Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger?

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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#21 » by Odinn21 » Thu Oct 8, 2020 6:23 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:When I see the question, I assumed chronologically.

Jordan had 10 prime seasons from 1986-87 to 1997-98.
James had 10 prime seasons on that level from 2008-09 to 2017-18.

Jordan's rookie season and Washington season are the remaining season for him.

I'm not particularly big on James' 2006-07 or 2007-08 season. Though before reaching his prime, James had more in his career than Jordan.

2018-19 didn't go well enough for James and I'm going to agree with wins-added and championships-added comments made so far.

So, in the end I think I'm going to say this is the season that's James' career value surpassed Jordan's one for sure. With 2018-19 being so little of a value, Jordan and James were on par at the end of 2017-18 season. The debate could go both ways. Now, it's more definite that going in James' way.


You dont think LeBrons 2007 or 2008 campaigns add any value?

2007 includes a 5th place finish in MVP, 2nd in total WS, 5.9 OBPM, 1st in league in VORP.

2008 includes a 4th place finish in MVP, 2nd in total WS, 8.2 OBPM which is 1st in league.

I would also add I believe 1985 Jordan has some real value here as a season and 2006 as well for LeBron.

I understand they may not be "prime" seasons, but they are seasons in which clear value is added both by "championships added" and "wins added".

Sure. Maybe I wasn't clear enough.

There was a discussion between them. One could argue that Jordan's 10 best season stretch was superior to James' 10 best season stretch, superior enough to make up for the gap between Jordan's rookie season and James' seasons before 2008-09.
It was close between the two.

Now, 2019-20 is the season that should kill the debate and it's James. That's what I was saying.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#22 » by No-more-rings » Thu Oct 8, 2020 6:25 pm

I still have Jordan a bit ahead, but I'd imagine for the ones that don't that probably changed between 2016-2018. I feel like leadership doesn't get discussed enough, where Jordan seems to have a clear advantage. It's fair to question Jordan's leadership too, particularly prior to Phil coming on board but it's hard for me to look past some of Lebron's negatives in regards to wanting coaches and players dismissed. He seems to have this whole "it's my way or the highway!" type of mentality and that seemed to either start or at least get progressively worse in Miami and onward. He still won many rings due to his sheer dominance, but i couldn't see him ever buying into a system the way Jordan did that resulted in 6 championships with almost the same core. It's fair to bring up that Lebron never had a legendary coach like that, but it's still something to wonder about and something that clearly ain't going to get answered as he draws closer to two decades of play.

Then there's the issue of how stable he was mentally earlier in his career, and most people seem to think that was over in 2012 but I'm not sure it wasn't there for most of his time in Miami. He had some games against the Spurs in the 2013 finals where he was looking passive, indecisive, shaky jumper etc. He finished the series greatly, but that was a very loseable series as well and if they lost, it would've been chalked up as another series where the team lost due to his underperformance rather than his teammates.

It honestly wasn't until like 2017 on where there's really nothing you could do to slow his offense, Jordan's career arc was a little different in that regard, Jordan's offense clearly peaked in like 90 or 91 and he sort of leveled out after that and eventually got clearly worse in the 2nd threepeat.

I know Lebron fans will probably disagree with most of that, but i'm just trying to offer a perspective beyond just the boring "well Lebron has 13 great seasons vs Jordan's 10" or whatever.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#23 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 8, 2020 6:44 pm

No-more-rings wrote:I still have Jordan a bit ahead, but I'd imagine for the ones that don't that probably changed between 2016-2018. I feel like leadership doesn't get discussed enough, where Jordan seems to have a clear advantage. It's fair to question Jordan's leadership too, particularly prior to Phil coming on board but it's hard for me to look past some of Lebron's negatives in regards to wanting coaches and players dismissed. He seems to have this whole "it's my way or the highway!" type of mentality and that seemed to either start or at least get progressively worse in Miami and onward. He still won many rings due to his sheer dominance, but i couldn't see him ever buying into a system the way Jordan did that resulted in 6 championships with almost the same core. It's fair to bring up that Lebron never had a legendary coach like that, but it's still something to wonder about and something that clearly ain't going to get answered as he draws closer to two decades of play.


The difference between having Dean Smith, Doug Collins and Phil Jackson vs
Dru Joyce II and Mike Brown can not be stated enough.

What makes you doubt LeBron could buy into a sytem? He literally did that in 2012, 2013 and 2014 until the wheels came off on the players who were supposed to be in the system.

It honestly wasn't until like 2017 on where there's really nothing you could do to slow his offense, Jordan's career arc was a little different in that regard, Jordan's offense clearly peaked in like 90 or 91 and he sort of leveled out after that and eventually got clearly worse in the 2nd threepeat.


I agree completely. It is why I have 2017 LeBron as my single greatest player season and a slew of Jordan seasons likely coming out ahead of many James' seasons by a slim margin in the 2009-15 era. The 2016 and 2018 seasons of James are the hardest to decide on for me compared the sheer dominance of Jordan's prime.

I know Lebron fans will probably disagree with most of that, but i'm just trying to offer a perspective beyond just the boring "well Lebron has 13 great seasons vs Jordan's 10" or whatever.


Good, that analysis is lazy and already popping up in this thread. I expect this thread to be a difficult one as both Jordan and James are two of the most polarizing forces in NBA History with regards to narratives.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#24 » by No-more-rings » Thu Oct 8, 2020 6:50 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
The difference between having Dean Smith, Doug Collins and Phil Jackson vs
Dru Joyce II and Mike Brown can not be stated enough.

What makes you doubt LeBron could buy into a sytem? He literally did that in 2012, 2013 and 2014 until the wheels came off on the players who were supposed to be in the system.

Well that's the thing though the wheels came off in 2014, and instead of giving them the chance to rebuild he stomped off to Cleveland. I'm not saying it was necessarily the wrong decision, but it's been a repeated thing throughout his career.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#25 » by RCM88x » Thu Oct 8, 2020 6:51 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
The difference between having Dean Smith, Doug Collins and Phil Jackson vs
Dru Joyce II and Mike Brown can not be stated enough.

What makes you doubt LeBron could buy into a sytem? He literally did that in 2012, 2013 and 2014 until the wheels came off on the players who were supposed to be in the system.

Well that's the thing though the wheels came off in 2014, and instead of giving them the chance to rebuild he stomped off to Cleveland. I'm not saying it was necessarily the wrong decision, but it's been a repeated thing throughout his career.


Should have just retired for a year and a half and given Miami time to rebuild I guess?
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#26 » by 70sFan » Thu Oct 8, 2020 7:07 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Blasphemous for me to have put Jordan anywhere but #1 when I was growing up, but objectively, I personally can't see a good reason to not have Kareem and LeBron over him, and I'd consider Russell as well.

That's why he's only 4th on my list, closely followed by Tim Duncan ;)
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#27 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 8, 2020 7:14 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
The difference between having Dean Smith, Doug Collins and Phil Jackson vs
Dru Joyce II and Mike Brown can not be stated enough.

What makes you doubt LeBron could buy into a sytem? He literally did that in 2012, 2013 and 2014 until the wheels came off on the players who were supposed to be in the system.

Well that's the thing though the wheels came off in 2014, and instead of giving them the chance to rebuild he stomped off to Cleveland. I'm not saying it was necessarily the wrong decision, but it's been a repeated thing throughout his career.


The consistent thing LeBron has done is put himself in the best position to win. Jordan was never on a team which was a title contender and then the wheels fell off, instead he decided to leave a title contender.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#28 » by tihsad » Fri Oct 9, 2020 12:01 am

Gregoire wrote:Let's assume, that LeBron surpassed MJ in overall career value (not necessary he is GOAT or better player, just more wins added) and assume, that peak MJ better than peak LeBron. After it rank their full seasons (or versions) from best to worst:
MJ:
91
92
90
89
93
88
87
96
97
98
85
02
03

LeBron:
13
12
17
16
09
10
18
15
14
20
08
11
19
07
06
05
04

Question: when First time Lebron's value became bigger?
1 best season - MJ better
2 best seasons - MJ
3 best seasons - MJ
4 best seasons - MJ
....
7 best seasons - ?
9 best seasons -?
11 best seasons -?


I've tried to make a point of avoiding these Jordan comparison threads as of late, but you being a poster I enjoy I'll make a luke warm response. My first answer is: don't make them as they tend to go nowhere and fall prey to ham handed tribalism (the MJ lovers, the KAJ fawners, the LBJ crew - it's all the same). Secondly, the value added approach is a relatively new endeavor, mostly a response to Elgee's exceptional ranking project, which, while I personally find a number of errors and biases with, is still the best listing of it's kind. It's concept basis, if I'm not mistaken, is that a player that adds a 5% of winning a title over 20 years is superior to a player adding a 20% chance of winning over 9 years. Everyone is free to have their own interpretation of if this is the best measure of greatness - just know what it is. Third, and last, there is no agreed upon measure of greatness, and it's malleability is part of the enjoyment of these types of boards - but also why it's a futile exercise. I'd simply point to Doc. Mj's old excel sheet, it's rankings dating back to the mid 2000s, and how much has changed in 15 years. Is this the results of better measures of impact, um, sure, if any of them could be successfully applied over more then 20 years (and actually remained constant). At the end of the day this is all simply opinion, which is hunky dory, as long as everyone remembers that.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#29 » by mysticOscar » Fri Oct 9, 2020 12:51 am

The case for Lebron is really his outstanding longevity. I can no longer.claim that Kareem has had better longevity than Lebron just in terms of sheer impact Lebron is still having this season.

Lebron I have now as my no2 atg and is the real MJ version after MJ.

In terms of dominance and the better player, I have MJ....but Lebron is not that far behind (much more failures than MJ).

In terms of career value? I mean..I just have to ask myself...which career would I prefer...Lebron or MJ...I think the answer is obvious and I know most ppl would pick the same... at this point MJ has had more success and bigger dominance in his time...this is not a slight on Lebron
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#30 » by Bidofo » Fri Oct 9, 2020 4:32 am

tihsad wrote:It's concept basis, if I'm not mistaken, is that a player that adds a 5% of winning a title over 20 years is superior to a player adding a 20% chance of winning over 9 years.

I think it's the other way around actually. He adds the championship-odds improvement for every season, so in this comparison it would be like 0.05*20 = 1 vs 0.2*9 = 1.8, which obviously favors the latter player. Then I think he creates tiers/ranges and ranks players within them how he sees fit, if it's close enough. In the end, no one can escape from the subjectivity of GOAT rankings though.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#31 » by Gregoire » Fri Oct 9, 2020 6:00 am

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
I agree completely. It is why I have 2017 LeBron as my single greatest player season and a slew of Jordan seasons likely coming out ahead of many James' seasons by a slim margin in the 2009-15 era. The 2016 and 2018 seasons of James are the hardest to decide on for me compared the sheer dominance of Jordan's prime.
.


So, you have Lebron 2017 as GOAT peak? Better than MJ?
nate33 wrote:

Yeah, when ever I make all time comparisons, I pretty much ignore the pre-3PT-line era. The game was so different then. It's apples and oranges. Those guys may be better or may be worse, we're never really going to know.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#32 » by The Master » Fri Oct 9, 2020 9:45 am

mysticOscar wrote:In terms of career value? I mean..I just have to ask myself...which career would I prefer...Lebron or MJ...I think the answer is obvious and I know most ppl would pick the same... at this point MJ has had more success and bigger dominance in his time...this is not a slight on Lebron
I don't think you've understood basic premise of this thread well. You're referring to 'accolades-based' approach ('MJ has had more success'), but I don't think it was the question meant by OP. For example, Jordan 96-98 in playoffs had much more success than LeBron 17-20, but I don't really think it can be realistically argued that in these respective seasons (in postseason) he was a better player, instead - I'd give LeBron an edge here. So, in some 'traditional' ~GOAT discussions Jordan's 96-98 seasons in terms of achievements (3x titles and 3x FMVP) are much more impressive, and yes, most people would probably choose career of Jordan 96-98 in playoffs over LeBron's in 2017-2020 - but in discussions about which player had more value (or impact) I think it can be easily argued that (in these seasons) it was LeBron, but him not winning more titles was related to external circumstances rather than his actual value brought to his teams. And, to be precise, right now I'm not starting discussion whether LeBron is a GOAT or not - on this example (Jordan 96-98 in playoffs v. LeBron 17-20) I just want to show that your ''approach'' is nowhere near answer that OP asked for.

I think LeBron's value has gotten 'bigger' at the end of 17/18 or 19/20 seasons. Right now he has four more top5 MVP votings in regular season, one more postseason appearance more (Jordan was 'lucky' to make playoffs in '86 and '95 with <20 regular season games, and in '85 he won less games than LeBron in '05) with 78 more games. The difference in top-end longevity (LeBron reastically is still the best player in the game) between these two is just bigger than potential difference in peak in favour of MJ. What does it mean to general discussions MJ v. LeBron is just a different matter and I don't want to dig into that right now.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#33 » by 70sFan » Fri Oct 9, 2020 9:48 am

mysticOscar wrote:The case for Lebron is really his outstanding longevity. I can no longer.claim that Kareem has had better longevity than Lebron just in terms of sheer impact Lebron is still having this season.


You can still pick Kareem though, here are the results of RealGM POY voting:

Top 5

James - 13(+1)
Kareem - 14

Top 3

James - 11(+1)
Kareem - 12

POY

James - 8(likely +1)
Kareem - 8

Kareem still has more top 10 seasons and I think that 1982-84 Kareem got underrated in the project (I don't see much of a case for Magic over Kareem in 1983 for example).
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#34 » by The Master » Fri Oct 9, 2020 10:07 am

No-more-rings wrote:Well that's the thing though the wheels came off in 2014, and instead of giving them the chance to rebuild he stomped off to Cleveland. I'm not saying it was necessarily the wrong decision, but it's been a repeated thing throughout his career.
I don't think that is credible argument against LeBron. When you take a look on number of seasons where LeBron did not have support that realistically gave him chances to win titles, 04-10 seasons were a waste (his best offensive player was Mo Williams and most impactful one was probably Anderson Varejao in that span), then, his last season at Cleveland ('18) and first season with Lakers ('19) were as well seasons were he realistically could not compete for chips with his teams. He lost one potential championship run in '15 as well because of injuries (Jordan in prime did not have single season where his two best players got injured in playoffs like Kyrie and Love). If you exclude his rookie season, it gives you most of his career (9/16 seasons) where LeBron's teams were objectively not good enough to compete for titles. Not to mention that in 17 and 18 LeBron met in finals some historic anomaly in NBA history named Golden State Warriors with KD. So to expect from him to take time for rebuilding process in Miami or Cleveland (and probably lose at least 1-2 more seasons of contending for titles in favour of rebuilding in his current teams) is quiet a reach.

Your counter-argument might be a statement that his empowered GM-style of leading his teams (especially Cavs) with overpaid contracts for players like JR Smith ruined long-term chances of Cavs to extend his career with contender, but while to some degree I'd agree - the biggest problem of Cavs '18 was a fact that in reality they traded All-NBA calibre player (Kyrie) for ... Jae Crowder and lottery pick.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#35 » by mysticOscar » Fri Oct 9, 2020 2:03 pm

The Master wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:In terms of career value? I mean..I just have to ask myself...which career would I prefer...Lebron or MJ...I think the answer is obvious and I know most ppl would pick the same... at this point MJ has had more success and bigger dominance in his time...this is not a slight on Lebron
I don't think you've understood basic premise of this thread well. You're referring to 'accolades-based' approach ('MJ has had more success'), but I don't think it was the question meant by OP. For example, Jordan 96-98 in playoffs had much more success than LeBron 17-20, but I don't really think it can be realistically argued that in these respective seasons (in postseason) he was a better player, instead - I'd give LeBron an edge here. So, in some 'traditional' ~GOAT discussions Jordan's 96-98 seasons in terms of achievements (3x titles and 3x FMVP) are much more impressive, and yes, most people would probably choose career of Jordan 96-98 in playoffs over LeBron's in 2017-2020 - but in discussions about which player had more value (or impact) I think it can be easily argued that (in these seasons) it was LeBron, but him not winning more titles was related to external circumstances rather than his actual value brought to his teams. And, to be precise, right now I'm not starting discussion whether LeBron is a GOAT or not - on this example (Jordan 96-98 in playoffs v. LeBron 17-20) I just want to show that your ''approach'' is nowhere near answer that OP asked for.

I think LeBron's value has gotten 'bigger' at the end of 17/18 or 19/20 seasons. Right now he has four more top5 MVP votings in regular season, one more postseason appearance more (Jordan was 'lucky' to make playoffs in '86 and '95 with <20 regular season games, and in '85 he won less games than LeBron in '05) with 78 more games. The difference in top-end longevity (LeBron reastically is still the best player in the game) between these two is just bigger than potential difference in peak in favour of MJ. What does it mean to general discussions MJ v. LeBron is just a different matter and I don't want to dig into that right now.


I don't know how anyone can take Lebrons 2017-20 over Jordan's 96-98.

3peat, 2 mvps, 3 finals mvp and part of arguably the most dominant 3 year stretch by a team.

That 3 Years from Jordan, there was a bit more separation from his peers than Lebron did in that stretch.

I've lived both those periods...jordan seemed a lot more invincible in 96-98 than lebrons 17-20 when i followed both periods.

Lebron has been also incredible in his later career...just like Jordan. These 2 players are just something else
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#36 » by mysticOscar » Fri Oct 9, 2020 2:09 pm

70sFan wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:The case for Lebron is really his outstanding longevity. I can no longer.claim that Kareem has had better longevity than Lebron just in terms of sheer impact Lebron is still having this season.


You can still pick Kareem though, here are the results of RealGM POY voting:

Top 5

James - 13(+1)
Kareem - 14

Top 3

James - 11(+1)
Kareem - 12

POY

James - 8(likely +1)
Kareem - 8

Kareem still has more top 10 seasons and I think that 1982-84 Kareem got underrated in the project (I don't see much of a case for Magic over Kareem in 1983 for example).


I'm sure u can make a case...and tbh u probably are more aware of Kareem career than i am.

Maybe im projecting a little bit...but i can see Lebron playing at this level for at least another year...but even Lebrons current body of work...he has a good case to be over Kareem in terms of individual dominance and longevity...and hence I'm ok with Lebron to have him above Kareem in my books. And I think the mass when it's set and done will feel the sane way
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#37 » by Gregoire » Fri Oct 9, 2020 2:27 pm

The Master wrote:
mysticOscar wrote:In terms of career value? I mean..I just have to ask myself...which career would I prefer...Lebron or MJ...I think the answer is obvious and I know most ppl would pick the same... at this point MJ has had more success and bigger dominance in his time...this is not a slight on Lebron
I don't think you've understood basic premise of this thread well. You're referring to 'accolades-based' approach ('MJ has had more success'), but I don't think it was the question meant by OP. For example, Jordan 96-98 in playoffs had much more success than LeBron 17-20, but I don't really think it can be realistically argued that in these respective seasons (in postseason) he was a better player, instead - I'd give LeBron an edge here. So, in some 'traditional' ~GOAT discussions Jordan's 96-98 seasons in terms of achievements (3x titles and 3x FMVP) are much more impressive, and yes, most people would probably choose career of Jordan 96-98 in playoffs over LeBron's in 2017-2020 - but in discussions about which player had more value (or impact) I think it can be easily argued that (in these seasons) it was LeBron, but him not winning more titles was related to external circumstances rather than his actual value brought to his teams. And, to be precise, right now I'm not starting discussion whether LeBron is a GOAT or not - on this example (Jordan 96-98 in playoffs v. LeBron 17-20) I just want to show that your ''approach'' is nowhere near answer that OP asked for.

I think LeBron's value has gotten 'bigger' at the end of 17/18 or 19/20 seasons. Right now he has four more top5 MVP votings in regular season, one more postseason appearance more (Jordan was 'lucky' to make playoffs in '86 and '95 with <20 regular season games, and in '85 he won less games than LeBron in '05) with 78 more games. The difference in top-end longevity (LeBron reastically is still the best player in the game) between these two is just bigger than potential difference in peak in favour of MJ. What does it mean to general discussions MJ v. LeBron is just a different matter and I don't want to dig into that right now.


Great post! But my purpose was not detect season then Lebron's value outmatch Jordan's, I wanted to detect the number of best seasons threshold where Lebron became better. Like O_6 did in his post.
nate33 wrote:

Yeah, when ever I make all time comparisons, I pretty much ignore the pre-3PT-line era. The game was so different then. It's apples and oranges. Those guys may be better or may be worse, we're never really going to know.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#38 » by Joao Saraiva » Fri Oct 9, 2020 4:21 pm

MJ has 13 seasons. 3 of them are hardly adding value in a discussion with LeBron.

LeBron has 17 seasons. 19 and 04 hardly add value.
05 he missed the playoffs and that takes a toll on the value of the season, but RS was still pretty good.

I'd say LeBron probably passed Jordan at his 14th or 15th for the way I see it. Since LBJ started with 2 seasons that hold less value, Jordan only had one in the begining.

I actually have a formula that replies to stuff like this. I'll check out what it says later.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#39 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri Oct 9, 2020 7:20 pm

Am I the only one who feels like 19 Lebron is still a very meaningful career value add in Lebron's career. I know the he was hurt and the Lakers didn't make the playoffs, but when healthy he still at worst a top 10 player in the league in my eyes. And considering how he performed this year 2020, when he is older and be getting worse, I have reason to believe in a more comfortable situation, 19 Lebron's value add would be more meaningful.

Like Kawhi in my opinion was player of the year in 2019, but he played only 60 RS games (Lebron played 55). Yet, Kawhi got to show what he was really made of in the PS and lead a team to a chip. I suppose when I look at career value, I attempt to look at a player's value in many scenarios, and just not their current situation.
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Re: Jordan vs Lebron: when Lebron's value became bigger? 

Post#40 » by 2klegend » Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:58 am

There is something you will notice about MJ's aura striking fear into his opponents that you don't see with Lebron. If Lebron plays with that mentality, he would have more success winning more titles than MJ and would be GOAT in my book now.
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