Peaks project update: #17

LA Bird · Post #1 » by **LA Bird** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:01 pm

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77
6) Tim Duncan 2002-03
7) Larry Bird 1985-86
8) Bill Russell 1963-64
9) Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94
10) Magic Johnson 1986-87
11) Kevin Garnett 2003-04
12) Julius Erving 1975-76
13) Bill Walton 1976-77
14) Oscar Robertson 1963-64
15) Stephen Curry 2015-16
16) Dwyane Wade 2008-09

Please include at least 1 sentence of reasoning for each of your 3 picks. A simple list of names will not be counted.
If repeating votes from previous rounds, copy and paste the reasoning because "see previous thread for explanation" will not be counted as a valid vote.

Please submit your votes by 3 am August 23 Eastern Time

THE VOTING SYSTEM:

Everyone gives their 1st-ballot choice (4.5 points), 2nd-ballot choice (3 points), and 3rd-ballot choice (2 points).
Highest point-total wins the round (24-hour run-off will then only be done in the unlikely event of a tie).
Players don't get credit for all the votes they receive in a round, we just count the votes (and the points) for the designated year.

So, you can use your 3 choices to vote for more than 1 season of the same player (if you think that the best 3 seasons among the players left belong all to the same player, nothing is stopping you from using all you 3 choices on that player), but you can't continue voting for other seasons of that player once he wins and gets his spot. The final list will be 1 season per player.

Thank you for your participation!

Spoiler:

E-Balla · Post #2 » by **E-Balla** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:39 pm

1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league.

3. 82 Moses Malone - Spoilered my original vote. New vote is 82 Moses. At first I was thinking his defense was too bad to place this highly especially with the loss in the 1st round but on second thought it's his best offensive season and the season where he did the most lifting for his team. I still think it pales compared to the carry job Wade did in 09 and Westbrook did in 17 but it's pretty damn good.

Spoiler:

No-more-rings · Post #3 » by **No-more-rings** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:37 pm

E-Balla wrote:1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league.

3. 11 Dirk - For the longest I had Dirk under all of Kobe/Wade/T-Mac but honestly revisiting it I place him over Kobe mainly because I don't think Kobe put it all together in a single year like Dirk did. It's hard enough to differentiate his different seasons in my mind but once I do I don't think any years he has holds up to Dirk leading a Mavs team that was very strong at full strength (+8-9 level) with good but not great support, and a great postseason run where he was only outplayed once. 09 is the closest Kobe had to putting it all together and he was clearly under Wade in my mind that year. Outside of that you have his bad series in 06 muddying that year, his Finals muddying 08, and 07 being what I'd call his most complete year at the end of the day but that's a year not as good as Dirk's by any objective measure in my own mind.

I'm not sure if I need to make a strong case for Dirk here, as his inclusion at this spot is obvious but I did feel the need to explain why he's over Kobe, the same way I'll probably explain why I dropped T-Mac to 22nd on my list instead of being 16th like I had him prior to researching this project.

Yeah Tmac is still in my mix for these spots, but it’s kind of hard to overlook how much of an outlier his peak was compared to his other years, and he never got out of the 1st round so it’s an unknown as to how he’d perform over a long playoff run. He doesn’t have the playoff clout that Wade, Kobe, or Dirk has.

Also when does Ewing get mentions for you? He’s possibly another guy though that’s peak is maybe a little outlierish.

No-more-rings · Post #4 » by **No-more-rings** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:42 pm

Haven’t really been swayed from D Robinson, so he’s going to be 1st for me most likely.

The next 2 will some mix of these guys:

Kobe
West
Tmac
Dirk
Ewing

Not casting anything official yet.

Post #5 » by **GeorgeMarcus** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:07 pm

This is simple. It's 94 or 95 D Rob. My vote is 95. +/- data (adjusted and otherwise) are so wildly in his favor. I'll add to my argument from before that D Rob man-handled Hakeem 30-12 and held him to 48.9 TS% in the 42 games they played outside of their playoff series. D Rob won 57% of his playoff games, compared to 52% by Hakeem. I've never seen people place so much disproportionate weight on a single playoff series.

I really don't think it's close. The list will look more and more inconsistent if he continues to drop given that Hakeem/KG both rank top 11.

cecilthesheep · Post #6 » by **cecilthesheep** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:10 pm

1. 1966 Jerry West - I believe West is in the top tier of offensive players remaining, and he has the advantage of being an excellent defender as well, knowing how to use his length perfectly. His prime was just before the era of advanced stats, so I can't make a detailed case for him with those, but watch him on film - he pops on both ends. One of the first ever real perimeter scoring forces, stupidly efficient for his time, and completely unstoppable with his high release and advanced handle under the old dribbling rules.

He also consistently elevated his game in the playoffs, increasing his volume without losing efficiency. 1966 is the intersection of his prime athleticism and his developing passing game. There's no one remaining who I'd rather have.

2. 1970 Jerry West - This is West's last really dominant scoring year, and he's fully developed his passing game by now. He's not quite the athlete he used to be as age and a few injuries have slowed him down, and this means he's not as much of a defensive impact player as he once was, but his offensive game might have peaked this year.

3. 1994 David Robinson - Robinson is a fascinating case. As a player I consider him very similar to Kevin Garnett - big man who can play like a guard, not an overwhelming individual scorer, possibly underrated defender even though his greatness on that end is acknowledged. Garnett gets his edge over Robinson because he's a much better passer and doesn't decline as much in the playoffs. But I don't think the gap is as huge as the conversation here might imply, with Garnett's name in the running since near the beginning and Robinson even now not a huge contender. He's a truly all-time defensive force imo, and that's mostly what I'm voting for him based on.

As far as the year, it's clearly either '94 or '95 imo, and I just think every indication gives '94 the edge except for awards and playoff performance. D-Rob was always miscast as a first offensive option; he didn't have great skills to create for himself compared to most 25+ per game scorers, and it showed in the playoffs. So his stats are a little underwhelming in both postseasons. Given that, I'll take the '94 RS.

Guys I'm thinking about for the next few spots: Kobe, Karl Malone, Barkley, Erving, Dirk, Nash.

liamliam1234 · Post #7 » by **liamliam1234** » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:33 pm

Picking up on last thread: pointing to Robinson’s regular seasons wins over Hakeem when Hakeem is maybe the most significant playoff elevator we have seen (well, alright, Reggie Miller has a case, lol) and Robinson the exact opposite is pretty poor reasoning given that all our problems are with his playoffs.

Counting playoff win rate is an even worse argument. Robinson won five playoff series during his prime and made it to the conference finals once. The fact he swept a few scrubs should not be praiseworthy.

Anyway, this round is likely going to Robinson, but West had enough support that I hope he can make a final push.

Jerry West was far and away the best playoff guard of his era. He was one of two top-tier guard scorers (Robertson) in a league utterly dominated by centres, and he played even better when it mattered most. He pushed Russell’s Celtics as regularly as Wilt did. As he aged, he became one of the league’s best passers. His relative efficiency was exemplary, especially in the playoffs; given how he performed with no spacing, translating his game to the modern era would be a breeze. Oh, and he was also the best defensive guard of the decade. His WOWY/CORP is exceptional, and he annually led top offences (which would dramatically decline without him), so even the advanced metrics fetishists have something they can endorse (and of course he tends to have great win share numbers, to whatever extent that counts). He deserves to be taken at this spot.

1. 1966 West
Probably scoring peak in combined volume and efficiency. Incredible playoffs. Not a huge CORP guy, but the fact he led over Wilt and Russell this early says a fair bit.

2. 1969 West
Passing has picked up. Regular season scoring take a bit of a dip to accommodate Wilt, but in the playoffs West takes over. Has a nuclear finals against the Celtics, capping in a wasted forty-point triple double because his coach was a stubborn idiot. I know he hates the award, but after this performance there is something right about him receiving Finals MVP. Also, again led in CORP.

3. 1970 West
Yet again led in CORP. Had maybe his best regular season: led league in scoring on 57.2% true shooting and added 7.5 assists per game. Playoffs were a bit less impressive, but still ridiculous: he essentially retained his scoring (slight efficiency dip to 55% true shooting), and in the Finals he averaged nearly 48 minutes per game (because of two overtimes, but still) and nine assists per game, with a 33/13 game and a 37/18 game. What a player.

Morb · Post #8 » by **Morb** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:37 am

1. T-Mac 2003 - GOAT Offensive Game, best OBPM in 25 years (from 1990 to 2015), lifted Orlando ORtg from 91.8 to 109.3 (+8% eFG), great body, versality, handles, underrated passer, low tovs, good series vs DRtg 99.9 (-3.7).
2. McAdoo 1975 - Scoring Machine, shooting 6'10, rebounds, historically great series vs DRtg 91.3 (-6.4). Wow.
3. Chris Paul 2008 - Top 3 PG Peak, assists, tempo, quickness, mid-range shot, low tovs, great playoffs.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Es4q0

Odinn21 · Post #9 » by **Odinn21** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:42 am

E-Balla wrote:3. 11 Dirk - For the longest I had Dirk under all of Kobe/Wade/T-Mac but honestly revisiting it I place him over Kobe mainly because I don't think Kobe put it all together in a single year like Dirk did. It's hard enough to differentiate his different seasons in my mind but once I do I don't think any years he has holds up to Dirk leading a Mavs team that was very strong at full strength (+8-9 level) with good but not great support, and a great postseason run where he was only outplayed once. 09 is the closest Kobe had to putting it all together and he was clearly under Wade in my mind that year. Outside of that you have his bad series in 06 muddying that year, his Finals muddying 08, and 07 being what I'd call his most complete year at the end of the day but that's a year not as good as Dirk's by any objective measure in my own mind.

I’m curious about your reasoning regarding picking 2011 over 2006 for Dirk.

Yeah, Dirk and the Mavs blew a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals but Dirk was better and more impactful in 2005-06 regular season. I think the gap is too big. His runs against the WC are pretty close. And in 2011 Finals, despite the win he didn’t pull a series performance like LeBron’s 2016 performance. So, I don’t see a gap big enough to make up for the regular season gap.

And these things bring me to the following comparison; 2005-06 Dirk vs. 2007-08 Kobe. Even though you wouldn’t agree with my opinions about 2006 Dirk vs. 2011 Dirk, I’d still like to hear your take on this comparison.

liamliam1234 · Post #10 » by **liamliam1234** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:15 am

2011 Dirk led in RAPM...

Post #11 » by **GeorgeMarcus** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:19 am

Odinn21 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:3. 11 Dirk - For the longest I had Dirk under all of Kobe/Wade/T-Mac but honestly revisiting it I place him over Kobe mainly because I don't think Kobe put it all together in a single year like Dirk did. It's hard enough to differentiate his different seasons in my mind but once I do I don't think any years he has holds up to Dirk leading a Mavs team that was very strong at full strength (+8-9 level) with good but not great support, and a great postseason run where he was only outplayed once. 09 is the closest Kobe had to putting it all together and he was clearly under Wade in my mind that year. Outside of that you have his bad series in 06 muddying that year, his Finals muddying 08, and 07 being what I'd call his most complete year at the end of the day but that's a year not as good as Dirk's by any objective measure in my own mind.

I’m curious about your reasoning regarding picking 2011 over 2006 for Dirk.

Yeah, Dirk and the Mavs blew a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals but Dirk was better and more impactful in 2005-06 regular season. I think the gap is too big. His runs against the WC are pretty close. And in 2011 Finals, despite the win he didn’t pull a series performance like LeBron’s 2016 performance. So, I don’t see a gap big enough to make up for the regular season gap.

And these things bring me to the following comparison; 2005-06 Dirk vs. 2007-08 Kobe. Even though you wouldn’t agree with my opinions about 2006 Dirk vs. 2011 Dirk, I’d still like to hear your take on this comparison.

I will say that based on E-Balla's assessment of D Rob, at least he's consistent. He places a lot more value on the playoffs than on the RS.

HHera187 · Post #12 » by **HHera187** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:47 am

N.1 JERRY WEST 1969
First year of his career with scoring and playmaking at the same level (or just below), best offensive player pre 1979 by far. All time level playoffs and goat level finals Vs Boston.

N.2 DAVID ROBINSON 1995
Unbelievable regular season: solid scoring (60 ts%), he leads the league in BPM and usual all time level defense en route for his MVP. Strong postseason, leading San Antonio to the WCF VS a superteam Houston.

N.3 JERRY WEST 1970
Simply the best skillset version of the best offensive player pre 3 point era.

Odinn21 · Post #13 » by **Odinn21** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:21 am

liamliam1234 wrote:2011 Dirk led in RAPM...

This is not an explanation or a reason.

According to RAPM Tim Duncan was twice as impactful in 2007 when its compared to 2003. (4.4/4th in 2003 and 8.8/1st in 2007)

If RAPM is the only criteria for you, you’re looking at these things in the wrong way.

liamliam1234 · Post #14 » by **liamliam1234** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:34 am

That is not how RAPM works, and that is a specific response to the claim that Dirk was more “impactful” in 2006. I never said the discussion ends there, but that alone is already more of an impact citation than you bothered to give.

Odinn21 · Post #15 » by **Odinn21** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:46 am

In 2005-06 regular season; the Mavs had 60 wins, 3rd best SRS with 5.96, 1st in ortg and 11 in drtg.
In 2010-11 regular season; the Mavs had 57 wins, 8th best SRS with 4.41, 8th in ortg and 8th in drtg.

Though the team was 2-7 without Dirk in 2011. And I don’t know how to reach with/without SRS values.
I made my comment about Dirk being more productive in a better outcome.

Also my example stands still about your approach.
RAPM is not (should not be) the only tool to determine what’s more impactful. You saying this is not how RAPM works has no meaning because I used an exact mirror situation about your response.

Edit: I think you shouldn’t point a finger about my approach since yours was no better. Anyways.

liamliam1234 · Post #16 » by **liamliam1234** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:04 am

If you have read any of my posts throughout the course of this project, it should be apparent how ludicrous it is to act as if RAPM is the sole way I measure impact.

And no, it was not a mirror. We can criticise the metric for its assessment of 2003 Duncan, but you do not do that by complaining about how his RAPM number was double in 2007.

You offering a more considered explanation after the fact does not retroactively change that your original assertion did not have a single piece of support behind it.

Strepbacter · Post #17 » by **Strepbacter** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:41 am

E-Balla wrote:1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league.

3. 11 Dirk - For the longest I had Dirk under all of Kobe/Wade/T-Mac but honestly revisiting it I place him over Kobe mainly because I don't think Kobe put it all together in a single year like Dirk did. It's hard enough to differentiate his different seasons in my mind but once I do I don't think any years he has holds up to Dirk leading a Mavs team that was very strong at full strength (+8-9 level) with good but not great support, and a great postseason run where he was only outplayed once. 09 is the closest Kobe had to putting it all together and he was clearly under Wade in my mind that year. Outside of that you have his bad series in 06 muddying that year, his Finals muddying 08, and 07 being what I'd call his most complete year at the end of the day but that's a year not as good as Dirk's by any objective measure in my own mind.

I'm not sure if I need to make a strong case for Dirk here, as his inclusion at this spot is obvious but I did feel the need to explain why he's over Kobe, the same way I'll probably explain why I dropped T-Mac to 22nd on my list instead of being 16th like I had him prior to researching this project.

I mean, what puts him over 09 Kobe?

--The 09 Lakers were one of the best teams ever, and I'd describe Kobe's support as very good but hardly special in all-time sense

--They won 65 gms with a 7.3 SRS and won a great conference by ten games. They were one of the best "healthy" teams ever:

2008 Lakers: +9.7
2009 Lakers: +9.0

2008-09 Lakers and Celtics. These teams were fantastic in an incredibly competitive league. The Celtics were +8.8 and +9.3 when healthy, and the Lakers +9.7 and +9.0 once Pau Gasol joined. Kevin Garnett’s injury robbed us of possibly the NBA’s greatest trilogy

Amazingly, of the top 40 healthy teams of all-time, seven are Pop’s Spurs teams. Five are Jordan’s Bulls. Four are Laker teams with Kobe Bryant.

The best NBA teams ever (according to Elo). The 09 Lakers ranked eighth all-time in overall ELO.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-warriors-are-in-the-goat-debate-but-they-blew-their-chance-to-end-it

*The 2011 Mavs rank #50

The 09 Lakers are higher than teams like the 92 Bulls, 91 Bulls, 83 Sixers,2014 Spurs, etc

The 09 Lakers had the [b]sixth greatest peak ELO Rating in NBA histroy at 1790.0:
[/b]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/last-years-warriors-werent-the-best-ever-but-this-years-might-be/

They completely dominated in the post-season:

Their post-season adjusted SRS of 12.7[/b] was the sixth highest since 1984: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-year-of-the-warriors

Here they're ahead of teams like the 85 Lakers, 87 Lakers, 08 Celtics, and 97 Bulls.

If you're impressed by Dirk leading the Mavs team to 8-9 pt level at full strength, what about Bryant anchoring one of the most dominant teams in history? I say that speaks volumes about his ability to build synergy with other talent. Hell, the 09 Kobe/Pau/Odom was the most dominant trio we have on record. The Kobe/Pau/Odom 09 trio (+17.5 in 3739 possessions) was the best we have recorded. This says amazing things about Kobe's portability, and his ability to scale with other talent.

The 09 Lakers were also very arguably the best passing team in the league. Their team passer rating was #1 in the league and #61 all-time: http://www.backpicks.com/2018/07/15/nba-passer-ratings-since-1978/

And can I get a source on the Mavs full strength SRS? According to Ben Taylor, no Mavs team with was ever that dominant:

Among the top-20 players on this list, Dirk is one of five to never play on an 8-SRS team during his prime.

They never struck lightning in a bottle during his decade-plus prime, but the ’03 and ’11 teams nearly crossed the 8-SRS mark when healthy, and four other full-strength squads weren’t too far behind

Source: http://www.backpicks.com/2018/02/26/backpicks-goat-18-dirk-nowitzki/#easy-footnote-10-7090

Otherwise I don't really see how Dirk was better.

In the RS he's at 23.0/7.0/2.6/0.5/0.6/23.4 PER/11.1 WS/.213 WS/48/3.8 BPM with a 61% TS (+7) and 118 (+11) ORTG in 73 gms
Bryant was at 26.8/5.2/4.9/1.5/0.5/24.4 PER/12.7 WS/.206 WS/48/4.5 BPM with a 56.4% TS (+1.7) and a 115 ORTG (+7) in 82 games

* Dirk has better impact metrics, but Bryant beats him almost across in the box-score metrics (though how much that should matter...) and most importantly he has a fairly significant advantage in health (yes, I think those nine extra games makes a difference when you're talking about guys this close...)

Then the post-season comes around and I don't see how Dirk had a better run at all.

*He puts up 27.7/8.1/2.5/0.6/0.6/25.2 PER/3.6 WS/.210 WS/48/3.8 BPM on 60.9% TS (+7.9 relative to opp avg) and a 115 ORTG (+9 relative to opp avg)
*Kobe puts 30.2/5.3/5.5/1.7/0.9/26.8 PER/4.7 WS/.238 WS/48/7.5 BPM on 56.4% TS (+3.5) and a 117 ORTG (+12)
* By the raw numbers Bryant is ahead in volume, APG, stls, blks, turnovers, MPG
*By the advanced box-score numbers he's ahead in PER/WS/WS48/BPM/VORP/USG/AST%/STL%/BLK% and ORTG
*Dirk is a slightly better scorer. He has a fairly noticeable lead in scoring efficiency, but Bryant scores at a higher per-game clip, and they're Per 100 scoring rate is even
*Kobe is easily more efficient OVERALL. He has a much lower turnover rate (8.7% to Dirk's 12.0%) AND a higher OREB% (2.4% to Dirk's 1.8%) which is reflected in their individual ORTG. 117 (+12) for Kobe vs 115 (+9) for Dirk
*Kobe crushes him as a passer. This is evident on tape and in the box-score. 5.5 APG/26.0% AST% vs 2.6/13%...(yes, I know APG isn't a perfect measure of passing but Kobe is also way ahead in passer rating so...
*If you place a lot of stock in Finals performances...I mean, it's not even close.
32.4/5.6/7.4/1.4/1.4/34.7% AST%/38% USG/9.4% TOV rate/111 ORTG (+9)/52.5% TS (+1.6) vs
26.0/9.7/2.0/0.7/0.7/10.6% AST%/33% USG/10.5% TOV rate/105 ORTG (+1)/53.7% TS (+1.9)
Kobe was much more efficient. He carried a bigger load and had a much higher scorer rate with virtually zero difference in scoring efficiency, obliterates Dirk as a passer, has a higher STL%, way higher BLK%, higher OREB%, took much better care of the ball,etc etc. I mean, it's close at all.

Moving on to the impact stuff...

Kobe had the higher recorded post-season +/- overall

Curry 15 - 166
Ginobili 14 - 181
James 13 - 129
James 12 - 199
Dirk 11 - 170
Kobe 10 - 98
Kobe 09 - 181
Garnett 08 - 184
Duncan 07 - 82
Wade 06 - 134
Duncan 03 - 172
Shaq 02 - 118
Shaq 01 - 186
[b]Kobe 01 - 213

Dirk was #1 in post-season RAPM. Kobe was #2 in post-season RAPM, but on a far stronger team
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2008-09/playoffs/
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/season/2010-11/playoffs/

+16 post-season on/off for Dirk vs +12 for Kobe, but, again, one guy is doing his thing on one of the most dominant post-season teams ever.

Just moving on from the Dirk/Kobe stuff for a second...I really don't see how 09 isn't a complete season from Kobe. That's just a bizarre statement IMO. I mean, that season would have EASILY been #1 in 2019.

--Great RS
--Perfect health
--Threw up an all-time great post-season run and capped it off with an all-time great Finals performance
--Anchored and was far and away the best player on a historically dominant team (See Above^)
--Monster box-score numbers when it mattered
--ELITE post-season overall post-season efficiency
--Huge impact metrics. In the RS he's tied for #4 in RAPM (with Wade...) at +6.2, and two of the guys ahead aren't even in the same ballpark ITO minutes/role/health. By minute-adjusted RAPM he's only behind Bron (tied with Wade): https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/rapm
#2 in post-season RAPM
+11 RS on/off, +12 PS on/off
-- peak Bryant was one of the most efficient players in the entire league at spotting up and coming off screens according the synergy (one reason he fit so so well next to Pau/Odom and on great passing teams):

Bryant also ranked among the best last season in spot-up jumpers (1.11 points per possession versus .90 five years ago) and in coming off of screens (1.14 in 2008-9, versus .81 in 2004-5 when the Lakers were 34-48).

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/24/sports/basketball/24kobe.html

--Anchored the best passing team in basketball
---Anchored the most dominant trio we have recorded
--Created perfect synergy and fit next to his stars
--Positive on defense. Positive DRAPM, 90% percentile in isolation and post-defense according to synergy, second best perimeter defender on a -6.0 post-season defense, and threw up the best defensive series of his career in the Finals

I could go on but I'll stop here. Seriously tho..what exactly makes his season "not complete". Honestly, what more do you want? It's going to be a total joke when he finishes outside the top twenty but this is the PC board so...

No-more-rings · Post #18 » by **No-more-rings** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 am

If you flip the results of the 06 and 11 finals, or even make the outcome the same i could pretty much guarantee no one or very few would have 11 Dirk ahead of 06 Dirk.

HHera187 · Post #19 » by **HHera187** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:10 am

RAPM is very noisy in a 1 year sample, 3 or 5 years of data are good.

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E-Balla · Post #20 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:03 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
E-Balla wrote:1. 83 Moses Malone - The short version is that Moses was the best player in the league, on an historically great team, with great +/- estimates, and a gamebreaking ability on the offensive boards (averaged 6.5 offensive rebounds a game from 79 to 83). The gap between him and Curry who has that same argument (replace rebounding with 3 point shooting) is that outside of that one amazing ability Moses was still well above average at everything else. His jumper, defense (in 83 at least), and post game was already solid. His one weakness was his weak passing ability but it didn't hinder his chance to lead great or mediocre teams so I don't know how much it concerns me.

2. 17 Russell Westbrook - I'm on record since 2017 saying next to 09 LeBron this is the best season I've seen since I've watched basketball religiously. The short version here is that he averaged a 30 point triple double, made 200 three pointers, was the most clutch player ever (sidebar but this is one of my favorite posts in RealGM history, and it perfectly encapsulates exactly how clutch he was), and averaged 37/12/11 in the playoffs while destroying Houston, only losing because his team was the worst team I've ever seen in the playoffs without him on the floor. Unlike many here he had to also overcome horrible fitting teammates (they had the worst 3 point percentage in the league outside of him) and the worst coach in the league.

3. 11 Dirk - For the longest I had Dirk under all of Kobe/Wade/T-Mac but honestly revisiting it I place him over Kobe mainly because I don't think Kobe put it all together in a single year like Dirk did. It's hard enough to differentiate his different seasons in my mind but once I do I don't think any years he has holds up to Dirk leading a Mavs team that was very strong at full strength (+8-9 level) with good but not great support, and a great postseason run where he was only outplayed once. 09 is the closest Kobe had to putting it all together and he was clearly under Wade in my mind that year. Outside of that you have his bad series in 06 muddying that year, his Finals muddying 08, and 07 being what I'd call his most complete year at the end of the day but that's a year not as good as Dirk's by any objective measure in my own mind.

I'm not sure if I need to make a strong case for Dirk here, as his inclusion at this spot is obvious but I did feel the need to explain why he's over Kobe, the same way I'll probably explain why I dropped T-Mac to 22nd on my list instead of being 16th like I had him prior to researching this project.

Yeah Tmac is still in my mix for these spots, but it’s kind of hard to overlook how much of an outlier his peak was compared to his other years, and he never got out of the 1st round so it’s an unknown as to how he’d perform over a long playoff run. He doesn’t have the playoff clout that Wade, Kobe, or Dirk has.

Also when does Ewing get mentions for you? He’s possibly another guy though that’s peak is maybe a little outlierish.

I don't think they're outlier seasons. I mean I have Russ 17 on my vote list already. Ewing legitimately got better up until then, and then his knees took away his athleticism rapidly. McGrady got better up until his back became too much of an issue to overcome. That's just how it works.

I also have no doubts of Tracy's postseason play, just doubts of his impact when compared to Wade and Kobe in similar team situations.