1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson

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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#61 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:42 pm

SNPA wrote:
mailmp wrote:And I refer you to how they performed against common opponents lol.

Yes because they play the same position and have the same role and supporting cast. Apples to apples, right?


Why compare anyone then.

Also imagine suggesting that Bird had some supporting cast handicap lmao.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#62 » by SNPA » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:50 pm

mailmp wrote:
SNPA wrote:
mailmp wrote:And I refer you to how they performed against common opponents lol.

Yes because they play the same position and have the same role and supporting cast. Apples to apples, right?


Why compare anyone then.

Also imagine suggesting that Bird had some supporting cast handicap lmao.


Because that’s what basketball junkies do. But taking two players of different positions and roles and grabbing box score stats from a handful of series and claiming superiority from it is pretty weak.

Stating they had different supporting casts and roles isn’t the same as saying Bird had a handicap.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#63 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:54 pm

Then your comment is empty. “They were different. But you can compare them! But do not forget that they were different!” Looking at what they did against common opponents is dramatically more valuable than going, “Well despite evidence to the contrary I am going to say they are basically equal on offence, and then because one was better on defence, that guy wins.” Like I said, Nash/Stockton all over again.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#64 » by Prez » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:59 pm

TurinTurambar wrote:I mean, not really. They have like one year where they're even within a point of each other, and other than that it breaks out about the way you would expect it to.

USG% from 2015-2017: Klay 26.6%, Wall 28.4%. Do you honestly believe the difference between one of the least ball dominant stars in all of basketball and one of the most ball dominant stars in all of basketball is well represented by just a 1.8% difference over a 3 year span?
So you're saying that you don't think measuring the number of shots taken, fouls drawn, and turnovers committed by a player is not a good indicator of how much that player has the ball in their hands?

Yeah we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

They're two totally different things. The player who ends the possession and the player who has the ball in his hands leading up to the end of a possession is not at all the same thing. A catch & shoot guy who ends a lot of possessions with FGA is not the same level of ball dominator as the guy who is handling the ball 15 seconds of possessions but just doesn't end up actually shooting.
If you have a better one, I'm all ears. Otherwise, I clearly don't agree with your thoughts on Usage with relation to the topic of the thread at all, and I fail to see the point you're trying to make here, considering I just said that it isn't perfect, or even as good as the more granular stuff available today, just that it's the best we have for the era we're looking at in this thread.

My point is just that USG% is a bad way to evaluate ball dominance because it literally isn't calculating ball dominance, and not having good alternatives (due to lack of data) isn't a good justification for using it.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#65 » by SNPA » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:01 pm

mailmp wrote:Then your comment is empty. “They were different. But you can compare them! But do not forget that they were different!” Looking at what they did against common opponents is dramatically more valuable than going, “Well despite evidence to the contrary I am going to say they are basically equal on offence, and then because one was better on defence, that guy wins.” Like I said, Nash/Stockton all over again.

Yes to the bold. There is no logical inconsistency there. That’s how comparisons are done, especially for players of different positions or eras.

You seem a bit caught up in Nash/Stockton. Maybe start a thread.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#66 » by TurinTurambar » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:04 pm

Prez wrote:They're two totally different things. The player who ends the possession and the player who has the ball in his hands leading up to the end of a possession is not at all the same thing.


Except when it is, obviously. Hence why guys who are typically labeled "ball hogs" (Jordan, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook LeBron even) all have high usg%'s. Is that just a coincidence?

Prez wrote:My point is just that USG% is a bad way to evaluate ball dominance because it literally isn't calculating ball dominance, and not having good alternatives (due to lack of data) isn't a good justification for using it.


Yeah, like I said, we're just going to have to agree to disagree, move on, and I don't really see any point in engaging in the future either. Thanks for your contribution to the discussion and have a nice day.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#67 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:05 pm

I am not saying it is logically inconsistent, I am saying it is completely vacuous. And the point is that is a clear analogy. Perhaps you would prefer Paul versus Magic? After all, Paul is of course a 9/10 offensive player and a much better defender, and with better longevity!
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#68 » by Prez » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:11 pm

TurinTurambar wrote:Except when it is, obviously. Hence why guys who are typically labeled "ball hogs" (Jordan, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook LeBron even) all have high usg%'s. Is that just a coincidence?

They have high USG %s because they take a crazy number of shots, free throws, etc. Which is what, you know, USG% actually factors in, not ball dominance over the course of a possession.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#69 » by TurinTurambar » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm

Prez wrote:
TurinTurambar wrote:Except when it is, obviously. Hence why guys who are typically labeled "ball hogs" (Jordan, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook LeBron even) all have high usg%'s. Is that just a coincidence?

They have high USG %s because they take a crazy number of shots, free throws, etc. Which is what, you know, USG% actually measures, not ball dominance.


Right, cause the guys shooting the ball never have the ball for a while before they do it. They also draw fouls way quicker than anyone. Turn over the ball too. And they're never, ever isolated and/or asked to create for themselves and others.

Like I said, I'm super good on having this, or any conversation with you, considering how far apart we are on this subject. There's no reason to start heading down Snarky Avenue.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#70 » by Prez » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:22 pm

TurinTurambar wrote:Right, cause the guys shooting the ball never have the ball for a while before they do it. They also draw fouls way quicker than anyone. Turn over the ball too. And they're never, ever isolated.

Like I said, I'm super good on having this, or any conversation with you, considering how far apart we are on this subject. There's no reason to start heading down Snarky Avenue.

No, they often do. The point is, this isn't always the case at all - again, Klay being a great example of this. You can pick any number of examples of players who were both ball dominant *and* high volume shooters/foul drawers (Harden, Westbrook, etc), it doesn't mean they're the same thing or that you can use one to assume the other. We literally have the formula for USG%. It does not factor in time of possession, touches, dribbles, anything of the sort. It isn't a measure of ball dominance.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#71 » by TurinTurambar » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:27 pm

Prez wrote:No, they often do. The point is, this isn't always the case at all - again, Klay being a great example of this. You can pick any number of examples of players who were both ball dominant *and* high volume shooters/foul drawers (Harden, Westbrook, etc), it doesn't mean they're the same thing or that you can use one to assume the other. We literally have the formula for USG%. It does not factor in time of possession, touches, dribbles, anything of the sort. It isn't a measure of ball dominance.


Why do you insist on responding? We're just derailing an otherwise perfectly fine thread so you can repeat a point I don't think many people, if any, agree with.

How about coming up with something a bit more compelling than one random 3-year timespan comparing 2 players to more effectively prove your point that there isn't enough correlation between usg% and "ball dominance?" If you had done that, I may have thought it worth listening to. If you want to do that, maybe start your own thread for it too. Until then, like I keep saying, I'm good, have a nice day.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#72 » by Prez » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:51 pm

TurinTurambar wrote:Why do you insist on responding? We're just derailing an otherwise perfectly fine thread so you can repeat a point I don't think many people, if any, agree with.

Because you keep replying to me and responding to my points? I'm not the one opposed to having a discussion, so feel free to stop replying at any time. And you can say nobody agrees with me - here's the thing: USG% not calculating ball dominance over the course of a possession isn't an opinion, it's a fact.
How about coming up with something a bit more compelling than one random 3-year timespan comparing 2 players to more effectively prove your point that there isn't enough correlation between usg% and "ball dominance?" If you had done that, I may have thought it worth listening to. If you want to do that, maybe start your own thread for it too. Until then, like I keep saying, I'm good, have a nice day.
I can come up with any number of examples to continue proving this point, even though I shouldn't need to considering again, we have the formula for USG% and know it doesn't calculate in possession ball dominance. However it doesn't sound like you're too interested in having a discussion or having your opinions challenged, so like you said, good day.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#73 » by TurinTurambar » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:01 pm

Prez wrote:
TurinTurambar wrote:Why do you insist on responding? We're just derailing an otherwise perfectly fine thread so you can repeat a point I don't think many people, if any, agree with.

Because you keep replying to me and responding to my points? I'm not the one opposed to having a discussion, so feel free to stop replying at any time. And you can say nobody agrees with me - here's the thing: USG% not calculating ball dominance over the course of a possession isn't an opinion, it's a fact.


It isn't a fact, like at all. It's an opinion that seems to completely ignore the well established fact that the guys who score the most, draw a ton of fouls, and turnover the ball lots also tend to be the guys who have the ball in their hand a lot, because, again, it's really hard to do any of those things if you don't have a basketball in your hands.

Prez wrote:can come up with any number of examples to continue proving this point, even though I shouldn't need to considering again, we have the formula for USG% and know it doesn't calculate in possession ball dominance. However it doesn't sound like you're too interested in having a discussion or having your opinions challenged, so like you said, good day.


Yeah, there are a lot of different ways you could have approached this conversation that would've actually been engaging. Nobody forced you to choose the way you did, though.

You're just continuing to repeat yourself again and again and again, so I'll go ahead and let you respond with the last word and leave it alone.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#74 » by SNPA » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:03 pm

mailmp wrote:I am not saying it is logically inconsistent, I am saying it is completely vacuous. And the point is that is a clear analogy. Perhaps you would prefer Paul versus Magic? After all, Paul is of course a 9/10 offensive player and a much better defender, and with better longevity!

No one is using this x/10 thing you keep doing. I’m not clear what value it adds.

I posted accolades and stats showing Bird’s defensive superiority. The response was those things don’t matter. I ask again, since playoff box scores from a handful of series against the same teams is clearly irrelevant, what would matter in the Bird/Magic D comparison? What would the pro-Magic crowd accept as proof?
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#75 » by Prez » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:15 pm

TurinTurambar wrote:It isn't a fact, like at all. It's an opinion that seems to completely ignore the well established fact that the guys who score the most, draw a ton of fouls, and turnover the ball lots also tend to be the guys who have the ball in their hand a lot, because, again, it's really hard to do any of those things if you don't have a basketball in your hands.

It is, unless you can point to me where in the formula for USG% it factors in time of possession, touches, dribbles, etc., aka what we're talking about in terms of ball dominance. Anthony Davis isn't more ball dominant than Chris Paul. Klay isn't more ball dominant than Rondo. Middleton isn't more ball dominant than Jason Kidd. The list goes on and on.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#76 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:15 pm

Stronger evidence that Bird being a better defender actually qualified as a reason for him being a better overall player because some box score offensive stuff looks superficially comparable. Once again, still doing Stockton/Nash.

Also lmao at the suggestion that how they literally performed against the same competition is “completely irrelevant”. I know Bird fans bristle when you bring out playoff numbers, but people do tend to care about performance in the most meaningful games.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#77 » by Odinn21 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:06 am

TurinTurambar wrote:
Prez wrote:Usage says nothing about ball dominance, has nothing to do with time of possession, touches, dribbles, how much you have the ball. It's a measure of possessions that you end (shot attempt, FTA, turnover), not how much you dominate the ball.


Usage absolutely is a good indicator of a player's ball dominance, since it's hard to shoot or draw fouls or turn the ball over if they don't have the ball in their hands.

No, it's not.

If you go by usage% on BBRef, you'd end up believing that Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion were more ball dominant than Steve Nash.
https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2005-Suns-Usage-v-Offensive-Load.png

Usage% only calculates for possession ending ball handling. It absolutely does not say anything about the time spent on the ball.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#78 » by oldschooled » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:25 am

84-88 Bird was 3x consecutive MVP, the best Fantasy player ever 9-cat, maybe the best prime ever 4/5-year prime ever with MJ and Shaq. With that said, this is still very close. Leaning Bird by a hair.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#79 » by TurinTurambar » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:14 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
TurinTurambar wrote:
Prez wrote:Usage says nothing about ball dominance, has nothing to do with time of possession, touches, dribbles, how much you have the ball. It's a measure of possessions that you end (shot attempt, FTA, turnover), not how much you dominate the ball.


Usage absolutely is a good indicator of a player's ball dominance, since it's hard to shoot or draw fouls or turn the ball over if they don't have the ball in their hands.

No, it's not.

If you go by usage% on BBRef, you'd end up believing that Amar'e Stoudemire and Shawn Marion were more ball dominant than Steve Nash.
https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/2005-Suns-Usage-v-Offensive-Load.png

Usage% only calculates for possession ending ball handling. It absolutely does not say anything about the time spent on the ball.


Cool cool cool, fun chat about usg% with you and Prez.

Maybe next post either of you make, you can at least mention the names Magic, Larry, or both. Maybe. Until then, I'm turning my notifications off (super annoying) and going to get some breakfast.
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Re: 1984-88 Larry Bird vs 1986-90 Magic Johnson 

Post#80 » by Odinn21 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:26 pm

So, it's clear that you only use usage% because it suits your opinion, not the other way around. And the only way to say something back is baiting.

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