2019-20 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2221 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 11, 2020 7:37 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
Read on Twitter


I see KAT's name here, so I take we're having a rather loose definition for "guarding". :)

Meaningful data relating to guys like Simmons & Holiday though.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2222 » by HeadtopChunes » Tue May 12, 2020 10:05 pm

What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2223 » by RCM88x » Wed May 13, 2020 1:02 pm

HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day


He needs to get his act together a bit more, playing in Phoenix probably isn't a big help though. The suspension really tapered my expectations for him. But I'd still feel pretty confident about this if he wasn't in Phoenix basically, lol. Though they were looking a lot better this season, however still under performing relative to their talent IMO.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2224 » by ardee » Wed May 13, 2020 10:12 pm

Things are looking very good. If the superstars want it to, it'll come back.

Thoughts on how many tests they'd need to get it done, realistically?
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2225 » by HeadtopChunes » Wed May 13, 2020 10:31 pm

RCM88x wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day


He needs to get his act together a bit more, playing in Phoenix probably isn't a big help though. The suspension really tapered my expectations for him. But I'd still feel pretty confident about this if he wasn't in Phoenix basically, lol. Though they were looking a lot better this season, however still under performing relative to their talent IMO.


Yeah, i actually liked the growth from him defensively this season. I think hes trending in the right direction there and can end up pretty good.

Its just offensively hes not trending the direction i would want. For lack of a more apt way to say this, he needs to stop playing so soft. He’s got a Drob type body but he just wants to shoot midrange jumpers all day. I wish hed be more aggressive in the paint, his FTR for a guy with his physical tools id pretty disappointing imo.

I think hes definitely the most talented Suns player just needs to unlock more aggresion in the paint.

I will say comments about wanting to play PF are kinda concerning for that reason imo
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2226 » by eminence » Wed May 13, 2020 10:55 pm

The owners almost certainly want it, and I expect if the superstars want it too it'll happen, but I'm not sure I expect it to go well. I'd have to think more about a test number, but I imagine it'll take 10's of thousands of tests at a minimum.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2227 » by RCM88x » Thu May 14, 2020 4:38 am

HeadtopChunes wrote:
RCM88x wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day


He needs to get his act together a bit more, playing in Phoenix probably isn't a big help though. The suspension really tapered my expectations for him. But I'd still feel pretty confident about this if he wasn't in Phoenix basically, lol. Though they were looking a lot better this season, however still under performing relative to their talent IMO.


Yeah, i actually liked the growth from him defensively this season. I think hes trending in the right direction there and can end up pretty good.

Its just offensively hes not trending the direction i would want. For lack of a more apt way to say this, he needs to stop playing so soft. He’s got a Drob type body but he just wants to shoot midrange jumpers all day. I wish hed be more aggressive in the paint, his FTR for a guy with his physical tools id pretty disappointing imo.

I think hes definitely the most talented Suns player just needs to unlock more aggresion in the paint.

I will say comments about wanting to play PF are kinda concerning for that reason imo


The defensive growth is definitely re assuring, that's ultimately what will make or break his career.

As far as offense goes, yes I do agree there. Part of that might just be getting more experience under his belt and realizing what he can do when he's a bit more physical. Would like to see him develop a bit more of a post up game just to give his some variety and comfort a bit closer to the basket. He's still pretty raw, just not entirely convinced he's ever gonna grow these skills where he's at currently.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2228 » by bondom34 » Thu May 14, 2020 5:26 am

Maybe hot take: I think he's possibly the Sun's best player next year. And feel similar to eminence. I'm not sure how to feel on it but don't love they're coming back, its incredibly risky and the testing needs are huge. Plus when someone tests positive, sitting out 2 weeks in the playoffs is a big deal. Just doesn't feel right at all to me for non-basketball reasons.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2229 » by CKRT » Thu May 14, 2020 2:44 pm

eminence wrote:The owners almost certainly want it, and I expect if the superstars want it too it'll happen, but I'm not sure I expect it to go well. I'd have to think more about a test number, but I imagine it'll take 10's of thousands of tests at a minimum.


Yeah, I am very curious how they plan to handle this. What happens when we are in the playoffs and a team/both teams get it? Is it treated like an injury? Do they delay games even more?
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2230 » by ardee » Fri May 15, 2020 7:35 pm

CKRT wrote:
eminence wrote:The owners almost certainly want it, and I expect if the superstars want it too it'll happen, but I'm not sure I expect it to go well. I'd have to think more about a test number, but I imagine it'll take 10's of thousands of tests at a minimum.


Yeah, I am very curious how they plan to handle this. What happens when we are in the playoffs and a team/both teams get it? Is it treated like an injury? Do they delay games even more?


I'm sure they'll find a way to plan for but it's unlikely for it to happen if it's executed correctly in the bubble system.

They will have all the players, coaching staff and hotel employees onsite the whole time. Everyone will be tested and quarantined for 2 weeks when they get there, and then tested again.

No one leaves until their team is eliminated and no one comes in. Where is the infection going to come from?

They can probably test everyone everyday but if the initial quarantining is done correctly and there are no leaks in or out I think that'd probably be overcautious.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2231 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 15, 2020 8:44 pm

ardee wrote:Things are looking very good. If the superstars want it to, it'll come back.

Thoughts on how many tests they'd need to get it done, realistically?


I don't think the superstars want it, but I expect a compromise will get worked out contingent on the availability of the necessary materials. I really don't think there should be any reason for material shortages in July/August, but at this point I fully expect that there will be material shortages for that long and more. I frankly could see the NBA saying internally, "We don't want to be seen as taking supplies away from the common people, but if we wait until the government has its act together, that will take years. No point in waiting because the NBA will be bankrupt by then." (And I do think the NBA going bankrupt is a distinct possibility, same with all the other leagues. Basketball will not go away, but if you can't pay the salaries you're on the hook for because revenue is never the same again, players might just leave and form a new league.)

In terms of numbers:

As a baseline let's say:

1 test for each player in each games
15 series
7 games per series
24 players per game
is
2,520 tests.

I'm not entirely sure what a reasonable number is for team support staff but that will be xome ratio X for each team. If you need one support staff per player, than double the amount above (5,040). Whatever that ratio is, the NBA can figure that out easily.

The part that I really don't know how to estimate are the people attached to the structure they are living and playing in. How many people is that? How often do we need to test them?

If we said we thought we could get away with 1,000 folks and testing them once per week, and the thing ran for 5 weeks, that would mean another 5,000 tests.

So my thought is, at least 10,000 tests, but not necessarily 100,000 tests.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2232 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 15, 2020 8:49 pm

HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day


Let me ask a question to the group:

How do you rate his likely apex compared to KAT's?

And as I say this, I've never had KAT as a Top 10 player, so to my mind he needs to top that, and I don't get the sense he has comparable offensive talent, and also don't get the sense that he's going to be an amazing defensive player, but he doesn't feel like a Top 10 player to me, but I'm also not going to claim that I'm confident in my assessment of him.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2233 » by ardee » Fri May 15, 2020 9:47 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ardee wrote:Things are looking very good. If the superstars want it to, it'll come back.

Thoughts on how many tests they'd need to get it done, realistically?


I don't think the superstars want it, but I expect a compromise will get worked out contingent on the availability of the necessary materials. I really don't think there should be any reason for material shortages in July/August, but at this point I fully expect that there will be material shortages for that long and more. I frankly could see the NBA saying internally, "We don't want to be seen as taking supplies away from the common people, but if we wait until the government has its act together, that will take years. No point in waiting because the NBA will be bankrupt by then." (And I do think the NBA going bankrupt is a distinct possibility, same with all the other leagues. Basketball will not go away, but if you can't pay the salaries you're on the hook for because revenue is never the same again, players might just leave and form a new league.)

In terms of numbers:

As a baseline let's say:

1 test for each player in each games
15 series
7 games per series
24 players per game
is
2,520 tests.

I'm not entirely sure what a reasonable number is for team support staff but that will be xome ratio X for each team. If you need one support staff per player, than double the amount above (5,040). Whatever that ratio is, the NBA can figure that out easily.

The part that I really don't know how to estimate are the people attached to the structure they are living and playing in. How many people is that? How often do we need to test them?

If we said we thought we could get away with 1,000 folks and testing them once per week, and the thing ran for 5 weeks, that would mean another 5,000 tests.

So my thought is, at least 10,000 tests, but not necessarily 100,000 tests.


9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.

That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.

I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.

Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2234 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 15, 2020 10:10 pm

ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.

That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.

I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.

Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.


Good analysis. You're probably right about the 2 months.

Re: how often employees tested. I could see that being done daily as well, but this isn't something nurses are getting every day. We need the gamely for the players because they're really all going to be sharing some of the same enclosed spaces. If you're not careful it's going to hit them all hard together and even beyond the human cost of that, the whole tournament falls apart.

Hotel employees should be obeying social distancing norms and ought to be able to largely be protected both from each other and the players.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2235 » by ardee » Fri May 15, 2020 11:48 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.

That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.

I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.

Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.


Good analysis. You're probably right about the 2 months.

Re: how often employees tested. I could see that being done daily as well, but this isn't something nurses are getting every day. We need the gamely for the players because they're really all going to be sharing some of the same enclosed spaces. If you're not careful it's going to hit them all hard together and even beyond the human cost of that, the whole tournament falls apart.

Hotel employees should be obeying social distancing norms and ought to be able to largely be protected both from each other and the players.


That is true. I suppose outside of practices teams will be hanging out in common areas and their rooms. Food could just be dropped off in carts near the entrance of said room and then wheeled away (I have a friend quarantining in a hotel right now and that's how they're doing it). Idk about housekeeping but that's a minor detail and can be squared away.

Did occur to me it'll take more than 2 months actually. They will need the 2 week quarantine period at the start and also a 2-3 week training camp. Can't have them do training camp and then sit on their butts again for 14 days, would defeat the purpose. Tests will probably be 20k+ tbh. Assuming they get this rolling by mid-July (don't expect it anytime sooner), we'll probably see a mid-September Finals and the 2021 season start late December (if it does at all).

This will all be pretty expensive but it'll pale in comparison to the cost of a canceled season. Plus each Finals game will have Super Bowl or World Cup final ratings so from a business perspective that kind of exposure is good for the NBA.

Tbh, a Laker title and the Oxford vaccine being successfully rolled out in September (as the people working on it have hoped for), would be an incredible double whammy in an otherwise pretty crappy year.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2236 » by Doctor MJ » Sat May 16, 2020 12:58 am

ardee wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.

That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.

I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.

Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.


Good analysis. You're probably right about the 2 months.

Re: how often employees tested. I could see that being done daily as well, but this isn't something nurses are getting every day. We need the gamely for the players because they're really all going to be sharing some of the same enclosed spaces. If you're not careful it's going to hit them all hard together and even beyond the human cost of that, the whole tournament falls apart.

Hotel employees should be obeying social distancing norms and ought to be able to largely be protected both from each other and the players.


That is true. I suppose outside of practices teams will be hanging out in common areas and their rooms. Food could just be dropped off in carts near the entrance of said room and then wheeled away (I have a friend quarantining in a hotel right now and that's how they're doing it). Idk about housekeeping but that's a minor detail and can be squared away.

Did occur to me it'll take more than 2 months actually. They will need the 2 week quarantine period at the start and also a 2-3 week training camp. Can't have them do training camp and then sit on their butts again for 14 days, would defeat the purpose. Tests will probably be 20k+ tbh. Assuming they get this rolling by mid-July (don't expect it anytime sooner), we'll probably see a mid-September Finals and the 2021 season start late December (if it does at all).

This will all be pretty expensive but it'll pale in comparison to the cost of a canceled season. Plus each Finals game will have Super Bowl or World Cup final ratings so from a business perspective that kind of exposure is good for the NBA.

Tbh, a Laker title and the Oxford vaccine being successfully rolled out in September (as the people working on it have hoped for), would be an incredible double whammy in an otherwise pretty crappy year.


My impression is that they aren't going to try for a quarantine. Such a "bubble" would be the wisest course of events, but I think that's going to be part of the compromise. Players will do this because they recognize the financial realities of not doing it, but they'll do it on their terms to the extent realistic.

It's going to have to be at one location and everything will be made to make that location so nice the players don't want to leave, but there will not be security guards who stop them from leaving.

And I wonder if we'll get like a super-Dream Team effect wherein a bunch of these guys get to know each other and later decide they want to join forces. There was a time when guys didn't seem to relish playing with LeBron, but he could use something like this to make everyone want to be a Laker with him and AD.

And of course, Steph and KD won't be playing. LeBron could be the mayor of Ballerville.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2237 » by Bidofo » Sat May 16, 2020 1:18 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Let me ask a question to the group:

How do you rate his likely apex compared to KAT's?

And as I say this, I've never had KAT as a Top 10 player, so to my mind he needs to top that, and I don't get the sense he has comparable offensive talent, and also don't get the sense that he's going to be an amazing defensive player, but he doesn't feel like a Top 10 player to me, but I'm also not going to claim that I'm confident in my assessment of him.

At the very least, Ayton has shown he can improve on the defensive end. It's year 5 and KAT is as pitiful as ever, I believe when he missed games this season the T-Wolves defense improved by significantly.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2238 » by eminence » Sat May 16, 2020 1:20 am

I'm curious if any players just decide to not show up for the rest of the season. I know I'd be weighing it.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2239 » by Doctor MJ » Sat May 16, 2020 1:41 am

eminence wrote:I'm curious if any players just decide to not show up for the rest of the season. I know I'd be weighing it.


If the superstars hadn't gotten behind it then I don't think it would have happened.

Now that the superstars have officially gotten behind it, I would imagine there will be a lot of social pressure from them toward other players to perform and be all in. I'd expect you'd see almost all the guy on their best behavior.

But I could be wrong. Certainly there were eras in the past where guys were proud of being unprofessional and standing up to authority. To me that really started changing in the post-Iverson era.
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Re: 2019-20 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2240 » by eminence » Sat May 16, 2020 1:58 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:I'm curious if any players just decide to not show up for the rest of the season. I know I'd be weighing it.


If the superstars hadn't gotten behind it then I don't think it would have happened.

Now that the superstars have officially gotten behind it, I would imagine there will be a lot of social pressure from them toward other players to perform and be all in. I'd expect you'd see almost all the guy on their best behavior.

But I could be wrong. Certainly there were eras in the past where guys were proud of being unprofessional and standing up to authority. To me that really started changing in the post-Iverson era.


I certainly expect it to be a small number if any. Can't really think of any candidates off the top of my head. For some reason Ben Simmons comes to mind.

Though I think you and I may have different feelings on the word professional, lol.
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