LukaTheGOAT wrote:Maybe I'll do a stat deep -dive later but I think the thing with Bird and Magic's defense is interesting. Bird's peak defensively is MUCH better than Magic and it isn't even remotely arguable. Sure he wasn't the best rim protector, but he had a knack at stripping the ball away from someone before they could elevate to their apex, which was his best form of rim protection. Bird's motor was higher on D and I believe he was quicker reacting. Bird's weakness was man defense against quick guards but he was truly a spectacular help defender and helped close lanes.
However, I do not think Bird's offensive and defensive peaks overlapped. I think that 86 or 87 Bird is his offensive peak, however, his defensive was only a positive and not all-NBA level like it had been. I think Bird's overall peak though in 86 is probably good enough to edge Magic, especially when you note how much easily he can play off the ball and the fact that I do think his defense was meaningfully better.
However, over the time periods you choose, I would pick Magic because he was more consistent in the PS to me. Bird had a hand injury in 85 that I am sure didn't help, but Bird's scoring really isn't more impressive than Magic during these runs, and Magic was created much more open shots do to better penetration. The drop from Bird on offense in some of these years is concerning enough, that depending on the year, that I would not want him as my #1 guy depending on the year. It is arguable, but I just value PS a bit too much.
That is enough of a difference to me, because Magic was leading GOAT level offenses for the time in the PS, while Boston wasn't near them in this regard (some of this due to Bird's drop-off). It is hard for me to pass up on someone who can consistently guarantee me a GOAT level offense for the time period, while not really hurting me on the defensive end.
This opinion might be controversial, so I'll probably have to back up my opinion a bit later with stats, which is fine by me.
Okay so here comes the numbers (Figures are rounded):
Larry Bird's PS from 84- 88:
84-88: PER-22.79
WS/48- .191
BPM- 7.86
Backpicks BPM-7.01
Boston's PS Offenses (relative rating)-
84: 6.4
85: 3.9
86: 8.3
87: 8.7
88: 4.2
Magic Johnson's PS from 86-90: PER-24.46
WS/48- .229
BPM- 8.23
Backpicks BPM- 7.17
LA's PS Offenses (relative rating)-
86: 8.6
87: 10.7 (PS Record until 17 Cavs)
88: 8.3
89: 9.3
90: 8.4
From the numbers, it is clear it is close between them (I didn't expect it to be this close myself). Magic has a small lead in averages in all these metrics albeit he played 79 games to Bird's 101...
The reason why Magic has the edge in these averages isn't because he was necessarily a better player. But he was more consistent than Bird. Bird had the greater highs, while Magic never necessarily had a poor postseason performance and was pretty steady all the way through. Magic's game didn't really rely on making difficult jumpers that can be highly variable, but rather hitting open jumpers when the defense gave it to him. And all in all, it is pretty much nigh-impossible to take away everything Magic does as a playmaker. Therefore we also see more consistency with the PS offenses as well. The Celtic's defenses were a little better during this period, but the difference between their PS offenses is very large.
Depending on what you like, and how you value Bird's D (which might be underrated a bit by these stats), it can go either way. But I appreciate the security and consistency that Magic gives me. Also I feel confident that Magic can get me a near GOAT level offense with any cast I suppose, and I can surround him with defensive guys. That is hard to beat. With Bird, it is much more vital I feel for him to have another playmaker/secondary playmaker by his side because I do not believe he gets good enough penetration as a driver consistently.
Also take a look at this graphic via his Backpicks write-up:
Magic is creating many more shots (and turning the ball over at about the same rate) and is much more efficient in his role in the PS per the years given. Magic simply seemed to be better at what he did compared to what Bird was tasked to do.
The final thing I will pick out from that Backpicks article is this quote: "All told, when Bird was “healthy” during the playoffs, from 1984-88, he averaged 27.2 points per game on 59 percent true shooting. In the 15 games after the bar fight, and in games he fought through shin splints, he averaged 21.3 points per game on 49 percent true shooting. This could be normal variance or great defensive work, but the inconsistency in his scoring strongly correlated with these injuries." Simply put, Bird would look like 2 totally different players during the PS and that is potentially due to injuries. But I think you can see what I mean when I say that Bird didn't have as much consistency with what he does.