The 2019-2020 LeBron James thread

[picko]

Maybe they are just surprised by the volume of his assists, which is understandable since averaging 11.1 assists is almost 4 standard deviations above his career average. The probability of a career 7.3 apg player, with LeBron's career consistency, averaging 11.1 apg across a season is practically zero (about 1 in 15,000 to be more specific).

You are using statistics wrong. Practically zero . Cmon.

First off, Plenty of players have had streaks of averaging 11 Assists for a 13 game run. Remember, this is only 13 games. A very small sample size.

2nd, James Harden is a career 6.2 Assists per game player. He averaged 11.2 Assists per game once in a season.

I don't think you understand the relationship between mean, standard deviation and probability. And until you do I'd avoid accusing someone of 'using statistics wrong'.

'LeBron's career consistency' refers to the standard deviation of assists per game across LeBron's career. His standard deviation is incredibly low compared with most players. Therefore large deviations from his average are highly unusual for an entire season. And of course my quick calculations were based on season probabilities, not on small in-season samples, of which variation can be much greater.

LeBron James (per 100 possessions; assists per game)

Career: 9.8
St Dev: 1.3

Current: 15.2
(Current - career)/St Dev = 4.1

James Harden (per 100 possessions; assists per game; only Rockets)

Career: 10.1
St Dev: 2.3

Peak: 14.8
(Current - career)/St Dev = 2

The probability of an event with a St Dev of 2 occurring is about 1/22. The probability of an event with a St Dev of 4 occurring is about 1/15000. Of course in a league with so many players, events with a St Dev of 2 or 4 happen more often than you'd think.

Nevertheless, the probability of LeBron averaging 11 assists per game across an entire season is incredibly low. It'd be a huge outlier given what we've seen from him in his previous 16-seasons. It'd also be a much greater outlier than James Harden doing it.

[colts18]

Maybe they are just surprised by the volume of his assists, which is understandable since averaging 11.1 assists is almost 4 standard deviations above his career average. The probability of a career 7.3 apg player, with LeBron's career consistency, averaging 11.1 apg across a season is practically zero (about 1 in 15,000 to be more specific).

You are using statistics wrong. Practically zero . Cmon.

First off, Plenty of players have had streaks of averaging 11 Assists for a 13 game run. Remember, this is only 13 games. A very small sample size.

2nd, James Harden is a career 6.2 Assists per game player. He averaged 11.2 Assists per game once in a season.

I don't think you understand the relationship between mean, standard deviation and probability. And until you do I'd avoid accusing someone of 'using statistics wrong'.

I'm well aware of what Standard deviation is. I happen to also know that 13 game sample sizes are near meaningless. You can't compare a 13 game sample to full season results.

[yoyoboy]

You are using statistics wrong. Practically zero . Cmon.

First off, Plenty of players have had streaks of averaging 11 Assists for a 13 game run. Remember, this is only 13 games. A very small sample size.

2nd, James Harden is a career 6.2 Assists per game player. He averaged 11.2 Assists per game once in a season.

I don't think you understand the relationship between mean, standard deviation and probability. And until you do I'd avoid accusing someone of 'using statistics wrong'.

I'm well aware of what Standard deviation is. I happen to also know that 13 game sample sizes are near meaningless. You can't compare a 13 game sample to full season results.

Even beyond that, that kind of statistical application assumes that this LeBron James is the same LeBron he’s always been throughout his career. What’s the probability that the LeBron who’s put up 11 assists per game or more in 15% of his 1200+ career games (not an exact figure, just spitballing) up until this point would be able to average 11 per game over an 82 game stretch now? It makes sense why the answer to that would be 1 in 15,000 without taking into account that LeBron’s improved as a passer as his career has gone on, pace has gone up, he’s taking more of a “point” role this year, there’s a lack of playmakers on the roster, and he’s surrounded by finishers like Davis, Dwight, and McGee which he hasn’t always had access to.

[Blackmill]

Maybe they are just surprised by the volume of his assists, which is understandable since averaging 11.1 assists is almost 4 standard deviations above his career average. The probability of a career 7.3 apg player, with LeBron's career consistency, averaging 11.1 apg across a season is practically zero (about 1 in 15,000 to be more specific).

You are using statistics wrong. Practically zero . Cmon.

First off, Plenty of players have had streaks of averaging 11 Assists for a 13 game run. Remember, this is only 13 games. A very small sample size.

2nd, James Harden is a career 6.2 Assists per game player. He averaged 11.2 Assists per game once in a season.

I don't think you understand the relationship between mean, standard deviation and probability. And until you do I'd avoid accusing someone of 'using statistics wrong'.

'LeBron's career consistency' refers to the standard deviation of assists per game across LeBron's career. His standard deviation is incredibly low compared with most players. Therefore large deviations from his average are highly unusual for an entire season. And of course my quick calculations were based on season probabilities, not on small in-season samples, of which variation can be much greater.

LeBron James (per 100 possessions; assists per game)

Career: 9.8
St Dev: 1.3

Current: 15.2
(Current - career)/St Dev = 4.1

James Harden (per 100 possessions; assists per game; only Rockets)

Career: 10.1
St Dev: 2.3

Peak: 14.8
(Current - career)/St Dev = 2

The probability of an event with a St Dev of 2 occurring is about 1/22. The probability of an event with a St Dev of 4 occurring is about 1/15000. Of course in a league with so many players, events with a St Dev of 2 or 4 happen more often than you'd think.

Nevertheless, the probability of LeBron averaging 11 assists per game across an entire season is incredibly low. It'd be a huge outlier given what we've seen from him in his previous 16-seasons. It'd also be a much greater outlier than James Harden doing it.

Edit: yoyoboy beat me to it and provided a nice alternative explanation grounded in similar logic.

I just don't think you can make this conclusion. Why? You are in fact using a small sample. The sample size here is the number of full seasons LeBron has played. That is, 16 seasons. Even if NBA seasons consisted of ten billion games, you would still have a small sample, since there are at least two sources of noise:

(1) The noisiness of LeBron's observed mean assists per 100 for a season, given the underlying distribution, which is removed by LeBron playing many games per season.

(2) The noisiness of LeBron's true mean assists per 100 for a season, which is conditional on many factors and varying between seasons, and may be reduced by him playing a large number of seasons.

Now, can (2) inject a lot of noise into the observations? Absolutely. It is very possible to come up with a mixture of simple distributions, and realistic but small sample (i.e. probability of sample isn't "incredibly low" and n=16), where at least one observation is many empirical standard deviations from the mean.

[Mos_Heat]

Lakers need a stretch big. Someone like, I don't know, MORITZ WAGNER

[Mos_Heat]

He’s one of the more prominent one I’ve heard voice an opinion like that. But I was mainly referring to general twitter/ESPN hype about Lebron’s passing, like they are amazed he’s leading the league in assists and that they didn’t realize he had this level of passing in him.

My opinion of Bill Simmons' basketball analysis has sharply declined in recent years. Back in the day, I appreciated that he was one of the few guys who was willing to think outside the box, but at some point, he stopped evolving. I now find his analysis pretty hard to listen to. He's obsessed with per-game numbers and constantly brings up stuff that no one cares about anymore, like the 50/40/90 club. I don't mean to sound like a douche... There's definitely a place for his viewpoint, but I just don't enjoy it as much as I used to.

What did Simmons say about Lebron's passing?

"He's a good passer, but is he super-duper passer".

That's a quote.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Maybe they are just surprised by the volume of his assists, which is understandable since averaging 11.1 assists is almost 4 standard deviations above his career average. The probability of a career 7.3 apg player, with LeBron's career consistency, averaging 11.1 apg across a season is practically zero (about 1 in 15,000 to be more specific).

You are using statistics wrong. Practically zero . Cmon.

First off, Plenty of players have had streaks of averaging 11 Assists for a 13 game run. Remember, this is only 13 games. A very small sample size.

2nd, James Harden is a career 6.2 Assists per game player. He averaged 11.2 Assists per game once in a season.

Mans really said 4 standard deviations above average and said “1/15000 to be more specific” lmao

[nzahir]

Lakers need a stretch big. Someone like, I don't know, MORITZ WAGNER

The way we handled our cap space **** us a bit

No need to have 3 top guys, when you already have 2, why not get a great supporting cast?

Third guy usually is marginalized anyways.

[nzahir]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

[Goudelock]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

I would kill for Monte Morris or DJ Augustin.

[nzahir]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

I would kill for Monte Morris or DJ Augustin.

What about other 3?

I think Forbes may be best overall player and fit (can shoot the ball well and create a bit). But I don't know if Pop works with us

I think DJ is very possible. Cook, Boogie (waived), 2nd, and cash

Monte is tougher. THT, Cook, 2nd, cash for Morris and Cancar (salary filler). Not sure if enough

Maybe try to somehow get another second by moving Troy for a team who wants a floor space

[Heej]

My opinion of Bill Simmons' basketball analysis has sharply declined in recent years. Back in the day, I appreciated that he was one of the few guys who was willing to think outside the box, but at some point, he stopped evolving. I now find his analysis pretty hard to listen to. He's obsessed with per-game numbers and constantly brings up stuff that no one cares about anymore, like the 50/40/90 club. I don't mean to sound like a douche... There's definitely a place for his viewpoint, but I just don't enjoy it as much as I used to.

What did Simmons say about Lebron's passing?

"He's a good passer, but is he super-duper passer".

That's a quote.

Lool his LeBron hate has gotten so bad now that he's gotten KD on his podcast and feels compelled to White Knight his legacy that Simmons' subreddit has basically full on mutinied against him in regards to his LeBron opinions. Bron may as well have slept with his wife with the way he talks about him

I think in 2018 when he got full time duties again on the ball his vision took a leap and never looked back. It's almost like he crossed some possession threshold where all his accumulated experience just congealed into pristine passing IQ. He's all time level now when it comes to misdirecting defenses with his eyes, and his touch and accuracy have only improved. I can't tell whether his velocity has decreased or increased though. Feel like it's the latter somehow

[Dupp]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

If the spurs take derozen over Ingram and co to spite LA no way they help them even a little.

Agreed Augustin would be good.

[nzahir]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

If the spurs take derozen over Ingram and co to spite LA no way they help them even a little.

Agreed Augustin would be good.

Only thing with DJ is the poor defense.

I have lost hope on finding a better pg combo guard than Avery to close out games if we can't get DJ. Just doesn't seem like it will happen unfortunately.

Avery has been good on D, but we need spacing too and someone who can create when its coming down the wire

[Colbinii]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

Monte Morris is way to good.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Colbinii]

Lakers need a stretch big. Someone like, I don't know, MORITZ WAGNER

You mean the best defender in the league?

#1 in Defensive RAPTOR

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Dupp]

Chasing kawhi was a bad idea. Kawhi totally screwed the lakers intentionally too. He was always going to the clippers but kept the lakers feeling like they had a chance and waited until all the free agents were gone basically.

Boss gm move

[Baski]

Does anyone think Lebron is underrated (by casuals) as a passer? I really think he’s on the short list of greatest passers of all time, and I don’t think a lot of people realize or would agree with that.

I think this topic is a good litmus test for evaluating the level of one’s basketball knowledge. If I hear someone discredit LeBron’s passing in anyway then I automatically assume they are a casual.

It’s like people are surprised he’s leading the league in assists. If you’ve been watching this guy at all you’d realize he has been capable of this, really for his whole career.

It gives them an excuse to discredit him with the "Jack of all trades master of none" qualifier.

[Mos_Heat]

When Lebron sits, the team seems to die on offense. So we need a better backup pg. One who can also shoot the ball a little

Only guys really coming to mind who are somewhat possible:
JJ Barea
Monte Morris
Dj Augustin
Patty Mills or Bryn Forbes (I dont think spurs do it, but who knows)

If the spurs take derozen over Ingram and co to spite LA no way they help them even a little.

Agreed Augustin would be good.

Only thing with DJ is the poor defense.

I have lost hope on finding a better pg combo guard than Avery to close out games if we can't get DJ. Just doesn't seem like it will happen unfortunately.

Not this season

[Mos_Heat]

Lakers need a stretch big. Someone like, I don't know, MORITZ WAGNER

You mean the best defender in the league?

#1 in Defensive RAPTOR

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

eh, he's a solid defender, but I guess I'm not a RAPTOR guy. Especially on defense