#31 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

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#31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#1 » by LA Bird » Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:18 pm

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77
6) Tim Duncan 2002-03
7) Larry Bird 1985-86
8) Bill Russell 1963-64
9) Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94
10) Magic Johnson 1986-87
11) Kevin Garnett 2003-04
12) Julius Erving 1975-76
13) Bill Walton 1976-77
14) Oscar Robertson 1963-64
15) Stephen Curry 2015-16
16) Dwyane Wade 2008-09
17) Jerry West 1965-66
18) David Robinson 1994-95
19) Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11
20) Kobe Bryant 2007-08
21) Tracy McGrady 2002-03
22) Moses Malone 1982-83
23) Patrick Ewing 1989-90
24) Kevin Durant 2013-14
25) Russell Westbrook 2016-17
26) Charles Barkley 1992-93
27) Kawhi Leonard 2018-19
28) Chris Paul 2007-08
29) George Mikan 1948-49
30) Steve Nash 2004-05

Please include at least 1 sentence of reasoning for each of your 3 picks. A simple list of names will not be counted.
If you're repeating votes from previous rounds, copy and paste the reasoning because "see previous thread for explanation" will not be counted as a valid vote.

Final deadline: 1pm October 24 Eastern Time
The deadline will be extended by 24 hours up to twice if there is less than 12 votes or there is a tie for first.


The Voting System:

Everyone gives their 1st choice (4.5 points), 2nd choice (3 points), and 3rd choice (2 points). Highest point-total wins the round.
You can use your 3 choices to vote for more than 1 season of the same player (if you think that the best 3 seasons among the players left belong all to the same player, nothing is stopping you from using all you 3 choices on that player), but you can't continue voting for other seasons of that player once he wins and gets his spot. The final list will be 1 season per player.

Thank you for your participation!

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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#2 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:18 pm

Well, took much longer than I would have liked (and in Barkley’s case, think is remotely reasonable), but at least I can move on.

Next few names under consideration for me are Karl Malone, Giannis, Pettit, Reed, Frazier, Harden, and Gilmore. Maybe Barry and Kidd after that.

With Karl Malone in mind, I will repeat my question from the previous thread:

How do 1997 Malone voters (or likely voters) resolve that year being clearly one of his weakest individual postseasons, specifically in comparison to 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998 (two years sandwiching it!). Yes, he won MVP, but it is not like his regular season performance was that far ahead of those other four years (at least not by enough to overlook one of his absolute worst postseason runs). I favour 1992 personally, but I could allow myself to be swayed by any of those other three. 1997, though, in my eyes has no real case as his true peak because of that egregious playoff dip.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#3 » by Odinn21 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:56 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:Well, took much longer than I would have liked (and in Barkley’s case, think is remotely reasonable), but at least I can move on.

Next few names under consideration for me are Karl Malone, Giannis, Pettit, Reed, Frazier, Harden, and Gilmore. Maybe Barry and Kidd after that.

With Karl Malone in mind, I will repeat my question from the previous thread:

How do 1997 Malone voters (or likely voters) resolve that year being clearly one of his weakest individual postseasons, specifically in comparison to 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998 (two years sandwiching it!). Yes, he won MVP, but it is not like his regular season performance was that far ahead of those other four years (at least not by enough to overlook one of his absolute worst postseason runs). I favour 1992 personally, but I could allow myself to be swayed by any of those other three. 1997, though, in my eyes has no real case as his true peak because of that egregious playoff dip.

I consider 1992 as Karl Malone's peak and I think he should've made the list before #31.

This was my vote in #26 thread;
Odinn21 wrote:3. 1992 Karl Malone
I think I should expect some conversation about this pick but not considering him at this point is just bizarre to me.
I'll make a comparison for you guys to showcase why I think he deserves to be included. Though it'll be based on boxscore numbers, but still. He deserves better than getting treated like he never existed on this level.
In 1992 playoffs Karl Malone produced 27.13% of his team's entire eff value. 30.48% if we adjust it for minutes over 16 games.
That 27.13% is on par with MJ's 1993 run (27.25%), Hakeem's 1995 run (27.25%), Shaq's 2001 run (26.94%) among title winning runs. Better than Kawhi's 2019 run with 25.81%.
That 30.48% is on par with Shaq's 2001 run (30.60%) and LeBron's 2013 run (30.44%). Though making an adjustment for minutes really helps Kawhi, his ratio would become 31.66%. But still not light years ahead. Also the drastic change in mpg dynamics has a role in this.

Barkley getting mentions for 1990 and 1993. Here's Chuck's number in 1993 playoffs for a comparison; 26.87% and 30.70% over 24 games. Not much different from Malone's 27.13% and 30.48%, eh?

I'm aware that I only talked about playoffs.
But 1992 Jazz had 5.70 SRS (3rd in the league), 6.6 net rating, 57-25 expected W-L record and outscored their opponents by 6.27%.
Considering 1993 Suns had 6.27 SRS (3rd in the league), 6.6 net rating, 57-25 expected W-L record and outscored their opponents by 6.24%, I don't think I can knock Malone down for lacking regular season impact/success.


With our criterias, I don't think any other season stands out like 1992 does. Very solid regular season numbers and impact. Very good playoffs display. And for once, Malone wasn't one of the reasons of defeat. The Blazers were arguably the most talented team in the league in that particular season and Malone performed on a high level against them. It was Terry Porter going ham on Stockton. I find it hard to label the outcome of the season as Malone's shortcomings.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Barry 75, epic carry job
Frazier 73, orchestrated one of the most team oriented teams of all time
Pettit 58, possibly the greatest 4th quarter Finals performance of all time to carry St Louis past the Celtics (Russell injured or it would be higher)
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#5 » by No-more-rings » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:42 pm

1. 19 Harden- Same reasoning as before, highly efficient volume scorer, creative playmaker, carried the Rockets to 53 wins and 2nd ranked offense with a declining Paul, and the worst cast he's had since 2016.

2. 2018 Harden- Going with this on the belief he's 98% of his 2019 self, just didn't have the same green light or didn't need it.

3. 19 Giannis- I gotta say going into the playoffs, and probably even after the Celtics series i probably would’ve voted him right up there with Kobe and Dirk. His regular season is probably better than any of their’s honestly, or at worst slightly behind. However you’re going to drop a good bit when you get exposed like that by a certain defense. He couldn’t score against the Raptors, and his playmaking was non impactful imo. His strong defense was the reason he was more than just an average player in the series.

Harden may often underperform a bit, but i don’t think we’ve looked at him in the past 2-3 years and seen some fatal flaw though. His 3 just doesn’t seem to go down as easy against strong defenses, but his playmaking and foul drawing is still there. He blows Giannis away as an offensive player.

Harden blows Karl Malone away as an offensive player. And he wasn’t a legit anchor on defense to make it up i’m sorry. And to be a career 52.6 ts% in the playoffs when you have a great playmaker like Stockton at your side the whole time it’s just unacceptable.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#6 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:20 pm

^ In the 1992 playoffs he put up 29/11 on 61.8% true shooting (+8.7 rTS), which is securely better scoring than any Harden postseason. That is not me trying to convince you to vote for him; just pointing out the year where he did manage to significantly elevate his performance in the playoffs.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#7 » by No-more-rings » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:32 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:^ In the 1992 playoffs he put up 29/11 on 61.8% true shooting (+8.7 rTS), which is securely better scoring than any Harden postseason. That is not me trying to convince you to vote for him; just pointing out the year where he did manage to significantly elevate his performance in the playoffs.

Yeah i get it. But I think larger samples give you a better picture of what they really are as a player. Like we have such a large sample of him for his prime in the playoffs..from 88-98 pretty reasonably his prime imo, he had a 53.4 ts%. It’s not bad per say, but the 61.8 starts to look more like an outlier than anything else. Hot streak perhaps? I just have a hard time believing there was something so different about his game in that year leading to better efficiency. His efficiency wasn’t bad, it was probably roughly average for that span, and probably similar to Duncan’s if you looked at his prime but then is his defense good enough to warrant this spot? Maybe it is, but i have a hard time believing any of his years to be more impressive than what Giannis just did or Harden for that matter.

Edit I was actually kind of surprised to find out Duncan averaged a 56 ts% from 99-07. I kind of always thought his 57.7 % in 03 was kind of outlier for him but i guess not that much actually.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#8 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:45 pm

Harden’s playoff efficiency with the Rockets is also hovering only a bit above average. And Giannis barely has a playoff reputation yet (although I understand your angle on him is somewhat different).

I do get your general point, but we are hardly above voting in outlier seasons, right? Again, speaking for the sake of discussion and not for actual persuasion.

And yeah, the question of whether 1992 Malone’s decent but unspectacular defence, lack of high-level passing, and extraordinary scoring outweighs Harden’s passing advantage or Giannis’s defence is the primary issue, and I do not think there is a definite answer to it.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#9 » by No-more-rings » Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:53 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:Harden’s playoff efficiency with the Rockets is also hovering only a bit above average. And Giannis barely has a playoff reputation yet (although I understand your angle on him is somewhat different).

I do get your general point, but we are hardly above voting in outlier seasons, right? Again, speaking for the sake of discussion and not for actual persuasion.

And yeah, the question of whether 1992 Malone’s decent but unspectacular defence, lack of high-level passing, and extraordinary scoring outweighs Harden’s passing advantage or Giannis’s defence is the primary issue, and I do not think there is a definite answer to it.

It’s probably splitting hairs. I guess.

But aside from Harden’s usual drop in ts%, is there any reason to believe the Rockets have really underperformed in the playoffs? Particularly offensively? Like they’ve lost to the Warriors damn near every year, Spurs in 2017 but that was a really good team with Kawhi doin his thing. Maybe they could’ve beaten them, but I can’t really fault him for 2018 or 2019 i just can’t.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:33 pm

1st ballot - '19 Giannis Antetokounmpo
A fairly dominant offensive player during the rs (39.3 pts/100 possessions @ +8.4% rTS, plus 8.4 ast/100 and a respectable 9.43% Modified TOV%). Finished nearly 77% at the rim while getting roughly 4 of every 7 of his attempts at said rim, and also having a .550 FTAr. I realize rules/officiating have made things easier in regards to getting to the rim or line, but those numbers even out-do Lebron last year and put Harden to shame.
Still easily an All-Star level offensive player in the playoffs, too, while arguably being a top 2 DPOY candidate and anchor (or at worst co-anchor [with Lopez]) throughout the whole season: were the league's best defense in the rs, and also performed as a 103.1 DRtg in the playoffs (which is -8.6, relative to the average offense being faced in the playoffs).


2nd ballot - '97 Karl Malone
imo, wherever Barkley is for peak, Malone should not be far behind. Peak Barkley (I went w/ '90 as his peak, btw) was one of the most dominant/reliable post scorers of all-time, far more devastating in this aspect than Karl. He was also hyper-elite on the offensive glass, and fantastic in transition (and unlike Malone, could also be the guy LEADING the break, being a very good transition passing forward). But '97 Karl was better at basically better at everything else, imo: he was a clearly better mid-range shooter, better FT-shooter, better half-court passer (they ran A LOT of off-ball screens and back-picks for cutting guards, with Malone hitting them with precision passes from the elbow; while also being fantastic passing out of the double-team), better [than any version of Barkley prior to '93, and equal(ish) to '93 and after version] defensive rebounder, and notably better defender (very crafty low-post defender, active hands, and decent pnr defender, capable of moving his feet on the perimeter).

Yeah, having Stockton to set you up sometimes certainly helps you look good; but let's not overlook that Stockton having someone like Malone----a guy who sets a fantastic screen, who has a great sense of when to roll and when to pop [and can function/score from either], who has great hands on the move, who finishes well at the rim, and who is also probably the best transition running PF in history prior to Giannis----was certainly very helpful in making him [Stockton] look good, too.

I mean, if we replace Malone with Tristan Thompson, does Stockton's career look as glossy? There's definite give and take in their relationship.


3rd ballot - '11 Dwight Howard
I reserve the right to change my 3rd ballot in this or later threads (Baylor, Harden, Davis, McAdoo all look like good candidates to me at this point, too; '09 Dwight is also a good option [or even '10]), but yeah......I'm gonna break the ice on Dwight (who I think doesn't get enough credit here for how damn good he was from '09-'12).
Really a bit of an athletic freak: though only about 6'9" without shoes, he has kinda long arms/reach, freakish ups for a guy that size, and a tremendous amount of strength (particularly in the upper body). Decent foot-speed for his size, too.

On offense, he put that athleticism to good use mostly by way of offensive rebounding (where he was near '19 Rudy Gobert territory), and in finishing at the rim. He's basically the GOAT finisher outside of prime Shaq and perhaps peak Robinson (finishing >75% from <3 ft in '10 and '11, despite huge volume there--->like 50+% of his shot load between the two years, and often going thru 2 or 3 defenders and getting And1's). His FTAr is a ridiculous .877 in '11 (is higher other years), as teams adopted a hack-a-Shaq strategy when he got the ball deep under the rim (because he was basically unstoppable otherwise if you let him get the rock that low).
He also by this point had a little bit of a simple jump-hook (with either hand) that he used quite regularly (was probably at his peak form for this particular move in '11).
He otherwise doesn't have much going for him offensively: has no jump-shot or range to speak, limited [though not terrible] FT shooter, limited repertoire of post-moves outside of the one I mentioned, not much of a passer, and a touch turnover-prone.

Still, to be clear, I'm not trying to imply offensive mediocrity on his part (many of his critics attempt to do so, and it's absolutely untrue, imo). His hands, strength, explosiveness, etc, allow him to be in a GOAT-level tier of finishers when he gets the ball near the rim, and that cannot be trivialized. And if taking a hack-a-Howard strategy, peak Howard's not as big a liability at the line as most versions of Shaq, Wilt, or Russell.
The Magic structured their offense around his inside presence, often spreading the floor with four shooters around him, essentially daring teams to not guard him one-on-one.

And defensively, well......while he doesn't have the footwork or IQ of someone like Tim Duncan [by a long shot], his athleticism again can make up for a multitude of sins (both his, or those of teammates). He anchored a -5.3 rDRTG with a cast of [in descending order of minutes]: Jameer Nelson, Brandon Bass, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu, JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, aging Gilbert Arenas, and Quentin Richardson. They were #1 in the league in DREB% and 4th in opp eFG%. Those points literally scream that peak Dwight was an all-time level defensive anchor.

They were also above average offensively with that cast, btw, and won 52 games with a +4.92 SRS. They lost in the first round [6 games] to a good Hawks team, but can't lay it on Dwight: although he did avg 5.5 topg in the series, he also averaged 27 ppg on 67.7% TS and grabbed 15.5 rpg, while helping to hold the Hawks to lowly 101.6 ORtg (Orlando actually outscored them in the series). Dwight's entire supporting cast pretty much vanished in that series, though.


Harden, Anthony Davis, Baylor, McAdoo, maybe Gilmore, Pettit......all worth serious consideration here, too.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#11 » by cecilthesheep » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:55 am

liamliam1234 wrote:With Karl Malone in mind, I will repeat my question from the previous thread:

How do 1997 Malone voters (or likely voters) resolve that year being clearly one of his weakest individual postseasons, specifically in comparison to 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998 (two years sandwiching it!). Yes, he won MVP, but it is not like his regular season performance was that far ahead of those other four years (at least not by enough to overlook one of his absolute worst postseason runs). I favour 1992 personally, but I could allow myself to be swayed by any of those other three. 1997, though, in my eyes has no real case as his true peak because of that egregious playoff dip.

So there's a couple things. In general, I think it's easy to see Malone as pretty much the same player throughout the 90s if you just look at his stat lines, but I think late-career Malone was actually a much, much better player because of the levels he raised his passing and defense to. He became a much more consistent helper and much nastier man defender, as well as developing himself into one of the great passers out of the post. None of that was all the way there in 1992.

Now as far as the specific playoff run - I don't see playoff runs as hugely indicative of player quality in any given year, the sample size is just so small. An all-time great run can give a season an edge, and a real dud can handicap it, but in general if it's within a certain distance of the player's average it doesn't make a huge difference to me. And I just don't think Malone's 1997 was that horribly bad. The efficiency is clearly not great, but Malone was an inherently inefficient playoff performer for a variety of reasons. A guy with a career playoff TS% of .520 shoots .501 and takes his team to game 6 of the Finals, I don't consider that unusually awful. And he was actually even less efficient (.498) in 1996, which you've pointed to as a good year.

If I were requiring a good playoff showing, i'd sooner vote for 2000 than 1992, just because of the things Malone had added to his game by that point, but I think he was in better physical shape in '97 with pretty much the same skill set. Most of his standard and advanced reg-season stats peak that year, and not that this is everything but he did win MVP, so 1997 seems like the best choice to me.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#12 » by No-more-rings » Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:41 pm

So i can see we’re at the point where there’s just so many guys in contention for these spots, is there any chance Jokic makes this list if we only go to 40? I mean he was in many people’s top 5 last year in what was a stacked year for top level talent. After Harden and Giannis I’ll start looking guys like Dwight, Elgin Baylor, Pettit(wow just realized he isn’t even getting a ton of traction for a guy who’s generally ranked between 21-30 all time or so, etc.

I never really realized how low some guys could be before doing this list. I mean we have Drexler too not getting any votes yet. A lot of great peaks will be left off this list sadly.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#13 » by liamliam1234 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:07 pm

I would semi-seriously consider Jokic, but yeah, the name cluster makes it difficult.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#14 » by 70sFan » Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:31 pm

I won't vote in this thread, but liamliam1234 asked me for long post about Artis Gilmore, so I decided to create something like short breakdown. I hope that it won't be seen as a waste of space in this thread.

I will start with offensive breakdown.

Artis Gilmore was a physical marvel. Stood at 7'2 and weighed lean 240 lbs, he brought to mind young Wilt from Kansas. He was not only large but also very athletic. He could shut down the paint and dunk on entire teams on the other end of the floor. At the beginning of his career in ABA he was quite raw, but showed huge potential. He already had his unstoppable jumphook to the middle

https://streamable.com/14vzz
https://streamable.com/shlmz (here you can see him shooting it over Wilt Chamberlain, he looks comfortable doing it even though Wilt was even bigger and longer than him)

and nice counter move in up and under:
https://streamable.com/7c2d1

He wasn't the most refined post player early though and he didn't rely on his brute strength like he did later. Here you can see examples of shots that he wouldn't attempt in the early 1980s, look that he didn't try to find contact:

https://streamable.com/1c03k

The first attempt would be automatic dunk later in his career, but Gilmore wasn't very physical early on. Another limitation in his game was that he didn't play in the left block at all, which made him easier to contain. Here is rare occasion of young Gilmore attempting a skyhook from the left block:

https://streamable.com/fqvpj

His size still made him very tough to defend and any try of denying the ball without additional help was a murder:

https://streamable.com/zoql1

At the beginning of his career Gilmore was used mostly as a high-post distributor which is really strange to me. Most of 1973-74 Colonels plays looked like this ones with Gilmore standing in the high post and looking for cutters or Issel down low:

https://streamable.com/r252p

Gilmore didn't have elite vision and he missed some key passes like this:

https://streamable.com/yc763

Though he wasn't terrible passer and he could create for others in certain situations:

https://streamable.com/6ncr9

He had a decent jumpshot from the FT line:

https://streamable.com/3akbr
https://streamable.com/4fri6

He could also attack from the high post with decent quickness for such a big man:

https://streamable.com/kub2e

High post game still limited his efficiency because he wasn't fluid ball handler and his face-up game was quite limited:

https://streamable.com/v89r2

One positive thing about this strategy - Gilmore's huge body allowed him to set very strong screens that gave shooters a lot of space to operate:

https://streamable.com/xggq5

When you watch plays like this though, you should know that Artis strength was on the inside:

https://streamable.com/3xnhv

It didn't happen though until 1975 season. Gilmore was a few years older then and he started to develop his game while maintaining his physical and athletic traits.

My second post will be about peak Gilmore offense and NBA adjustements.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:12 pm

I want to drum up some more support [or short of that, at least draw out some coherent and internally consistent arguments for why not] for '19 Giannis Antetokounmpo.

I note '19 Kawhi Leonard was voted in four places ago. Now, I'll acknowledge that I tend to consider the rs more heavily than most, but I'm gonna put a couple bullet points out there.....

By the box-based numbers, Giannis wasn't far behind Kawhi even in the playoffs:
PER - Kawhi 27.90, Giannis 26.45
WS/48 - Kawhi .2492, Giannis .2187
BPM - Kawhi 8.59, Giannis 8.96

Given the playoff performance wasn't a massive gap overall, how does one justify a big gap between '19 Kawhi and '19 Giannis, considering Giannis was MUCH better during the rs, while missing 12 fewer games to boot?
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#16 » by euroleague » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:04 pm

Kawhi and WB voted in too early for my taste.

1. Karl Malone 98 - underrated passer and a player who can adjust to any system, his 98 season was dominant in the regular season and he beat his peers against tough defenses in the postseason. Should’ve won a ring except for a missed foul.

2. Isiah Thomas 90 - dominant postseason, where his team beat the Bulls with peak MJ and prime Pippen, largely thanks to his strategizing and leadership. He dominated Terry Porter in the Finals.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo 19 - great season in both ends, he struggled against ‘the wall’, and I think once he learns to pass out of double teams he may be unstoppable this season.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#17 » by liamliam1234 » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:18 pm

You know, I was going to make a bunch of small points about why I do not feel those box score metrics properly represent the playoff gap with Kawhi, but I am not looking to get in a pedantic debate over how much each statistic means. So rather than do that, I think I will just point to the simplest explanation:

All these players are pretty close now.

Beyond that, I also think the “choking” effect is rather notable. It matters to me that Kawhi (hampered with a minor leg injury) elevated his play when backed against a wall, whereas Giannis, after having it so easy all year, really could not adapt offensively once Nurse altered his defensive schemes. I do think Giannis is close, and I might vote for him this time around... but I also think it is a bad look for players to disappoint like that.

And I am not saying it is just a matter of, “Oh, Giannis set such a high regular season standard that his diminishment looks worse than it actually is.” For me, it is mostly a lack of data. He established himself as a great overall regular season player. I also think he established himself as a great postseason player on defence. However, I am not sure he has proved he is quite yet a great postseason player on offence, even though next year I expect/hope he will be.

Beating up two meh teams and then being suppressed by an all-time great team does not give me much to work with, and it does not tell me whether he is more like Kawhi or more like Howard/Mourning. And while obviously many people default to looking at the regular season in that instance, I think the postseason is different enough that I do not like doing that. So I look at title winners who overcame good defences (Reed, Frazier, Pettit, Barry, Artis), or guys who lost admirably against good defences (Nash, 1992 Malone, 2003 Kidd), and Giannis just seems lacklustre. That does not mean he should be below them overall, because he does have his defence, but it is a disadvantage.

Keep in mind that I have also been essentially voting for championship level players across the board, so I have a very specific bias. And for what it is worth, I would have voted for him before Durant, Barkley, Westbrook, and Mikan (again, acknowledging my own bias there makes it almost impossible for me to assess him).

At this point, he is probably going to make my top three, but we will see. I am putting a lot on 70sFan’s analysis, haha, because it will be a frame of reference for both Artis and for pretty much every other big (including Giannis).

That came off as a ramble, but I think the point is trackable.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#18 » by cecilthesheep » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:44 pm

1. 1998 Karl Malone - okay, I've been convinced to switch to this, although not to '92. When I looked a little deeper I saw how the playoff run could be argued to be much better than '97 rather than just a little better.

2. 1997 Karl Malone - most of his standard and advanced stats for the regular season peak here. I think he was pretty much the same player from 96-98 or so, so this is extremely close. The playoff thing doesn't hurt it that badly for me.

3. 1996 Karl Malone - again, pretty much the same guy, different year.

I'll be voting for '11 Dwight next, unless convinced otherwise.
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#19 » by freethedevil » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:08 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:You know, I was going to make a bunch of small points about why I do not feel those box score metrics properly represent the playoff gap with Kawhi


Given that box based metrics are inherently biased towards offensive players, I'm not seeing how they'd diminish rather than exaggerate the playoff gap. :-?

I'm not going to get into the rest of it, because we're unlikely to break any new ground, but the stats t rex cited have a clear bias towards a player like kawhi or kd vs a player like embid or giannis
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Re: #31 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#20 » by freethedevil » Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:43 pm

trex_8063 wrote:I want to drum up some more support [or short of that, at least draw out some coherent and internally consistent arguments for why not] for '19 Giannis Antetokounmpo.

I note '19 Kawhi Leonard was voted in four places ago. Now, I'll acknowledge that I tend to consider the rs more heavily than most, but I'm gonna put a couple bullet points out there.....

By the box-based numbers, Giannis wasn't far behind Kawhi even in the playoffs:
PER - Kawhi 27.90, Giannis 26.45
WS/48 - Kawhi .2492, Giannis .2187
BPM - Kawhi 8.59, Giannis 8.96

Given the playoff performance wasn't a massive gap overall, how does one justify a big gap between '19 Kawhi and '19 Giannis, considering Giannis was MUCH better during the rs, while missing 12 fewer games to boot?

It's worth emphasizing all those stats are going to be biased towards offensive stars vs two way stars. Incidentally, +/- stats which aren't specifically designed to sacrifice accuracy for historical viability have giannis as the better playoff performer. Even, with the series as a whole, kawhi doesn't look so great stastically when we isolate for when they played each other or their team's performance with them on the floor.

So far, the best argument I've seen against all this is that, much like the cavs vs warriors in 2015, the last 4 games of the series show what was likely to happen if they play that series through multiple times, while the first part of the series would likely have led to the same adjustments that the next 4 games entailed. In those 4 games, kawhi looks better stastically than giannis.

So the question becomes
A. How replicable is what the raps did against the bucks among other championship stopping threats. Is that a freak situtation which we'll never see again? In that case, the first two games of the series where Giannis decimated the raptors defense with the volume of chances he created(despite the bucks shooting like ****) may be the more meaningful sample from that series and point towards a playoff player who is as good as his regular seaosn would suggest, an all time great. Or is Nurse's scheme something we can reasonably expect Giannis to encounter on the vast majority of championship runs, then the next 4 games warrant some weight against the 90 game sample saying Giannis should be much higher on this list.


B. Did that scheme expose Giannis's own weakness or a weakness in team construction that players like kawhi would also suffer from. And when looking at kawhi, what it really comes down to is this, are more versatile scorers immune to schemes which exploit a player's creation?nI don't think they are. We saw this with durant during these same playoffs. Vs a terrible clips defense he was mostly exceptional as a scorer, but in the game where curry missed time due to foul trouble, his volume plummeted and he had a massive amount of turnovers. Then vs the warriors in agme 2, during the stretch where curry was out getting hsi ifinger dislocated, the rockets nearly ccompleted a 15 point rally with kd commiting a flurry of turnovers. Scoring and creation are not disconnected, If you cannot create open shots, it will come to hurt your own scoring.

I think looking at the scheme "exposing" giannis makes sense when comapring him to great creators. But to players who are weaker creators, i see little reason to think that being a "triple threat" scorer would protect them from being similarly exposed.



All that said. at this point, we're don't have great, "reselient" playoff runs for giannis too contend with, so i think now the playoffs, and specifically that 4 game blemish on giannis's otherwise historically great season probably starts to mean less and less, and that leaves us with 2 games of blowing the league's best defense to bits, a demolition of a strong defense in the celtics, domination of a weak team, and a fantasic regular reason where strong creation was paired with historically effecient scoring and dpoy calibre defense. Giannis is a pretty obvious #1 vote for me at this point. His impact #'s aren't touched by anyone left and he's easily the most versatile player on the board. So


1. Giannis , 2019


If I have time I'll reconsider second and third place votes based on what I see from this thread.


For now I'll go with

2. 2016 Draymond Green, Amazing impact stats, and was able to be the clear, by a landslide, best player on a playoff team in curry's absence. All things considered, given curry's injuries, durant's inconsistency, and his own stastical dominance, I think it could be argued he was the second best player that postseasno.

3. 19 Nikola Jokic, best playoffs statistically of anyone left save for maybe giannis and draymond, pairs great scoring with historical creation and is a positive on d. Small sample size but we're getting low now.


I'm considering, dwight, Gilmore, Malone. Pau Gasol, Billups, Isiah Thomas, Jokic, and Harden for vote #3 or even 2

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