2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1061 » by Blackmill » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:41 am

Doctor MJ wrote:The Heat played 2 serious contenders: The Bucks and the Lakers.
The Bucks had by far the best defense in the regular season, and were fine against their non-Heat opponent.
The Lakers had the most respected defense of the playoffs.

<snip>

Answers that relate to Davis or teams planning around that offensive strategy I get, but answers that just assume that this was him getting hot, I'm not sure I do despite the fact that I'll acknowledge that I've used that precise language during the playoffs run. Dude wasn't thriving based on taking crazy 3 pointers. He was getting to the inside and drawing tons of fouls while also making great reads to his teammates. Much of this looks pretty sustainable to me short of actual defensive counter strategies (or outlier opponent talent like Davis).


What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a significant advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. I understand that but I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he has a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range and in the future I might look back and think he should be even higher.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1062 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:57 am

Blackmill wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:The Heat played 2 serious contenders: The Bucks and the Lakers.
The Bucks had by far the best defense in the regular season, and were fine against their non-Heat opponent.
The Lakers had the most respected defense of the playoffs.

<snip>

Answers that relate to Davis or teams planning around that offensive strategy I get, but answers that just assume that this was him getting hot, I'm not sure I do despite the fact that I'll acknowledge that I've used that precise language during the playoffs run. Dude wasn't thriving based on taking crazy 3 pointers. He was getting to the inside and drawing tons of fouls while also making great reads to his teammates. Much of this looks pretty sustainable to me short of actual defensive counter strategies (or outlier opponent talent like Davis).


What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many of plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a huge advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. But I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he does have a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range.


Good thoughts. That puts some borders around the discussion.

What I find myself thinking though is that Miami in this series, despite the injuries and being lost early in the midst of those injuries, averaged a pretty high offensive rating - higher than Portland or Houston - with this Butler driven attack. If Butler with this supporting cast could do that to the Lakers - who would seem to about as good at stopping Butler as anyone - doesn't that seem like a fairly big deal to the extent that the small sample predicts the future?

Another thought as a question:

The Heat got two games off the Lakers. More than anyone else. Do we believe the Heat did better than any other Laker opponents or not? I could definitely see an argument that despite winning more games, the reality was that the Lakers let down their guard a bit after the first two easy victories. The Lakers felt like they were more consistently challenged against Denver.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1063 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:57 am

Blackmill wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:The Heat played 2 serious contenders: The Bucks and the Lakers.
The Bucks had by far the best defense in the regular season, and were fine against their non-Heat opponent.
The Lakers had the most respected defense of the playoffs.

<snip>

Answers that relate to Davis or teams planning around that offensive strategy I get, but answers that just assume that this was him getting hot, I'm not sure I do despite the fact that I'll acknowledge that I've used that precise language during the playoffs run. Dude wasn't thriving based on taking crazy 3 pointers. He was getting to the inside and drawing tons of fouls while also making great reads to his teammates. Much of this looks pretty sustainable to me short of actual defensive counter strategies (or outlier opponent talent like Davis).


What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many of plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a huge advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. But I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he does have a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range.


To be honest outside of g4, butler got most of his buckets on bron or ad, or off of off ball action. Matchup data agrees with this, and in terms of eye test i agree he was def more hesitent to attack them, esp g4 but i think g5 he was going at both of them and had decent success, g6 he was basically dead

With butler the problem is i feel drop coverage really hurts him, like theres a pretty clear way to defend him and its not as much pick your poison as other teams.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1064 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
Blackmill wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:The Heat played 2 serious contenders: The Bucks and the Lakers.
The Bucks had by far the best defense in the regular season, and were fine against their non-Heat opponent.
The Lakers had the most respected defense of the playoffs.

<snip>

Answers that relate to Davis or teams planning around that offensive strategy I get, but answers that just assume that this was him getting hot, I'm not sure I do despite the fact that I'll acknowledge that I've used that precise language during the playoffs run. Dude wasn't thriving based on taking crazy 3 pointers. He was getting to the inside and drawing tons of fouls while also making great reads to his teammates. Much of this looks pretty sustainable to me short of actual defensive counter strategies (or outlier opponent talent like Davis).


What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many of plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a huge advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. But I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he does have a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range.


Good thoughts. That puts some borders around the discussion.

What I find myself thinking though is that Miami in this series, despite the injuries and being lost early in the midst of those injuries, averaged a pretty high offensive rating - higher than Portland or Houston - with this Butler driven attack. If Butler with this supporting cast could do that to the Lakers - who would seem to about as good at stopping Butler as anyone - doesn't that seem like a fairly big deal to the extent that the small sample predicts the future?

Another thought as a question:

The Heat got two games off the Lakers. More than anyone else. Do we believe the Heat did better than any other Laker opponents or not? I could definitely see an argument that despite winning more games, the reality was that the Lakers let down their guard a bit after the first two easy victories. The Lakers felt like they were more consistently challenged against Denver.


I dont really know the nuances over this series, but at least vs houstan and vs portland, with portland we were able to shut down their pick and roll by trying to allow nurkic to beat us and he failed on short rolls because of his limitations as a roll finisher/platmaker when a defender is in place, aince he isnt draymond at finding the pass and hes not great if defense is in position

Vs houstan they just went question mark against our 2-3 zone and it was kind of suprising

We didnt have a hard counter gameplan cs the heat like we did vs the other two teams, and vs the nuggets we didnt have an easy counter period i feel

Vogels coaching was genuinly great these playoffs, i still have him below the tier one coaches like nurse and them, but I think hes a better defensive coach than anyone except nurse and spoelstra, and even those are questionable. As an offensive coach, the main thing is the system/set plays arent great but theyre fine, i dont like how some players are roled but i think in terms of offensive adjustments he did better than bud and stevens did

He might be a top 5 playoff coach for sure
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1065 » by WarriorGM » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
WarriorGM wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:What you said literally has nothing to do with my post. Not even a single word.


It does. Maybe you just need to think about it more.


Wait come closer salty warriors fan number #632 my steak is kind of bland


Careful it's not salt; you might choke from the heat.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1066 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:02 am

WarriorGM wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
WarriorGM wrote:
It does. Maybe you just need to think about it more.


Wait come closer salty warriors fan number #632 my steak is kind of bland


Careful it's not salt; you might choke from the heat.


Wait come closer salty warriors fan number #632 my steak is kind of bland
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1067 » by Blackmill » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:02 am

Doctor MJ wrote:What I find myself thinking though is that Miami in this series, despite the injuries and being lost early in the midst of those injuries, averaged a pretty high offensive rating - higher than Portland or Houston - with this Butler driven attack. If Butler with this supporting cast could do that to the Lakers - who would seem to about as good at stopping Butler as anyone - doesn't that seem like a fairly big deal to the extent that the small sample predicts the future?


If LA entered the finals with the knowledge they now have about what strategies and lineups work, I think the MIA offense would have dropped a few points.

In G6 the Lakers changed their strategy from earlier in the series. Aside from the obvious starting lineup changes, LA sent more help in the direction of Butler when he had a mismatch (they hard doubled a two or three times in the first half which I don't think happened in previous games), and the guards also showed a bit on the Butler PnR to help LeBron stay attached. All this led to slightly more open shooters which LA responded to with their scrambling defense that had caused Houston problems.

If one thinks Butler could repeat his G3 and G5 performances (assuming the opponent is LA) it seems necessary to me that one must also think LA could not repeat their G6 defense. That or Butler's G6 was a total fluke. Regarding if G6 was a fluke or not, Butler was probably tired and he missed some gimmes, but there were real reasons why it was harder for him to be effective (above paragraph). Also there was not a novelty factor here. LA beat Houston with their scrambling defense, and while not all the responsibilities were the same, Spo had to know this was possible.

On a team like the Heat, I wouldn't be surprised if Butler has more games like his G3 and G5, but I don't think he'll have those huge scoring games against teams which can follow the Lakers recipe in G6. But that's not many teams so the Heat should be in great shape.

The Heat got two games off the Lakers. More than anyone else. Do we believe the Heat did better than any other Laker opponents or not? I could definitely see an argument that despite winning more games, the reality was that the Lakers let down their guard a bit after the first two easy victories. The Lakers felt like they were more consistently challenged against Denver.


The Denver series was very close to going to G6. And the Miami series was very close to ending in G5. I don't have an answer but I think it's a good question.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1068 » by Blackmill » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:03 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Spoiler:
Blackmill wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:The Heat played 2 serious contenders: The Bucks and the Lakers.
The Bucks had by far the best defense in the regular season, and were fine against their non-Heat opponent.
The Lakers had the most respected defense of the playoffs.

<snip>

Answers that relate to Davis or teams planning around that offensive strategy I get, but answers that just assume that this was him getting hot, I'm not sure I do despite the fact that I'll acknowledge that I've used that precise language during the playoffs run. Dude wasn't thriving based on taking crazy 3 pointers. He was getting to the inside and drawing tons of fouls while also making great reads to his teammates. Much of this looks pretty sustainable to me short of actual defensive counter strategies (or outlier opponent talent like Davis).


What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many of plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a huge advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. But I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he does have a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range.


To be honest outside of g4, butler got most of his buckets on bron or ad, or off of off ball action. Matchup data agrees with this, and in terms of eye test i agree he was def more hesitent to attack them, esp g4 but i think g5 he was going at both of them and had decent success, g6 he was basically dead

With butler the problem is i feel drop coverage really hurts him, like theres a pretty clear way to defend him and its not as much pick your poison as other teams.


I literally watched every Butler FGA twice... and how NBA tracking assigns defender's to shot attempts is well known to be faulty.

Edit: Yeah, I rewatched again, matchup data is completely wrong if it says Butler was scoring most of his baskets against LeBron or Davis. No idea how they come up with this stuff. If you want to confirm for yourself, just go the NBA's website and look at Jimmy Butler's stats, you'll have the option to watch all his FGAs.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1069 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:06 am

I'm planning on watching game 5 of the finals and possibly game 6 because I missed them, so I'll try to keep track on who Butler scored on.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1070 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:30 am

Blackmill wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Spoiler:
Blackmill wrote:
What is very important to me is that nearly all of Jimmy's buckets were against players not named LeBron or Davis. (Also worth noting, there was not a hint of help on many of plays b/c of MIA's shooting). LA allowed the switch for most of the series, so this is not a surprise, and it wouldn't make sense to punish Butler for taking advantage of the situation. But it is important context because this was a huge advantage that won't always be present. To what degree does Butler's scoring volume and efficiency translate to a different environment where there is less shooting and he can't have whatever matchup he wants?

An argument I see is that AD is the only Laker who limited Butler, and since an athlete like AD is a rarity, most teams wouldn't have a good matchup for Butler anyways. But I'm unconvinced that AD was the only player who had success on Butler. For the most part Butler refused to directly attack LeBron and I think that says a lot about how MIA thought that matchup would go. In G6 when the Lakers were building their first half lead, a few Heat possessions were lost because MIA couldn't switch LeBron off Butler, and they ran down the clock trying to get LeBron switched until there were no good options. On one of these possessions, MIA switched AD onto Butler, which I think is an even tougher matchup but goes back to how MIA may have felt about LeBron as the defender. All that's to say I don't think a unicorn like AD is needed to defend Butler. I think a very good athlete is required but I feel there's more than one or two defenders in the league who can play Butler well.

I will add I'm not super high on his defense (by that I mean he's very good but imo below a strong first team all-defense player). I see you mention his five steals in G5 but some context is needed. One of those steals was pure generosity by the box scorers and another was Dwight throwing the ball to a side of the court that only had Heat players. Butler's steal were equivalent to AD blocking two shots that would have never gone in anyways, a pair of jumpers that had a chance, and one layup. That's 5 blocks on paper but the impact is more like 2. Good but not shifting my opinion much.

So I think Butler's mega-scoring nights are reproducible if you expect him to 1) have great shooters around him and 2) be able to play the mismatches. This is totally possible in the right matchups but we can't expect that to always be the case. In general settings I see Butler as a mid-20s scorer on good but not staggering efficiency. With his many other positive attributes (very proficient passer, great time and effort on rebounds, can play heavy minutes) I think he does have a good argument for being anywhere in the 9-6 range.


To be honest outside of g4, butler got most of his buckets on bron or ad, or off of off ball action. Matchup data agrees with this, and in terms of eye test i agree he was def more hesitent to attack them, esp g4 but i think g5 he was going at both of them and had decent success, g6 he was basically dead

With butler the problem is i feel drop coverage really hurts him, like theres a pretty clear way to defend him and its not as much pick your poison as other teams.


I literally watched every Butler FGA twice... and how NBA tracking assigns defender's to shot attempts is well known to be faulty.

Edit: Yeah, I rewatched again, matchup data is completely wrong if it says Butler was scoring most of his baskets against LeBron or Davis. Maybe they track who is the initial defender? Or who was the help defender? Obviously, though, that doesn't need to be the player who defends the attack.


Agree to an extent, that he wasnt isoing against ad ir bron 24/7. I do feel the only game where he was really justs scoring on mismatches was the 40 point one though, i think he scored alot of his buckets off of off ball/"hustle" action though. I do think a good alount of his buckets in g5 was def on AD though tbf, and i would say while kcp is certainly a mismatch and green to a smaller extent, kuz is a legitamately good wing defender now

I agree he has weaknesses and i dont have him in my top 5 personally atm but still
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1071 » by Blackmill » Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:14 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:Agree to an extent, that he wasnt isoing against ad ir bron 24/7. I do feel the only game where he was really justs scoring on mismatches was the 40 point one though, i think he scored alot of his buckets off of off ball/"hustle" action though. I do think a good alount of his buckets in g5 was def on AD though tbf, and i would say while kcp is certainly a mismatch and green to a smaller extent, kuz is a legitamately good wing defender now

I agree he has weaknesses and i dont have him in my top 5 personally atm but still


Yeah most of LA's roster is very competent defensively. Guys like KCP and Green are just mismatches because Butler is strong, smart and skilled. My point has been that if 40% of these switches are taken away, and if a little more help is given when Butler has the mismatch, then Butler's 35+ point games on over 70% TS are likely "limited" to 28-32 point on 60-65% TS. Those are still excellent games with Butler's passing and defense.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1072 » by DatAsh » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:58 pm

After seeing what happened in the playoffs, it's clear to me that Lebron and AD are the two best players in the league. Crazy that they play on the same team :o. AD's playoff defense, especially in the finals, reminded me of Hakeem. They way he locked down perimeter stars while still maintaining a tough at rim presence was a thing of beauty, like a weird combination of Garnett and Hakeem. Lebron showed once again that he's still the best player in the league, and he seems to do this every year in the playoffs.

Giannis was clearly the best RS player in my eyes, but his offense seems less resilient to coaches being able to adjust to it over a 7 game series. Giannis has the same problem that Lebron had early in his career, but worse, in that he only has 1 real way to play offensively. It's also clear to me that Lebron(and AD to a lesser degree) don't give a crap about RS. They were both coasting in the RS, so it's hard for me to use that to assess their actual level of play. Playoff Lebron and AD are the real 100% versions of each.

1 and 2 is easy for me, and I think I want Jokic is probably a lock for 3 for me. 3 is a little bit less clear than 1 and 2, for me, but I'm still pretty set on Jokic.

4+ is harder for me.

I'll say

1. Lebron
2. AD
3. Jokic
4-7. Giannis/Butler/Harden/Kawhi (can't decide)

for now.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1073 » by DatAsh » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:13 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:The way Lebron turns it up in the playoffs has me flabbergasted. He looks like a completely different player from the RS. I mean, physiologically, is it possible to be 35 and play like you're 25? He looks every bit the physical force that he was in his 20s.


Making the finals 10 times has led him to not care at all about the RS. At this point in his career, I think the RS is just about making the playoffs and not getting injured. I think he's very confident of his ability to make it to the finals if he can just make the playoffs, regardless of seeding.

He definitely doesn't look like the same physical force he was in his 20s, though. I have to disagree with that last bit. His skills have improved tremendously to compensate for that physical decline, though.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1074 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:43 pm

Blackmill wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:What I find myself thinking though is that Miami in this series, despite the injuries and being lost early in the midst of those injuries, averaged a pretty high offensive rating - higher than Portland or Houston - with this Butler driven attack. If Butler with this supporting cast could do that to the Lakers - who would seem to about as good at stopping Butler as anyone - doesn't that seem like a fairly big deal to the extent that the small sample predicts the future?


If LA entered the finals with the knowledge they now have about what strategies and lineups work, I think the MIA offense would have dropped a few points.

In G6 the Lakers changed their strategy from earlier in the series. Aside from the obvious starting lineup changes, LA sent more help in the direction of Butler when he had a mismatch (they hard doubled a two or three times in the first half which I don't think happened in previous games), and the guards also showed a bit on the Butler PnR to help LeBron stay attached. All this led to slightly more open shooters which LA responded to with their scrambling defense that had caused Houston problems.

If one thinks Butler could repeat his G3 and G5 performances (assuming the opponent is LA) it seems necessary to me that one must also think LA could not repeat their G6 defense. That or Butler's G6 was a total fluke. Regarding if G6 was a fluke or not, Butler was probably tired and he missed some gimmes, but there were real reasons why it was harder for him to be effective (above paragraph). Also there was not a novelty factor here. LA beat Houston with their scrambling defense, and while not all the responsibilities were the same, Spo had to know this was possible.

On a team like the Heat, I wouldn't be surprised if Butler has more games like his G3 and G5, but I don't think he'll have those huge scoring games against teams which can follow the Lakers recipe in G6. But that's not many teams so the Heat should be in great shape.

The Heat got two games off the Lakers. More than anyone else. Do we believe the Heat did better than any other Laker opponents or not? I could definitely see an argument that despite winning more games, the reality was that the Lakers let down their guard a bit after the first two easy victories. The Lakers felt like they were more consistently challenged against Denver.


The Denver series was very close to going to G6. And the Miami series was very close to ending in G5. I don't have an answer but I think it's a good question.


Good post and I'm glad you acknowledge that Butler was clearly tired in Game 6.

Of course as I say that, I was someone talking about how Butler looked fresher in Game 5 than LeBron and was thinking about Butler's age advantage. I was not expecting Butler to be more gassed than LeBron in Game 6.

I'm inclined to agree about knowing the right strategy from Game 1. I think there's truth in the idea that the Lakers basically knew how they were going to attack the Nuggets from Game 1 (with relatively minor adjustments after that) whereas with the Heat they had to completely shift gears midway through the series.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1075 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:45 pm

Hey y'all, did you see the Voting thread I made?

There's a message in there to PM me if you want to vote. Please read if you're unsure if you qualify. Either way PM me if you want to vote.
Hey: With what's going on in the world, my fuse is shorter than it used to be, and it's leading my lose my cool and then go on self-imposed breaks from things (such as RealGM). Please try to keep it civil, and I'll be looking to do the same.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1076 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:50 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y'all, did you see the Voting thread I made?

There's a message in there to PM me if you want to vote. Please read if you're unsure if you qualify. Either way PM me if you want to vote.

I saw it but thought it was an old bump. It says the 2009-2010 season? Is this a retro vote or was that just a typo?
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1077 » by Heej » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:52 pm

DatAsh wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:The way Lebron turns it up in the playoffs has me flabbergasted. He looks like a completely different player from the RS. I mean, physiologically, is it possible to be 35 and play like you're 25? He looks every bit the physical force that he was in his 20s.


Making the finals 10 times has led him to not care at all about the RS. At this point in his career, I think the RS is just about making the playoffs and not getting injured. I think he's very confident of his ability to make it to the finals if he can just make the playoffs, regardless of seeding.

He definitely doesn't look like the same physical force he was in his 20s, though. I have to disagree with that last bit. His skills have improved tremendously to compensate for that physical decline, though.

He's saying LeBron moves like a guy in his 20s not LeBron in his 20s. Which I suppose is true, tho LeBron is a bit more plodding now. (Edit: misread that, LeBrons not the same now cmon peregrine)

And honestly man, I think it's just all mental. If any of you guys have been injured and foolishly continued playing ball (aka everyone that's ever played basketball) you know you have a mental limiter on yourself that you never truly lift unless the stakes reeeeally called for it. Same way I think LeBron has mastered the regular season limiter. He might lift the restrictions for a play here or there, but I doubt it.

Maybe I'm just projecting myself onto him, but honestly half the time it seems like Lebron practices playing the regular season at 85%-90% speed and refining his technique to being able to outplay guys with that level of speed so that he can be super effective when he goes 100%. Almost like one of those anime characters that takes off their weighted clothing in the middle of a fight and turns out to be way stronger than they were letting on.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1078 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:11 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Hey y'all, did you see the Voting thread I made?

There's a message in there to PM me if you want to vote. Please read if you're unsure if you qualify. Either way PM me if you want to vote.

I saw it but thought it was an old bump. It says the 2009-2010 season? Is this a retro vote or was that just a typo?


D'oh! Typo. Thanks HBK!
Hey: With what's going on in the world, my fuse is shorter than it used to be, and it's leading my lose my cool and then go on self-imposed breaks from things (such as RealGM). Please try to keep it civil, and I'll be looking to do the same.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1079 » by DatAsh » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:16 pm

Baski wrote:
Joey Wheeler wrote:
Baski wrote:I honestly have no idea how it'll shake out, but I'll damn sure be looking out for where the Warriors finish.
A lot of myths have been dying horrible deaths in recent years' playoffs

Playoff Kyrie the guaranteed baller
Playoff Kawhi the guaranteed title
Lebron the big man killer
The wild wild West

Next season we'll see how "Gravity just started in 2016 and negates bad games lolz" holds up


Hmm don't think any of that has died.

"Playoff Kyrie the guaranteed baller" - was this ever a thing? He had played 52 playoff matches prior to last season, none as the leader/best player of the team. Were there people claiming he was infallible or something in the playoffs?

It sure was a thing until the 2019 playoffs. People legit thought that Kyrie was infallible in the playoffs. That was pretty much the only thing that came up when discussing him vs other star PGs.
Having watched the Cavs offense be generally indifferent to his presence and actually hurt by it in 2017 pre-finals, it was infuriating for me to see people put down clearly superior players like Lillard and Lowry simply because they didn't play with Lebron. Kyrie also got an automatic pass for his team-killing effect on the Celtics because "he'll show up in the POs", well until he didn't in his first ever POs without Lebron.
"Playoff Kawhi the guaranteed title" - Again, was this ever a thing? Even before this year, Kawhi lost in the playoffs more than he won.

Also was a thing until this recent flameout. The guy got the ultimate pass for the most blatantly scummy behaviour plus gross disrespect to the RS with load management solely based on people's belief that he leads you straight to a title and thus all of that is worth it. Aside from tons of posters saying exactly that, how else do you explain the relatively lukewarm reaction to him forcing the Clippers to mortgage their entire future for Paul George and giving members of his circle FO jobs? It gets even more ridiculous every time I say it. Zero picks for 6 years. And this idiotic decision was only bashed AFTER the Clippers flamed out. Ridiculous.

As to your last statement, I'm just as shocked as you by the bizarre forum-wide amnesia regarding Kawhi's pre-2017 playoffs performances.
"Lebron the big man killer" - this is not true, but Davis dominating has nothing to do with that. The reality is Lebron is a difficult guy to fit with other guys who need the ball in their hands without getting diminishing returns, this is absolutely not disproven by Davis thriving

Yes it is actually. It tells me that big men who can't defend nor bang inside can't play with anyone, it's not a Lebron thing. Lebron had no issue producing elite offense with Bosh and Love next to him. Where his teams always failed was on the defensive end, where Love and Bosh (bless his heart he tried so hard early on) were huge weaknesses. That speaks more to his GM abilities than his effect on other players. What was the last championship team that had a big man with Love's weaknesses playing major minutes? It's always been my opinion that the ideal big man next to Lebron is a defensive specialist. DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert would've been massively better for them than Kevin Love for example.
"The wild wild West" - Uh? The West is clearly the stronger conference. Lebron and AD romping their way through it doesn't mean it's weak, they'd do that against any conference...

The dumb argument was that whether it's the East or West made any difference to Lebron's dominance. Yes they'd do that against any conference because talent is talent.


Bosh was a great defender. Arguably near as impactful as Lebron. Love was bad, though.
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Re: 2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#1080 » by C0bR » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:34 pm

DatAsh wrote:
Baski wrote:
Joey Wheeler wrote:
Hmm don't think any of that has died.

"Playoff Kyrie the guaranteed baller" - was this ever a thing? He had played 52 playoff matches prior to last season, none as the leader/best player of the team. Were there people claiming he was infallible or something in the playoffs?

It sure was a thing until the 2019 playoffs. People legit thought that Kyrie was infallible in the playoffs. That was pretty much the only thing that came up when discussing him vs other star PGs.
Having watched the Cavs offense be generally indifferent to his presence and actually hurt by it in 2017 pre-finals, it was infuriating for me to see people put down clearly superior players like Lillard and Lowry simply because they didn't play with Lebron. Kyrie also got an automatic pass for his team-killing effect on the Celtics because "he'll show up in the POs", well until he didn't in his first ever POs without Lebron.
"Playoff Kawhi the guaranteed title" - Again, was this ever a thing? Even before this year, Kawhi lost in the playoffs more than he won.

Also was a thing until this recent flameout. The guy got the ultimate pass for the most blatantly scummy behaviour plus gross disrespect to the RS with load management solely based on people's belief that he leads you straight to a title and thus all of that is worth it. Aside from tons of posters saying exactly that, how else do you explain the relatively lukewarm reaction to him forcing the Clippers to mortgage their entire future for Paul George and giving members of his circle FO jobs? It gets even more ridiculous every time I say it. Zero picks for 6 years. And this idiotic decision was only bashed AFTER the Clippers flamed out. Ridiculous.

As to your last statement, I'm just as shocked as you by the bizarre forum-wide amnesia regarding Kawhi's pre-2017 playoffs performances.
"Lebron the big man killer" - this is not true, but Davis dominating has nothing to do with that. The reality is Lebron is a difficult guy to fit with other guys who need the ball in their hands without getting diminishing returns, this is absolutely not disproven by Davis thriving

Yes it is actually. It tells me that big men who can't defend nor bang inside can't play with anyone, it's not a Lebron thing. Lebron had no issue producing elite offense with Bosh and Love next to him. Where his teams always failed was on the defensive end, where Love and Bosh (bless his heart he tried so hard early on) were huge weaknesses. That speaks more to his GM abilities than his effect on other players. What was the last championship team that had a big man with Love's weaknesses playing major minutes? It's always been my opinion that the ideal big man next to Lebron is a defensive specialist. DeAndre Jordan or Rudy Gobert would've been massively better for them than Kevin Love for example.
"The wild wild West" - Uh? The West is clearly the stronger conference. Lebron and AD romping their way through it doesn't mean it's weak, they'd do that against any conference...

The dumb argument was that whether it's the East or West made any difference to Lebron's dominance. Yes they'd do that against any conference because talent is talent.


Bosh was a great defender. Arguably near as impactful as Lebron. Love was bad, though.

This is just revisionist history that has become more and more common for some reason. Bosh was a mediocre rim protector, terrible post defender and the main culprit in the Heat being one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. He was good in the trapping scheme but no sane coach would run that scheme if they had a choice to pick something more conservative. Spo didn't have that choice because when Bosh just played drop coverage it was an automatic bucket for whoever was coming off the screen.

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