Clyde Frazier wrote:
I see KAT's name here, so I take we're having a rather loose definition for "guarding".
Meaningful data relating to guys like Simmons & Holiday though.
Moderators: PaulieWal, Doctor MJ, Clyde Frazier, penbeast0, trex_8063
Clyde Frazier wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day
LookToShoot wrote:Melo is the only player that makes the Rockets watchable for the basketball purists. Otherwise it would just be three point shots and pick n roll.
RCM88x wrote:HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day
He needs to get his act together a bit more, playing in Phoenix probably isn't a big help though. The suspension really tapered my expectations for him. But I'd still feel pretty confident about this if he wasn't in Phoenix basically, lol. Though they were looking a lot better this season, however still under performing relative to their talent IMO.
HeadtopChunes wrote:RCM88x wrote:HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day
He needs to get his act together a bit more, playing in Phoenix probably isn't a big help though. The suspension really tapered my expectations for him. But I'd still feel pretty confident about this if he wasn't in Phoenix basically, lol. Though they were looking a lot better this season, however still under performing relative to their talent IMO.
Yeah, i actually liked the growth from him defensively this season. I think hes trending in the right direction there and can end up pretty good.
Its just offensively hes not trending the direction i would want. For lack of a more apt way to say this, he needs to stop playing so soft. He’s got a Drob type body but he just wants to shoot midrange jumpers all day. I wish hed be more aggressive in the paint, his FTR for a guy with his physical tools id pretty disappointing imo.
I think hes definitely the most talented Suns player just needs to unlock more aggresion in the paint.
I will say comments about wanting to play PF are kinda concerning for that reason imo
LookToShoot wrote:Melo is the only player that makes the Rockets watchable for the basketball purists. Otherwise it would just be three point shots and pick n roll.
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eminence wrote:The owners almost certainly want it, and I expect if the superstars want it too it'll happen, but I'm not sure I expect it to go well. I'd have to think more about a test number, but I imagine it'll take 10's of thousands of tests at a minimum.
lilojmayo wrote:Juice is not a chucker, like say James Harden
CKRT wrote:eminence wrote:The owners almost certainly want it, and I expect if the superstars want it too it'll happen, but I'm not sure I expect it to go well. I'd have to think more about a test number, but I imagine it'll take 10's of thousands of tests at a minimum.
Yeah, I am very curious how they plan to handle this. What happens when we are in the playoffs and a team/both teams get it? Is it treated like an injury? Do they delay games even more?
ardee wrote:Things are looking very good. If the superstars want it to, it'll come back.
Thoughts on how many tests they'd need to get it done, realistically?
HeadtopChunes wrote:What do you guys think of Deandre Ayton this year? Still think he can be a top 10 player one day
Doctor MJ wrote:ardee wrote:Things are looking very good. If the superstars want it to, it'll come back.
Thoughts on how many tests they'd need to get it done, realistically?
I don't think the superstars want it, but I expect a compromise will get worked out contingent on the availability of the necessary materials. I really don't think there should be any reason for material shortages in July/August, but at this point I fully expect that there will be material shortages for that long and more. I frankly could see the NBA saying internally, "We don't want to be seen as taking supplies away from the common people, but if we wait until the government has its act together, that will take years. No point in waiting because the NBA will be bankrupt by then." (And I do think the NBA going bankrupt is a distinct possibility, same with all the other leagues. Basketball will not go away, but if you can't pay the salaries you're on the hook for because revenue is never the same again, players might just leave and form a new league.)
In terms of numbers:
As a baseline let's say:
1 test for each player in each games
15 series
7 games per series
24 players per game
is
2,520 tests.
I'm not entirely sure what a reasonable number is for team support staff but that will be xome ratio X for each team. If you need one support staff per player, than double the amount above (5,040). Whatever that ratio is, the NBA can figure that out easily.
The part that I really don't know how to estimate are the people attached to the structure they are living and playing in. How many people is that? How often do we need to test them?
If we said we thought we could get away with 1,000 folks and testing them once per week, and the thing ran for 5 weeks, that would mean another 5,000 tests.
So my thought is, at least 10,000 tests, but not necessarily 100,000 tests.
ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.
That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.
I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.
Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.
Doctor MJ wrote:ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.
That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.
I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.
Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.
Good analysis. You're probably right about the 2 months.
Re: how often employees tested. I could see that being done daily as well, but this isn't something nurses are getting every day. We need the gamely for the players because they're really all going to be sharing some of the same enclosed spaces. If you're not careful it's going to hit them all hard together and even beyond the human cost of that, the whole tournament falls apart.
Hotel employees should be obeying social distancing norms and ought to be able to largely be protected both from each other and the players.
ardee wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:ardee wrote:9 superstars (basically the biggest names minus Harden, the call was organized by CP3 so go figure) just had a conference call and all said they wanted to come back.
That 5000 number sounds fairly reasonable. I've tried to estimate the people working there as well. Typically for a 5 star hotel you need 2 employees per guest but I figure perhaps they won't have that level of luxury.
I do doubt it'll last 5 weeks though. More like two months.
Anywhere from 10-25,000 seems like a good guess because I estimate the hotel employees will need to be tested more than once a week for sure.
Good analysis. You're probably right about the 2 months.
Re: how often employees tested. I could see that being done daily as well, but this isn't something nurses are getting every day. We need the gamely for the players because they're really all going to be sharing some of the same enclosed spaces. If you're not careful it's going to hit them all hard together and even beyond the human cost of that, the whole tournament falls apart.
Hotel employees should be obeying social distancing norms and ought to be able to largely be protected both from each other and the players.
That is true. I suppose outside of practices teams will be hanging out in common areas and their rooms. Food could just be dropped off in carts near the entrance of said room and then wheeled away (I have a friend quarantining in a hotel right now and that's how they're doing it). Idk about housekeeping but that's a minor detail and can be squared away.
Did occur to me it'll take more than 2 months actually. They will need the 2 week quarantine period at the start and also a 2-3 week training camp. Can't have them do training camp and then sit on their butts again for 14 days, would defeat the purpose. Tests will probably be 20k+ tbh. Assuming they get this rolling by mid-July (don't expect it anytime sooner), we'll probably see a mid-September Finals and the 2021 season start late December (if it does at all).
This will all be pretty expensive but it'll pale in comparison to the cost of a canceled season. Plus each Finals game will have Super Bowl or World Cup final ratings so from a business perspective that kind of exposure is good for the NBA.
Tbh, a Laker title and the Oxford vaccine being successfully rolled out in September (as the people working on it have hoped for), would be an incredible double whammy in an otherwise pretty crappy year.
Doctor MJ wrote:Let me ask a question to the group:
How do you rate his likely apex compared to KAT's?
And as I say this, I've never had KAT as a Top 10 player, so to my mind he needs to top that, and I don't get the sense he has comparable offensive talent, and also don't get the sense that he's going to be an amazing defensive player, but he doesn't feel like a Top 10 player to me, but I'm also not going to claim that I'm confident in my assessment of him.
eminence wrote:I'm curious if any players just decide to not show up for the rest of the season. I know I'd be weighing it.
Doctor MJ wrote:eminence wrote:I'm curious if any players just decide to not show up for the rest of the season. I know I'd be weighing it.
If the superstars hadn't gotten behind it then I don't think it would have happened.
Now that the superstars have officially gotten behind it, I would imagine there will be a lot of social pressure from them toward other players to perform and be all in. I'd expect you'd see almost all the guy on their best behavior.
But I could be wrong. Certainly there were eras in the past where guys were proud of being unprofessional and standing up to authority. To me that really started changing in the post-Iverson era.