Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis

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Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#1 » by SideshowBob » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:04 pm

How does 2019 and 2020 Giannis fair against Duncan and Garnett's offensive peaks? Is he appreciably better/worse or about the same?

I'm considering 02 and 03 for Duncan and 03 and 04 for Garnett as similar level years for the two and between the two, but if you have different years in mind for either one that's fine.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#2 » by No-more-rings » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:25 pm

I'd probably take both 03 Duncan and 04 KG over Giannis on offense. People can keep downplaying his poor showing against the Heat, but as it stands he seems easier to scheme against then the other 2 in a series. KG handles double teams better, is a better passer and better shooter. Duncan is much stronger and better in the post, which holds more resilience in playoff settings. Also KG was first in ORAPM in 04 and Duncan was 5th in NPI ORAPM in 03 so it's not like these guys weren't high impact offensive players in the regular season.

If Drza sees this I'm sure he'd easily make the case for at least Garnett.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#3 » by 70sFan » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:28 pm

I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#4 » by dygaction » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:03 pm

SideshowBob wrote:How does 2019 and 2020 Giannis fair against Duncan and Garnett's offensive peaks? Is he appreciably better/worse or about the same?

I'm considering 02 and 03 for Duncan and 03 and 04 for Garnett as similar level years for the two and between the two, but if you have different years in mind for either one that's fine.


Duncan > Giannis > KG for me.
I value Duncan's role as a back to the basket hub in offense, and trust him more to score down low at critical moments. Duncan's style is less susceptible to playoff's defense. KG and Giannis are comparable, but I think KG has a slight edge on defense and Giannis is slightly better on offense.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#5 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:13 pm

In terms of RS production I would go:

Giannis

KG
Duncan

In terms of PS production and overall I would go:
TD

Giannis/KG

I won't spend too much time harping on the RS portion of my response because taking a look at box-score metrics, and plus-minus stats generally give a clear answer. Due to today's heliocentrism, Giannis has one of the largest offensive loads ever and this is backed my Backpicks Offensive Load stat. His handling of the ball in the RS gives him more opportunities that the others simply didn't benefit from and he is making good use of this chance. His scoring per 75 possessions and assists per 75 possessions outpaces them and even in today's era in which teams score more, Giannis' ability to consistently handle and playmake from the perimeter gives him an advantage here. Teams not having an opportunity to gameplan for Giannis during the RS means he puts up the all-time numbers that are comparable to some of the greatest seasons from MJ, LBJ, etc. I think Garnett is better offensively during the RS not only because of plus-minus measures but because his scoring in comparison to Duncan's is similar, along with the fact that he is a much better passer.

However, during the PS, as we saw, there is a bit of a shift. Giannis' scoring and efficiency go down and the same is true of Garnett. Duncan however, is able to ramp up his scoring and carry an offense because of his reliable offensive repertoire in the low-post. This robustness to his game neither Garnett nor Giannis have and therefore are more abled to be schemed for.

Taking a look at them in the PS for their respective years:

OPIPM

Duncan: 3.65 (ORTG ON/OFF of 11.35)
Garnett: 2.82 (ORTG ON/OFF of 16.46)
Giannis: 2.73 (ORTG ON/OFF of 1.16)

OBPM

Duncan: 10.53
Garnett: 3.9
Giannis: 6.05

PER (Largely an offensive stat)

Duncan: 29.3
Garnett: 25
Giannis: 28.375

From this, it looks like to me, Duncan is the best of the 3 and that jives with my eye-test. He simply was able to create easiest looks for himself in the half-court to score.

I am a bit undecided on if Giannis is better offensively than Garnett. I think Giannis can punish weaker teams or other teams that don't have the personnel to matchup with him, like the Celtics in 2019 for example. However, you might not want either guy as your #1 option on offense, and therefore being able to get a guy who can fit into different systems might be more important. KG is more portable than Giannis with his all-time level passing, as well as his shooting and floor-spacing. You could also argue that KG can carry an offense better because of that same passing, and the numbers we see here were not with him in his ideal setting. I'm not certain, honestly, and furthermore, I really appreciate Giannis' interior gravity...even when he is not scoring, he is creating many open shots for teammates by drawing probably more doubles than KG.

Sorry that I could not fully answer your question. I am going to give the copout answer and say depending on situation, it will determine if Giannis/KG is better.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#6 » by freethedevil » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:46 pm

KG and Duncan better cause their defense AND offense held up in the playoffs better. That's not a knock though, those are two of the best playoff runs ever.

Giannis had the better rs though
70sFan wrote:I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.

FWIW, KG's one of the few cases where I think he would be better now than before. Duncan the opposite though.

Off course I'm not doing time machine to answer it.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#7 » by SHAQ32 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:07 am

One of these is not like the others.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#8 » by E-Balla » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:12 am

70sFan wrote:I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.

I'll say it for you:

I need the type of drugs y'all are on to even imagine comparing Tim Duncan to these two offensively. Please share some. :D

On a more serious note I didn't notice who opened the thread when I clicked on it and I assumed Tim was included in some sort of troll attempt originally. Duncan was single handedly a +2 offense in 2003 and because of his consistency they were basically that good no matter who they played and his play was just as good no matter who he played.

I'd also put KG over Giannis because his jumper and passing was enough to make him decent against top tier defenses. That all being said Bud isn't doing Giannis any favors having him basically run point from the top of the 3 point line all the time.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#9 » by SideshowBob » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 am

70sFan wrote:I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.



Impact/Ability: Duncan > Garnett >> Giannis
Scalability: Garnett > Duncan >> Giannis

I started a quick write-up then couldn't wrap it together. I'll try to put something up if this thread keeps rolling.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#10 » by Amare_1_Knicks » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:48 am

Giannis is a distant third here. RS wise he’s very impressive and reliable, but in the playoffs teams can take away so much more from him than the other two. 3 seasons in a row the Bucks have been sent home on the back of a competent defense building a wall to stop Giannis and it proves to be effective every time.

You couldn’t take anything away from KG or Duncan in that way.

1. Duncan
2. KG

3. Giannis
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#11 » by Odinn21 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:04 am

Amare_1_Knicks wrote:Giannis is a distant third here. RS wise he’s very impressive and reliable, but in the playoffs teams can take away so much more from him than the other two. 3 seasons in a row the Bucks have been sent home on the back of a competent defense building a wall to stop Giannis and it proves to be effective every time.

You couldn’t take anything away from KG or Duncan in that way.

1. Duncan
2. KG

3. Giannis

I think we could. If there's a clear gap between these players, it's about Timmy being the clear best and Giannis and KG are the close ones.

In the given time frame Duncan had; 5.2 OBPM in the r. seasons, 5.2 OBPM in the 1st rounds and 6.8 OBPM after the 1st rounds.
KG didn't and Giannis don't have that kind of next gear on offense.

(I wrote a long post but then decided to keep it short.)
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#12 » by E-Balla » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:33 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
70sFan wrote:I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.



Impact/Ability: Duncan > Garnett >> Giannis
Scalability: Garnett > Duncan >> Giannis

I started a quick write-up then couldn't wrap it together. I'll try to put something up if this thread keeps rolling.

How does Garnett have more scalability than Timmy? I'm kind of confused on that one, we've seen Duncan over the years play on better offenses than any offenses KG has ever been on.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#13 » by freethedevil » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:10 pm

E-Balla wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
70sFan wrote:I would like to know your opinion about it Bob ;)

I don't think I'll contribute much in this discussion again, because most of the times I'm being called biased fool (in less harsh words) and I don't think my opinion will be valuable for most posters anyway.



Impact/Ability: Duncan > Garnett >> Giannis
Scalability: Garnett > Duncan >> Giannis

I started a quick write-up then couldn't wrap it together. I'll try to put something up if this thread keeps rolling.

How does Garnett have more scalability than Timmy? I'm kind of confused on that one, we've seen Duncan over the years play on better offenses than any offenses KG has ever been on.

because he doesnt need the ball? passing fits with better teammates better than post up?
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#14 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:19 pm

Duncan proved himself to be very portable and scalable. He played in many different roles throughout his career and he was always effective.

Celtics offense was always a bit underwhelming for me given their talent on that end.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#15 » by freethedevil » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:22 pm

70sFan wrote:Duncan proved himself to be very portable and scalable. He played in many different roles throughout his career and he was always effective.

okay? he's still not come near the range of team siutations we've seen kg in. And ultimately passing is more scalable than iso an dkg is undisputably the better passer. So he would be the more scalable.
Celtics offense was always a bit underwhelming for me given their talent on that end.

Because 08 kg was definitely kg's offensive prime :-?
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#16 » by E-Balla » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:57 pm

freethedevil wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:

Impact/Ability: Duncan > Garnett >> Giannis
Scalability: Garnett > Duncan >> Giannis

I started a quick write-up then couldn't wrap it together. I'll try to put something up if this thread keeps rolling.

How does Garnett have more scalability than Timmy? I'm kind of confused on that one, we've seen Duncan over the years play on better offenses than any offenses KG has ever been on.

because he doesnt need the ball? passing fits with better teammates better than post up?

Tim Duncan needs the ball more than KG? Since when? You're talking about the same Tim Duncan seen here:



Right?

The game isn't played on paper and spreadsheets. We've seen Duncan on better offenses than KG and when KG got those teammates his scalability would be so great for they only had a +2.7 offense (and a +4.2 offense in the postseason).

And if you want to say those clips are from a decade after his peak, fine. Let's go to the 05, 06, and 07 Spurs where he was next to Manu averaging 16 a night off the bench, and TP averaging 18 a night. Just because Duncan CAN carry a weak supporting cast to the promise land doesn't mean he can't mesh well with amazingly talented teammates.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#17 » by E-Balla » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:02 pm

freethedevil wrote:
70sFan wrote:Duncan proved himself to be very portable and scalable. He played in many different roles throughout his career and he was always effective.

okay? he's still not come near the range of team siutations we've seen kg in. And ultimately passing is more scalable than iso an dkg is undisputably the better passer. So he would be the more scalable.
Celtics offense was always a bit underwhelming for me given their talent on that end.

Because 08 kg was definitely kg's offensive prime :-?

08 KG was definitely still in his offensive prime. By points per 100 it's his 3rd best scoring season under 04 and 05. His top 5 seasons by points per 100 are 04, 05, 06, 07, and 08.

Just because he's a better passer doesn't automatically make him more scalable. That's not how that works. We can look at REAL LIFE (because both guys played a whole career spanning 20 years) and see Duncan is just as scalable as KG if not more scalable because he can thrive in roles KG can't thrive in.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#18 » by freethedevil » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:14 pm

E-Balla wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
E-Balla wrote:How does Garnett have more scalability than Timmy? I'm kind of confused on that one, we've seen Duncan over the years play on better offenses than any offenses KG has ever been on.

because he doesnt need the ball? passing fits with better teammates better than post up?

Tim Duncan needs the ball more than KG? Since when? You're talking about the same Tim Duncan seen here:
Completely irrelevant to peak duncan but good job. :roll:


The game isn't played on paper and spreadsheets. We've seen Duncan on better offenses than KG and when KG got those teammates his scalability would be so great for they only had a +2.7 offense (and a +4.2 offense in the postseason).
i don't think you understand the concept of scalability. Its not about what your team does, its about how well YOU retain your value. Duncan's offensive impact plummeted on, a whopping +5 offense. How in the world does that indicate he's asn sscalable than KG? Thee is "zero evidence" to indicate duncan was super portable offensively at his apex, so "the game isn't played on spreadsheets" is a red herring. KG was never presented with the teammates for a great offense when he was one of the most valable offensive players in the league. 08 is completely irrelevant. There is no evidence based on what transpired on the court either way, so we have to look at skillsets and what do you know, kg was a much better passer at his peak than duncan was. duncan was a better isolation scorer. The latter historically results in reduced impact on better offences, the former does not. Therefore, in the absence of any compelling evidence otherwise, the best bet is KG is more scalable offensively. Fyi, same thing applies to defense as rim protection scales up worse than switching.

And if you want to say those clips are from a decade after his peak, fine. Let's go to the 05, 06, and 07 Spurs where he was next to Manu averaging 16 a night off the bench, and TP averaging 18 a night. Just because Duncan CAN carry a weak supporting cast to the promise land doesn't mean he can't mesh well with amazingly talented teammates.

But you've provided zero evidence of duncan being able to retain his offensive impact on a great offense, so I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#19 » by freethedevil » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:15 pm

E-Balla wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
70sFan wrote:Duncan proved himself to be very portable and scalable. He played in many different roles throughout his career and he was always effective.

okay? he's still not come near the range of team siutations we've seen kg in. And ultimately passing is more scalable than iso an dkg is undisputably the better passer. So he would be the more scalable.
Celtics offense was always a bit underwhelming for me given their talent on that end.

Because 08 kg was definitely kg's offensive prime :-?

08 KG was definitely still in his offensive prime. By points per 100 it's his 3rd best scoring season under 04 and 05. His top 5 seasons by points per 100 are 04, 05, 06, 07, and 08.

Just because he's a better passer doesn't automatically make him more scalable. That's not how that works. We can look at REAL LIFE (because both guys played a whole career spanning 20 years) and see Duncan is just as scalable as KG if not more scalable because he can thrive in roles KG can't thrive in.

There primes did not last 20 years. useless comment. Peak duncan never maintained his impact on exceptional offences, so REAL LIFE has zip to say about duncan's scalability.
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Re: Offense Only - 02/03 Duncan & 03/04 KG vs 19/20 Giannis 

Post#20 » by 70sFan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:58 pm

freethedevil wrote:okay? he's still not come near the range of team siutations we've seen kg in.

Actually, Garnett's role was pretty consistent for most of his career. We've seen him in Minny where his role was consistent (and not optimal for him BTW) and we've seen him in reduced role in Boston.

And ultimately passing is more scalable than iso an dkg is undisputably the better passer. So he would be the more scalable.

So would you call Chris Webber a more scalable player than Duncan as well? Because Webber was undoubtfully a better passer.

Because 08 kg was definitely kg's offensive prime :-?

I think it was to be honest, not his peak but he was still in his prime during that season. If you want to talk only about peaks, then we've never seen peak Duncan in similar situation either - he had to carry Spurs rosters when he was at his best.

It doesn't change the fact that we've seen prime Duncan (2007) and prime Garnett (2008) in reduced roles. Nothing suggest that one is much more scalable than the other.

Garnett has a bit more versatile skillset, but he also isn't as disciplined player offensively as Duncan and that thing matters when you play on all-time great team. Both fared quite well in various roles, so I don't get why should we discredit Duncan here because he's not as good passer...

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