How high is Jokic's ceiling on offence?

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Just looking at centers, what do you think his ceiling could be, as a realistic best case?
In my view the very worst I can imagine is top5, with only the likes of Alcindor, Shaq, Wilt and Akeem having a case to be ranked over him.
But I can actually imagine him to be the best, assuming better conditioning allowing him to have an even bigger load and with an improvement of his outside shot getting to the low 40s from three. He might already be there in RS, in terms of average impact on the team offensive rating, actually.

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[LukaTheGOAT]

His ceiling is theoretically the best, though idk if I would be ever be willing to take him over a peak Shaq offensively. I think the main difference is the aggression to score. Jokic bumped up his scoring quite a bit last postseason, but we will have to see if he has what it takes to consistently do this going forward. As we have seen at times during the RS, Jokic can be a bit passive and seemingly uninterested.
Being a center, his playmaking can only be so impactful because he doesn't always have the ball in his hands. He can't have Nash or Magic tendencies I suppose because a good percentage of the time when he finally gets the ball he has to be looking to score since his touches are more limited.

Other than aggression, if Jokic could improve his solid but unspectacular 3 point shooting, I think that could move him up a bit. Still even without these improvements, I think Jokic might be a top 3 offensive center of all time considering on who you consider a center (I think only Shaq and Kareem are ahead).

[Pelly24]

I went with five because that's where I think he'll peak, but he seems to be by far the best passer, and being able to initiate an offense is such an advantage because you can beat a defense in two ways. Jokic is probably an underrated scorer too, he could get 23-24 ppg at 60 TS% on his best year while averaging 12 rebounds and 9 assists or something. He's the best center in the NBA and if he can put together five or six more seasons like this and keep having seasons like last year and this year, i have him as top 40 player ever one day, maybe top 30.

[No-more-rings]

It definitely has top 5 all time center offense potential if we’re being serious here, and he may already be there looking at peak. His ceiling is extremely high, but i have a tough time saying he can surpass Shaq or Kareem on offense.

[Ron Swanson]

If he can increase his 3PT efficiency then it'd be hard to argue more than a handful of guys ahead of him, but his athletic ceiling prevents him from ever being the kind of dominant scorer in that Shaq/Kareem/Wilt tier of guys, so I completely disagree that his ceiling is "the best" even in theory.

[GSP]

For passing ball handling he's already the best ever at the position IMO but he needs to be a reliable shooting threat specially from 3 to really get in the discussion with the Shaqs/Kareems. He won't ever be on their level for scoring/foul drawing/offensive boards, specially automatic inside

While he did up his scoring in playoffs maybe he can be that aggressive scorer which would be needed but let's not forget he was mostly going up against Enes Kanter

[bledredwine]

I don’t think he’ll ever catch up to Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt. I said top five as an absolute ceiling. I’ll be surprised if he accomplishes that, surpassing Duncan or D Rob.

[GSP]

I don’t think he’ll ever catch up to Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt. I said top five as an absolute ceiling. I’ll be surprised if he accomplishes that, surpassing Duncan or D Rob.

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

[70sFan]

He has very high celling offensively, but I'm not sure if his passing+handles are by far the best ever. Watch some young Sabonis games. I know it's not NBA but this guy was ridiculous.

Right now I have him below top 5, but his potential is higher than that. I don't think he'd ecer surpass Kareem and Shaq though.

[bledredwine]

I don’t think he’ll ever catch up to Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt. I said top five as an absolute ceiling. I’ll be surprised if he accomplishes that, surpassing Duncan or D Rob.

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. Joakim was then shut down by Nene. This is a point not to forget, at a time when Bulls fans (and a considerable portion of realgm) believed him to be the best big in the league. Yes, Jokic is loads better than Jo, but he hasn’t asserted dominance yet.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading (and has been more so over the last decade than ever). Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has to prove himself.


Consider this. Jokic has passing as a significant ability over other bigs. But what do other bigs have over Jokic?

Kareem- unstoppable move, versatility, supreme IQ, strength, touch
Hakeem- unlimited arsenal of moves, strength and quickness, touch
Shaq- Strength/physicality, quickness’s, massive dominance. Jokic is not the scorer Shaq is.
D Rob- large gap in speed, strength

You simply can’t say how Jokic would fair against these guys, especially considering that they could likely limit him defensively. So while defense isn’t a part of this thread, it really is. How does Jokic stand up to other bigs and can he be limited? We don’t know yet. What I do know is that he’s not dominant enough for this not to be a pertinent curiosity.

Lastly, what if Hakeem or Timmy was the PG of their teams? Prime Barkley? If they had Jokic’s squad, they likely would have been. They’d rack up some Major assists as well.

[Texas Chuck]

I don’t think he’ll ever catch up to Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt. I said top five as an absolute ceiling. I’ll be surprised if he accomplishes that, surpassing Duncan or D Rob.

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. I knew that he would get shut down by Nene, and he was.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading and has been more so over the last decade than ever. Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has a lot to prove before the results in this poll can become a reality.

You are all over the place here. Noah isn't remotely a similar offensive player to Jokic. Great he passed the ball. They play completely differently.

Trae is putting up big numbers but the team results are eh. Luka was just the driver of the most efficient offense in NBA history. Is he a GOAT offensive player yet? Of course not. But just a huge gap between what Trae was doing and what he was doing.

Jokic is a truly elite offensive big man. Full stop. Period. Embiid's value is primarily on the defensive end. That's how he's talked about as a peer of Jokic, not his offense.

Just really odd stuff here.

[70sFan]

I don’t think he’ll ever catch up to Kareem, Hakeem, Shaq, Wilt. I said top five as an absolute ceiling. I’ll be surprised if he accomplishes that, surpassing Duncan or D Rob.

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. I knew that he would get shut down by Nene, and he was.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading and has been more so over the last decade than ever. Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has a lot to prove before the results in this poll can become a reality.


Consider this. Jokic has passing as a significant ability over other bigs. But what do other bigs have over Jokic?

Kareem- unstoppable move, versatility, supreme IQ, strength, touch
Hakeem- unlimited arsenal of moves, strength and quickness, touch
Shaq- Strength/physicality, quickness’s, massive dominance. Jokic is not the scorer Shaq is.
D Rob- large gap in speed, strength

You simply can’t say how Jokic would fair against these guys, especially considering that they could likely limit him defensively. So while defense isn’t a part of this thread, it really is. How does Jokic stand up to other bigs and can he be limited? We don’t know yet. What I do know is that he’s not dominant enough for this not to be a pertinent curiosity.

Lastly, what if Hakeem or Timmy was the PG of their teams? If they had Jokic’s squad, they likely would have been. They’d rack up some assists as well.

I agree with you that we shouldn't be too fast with calling him all-timer, but how can you be unsure about him vs Embiid? Joel is not close to Jokic offensively even in RS and he consistently underperforms in playoffs.

[bledredwine]

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. I knew that he would get shut down by Nene, and he was.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading and has been more so over the last decade than ever. Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has a lot to prove before the results in this poll can become a reality.

You are all over the place here. Noah isn't remotely a similar offensive player to Jokic. Great he passed the ball. They play completely differently.

Trae is putting up big numbers but the team results are eh. Luka was just the driver of the most efficient offense in NBA history. Is he a GOAT offensive player yet? Of course not. But just a huge gap between what Trae was doing and what he was doing.

Jokic is a truly elite offensive big man. Full stop. Period. Embiid's value is primarily on the defensive end. That's how he's talked about as a peer of Jokic, not his offense.

Just really odd stuff here.

Well this reads as a misunderstood, passive aggressive reply. My post went over your head. Here are the cliff notes, in points, not the analogies.

1. Duh, Jokic is way better than Noah. The point here was that stats can make a player look better than they are. This was my reasoning for Trae and Doncic, which you unintentionally agreed with in your assertion that Trae’s team sucked. In this case, stats didn’t equate to wins, supporting my point that point players have larger stats and can be misleading.

2. Jokic hasn’t proven yet that he’s a dominant offensive force. It doesn’t matter if he’s an elite passer but can’t consistently get it done. The same can be stated about Giannis on ATG lists. We will see where he ranks in upcoming years. I’m not sure what’s so disagreeable about that.

3. Timmy and Hakeem could have had inflated stats if they played point in this era. With Jokic’s cast, they very well may have played point. Centers never played point in the 90s. Positionless basketball is new. Once again, though you may find one or two examples, I’m also unsure how this is disagreeable.

4. The GOAT centers have attributes over Jokic, just as he has passing over most of them. Not sure where this was miscomputed.

5. Also duh, Jokic is an elite offensive player. Where did I say that he isn’t? But we’re comparing him to the greatest offensive players of all time. So is he elite among them? He sure hasn’t gotten the chance to show that yet. Not in my book. And the only arguments you can give are stats instead of actually series and dominance/achievement, which is exactly my fundamental point- it’s hard to say because he just hasn’t done enough in his career yet.

[bledredwine]

U could prolly argue he peaked higher than Timmy and specially Robinson on just offense. Moses is better than those 2 on that end

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. I knew that he would get shut down by Nene, and he was.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading and has been more so over the last decade than ever. Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has a lot to prove before the results in this poll can become a reality.


Consider this. Jokic has passing as a significant ability over other bigs. But what do other bigs have over Jokic?

Kareem- unstoppable move, versatility, supreme IQ, strength, touch
Hakeem- unlimited arsenal of moves, strength and quickness, touch
Shaq- Strength/physicality, quickness’s, massive dominance. Jokic is not the scorer Shaq is.
D Rob- large gap in speed, strength

You simply can’t say how Jokic would fair against these guys, especially considering that they could likely limit him defensively. So while defense isn’t a part of this thread, it really is. How does Jokic stand up to other bigs and can he be limited? We don’t know yet. What I do know is that he’s not dominant enough for this not to be a pertinent curiosity.

Lastly, what if Hakeem or Timmy was the PG of their teams? If they had Jokic’s squad, they likely would have been. They’d rack up some assists as well.

I agree with you that we shouldn't be too fast with calling him all-timer, but how can you be unsure about him vs Embiid? Joel is not close to Jokic offensively even in RS and he consistently underperforms in playoffs.

I do agree that Jokic is better offensively, but not convincingly. My point is that I’m not sure how Jokic will fair against elite defenses. I’ll have to check out more Jokic vs Embiid. The ability to overcome tough defensive players is part of being an elite offensive player. I’m just not convinced that Jokic won’t struggle as Embiid and even Giannis has, at least yet. Against tough defense, the true ATG are shown. Giannis will be there soon. Jokic might. I don’t know. That’s my point.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

I just can’t agree with that. I have a hard time calling him noticeably better than Embiid, offensively.

I do think that there is an illusion among point players in general that they are better offensive players because of the noticeable statistic increase. When Joakim Noah was shifted to our point at center, Bulls fans were calling him a star and it drove me nuts. The only difference was that Joakim was given the ball to create because we lacked a better point. I knew that he would get shut down by Nene, and he was.

If Jokic proves himself as an unstoppable offensive force, then I’ll start to believe. But statistical production, especially among point players can be very misleading and has been more so over the last decade than ever. Are Trae and Doncic among the greatest ever already? Nowhere close, but their stats indicate that they’re up there. The fact that Jokic can assist at this level gives him a unique skill, but it doesn’t make him dominant offensively until he can use it in competitive situations. Jokic also has nowhere near the scoring versatility of a Kareem, Hakeem, or D Rob. Regardless, he’s by far my favorite big and I’m rooting for him (alongside Doncic, Giannis as my favorite combo point players). But he hasn’t even been tested yet. He has a lot to prove before the results in this poll can become a reality.

You are all over the place here. Noah isn't remotely a similar offensive player to Jokic. Great he passed the ball. They play completely differently.

Trae is putting up big numbers but the team results are eh. Luka was just the driver of the most efficient offense in NBA history. Is he a GOAT offensive player yet? Of course not. But just a huge gap between what Trae was doing and what he was doing.

Jokic is a truly elite offensive big man. Full stop. Period. Embiid's value is primarily on the defensive end. That's how he's talked about as a peer of Jokic, not his offense.

Just really odd stuff here.

Well this reads as a misunderstood, passive aggressive reply. My post went over your head. Here are the cliff notes, in points, not the analogies.

1. Duh, Jokic is way better than Noah. The point here was that stats can make a player look better than they are. This was my reasoning for Trae and Doncic, which you unintentionally agreed with in your assertion that Trae’s team sucked. In this case, stats didn’t equate to wins, supporting my point that point players have larger stats and can be misleading.

2. Jokic hasn’t proven yet that he’s a dominant offensive force. It doesn’t matter if he’s an elite passer but can’t consistently get it done. The same can be stated about Giannis on ATG lists. We will see where he ranks in upcoming years. I’m not sure what’s so disagreeable about that.

3. Timmy and Hakeem could have had inflated stats if they played point in this era. With Jokic’s cast, they very well may have played point. Centers never played point in the 90s. Positionless basketball is new. Once again, though you may find one or two examples, I’m also unsure how this is disagreeable.

4. The GOAT centers have attributes over Jokic, just as he has passing over most of them. Not sure where this was miscomputed.

5. Also duh, Jokic is an elite offensive player. Where did I say that he isn’t? But we’re comparing him to the greatest offensive players of all time. So is he elite among them? He sure hasn’t gotten the chance to show that yet. Not in my book. And the only arguments you can give are stats instead of actually series and dominance/achievement, which is exactly my fundamental point- it’s hard to say because he just hasn’t done enough in his career yet.

Kareem and Shaq are, but the rest of those guys are not some of the best offensive players of all time, not even top25.
Not Hakeem, not Timmeh, not Robinson.

Jokic is having the impact of a guard on the offense, that's what makes him so unique, otherwhise he would just be another KAT.

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[RCM88x]

His absolute limit to me is 3rd behind Kareem and Shaq. He'll never be the scoring threat those guys were but passing wise he's so far ahead of everyone else imo.

[VDT]

He gets a bit overrated in this thread. He is not a go to scorer, he scores in the flow of the game but he doesnt really take over the games. He doesnt draw many fouls and he is a below average 3 point shooter at the moment (although i expect him to improve there) so i dont really see how he can increase his volume efficiently.

He does have a lot of assist and he is excellent for his position in that but i feel that the team design and game plan tends to inflate his assists count compared to other centers. Perhaps more importantly i find the assists numbers for all players (and thus their contribution to offensive impact) inflated due to how assists are counted (shortly, an assist has impact when it materially improved the scorers chance of scoring. Just passing the ball to the next guy getting assists from that has no real impact offensively).

[Ryoga Hibiki]

He gets a bit overrated in this thread. He is not a go to scorer, he scores in the flow of the game but he doesnt really take over the games. He doesnt draw many fouls and he is a below average 3 point shooter at the moment (although i expect him to improve there) so i dont really see how he can increase his volume efficiently.

He does have a lot of assist and he is excellent for his position in that but i feel that the team design and game plan tends to inflate his assists count compared to other centers. Perhaps more importantly i find the assists numbers for all players (and thus their contribution to offensive impact) inflated due to how assists are counted (shortly, an assist has impact when it materially improved the scorers chance of scoring. Just passing the ball to the next guy getting assists from that has no real impact offensively).

Not sure about this.
First of all, Jokic can score and he has a real inside/outside game. He already had a season with unreal percentages from the midrange (his second) and it's not out question to project him to become a three point shooter in the low 40s.
Second, you sell the importance of an elite high post passer really short, and the guy is not "excellent for his position", is elite for any kind of standard. The whole Denver offence is built around his reads and, super important, absolutely top level when he's on the floor. Very few centers had this kind of impact in history.

[slimreaper2021]

If Murray was better, he’d be viewed more favorably

[Statlanta]

Potentially #1 but he has clear flaws.

Like his lack of aggression and lack of athleticism.