RealGM

Which combo is better?

I'd like to wait for playoffs before picking in this thread. It seems that James has much more left than Julius, but I believe that Moses was far better than Davis.

70sFan wrote:I'd like to wait for playoffs before picking in this thread. It seems that James has much more left than Julius, but I believe that Moses was far better than Davis.

How about looking at it as LeBron vs Moses and Julius vs Davis? Say we get typical playoff LeBron, LeBron vs Moses would be pretty close (interested in your opinion on who would be better), but I think Davis would be comfortably better than Julius.

Bidofo wrote:

70sFan wrote:I'd like to wait for playoffs before picking in this thread. It seems that James has much more left than Julius, but I believe that Moses was far better than Davis.

How about looking at it as LeBron vs Moses and Julius vs Davis? Say we get typical playoff LeBron, LeBron vs Moses would be pretty close (interested in your opinion on who would be better), but I think Davis would be comfortably better than Julius.

Yeah, that's much closer. James vs Moses is a close debate and if LeBron gets another all-time playoffs run I may pick him. If not, I'd take Moses because he was a monster in 1983 playoffs.

What I like in James this season is how his defensive effort upped since 2017. I really like his offensive role as well and he's much smarter player than Malone. His consistency in postseason would be a key factor, especially when he has a great second option in Davis.

Moses still gets edge on defense and you couldn't do anything to stop his physical style on offense. He played perfect role for his attributes, he didn't dominate the ball and was strictly a finisher, offensive rebounder and iso scorer. His pressence made Sixers one of the best teams ever. Such a shame that he lost motivation after 1983...

Julius vs Davis is also interesting topic. Similary to Moses vs James, Julius is much smarter player than Davis and even though he scored terribly in postseason he still contributed in a lot of ways. It depends on how well will Davis play in playoffs - I like his defense this season and he's a nice second scoring option but I'm not sure if he has better RS than 1983 Julius.

Bidofo wrote:

70sFan wrote:I'd like to wait for playoffs before picking in this thread. It seems that James has much more left than Julius, but I believe that Moses was far better than Davis.

How about looking at it as LeBron vs Moses and Julius vs Davis? Say we get typical playoff LeBron, LeBron vs Moses would be pretty close (interested in your opinion on who would be better), but I think Davis would be comfortably better than Julius.

Using Davis vs Moses makes sense as they lead the teams in regular stats and the analytical ones. Also it was first year with new franchise.

LeBron is a tier above Moses and Davis is probably a tier above Erving at that point in his career too. I don't think it's a massive gap but I think it's a clear enough difference so far. I don't think either James or Davis will be as meh as Dr was in the postseason ether, but that's yet to be seen. FWIW the Lakers have had a better SRS than the 6ers did too.

6er roster was just so much better. Lakers have no one close to the caliber of player than Cheeks and Jones were that season. I think equivalents to those guys in today's league are like Sabonis and someone like Rubio or Marcus Smart. All three of those guys are much better than the 3rd best guy on the Lakers (Danny Green or Dwight?).

JordansBulls wrote:

Bidofo wrote:

70sFan wrote:I'd like to wait for playoffs before picking in this thread. It seems that James has much more left than Julius, but I believe that Moses was far better than Davis.

How about looking at it as LeBron vs Moses and Julius vs Davis? Say we get typical playoff LeBron, LeBron vs Moses would be pretty close (interested in your opinion on who would be better), but I think Davis would be comfortably better than Julius.

Using Davis vs Moses makes sense as they lead the teams in regular stats and the analytical ones. Also it was first year with new franchise.

I see the reason for your thread here .

Davis doesn’t lead in “analytical” ones unless the only analytical ones you consider are box score driven (PER, WS, WS/48) although I suppose BPM/VORP don’t count.
RPM, RAPM, PIPM, RAPTOR all paint a different story because the fact of the matter is that the Lakers haven’t been good at all with LeBron off the court and AD.

LeBron + AD: 1317 minutes
ORtg: 112.6, DRtg: 102.3, NET +10.3
LeBron: 54.1 eFG%, 57% TS
AD: 54.1 eFG%, 60.2% TS

AD ON, LeBron OFF: 517 minutes
ORtg: 111.9, DRtg: 114.4, NET -2.5

AD OFF, LeBron ON: 776 minutes
ORtg: 113.5, DRtg, 103.0, NET +10.5

Lakers with AD on court and LeBron off have fell off a cliff. And people can’t go with the usual “but the team is built around LeBron!!” because it isn’t as they play with two bigs, play with Rondo, etc.

homecourtloss wrote:

JordansBulls wrote:

Bidofo wrote:How about looking at it as LeBron vs Moses and Julius vs Davis? Say we get typical playoff LeBron, LeBron vs Moses would be pretty close (interested in your opinion on who would be better), but I think Davis would be comfortably better than Julius.

Using Davis vs Moses makes sense as they lead the teams in regular stats and the analytical ones. Also it was first year with new franchise.

I see the reason for your thread here .

Davis doesn’t lead in “analytical” ones unless the only analytical ones you consider are box score driven (PER, WS, WS/48) although I suppose BPM/VORP don’t count.
RPM, RAPM, PIPM, RAPTOR all paint a different story because the fact of the matter is that the Lakers haven’t been good at all with LeBron off the court and AD.

LeBron + AD: 1317 minutes
ORtg: 112.6, DRtg: 102.3, NET +10.3
LeBron: 54.1 eFG%, 57% TS
AD: 54.1 eFG%, 60.2% TS

AD ON, LeBron OFF: 517 minutes
ORtg: 111.9, DRtg: 114.4, NET -2.5

AD OFF, LeBron ON: 776 minutes
ORtg: 113.5, DRtg, 103.0, NET +10.5

Lakers with AD on court and LeBron off have fell off a cliff. And people can’t go with the usual “but the team is built around LeBron!!” because it isn’t as they play with two bigs, play with Rondo, etc.

Tbf while its not built around lebron its built in a way that lebrons fully needed. The on-off stuff is pretty weird honestly, i think its more noise than anything that theyre hurt more on D without bron than without davis, although i guess it might make sense if you consider that both dwight and mcgee are good rim protectors whereas Lebrons the only good defender against strong wings, other than davis who marks them on switches more so

Its suprising their offense is good without bron, really suprising actually. Tbh neither i feel are being used to full strength, lebron just doesnt have a lebron cast around him although hes having an amazing year either way, but Davis just fully isnt playing like he did in new orleans and it kinda sucks, since NOP davis + lebron would be crazy (role wise). I mean the pelicans had amonf the worst spacing in the league and no playmaker even close to bron, and now hes basically less effecient inside the arc

MyUniBroDavis wrote:

homecourtloss wrote:

JordansBulls wrote:
Using Davis vs Moses makes sense as they lead the teams in regular stats and the analytical ones. Also it was first year with new franchise.

I see the reason for your thread here .

Davis doesn’t lead in “analytical” ones unless the only analytical ones you consider are box score driven (PER, WS, WS/48) although I suppose BPM/VORP don’t count.
RPM, RAPM, PIPM, RAPTOR all paint a different story because the fact of the matter is that the Lakers haven’t been good at all with LeBron off the court and AD.

LeBron + AD: 1317 minutes
ORtg: 112.6, DRtg: 102.3, NET +10.3
LeBron: 54.1 eFG%, 57% TS
AD: 54.1 eFG%, 60.2% TS

AD ON, LeBron OFF: 517 minutes
ORtg: 111.9, DRtg: 114.4, NET -2.5

AD OFF, LeBron ON: 776 minutes
ORtg: 113.5, DRtg, 103.0, NET +10.5

Lakers with AD on court and LeBron off have fell off a cliff. And people can’t go with the usual “but the team is built around LeBron!!” because it isn’t as they play with two bigs, play with Rondo, etc.

Tbf while its not built around lebron its built in a way that lebrons fully needed. The on-off stuff is pretty weird honestly, i think its more noise than anything that theyre hurt more on D without bron than without davis, although i guess it might make sense if you consider that both dwight and mcgee are good rim protectors whereas Lebrons the only good defender against strong wings, other than davis who marks them on switches more so

Its suprising their offense is good without bron, really suprising actually. Tbh neither i feel are being used to full strength, lebron just doesnt have a lebron cast around him although hes having an amazing year either way, but Davis just fully isnt playing like he did in new orleans and it kinda sucks, since NOP davis + lebron would be crazy (role wise). I mean the pelicans had amonf the worst spacing in the league and no playmaker even close to bron, and now hes basically less effecient inside the arc

I think they’re too many minutes played for it to be just “noise”; LeBron’s DRPM has been crazy high because replacing him with another player in just about every 2 man/3 man/4 man/5 man lineup hurts the defense and NET rating regardless of who else is on court.

Here some ones I searched but they’re all pretty much like this:

Davis + Caruso ON, LeBron OFF: 309 possessions, 109.7 ORtg, 112.2 DRtg, -2.5 NET
Davis + Caruso ON, + LeBron ON: 229 possessions, 119.2 ORtg, 96.8 DRtg, +22.4 NET

Rondo + Howard ON, LeBron OFF: 172 possessions, 111.0 ORtg, 124.9 DRtg, -13.9 NET
Rondo + Howard ON, + LeBron ON: 324 possessions, 112.9 ORtg, 101.2 DRtg, +11.7 NET

Davis + Kuzma ON, LeBron OFF: 311 possessions, 106.8 ORtg, 118.5 DRtg, -11.7 NET
Davis + Kuzma ON, +LeBron ON: 232 possessions, 118.1 ORtg, 96.8 DRtg, +21.3 NET

Green + Bradley ON, LeBron OFF: 132 possessions, 110.0 ORtg, 107.2 DRtg, +2.8 NET
Green + Bradley ON, +LeBron ON: 1515 possessions, 113.5 ORtg, 103.5 DRtg, + 10.0 NET

Davis + McGee ON, LeBron OFF: 121 possessions, 101.7 ORtg, 114.9 DRtg, -13.2 NET
Davis + McGee ON, LeBron ON: 1503 possessions, 115.0 ORtg, 106.1 DRtg, +8.9 NET

Davis + Green ON, LeBron OFF: 474 possessions, 115.8 ORtg, 111.8 DRtg, +4.0 NET
Davis + McGee ON, LeBron ON: 2218 possessions, 115.5 ORtg, 104.8 DRtg, +10.7 NET

And that’s pretty wild that he’s having that much defensive impact even though he’s not at his defensive peak.

What’s interesting is that though these aren’t optimal LeBron lineups, LeBron’s making them work with any surrounding cast. Lakers’ highest ORTG is with McGee on court and LeBron’s ORtg is one of its highest with McGee on court. Lakers and LeBron have found a way to make the offense work well playing with two bigs using lob actions, 1/5 screen roll actions with LeBron as the 1 in which the 5 dives into the lane ans takes out the defender, etc. LeBron’s had great success in the past (first Cavs stint, early Heat years, 2015 and 2016 with the Cavs) playing with two bigs, and it’s only in contrast to all-time offense he’s created playing 5-out that the refrain “LeBron needs shooters” comes up. For example, Howard/LeBron/Rondo trio has posted a robust 112.2 ORtg in 324 minutes.

The LeBronless lineups have gotten much better offensively since the beginning of the year (108 ORtg from beginning of the season to Dec 31, and 112 ORtg from Jan.1st to current) but the defense still falls off of a cliff. If AD is truly a DPOY candidate, that cannot be the case. Had AD had that type of impact this year, Lakers maybe lose 7-8 gsmes, but he just hasn’t.

RCM88x wrote:6er roster was just so much better. Lakers have no one close to the caliber of player than Cheeks and Jones were that season. I think equivalents to those guys in today's league are like Sabonis and someone like Rubio or Marcus Smart. All three of those guys are much better than the 3rd best guy on the Lakers (Danny Green or Dwight?).

Those equivalents are kind of misleading because they don't account for the field. Cheeks was one of the best PG's in the league in the early 80's, while a guy like Rubio isn't really close to being one of the best PG's in the league today. Jones was a DPOY level defender with a solid offensive game.

I think the translation equivalents would be more like CP3 and prime Draymond or something... Imagine a core of AD/Dray/LeBron/CP3... That's the equivalent of the talent assembly the Sixers horder in compared to the league at the time.

homecourtloss wrote:I think they’re too many minutes played for it to be just “noise”; LeBron’s DRPM has been crazy high because replacing him with another player in just about every 2 man/3 man/4 man/5 man lineup hurts the defense and NET rating regardless of who else is on court.
Here some ones I searched but they’re all pretty much like this:
Davis + Caruso ON, LeBron OFF: 309 possessions, 109.7 ORtg, 112.2 DRtg, -2.5 NET
Davis + Caruso ON, + LeBron ON: 229 possessions, 119.2 ORtg, 96.8 DRtg, +22.4 NET
Rondo + Howard ON, LeBron OFF: 172 possessions, 111.0 ORtg, 124.9 DRtg, -13.9 NET
Rondo + Howard ON, + LeBron ON: 324 possessions, 112.9 ORtg, 101.2 DRtg, +11.7 NET
Davis + Kuzma ON, LeBron OFF: 311 possessions, 106.8 ORtg, 118.5 DRtg, -11.7 NET
Davis + Kuzma ON, +LeBron ON: 232 possessions, 118.1 ORtg, 96.8 DRtg, +21.3 NET
Green + Bradley ON, LeBron OFF: 132 possessions, 110.0 ORtg, 107.2 DRtg, +2.8 NET
Green + Bradley ON, +LeBron ON: 1515 possessions, 113.5 ORtg, 103.5 DRtg, + 10.0 NET
Davis + McGee ON, LeBron OFF: 121 possessions, 101.7 ORtg, 114.9 DRtg, -13.2 NET
Davis + McGee ON, LeBron ON: 1503 possessions, 115.0 ORtg, 106.1 DRtg, +8.9 NET
Davis + Green ON, LeBron OFF: 474 possessions, 115.8 ORtg, 111.8 DRtg, +4.0 NET
Davis + McGee ON, LeBron ON: 2218 possessions, 115.5 ORtg, 104.8 DRtg, +10.7 NET
And that’s pretty wild that he’s having that much defensive impact even though he’s not at his defensive peak.
What’s interesting is that though these aren’t optimal LeBron lineups, LeBron’s making them work with any surrounding cast. Lakers’ highest ORTG is with McGee on court and LeBron’s ORtg is one of its highest with McGee on court. Lakers and LeBron have found a way to make the offense work well playing with two bigs using lob actions, 1/5 screen roll actions with LeBron as the 1 in which the 5 dives into the lane ans takes out the defender, etc. LeBron’s had great success in the past (first Cavs stint, early Heat years, 2015 and 2016 with the Cavs) playing with two bigs, and it’s only in contrast to all-time offense he’s created playing 5-out that the refrain “LeBron needs shooters” comes up. For example, Howard/LeBron/Rondo trio has posted a robust 112.2 ORtg in 324 minutes.The LeBronless lineups have gotten much better offensively since the beginning of the year (108 ORtg from beginning of the season to Dec 31, and 112 ORtg from Jan.1st to current) but the defense still falls off of a cliff. If AD is truly a DPOY candidate, that cannot be the case. Had AD had that type of impact this year, Lakers maybe lose 7-8 gsmes, but he just hasn’t.

So I do think lebrons had a great year and is better than davis, overall, but I think one of the problems is that this kind of data is pretty noisy in general

Example: AD + Lebron off has been about 367 minutes, with a def rtg if 105.7. Lebron lineups have dine better defensively than AD lineups but idt thats neccessarily indicitive that ADs been a bad defender or anything, ex remember that kawhi year when everyone shot the three crazy whenever he was on the floor yet it wasnt really his fault?

And if you do luck adjusted rapm, lebrons defensive rapm drops while Davis's goes up. Doesnt close the gap but its a pretty significant change on both sides (if you adjust ft% and 3pt%) and i doubt that it makes sense to conclude that Lebron effects opponent 3pt% more thsn AD does, yes he communicates more but AD is literally THE big man in terms of not getting abused on mismatches and switches and contestinf threes, which is usually something that can lead to open threes (not to mention being the best rim protector in the squad).

So considering that a luck adjustment in rapm somewhat closes the gap, and all this does is treat an element of ADs defense that is almost definately superior to lebron as equal to lebron (effect on opponent 3pt%)

AD mightve not had the raw defensive impact of a DPOY type guy but it kinda makes sense when considering that His backups, Dwight and mcgee, both have been really good on defense this year, and that they pretty much always have at least 1 or 2 great rim protectirs with davis off the floor, whereas davis's impact on D comes from versatility and being a great rim protector in general. The minutes without them on the floor mightve done solidly in terms of numbers, but pretty much everytime theyve been off the floor I can remember (which hasnt been much) its much more of an example of them being saved by the rim than them being competent defensively at all

Id have less of a problem with it if there were any significant weaknesses in AD's defensive game that would explain this but there really havent been. Weve won at least 4-5 games directly from clutch defensive AD plays alone, theory wise AD is essentially the 2nd or best defensive specimin in the league physically with a pretty decent defensive iq and motor that offers a the best combination of versatility and rim protection in the league other than giannis

Idk, i believe that plus minus stats can generally tell you if youre missing something thats going on, but i dont think you can make conclusions based off of them alone. I do agree lebrons defense has been great, but lebron being over AD defensively imo is a combination of lineups (theres always a good defensive center on the court), noise (in the few minutes there havent been theyve done ok, but for the most part Ive always have gotten the feeling that theyre getting lucky vs their playing good d when a big man isnt there) and luck (3pt and ft%, esp considerinf how good AD is at contesting threes both by himself and his imoact in the team in that regard, and This treats it as equal only) along with being played out of position most of the time on D

I honestly think that to make a conclusion as big as "AD isnt really that good on D" there has to be a reasonable justification for it, but there really isnt any reasonable justification in this case, and all the evidence outside of plus minus data which i feel can largely be explained due to lineup peculiarities, noise/luck, and being played out of position, itself imo isnt evidence but more so something that can lead you in the direction of evidence, know what i mean?

RCM88x wrote:LeBron is a tier above Moses and Davis is probably a tier above Erving at that point in his career too. I don't think it's a massive gap but I think it's a clear enough difference so far. I don't think either James or Davis will be as meh as Dr was in the postseason ether, but that's yet to be seen. FWIW the Lakers have had a better SRS than the 6ers did too.

6er roster was just so much better. Lakers have no one close to the caliber of player than Cheeks and Jones were that season. I think equivalents to those guys in today's league are like Sabonis and someone like Rubio or Marcus Smart. All three of those guys are much better than the 3rd best guy on the Lakers (Danny Green or Dwight?).

Lebron a tier above Moses that year? How so? Moses was better than Kareem, Magic, Bird that year by a good margin.