The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread

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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#121 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:53 pm

limbo wrote:If Luka is gonna play like this you don't really need that much around him honestly, especially on the offensive end. Although it would be nice if KP actually produced as advertised, that is an all-star level player, instead of playing way below average. But he gets a pass for this regular season due to coming back from a long lay off.

As i was saying. Luka is currently passing his audition for the Batman role, being a LeBron/Harden type of player. This role means he's going to be having the ball and consequently, pulling the strings the majority of time on offense. As such, the right fit becomes more important than just stacking talent on talent.

For example, if Giannis somehow ended in Dallas, the ability to maximize both Luka and Giannis on the same team becomes a problem, because both need the ball in their hands to squeeze league-leading impact out of them. In this case, the question becomes who sacrifices what and how. I'd rather just give Luka the ball to do what he does, and bring two quality starters that complement his game rather than going all out for a Top 20 NBA player.

There's actually not that many superstars in the league that could play 2nd fiddle to Luka, while still getting the most out of their impact. Guys like Lillard, Kemba, Kyrie, Westbrook... honestly, i'd rather have role players instead of picking one of these guys to pair with Luka.

Luka is leading the best offense in the league right now, with Porzingis struggling. If there are moves that need to be made, it's getting guys who make their impact on the defensive end. Someone like Horford would be ideal. Great defensively, can shoot, great screener and passer. If not, i'd like an Isaac, Adebayo, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams... that type of player. The same with wings. Three and D guys over stacking all-star talent to the brim with diminishing returns and no bench.


It's fascinating how we're seeing this top tier of offensive players slice through defenses with statistical efficacy unmatched by previous eras...and yet we're not seeing team ORtg's continue to rise. While I think these LeBron-style unipolar stars are clearly a very good way to build an offense, in general, I remain on the side of a more egalitarian approach to team play having the higher ceiling.

But there are exceptions to this. The gold standards for offense in the pre-Kerr Warriors eras were led by genius floor generals (Magic, Nash). I look at Luka and if I were Dallas, I'd be building around him having faith that he can be one of those guys. Heck, the way he's started this season, he already looks like one, and you have to think he can improve at least one more tier.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#122 » by eminence » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:13 pm

Zero doubt Dallas should act as if they have an all-timer of a prospect on the roster, cause they do. Dude's already ready to lead a contending offense. Small caveat for RS play, but I have no long-term doubts for the playoffs, the 1st time can throw a guy off, but after that I'm certain he'll be fine. PHX/SAC 100% made an all-time blunder.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#123 » by Ascrilas » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:21 pm

Doncic has GOAT ceiling. Don't even think that's a hyperbole anymore. Obviously, ceiling and expected career value are not the same, but if he doesn't end up at least a Top 15 player once it's all said and done, I'd be very disappointed.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#124 » by ardee » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:22 pm

eminence wrote:Zero doubt Dallas should act as if they have an all-timer of a prospect on the roster, cause they do. Dude's already ready to lead a contending offense. Small caveat for RS play, but I have no long-term doubts for the playoffs, the 1st time can throw a guy off, but after that I'm certain he'll be fine. PHX/SAC 100% made an all-time blunder.


Even at the time I was shocked that he went third. I had been following him as a prospect in Europe vaguely and he was the only one who was being talked about as having all-time potential. I thought he was a lock for no. 1.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#125 » by Peregrine01 » Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:44 pm

ardee wrote:
eminence wrote:Zero doubt Dallas should act as if they have an all-timer of a prospect on the roster, cause they do. Dude's already ready to lead a contending offense. Small caveat for RS play, but I have no long-term doubts for the playoffs, the 1st time can throw a guy off, but after that I'm certain he'll be fine. PHX/SAC 100% made an all-time blunder.


Even at the time I was shocked that he went third. I had been following him as a prospect in Europe vaguely and he was the only one who was being talked about as having all-time potential. I thought he was a lock for no. 1.


I think way too many GMs still draft based on perceived potential, generally backed by some view of the prospect’s ethereal athleticism. In truth, the combination of IQ, feel for the game and skill is far more rare - and far more useful.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#126 » by limbo » Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:24 pm

I think the improvements to his body, athleticism and conditioning in the offseason are getting so MASSIVELY underrated in the wake of how this season is going. People are getting mesmerized by his IQ, feel for the game and skill, which is understandable, but Luka had these things for years now. Imo, there are two things that happened coming into this season that made it possible for Luka to make this type of jump.

1.) he was handed the keys to the team and everybody on the Mavs accepted it and followed in line

2.) he is just moving way better out there, which means he puts himself more frequently in positions to use his IQ/skillset.

I swear, i don't remember Luka being this bouncy last season, now he's flying all over the court and pulling these dribble moves where his legs are moving at all directions in light speed.

Too many people have written off Luka's athleticism, forgetting the dude was just 19 years old last season, wasn't taking optimal care of his body to begin with, had minimal NBA training under his belt, and still had room to grow athletically.

We are now seeing what this guy can do when combining his already all-time great skill & feel, with a body that feels more willing to cooperate with his mind. It opens way more avenues.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#127 » by GSP » Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:05 am

eminence wrote:Zero doubt Dallas should act as if they have an all-timer of a prospect on the roster, cause they do. Dude's already ready to lead a contending offense. Small caveat for RS play, but I have no long-term doubts for the playoffs, the 1st time can throw a guy off, but after that I'm certain he'll be fine. PHX/SAC 100% made an all-time blunder.


I wonder how much longer we're going to have to pretend that Luka for Trae/Reddish was a win win trade too.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#128 » by eminence » Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:12 am

GSP wrote:
eminence wrote:Zero doubt Dallas should act as if they have an all-timer of a prospect on the roster, cause they do. Dude's already ready to lead a contending offense. Small caveat for RS play, but I have no long-term doubts for the playoffs, the 1st time can throw a guy off, but after that I'm certain he'll be fine. PHX/SAC 100% made an all-time blunder.


I wonder how much longer we're going to have to pretend that Luka for Trae/Reddish was a win win trade too.


I don't think it was a win win by any means, but I also am not sure I would put it into the all-time blunder category. Though picking Reddish with that 2019 pick doesn't make it any better as of now at least.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#129 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:58 am

Doctor MJ wrote:I also keep thinking about Phoenix and Sacramento. People talk about passing on Jordan, but those teams had good reasons for the moves they made. You can't know everything. Here you had an opportunity to draft the #1 prospect in the draft, you had inside information at that #1 prospect from your coach/GM respectively, and you went against picking him for 1) a guy who looks like what people thought was the ideal NBA player 20 years ago but isn't or 2) a guy most don't see as a Top 5 prospect. I honestly don't know if there's another draft pick that is as embarrassing as these two, period.

I think we should be fair and not just go by hindsight thinking that professionals are just idiots.
As much as I really liked Doncic there were "some" potential red flags in its game. The guy managed to just shrug them away and is overdeliverying all expectations, but they were there:
- we couldn't be sure his game could so easily translate against more athletic defenders. His iso was overreliant on his stepback three, how much could he take advantage of modern NBA switches?
- given his rather floor game, how good could he actually finish against NBA rim protectors?
And the alternatives have actually been very productive rookies, who could develop themselves into All NBA calibers.
To me Doncic's ceiling was a bigger Steve Nash, but I can see, overlapping all ranges of career value of the top 3 guys, we can defend the #3 pick
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#130 » by WarriorGM » Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:32 am

The professionals are just idiots.

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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#131 » by frica » Fri Nov 22, 2019 12:53 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I also keep thinking about Phoenix and Sacramento. People talk about passing on Jordan, but those teams had good reasons for the moves they made. You can't know everything. Here you had an opportunity to draft the #1 prospect in the draft, you had inside information at that #1 prospect from your coach/GM respectively, and you went against picking him for 1) a guy who looks like what people thought was the ideal NBA player 20 years ago but isn't or 2) a guy most don't see as a Top 5 prospect. I honestly don't know if there's another draft pick that is as embarrassing as these two, period.

I think we should be fair and not just go by hindsight thinking that professionals are just idiots.
As much as I really liked Doncic there were "some" potential red flags in its game. The guy managed to just shrug them away and is overdeliverying all expectations, but they were there:
- we couldn't be sure his game could so easily translate against more athletic defenders. His iso was overreliant on his stepback three, how much could he take advantage of modern NBA switches?
- given his rather floor game, how good could he actually finish against NBA rim protectors?
And the alternatives have actually been very productive rookies, who could develop themselves into All NBA calibers.
To me Doncic's ceiling was a bigger Steve Nash, but I can see, overlapping all ranges of career value of the top 3 guys, we can defend the #3 pick


Doncic's athleticism was underrated to begin with.
His speed has always been above average compared to peers his age.
A 19 year old being a bit slower than 23 year olds in their athletic prime really doesn't mean ****.

And regarding modern NBA switches, the players are more athletic but tactically and strategically Eurobasket isn't any worse than the NBA. There's a good argument for Euroleague having the best coach of all time (Željko Obradović)

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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#132 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:07 pm

Luka’s first step is extremely slow for a lead scorer. He is basically never able to blow by a defender and relies on strength and craft to squeeze past. I personally thought he was the best prospect since Davis but compared to Harden (who his scoring skill set is often compared to) he is extremely lacking in burst. Based on that it’s not totally unreasonable if people didn’t project him to be a top-level scorer, let alone what he’s up to now.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#133 » by Sublime187 » Fri Nov 22, 2019 1:45 pm

Am I the only one that thinks it is too early to say he has GOAT potential? I mean he has looked great so far but teams will also start to figure things out on him as he adapts his game. How well does he perform in the playoffs when teams will focus on him? Guys like Harden, Giannis and even KD before the Warriors were quite subpar in the playoff and that has ultimately lowered most peoples projections and rankings for them.

His conditioning is not great, will he ever improve on this? There is no guarantee. And right now his defense is very lacking, if we go in the Harden thread every second post is about "yea he is averaging 40 PPG but his defense sucks." I really think he has to show signs of improvement on that end before he can be considered an ATG potential player. Right now teams are hunting for him and that could be a problem.

IMO it is just way way too early to say because anything happen and we have seen players stagnate.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#134 » by igorbianch » Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:42 pm

I think a good comparison would be Luka vs Embiid.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#135 » by Jim Naismith » Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:16 pm

Luka leads the league in

    PER at 33.2
    WS/48 at .321
    BPM at 14.1
    VORP at 2.1

He's also #1 in MVP probability.

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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#136 » by kayess » Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:28 pm

So it might be too early but...

On O, guy is basically a LeBron comp (except nowhere as good attacking the rim as young Bron due to his non-existent burst, but gets young Bron calls anyway when he tries to dribble to the rim). His D is never going to be as good as Bron's but his jumper is waaaaay ahead of him.

Does that not project to a GOAT ceiling? What am I missing here? [Apologies; haven't really had time to watch Luka so will gladly be proven wrong]
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#137 » by Heej » Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:38 pm

kayess wrote:So it might be too early but...

On O, guy is basically a LeBron comp (except nowhere as good attacking the rim as young Bron due to his non-existent burst, but gets young Bron calls anyway when he tries to dribble to the rim). His D is never going to be as good as Bron's but his jumper is waaaaay ahead of him.

Does that not project to a GOAT ceiling? What am I missing here? [Apologies; haven't really had time to watch Luka so will gladly be proven wrong]

Sounds insane to say but a Lebron minus athleticism plus shooting handles and IQ really might project to that ceiling. At least on offense he might end up the GOAT offensive player. His defense really is gonna depend on his motor. He clearly has a great motor to be doing what he's doing but he's gonna have to increase that to ridiculous levels to make up the defensive gap imo.

I don't think his help defense is as special as Bird's was, which I'm thinking will have to be the minimum for Luka to reach GOAT ceiling. He also doesn't seem to have crazy good hands like Bird but we shall see. I'm slightly worried teams will go at him like Curry in the playoffs and he won't be able to hold up the way Curry (who's perpetually underrated on defense) was able to. He may need a special team of defenders around him. Bird looked like a far superior athlete at his peak compared to Luka imo which helped him a lot and I think people discounted that about him.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#138 » by MisterHibachi » Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:58 pm

Heej wrote:
kayess wrote:So it might be too early but...

On O, guy is basically a LeBron comp (except nowhere as good attacking the rim as young Bron due to his non-existent burst, but gets young Bron calls anyway when he tries to dribble to the rim). His D is never going to be as good as Bron's but his jumper is waaaaay ahead of him.

Does that not project to a GOAT ceiling? What am I missing here? [Apologies; haven't really had time to watch Luka so will gladly be proven wrong]

Sounds insane to say but a Lebron minus athleticism plus shooting handles and IQ really might project to that ceiling. At least on offense he might end up the GOAT offensive player. His defense really is gonna depend on his motor. He clearly has a great motor to be doing what he's doing but he's gonna have to increase that to ridiculous levels to make up the defensive gap imo.

I don't think his help defense is as special as Bird's was, which I'm thinking will have to be the minimum for Luka to reach GOAT ceiling. He also doesn't seem to have crazy good hands like Bird but we shall see. I'm slightly worried teams will go at him like Curry in the playoffs and he won't be able to hold up the way Curry (who's perpetually underrated on defense) was able to. He may need a special team of defenders around him. Bird looked like a far superior athlete at his peak compared to Luka imo which helped him a lot and I think people discounted that about him.


By plus IQ are you saying you think Doncic has a better BBIQ than LeBron?

As for defense, I think his size already gives him a higher ceiling than Curry, and if his rebounding is for real, he could be a Dirk type positive defender by virtue of his defensive rebounding.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#139 » by AdagioPace » Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:03 pm

his ceiling is Stephen Curry imo, who redifined what an offensive player with neutral defense (or slightly lower) can do. If you want even Bird/Magic are good comp by virtue of their similar size. I would exclude Lebron from this comparison.
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Re: The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread 

Post#140 » by SideshowBob » Sat Nov 23, 2019 5:12 pm

kayess wrote:So it might be too early but...

On O, guy is basically a LeBron comp (except nowhere as good attacking the rim as young Bron due to his non-existent burst, but gets young Bron calls anyway when he tries to dribble to the rim). His D is never going to be as good as Bron's but his jumper is waaaaay ahead of him.

Does that not project to a GOAT ceiling? What am I missing here? [Apologies; haven't really had time to watch Luka so will gladly be proven wrong]


I was going to do a write-up, but it felt like too much for imprecise forecasting.

Just generalizing potential:

Peak: I have 18 LBJ as GOAT off peak, but its a neg def year. Luka seems ahead of Lebron on off and would track to peak higher. If his defense can stay close to break-even when his offense hits its peak, that's a contender for GOAT peak/ceiling. If he surprises down the line defensively, it becomes an even stronger case.

Career: Longevity is what will matter here. As things stand today, he looks like the best 20 y/o NBA player of all time, so that should line him up for a top 10 prime. At that point, he just needs to stay at that +6.5-8 impact level for enough years to outdo whatever Lebron will finish at. This is of course harder to project than the above.
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