his team down by 10 points at the time), and he only played in one quarter of that game, then missed all of game six, and only played in half of game seven.

Using total stats, Wilt outscored Reed in that series, 23.2 ppg to 23.0 ppg; outrebounded Reed in that series, 24.1 rpg to 10.5 rpg; and outshot him, .625 to .484. Granted, he missed chunks of that series, and it hurt his overall numbers, but even then, he certainly didn't outplay Chamberlain, who, himself, was nowhere 100%, and was playing only four months after major knee surgery.

In Wilt's LAST Finals, and again, against Reed, Willis won the FMVP. However, while Reed outscored Wilt, per game, 16.4 ppg to 11.6 ppg...Wilt pounded Reed on the glass, 18.6 rpg to 9.2 rpg, and outshot Reed by a .524 to .493 margin.

In the 71-72 Finals, Wilt was outscored, per game, by Jerry Lucas, 20.8 ppg to 19.4 ppg, while Chamberlain outrebounded him, per game, 23.2 rpg to 9.8 rpg, and outshot Lucas, .600 to .500. BTW, take away Lucas' first game in that series, when he was hitting shots from the Santa Monica Freeway, and he was at 19.5 ppg and on .465 shooting. Wilt easily won the FMVP that year.

In the 64-65 playoffs against Embry, Wilt outscored Embry, per game, 28 ppg to 12.8 ppg, and outrebounded Wayne, 19.5 rpg to 6.3 rpg. He outshot him .488 to .438 in that series.

Chamberlain faced Kerr in three straight post-seasons, and he posted series of 38.6 ppg, 37.0 ppg, and 37.0 ppg against him. In the two known series, Kerr averaged 13.7 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and .294 against Wilt in the '60 playoffs, and 17.6 ppg, 16.0 rpg, and shot .341 againt him in the '62 playoffs. I don't have Kerr's exact numbers against Wilt in the '61 playoffs, but overall he averaged 9.3 ppg, 12.4 rpg, and shot .341 (three games against Wilt, and five against Russell.) Incidentally, Wilt hung a 56 point, 35 rebound game on Kerr in game five of a best-of-five series, in the '62 playoffs. And he also had a 53 point game against him in the '60 playoffs.

In the '64 WCF's, Wilt outscored Beaty, per game, 38.6 ppg to 14.3 ppg; outrebounded him, per game, 23.0 rpg to 9.5 rpg; and outshot him, .559 to .521. He also pounded Beaty with a 50 point game in that series, and on a staggering 22-32 shooting percentage.

In the '67 playoffs against Dierking, Wilt averaged 28 ppg, 26.5 rpg, 11.0 apg, and on .612 shooting. Meanwhile, Dierking averaged 17.5 ppg, 13.0 rpg, 3.5 apg, and shot .427 against Chamberlain.

In the '69 playoffs, and against the Hawks, Wilt averaged 19.7 ppg and I believe around 23 rpg. I don't know Beaty's exact numbers, but overall, in his 11 playoff games, five of which were against Wilt, he averaged 22.5 ppg, 12.9 rpg, and on .432 shooting.

In the '70 playoffs against the Suns, Wilt averaged 23.7 ppg, but I don't have the rest of his numbers. Meanwhile, the Suns starting center, Jim Fox, averaged 11.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and shot .362 against Chamberlain.

Wilt faced the Bulls three straight seasons, from '71 thru '73, and Chicago used two centers, Clifford Ray and Tom Boerwinkle in those series. I won't look up their numbers, but I do know that Chamberlain just crushed them on the glass. In any case, he thoroughly outplayed each of them.

IMHO, Wilt's poorest series came against Russell in the '69 Finals. Of course, Wilt was shackled by his coach in that series, too. In any case, Wilt only averaged 11 ppg to Russell's 9 ppg. He also outrebounded Russell in that series, He outshot Russell .500 to .397 . In game seven, Wilt outscored Russell, 18-6, outshot Russell, 7-8 to 2-7, and outrebounded Russell, 27-21.

Here again, the main point of this, was to illustrate how Chamberlain fared against his opposing centers in his 29 post-season series. Statistically, he was seldom outplayed, although a prime Kareem badly outscored him in the '72 WCF's (by a 202-67 margin.) He also outshot Wilt, .457 to .452, but in Wilt's defense, Chamberlain only missed 20 shots, while Kareem missed 107.

In their '71 WCF's, a prime Kareem outscored Wilt, per game, 25-22, while an old Wilt outrebounded Kareem, per game, 19-17, and outshot Kareem, .489 to .481.

However, most all observers claimed that Wilt outplayed Kareem in the '72 WCF's, and at worst battled him to a draw in the '71 WCF's. Interesting too, that as he came out late in the 4th quarter of the final game of the '71 WCF's, Chamberlain received a standing ovation,...and the game was played in MILWAUKEE.

The Russell supporters will argue that, while Russell was outscored, outrebounded, and probably outshot in every series against Wilt, his team beat Chamberlain's, 7-1 in those eight series. Russell certainly held Wilt below his regular season scoring and shooting numbers, too.

Still, Wilt's TEAMS, lost FOUR game seven's against Russell's teams, and by a total margin of nine points (margins of 2, 1, 4, and 2 points.) A few more points, here-or-there, and Wilt could have actually had a 5-3 edge against Russell.

And I have posted this before, but for those that did not read them...

In Wilt's first six post-seasons (in his first seven years in the league), his teammates collectively shot .382, .380, .354, .352, .352, and even .332. Then, in game seven of the '68 ECF's, his teammates didn't pass him the ball in the second half, and they collectively shot 33% for the entire game. And, they were without HOFer Cunningham in that entire series, and both Luke Jackson and Wali Jones sustained injuries in game five (when Philly was leading that series, 3-1.) Oh, and BTW, Wilt was nursing an assortment of injuries in that series, and was noticeably limping from game three thru that game seven.

In game seven of the '69 Finals, Wilt was on the bench in the last five minutes of that two point loss. And, while he shot .875 from the field in that game, his teammates collectively shot .360.

In game seven of the '70 Finals, and in the first half, Wilt scored 11 points, on 5-10 shooting, with 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, in that half, his teammates collectively shot .333. That game was over at halftime, as the Knicks led 69-42.

In the '71 WCF's, Wilt, at age 34, and only a year removed from major knee surgery, battled a prime Kareem to a statistical draw. However, with BOTH West and Baylor missing the entire playoffs, his team was horribly outmatched, and they were blown out 4-1 by the 66-16 Bucks.

And in Wilt's LAST season, and in the Finals, he shot .524 in that five game series (all four losses decided in the last minute), while his teammates collectively shot .416 in that series.

[countryboy667]

Thanks for that excellent analysis Ty4191. I had the privilege of seeing Wilt play several times, and from what I saw he was easily the GOAT, and that by a fair margin. It's hard for me to understand the motives of so many people here who belittle him and his accomplishments--to the ridiculous extent that one poster here actually called him " a plodder" He was an athletic freak that could have dominated any number of sports. The only criticism of him I've ever seen that makes sense to me is that he sometimes seemed a bit lackadaisical--but then things were so easy for him that he could go on cruise control and still be better than anyone else. I think Bill Russell, whose TEAMS got the best of Wilt in the majority of cases once said something to the effect that the one thing you didn't want to do to Wilt was piss him off, be cause if you did--WATCH OUT!!!

I've read Wilt's books and maybe 3-4 biographies of him by others. And the thing about him that impresses me the most isn't his incredible athleticism, but his quick intelligence and good humor. And with the ladies, he reportedly was always a gentleman. He was a pioneer in promoting women's sports, and showed nothing but the utmost respect for the women in his family and circle of friends. He had an ego, but he was also always quick to give credit when others did well, even if it was against him.

Those things, along with his incredible athletic abilities, are things to admire, not to disparage. As one of his peers said, Wilt was a very good human being. In my opinion, if you actually SAW Wilt, you had the pleasure and privilege of seeing the best that ever was, maybe the best there ever will be.

And you know something? I wasn't a Wilt fan at first for a long time. He made a habit of coming in and beating the hell out of my beloved Cincinnati Royals with Oscar and the collegiate hero of my youth, Jerry Lucas. But as I got older, the more I saw of him, the more I came to appreciate just how special he was. I learned, at last, to cheer for Goliath.

[migya]

Realistically it is almost impossible that Chamberlain isn't the GOAT, he was so far ahead of everyone else and from footage he looks better than most ever.