Peaks project update: #8

[Colbinii]

1. 62 Russell
2. 64 Russell
3. 65 Russell

[GeorgeMarcus]

1. 62 Russell
2. 64 Russell
3. 65 Russell

I couldn't decide whether to put Russell 1st on my list or leave him off entirely. I chose the latter but I don't feel great about it. 64 Russell, 93 Olajuwon, 76 Dr J and 04 KG were all in the mix.

[DatAsh]

1. 1964 Russell
2. 1965 Russell
3. 1962 Russell

Same reasoning as last time. Most dominant player ever, and the difference in talent pool doesn't quite make up the gap for me.

[trex_8063]

I've been absent from the project for a thread or two; sort of a surprise result [to me] that Bird got in at #7, but I haven't had a chance to read much of the arguments.

Anyway, I'll try to get back into this one.....

1st ballot - '94 Hakeem Olajuwon
Most gauges [and evaluating persons] rate his defensive impact as near the top for his generation. Combine that with his solid scoring skills (that with his range, footwork, and varied scoring repertoire he was able to scale up at no significant loss of efficiency during the playoffs) and decent big-man passing, and obviously he was a pretty damn potent offensive player, too (and I do love two-way players, at least for these top spots).
Although his supporting casts of the mid-90's get poo-pooed on more than I think is strictly justified, it's certainly true that he had limited offensive help in '94; but he managed to keep the offense treading water (at a level of mediocre) during the rs. Then they OUTPERFORMED expectation (vs the defense faced) in each and every playoff series en route to a title.

2nd ballot - '93 Hakeem Olajuwon
tbh, it's almost splittin' hairs between '93 and '94 Hakeem to me. I know '94 is the consensus year, but I guess I'm just going to sort of spam this ballot with Hakeem because I think he's the best candidate. I'll not be voting for '95, though, as I do think he'd declined by then (even if it was still enough to get the job done vis a vis another title).

3rd ballot - '04 Kevin Garnett
Another amazing two-way player. Dominant defensive year while also averaging 24.2 ppg and 5.0 apg (despite a damn-near stopped pace of just 89); only slightly above average shooting efficiency, but near GOAT-level big-man turnover economy. Anchored the 5th-rated offense while simultaneously anchoring the 6th-rated defense with principle supporting cast being Sam Cassell, an ancient Latrell Sprewell, Trenton Hassell, Fred Hoiberg, Mark Madsen, and Gary Trent.
I truly suspect they'd have gone to the finals (possibly won??) if not for Sam Cassell's most untimely injury [if memory serves, wasn't it a pulled groin as result of doing a celebratory "big balls" dance? ].
Garnett is on another planet from every other player in the league in RAPM this season (literally +3 from the guy in 2nd [Shaq]). Though never one to fixate on a single metric, it's good to know that he was also #1 in the league in rs PER (by >2 over the 2nd-placed player), #1 in rs WS (by nearly 5 over the 2nd-placed player), #1 in rs VORP (by >2 over the 2nd-placed player), etc.

[Bel]

1. 64 Russell
2. 65 Russell
3. 62 Russell

I agree that Russell is suffering because there's no real clear best year. Considering I have him as the GOAT and just how positive his contemporaries viewed all his intangibles, it seems absurd to let him drop any lower.

Don't know whether Magic or Hakeem would be next, but I would be more inclined towards 94 or 95 Hakeem over 93. I don't see how Curry can realistically be considered this early, given his best RS/PS are not the same season, and he seems to have a significant drop in performance when the refs allow his opponents to play more physically on him.

Thoughts on whether any year besides 87 should be considered for Magic? I know its considered his traditional best year, but I was very impressed by his half-court play in his later years, and his ability to keep the offense flowing so seamlessly despite injury issues, no more showtime, and him attracting so much opposing attention (i,e 91 finals). I'd consider putting his 91 playoffs as his peak PS offensively, but he definitely showed a downgrade defensively compared to his younger years with Riley's schemes.

[Joey Wheeler]

1. Hakeem 94
2. Dr. J 76
3. Magic Johnson 87

These were all explained in my discussion post 2 threads ago. I do want to say I'm shocked Bird is in already, and shocked he's in without much discussion on why people picked him. Can we add a requirement that you have to give a detailed reasoning for your pick at least once (I know a few people actually made legit cases for Bird but a few didn't) because I feel like the amount of discussion for Bird was well under how much we discussed places 1-7.

I've been voting Bird since #1 and made my case for it, received absolutely no objections to the point I made or "Yeah, but player X is better because..." type replies either. I'd have replied (and still will) and discussed it, but can't really fight non-existent objections.

Around #3 or #4, other people started making their cases for Bird too, again with no real objections that I can remember. If he was under discussed it was because the people who disagreed with his selection didn't really express their objections.

That's why I pointed out how a few people made legit cases, I didn't say no one did.

People who voted for Bird as their first ballot in the last thread:

Me (justified my vote in the #1 thread)
Ardee (justified his vote)
euroleague (justified his vote)
Bel (justified his vote)

Then there were people who voted for him 2nd or 3rd who also offered reasons. If there was no discussion it was because the people who disagreed with those votes or the reasoning given didn't really offer any objections to get a discussion rolling.

[Joey Wheeler]

1-Magic Johnson 1987
2-Magic Johnson 1990
3-Magic Johnson 1991

Best player left by far, imo should have been in already. Has a great case as the best offensive player of all-time, I have him #2 after Bird but it's close. He was one of the GOAT offensive players even as a rookie but just got better and better as his career went on, by his late years he could control the pace of the game at will, put his teammates in the best possible positions to succeed, dominate the game while not monopolizing the offense and score efficiently when necessary. He was GOAT level in the halfcourt, where he was the best post player ever imo, and the undisputed GOAT transition player.

He, and not Kareem, was the leader and the catalyst of the Showtime Lakers, one of the NBA's greatest dynasties.

[Odinn21]

1-Magic Johnson 1987
2-Magic Johnson 1990
3-Magic Johnson 1991

Best player left by far, imo should have been in already. Has a great case as the best offensive player of all-time, I have him #2 after Bird but it's close. He was one of the GOAT offensive players even as a rookie but just got better and better as his career went on, by his late years he could control the pace of the game at will, put his teammates in the best possible positions to succeed, dominate the game while not monopolizing the offense and score efficiently when necessary. He was GOAT level in the halfcourt, where he was the best post player ever imo, and the undisputed GOAT transition player.

He, and not Kareem, was the leader and the catalyst of the Showtime Lakers, one of the NBA's greatest dynasties.

As for bolded parts;
- That's just an overrating. Seriously. Bill Russell, Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Garnett are still in the pool. How Magic is better than them, by far?..
- I don't mean to be rude or shallow but WTH. If he was such a great post player how the hell he got locked up by Pippen in '91 Finals? The answer can not be Pippen being one of the goat defenders because if the best post player ever gets owned by one of the the greatest defenders, that would make defense more important than offense and you lose your reason to rate Magic so highly.
- Well, the Lakers weren't the showtime Lakers in 1980 and 1982 titles, their playstyle was way different. Also, Kareem was still the leader of the team in early seasons of showtime era. He was the leader in dressing room and he was the leader of halfcourt play/scoring. It was the upset in 1986, against Houston, that caused the change. After it, Riley asked Kareem to give the reign to Magic and Kareem agreed.

[Colbinii]

1. 62 Russell
2. 64 Russell
3. 65 Russell

I couldn't decide whether to put Russell 1st on my list or leave him off entirely. I chose the latter but I don't feel great about it. 64 Russell, 93 Olajuwon, 76 Dr J and 04 KG were all in the mix.

I feel like his impact simply beats out everyone else to a degree I feel comfortable putting him in now. I'm excited for once he gets in.

[Clyde Frazier]

Ballot #1 - 87 Magic
Ballot #2 - 76 Dr. J
Ballot #3 - 64 Oscar

--------------------

Ballot #1 - 87 Magic

Magic was a unique and special player. Took his game to another level that season, especially when relied on more as a primary offensive option. He led the lakers to league best 67-15 record and ultimately the championship against the celtics.

RS - 23.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 12.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, .5 BPG, 60.2% TS, 124 ORTG, .263 WS/48

PS - 21.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 12.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, .4 BPG, 60.2% TS, 129 ORTG, .265 WS/48

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/1987-nba-finals-celtics-vs-lakers.html

Watch on YouTube

Via NY Times from 12/6/87

Even then he flirted with a reputation as the game's greatest player. Now 28 - the start of what many feel are a player's peak years - and coming off his best season, he has a legitimate claim to it.

What a season it was! Playing brilliantly from November to June, Johnson led Los Angeles to its fifth world championship, ran away with the N.B.A.'s Most Valuable Player Award, led the league in assists (his 977 were 129 more than the runner-up) and finished in the top 10 in scoring.

He was also named the best player in the championship series against the Boston Celtics, his hook shot with two seconds left winning the pivotal fourth game and his all-out play breaking open a close final contest. His totals for that last game were 16 points (12 in the third quarter when the Lakers rallied), 19 assists, 8 rebounds and 3 steals.

''Can the game be played any better than Magic played it in the third period. . .?'' asked Sports Illustrated.

Via Sports Illustrated from 6/29/87

This year the Lakers finally were Magic's team: Speed is power, power is speed. Slowly the cast had changed. Michael Cooper had emerged; A.C. Green and James Worthy had been added. Even Mychal Thompson, the most important pickup by either team this year, once was strong enough to play center yet was fast enough to play small forward at times. One had, at certain moments, a sense of watching a prototype of a different breed of athlete -- strong, fast, disciplined -- playing at a level of stunning intensity, with surprisingly few turnovers.

If the Knicks of the late '60s could be described as four guards and one forward (Willis Reed), then this was often a team of four forwards led by a point guard who could, in a very recent era, have played power forward. What made the series so special was the sharp contrast in the styles of Los Angeles and Boston and the knowledge that these two teams, with cameo appearances by Philadelphia and Houston, have essentially dominated the championships since Bird and Johnson entered the league in 1979. That and, of course, the fact that both teams have gradually been shaped to the styles and contours of their superstars, one white and one black.

The Celtics, this year's defending champions, play half-court basketball, and they play it better than any team in the league. That they had even made it to the finals was remarkable, given the death of Len Bias, the infirmities of Bill Walton and the fact that Kevin McHale and Robert Parish were both playing with injuries. But Boston finally lacked the bench mandatory for a tough playoff final and the speed to stay with L.A. in a running game. The Celtic front line, after all, was composed of three exceptional basketball players, while the first seven players for the Lakers seemed to be both exceptional basketball players and exceptional athletes.

One had to look no further than the contrast between McHale and Worthy to understand the classic matchup displayed in this series. If the Lakers controlled the tempo, it would mean that Worthy -- possibly the fastest big man going to the basket in the league -- would be a dominant player; if the Celtics controlled the pace, it meant they would be able to get the ball to McHale, surprisingly nimble and deft, uncommonly skilled at using his body and arms for maximum leverage. Each was an extension of the best of his team. For Worthy to be Worthy, Magic had to be Magic; for McHale to get the ball where he wanted it, Larry Bird and the Celtic offense had to move in proper mesh. If one was having a good game, the other probably was not.

Ballot #2 - 76 Dr. J

Watch on YouTube

I get it. It's a 5 minute clip, but I still think you can tell just how talented this guy was that year. An unstoppable offensive force leading his team to the championship. Nets also ranked 1st in defense that season.

For those who doubt the ABA, check out his per 100 #s in 76 vs. 80:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ervinju01.html#per_poss::none

They’re nearly identical including efficiency. This is when he was given a bigger role in the offense after Cunningham came aboard as coach.

It’s possible his ball handling is being underrated here due aesthetics. He kinda slapped the ball down as he dribbled, especially on the fast break. Similar to the way Barkley dribbled in his Sixers days. While it may have looked a little sloppy, I think it was just as effective given his big hands and long strides once he went to make his moves.

Also, his ability to get off shots at the rim in tight spaces was pretty incredible. This also had a lot to do with his body control.

The below footage is from 74, but it's pretty similar to the way he was playing in 76.

Watch on YouTube

Ballot #3 - 64 Oscar

Oscar's 64 season was very impressive on a number of levels:

RS: 31.4 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 11 APG, 48.3% FG, 85.3% FT (league leading on 11.9 FTAs per game), 57.6% TS (+9.1% vs. league avg), .278 WS/48

PS: 29.3 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 8.4 APG, 45.5% FG, 85.8% FT (12.7 FTAs per game), 56.8% TS, .245 WS/48

The royals ranked 2nd in SRS that season, losing in the playoffs to the #1 ranked SRS and eventual champion celtics. While his raw averages can certainly be attributed to the fast paced play during that era, his overall efficiency and ability to get to the line at will is pretty staggering.

Oscar's playoff #s do drop slightly across the board, but there's nothing there to suggest that he struggled. His best teammate Jerry Lucas had a serious drop off in scoring and efficiency come playoff time (17.7 PPG on 57.8% TS in RS vs. 12.2 PPG on 43.8% TS in PS). That very well could've been the difference in the series.

63-64 was his 4th season, so the below footage should be able to capture his style of play at the time:

Watch on YouTube

[Yeah... I could do without the music]

What stands out to me is his precision when he makes his moves as well as his strength when he gets inside. Reminds me of west, too, although he wasn't quite as powerful.

Oscar would win also win MVP that season in dominating fashion. Via NY Times:

Oscar Robertson, the Cincin­nati Royals' talented back‐court man, yesterday was voted the President's Trophy, the Na­tional Basketball Association's most valuable player award, by the biggest margin on record.

The voting is by N.B.A. play­ers, with the restriction that they cannot vote for members of their own teams. Robertson received 60 of a possible 85 first‐place votes. In the point scoring on a 5, 3, 1 basis, Robertson received a total of 362 points, a record.

Wilt Chamberlain of San Francisco, who won the trophy as a rookie in 1960, placed see­ond in the voting with 19 first­place votes and 215 points. Bill Russell of Boston, the winner for the last three years, was third with 11 firsts and 167 points.

[E-Balla]

So I'm going to get to this now while people are just starting to mention him but... Curry.

So personally Curry isn't in my top 20. I want that to be known off top here for full transparency. I place him under people like Kobe, Wade, T-Mac, Westbrook, about even with people like KD, CP3, and Nash. I also see 2015 as his best season, pretty clearly IMO.

The main reason for that is his postseason performances. People here will remember I was saying Curry was the GOAT at the end of the regular season in 2016, even though I argued at the time I didn't see any improvements in his game from 2014 to 2015 to 2016 (he added that nasty floater after 2013 but there was no major improvements from 14 to 15). Kerr's ability to install an offense that was perfect for his skillset led to an offensive explosion. So with me not seeing any improvement in his game I personally don't put him up there, but many people do think he improved. In what? IDK, I've heard arguments for things, none that properly take into account the difference in role he's had, but honestly it's irrelevant in my case against him, just the reason I personally put him way under most as opposed to just being against him under some guys.

Now into the actual argument against him, and this is similar to my argument against 2013 LeBron, his postseason performance wasn't top tier. Or even the tier under that. Or even the tier under that.

Spoiler:

Sidebar: I've already seen people excusing his injury. Why put him over Bill Walton if you're excusing injuries. Walton minus the injuries has a strong argument for #1.

In 2016 following that amazing regular season we got to see the team without him in 6 games in their first 2 rounds and the team went 4-2. He came back from his injury and looked perfectly healthy averaging 29.3/6.4/6.7 on 61.6 TS% in his 9 games before the Finals. Then in the Finals he was stopped by the same strategy that stopped him in the 2015 Finals and was the 4th best player in the series if I'm being generous (he has no argument over Draymond, Lebron, and Kyrie).

Now I don't think I have to explain why his 2016 Finals performance was ****, that's a given. What I do find more compelling is the argument that Draymond Green is more valuable to the team than Curry. Now I don't think he's better but someone earlier this year (maybe Spaceman?) brought up Draymond being better than Curry and it's kinda been burrowing into my head the more I think about it. Flat out I'm taking Draymond if you ask me which of the two I'd rather have if I'm trying to win 4 7 game series. Looking at postseason RAPM Draymond comes out tied for first with Lebron since 1998:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=112475182&single=true

And Curry's +/- numbers in the postseason outside of 2017 have always tailed Draymond's. Basically we have a guy that has the biggest regular season to postseason numbers drop in league history, played below superstar level in back to back Finals and wasn't the best player on his team in them, and falls behind a great teammate in all +/- metrics in both 2016 and other seasons. To me that signifies how much exactly the team helped him get those numbers in the regular season, how much they helped him get those impact numbers (it's worth mentioning Draymond had better +/- numbers in 2016 in the regular season too), and how his true level of play really wasn't super elite.

Other guys had great teammates and coaches of course but they were also clearly the best player on their rosters at all times. Can we say the same about Curry, and if we cannot can we put him over guys like Russell, KG, Dirk, Wade, Kobe, etc?

[HHera187]

Curry 2015 2019 in RS: 26.5 PTS / 6.5 AST / 5 TRB with 64.8 TS%

Curry 2015 2019 in PS: 27.2 PTS / 6 AST /5.7 TRB with 61.6 TS%

Drop?!


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[E-Balla]

Curry 2015 2019 in RS: 26.5 PTS / 6.5 AST / 5 TRB with 64.8 TS%

Curry 2015 2019 in PS: 27.2 PTS / 6 AST /5.7 TRB with 61.6 TS%

Drop?!


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Karl Malone 88-01 in RS: 27.0 PTS / 3.6 AST / 10.6 TRB with 58.9 TS%

Karl Malone 88-01 in the PS: 27.2 PTS / 3.2 AST / 11.3 TRB with 53.2 TS%

Drop?!

Spoiler:

Basically, what you posted was a bunch of random boxscore numbers that do actually show a drop but don't even represent the full boxscore, not to mention his actual impact. If you're doing that type of analysis on only a few of the relevant statistics there's almost no one you can say fell off in the postseason.

[HHera187]

So, what are the arguments against Curry?! Your personal vision?

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[HHera187]

He was always at 95/90 percentile in PIPM, rTS%, box creation, scoring rate... What are we talking about?

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[euroleague]

Curry was injured in 16, and since then his role has been diminished by the presence of Durant.

I do have Walton near the top, and explicitly said so - I don’t understand the point of the comparison. I have Walton in the top 15 - if anyone has an argument for him as #1, I would be open to seeing it, but I doubt it will be objective.

A postseason drop, in an offense that minimizes his role and has since 16, is pretty expected. KD’s role increases and Curry’s shrinks. In ‘16 Curry was injured. In ‘15 Curry wasn’t.

Taking these factors, and calling ‘15 Curry’s best year, is pretty absurd. Being injured in the postseason, and still making the Finals, is impressive in itself.

[freethedevil]

2004 Garnett, 2017 Curry, and 63 Russell would be my picks in no particular order. I'll elaborate on why later. I'll say this though, while i get curry had an amzing rs in 2016, winnign 73 games instead of 50 probably doesn't impact a team's chances as much as injuries in the playoffs. So, if we're looking as players utility in helping their teams get w's, I don't see the case for 2016 curry over 2017 curry.

[freethedevil]

Taking these factors, and calling ‘15 Curry’s best year, is pretty absurd. Being injured in the postseason, and still making the Finals, is impressive in itself.

Sentiment aside, why wouldn't we hold a player not being available against them?

[euroleague]

Taking these factors, and calling ‘15 Curry’s best year, is pretty absurd. Being injured in the postseason, and still making the Finals, is impressive in itself.

Sentiment aside, why wouldn't we hold a player not being available against them?

I am - I said already, that season would be top 3 without the injury, if he maintained production

[freethedevil]

Taking these factors, and calling ‘15 Curry’s best year, is pretty absurd. Being injured in the postseason, and still making the Finals, is impressive in itself.

Sentiment aside, why wouldn't we hold a player not being available against them?

I am - I said already, that season would be top 3 without the injury, if he maintained production

ah fair.