2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Joey Wheeler]

So I understand the massive sample size of the RS compared to the PS, and that Giannis certainly had one of the most dominant RS of all time.

But in a situation like this, where he's CLEARLY not the best player in the league because he simply can't maintain anywhere close to the same effectiveness in the PS (second year in a row now), and his team struggles massively as a result, how do we reconcile that?

Like, based on what I'm seeing, is there an argument that Giannis shouldn't be in top 5, since I can see myself preferring 5 other players over Giannis for a playoff run? Because isn't the most important thing when evaluating players how good they are when it comes to a playoff run, and how effective they are when it comes to facing playoff defenses? Isn't that what makes the biggest difference in terms of raising championship odds for a team?

There's no argument for Giannis to make top 5. After seeing how this series has unfolded, it'd be a massive struggle to coherently argue for Giannis over Jimmy Butler, let alone top 5. And this is no fluke due to low sample size, all of Giannis's flaws being exposed have long been known, this series is no outlier...

[Senior]

So I understand the massive sample size of the RS compared to the PS, and that Giannis certainly had one of the most dominant RS of all time.

But in a situation like this, where he's CLEARLY not the best player in the league because he simply can't maintain anywhere close to the same effectiveness in the PS (second year in a row now), and his team struggles massively as a result, how do we reconcile that?

Like, based on what I'm seeing, is there an argument that Giannis shouldn't be in top 5, since I can see myself preferring 5 other players over Giannis for a playoff run? Because isn't the most important thing when evaluating players how good they are when it comes to a playoff run, and how effective they are when it comes to facing playoff defenses? Isn't that what makes the biggest difference in terms of raising championship odds for a team?

well if he goes out in a sweep or 5, it'll kinda feel like 94-95 david robinson seasons (in terms of amazing RS -> playoff implosions)

lot of talk about how the bucks roster "wasn't that good" and there'll probably be a lot of discussion about how giannis papered over a lot of these holes, but there are clear and damning limitations to both d-rob and now giannis' games

[Dutchball97]

Player of the year is about both regular season and play-offs. With a second round exit you're not going to be #1 but he's 100% top 5.

[Doctor MJ]

Hey y'all,

So I was watching the Bucks fall apart last night and I thought "I've got to post on RealGM", so here I am.

Scattered thoughts relating to POY at this moment:

1. Giannis' candidacy is obviously sinking like a stone. I will say that there's absolutely nothing about his team (maybe) getting swept here that makes me say "He can't be in the Top 5" and in fact ranking him lower feels like an overreaction to me. That said, practically speaking, if that is indeed what happens, I may find it impossibly not to put Butler ahead of him, and Butler certainly hasn't clinched Top 5 status for me.

2. I can't tell you how impressive I think it is that Coach Bud now seems utterly outclassed by an increasing number of new-school coaches. I think it's important to remember that these areas where Bud is so deficient are things he deficient on because opposing coaches didn't exploit weaknesses so aggressively in the past. Bud is a great coach by all classic standards. And yet, when we look at him compared to the other guys still coaching in the East (Spo, Stevens, Nurse), the gap is becoming a canyon.

3. If the Heat pull this off, even if they lose in the next round, this is serious validation for Jimmy Butler and a serious slap in the face to Minny and Philly (and the Bulls too to a degree). Yup, he's an a-hole who's often hard to work with because he gets frustrated easily, but he gets frustrated with the right things. If he's not happy, it means there's a problem with your team you shouldn't be happy with either.

4. Really, really impressed with the Celtics in particular as a team overall. Still wouldn't pick them to win the title, but this core has grown up this year and man, Kyrie looks all the more a fool.

5. Kawhi continues to seem the most consistently unstoppable player in the league. If he carries that on through to another Finals MVP, it's going to have a huge impact reshaping not simply the current pecking order in the league, but the all-time legacies of the other players of this generation.

6. It was a while ago, but that whole thing with Paul George & Damian Lillard just continues to show what a fool George is. He's on a great team with an unassailable alpha serving as the foundation, so he may well get his ring and bragging rights, but he continues to be a guy who doesn't look before he leaps, and continues to try to play the tough guy despite having awfully thin skin. Dame on the other hand continues to solidify himself as a (poor man's) Jordan-like icon of bad ass mindset. I don't really expect Lillard to ever lead a contender in his career, but I love that he exists.

7. Lakers down 0-1 to Rockets. Good for the Rockets, but the question is always whether their gimmickry can hold up over a 7 game series in a matchup against a team with top tier superstars. Still betting the Lakers will figure it out.

8. As a Jokic fan I was pleasantly surprised when last year he didn't just show up to the playoffs, but looked even more dominant. He's always seemed like a guy likely to get exposed against a serious contender. I'm not feeling that optimistic against the Clippers.

9. Finally, even though it was a losing effort, the way Luka and the Mavs played against the Clippers makes them look to me like legit contenders if next year they kick their regular season performance up another tier. On the other hand, still excited about Zion, but NO has a lot to figure out.

[Doctor MJ]

But I always give my vote to who I feel is the 'best' not someone who has the best year - because I'm not really sure what that means.

I'll put it like this:

Steph Curry will not be in my Top 5 this year despite the fact that I would still consider him one of the 5 best players in the world, and I bet you can guess why.

What I've said from the beginning is that you've got to judge based on what the player actually did rather than what he might have done. It's up to you to decide how impressive what he actually accomplished for his team was this year, but you have to ground your assessment based on what we saw this year.

Make sense? More questions?

[Doctor MJ]

So I understand the massive sample size of the RS compared to the PS, and that Giannis certainly had one of the most dominant RS of all time.

But in a situation like this, where he's CLEARLY not the best player in the league because he simply can't maintain anywhere close to the same effectiveness in the PS (second year in a row now), and his team struggles massively as a result, how do we reconcile that?

Like, based on what I'm seeing, is there an argument that Giannis shouldn't be in top 5, since I can see myself preferring 5 other players over Giannis for a playoff run? Because isn't the most important thing when evaluating players how good they are when it comes to a playoff run, and how effective they are when it comes to facing playoff defenses? Isn't that what makes the biggest difference in terms of raising championship odds for a team?

Great questions to chew on.

I think for me the key thing is to focus on what we think is actually happening first, and only then ask what that says for our ranking.

What I see for Giannis' impact is that essentially the Bucks under Kidd found a cheat code letting Giannis lead the break, and then Bud came in and designed a system to spam that cheat code. So long as no one can stop the cheat code, Giannis is the most valuable player in the game...but at this point it seems clear that solid teams with good coaching can do it, and the results are devastating.

Also, using the excuse "Giannis" got injured for that collapse yesterday leads to the same ugly truth: If the Giannis-ball system only works with Giannis being 100%, that goes to illustrate how fragile the Bucks' dominance actually is.

I'm not someone who overly lionizing guys who can volume score from midrange, but what's clearly the case with Kawhi is that in tough situations, his ability to do his thing doesn't drop off all that dramatically. Put him up against a good defense while he's dealing with being banged up and he'll be less effective that fully healthy against a soft defense, but he'll still be pretty effective. Hence the Kawhi "Plan A" seems to be something that really diminishes the need for Plan B's and C's.

Giannis needs to find ways to be automatic in all circumstances the way guys like Kawhi & veteran LeBron are. He's got plenty of time to learn still, but I think he's going to need good, aggressive mentoring in order to get there. He's smart and hard working, but he doesn't seem to intuit his way to learn counters the way some guys do.

I say all this though to emphasize that we have to not pretend that we've learned Giannis is really an 8 instead of a 10. The stuff Giannis is great at, he's a clear cut 10. The issue is that right now smart defenses can keep him from accessing those 10-level tools. If he figures it out, potential GOAT peak. If he doesn't, yikes, literally may never come closer to winning a title than he did last year now that the book is out on him.

Back to the ranking: I'm not going to drop Giannis just to drop him, but I will say that if I feel the same way if and when the Heat close out the series, it will be hard not to have Jimmy Butler ahead of him, and and the list of other guys I might end up ahead of Butler on the list is certainly more than just LeBron and Kawhi.

[therealbig3]

Spoelstra isn't really a new age coach though lol. He's been doing it before Bud, and I was actually curious and took a look back, and he's been coaching the Heat since 09...that makes this his 12th year as head coach.

In a league where coaches get replaced like candy, he's got to be the longest tenured coach other than Pop right? That's pretty impressive to me.

[Doctor MJ]

Spoelstra isn't really a new age coach though lol. He's been doing it before Bud, and I was actually curious and took a look back, and he's been coaching the Heat since 09...that makes this his 12th year as head coach.

In a league where coaches get replaced like candy, he's got to be the longest tenured coach other than Pop right? That's pretty impressive to me.

And yet, I stand by what I said.

Spoelstra is among a vanguard of coaches who are taking coaching to a new level both with their own innovation, and aggressively looking to learn from other innovative minds, while Bud really feels like he's still in the last generation.

[Basileus777]

Joker is dominating tonight. Clips had to low blow him to slow him down.

[Basileus777]

Is this where we overreact and call Kawhi washed?

[therealbig3]

Is this where we overreact and call Kawhi washed?

But for all the flack Denver’s gotten for their defense, they forced him into easily his worst game of the playoffs, probably one of his worst ever since he emerged as a star.

Obviously when he’s hot with his jumper, there’s nothing to really do, but Grant and Harris did an excellent job, and they doubled him at exactly the right times.

[GSP]

Jerami Grant was such a massive signing for Denver. Hes perfect next to Nikola and for their young core going forward speically as Millsap nears the end

[Dutchball97]

Jokic is making a strong case to be top 5. He was a top 10 player in the regular season, did about as well as you can expect against Gobert and might be looking at a huge series while he's guarded by Zubac and Trez.

[ardee]

Jokic is making a strong case to be top 5. He was a top 10 player in the regular season, did about as well as you can expect against Gobert and might be looking at a huge series while he's guarded by Zubac and Trez.

Who are you replacing with him? Harden?

[Dutchball97]

Jokic is making a strong case to be top 5. He was a top 10 player in the regular season, did about as well as you can expect against Gobert and might be looking at a huge series while he's guarded by Zubac and Trez.

Who are you replacing with him? Harden?

It's conditional on how the rest of the play-offs go but I might take Jokic over Luka. I don't think Luka was clearly better than Jokic in the regular season and even though he did really well in the play-offs, it was still a first round exit.

Harden was the second best player behind Giannis in the regular season in my opinion and he has performed well in the play-offs too, I don't see a lot of scenarios where he doesn't end up being at least top 5.

[HeartBreakKid]

But I always give my vote to who I feel is the 'best' not someone who has the best year - because I'm not really sure what that means.

I'll put it like this:

Steph Curry will not be in my Top 5 this year despite the fact that I would still consider him one of the 5 best players in the world, and I bet you can guess why.

What I've said from the beginning is that you've got to judge based on what the player actually did rather than what he might have done. It's up to you to decide how impressive what he actually accomplished for his team was this year, but you have to ground your assessment based on what we saw this year.

Make sense? More questions?

Yes, you are not using relevant information to determine that Steph Curry is top 5. He has barely played this year, and hasn't actually played well. So there isn't enough evidence to support the claim that Steph Curry is top 5 in 2020. Steph Curry legitimately isn't one of the top 5 basketball players in the world now.

You seem to be going off that I am voting off of hypothetical - I am not. When I say LBJ is the best player, it is not on a hypothetical or based on what he's done in the past (though it does influence it I am sure, but more so in subtle ways than the core premise of his ranking), it's based on what he is doing/done this year. But if he loses to say, Kawhi Leonard, despite him being a bit better, he will almost certainly place lower than Kawhi on POY.

[WarriorGM]

But I always give my vote to who I feel is the 'best' not someone who has the best year - because I'm not really sure what that means.

I'll put it like this:

Steph Curry will not be in my Top 5 this year despite the fact that I would still consider him one of the 5 best players in the world, and I bet you can guess why.

What I've said from the beginning is that you've got to judge based on what the player actually did rather than what he might have done. It's up to you to decide how impressive what he actually accomplished for his team was this year, but you have to ground your assessment based on what we saw this year.

Make sense? More questions?

Yes, you are not using relevant information to determine that Steph Curry is top 5. He has barely played this year, and hasn't actually played well. So there isn't enough evidence to support the claim that Steph Curry is top 5 in 2020. Steph Curry legitimately isn't one of the top 5 basketball players in the world now.

You seem to be going off that I am voting off of hypothetical - I am not. When I say LBJ is the best player, it is not on a hypothetical or based on what he's done in the past (though it does influence it I am sure, but more so in subtle ways than the core premise of his ranking), it's based on what he is doing/done this year. But if he loses to say, Kawhi Leonard, despite him being a bit better, he will almost certainly place lower than Kawhi on POY.

Yet here we are still discussing Curry. Curry has been the best player of the past 5 years. One year where he begins saddled with rookies and G-Leaguers and then is out due to injury and a pandemic doesn't provide enough reason to warrant thinking he won't come back strong next season. When he comes back and underperforms expectations then you'll be more believable.

[Doctor MJ]

But I always give my vote to who I feel is the 'best' not someone who has the best year - because I'm not really sure what that means.

I'll put it like this:

Steph Curry will not be in my Top 5 this year despite the fact that I would still consider him one of the 5 best players in the world, and I bet you can guess why.

What I've said from the beginning is that you've got to judge based on what the player actually did rather than what he might have done. It's up to you to decide how impressive what he actually accomplished for his team was this year, but you have to ground your assessment based on what we saw this year.

Make sense? More questions?

Yes, you are not using relevant information to determine that Steph Curry is top 5. He has barely played this year, and hasn't actually played well. So there isn't enough evidence to support the claim that Steph Curry is top 5 in 2020. Steph Curry legitimately isn't one of the top 5 basketball players in the world now.

You seem to be going off that I am voting off of hypothetical - I am not. When I say LBJ is the best player, it is not on a hypothetical or based on what he's done in the past (though it does influence it I am sure, but more so in subtle ways than the core premise of his ranking), it's based on what he is doing/done this year. But if he loses to say, Kawhi Leonard, despite him being a bit better, he will almost certainly place lower than Kawhi on POY.

To be clear, I'm just giving my general spiel with an updated context when I mention Curry. It's basically my stock answer but instead of talking about, say, Kobe in '04-05 or Wilt in '68-69, I'm talking about Curry. (Granted Curry's injury make the situations a bit different, which means maybe Curry isn't the best example, but it's what sprang to mind.)

So yeah, just want to be clear that I wasn't making a statement about you, just giving my standard answer which is the best one I can think of for a question that you are surely not alone in having.

Re: "Better than Kawhi but Kawhi's team wins scenario". Yup, winning bias is a thing. For the record I voted Giannis #1 last year ahead of Kawhi so I feel ya.

One note: I circle back and update my list from time to time. Won't be surprised at all if the Heat series makes me go back and change my current assessment of the '18-19 POY. I don't regret the vote though. My best assessment at the time I had to commit to a vote was that Giannis was still the most deserving POY despite being outplayed by Kawhi in their series.

[Statlanta]

Is this where we overreact and call Kawhi washed?

This is where we remind ourselves that Kawhi didn't face a top player at his position in the playoffs last year.

He is still as unproven as LeBron, AD, Harden, Giannis, KD, Steph when it comes to best player in the league.

If Jerami Grant is doing this to him what happens when he faces LeBron, PJ Tucker/Covington, Jae Crowder/Andre Iguodala, his former team with all the tendencies they have on him, etc.

[MisterHibachi]

Is this where we overreact and call Kawhi washed?

This is where we remind ourselves that Kawhi didn't face a top player at his position in the playoffs last year.

He is still as unproven as LeBron, AD, Harden, Giannis, KD, Steph when it comes to best player in the league.

If Jerami Grant is doing this to him what happens when he faces LeBron, PJ Tucker/Covington, Jae Crowder/Andre Iguodala, his former team with all the tendencies they have on him, etc.

Butler? Simmons? Giannis? Unless you literally mean SF rather than big wing?