Dame Lillard vs Kyle Lowry- who would you rather draft?

[No-more-rings]

Long term both coming into the league as rookies, who would you take long term? Whether they're your best player or not you still have to pick one.

[PistolPeteJR]

Is this a serious question man? I’m a Raptors fan and I don’t mean to sound insulting but...

I guess my question to OP is what is YOUR logic behind thinking this might be comparable?

[bondom34]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up (if both were to retire today).

[No-more-rings]

Is this a serious question man? I’m a Raptors fan and I don’t mean to sound insulting but...

I guess my question to OP is what is YOUR logic behind thinking this might be comparable?

What's your logic for thinking it isn't?

[PistolPeteJR]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up.

Is that fair to compare right now though, considering Lowry’s been in the league SIX more years?

[PistolPeteJR]

Is this a serious question man? I’m a Raptors fan and I don’t mean to sound insulting but...

I guess my question to OP is what is YOUR logic behind thinking this might be comparable?

What's your logic for thinking it isn't?

Well considering you opened this thread and specifically selected this comparison, it’s only natural for posters to understand your intentions, don’t you think?

[bondom34]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up.

Is that fair to compare right now though, considering Lowry’s been in the league SIX more years?

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

[PistolPeteJR]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up.

Is that fair to compare right now though, considering Lowry’s been in the league SIX more years?

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

I didn’t understand it that way. I understood it to mean if both were to come in as rookies.

[bondom34]

Is that fair to compare right now though, considering Lowry’s been in the league SIX more years?

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

I didn’t understand it that way. I understood it to mean if both were to come in as rookies.

If both came in as rookies and played their careers to this point yes, Lowry would have more time accumulated.

Lowry's impact numbers have been consistently better for a really long time, its sort of hard to just shrug them off entirely, especially with a longevity edge.

Lillard has also fallen off very hard in the postseason himself, for all Lowry's issues.

[PistolPeteJR]

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

I didn’t understand it that way. I understood it to mean if both were to come in as rookies.

If both came in as rookies and played their careers to this point yes, Lowry would have more time accumulated.

Lowry's impact numbers have been consistently better for a really long time, its sort of hard to just shrug them off entirely, especially with a longevity edge.

By “if both came in as rookies” I understood a hypothetical where both came in at the same time lol. That’s why I questioned the fairness of comparing longevity numbers in the first place (:

[No-more-rings]

Is that fair to compare right now though, considering Lowry’s been in the league SIX more years?

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

I didn’t understand it that way. I understood it to mean if both were to come in as rookies.

It means what it says. And the longevity point isn't all that relevant anyway, since Lowry was pretty average his first 5-6 seasons anyways.

[PistolPeteJR]

That's the way the question is framed.

If both retire right now, who'd I put higher in terms of career impact. I'd lean Lowry I think right now.

I didn’t understand it that way. I understood it to mean if both were to come in as rookies.

It means what it says. And the longevity point isn't all that relevant anyway, since Lowry was pretty average his first 5-6 seasons anyways.

What it says is not all that clear to me (call me slow-minded *shrugs*). Can you please clarify based on the discussion above?

[bondom34]

To this point Lowry's got about an extra 6K career minutes with a slight advantage in cumulative all in 1 metrics. Postseason follows the same general idea (few more minutes, cumulative numbers follow a bit higher too).

Straight impact numbers have been in Lowry's favor for a while now, 5 year RAPM has him favored pretty much every sample I've seen. PIPM actually leans Lowry peak too (though I don't really agree there).

Maybe it's me reading the question incorrectly too, though I feel its closer to a tossup and could be swayed, but I'd value the longevity argument. Lowry's career leads in VORP, WS, PIPM wins added, and his other APM samples seem consistently better. Entirely different styles of player, but if I'm talking all time ranking as of today I think they're fairly close.

Edit: And thinking I really could go either way. I definitely see Lillard's case, I've seen Lowry as a Billups type player and I think Chauncey is in that vicinity all time (top 15ish PG). I'm even less sure thinking about it longer but not sure if it's peer pressure or an internal bias or just looking at it. Some cumulative metrics really favor Lowry as well. I'm second guessing myself already, don't know if it's because of poll results or if I'm just putting too much weight in numbers or if its just peer pressure and I need to hear a stronger case.

Could someone make the Lillard argument on more than just being better right now/peak?

[Doctor MJ]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up (if both were to retire today).

So it sounds like you guys are talking about two different things:

Who has had the better career to this point?

vs

Who would you draft?

While I'd personally give Lillard the career edge, I can understand someone favoring Lowry.

If I'm drafting though, there's just the matter that Lillard was a proto-franchise player from day one while Lowry really had a lot he had to figure out - game development, attitude, anxiety - which is why he kept switching teams before finally finding a Dame-in-Portland like home in Toronto.

[Ron Swanson]

Maybe Lowry is still underrated by the casual fan, but I don't see any possible case for him over Lillard. Zero.

Even if you rate the "longevity" aspect higher, Lowry didn't really become an All-Star caliber guy until his 6th-7th season in the league. Lillard is and has been a borderline MVP caliber offensive player that you can build a winning franchise around.

[bondom34]

This came from me, and I know it's a minority opinion. Ultimately it's longevity vs peak to me, and I think Lowry was a better player for longer than Lillard has so far. Lillard's peak has been higher, but if I go back 4-5 years I'd have Lowry at an all star/borderline all NBA level and Lillard not terribly close to it. Both have good and awful playoff performances. Impact numbers favor Lowry fairly significantly for earlier seasons while Lillard has come on more recently.

Entirely different styles and a matter of peak vs longevity and right now I think its a toss up (if both were to retire today).

So it sounds like you guys are talking about two different things:

Who has had the better career to this point?

vs

Who would you draft?

While I'd personally give Lillard the career edge, I can understand someone favoring Lowry.

If I'm drafting though, there's just the matter that Lillard was a proto-franchise player from day one while Lowry really had a lot he had to figure out - game development, attitude, anxiety - which is why he kept switching teams before finally finding a Dame-in-Portland like home in Toronto.

Yeah I think this might be a part of it too. I don't really put a ton into Lowry figuring it out vs Lillard being thrown right into it myself, just because in the end I'd still take a guy who comes out as the better player/career.

Thinking along similar lines to the 2nd point something akin to Tatum vs maybe a Donovan Mitchell type player. Granted in that case I think Tatum's just better period, but I don't know I'd look at it differently just because it took him a few years to get there.

I definitely get Lillard's case too (and even if I think it's a tossup now by a year or two I'd expect him to surpass Lowry). Lowry's career is a really strange evaluation depending on how you weigh those early seasons.

[Dupp]

Lowry took a long time to get his feet and become the player he has been for the raptors. That works against him longevity wise imo. Lillard was a lot better sooner.

[Cavsfansince84]

The thing with Lillard is I feel like he's one of those guys who obviously needs to shoot a lot in order to be effective but at the same time I'm not sure I really want him being the primary building block of my team if my goal is to win a title. With Lowry I think he can more easily take a backseat to other players who are better and thus makes the idea of winning a title more realistic which is what we saw in 2019. So while Lillard is almost universally considered the better player I think there is some logic in choosing Lowry here.

[prophet_of_rage]

Lillard now competes with Steph as most dangerous shooter in the game. Nurse would do more with Lillard than he can with Lowry. Lillard would have to take charges, though.

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[RodyTur10]

I like Lowry, always have, but Lillard is a tier higher to me and clearly the guy you want to have.