The James Harden Thread (2019-20)

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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#201 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:46 pm

bleeds_purple wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
bleeds_purple wrote:
Did you actually watch the game or are you just quoting random numbers and passing that off and some type of insight?


might be careful there considering your post above is simply your own personal conjecture about what shots a team can and can't get in a playoff game. My favorite part was your assertion that teams will mostly have to take bad shots.


If you can't see the different between "hey, this number says your wrong" and "hey, based on my 25 years of watching this sport, and this particular game start to finish" then I can't help you, bud.



If you have been watching NBA playoff games for 25 years and have concluded that teams mostly have to take bad shots, then I would suggest your experience isn't worth nearly as much as you think it is.

Which isn't a shot at you specifically. Almost everyone on this board badly overrates their own eyetest ability. But you are highly unlikely to be qualified enough to reach the kind of conclusions you are based solely on watching the games.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#202 » by bleeds_purple » Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:50 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
bleeds_purple wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
might be careful there considering your post above is simply your own personal conjecture about what shots a team can and can't get in a playoff game. My favorite part was your assertion that teams will mostly have to take bad shots.


If you can't see the different between "hey, this number says your wrong" and "hey, based on my 25 years of watching this sport, and this particular game start to finish" then I can't help you, bud.



If you have been watching NBA playoff games for 25 years and have concluded that teams mostly have to take bad shots, then I would suggest your experience isn't worth nearly as much as you think it is.

Which isn't a shot at you specifically. Almost everyone on this board badly overrates their own eyetest ability. But you are highly unlikely to be qualified enough to reach the kind of conclusions you are based solely on watching the games.


You're straw-manning what I said. It's not like 100% of shots will be bad but whatever % you want to peg it at significantly goes up in the playoffs, goes up more each round, and especially goes up at the end of close games. Offenses slow down and this is where superstars shine because they can say "give me the damn ball and get out of the way." You can go rewatch the 4th quarter of the 2016 Finals for an example.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#203 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:57 pm

bleeds_purple wrote:
You're straw-manning what I said. It's not like 100% of shots will be bad but whatever % you want to peg it at significantly goes up each round and especially goes up at the end of close games. Offenses slow down and this is where superstars shine because they can say "give me the damn ball and get out of the way." You can go rewatch the 4th quarter of the 2016 Finals for an example.


I went with literally what you said. If you meant something else, you should have said what you meant. It also definitely doesn't automatically go up each round. This isn't a video game where the boss is harder each level. Matchups always matter, how good a defense a team plays matters, a coaches ability to gameplan against you always matters.

Obviously iso superstars are valuable in the playoffs. Guess who is arguably the best iso superstar in the game right now? I'm really struggling to follow your position other than I don't like James Harden so I am going to hunt around for ways to discredit him. Maybe you can provide something more substantive?
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#204 » by bleeds_purple » Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:01 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
bleeds_purple wrote:
You're straw-manning what I said. It's not like 100% of shots will be bad but whatever % you want to peg it at significantly goes up each round and especially goes up at the end of close games. Offenses slow down and this is where superstars shine because they can say "give me the damn ball and get out of the way." You can go rewatch the 4th quarter of the 2016 Finals for an example.


I went with literally what you said. If you meant something else, you should have said what you meant. It also definitely doesn't automatically go up each round. This isn't a video game where the boss is harder each level. Matchups always matter, how good a defense a team plays matters, a coaches ability to gameplan against you always matters.

Obviously iso superstars are valuable in the playoffs. Guess who is arguably the best iso superstar in the game right now? I'm really struggling to follow your position other than I don't like James Harden so I am going to hunt around for ways to discredit him. Maybe you can provide something more substantive?


When in the blue hell did I discredit Harden. In fact, this is what I wrote about him:

bleeds_purple wrote:Harden is on an absolute tear. Kings played box-and-one on him all game. He was getting double and triple teamed almost every play and he still dropped 27. Would have dropped 50 in that game had we not played that gimmick defense. He simply cannot be defended straight up at this point.


Regarding the bold, notice how I also wrote:

bleeds_purple wrote:It's the "worst" shot until you realize that in the deeper rounds, against good defensive teams, you are forced to take mostly bad shots especially at the end of a close game. When that time comes, you have to have diversity in your offensive attack.


If there's anyone I'm discrediting it's the Houston coaching staff and front office who's basketball analysis appears to be similar to "hey, we have nice numbers must be good" which is ironically similar to the first guy who responded to me. Pringles, is that you?
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#205 » by thekdog34 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:25 pm

An interesting thing this year is he's upped his free throws without gimmicks like the Lou Williams move. He's legitimately getting fouled a lot more this year.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#206 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Dec 14, 2019 5:49 pm

The idea of Harden becoming an all-time elite mid range scorer is fantasy unfortunately. If he had the combination of length/hops of someone like Kawhi, MJ or Kobe or Dirk’s height it could be a reasonable suggestion but if he tries to be a volume mid range scorer someone like Iguodala will just eat his lunch.

Given his physical profile the step back is an incredible weapon for him to develop. He needs to clear space because he can’t just bring the ball as high as Kawhi can where no one can block it.

Harden is LeBron-esque in his ability to improve every year like clockwork. He shot 35% from 3 last postseason, his performance when he was younger doesn’t rule out him being able to be excellent with the step back as his primary weapon
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#207 » by thekdog34 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:29 pm

Harden is shooting mid 40% on 3-10 feet. Last two years shot 44% from 10-16 ft. That's approaching dirk mid-range levels. It's beyond 16 feet where he can't match dirk. But harden takes a lot more shots at the rim.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#208 » by 90sAllDecade » Sat Dec 14, 2019 6:52 pm

Image

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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#209 » by limbo » Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:31 pm

You guys remember a couple of years ago when everybody was knob-riding Curry for being by far the greatest shooter of all-time and how he's going to shatter every 3PT record easily?

When Harden retires, he will finish #1 in 3P makes in NBA history. And his makes will be, on average, 25-30% less assisted compared to Curry (and at their PEAK, Curry was assisted on 55% of his made threes, Harden is currently assisted on 17% of his made threes)

aka Harden = GOAT shooter

Good day, gentlemen. :lol:
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#210 » by thekdog34 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:25 pm

limbo wrote:You guys remember a couple of years ago when everybody was knob-riding Curry for being by far the greatest shooter of all-time and how he's going to shatter every 3PT record easily?

When Harden retires, he will finish #1 in 3P makes in NBA history. And his makes will be, on average, 25-30% less assisted compared to Curry (and at their PEAK, Curry was assisted on 55% of his made threes, Harden is currently assisted on 17% of his made threes)

aka Harden = GOAT shooter

Good day, gentlemen. :lol:


Funny, but why does assisted matter?
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#211 » by limbo » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:37 pm

thekdog34 wrote:Funny, but why does assisted matter?


The difficulty of the average shot you take. It's easier to shoot a higher % if teammates assist you by taking away defensive attention, assist you in getting open and then also serve you the basketball on a platter.

I'm not trying to diminish guys who are elite at using teammates to get themselves open in the half-court and elite at catch and shooting, it's a skill in itself, but it's way easier to be efficient in that role than in Harden's role.

How many guys do we know in NBA history who play off-ball, spot up in open areas, run around screens and average over 40% on a decent volume. Quite a few. I mean, Harden himself was like 39% on 5 attempts while in OKC... Obviously there's guys that are SUPER elite in this type of role ala Korver, Thompson, but by and large, it's an easier role a plethora of players around the league can perform to an elite level.

How many guys do we know in NBA history that average 40 ppg on 64%TS while being the main catalyst on their team and receiving the most defensive attention, and receiving the least assistance? One. It's Harden.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#212 » by K_chile22 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:38 pm

limbo wrote:You guys remember a couple of years ago when everybody was knob-riding Curry for being by far the greatest shooter of all-time and how he's going to shatter every 3PT record easily?

When Harden retires, he will finish #1 in 3P makes in NBA history. And his makes will be, on average, 25-30% less assisted compared to Curry (and at their PEAK, Curry was assisted on 55% of his made threes, Harden is currently assisted on 17% of his made threes)

aka Harden = GOAT shooter

Good day, gentlemen.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#213 » by limbo » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:47 pm

Go read the thread i opened on the General forum. I don't wanna waste my thing explaining the same thing.

Generally speaking, Curry doesn't really separate himself from Harden as a 2P and FT shooter. He has marginally better efficiency, but WAY LESS volume + a team that facilitated a higher amount of open/assisted shots for him and a team that took more defensive pressure away from him in general.

Actually, you can make an argument Harden is a better FT shooter. What is more impressive, 88% on 14 attempts or 91% 6 attempts? It's harder to maintain volume at a higher efficiency + a fatigue factor. You can dismiss fatigue if you want, but i generally believe is very relevant to efficiency. If you're not running on fumes out there, it's easier to shoot efficiently. You think Curry could do what Harden does all-around offensively, and then shoot 45% from three and 92% on 14 FT's? I don't think so.

The only area he separates himself from Harden is 3P, but even then same thing applies as above. LESSER volume and more of his shots were generated by having a better team.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#214 » by thekdog34 » Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:41 am

limbo wrote:
thekdog34 wrote:Funny, but why does assisted matter?


The difficulty of the average shot you take. It's easier to shoot a higher % if teammates assist you by taking away defensive attention, assist you in getting open and then also serve you the basketball on a platter.

I'm not trying to diminish guys who are elite at using teammates to get themselves open in the half-court and elite at catch and shooting, it's a skill in itself, but it's way easier to be efficient in that role than in Harden's role.

How many guys do we know in NBA history who play off-ball, spot up in open areas, run around screens and average over 40% on a decent volume. Quite a few. I mean, Harden himself was like 39% on 5 attempts while in OKC... Obviously there's guys that are SUPER elite in this type of role ala Korver, Thompson, but by and large, it's an easier role a plethora of players around the league can perform to an elite level.

How many guys do we know in NBA history that average 40 ppg on 64%TS while being the main catalyst on their team and receiving the most defensive attention, and receiving the least assistance? One. It's Harden.


I agree it's an impressive individual skill. Harden has to be one of the best ever at it, if not the best.

I'm just not sure it's an impactful way to play. After all he's a career 33% playoff 3pt shooter and several of the past few playoffs can barely get to 30%.

As far as guys who can be very efficient while drawing a lot of attention, there are many. Not sure how it can be argued that harden has little assistance though.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#215 » by K_chile22 » Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:26 am

Gotta admit, MDA running the entire team into the ground with these 8 man rotations in the regular season is getting pretty old. Offensive version of Thibs minus the yelling
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#216 » by K_chile22 » Fri Dec 20, 2019 3:18 pm

Odd trend that keeps growing
Lineups with Harden, Westbrook, Tucker, Capela and one of McLemore or House are +14.6 per 100 (98th percentile), w/ elite defense at 94.6 def rating (99th percentile) and middling offense at 109.1 off rating (49th percentile). Not what you'd expect, but pretty solid sample now (767 pos)
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#217 » by TroubleS0me » Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:24 am

only 1 FREE THROW ATTEMPT !! vs Warriors
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#218 » by Baski » Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:50 pm

limbo wrote:You guys remember a couple of years ago when everybody was knob-riding Curry for being by far the greatest shooter of all-time and how he's going to shatter every 3PT record easily?

When Harden retires, he will finish #1 in 3P makes in NBA history. And his makes will be, on average, 25-30% less assisted compared to Curry (and at their PEAK, Curry was assisted on 55% of his made threes, Harden is currently assisted on 17% of his made threes)

aka Harden = GOAT shooter

Good day, gentlemen. :lol:

Wait a minute why are you so sure Harden is going to retire with the most makes? They both have like 8 more years left in them.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#219 » by limbo » Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:08 pm

Baski wrote:Wait a minute why are you so sure Harden is going to retire with the most makes? They both have like 8 more years left in them.


Curry having 8 more years? Not saying it's impossible but we'll see about that.

Anyway, when this season is finished Harden will be relatively close to Curry in all-time 3PM. After that i'm projecting Harden having a longer career.

Harden''s a year younger and Curry can't stay healthy.
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Re: The James Harden Thread (2019-20) 

Post#220 » by GSP » Wed Jan 1, 2020 4:09 am

Eric Gordon is back.

Houston is fully healthy now. Lets see how they look. This Hartenstein kid looks promising. They have alot of depth right now from guards to wings and possibly bigs. No Warriors this year either so no more excuses in the playoffs

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