So I've thought about it some, and I have 9 guys who are clearly in the lead now from the new class, and I expect possibly several of them to be minority opinion.
I have 4 guys that seem clearly better than anyone from the last class:
Shaquille O'Neal - King of the Class
Steve Nash - y'know how high I am on him. 'nuff said
Jason Kidd - earned a spot and then some
Ray Allen - unimpeachable resume
Then I have, would you believe it, 4 Pistons:
Ben Wallace - the symbol of the 2004 championship, the man they built around, MVP of the year, source of team identity
Rasheed Wallace - maybe more a Blazer than a Piston, but his body of work is big
Chauncey Billups - often seen as the best all-around player of the 3 teammates
Grant Hill - superstar who recovered from injury to be an outstanding role player
The last of the 9?
Baron Davis - this wasn't simply a showdown between 1999 Draft guys, but there are a lot of guys there that are pretty debatable relative to each other, and I'm sure it's far from obvious that I picked Baron from that bunch. Why?
Well first to be clear, Manu Ginobili isn't eligible for 2015. If he were he'd have been the #1 guy from 1999.
Okay, so next, I'm expecting folks know that Baron's had some success as a star. Understandable if he's filed away as a C-lister with low efficiency and that makes him seem like he just isn't at this level, but as is often the case, +/- analysis is at the roots for why I'm championing him.
Basically, I did a bunch of analysis along these lines, and looked to see what popped out.
First thing, if you go by ElGee's
+/- GOAT list, there is no one on that list ahead of Davis who I'm putting Davis ahead of here.
If we take guys eligible here, here's the leaderboard:
1. Shaquille O'Neal
2. Jason Kidd
3. Steve Nash
4. Rasheed Wallace
5. Ray Allen
6. Baron Davis
7. Vlade Divac
8. Shawn Marion
9. Grant Hill
10. Eddie Jones
I'm not saying you should just go by this, I'm certainly not, but based on stuff like this, Baron's in the conversation (as are Divac, Marion, and Hill).
Now, I've mentioned before that as we neared the modern era of players I started doing some team based +/-, most of it just raw +/- leaderboards. (
Spreadsheet)
I was hoping this would prove insightful because I think in general you have to understand +/- stats in a team context to understand what's going on. While it's very valuable to be the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a team, it's worth understanding who is consistently making their team win more when they are on the court compared to teammates. Doing it once or twice could be a fluke, but doing it more means something I think.
The spreadsheet sheet linked directly to above has a leaderboard which I wouldn't use to start your analysis (look at the other tabs), but it summarizes things well.
Of the guys I expect to be candidates here, here's what the leaderboard looks like:
8 - Jason Kidd, Shaquille O'Neal, Steve Nash
7 - Baron Davis
5 - Ray Allen
4 - Eddie Jones, Mookie Blaylock, Rasheed Wallace
3 - Ben Wallace, Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, Rashard Lewis, Tim Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, Vlade Divac, Yao Ming
2- Shawn Marion
1 - Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas, Jermaine O'Neal, Michael Redd, Peja Stojakovic, Sam Cassell
So obviously, Davis is a stand out by this approach. Before I get into this group, let me mention some examples that also place highly:
Kyle Korver - 7 - I actually think this is something of a big deal and if he were eligible may well vote for him, but he's not
Lou Williams - 6 - This says good things, but small good things. This happened as 6th Man on bad teams, and should not make you fundamentally rethink Lou. It's a great example of how this can be meaningful, but not in a player-ranking way.
Bo Outlaw - 5 - Actually is eligible, but my impression is that this is more about being the most effective player on meh teams. I'll listen if someone else wants to make a case for him, but I wasn't prepared to do it.
Also worth noting:
The top 4 players on this list were "dominant" over extended runs, and also led more than one team. Interestingly, the most dominant run of all of the is arguably Baron Davis who led his team in +/- totals 7 times in 8 years (4 years on CHA/NOH, and 3 out of 4 on GS).
Additionally, Mookie 4-peated, Sheed led 4 out of 5 years in Portland, and Hill 3-peated in Detroit, and Penny & McGrady both 3-peated in Orlando. (Also Bo Outlaw 3-peated for the Clippers.)
Those are your top tier "primes" for +/- dominance of this bunch (and Outlaw).
I would not advocate for ranking by this dominance, so much as I'm using it to paint a picture, and make clear why it is when I did all of this analysis, Baron Davis was the non-obvious guy who popped.
Now further on Davis:
He's notoriously an inefficient shooter. So even if he's the MVP of meh teams, does that perhaps indicate a hard ceiling? To be frank, I've looked at this being ready to write him off...but Baron kicks ass in the playoffs. Seriously, he's the driving force on to of the most resounding upsets in recent playoff history (Charlotte over Miami, Golden State over Dallas.) and when he was doing that, his efficiency got a lot better. I don't want to just ignore the efficiency issue, but I can't claim it's any kind of a true ceiling given what I saw him do in the post-season.
Davis' career falls off a cliff when he goes to the Clippers and it's appropriate to knock him for not having further longevity, but I'll just say: What happened on the Clippers was awful. You have Davis coming to play with Elton Brand, and Brand deciding to leave. WTF? How can that even happen? It's so strange I'm not sure how to categorize it, but I can say that I can imagine anyone being happy to play for Donald Sterling, and if the reason you were going there just left, I think you'd struggle to fight the good fight too.
F Donald Sterling.
Okay, a bit on the obvious "How could you leave him off?!" guy:
I'm not all that impressed by McGrady's career. You might note that Shawn Marion is a legit candidate here, and you might remember that I have major negative penalties I attach to Marion for pushing his way out of the only situation that would make him Hall-worthy because of his ego. That's probably going to keep him from getting my vote here...but it's frankly mild compared to what I see from TMac.
Marion leaves Phoenix at 29 and falls into obscurity.
McGrady? He leaves Orlando at age 24 after he'd already left another team. This is a guy who chose to leave one team because he was overshadowed, then chose to leave the next because he didn't have enough help, and then lifted his new team like not at all. McGrady tends to get cut slack because the team was still good, but this was a guy with crap efficiency basically his whole career - yah think maybe the Rockets don't underachieve so reliably if McGrady's actually using Yao & co to make sure he himself puts up only good shots?
I see McGrady as he was as a floor raiser who wasn't happy being a floor raiser, and volume scorer who didn't adapt despite the fact it made sense for him to adapt at a super-young age.
By contrast, Grant Hill is 28 when injury cripples his career, it takes him years to recover, and he still finds a way to be very valuable in his 30s. Drastically more impressive.
I also favor Penny over McGrady if forced to choose. Yes he fell off harder than TMac after his peak, but we know that injuries were a big part of it, and we know that Penny could efficiently synergize with Shaq. I can't emphasize enough that there's a real argument to be made that Penny was more valuable than Shaq for the Magic in a way Kobe was not with Shaq. In another universe, with minor changes, we may well be talking about Penny's Finals MVPs. McGrady? He was only ever "TMac" on bad teams. When he was with good talent, he was always inefficient, and never a +/- king.
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