Peaks project update: #6

LA Bird · Post #1 » by **LA Bird** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:45 am

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77

Hopefully I didn't jump the gun here but it's been several days since lebron3-14-3 was last active and by the rules, 77 Kareem had the most points in round 5 as at the end of the 60 hour deadline. Voting has been extremely close in several rounds now so remember to get your votes in early for it to count. As requested, cecilthesheep has been added in the voter list.

Time limit to get your vote in: 60 hours. Please submit your votes by 10:45 am July 19 Eastern Time

The rules

Reasoning/statistical support is required for votes to be counted. A simple list of names will not be counted.
Window time for votings: 48 hours/thread.

THE VOTING SYSTEM:

Everyone gives their 1st-ballot choice, 2nd-ballot choice, and 3rd-ballot choice. I'll award 4,5 pts for a 1st ballot, 3 for a 2nd ballot, and 2 for a 3rd. Highest point-total wins the spot (24-hour run-off will then only be done in the unlikely event of a tie).

Players don't get credit for all the votes they receive in a round, we just count the votes (and the points) for the designated year. At the end of the 48 hours (not sure about that) the season that has most points wins. Other voted seasons of the winning player will get a mention.

So, you can use your 3 choices to vote for more than 1 season of the same player (if you think that the best 3 seasons among the players left belong all to the same player, nothing is stopping you from using all you 3 choices on that player), but you can't continue voting for other seasons of that player once he wins and gets his spot. The final list will be 1 season per player, with a mention of the other seasons of the winning player who received votes.

Thank you for your partecipation!

Spoiler:

Samurai · Post #2 » by **Samurai** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:13 am

1. 1993 Hakeem Olajuwon
2. 1965 Bill Russell
3. 1976 Julius Erving

I understand that some will feel this is too early for Dr. J considering that this was an ABA season. I acknowledge the questions about level of competition but by the time of the merger in 77, both leagues were far closer in terms of talent than in the early years of the junior league. But Erving's stats were just so impressive that year that I would take note even if he were going against high school students....and the ABA was far above that level. And full disclosure, I also acknowledge that some may question this because I did not see Erving play that year other than in video clips; unfortunately ABA games were not televised much.

euroleague · Post #3 » by **euroleague** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:43 am

We're getting into the fun part of this. The obvious names are off (mostly, Duncan may get this one), and now we can have some discussion.

1. Larry Bird 1986 - His playmaking and offensive versatility made him an outside threat like no big the league has seen before or since then. He could dominate in the post, was a legitimate 6'10 (read 7' in today's league), and basically played point for his team. The Celtics were dominating so hard, other teams marked them down on their calendar and came at them with the goal of NOT LOSING BY 20. They were running rampant over the entire league, similar to what they did in 85 but they added Walton off the bench. In 85, if Bird hadn't broken his hand right before the Finals, it's quite likely the Celtics would've 3-peated. I won't list a lot of stats, as much of his impact was playmaking which is hard to rate without RAPM - but he did dominate in WOWY.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon 1994 - The perfect trifecta: MVP, FMVP, DPOY. A 2 way player who basically dragged his team to a championship. 1993 may have been his best year, but I have to put 94 as his greatest moment as he finally delivered on the championship.

3. Steph Curry 2016 - This may be early for some, because of his playoffs - but, if it weren't for his injury the Warriors would have been expected to go 16-0. Lebron was staying up nights watching Curry's games, and holding his head in frustration. Nobody knew what to do, or what the future held - Curry made most people look at the game in an entirely new way. He changed the face of the game, by forcing big men to defend on the perimeter so they can switch - a novel defensive idea by Poppovich. Before that, he was just unstoppable - nobody could contain him 1v1. The Warriors were destroying teams before the 4th quarter even started, and he was resting - if Curry had wanted to go for stats, he probably could've averaged 38 a game without much more difficulty.

Colbinii · Post #4 » by **Colbinii** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:47 am

euroleague wrote: Lebron was staying up nights watching Curry's games, and holding his head in frustration.

Source?

Joey Wheeler · Post #5 » by **Joey Wheeler** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:14 am

Larry Bird 1986
Magic Johnson 1987
Larry Bird 1987

All votes already explained in prior threads, have been voting for Bird since #1.

euroleague · Post #6 » by **euroleague** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:15 am

Colbinii wrote:
euroleague wrote: Lebron was staying up nights watching Curry's games, and holding his head in frustration.

Source?

His constant disrespect of Curry was kind of a well known thing back then. He would often throw shade, and tweet whenever Curry was playing about other things - making some weird statement about not paying attention to Curry.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theundefeated.com/features/lebron-james-stephen-curry-nba-finals/amp/

In retrospect, it doesn’t look as bad because Curry got injured and the Warriors got screwed in the playoffs. But, at the time, was pretty clear Curry was living rent free

Gregoire · Post #7 » by **Gregoire** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:40 am

1. 1993 Hakeem Olajuwon
2. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon
3. 2003 Tim Duncan

Jaivl · Post #8 » by **Jaivl** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:08 am

1. 2003 Tim Duncan
About as good as the #2 here (having less "small things" on O, but also more proven and resilient scoring). Good defensive cast, but the ability to crack a #7 offense nearly out of thin air (lacking on offense) is ultra rare for a player as good on defense as Duncan was. As we all know, he exploded on the post-season, confirming the scoring advantage and leading him past...

2. 2004 Kevin Garnett
Heeeere we go again. With a worse cast than his competition (we've already discussed this ad nauseam, feel free to disagree), led the 2nd best team by SRS and only fell (in a close series) on the WCF when his AS-level #2 got injured. That 24.9 (+3 rTS%) / 14.3 / 5.1 / 1.5 / 2.3 statline per 75 is absurd, and you've got to note that it is the best year, period, by Engelmann's PI RAPM dataset, peaking at +10 (about 1 point better than 03 Duncan, 1.5 points better than 00 Shaq, around 1 point better than multiple LeBron years).

Both the same as in the #5 thread. Having Kareem out of the way makes me that more confortable with my choices.

3. 1994 Hakeem Olajuwon
Really similar player ITO pros and cons to 1977 Kareem, our last induction.

I have the feeling 86 and 87 Bird is getting overrated due to the loaded teams, I don't think he was that much better than in his early years (he was already all-time caliber back then, of course).

No-more-rings · Post #9 » by **No-more-rings** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 10:17 am

1. No one expected the Warriors to go 16-0, and I don’t know if a team will ever do that in the playoffs.

2. I doubt Lebron was “frustrated” by Curry, and what would happen to the league, etc. The competitor in him was probably looking forward to the challenge.

E-Balla · Post #10 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:30 am

Alright so I'm keeping my vote:

1. Duncan 03
2. Hakeem 94
3. Duncan 02

With a discussion post on the way (I'll get into why I'm not too big on KG, Steph, and Bird in another post too, might not be able to respond to it a ton though my week is busy as hell).

HHera187 · Post #11 » by **HHera187** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:39 am

1: Bill Russell 1964
Goat defense season, -11.5 rDRTG for Boston anchored by Bill.
2: Tim Duncan 2003
Most balanced season of his career, all time level rim protection and carried an average offensive team with his post up scoring.
3: Larry Bird 1986
One of the best offensive season of all time: elite passing, hyper efficient scoring and goat offensive portability (tied with Steph)

Sent from my CLT-L09 using RealGM mobile app

Post #12 » by **penbeast0** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:46 pm

1. Russell 62. Wilt had the GOAT stat season of all time, a good supporting team around him (Arizin, Gola, Attles, Rodgers, and Meschery) and Russell's defense STILL made Boston the best team in the league with 60 wins to Philly's 49 and the title.

2. Russell 64. Changed it from 65 after reading other posts.

3. Russell 65.

Bill Russell's impact was greater than any other player in NBA history and that includes Michael Jordan. Because it was defensive impact, not offensive impact, people tend to overlook it in these projects.

And, the pre-expansion 60s teams were stronger, on the average, than the teams of the 70s (Kareem), or 80s (Bird, Magic), and were roughly equivalent to the 90s (Jordan) though not as strong as those of the 21 century. The player pool was smaller but only divided among 8-9 teams rather than 20 some. So, the "weak era" argument isn't valid like it would be vs. a 50s or 70s player.

Also, although there were only two rounds of playoffs, instead of looking by year, look by series. Russell's winning percentage in playoff series blows away any subsequent player in NBA history who didn't play with him including Jordan. He contributed more to winning on those bad offense, great defense Celtic teams than anyone else.

E-Balla · Post #13 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:28 pm

So I wanted to talk 76 Dr. J and Kareem vs 02 Duncan but Kareem got voted in so I'll instead discuss the next batch of guys I have up (Duncan, Hakeem, Dr. J, Magic, Russell, Oscar) and why I place them over KG, Bird, and Curry (who I'm surprised is getting mentioned this early, even though maybe I shouldn't be).

KG vs Duncan vs Hakeem vs Russell:

Spoiler:

I feel these 4 should be argued together as it's easier to compare guys playing similar positions and roles. All these guys were offensive hubs, Duncan and KG both passing and scoring hubs, Hakeem more of a strict scoring hub, Russell more of a strict passing hub. All 4 are arguably top 5 defenders ever. 3 of them won a ring. 2 of them won a ring on a team with no other All Stars.

KG falls compared to these 3 mainly off one thing, he didn't win like they did despite having similar circumstances. Looking at the Rockets, Spurs, and Wolves rosters the best teammate on any of the 3 teams was Sam Cassell by a distance and I'd rank the supporting casts Rockets, Wolves, Spurs.

Now KG gets a mulligan from most because Cassell was missing against LA outside of game 1 (he still played after but wasn't good) but they still lost that game and had a chance in the series anyway. If KG was able to produce offensively like Hakeem or Duncan he would've won.

KG averaged 23.7 ppg and 4.5 apg on 51.8 TS% with a 100 ORTG against LA. That's about what Duncan did against them the round before (which is why no one mentions 04 as one of Duncan's best seasons). I just don't think KG is the offensive player those guys are. His playmaking isn't much better than Duncan (from 01-04 Duncan averaged 4.5 apg and 3.7 topg in the postseason while KG averaged 5.0 apg and 3.6 topg), his scoring isn't in the same realm as Duncan (similar scoring averages with Duncan's 24.6 ppg and KG's 24.4 but Duncan's TS% is very good at 56% while KG's is average at 52%), and overall the impact metrics grade KG as slightly better but that's regular season centric and looking at the postseason +/- numbers I'd assume Duncan is ahead there (Duncan's 01-04 on/off is +22.3 and his on court rating is a +7.2 while KG's on/off is +18.6 and his on court rating is -1.6).

I can't isolate their postseason RAPM in 03 and 04 specifically or through their 3 year peaks specifically but I'd think Duncan comes out ahead there, just like he comes out ahead statistically and in terms of team success. Recently I've begun to even doubt whether or not KG was better than Duncan in 04 (he had the better season but I'm starting to think that's mainly because of Duncan's injury). In 04 and 05 combined Duncan missed nearly 30 games and the Spurs SRS with him Rasho, Ginobili, Parker, and Bowen playing was a +8.8. Their SRS when it was just Rasho, Ginobili, Parker, and Bowen was a +1.9. Of course Minny wouldn't be a +2 team without KG but they also weren't close to being a +9 team with KG capping out at +6.

Now Hakeem's argument over him is simply that I don't think KG could've won if he was in Hakeem's place. Now I'm not saying Hakeem could win in KG's place but I do think he makes it just as far as KG and gives them a better chance to win. I posted KG's stats against LA but against a vastly superior Knicks defense Hakeem averaged 26.9 ppg and 3.6 apg on 55.6 TS% with a 105 ORTG. Outside of believing KG made up for that with vastly superior defense (I don't, Hakeem averaged 1.6 spg, 3.9 bpg, and held Ewing to 18.9 ppg on 39 TS% with a 85 ORTG) I just can't put him over Hakeem.

Now I do get the argument for KG over them, it's all +/- based. If you think RAPM is solid enough that a small gap in RAPM is meaningful I get putting him this high but then I don't see how Russell isn't put over him. Over his whole career Boston had a 6.91 SRS when Russell played and a -1.9 SRS when he sat. In 62 specifically they were a 9.1 SRS team with Russell (including the playoffs) which was by far his best team and they had a -12.7 SRS in the 4 games he missed.

In the postseason Russell led Boston in scoring (22.4 ppg), was 2nd in assists (5.0 per game), and led the team in scoring efficiency (51.9 TS%, +4 rTS%). He held Wilt to 33.6 ppg on 51.6 TS% in their 7 game series including 22 points in game 7 (remember Wilt averaged 50.4 ppg on 53.6 TS% in the regular season) and in game 7 of the Finals Russell put up 30/40 on 59 TS%. If we're going with impact being taken into account over the numbers I see no reason why Russell shouldn't be on the board above anyone else.

Magic vs Bird:

Spoiler:

Now while impact is the discussion let's talk Magic for a second and why I have him over both KG and Bird. When it comes to judging impact metrics for players prior to 98 it's easy to forget that there had to be outliers even in previous eras. When looking at ElGee's WOWYR data its impossible to not notice Magic is one of those era outliers. Magic's prime WOWYR is far ahead of every one outside of John Stockton (who's post prime RAPM is the stuff of legends) when comparing him to players in his era or otherwise. His +10.0 career WOWYR is far ahead of everyone else (Oscar is 2nd at +8.5, Jordan 3rd at +8.2). When actually looking at the individual season he averaged 23.9 ppg and 12.2 apg on +6.4 rTS%. This is another one of those seasons where the greatness is in it's consistency. He might've had one bad game all season (8/5/4 vs Milwaukee in a 23 point loss).

In the postseason it goes 2 ways because Magic played in a weak conference and had a cakewalk to the Finals but he absolutely dominated a great Celtics team once he was there. He averaged 26/8/13 against Boston on 59 TS% with a 132 ORTG (thanks to his 8.9 TOV%). To that point in NBA history, excluding teams that played before the shot clock (leading to wonky rORTG numbers) the 87 Lakers had the best postseason rORTG ever and the best combined regular and postseason rORTG for any team to make the Finals. I mention "to that point in NBA history" because as the 3 pointer becomes more prominent the variance of offenses increases, and I believe that era for era the 87 Lakers are the best offense ever.

When a player is consistently that great game to game because their greatness is predicated mostly on their insane vision and passing ability it's a scary thing and I'd say a scarier thing than Russell's equal level of greatness on the defensive end. And while we're on the topic of Magic let me mention I barely see a difference in Magic between 85 and 87 so that's my main argument against 86 Bird, I don't even think he was the best player in the league.

Looking at them Bird led the better team with the fully healthy Celtics playing at a +9.9 level including the postseason but the Lakers were still a +7 team and Magic didn't have another MVP level player like McHale on his roster (Boston played like a +7 team without McHale just like LA did). Looking at them based on team success and boxscore numbers it's hard to say who's better once you remember Magic wasn't going to do any more than he needed to to score in a given possession as a team. Here's where I use postseason performance and in that realm I have no reason to take Bird over Magic.

Even though Houston beat LA Magic averaged 22/8/16 on 60 TS% with a 127 ORTG. The other starters all had a 100 or lower ORTG and they coughed the ball up at an extremely high rate while not creating many shots for themselves. Bird the next round against that same team averaged 24/10/10 on 58 TS% with a 124 ORTG while he had an MVP type guy like McHale next to him averaging 26/9/2 on 63 TS% with a 118 ORTG. So sure Bird was amazing, but Magic a round earlier was even more amazing than Bird. Now I know this is a peak project but for these guys specifically just in case someone wants to argue this is a fluke we can look at how they played head to head in the 84, 85, and 87 Finals too and see Magic outplayed him in all 3 of those series too. So in 4 straight years they either went head to head or had a like opponent and Magic played better each time, even in the 84 Finals which is seen as one of Magic's worst series due to 2 clock management errors and a game in 97 degree weather where everyone but Larry and DJ seemed to play like they were going to have a heat stroke Magic was just as good as him overall (18/8/14 vs 27/14/4). Unless I can hear an argument for why Bird isn't clearly under Magic (not saying far under Magic, but clearly) I can't justify placing him in this batch of guys.

Dr. J:

Spoiler:

euroleague · Post #14 » by **euroleague** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:32 pm

No-more-rings wrote:1. No one expected the Warriors to go 16-0, and I don’t know if a team will ever do that in the playoffs.

2. I doubt Lebron was “frustrated” by Curry, and what would happen to the league, etc. The competitor in him was probably looking forward to the challenge.

I’m going off news articles and lebron’s statements. Not your opinion

No-more-rings · Post #15 » by **No-more-rings** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:54 pm

euroleague wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:1. No one expected the Warriors to go 16-0, and I don’t know if a team will ever do that in the playoffs.

2. I doubt Lebron was “frustrated” by Curry, and what would happen to the league, etc. The competitor in him was probably looking forward to the challenge.

I’m going off news articles and lebron’s statements. Not your opinion

Links?

Post #16 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:26 pm

Ballot #1 - 03 Duncan

We sorta forget that Mr. Consistency was a really dominant player who played major minutes at his best. An excellent regular season topped of by a stellar championship run makes him more than deserving.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2003-nba-finals-nets-vs-spurs.html

Ballot #2 - 87 Magic

Magic was a unique and special player. Took his game to another level that season, especially when relied on more as a primary offensive option. He led the lakers to league best 67-15 record and ultimately the championship against the celtics.

RS - 23.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 12.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, .5 BPG, 60.2% TS, 124 ORTG, .263 WS/48

PS - 21.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 12.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, .4 BPG, 60.2% TS, 129 ORTG, .265 WS/48

Ballot #3 - 86 Bird

I can't help but tie magic and bird together here. They're 2 of the best on the fly decision makers the league has ever seen, and that's something you can't teach. I'll have to start looking closely at kidd to see where I'll rank him since i put him in that group as well.

Bird, similar to Duncan had a great regular season in 86, but took his game even further in the playoffs averaging nearly a triple double on 61.5% TS en route to the title.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/1986-nba-finals-rockets-vs-celtics.html

[Yes, championship heavy, I know. Still not a requirement for me to be a player's peak, just fitting in these situations.]

euroleague · Post #17 » by **euroleague** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:46 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Magic vs Bird:

Now while impact is the discussion let's talk Magic for a second and why I have him over both KG and Bird. When it comes to judging impact metrics for players prior to 98 it's easy to forget that there had to be outliers even in previous eras. When looking at ElGee's WOWYR data its impossible to not notice Magic is one of those era outliers. Magic's prime WOWYR is far ahead of every one outside of John Stockton (who's post prime RAPM is the stuff of legends) when comparing him to players in his era or otherwise. His +10.0 career WOWYR is far ahead of everyone else (Oscar is 2nd at +8.5, Jordan 3rd at +8.2). When actually looking at the individual season he averaged 23.9 ppg and 12.2 apg on +6.4 rTS%. This is another one of those seasons where the greatness is in it's consistency. He might've had one bad game all season (8/5/4 vs Milwaukee in a 23 point loss).

In the postseason it goes 2 ways because Magic played in a weak conference and had a cakewalk to the Finals but he absolutely dominated a great Celtics team once he was there. He averaged 26/8/13 against Boston on 59 TS% with a 132 ORTG (thanks to his 8.9 TOV%). To that point in NBA history, excluding teams that played before the shot clock (leading to wonky rORTG numbers) the 87 Lakers had the best postseason rORTG ever and the best combined regular and postseason rORTG for any team to make the Finals. I mention "to that point in NBA history" because as the 3 pointer becomes more prominent the variance of offenses increases, and I believe that era for era the 87 Lakers are the best offense ever.

When a player is consistently that great game to game because their greatness is predicated mostly on their insane vision and passing ability it's a scary thing and I'd say a scarier thing than Russell's equal level of greatness on the defensive end. And while we're on the topic of Magic let me mention I barely see a difference in Magic between 85 and 87 so that's my main argument against 86 Bird, I don't even think he was the best player in the league.

Looking at them Bird led the better team with the fully healthy Celtics playing at a +9.9 level including the postseason but the Lakers were still a +7 team and Magic didn't have another MVP level player like McHale on his roster (Boston played like a +7 team without McHale just like LA did). Looking at them based on team success and boxscore numbers it's hard to say who's better once you remember Magic wasn't going to do any more than he needed to to score in a given possession as a team. Here's where I use postseason performance and in that realm I have no reason to take Bird over Magic.

Even though Houston beat LA Magic averaged 22/8/16 on 60 TS% with a 127 ORTG. The other starters all had a 100 or lower ORTG and they coughed the ball up at an extremely high rate while not creating many shots for themselves. Bird the next round against that same team averaged 24/10/10 on 58 TS% with a 124 ORTG while he had an MVP type guy like McHale next to him averaging 26/9/2 on 63 TS% with a 118 ORTG. So sure Bird was amazing, but Magic a round earlier was even more amazing than Bird. Now I know this is a peak project but for these guys specifically just in case someone wants to argue this is a fluke we can look at how they played head to head in the 84, 85, and 87 Finals too and see Magic outplayed him in all 3 of those series too. So in 4 straight years they either went head to head or had a like opponent and Magic played better each time, even in the 84 Finals which is seen as one of Magic's worst series due to 2 clock management errors and a game in 97 degree weather where everyone but Larry and DJ seemed to play like they were going to have a heat stroke Magic was just as good as him overall (18/8/14 vs 27/14/4). Unless I can hear an argument for why Bird isn't clearly under Magic (not saying far under Magic, but clearly) I can't justify placing him in this batch of guys.

In '85, you seem to be glossing over that Magic slightly outplayed Bird... when Bird had a broken hand from a bar fight less than a week before the Finals started.

In '86, Bird outplayed Magic quite obviously. In '84, he did as well -
Bird: 28ppg on 60% TS
Magic: 18ppg on 61% TS

They were both efficient scorers, but Bird absolutely dominated in volume. Magic refused to take over when kareem was struggling, and as a result his team suffered. James Worthy and Kareem were arguably the 3rd and 4th best players in the series, but the Celtics won it. Bird also outrebounded Magic.

In '87 is when the road to the Finals became harder than the Finals itself. The Pistons were arguably the best team in the league from 87 to 90, and the Celtics needed a miracle steal by Bird to win the series. I think in '87 the fatigue from constantly battling just to make the Finals was also causing some injuries among the Celtics. McHale played the Finals on a broken foot and defended Magic with serious limitations, not to mention that Walton hadn't played all year.

I think you use ORTG too much, without an understanding of how it's actually computed. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
ORTG doesn't accurately show as much as you think, and you're definitely inflating it's rating. While it is useful, it's not the end-all of offensive analysis.

I'll add more on this later

E-Balla · Post #18 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:52 pm

euroleague wrote:
In '85, you seem to be glossing over that Magic slightly outplayed Bird... when Bird had a broken hand from a bar fight less than a week before the Finals started.

I don't think his broken finger (it wasn't a hand IIRC) really mattered. He was struggling in the 3 games leading up to the injury, shot 11/19 the day after the injury, and was 86% from the line and 39% from deep after the injury (around his usual percentages).

In '86, Bird outplayed Magic quite obviously. In '84, he did as well -
Bird: 28ppg on 60% TS
Magic: 18ppg on 61% TS

That looks like he outscored him not that he outplayed him. What you essentially said here was Larry Bird outscored a pass first PG. For that type of analysis I guess Magic was rarely the best player in a playoff series prior to 87. In 84 Magic's team outscored Larry's in the series despite losing, and if you look game to game Magic clearly outplayed Bird in games 1, 2 (even with his blunder that lost them the game), and 3. Bird only clearly outplayed Magic in games 4 and 5.

They were both efficient scorers, but Bird absolutely dominated in volume. Magic refused to take over when kareem was struggling, and as a result his team suffered. James Worthy and Kareem were arguably the 3rd and 4th best players in the series, but the Celtics won it. Bird also outrebounded Magic.

Not at all true. Outside of the Heat Game where like I said everyone but Bird seemed to feel the effects of the heat Kareem scored under 29 points twice and Magic in those games had 27/10/9 (in a 3 point OT loss) and 14/11/21 in a 33 point win. His two best games of the series. The only way Magic failed was in the ends of games 2 and 4. That offense struggled at no point in the series.

I think you use ORTG too much, without an understanding of how it's actually computed. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
ORTG doesn't accurately show as much as you think, and you're definitely inflating it's rating. While it is useful, it's not the end-all of offensive analysis.

I'll add more on this later

And no one is using it as such. I think maybe you need to read where it's included in my posts and the context it's being used in. We're talking about offensive players and their efficiency. ORTG is the only stat even attempting to turn basic boxscore numbers into a synergy style PPP and it's infinitely more useful than individually listing someone's TOV%, assist totals, OREB%, TS%, and USG% and weighing them all individually in your head to see who is more efficient (which at the end of the day if you did would give you a value either equal to or almost equal to ORTG). If anything TS% without a mention of ORTG is used too much because it's totally possible to be an inefficient scorer and an efficient player and vice versa.

Also what does "and you're definitely inflating it's rating" mean? I don't get what that sentence was supposed to mean here...

euroleague · Post #19 » by **euroleague** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:15 pm

E-Balla wrote:That looks like he outscored him not that he outplayed him. What you essentially said here was Larry Bird outscored a pass first PG. For that type of analysis I guess Magic was rarely the best player in a playoff series prior to 87. In 84 Magic's team outscored Larry's in the series despite losing, and if you look game to game Magic clearly outplayed Bird in games 1, 2 (even with his blunder that lost them the game), and 3. Bird only clearly outplayed Magic in games 4 and 5.

Scoring at a huge volume, way above the average scoring efficiency when your team has no other elite scorers yet (McHale hadn't become a star yet) is obviously valuable. You're criticizing me for using scoring as a metric, then using TEAM SCORING to argue Magic was better. Magic's TEAM was way better.... doesn't mean Magic was better.

Michael Cooper
James Worthy
post-prime Bob McAdoo
Kareem Abdul Jabbar

vs

Dennis Johnson
Cedric Maxwell
pre-prime Kevin McHale
Robert Parish

Kareem is far better than anyone on the Celtics team. Kareem had a higher playoff PER than Magic, and was All-NBA 1st team and All-defensive 2nd. Going by PER, the next 3 best players are on the Lakers.

Magic was a team-first player, but acting like him being better than Bird is the reason his team was better than the Celtics is rather ridiculous.

E-Balla wrote:Not at all true. Outside of the Heat Game where like I said everyone but Bird seemed to feel the effects of the heat Kareem scored under 29 points twice and Magic in those games had 27/10/9 (in a 3 point OT loss) and 14/11/21 in a 33 point win. His two best games of the series. The only way Magic failed was in the ends of games 2 and 4. That offense struggled at no point in the series.

Bird as a whole outplayed Magic. I had a long counter argument typed up, but somehow deleted it while formatting.

Bird dominated in scoring, but also rebounding - he led both teams at 14rpg as he outrebounded Kareem. The Celtics outrebounded the Lakers on the offensive boards by 35 over the series. Bird impacted the series far more in scoring and rebounding than Magic did in those areas. Comparing Bird's assist numbers as a PF to Magic's as a PG seems ridiculous considering their roles in the offense, but obviously Magic was playmaking more often.

Looking at their 3 best players, the scoring was about 5ppg apart. However, McAdoo had better offensive stats than anyone on the Celtics except Bird.

Kareem + Magic + James Worthy vs Bird + Dennis Johnson + Robert Parish

The disparity is really large there.

E-Balla wrote:And no one is using it as such. I think maybe you need to read where it's included in my posts and the context it's being used in. We're talking about offensive players and their efficiency. ORTG is the only stat even attempting to turn basic boxscore numbers into a synergy style PPP and it's infinitely more useful than individually listing someone's TOV%, assist totals, OREB%, TS%, and USG% and weighing them all individually in your head to see who is more efficient (which at the end of the day if you did would give you a value either equal to or almost equal to ORTG). If anything TS% without a mention of ORTG is used too much because it's totally possible to be an inefficient scorer and an efficient player and vice versa.

Also what does "and you're definitely inflating it's rating" mean? I don't get what that sentence was supposed to mean here...

On ORTG:
ORTG is one of many stats trying to equate box score numbers into possession ranking. However, the way it's done leaves many variables unclear and often inflates the offensive values of low volume hyper-efficient scorers who also stuff the box score in other ways. Magic did that in this series.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/off_rtg_season.html

Most of those guys aren't great offensive players.

E-Balla · Post #20 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:39 pm

euroleague wrote:
Scoring at a huge volume, way above the average scoring efficiency when your team has no other elite scorers yet (McHale hadn't become a star yet) is obviously valuable. You're criticizing me for using scoring as a metric,

No I'm criticizing you for using scoring as your only metric. I used scoring as a metric in my post too, it just wasn't the only one used.

then using TEAM SCORING to argue Magic was better. Magic's TEAM was way better.... doesn't mean Magic was better.

Well see that's the positives of posts, people can include multiple arguments in them at one time so people can read more than one piece of supporting evidence for a claim in a post. Try doing that next time you look at my posts, you'll be in for a treat!

Michael Cooper
James Worthy
post-prime Bob McAdoo
Kareem Abdul Jabbar

vs

Dennis Johnson
Cedric Maxwell
pre-prime Kevin McHale
Robert Parish

The problem with analysis like this is that you're just listing names with no analysis of the players which allows you to do something super misleading like list James Worthy without mentioning pre-prime as he was in his 2nd season and put up the worst numbers he ever had playing next to Magic, while at the same time saying McHale in a year where he was 6MOTY, and an All Star was "pre-prime". This is a clear slanted post, and you know if you were focusing on adding to the discussion instead of just trying to "win" you wouldn't have posted this.

Kareem is far better than anyone on the Celtics team. Kareem had a higher playoff PER than Magic, and was All-NBA 1st team and All-defensive 2nd. Going by PER, the next 3 best players are on the Lakers.

Magic was a team-first player, but acting like him being better than Bird is the reason his team was better than the Celtics is rather ridiculous.

Well his team wasn't better in 84 (less wins, way lower SRS, and lost to them in the Finals, no argument there) if we're still discussing 84 and Magic wasn't better than him in 84 either. I said he outplayed him in the 84 Finals or that it was at least close enough to be a toss up. Magic improved a lot in 85 and with it that toss up in 84 turned into Magic clearly outplaying him in 85 and 87.

Bird as a whole outplayed Magic. I had a long counter argument typed up, but somehow deleted it while formatting.

Bird dominated in scoring, but also rebounding - he led both teams at 14rpg as he outrebounded Kareem.

Kareem was 36 years old and averaging 7.3 rpg in the regular season (the same as Magic) this wasn't any type of accomplishment.

The Celtics outrebounded the Lakers on the offensive boards by 35 over the series. Bird impacted the series far more in scoring and rebounding than Magic did in those areas. Comparing Bird's assist numbers as a PF to Magic's as a PG seems ridiculous considering their roles in the offense, but obviously Magic was playmaking more often.

And I can easily say the same about rebounding and scoring. What's more unique/what adds more value than expected by a replacement a PG averaging 7.7 rpg and 13.6 apg or a PF averaging 14.0 rpg and 3.6 apg? So if you're going to disregard the impact of an extra 10 assists a game because they play different positions don't turn around and act like 14 rebounds a game is particularly impressive (it's great, but not particularly impressive).

Looking at their 3 best players, the scoring was about 5ppg apart. However, McAdoo had better offensive stats than anyone on the Celtics except Bird.

Kareem + Magic + James Worthy vs Bird + Dennis Johnson + Robert Parish

The disparity is really large there.

If it's large it's in favor of the Celtics. James Worthy was a 2nd year player that played extremely well because he was getting the rock from the GOAT PG. How much of Boston's decreased production outside of Bird had to do with his vastly descreased playmaking. He averaged 6.6 apg in the regular season and 6.9 apg in the playoffs prior to the Finals. If he's not creating buckets for them of course their efficiency will drop. Now he still played great overall because he scored well but I wouldn't say he played clearly better than Magic with that large playmaking edge Magic

On ORTG:
ORTG is one of many stats trying to equate box score numbers into possession ranking.

No it isn't it's a measure of efficiency like TS% and TOV% are, it just incorporates ALL possessions including turnovers, saved possessions (ORBs), shooting possessions, and turned over possessions. It's the single best measurement of efficiency on the boxscore. I think you're the one that needs to understand what ORTG is before commenting on it.

However, the way it's done leaves many variables unclear and often inflates the offensive values of low volume hyper-efficient scorers who also stuff the box score in other ways. Magic did that in this series.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/off_rtg_season.html

Most of those guys aren't great offensive players.

I guess we shouldn't use these stats either then?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ts_pct_season.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/tov_pct_season.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg3_pct_season.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/fg_pct_season.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ft_pct_season.html

And if it seems like I'm being condescending with this part of the post it's because we've been through this 50 million times before and you still for some reason can't grasp that ORTG is a measurement of efficiency.