When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch?

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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#21 » by Baski » Thu Sep 5, 2019 11:41 pm

Ainosterhaspie wrote:Only LeBron stopped hitting 30 a few years ago. Current bumps in nember of guys hitting that number aren't reflective of LeBron's era. The offensive uptick is happening just as he's leaving his prime. It may be helping him sustain nice raw numbers as he ages, but it isn't why he put up the numbers he did in his prime years.

Definitely Lebron is a cut above these other guys playing today. That comment is referring to clearly inferior players like Anthony Davis, Giannis and Westbrook achieving and knocking on the door of 30 PERs when it's obvious they're not as good as prime Lebron was.
With the advent of "position-less" basketball and more focus on efficiency, it's going to get to a point where you'll have 1 30 PER every season with a bunch of guys hovering around 28-29.9
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#22 » by DatAsh » Fri Sep 6, 2019 12:27 am

Really wish Jordan and Lebron fans could find more common ground. Both are arguably the best ever.

I would agree that stats are inflated today, but I really only think that applies to the last few years. Most of Lebron's career is outside of that. If anything, I would say Jordan's stats are slightly more inflated overall, although I do agree his TS% would probably be 3-4% points higher today due to the spacing and 3 ball.

PER is heavily biased in favor of Jordan, as it's heavily biased in favor of volume scoring. The creator of the stat basically admits this. It's basically the perfect stat to make Jordan look amazing.

BPM and VORP are heavily biased in favor of Lebron, as it's based on modern impact data that is biased in favor of defensive rebounding and assists. BPM and VORP are almost useless for comparing players prior to 2001 to players after 2001.

Best to just look at the overall stats, and they're damn close. Either could be argued as the best 4 year statistical runs ever, imo.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#23 » by bledredwine » Fri Sep 6, 2019 12:36 am

DatAsh wrote:Really wish Jordan and Lebron fans could find more common ground. Both are arguably the best ever.

I would agree that stats are inflated today, but I really only think that applies to the last few years. Most of Lebron's career is outside of that. If anything, I would say Jordan's stats are slightly more inflated overall, although I do agree his TS% would probably be 3-4% points higher today due to the spacing and 3 ball.

PER is heavily biased in favor of Jordan, as it's heavily biased in favor of volume scoring. The creator of the stat basically admits this. It's basically the perfect stat to make Jordan look amazing.

BPM and VORP are heavily biased in favor of Lebron, as it's based on modern impact data that is biased in favor of defensive rebounding and assists. BPM and VORP are almost useless for comparing players prior to 2001 to players after 2001.

Best to just look at the overall stats, and they're damn close. Either could be argued as the best 4 year statistical runs ever, imo.


PER screws all of the volume scorers. It's a stat based on efficiency and heavily favors players who can assist and cherry-pick shots over those who take more. Jordan is also a shooting guard and rebounds less, of course. Jordan didn't play point, and didn't constantly assist each others, so how would this help his PER to be an off-ball scorer? The year that Jordan played Point Guard for stretches, he was putting up ridiculous triple doubles and had his 4th highest season of PER (once again, he played point for a fraction of that season). During those seasons that Jordan was producing more all-around due to a generally garbage team, he was producing his highest PER numbers and ridiculous win-shares of 20 a season (something Lebron's achieved once his whole career?)

I've never heard that PER somehow favors Jordan over Lebron- that's ludicrous. Who had the second highest PER in the Jordan era? How high was it? That's plenty of proof already as there was no shortage of great players. And he did it as a shooting guard with clogged lanes and actual big men playing big man positions at the rim.

To the point of the OP

Jordan's win shares of basically 20 per season over the stretch of 4 seasons is pretty crazy. Lebron averaged around 17 at his very best stretch of 4 years. Say what you will, but no, he hasn't done that. I'm sorry but Jordan, frankly, had a consistency that frankly we haven't seen from Lebron. And we all know the occasions that show this.

Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#24 » by DatAsh » Fri Sep 6, 2019 3:16 am

bledredwine wrote:
DatAsh wrote:Really wish Jordan and Lebron fans could find more common ground. Both are arguably the best ever.

I would agree that stats are inflated today, but I really only think that applies to the last few years. Most of Lebron's career is outside of that. If anything, I would say Jordan's stats are slightly more inflated overall, although I do agree his TS% would probably be 3-4% points higher today due to the spacing and 3 ball.

PER is heavily biased in favor of Jordan, as it's heavily biased in favor of volume scoring. The creator of the stat basically admits this. It's basically the perfect stat to make Jordan look amazing.

BPM and VORP are heavily biased in favor of Lebron, as it's based on modern impact data that is biased in favor of defensive rebounding and assists. BPM and VORP are almost useless for comparing players prior to 2001 to players after 2001.

Best to just look at the overall stats, and they're damn close. Either could be argued as the best 4 year statistical runs ever, imo.


PER screws all of the volume scorers. It's a stat based on efficiency and heavily favors players who can assist and cherry-pick shots over those who take more. Jordan is also a shooting guard and rebounds less, of course. Jordan didn't play point, and didn't constantly assist each others, so how would this help his PER to be an off-ball scorer? The year that Jordan played Point Guard for stretches, he was putting up ridiculous triple doubles and had his 4th highest season of PER (once again, he played point for a fraction of that season). During those seasons that Jordan was producing more all-around due to a generally garbage team, he was producing his highest PER numbers and ridiculous win-shares of 20 a season (something Lebron's achieved once his whole career?)

I've never heard that PER somehow favors Jordan over Lebron- that's ludicrous. Who had the second highest PER in the Jordan era? How high was it? That's plenty of proof already as there was no shortage of great players. And he did it as a shooting guard with clogged lanes and actual big men playing big man positions at the rim.

To the point of the OP

Jordan's win shares of basically 20 per season over the stretch of 4 seasons is pretty crazy. Lebron averaged around 17 at his very best stretch of 4 years. Say what you will, but no, he hasn't done that. I'm sorry but Jordan, frankly, had a consistency that frankly we haven't seen from Lebron. And we all know the occasions that show this.

Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#25 » by mysticOscar » Fri Sep 6, 2019 4:26 am

DatAsh wrote:Really wish Jordan and Lebron fans could find more common ground. Both are arguably the best ever.

I would agree that stats are inflated today, but I really only think that applies to the last few years. Most of Lebron's career is outside of that. If anything, I would say Jordan's stats are slightly more inflated overall, although I do agree his TS% would probably be 3-4% points higher today due to the spacing and 3 ball.

PER is heavily biased in favor of Jordan, as it's heavily biased in favor of volume scoring. The creator of the stat basically admits this. It's basically the perfect stat to make Jordan look amazing.

BPM and VORP are heavily biased in favor of Lebron, as it's based on modern impact data that is biased in favor of defensive rebounding and assists. BPM and VORP are almost useless for comparing players prior to 2001 to players after 2001.

Best to just look at the overall stats, and they're damn close. Either could be argued as the best 4 year statistical runs ever, imo.


Your right that Per can favour high volume shooters...but u cant use it in context when compared to Lebron who himself is a high volume shooter BUT also chews up defensive rebounds while being the pg of a team.

Also effeciency has a big impact on per...which you admitted is easier to be more effecient today.

Seems to me Lebrons per is more inflates tbh
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#26 » by Bel » Fri Sep 6, 2019 4:44 am

I would not be surprised if it happened very soon for two reasons. There seems to be a lag time where contrast bias will prevent people from appreciating just how much easier it is now to score for perimeter players than even 6 years ago, much less Jordan's era. Thus the NBA will keep inflating offense (at least RS offense) via rules and reffing since it appears to boost ratings and allow them to more easily manufacture bull historical narratives to drum up enthusiasm or hot take controversy (=clicks). Eventually the evidence will be so out of alignment that people realize its like points and rebounds in the 60's being inflated compared to later decades due to pace, but its not there yet.

Arguably as importantly is that players are now very aware of how they are being tracked. Much more sophisticated means of padding stats exist now. In Wilt or Jordan's time you were limited to checking the scorer's table mid-game to see how close you were to a triple double and demanding the ball a lot, since you were being graded on ppg, which was often the only stat listed in the newspapers. But MJ wasn't aware of some of these stats he's now being graded by [he was very aware of points though], since they didn't exist, so he didn't try to game them, nor was it culturally acceptable to ballhog on time of possession to the degree you can now. Now star players, aware of how they are being tracked, won't shoot buzzer heaves until after the buzzer, will throw 'hand grenades' to some poor sap at the end of the shot clock to preserve their TS%, hold the ball forever looking for an assist pass or nothing, dominate possession to boost their personal production at the cost of making teammates, or just refuse to take a tough shot and make a teammate shoot an even worse one on a possession where the defense plays well. Players will always be coming up with new techniques to game the stats they are measured by. I'm sure I'm missing several other ones currently utilized, and players in the near future will probably get even better at gaming the advanced stats and disguising it.

To be clear, this is not a value judgment, it is what it is. The more interesting question is whether a current or future player will be able to outdo historical players on even more sophisticated peer-relative stats that they aren't aware they are being graded on (i,e developed after their time).
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#27 » by KTM_2813 » Fri Sep 6, 2019 12:33 pm

Bel wrote:I would not be surprised if it happened very soon for two reasons. There seems to be a lag time where contrast bias will prevent people from appreciating just how much easier it is now to score for perimeter players than even 6 years ago, much less Jordan's era. Thus the NBA will keep inflating offense (at least RS offense) via rules and reffing since it appears to boost ratings and allow them to more easily manufacture bull historical narratives to drum up enthusiasm or hot take controversy (=clicks). Eventually the evidence will be so out of alignment that people realize its like points and rebounds in the 60's being inflated compared to later decades due to pace, but its not there yet.

Arguably as importantly is that players are now very aware of how they are being tracked. Much more sophisticated means of padding stats exist now. In Wilt or Jordan's time you were limited to checking the scorer's table mid-game to see how close you were to a triple double and demanding the ball a lot, since you were being graded on ppg, which was often the only stat listed in the newspapers. But MJ wasn't aware of some of these stats he's now being graded by [he was very aware of points though], since they didn't exist, so he didn't try to game them, nor was it culturally acceptable to ballhog on time of possession to the degree you can now. Now star players, aware of how they are being tracked, won't shoot buzzer heaves until after the buzzer, will throw 'hand grenades' to some poor sap at the end of the shot clock to preserve their TS%, hold the ball forever looking for an assist pass or nothing, dominate possession to boost their personal production at the cost of making teammates, or just refuse to take a tough shot and make a teammate shoot an even worse one on a possession where the defense plays well. Players will always be coming up with new techniques to game the stats they are measured by. I'm sure I'm missing several other ones currently utilized, and players in the near future will probably get even better at gaming the advanced stats and disguising it.

To be clear, this is not a value judgment, it is what it is. The more interesting question is whether a current or future player will be able to outdo historical players on even more sophisticated peer-relative stats that they aren't aware they are being graded on (i,e developed after their time).


I dunno... Maybe I am just being naive, but I feel like you may be overestimating the impact of stat padding today, and underestimating the impact of it historically. In general, I'm not a fan of putting a ton of stock in that stuff. Peer-relative metrics usually do a decent job of sorting everything out. Some random points:

- I feel like it's pretty rare to see players pass up shots in the final seconds just so their teammate can shoot a terrible shot and spare them the FG% hit.
- In terms of heaves... Take a player like Russell Westbrook. We know he's not gun shy, and his career high in heaves for a season is 3. Kobe's career high is 6. It seems to me like players simply don't shoot a lot of heaves.
- Much of the increased efficiency that we see from players today is the result of increased knowledge and improved strategy. The most famous example here is how players have pretty much cut out terrible mid-range jumpers, which were all the rage back in the day.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#28 » by Ainosterhaspie » Fri Sep 6, 2019 4:15 pm

"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#29 » by D.Brasco » Fri Sep 6, 2019 7:59 pm

bledredwine wrote:Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Well you can say Jordan only has one season where he surpassed LeBron's career assists average. LeBron has never focused purely on scoring as much as Jordan did throughout his career. LeBron's been as much a PG in his career as a primary scorer, which is why it's insane he's already at 32,000+ career points.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#30 » by Bidofo » Fri Sep 6, 2019 8:06 pm

DatAsh wrote:
bledredwine wrote:
DatAsh wrote:Really wish Jordan and Lebron fans could find more common ground. Both are arguably the best ever.

I would agree that stats are inflated today, but I really only think that applies to the last few years. Most of Lebron's career is outside of that. If anything, I would say Jordan's stats are slightly more inflated overall, although I do agree his TS% would probably be 3-4% points higher today due to the spacing and 3 ball.

PER is heavily biased in favor of Jordan, as it's heavily biased in favor of volume scoring. The creator of the stat basically admits this. It's basically the perfect stat to make Jordan look amazing.

BPM and VORP are heavily biased in favor of Lebron, as it's based on modern impact data that is biased in favor of defensive rebounding and assists. BPM and VORP are almost useless for comparing players prior to 2001 to players after 2001.

Best to just look at the overall stats, and they're damn close. Either could be argued as the best 4 year statistical runs ever, imo.


PER screws all of the volume scorers. It's a stat based on efficiency and heavily favors players who can assist and cherry-pick shots over those who take more. Jordan is also a shooting guard and rebounds less, of course. Jordan didn't play point, and didn't constantly assist each others, so how would this help his PER to be an off-ball scorer? The year that Jordan played Point Guard for stretches, he was putting up ridiculous triple doubles and had his 4th highest season of PER (once again, he played point for a fraction of that season). During those seasons that Jordan was producing more all-around due to a generally garbage team, he was producing his highest PER numbers and ridiculous win-shares of 20 a season (something Lebron's achieved once his whole career?)

I've never heard that PER somehow favors Jordan over Lebron- that's ludicrous. Who had the second highest PER in the Jordan era? How high was it? That's plenty of proof already as there was no shortage of great players. And he did it as a shooting guard with clogged lanes and actual big men playing big man positions at the rim.

To the point of the OP

Jordan's win shares of basically 20 per season over the stretch of 4 seasons is pretty crazy. Lebron averaged around 17 at his very best stretch of 4 years. Say what you will, but no, he hasn't done that. I'm sorry but Jordan, frankly, had a consistency that frankly we haven't seen from Lebron. And we all know the occasions that show this.

Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.

Yikes. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#31 » by bledredwine » Sat Sep 7, 2019 12:14 pm

D.Brasco wrote:
bledredwine wrote:Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Well you can say Jordan only has one season where he surpassed LeBron's career assists average. LeBron has never focused purely on scoring as much as Jordan did throughout his career. LeBron's been as much a PG in his career as a primary scorer, which is why it's insane he's already at 32,000+ career points.



You do realize that Jordan played offball, and not point right? And that for the season where Jordan played point for a third of the season, he averaged 8 assists that season? And that he has the 3rd highest assists in a finals series at 11.4 per game in 1991? When Jordan took on the role, he was elite. He was a heck of a playmaker, and smart at it.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#32 » by bledredwine » Sat Sep 7, 2019 12:19 pm

Bidofo wrote:
DatAsh wrote:
bledredwine wrote:
PER screws all of the volume scorers. It's a stat based on efficiency and heavily favors players who can assist and cherry-pick shots over those who take more. Jordan is also a shooting guard and rebounds less, of course. Jordan didn't play point, and didn't constantly assist each others, so how would this help his PER to be an off-ball scorer? The year that Jordan played Point Guard for stretches, he was putting up ridiculous triple doubles and had his 4th highest season of PER (once again, he played point for a fraction of that season). During those seasons that Jordan was producing more all-around due to a generally garbage team, he was producing his highest PER numbers and ridiculous win-shares of 20 a season (something Lebron's achieved once his whole career?)

I've never heard that PER somehow favors Jordan over Lebron- that's ludicrous. Who had the second highest PER in the Jordan era? How high was it? That's plenty of proof already as there was no shortage of great players. And he did it as a shooting guard with clogged lanes and actual big men playing big man positions at the rim.

To the point of the OP

Jordan's win shares of basically 20 per season over the stretch of 4 seasons is pretty crazy. Lebron averaged around 17 at his very best stretch of 4 years. Say what you will, but no, he hasn't done that. I'm sorry but Jordan, frankly, had a consistency that frankly we haven't seen from Lebron. And we all know the occasions that show this.

Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.

Yikes. :lol: :lol: :lol:



That’s a terrible explanation. More missed shots = lower PER.

PER rewards the ability to create shots aka volume scoring less than it should, because in a lull, you need that guy who can take over and hit those shots.

And let’s not sit here and pretend that it’s the volume of 3 pointers here isn’t way higher and more achievable than its ever been.

PERs are higher all around and Jordan did it at a time where PERs of 30 did. not. happen.

You guys are ridiculous with your false logic. Go ahead and post the 27+ PER lists from both eras and tell me where it was more achievable. Give actual evidence and not BS that you fabricate. You both have no fabricated and even eliminated poor years to cherry pick. That I’m itself answers this thread.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#33 » by Bidofo » Sat Sep 7, 2019 6:07 pm

bledredwine wrote:
That’s a terrible explanation. More missed shots = lower PER.

PER rewards the ability to create shots aka volume scoring less than it should, because in a lull, you need that guy who can take over and hit those shots.

Lol did you even read what DatAsh quoted? How is that a terrible explanation, it's literally one of the hugest flaws of a stat like PER, that you can keep chucking and make the value go up. So yes, it does reward volume shooting, saying that it doesn't shows a clear lack of understanding on how the statistic is calculated.
bledredwine wrote:And let’s not sit here and pretend that it’s the volume of 3 pointers here isn’t way higher and more achievable than its ever been.
Ok? Who here is pretending??? Classic strawman.
bledredwine wrote:PERs are higher all around and Jordan did it at a time where PERs of 30 did. not. happen.

You guys are ridiculous with your false logic. Go ahead and post the 27+ PER lists from both eras and tell me where it was more achievable. Give actual evidence and not BS that you fabricate. You both have no fabricated and even eliminated poor years to cherry pick. That I’m itself answers this thread.

At this point, it's clear to me you don't really care enough like other people do to read through these threads and make an actual well-thought out response. You're stumbling. Otherwise, maybe you would have seen the "actual evidence" I gave? About how league ORTG and pace was higher in each of Jordan's 30+ PER seasons than in LeBron's last 30+ PER season, 2013? Who here is fabricating information lol there is no grand conspiracy to denounce Michael Jordan I hope you know.

Here is how many players had 27+ PER in each of both players' 30+ PER seasons, and the average of the top four after Jordan/LeBron:

1988: 3 with 27+, 25.8 avg
1989: 2 with 27+, 25.88 avg
1990: 3 with 27+, 26.8 avg
1991: 3 with 27+, 26.55 avg

2009: 3 with 27+ (all three were 30+ actually), 27.55 avg
2010: 2 with 27+, 25.98 avg
2012: 2 with 27+, 26.23 avg
2013: 2 with 27+, 26.05 avg

Total Jordan-PER>30 era players: 11
Total James-PER>30 era players: 9

Average PER of all the top 4 guys each year (Jordan) ~ 26.26
Average PER of all the top 4 guys each year (LeBron) ~ 26.45

Would you look at that. By YOUR own "metric", there were more 27+ PER players in Jordan's mini-era here than LeBron's. Here is the actual evidence. Sooo...I guess it was easier for Jordan right? Even looking at the average PER of the rest of the top 4 each year shows a very slight increase for LeBron, so unless you think .19 makes that much of a difference, gtfo with this era inflation stuff. Again, the best stretch of LeBron's prime did not come in this current era!!! Shouldn't even need to be said to anyone who pays close attention.

Take a look in the mirror and realize that you can actually be a good poster because you know a lot about Jordan. All this mumbo jumbo stanning is probably why you feel like all of RealGM is against you lol.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#34 » by D.Brasco » Sat Sep 7, 2019 6:09 pm

bledredwine wrote:
D.Brasco wrote:
bledredwine wrote:Jordan was way too dominant as a scorer. Lebron has topped Jordan's career scoring average only once- in his third season. Every other season is lower than Jordan's career average of 30.4 ppg. Think about that level of consistency and showing up, "clutch" and whatever you may attach to that.


Well you can say Jordan only has one season where he surpassed LeBron's career assists average. LeBron has never focused purely on scoring as much as Jordan did throughout his career. LeBron's been as much a PG in his career as a primary scorer, which is why it's insane he's already at 32,000+ career points.



You do realize that Jordan played offball, and not point right? And that for the season where Jordan played point for a third of the season, he averaged 8 assists that season? And that he has the 3rd highest assists in a finals series at 11.4 per game in 1991? When Jordan took on the role, he was elite. He was a heck of a playmaker, and smart at it.


Likewise LeBron has played point-forward his whole career and not an off-ball scorer. If LeBron devoted his game to pure scoring and not dishing out 7+ apg for his career, he'd probably be at 35,000+ career points by now.

So it's silly to use the argument of Jordan averaged more point therefore he's better than LeBron. They are two different players and any comparison between them has to look at all facets of their game not distilled down to one like just points or just assists.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#35 » by freethedevil » Sat Sep 7, 2019 7:45 pm

Ainosterhaspie wrote:"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.

People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#36 » by mysticOscar » Sat Sep 7, 2019 8:37 pm

freethedevil wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.

People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.



The use of Drating in that post lacks so much context. Not using OReb% and Ftr while comparing Drating across eras is really misguided.

The fact is, in todays league with even historically low OReb and FTr....the Orating is up there as the highest ever...and when it comes to efficiency, its the best ever.

This is due to the fact that today the rules are catered for perimeter scoring and where most of the volume of scoring is coming from vs it being in the post before.

We saw what happened when the league moved to the perimeter prior to the rules being alteres (late 90s to early 00s)...the scoring went down.

In other words MJ was a big outlier as a high volume perimeter scorer in his time...and u teleport him today in perimeter friendly open space league...i dont know how teams can stop him
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#37 » by freethedevil » Sat Sep 7, 2019 10:26 pm

mysticOscar wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.

People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.



The use of Drating in that post lacks so much context. Not using OReb% and Ftr while comparing Drating across eras is really misguided.

The fact is, in todays league with even historically low OReb and FTr....the Orating is up there as the highest ever...and when it comes to efficiency, its the best ever.

This is due to the fact that today the rules are catered for perimeter scoring and where most of the volume of scoring is coming from vs it being in the post before.

We saw what happened when the league moved to the perimeter prior to the rules being alteres (late 90s to early 00s)...the scoring went down.

In other words MJ was a big outlier as a high volume perimeter scorer in his time...and u teleport him today in perimeter friendly open space league...i dont know how teams can stop him

Using o rating is silly becuase it measures a team's offense. With illegal defense, isolation scoring was augmented giving greater focus to a single player's ability score. Just because a team's offense scores more does not mean the induvidual superstar scores more. This is why the season after the rule changes, basically all the players who played at the all star game scored less. You're wildly attributing changes that happened this season to post mj years. Ball movement, sharing #'s was the main progression of the 2010's starting in 2008. And up until then, the league wasn't different from the 90's for induvidual players.

The notion jordan would suddenly see his #'s explode is utterly baseless any season outside of 2019.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#38 » by mysticOscar » Sun Sep 8, 2019 12:55 am

freethedevil wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:
freethedevil wrote:People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.



The use of Drating in that post lacks so much context. Not using OReb% and Ftr while comparing Drating across eras is really misguided.

The fact is, in todays league with even historically low OReb and FTr....the Orating is up there as the highest ever...and when it comes to efficiency, its the best ever.

This is due to the fact that today the rules are catered for perimeter scoring and where most of the volume of scoring is coming from vs it being in the post before.

We saw what happened when the league moved to the perimeter prior to the rules being alteres (late 90s to early 00s)...the scoring went down.

In other words MJ was a big outlier as a high volume perimeter scorer in his time...and u teleport him today in perimeter friendly open space league...i dont know how teams can stop him

Using o rating is silly becuase it measures a team's offense. With illegal defense, isolation scoring was augmented giving greater focus to a single player's ability score. Just because a team's offense scores more does not mean the induvidual superstar scores more. This is why the season after the rule changes, basically all the players who played at the all star game scored less. You're wildly attributing changes that happened this season to post mj years. Ball movement, sharing #'s was the main progression of the 2010's starting in 2008. And up until then, the league wasn't different from the 90's for induvidual players.

The notion jordan would suddenly see his #'s explode is utterly baseless any season outside of 2019.


Its not baseless...the league clearly reverted away from the post and the scoring was moving towards the perimeter players due to the influence of Bulls/MJ and the shortening of 3pt line in late 90s when the rules didnt cater for it yet like they do today....thats why u see a drastic change of volume of shots coming from post players in early 90s to lets say 2000. Thats why u see a big drop of league average scoring drop during that time (but teams with dominant offensive front court players were still doing ok).

In other words players / teams were trying to emulate MJ...but they just weren't as good until u see the league change the rules and then u see a spike up in mid '00s. Coincidentally....outside of maybe Dirk...all MVPs were perimeter players in the last 15 years?? Common sense should be applied here
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#39 » by Ainosterhaspie » Sun Sep 8, 2019 2:06 am

mysticOscar wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.

People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.



The use of Drating in that post lacks so much context. Not using OReb% and Ftr while comparing Drating across eras is really misguided.

The fact is, in todays league with even historically low OReb and FTr....the Orating is up there as the highest ever...and when it comes to efficiency, its the best ever.

This is due to the fact that today the rules are catered for perimeter scoring and where most of the volume of scoring is coming from vs it being in the post before.

We saw what happened when the league moved to the perimeter prior to the rules being alteres (late 90s to early 00s)...the scoring went down.

In other words MJ was a big outlier as a high volume perimeter scorer in his time...and u teleport him today in perimeter friendly open space league...i dont know how teams can stop him


Well give the context. Don't expect us to just accept your word that defense was great 85-98 and bad 04 to 18. I haven't seen any data that supports that position. When I watch games from the previous era I'm not at all impressed with the defense. It was not that good then and the DRtg supports that.

From what I'm seeing defense and offense from 85 to 95 and from 05 to 15 were more or less the same. Ddfense started getting significantly better around 96 to around 04 but that time falls outside the primes of Jordan and LeBron and isn't that relevant when comparing them.

Offense has really ticked up the last couple years, but again that's outside LeBron's prime so not particularly relevant. Prime Jordan and prime LeBron faced similar caliber defenses.

--

I don't get why you are bringing up offensive rebounds and FTr. Can you expand on that?
My GOATs 1.LBJ/2.Jordan/3.KAJ/4.Duncan/5.Magic
Russell and Wilt grandfathered in at 6 and 7.

Yes I watched Jordan live, started paying attention to basketball in the bad boys era.

I respect Jordan way more now than I did when he played.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#40 » by Ainosterhaspie » Sun Sep 8, 2019 2:16 am

freethedevil wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:"Stat padding" is an overplayed, generally poorly informed, and not particularly accurate way of dismissing current accomplishments. There are kernels of truth to it, but it is largely inaccurate.

For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.

People also look at Westbrook and Harden who are putting up gaudy, unprecedented statlines and using them to discredit LeBron. But their gaudy statlines do not overlap LeBron's best years, and LeBron has been more successful translating his game and stats into post season success.

It's particularly disengenuous to equate Westbrook's clearly stat padded rebounding numbers and conclude that LeBron's rebounding numbers are inflated in the same way. LeBron's teams have never instituted a team wide effort to get LeBron as many rebounds as possible.

That aside, LeBron had great rebounding numbers in an era before the current trend which is seeing higher numbers for perimeter players. It probably is fair to say that LeBron's recent rebounding numbers would have been slightly less in other Eras. The last three years are his three highest rebounding years despite clearly fading athleticism and energy. But even if you discount those years, he has very good numbers compared to Jordan.

Probably the most ludicrous attack on LeBron as a stat paddler is in the area of assists. LeBron is a gifted and willing passer and has always been that. Jordan wanted to score first, second and third. He had to be reigned in and taught to let his teammates get involved. For LeBron that is instinctual. Jordan took more shots. LeBron passes up some of those shots choosing to set his guys up instead. It isn't stat padding, it's smart, effective team oriented play. It's bizarre that people try to claim Jordan was more of a team player.

People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.


Both what you're saying and the stat padding rebounds can be true at the same time.

Westbrook grabbing a long rebound and attacking is not the same as everyone boxing out on a rebound so he can get it under the basket while the entire other team is getting back and set on defense.

And Westbrook cheating off his man to grab a rebound under the basket, even if it leads to more points, (something I'm sceptical about in that particular instance) is setting up the other team to score more too with easy, open looks.

OKC was selling out to make sure Westbrook gets more rebounds in situations where there was no advantage or where it was actually disadvantageous, not just when it was advantageous.

Even if you took away those rebounds, I believe he would still have really good rebounding numbers. He's an excellent rebounder for his position.
My GOATs 1.LBJ/2.Jordan/3.KAJ/4.Duncan/5.Magic
Russell and Wilt grandfathered in at 6 and 7.

Yes I watched Jordan live, started paying attention to basketball in the bad boys era.

I respect Jordan way more now than I did when he played.

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