OBPM changes of the superstars in playoffs

[Odinn21]

After rewatching ElGee's video on YouTube, I decided to look for further with BPM 2.0.
I'll be focusing more on changes from r. season to postseason. Not a direct comparison about volume.

Here's the names I could think of;
(r. season / playoffs / change / # of playoff games)

1- 8.1 obpm / 8.8 obpm / +0.7 / 172 / Michael Jordan (1987-98)
2- 7.7 obpm / 8.1 obpm / +0.4 / 193 / LeBron James (2009-18)
3- 5.5 obpm / 7.5 obpm / +2.0 / 53 / Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1974-80)
4- 8.1 obpm / 6.8 obpm / -1.3 / 93 / Stephen Curry (2015-19)
5- 6.2 obpm / 6.7 obpm / +0.5 / 133 / Shaquille O'Neal (1995-03)
6- 6.3 obpm / 6.7 obpm / +0.4 / 69 / Charles Barkley (1989-96)
7- 6.2 obpm / 6.6 obpm / +0.4 / 76 / Chris Paul (2008-17)
8- 7.7 obpm / 6.5 obpm / -1.2 / 73 / James Harden (2015-20)
9- 6.3 obpm / 6.3 obpm / 0.0 / 167 / Magic Johnson (1982-91)
10- 3.3 obpm / 6.3 obpm / +3.0 / 47 / Gus Williams (1979-84)
11- 5.8 obpm / 6.2 obpm / +0.4 / 74 / Dwyane Wade (2005-11)
12- 4.5 obpm / 5.9 obpm / +1.4 / 100 / Reggie Miller (1990-00)
13- 7.1 obpm / 5.9 obpm / -1.2 / 91 / Kevin Durant (2010-16)
14- 5.5 obpm / 5.8 obpm / +0.3 / 145 / Larry Bird (1980-88)
15- 4.5 obpm / 5.8 obpm / +1.3 / 93 / Julius Erving (1977-82)
16- 5.3 obpm / 5.7 obpm / +0.4 / 114 / Dirk Nowitzki (2002-11)
17- 5.7 obpm / 5.7 obpm / 0.0 / 67 / Steve Nash (2005-10)
18- 5.6 obpm / 5.6 obpm / 0.0 / 148 / Kobe Bryant (2001-10)
19- 5.8 obpm / 5.0 obpm / -0.8 / 128 / John Stockton (1988-98)
20- 5.2 obpm / 4.9 obpm / -0.3 / 92 / Russell Westbrook (2011-19)
21- 5.4 obpm / 4.8 obpm / -0.6 / 138 / Karl Malone (1989-00)
22- 4.0 obpm / 4.7 obpm / +0.7 / 129 / Tim Duncan (1999-07)
23- 4.6 obpm / 4.6 obpm / 0.0 / 41 / George Gervin (1977-82)
24- 4.0 obpm / 4.5 obpm / +0.5 / 67 / Moses Malone (1979-87)
25- 3.0 obpm / 4.5 obpm / +1.5 / 42 / Baron Davis (2001-07)
26- 3.3 obpm / 4.5 obpm / +1.2 / 93 / Isiah Thomas (1984-90)
27- 5.3 obpm / 4.4 obpm / -0.9 / 61 / Kevin Garnett (2000-08)
28- 2.7 obpm / 4.3 obpm / +1.6 / 102 / Hakeem Olajuwon (1986-95)
29- 4.3 obpm / 4.3 obpm / 0.0 / 87 / Kevin Johnson (1989-96)
30- 4.5 obpm / 4.2 obpm / -0.3 / 133 / Chauncey Billups (2003-10)
31- 5.4 obpm / 3.9 obpm / -1.5 / 53 / David Robinson (1990-96)
32- 4.6 obpm / 3.9 obpm / -0.7 / 57 / Gary Payton (1995-02)
33- 4.2 obpm / 3.9 obpm / -0.3 / 56 / Alex English (1982-89)
34- 5.3 obpm / 3.8 obpm / -1.5 / 40 / Dominique Wilkins (1986-91)
35- 3.2 obpm / 3.5 obpm / +0.3 / 91 / Jason Kidd (1999-07)
36- 0.9 obpm / 2.6 obpm / +1.7 / 82 / Elvin Hayes (1974-80)
37- 2.0 obpm / 1.9 obpm / -0.1 / 106 / Patrick Ewing (1988-97)

Some second bananas or superstars with a shorter time periods;
6.5 obpm / 7.8 obpm / +1.3 / 59 / Kawhi Leonard (2016-20)
5.6 obpm / 5.4 obpm / -0.2 / 65 / Clyde Drexler (1988-92)
6.7 obpm / 4.4 obpm / -2.3 / 39 / Damian Lillard (2016-20)
3.7 obpm / 3.9 obpm / +0.2 / 67 / Pau Gasol (2008-10)
3.9 obpm / 3.5 obpm / -0.4 / 136 / Scottie Pippen (1991-98)
4.3 obpm / 3.3 obpm / -1.0 / 146 / Manu Ginobili (2005-14)
3.4 obpm / 3.3 obpm / -0.1 / 119 / Kevin McHale (1984-91)
2.7 obpm / 3.1 obpm / +0.4 / 117 / James Worthy (1985-91)
2.7 obpm / 2.0 obpm / -0.6 / 129 / Tony Parker (2006-14)

Notes;
- Kareem, Reggie, Dr. J, Hakeem and Kawhi had insane level of increase. Wish we had Kareem's numbers for the first 4 seasons of his career.
- It's impressive that MJ and LBJ had even better values in postseason play while they were already better than +7.5 in regular season.
- Lillard (wowza), Curry, Harden, KD, DRob took the cake in negative direction. I was surprised to see Manu's numbers. I'm also surprised to see Stockton losing more than his PnR buddy. Garnett is in there, too.
- Shaq's, Barkley's and CP3's trajectories are nearly identical. Also Nash's and Bryant's ones are.
- 20-30 range is pretty crowded with bigs considered next to each other many times. Though crowded with some clear winners and some clear losers.
- Another surprise was Bird for me. Prior to his first MVP season, he struggled on offense in playoffs. I guess his MVP seasons made up for more than that.
- I listed 46 names and -0.4 to 0.5 range covers half of the names with 23.

I'm probably forgetting someone. If you see those names, please let me know. I focused on players, superstars with at least 3 consecutive playoffs appearances.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

It's kinda cool how some of the outliers (both positive and negative) actually do align with the seeming consensus eye-test/narrative

[Odinn21]

It's kinda cool how some of the outliers (both positive and negative) actually do align with the seeming consensus eye-test/narrative

Aside from Ginobili, there was no big surprises for me. Even if I shorten the time frame for Ginobili to 2005-11, he still went 4.0 obpm in the playoffs from 4.6 obpm.

BPM 2.0 rewards scoring volume more than the previous version very clearly BTW. With BPM 1.0, I wouldn't expect Moses to have those numbers. But here he is. It's also obvious from Kawhi having those numbers.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Thank you so much for this. Really great job and definitely something I will have to refer back to in future discussion.

[70sFan]

Great job, very interesting to read!

I don't think I'd include 1983 as Gervin's prime. 1977-82 Gervin looks much better in this comparison.

Elvin Hayes had huge upgrade, I didn't expect that.

[Odinn21]

Great job, very interesting to read!

I don't think I'd include 1983 as Gervin's prime. 1977-82 Gervin looks much better in this comparison.

Elvin Hayes had huge upgrade, I didn't expect that.

You're right about Gervin. I went by memory and in '83, the Spurs made it to the Western Conference Finals. That got me carried away. Changed it to 1977-82.

[NO-KG-AI]

Cool stuff! I don't see anything here that really shocks me at all.

[E-Balla]

All expected. Makes sense the 4 players I'm furthest from the consensus on (in the negative direction) are Curry, Harden, KD, and Robinson.

[cupcakesnake]

Great topic. Really fun to browse these numbers in one place

- Not surprised to see Garnett considering most of his playoff experience is getting destroyed by a superior team in the first round. It was no impossible task for a high seeded West team to target KG and limit his offense.

- I think Dame Lillard's small sample size is misleading due to his annihilation at the hands of the Pelicans in 2018 where he posts a -1.9 OBPM. Then again, when you get destroyed that badly you deserve the ugly number. Even without that number he's been dipping in the playoffs.

- Like many, I'm such a Ginobili fan, but he definitely had some uneven playoff performances. In 2013 I thought he was pretty much done as a big time playoff performer, but he bounced back the next year. I can't remember every specific series, but I have memories in my head of NBA commentators conversing in game about Ginobili's struggles. It's always funny trying to assess Ginobili's prime, because he came into the league at 25 and played until he was 39. In 2013 he was 35 and had every right to be cooked. Then he bounced back for one more really strong season and an extended plucky twilight.

- Reggie Miller has to be one of the most perfect examples of the alienation between basic numbers + mass fan perceptions and impact research + eye test. On the GB, or in many casual conversations about basketball, fans routinely call Reggie Miller one of the most overrated players of all time, even questioning why he's in the hall of fame and saying he's way worse than Ray Allen. Anybody who watched him remembers an insane competitor, and any deep dive into the numbers backs that up.

- Billups dipping is a bit surprising, considering his reputation as a clutch playoff performer. But also those Detroit years were mostly defensive slogs through the playoffs until that awkward late Detroit period where they tried to re-invent themselves as an offensive team under Flip Saunders.

[ardee]

That Kareem boost is INSANE.

Sent from my SM-A505F using RealGM mobile app

[NY 567]

Pretty big drops for Curry and Harden

[Odinn21]

Great topic. Really fun to browse these numbers in one place

- Not surprised to see Garnett considering most of his playoff experience is getting destroyed by a superior team in the first round. It was no impossible task for a high seeded West team to target KG and limit his offense.

- I think Dame Lillard's small sample size is misleading due to his annihilation at the hands of the Pelicans in 2018 where he posts a -1.9 OBPM. Then again, when you get destroyed that badly you deserve the ugly number. Even without that number he's been dipping in the playoffs.

- Like many, I'm such a Ginobili fan, but he definitely had some uneven playoff performances. In 2013 I thought he was pretty much done as a big time playoff performer, but he bounced back the next year. I can't remember every specific series, but I have memories in my head of NBA commentators conversing in game about Ginobili's struggles. It's always funny trying to assess Ginobili's prime, because he came into the league at 25 and played until he was 39. In 2013 he was 35 and had every right to be cooked. Then he bounced back for one more really strong season and an extended plucky twilight.

- Reggie Miller has to be one of the most perfect examples of the alienation between basic numbers + mass fan perceptions and impact research + eye test. On the GB, or in many casual conversations about basketball, fans routinely call Reggie Miller one of the most overrated players of all time, even questioning why he's in the hall of fame and saying he's way worse than Ray Allen. Anybody who watched him remembers an insane competitor, and any deep dive into the numbers backs that up.

- Billups dipping is a bit surprising, considering his reputation as a clutch playoff performer. But also those Detroit years were mostly defensive slogs through the playoffs until that awkward late Detroit period where they tried to re-invent themselves as an offensive team under Flip Saunders.

I'll follow those points;
- BPM takes team production into consideration. That's why even many with maintaining their per game numbers over bigger minutes (thus worse per poss numbers), their BPM went up usually. So, Garnett could've made the -0.4 to 0.5 range at least. With that dip, I think it's safe to say Garnett's offense truly suffered. Maybe not to the extent he got a reputation for it, but it's there.

- Even without 2018, Lillard went from 6.1 OBPM to 5.1 OBPM. Not as drastic surely. But the dip is very clear.

- I think many of us didn't realize Ginobili had many performance and/or health issues in the playoffs. 2005 playoffs was perfect. And that's all. In 2008, he wasn't fully healthy against the Lakers and he was just awful. In 2011, he was trying to recover from an injury, etc etc. I think if we could eliminate those unhealthy series, he'd be in that -0.4 / 0.5 safe range. But he had far too many unhealthy series, so, I think the numbers do him justice.

- I think most also underrates Ray Allen. I don't think comparing Allen to Miller, peak to peak, isn't a bad one. Ray Allen was just awesome in 2000-01 and 2004-05 season. But their prime? Their average level? It's gotta be Miller. He's one of the epitome of off-ball play's impact.

- The thing about Billups, he was actually shining before Larry Brown's departure. He went from 3.7 r. season obpm to 3.8 obpm in the playoffs. But with Saunders and Karl, he was 5.0 obpm in r. seasons and 4.6 obpm in playoffs. It's very hard to support his dip came from the Pistons being defensive slogs.

[NO-KG-AI]

Great topic. Really fun to browse these numbers in one place

- Not surprised to see Garnett considering most of his playoff experience is getting destroyed by a superior team in the first round. It was no impossible task for a high seeded West team to target KG and limit his offense.

- I think Dame Lillard's small sample size is misleading due to his annihilation at the hands of the Pelicans in 2018 where he posts a -1.9 OBPM. Then again, when you get destroyed that badly you deserve the ugly number. Even without that number he's been dipping in the playoffs.

- Like many, I'm such a Ginobili fan, but he definitely had some uneven playoff performances. In 2013 I thought he was pretty much done as a big time playoff performer, but he bounced back the next year. I can't remember every specific series, but I have memories in my head of NBA commentators conversing in game about Ginobili's struggles. It's always funny trying to assess Ginobili's prime, because he came into the league at 25 and played until he was 39. In 2013 he was 35 and had every right to be cooked. Then he bounced back for one more really strong season and an extended plucky twilight.

- Reggie Miller has to be one of the most perfect examples of the alienation between basic numbers + mass fan perceptions and impact research + eye test. On the GB, or in many casual conversations about basketball, fans routinely call Reggie Miller one of the most overrated players of all time, even questioning why he's in the hall of fame and saying he's way worse than Ray Allen. Anybody who watched him remembers an insane competitor, and any deep dive into the numbers backs that up.

- Billups dipping is a bit surprising, considering his reputation as a clutch playoff performer. But also those Detroit years were mostly defensive slogs through the playoffs until that awkward late Detroit period where they tried to re-invent themselves as an offensive team under Flip Saunders.

The crazy part about Garnett, is even if you don’t give him extra credit for being on bad teams, even eith the drop off, his playoff offense is right in line with a bunch of other big men that people consider FAR better offensive players, and he’s much closer to guys like Kobe/Nash/Bird/Dirk/Durant than they are to Jordan/Lebron/Kareem. He’s certainly closer to those guys in terms of OBPM than they are to him defensively.

Curry’s is the most jarring because more than half the run listed is on monstrous teams that make life way easier. He doesn’t have a big chunk of his numbers having to play on huge underdogs or undermanned teams. I would bet his numbers look even worse if you extract the years Durant was there from it.

[876Stephen]

Why are people so focused on differential? The difference does not matter. What matters is the actual numbers and how to compares? People use ridiculous arguments like this to downplay Curry and how amazing he is in the playoffs when he still has the 4th highest obpm on this list. Only mj,Kareem and LeBron are better.

For example Curry has a negative 1.3 drop regular to postseason and still has a higher obpm than Shaq who is considered to this unstoppable player in the postseason. What does that tell you? It tells me how dominate And all time great he is that he can drop that much and still be better than almost everyone in nba history.

[876Stephen]

Also Dirk 5.7 obpm in the playoffs
Kg 4.4 obpm In the playoffs

There not close at all

[Odinn21]

Why are people so focused on differential? The difference does not matter. What matters is the actual numbers and how to compares? People use ridiculous arguments like this to downplay Curry and how amazing he is in the playoffs when he still has the 4th highest obpm on this list. Only mj,Kareem and LeBron are better.

For example Curry has a negative 1.3 drop regular to postseason and still has a higher obpm than Shaq who is considered to this unstoppable player in the postseason. What does that tell you? It tells me how dominate And all time great he is that he can drop that much and still be better than almost everyone in nba history.

I knew someone eventually will try to point this out in favour of their favourite players without thinking further.

Are you going to agree that Reggie Miller or Russell Westbrook was a better offensive player than Karl Malone or Hakeem Olajuwon?
You don't even consider how your thought of process would play out for other situations.

Also, Curry falls of short what Shaq's impact in the playoffs.

While O’Neal’s creation doesn’t compare to the elite perimeter engines like MJ, it was strong for a post player, and, coupled with his offensive rebounding and ability to foul out entire front lines, made him a playoff nightmare. As a result, Shaq’s playoff offenses were nearly unrivaled. From 1995-2002, he had the second-best eight-year run of any lead player in NBA history (+8.8 rORtg) and his 1997-2001 Lakers had the best five-year postseason offense in history.

https://backpicks.com/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

[876Stephen]

Why are people so focused on differential? The difference does not matter. What matters is the actual numbers and how to compares? People use ridiculous arguments like this to downplay Curry and how amazing he is in the playoffs when he still has the 4th highest obpm on this list. Only mj,Kareem and LeBron are better.

For example Curry has a negative 1.3 drop regular to postseason and still has a higher obpm than Shaq who is considered to this unstoppable player in the postseason. What does that tell you? It tells me how dominate And all time great he is that he can drop that much and still be better than almost everyone in nba history.

I knew someone eventually will try to point this out in favour of their favourite players without thinking further.

Are you going to agree that Reggie Miller or Russell Westbrook was a better offensive player than Karl Malone or Hakeem Olajuwon?
You don't even consider how your thought of process would play out for other situations.

Also, Curry falls of short what Shaq's impact in the playoffs.

While O’Neal’s creation doesn’t compare to the elite perimeter engines like MJ, it was strong for a post player, and, coupled with his offensive rebounding and ability to foul out entire front lines, made him a playoff nightmare. As a result, Shaq’s playoff offenses were nearly unrivaled. From 1995-2002, he had the second-best eight-year run of any lead player in NBA history (+8.8 rORtg) and his 1997-2001 Lakers had the best five-year postseason offense in history.

https://backpicks.com/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

I agree with all of that. No Reggie and Westbrook are not better than malone and Hakeem and no Curry is not as good as Shaq in the playoffs. My point is people take individual statistics like this and use them to make any argument they won’t. People will see negative or positive differentials for these players with no other context and make wildly inaccurate declarative statements like “Curry underperforms in the playoffs” And here’s the one context less stat that shows it even tho he still stacks up favorably with everyone in that same stat.

[Doctor MJ]

Thanks for your work Odinn!

Shout out to Baron Davis:

2.2 obpm / 4.8 obpm / +2.6 / 50 / Baron Davis (2000-12)

I believe that's the largest improvement we've seen on an absolute scale, and even more dramatic proportionately.
Also would 20th or 21st on the list (before or after Karl Malone), which is certainly more than I think anyone was expecting.

[Bidofo]

Reggie is a better offensive player than Malone and Hakeem though

[Odinn21]

Reggie is a better offensive player than Malone and Hakeem though

I've been saying creating/running an offense perspective made us overlook carrying an offense.

Let's give Reggie Miller Olajuwon's defense and Reggie also keeps his offense. Do the Rockets still win those titles? I certainly do not think so.

Why are people so focused on differential? The difference does not matter. What matters is the actual numbers and how to compares? People use ridiculous arguments like this to downplay Curry and how amazing he is in the playoffs when he still has the 4th highest obpm on this list. Only mj,Kareem and LeBron are better.

For example Curry has a negative 1.3 drop regular to postseason and still has a higher obpm than Shaq who is considered to this unstoppable player in the postseason. What does that tell you? It tells me how dominate And all time great he is that he can drop that much and still be better than almost everyone in nba history.

I knew someone eventually will try to point this out in favour of their favourite players without thinking further.

Are you going to agree that Reggie Miller or Russell Westbrook was a better offensive player than Karl Malone or Hakeem Olajuwon?
You don't even consider how your thought of process would play out for other situations.

Also, Curry falls of short what Shaq's impact in the playoffs.

While O’Neal’s creation doesn’t compare to the elite perimeter engines like MJ, it was strong for a post player, and, coupled with his offensive rebounding and ability to foul out entire front lines, made him a playoff nightmare. As a result, Shaq’s playoff offenses were nearly unrivaled. From 1995-2002, he had the second-best eight-year run of any lead player in NBA history (+8.8 rORtg) and his 1997-2001 Lakers had the best five-year postseason offense in history.

https://backpicks.com/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

I agree with all of that. No Reggie and Westbrook are not better than malone and Hakeem and no Curry is not as good as Shaq in the playoffs. My point is people take individual statistics like this and use them to make any argument they won’t. People will see negative or positive differentials for these players with no other context and make wildly inaccurate declarative statements like “Curry underperforms in the playoffs” And here’s the one context less stat that shows it even tho he still stacks up favorably with everyone in that same stat.

I didn't do that to show some are just bad playoff performers. I simply did and these are the result.

Like every other stats, numbers, these ones need context as well. Look at Harden and Durant, and then Wade. I'd take Wade to lead my offense in the playoffs without thinking twice. I just wanted to see the picture of BPM 2.0 with ElGee's approach. That's all.