When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch?

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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#41 » by mysticOscar » Sun Sep 8, 2019 6:19 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:
freethedevil wrote:People should read this.

That being said, westbrook's statpadded rebounds are at best hyperbole. The reason okc gives him extra rebounds is because westbrook led transition offense is their most effective version of attack.



The use of Drating in that post lacks so much context. Not using OReb% and Ftr while comparing Drating across eras is really misguided.

The fact is, in todays league with even historically low OReb and FTr....the Orating is up there as the highest ever...and when it comes to efficiency, its the best ever.

This is due to the fact that today the rules are catered for perimeter scoring and where most of the volume of scoring is coming from vs it being in the post before.

We saw what happened when the league moved to the perimeter prior to the rules being alteres (late 90s to early 00s)...the scoring went down.

In other words MJ was a big outlier as a high volume perimeter scorer in his time...and u teleport him today in perimeter friendly open space league...i dont know how teams can stop him


Well give the context. Don't expect us to just accept your word that defense was great 85-98 and bad 04 to 18. I haven't seen any data that supports that position. When I watch games from the previous era I'm not at all impressed with the defense. It was not that good then and the DRtg supports that.

From what I'm seeing defense and offense from 85 to 95 and from 05 to 15 were more or less the same. Ddfense started getting significantly better around 96 to around 04 but that time falls outside the primes of Jordan and LeBron and isn't that relevant when comparing them.

Offense has really ticked up the last couple years, but again that's outside LeBron's prime so not particularly relevant. Prime Jordan and prime LeBron faced similar caliber defenses.

--

I don't get why you are bringing up offensive rebounds and FTr. Can you expand on that?


U have to look at different eras in the right context.

Mid 80s to mid 90s were all about post scoring. U dont see many movement in defenses in the 3pt line because not many shots were taken from there. Lanes were packed because defensive 3 seconds were not a thing, and when u had a high volume perimeter slasher (which became common in the mid 90s)...hand checking were deployed more often...to slow the drive in time for the bigs to get under the ring.

Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

Regarding OREB and FTR has a massive impact on DRating....because D or O rating is scoring per 100 possession. So the higher FTr allows more scoring within 100 possessions (since post scoring consists of more physicality which garners more free throws)....and Orebound does not count as a new possesion and gwnerally an Oreb has a higher chance of of scoring through put backs or getting fouled.

But today...perimeter scoring is so overpowered that they dont even need the same FTr or high OReb to be the same ORating as post scoring....which to me shows how much the league has really nerfed defense against perimeter....why would teams ever employ post oriented scoring again??
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#42 » by KobesScarf » Sun Sep 8, 2019 6:34 am

Wilt 66-69 is better
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#43 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Sep 8, 2019 7:09 pm

KobesScarf wrote:Wilt 66-69 is better


Would be great to see the impact that 66-69 Wilt would have on the game today.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#44 » by 70sFan » Sun Sep 8, 2019 8:56 pm

KobesScarf wrote:Wilt 66-69 is better

Give me 1964-67 or 1965-68 Wilt over 1966-69.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#45 » by Mazter » Mon Sep 9, 2019 12:53 pm

mysticOscar wrote:Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

You forgot to mention the third factor to have a massive impact on ORtg...three point shooting. The league averages 32.0 attempts at 35.5% from beyond the arc which equals 53.3% from within the arc.

Now this remark is a little strange since the league average for wide open 3's is 38%. The only reason for this figure to be so low is because of worse shooters taking more 3-pointers when being wide open. Curry for example shot 52.5% on 4 3PA's/gm (78.8% eFG, higher than historical average from the FT line) when wide open from beyond the arc. It's not just him. For example, Gallinari (51.9%, 2.3Att), Danny Green (51.3%, 2.5), Hield (49.1%, 3.1) and Harris (48.6%, 2.4) just to mention some.

There were actually 75 players shooting above 40% with at least 100 open 3P attemps at the arc this season alone. There were only 36 players able to do it in 9! Jordan years. So understandably, running around the arc wasn't a thing then, but it is now.

Now, to get back to your statement, the league average on contested 3's is 29%. Effectively this is below league average shooting. Curry shot just 38.2% when not being wide open. So if anything can be said, in this era, MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE IS BETTER DEFENSE!

Oh, and as a bonus, league average for FGA's in the restricted area in 97 was at 29.7, last season this was 29.4, so it's not like the paint was left wide open.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#46 » by mysticOscar » Mon Sep 9, 2019 2:16 pm

Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

You forgot to mention the third factor to have a massive impact on ORtg...three point shooting. The league averages 32.0 attempts at 35.5% from beyond the arc which equals 53.3% from within the arc.

Now this remark is a little strange since the league average for wide open 3's is 38%. The only reason for this figure to be so low is because of worse shooters taking more 3-pointers when being wide open. Curry for example shot 52.5% on 4 3PA's/gm (78.8% eFG, higher than historical average from the FT line) when wide open from beyond the arc. It's not just him. For example, Gallinari (51.9%, 2.3Att), Danny Green (51.3%, 2.5), Hield (49.1%, 3.1) and Harris (48.6%, 2.4) just to mention some.

There were actually 75 players shooting above 40% with at least 100 open 3P attemps at the arc this season alone. There were only 36 players able to do it in 9! Jordan years. So understandably, running around the arc wasn't a thing then, but it is now.

Now, to get back to your statement, the league average on contested 3's is 29%. Effectively this is below league average shooting. Curry shot just 38.2% when not being wide open. So if anything can be said, in this era, MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE IS BETTER DEFENSE!

Oh, and as a bonus, league average for FGA's in the restricted area in 97 was at 29.7, last season this was 29.4, so it's not like the paint was left wide open.


Its great how u posted all these data but then left out one critical thing.....the amount of drives in todays game.

If u look at closer the vast increase of drives from perimeter players into account, it makes what i said (in full) and the stats u posted fall into place.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#47 » by Mazter » Mon Sep 9, 2019 2:44 pm

mysticOscar wrote:
Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

You forgot to mention the third factor to have a massive impact on ORtg...three point shooting. The league averages 32.0 attempts at 35.5% from beyond the arc which equals 53.3% from within the arc.

Now this remark is a little strange since the league average for wide open 3's is 38%. The only reason for this figure to be so low is because of worse shooters taking more 3-pointers when being wide open. Curry for example shot 52.5% on 4 3PA's/gm (78.8% eFG, higher than historical average from the FT line) when wide open from beyond the arc. It's not just him. For example, Gallinari (51.9%, 2.3Att), Danny Green (51.3%, 2.5), Hield (49.1%, 3.1) and Harris (48.6%, 2.4) just to mention some.

There were actually 75 players shooting above 40% with at least 100 open 3P attemps at the arc this season alone. There were only 36 players able to do it in 9! Jordan years. So understandably, running around the arc wasn't a thing then, but it is now.

Now, to get back to your statement, the league average on contested 3's is 29%. Effectively this is below league average shooting. Curry shot just 38.2% when not being wide open. So if anything can be said, in this era, MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE IS BETTER DEFENSE!

Oh, and as a bonus, league average for FGA's in the restricted area in 97 was at 29.7, last season this was 29.4, so it's not like the paint was left wide open.


Its great how u posted all these data but then left out one critical thing.....the amount of drives in todays game.

If u look at closer the vast increase of drives from perimeter players into account, it makes what i said (in full) and the stats u posted fall into place.

League averages per game 18/19:
Amount of drives - 43.8
Direct FGA's from drives - 19.8
Amount of FT from drives - 6.3
Passes from drives - 16.8
Assists from drives - 4.2
TO's from drives - 3.1
FG efficiency from drives - 47.2%
TS% from drives - 53.3%

But what's so critical about it?

Given that they are not allowed to hand check the defense seems to do a good job at
1) neutralizing the direct threat from drives (53.3TS% equal to 53.3% from open 3's)
2) after collapsing on the paint rotate to the open man (only 25% of the passes from drives leads to an assist)
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#48 » by mysticOscar » Mon Sep 9, 2019 3:23 pm

Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:
Mazter wrote:You forgot to mention the third factor to have a massive impact on ORtg...three point shooting. The league averages 32.0 attempts at 35.5% from beyond the arc which equals 53.3% from within the arc.

Now this remark is a little strange since the league average for wide open 3's is 38%. The only reason for this figure to be so low is because of worse shooters taking more 3-pointers when being wide open. Curry for example shot 52.5% on 4 3PA's/gm (78.8% eFG, higher than historical average from the FT line) when wide open from beyond the arc. It's not just him. For example, Gallinari (51.9%, 2.3Att), Danny Green (51.3%, 2.5), Hield (49.1%, 3.1) and Harris (48.6%, 2.4) just to mention some.

There were actually 75 players shooting above 40% with at least 100 open 3P attemps at the arc this season alone. There were only 36 players able to do it in 9! Jordan years. So understandably, running around the arc wasn't a thing then, but it is now.

Now, to get back to your statement, the league average on contested 3's is 29%. Effectively this is below league average shooting. Curry shot just 38.2% when not being wide open. So if anything can be said, in this era, MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE IS BETTER DEFENSE!

Oh, and as a bonus, league average for FGA's in the restricted area in 97 was at 29.7, last season this was 29.4, so it's not like the paint was left wide open.


Its great how u posted all these data but then left out one critical thing.....the amount of drives in todays game.

If u look at closer the vast increase of drives from perimeter players into account, it makes what i said (in full) and the stats u posted fall into place.

League averages per game 18/19:
Amount of drives - 43.8
Direct FGA's from drives - 19.8
Amount of FT from drives - 6.3
Passes from drives - 16.8
Assists from drives - 4.2
TO's from drives - 3.1
FG efficiency from drives - 47.2%
TS% from drives - 53.3%

But what's so critical about it?

Given that they are not allowed to hand check the defense seems to do a good job at
1) neutralizing the direct threat from drives (53.3TS% equal to 53.3% from open 3's)
2) after collapsing on the paint rotate to the open man (only 25% of the passes from drives leads to an assist)


A drive is having a ball handler dribbling the ball all the way to the rim from at least close to 3pt line.

AND to think u have the league averaging 44 drives per team per game with this type of basketball play. Thats over 40% of possesions where a drive is involved.

What im trying to imply to u (which i may not have been so clear) is that the perimeter drive IS the engine behind the perimeter oriented offense. It is what kicks start an offensive possesion majority of the time and gets the defense scrambling and just opens up the rest of the offensive options for the team.

AND to think a dribbler having to drive all the way to the hoop from 20+ feet into traffic at that frequency and still average a decent effeciency is absolutely a big exclammation mark.

The league enabled these drives for perimeter players...by installing defensive 3 seconds and eliminating hand checks.

As a bonus.....the NBA has admitted changing the rules with this intention....but hey why should we listen to the ppl that actually change and govern the rules right?
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#49 » by Mazter » Mon Sep 9, 2019 6:12 pm

mysticOscar wrote:The league enabled these drives for perimeter players...by installing defensive 3 seconds and eliminating hand checks.

As a bonus.....the NBA has admitted changing the rules with this intention....but hey why should we listen to the ppl that actually change and govern the rules right?

Ok, this is nothing new for me and I don't completely disagree with you on the intentions of the league or the outcome of it...brings us back to this statement of yours...
mysticOscar wrote:DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

...so why shouldn't we? Unless you are going to tell me locking down Draymond Green at the 3pt line is better defense than rotating to an open Curry or Thompson, I don't think there is an argument. Part of great defense against drives, which happens a lot also according to your saying, is a lot of movement and rotations.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#50 » by Mavericksfan » Mon Sep 9, 2019 8:38 pm

mysticOscar wrote:
Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:
Its great how u posted all these data but then left out one critical thing.....the amount of drives in todays game.

If u look at closer the vast increase of drives from perimeter players into account, it makes what i said (in full) and the stats u posted fall into place.

League averages per game 18/19:
Amount of drives - 43.8
Direct FGA's from drives - 19.8
Amount of FT from drives - 6.3
Passes from drives - 16.8
Assists from drives - 4.2
TO's from drives - 3.1
FG efficiency from drives - 47.2%
TS% from drives - 53.3%

But what's so critical about it?

Given that they are not allowed to hand check the defense seems to do a good job at
1) neutralizing the direct threat from drives (53.3TS% equal to 53.3% from open 3's)
2) after collapsing on the paint rotate to the open man (only 25% of the passes from drives leads to an assist)


A drive is having a ball handler dribbling the ball all the way to the rim from at least close to 3pt line.

AND to think u have the league averaging 44 drives per team per game with this type of basketball play. Thats over 40% of possesions where a drive is involved.

What im trying to imply to u (which i may not have been so clear) is that the perimeter drive IS the engine behind the perimeter oriented offense. It is what kicks start an offensive possesion majority of the time and gets the defense scrambling and just opens up the rest of the offensive options for the team.

AND to think a dribbler having to drive all the way to the hoop from 20+ feet into traffic at that frequency and still average a decent effeciency is absolutely a big exclammation mark.

The league enabled these drives for perimeter players...by installing defensive 3 seconds and eliminating hand checks.

As a bonus.....the NBA has admitted changing the rules with this intention....but hey why should we listen to the ppl that actually change and govern the rules right?


You conveniently ignored legalized zone which made defenses too good. Illegal defense did exist in the 80s so it’s not like guys were just roaming around clogging every driving lane.

Ben Wallace’s Pistons and Duncan’s Spurs were ridiculous on D and the league didnt want them dominating their conferences in the playoffs so they placed emphasis on hand checking. Defenses responded by overloading the strongside (thanks Thibs) and offenses responded with more shooting. This led to a greater emphasis on wing guys that can shoot and defense multiple positions to allow switch heavy defenses.

Defense isnt any worse but the rules have made it a lot harder to have an elite defensive impact.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#51 » by Ainosterhaspie » Mon Sep 9, 2019 8:51 pm

mysticOscar wrote:Mid 80s to mid 90s were all about post scoring. U dont see many movement in defenses in the 3pt line because not many shots were taken from there. Lanes were packed because defensive 3 seconds were not a thing, and when u had a high volume perimeter slasher (which became common in the mid 90s)...hand checking were deployed more often...to slow the drive in time for the bigs to get under the ring.


Wait, you say that bigs could camp under the basket because there was no defensive three seconds, then say handchecking was used to give time for them to get under the basket, but you were just saying they were already there.

Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.


Maybe there's more movement because it finally dawned on teams that three pointers are really valuable. You aren't paying attention if you think peremiter players can't have a hand laid on them, and you are misrembering the past if you think it was far more prevalent in 85-98 than 04-18.

Regarding OREB and FTR has a massive impact on DRating....because D or O rating is scoring per 100 possession. So the higher FTr allows more scoring within 100 possessions (since post scoring consists of more physicality which garners more free throws)....and Orebound does not count as a new possesion and gwnerally an Oreb has a higher chance of of scoring through put backs or getting fouled.

But today...perimeter scoring is so overpowered that they dont even need the same FTr or high OReb to be the same ORating as post scoring....which to me shows how much the league has really nerfed defense against perimeter....why would teams ever employ post oriented scoring again??


I was arguing that defense was more or less equal, perhaps slightly stronger during LeBron's time compared to Jordan's. Your argument seems to be "no its not because it's different". You haven't rebutted my contention in anyway.

People are always arguing that Jordan faced this brutal league full of elite differences, but when I go re-watch the tape I just don't see it. So then I look at the ORtgs and again I'm not seeing the great defenses everyone keeps telling me about. Eye test and data are both pointing me in the same direction: defense in the Jordan era is dramatically overrated with the caveat that it was ticking up his last couple years in the league.

And the fact the offenses were doing stupid things like not leveraging the power of three pointers and trying to grab offensive rebounds instead of getting back to get set for defense doesn't help convince me that defenses were really good in that era.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#52 » by mysticOscar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:54 am

Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:The league enabled these drives for perimeter players...by installing defensive 3 seconds and eliminating hand checks.

As a bonus.....the NBA has admitted changing the rules with this intention....but hey why should we listen to the ppl that actually change and govern the rules right?

Ok, this is nothing new for me and I don't completely disagree with you on the intentions of the league or the outcome of it...brings us back to this statement of yours...
mysticOscar wrote:DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.

...so why shouldn't we? Unless you are going to tell me locking down Draymond Green at the 3pt line is better defense than rotating to an open Curry or Thompson, I don't think there is an argument. Part of great defense against drives, which happens a lot also according to your saying, is a lot of movement and rotations.


If you read my whole post from where you took that sound bite from...then u should know the context im stating that from
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#53 » by FrogBros4Life » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:03 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.


I don't think this quite proves what you are getting at. It's one thing to compare dRTGs (or oRTGs) of individual teams in the same season or same era, but the league average dRTG/oRTG is always relative to the other (re: they are the same number). In 2016 for example, the league average oRTG was 106.4. That means the league average dRTG is also 106.4.

So.....if you are saying the league average dRTG from 85-98 being 107.5 indicates that defense was worse than it was from 04-16 because that time period had a league average dRTG of 106.6....then you can use those same numbers to suggest that offense was inherently (or, organically) worse from 04-16 than it was from 85-98 (oRTG 107.5 > oRTG 106.6). And if offenses are more potent, it will be more difficult for defenses to stop teams from scoring. And if offenses are less potent, it will be easier for defenses to perform well against them. So, you're kind of using a knife that cuts both ways there.

If we look at things like Pace, PPG, eFG%, FTA/G, OPP TO% and PPG per 100 we see that defense, league wide, is more or less on par with the relative strength to league offense for both of these time periods. If anything, these numbers suggest that defense was a bit more stifling between any of the Jordan years you cited and any of the Lebron years you have cited.

Code: Select all

                Pace         PPG         eFG%         FTA/G        OPP TO%        PPGper100
              ===================================================================================
85-98:          96.7         104.8      49.02       27.9            14.4             107.48

85-93:          99.47        108.02     48.98       28.7            14.25            107.9

04-18:          92.86        99.74      49.68       24.03           13.48            106.58

04-18*:         92.97        99.99      49.75       24.14           13.45            106.72

04-16:          92.2         98.79      49.36       24.28           13.57            106.25

04-16*:         92.32        99         49.42       24.43           13.55            106.39


Both of the * rows exclude the lockout shortened 2012 season from the data

So, at our biggest discrepancy between PPGper100 there is a 1.65 point difference. At the narrowest point of comparison, the difference is 0.76. So scoring per possession is up anywhere from 3/4 of a single point to ~ 1 and 3/4 of a 2 pt FG during Jordan's time. But the players in the Jordan years you cited were also attempting about 4.5 more FT's a game.

And in all of the Lebron years you cited, teams shot better from the field against live defenders, and defenders forced offensive teams into less turnovers than any of the Jordan years. Again, I think league wide the relative strength of the defense is comparable between eras. You can make a case that defenses were a bit tougher in Jordan's years, but not to the degree some might argue. I don't really see a case for the defenses in the league during Lebron's career being tougher in any absolute sense though.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#54 » by mysticOscar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:06 am

Ainosterhaspie wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:Mid 80s to mid 90s were all about post scoring. U dont see many movement in defenses in the 3pt line because not many shots were taken from there. Lanes were packed because defensive 3 seconds were not a thing, and when u had a high volume perimeter slasher (which became common in the mid 90s)...hand checking were deployed more often...to slow the drive in time for the bigs to get under the ring.


Wait, you say that bigs could camp under the basket because there was no defensive three seconds, then say handchecking was used to give time for them to get under the basket, but you were just saying they were already there.

Now of course u see more defensive movement in the 3pt line...because u cant lay a hand on perimeter player at all...and there are no bigs really camped under the ring. DONT MISTAKE MORE DEFENSIVE MOVEMENT AROUND THE 3PT LINE FOR BETTER DEFENSE.


Maybe there's more movement because it finally dawned on teams that three pointers are really valuable. You aren't paying attention if you think peremiter players can't have a hand laid on them, and you are misrembering the past if you think it was far more prevalent in 85-98 than 04-18.

Regarding OREB and FTR has a massive impact on DRating....because D or O rating is scoring per 100 possession. So the higher FTr allows more scoring within 100 possessions (since post scoring consists of more physicality which garners more free throws)....and Orebound does not count as a new possesion and gwnerally an Oreb has a higher chance of of scoring through put backs or getting fouled.

But today...perimeter scoring is so overpowered that they dont even need the same FTr or high OReb to be the same ORating as post scoring....which to me shows how much the league has really nerfed defense against perimeter....why would teams ever employ post oriented scoring again??


I was arguing that defense was more or less equal, perhaps slightly stronger during LeBron's time compared to Jordan's. Your argument seems to be "no its not because it's different". You haven't rebutted my contention in anyway.

People are always arguing that Jordan faced this brutal league full of elite differences, but when I go re-watch the tape I just don't see it. So then I look at the ORtgs and again I'm not seeing the great defenses everyone keeps telling me about. Eye test and data are both pointing me in the same direction: defense in the Jordan era is dramatically overrated with the caveat that it was ticking up his last couple years in the league.

And the fact the offenses were doing stupid things like not leveraging the power of three pointers and trying to grab offensive rebounds instead of getting back to get set for defense doesn't help convince me that defenses were really good in that era.


I cant respond in detail (on my phone)....but ill try to rephrase and summarise my pov so its clearer.

Dont judge the different eras with a lens like nothing has changed (i.e. rules).

Prior eras the league emphasis was more on post oriented scoring where as today its initated by perimeter drives and 3pt shooting.

The league pushing and changing the rules to shape the league the way has a lot to do with it (but not only).

As u have discovered, post oriented scoring actually garnered quite a good offensive rating due to the uptick in OReb as well as FTr.

The issue with that era was it wasnt condusive to high volume perimer scoring as the league discovered from late 90s. BUT MJ was an exception....he was a massive outlier for a wing player in terms of effeciency and volume scoring.

When the league stepped in and continually changed the rules to make life easier for perimeter players....it is UNFAIR to then compare MJ to todays perimeter players who have it a lot easier.

And to think MJs stats still comes out on top if compared to todays perimeter players (who have it easier) speaks volume
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#55 » by Mazter » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:39 pm

mysticOscar wrote:When the league stepped in and continually changed the rules to make life easier for perimeter players....it is UNFAIR to then compare MJ to todays perimeter players who have it a lot easier.

And to think MJs stats still comes out on top if compared to todays perimeter players (who have it easier) speaks volume

Well, for starters, the league changed the rules to open the game back up, not to make it easier on perimeter players. And the biggest effects didn't take place immediately, they took place when shooters started to flood the league. Besides, it it's too simple to conclude from the amount of drives that perimeter players have it easier. Perimeter drives is a thing, scoring from drives isn't. Jordan got the majority of his points from midrange, Which was a thing in a poor shooting league, but isn't anymore today. Three point shooting wasn't a thing for Jordan, it is a thing for the league now. Iso play was the thing back then, it's not anymore, getting open looks is a thing today. Lock down defense was a thing back than, rotation and help defense is today.

Almost everything what Jordan stood for back then has taken a back seat today. It's not a given he could implement it in today's game with all the available knowledge today. It was most efficient back then, it isn't anymore today. He would need to reinvent himself completely. And even if he would have it easier, he still would need to work harder to get his share.

Btw, I read your whole text and I understand the context you tried to bring forward. I just didn't feel to copy the whole text, since this is the part I firmly disagree with.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#56 » by Ainosterhaspie » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:59 pm

FrogBros4Life wrote:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:For instance, there is a perception that Jordan played in an era of great defenses and LeBron's era is one of weak defenses. But the league average DRtg from 85 to 98 was 107.5. The league average DRtg from 04-18 was 106.6. That suggests defenses were better during the main part of LeBron's career than during the main part of Jordan's career.

If we take out the tail end of Jordan's career when the league was getting tougher defensively and the tail end of LeBron's career when defenses have been getting weaker we see an even bigger gap showing LeBron facing tougher defense. League average DRtg 107.9 from 85-93 compared to 106.3 from 04 to 16.

What is happening is people are comparing the worst defenses LeBron has faced and the best defenses Jordan faced to conclude LeBron had it easier. That isn't accurate.


I don't think this quite proves what you are getting at. It's one thing to compare dRTGs (or oRTGs) of individual teams in the same season or same era, but the league average dRTG/oRTG is always relative to the other (re: they are the same number). In 2016 for example, the league average oRTG was 106.4. That means the league average dRTG is also 106.4.

So.....if you are saying the league average dRTG from 85-98 being 107.5 indicates that defense was worse than it was from 04-16 because that time period had a league average dRTG of 106.6....then you can use those same numbers to suggest that offense was inherently (or, organically) worse from 04-16 than it was from 85-98 (oRTG 107.5 > oRTG 106.6). And if offenses are more potent, it will be more difficult for defenses to stop teams from scoring. And if offenses are less potent, it will be easier for defenses to perform well against them. So, you're kind of using a knife that cuts both ways there.

If we look at things like Pace, PPG, eFG%, FTA/G, OPP TO% and PPG per 100 we see that defense, league wide, is more or less on par with the relative strength to league offense for both of these time periods. If anything, these numbers suggest that defense was a bit more stifling between any of the Jordan years you cited and any of the Lebron years you have cited.

Code: Select all

                Pace         PPG         eFG%         FTA/G        OPP TO%        PPGper100
              ===================================================================================
85-98:          96.7         104.8      49.02       27.9            14.4             107.48

85-93:          99.47        108.02     48.98       28.7            14.25            107.9

04-18:          92.86        99.74      49.68       24.03           13.48            106.58

04-18*:         92.97        99.99      49.75       24.14           13.45            106.72

04-16:          92.2         98.79      49.36       24.28           13.57            106.25

04-16*:         92.32        99         49.42       24.43           13.55            106.39


Both of the * rows exclude the lockout shortened 2012 season from the data

So, at our biggest discrepancy between PPGper100 there is a 1.65 point difference. At the narrowest point of comparison, the difference is 0.76. So scoring per possession is up anywhere from 3/4 of a single point to ~ 1 and 3/4 of a 2 pt FG during Jordan's time. But the players in the Jordan years you cited were also attempting about 4.5 more FT's a game.

And in all of the Lebron years you cited, teams shot better from the field against live defenders, and defenders forced offensive teams into less turnovers than any of the Jordan years. Again, I think league wide the relative strength of the defense is comparable between eras. You can make a case that defenses were a bit tougher in Jordan's years, but not to the degree some might argue. I don't really see a case for the defenses in the league during Lebron's career being tougher in any absolute sense though.

+1 for the good read.

Bolded is my position. I'm not trying to argue that defense was tougher during LeBron's era, just that the common perception that it was much tougher during Jordan's era isn't well supported.
My GOATs 1.LBJ/2.Jordan/3.KAJ/4.Duncan/5.Magic
Russell and Wilt grandfathered in at 6 and 7.

Yes I watched Jordan live, started paying attention to basketball in the bad boys era.

I respect Jordan way more now than I did when he played.
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Re: When will someone surpass MJ's 4 years consecutive sketch? 

Post#57 » by mysticOscar » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:28 am

Mazter wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:When the league stepped in and continually changed the rules to make life easier for perimeter players....it is UNFAIR to then compare MJ to todays perimeter players who have it a lot easier.

And to think MJs stats still comes out on top if compared to todays perimeter players (who have it easier) speaks volume

Well, for starters, the league changed the rules to open the game back up, not to make it easier on perimeter players. And the biggest effects didn't take place immediately, they took place when shooters started to flood the league. Besides, it it's too simple to conclude from the amount of drives that perimeter players have it easier. Perimeter drives is a thing, scoring from drives isn't. Jordan got the majority of his points from midrange, Which was a thing in a poor shooting league, but isn't anymore today. Three point shooting wasn't a thing for Jordan, it is a thing for the league now. Iso play was the thing back then, it's not anymore, getting open looks is a thing today. Lock down defense was a thing back than, rotation and help defense is today.

Almost everything what Jordan stood for back then has taken a back seat today. It's not a given he could implement it in today's game with all the available knowledge today. It was most efficient back then, it isn't anymore today. He would need to reinvent himself completely. And even if he would have it easier, he still would need to work harder to get his share.

Btw, I read your whole text and I understand the context you tried to bring forward. I just didn't feel to copy the whole text, since this is the part I firmly disagree with.


A league that was modified to recreate MJ type players is not suited for MJ?

MJ who was arguably one the greatest if not the greatest perimeter player at driving to the hoop, quickest 1st step for his height and who was elite at taking care of the ball, who had arguably a goat midrange and high iq among many other things ?

He would excel more in todays open space league and i cant see how teams can stop him today.

But your entitled to your opinion

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