All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team

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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#41 » by HeartBreakKid » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:31 am

dontcalltimeout wrote:For folks interested in this period, thought I would drop this table of scaled APMs for this period, it includes Elgee's AUPM for 96, NPI RAPM for 97, and then prior informed RAPM for later years. Source is this google sheet : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ukBETcjKmDbABCnlfz8LoHeQFmu7nq4pOAqns9KkfBk/edit?usp=sharing

The top 20 1-yr estimates for this period

    8.4 Shaquille O'Neal_1999-00
    7.9 Alonzo Mourning_1998-99
    7.2 Kevin Garnett_1999-00
    7.2 Christian Laettner_1996-97 NPI
    7.1 David Robinson_1998-99
    7.0 Rasheed Wallace_1998-99
    6.9 Michael Jordan_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Tim Hardaway_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Bo Outlaw_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Terry Mills_1996-97 NPI
    6.8 Dikembe Mutombo_1999-00
    6.7 Mookie Blaylock_1997-98
    6.5 Scottie Pippen_1996-97 NPI
    6.5 Eddie Jones_1999-00
    6.4 Gary Payton_1999-00
    6.3 John Stockton_1999-00
    6.0 Grant Hill_1998-99
    6.0 Vlade Divac_1999-00
    5.9 Jeff Hornacek_1996-97 NPI
    5.7 Patrick Ewing_1996-97 NPI
    5.7 Anfernee Hardaway_1995-96 Au


Spoiler:
Image
KG comfortably on the list and no Malone! It will help me sleep at night for not voting for Karl. :lol:
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#42 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:16 pm

dontcalltimeout wrote:Image

The top 20 1-yr estimates for this period

    8.4 Shaquille O'Neal_1999-00
    7.9 Alonzo Mourning_1998-99
    7.2 Kevin Garnett_1999-00
    7.2 Christian Laettner_1996-97 NPI
    7.1 David Robinson_1998-99
    7.0 Rasheed Wallace_1998-99
    6.9 Michael Jordan_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Tim Hardaway_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Bo Outlaw_1996-97 NPI
    6.9 Terry Mills_1996-97 NPI
    6.8 Dikembe Mutombo_1999-00
    6.7 Mookie Blaylock_1997-98
    6.5 Scottie Pippen_1996-97 NPI
    6.5 Eddie Jones_1999-00
    6.4 Gary Payton_1999-00
    6.3 John Stockton_1999-00
    6.0 Grant Hill_1998-99
    6.0 Vlade Divac_1999-00
    5.9 Jeff Hornacek_1996-97 NPI
    5.7 Patrick Ewing_1996-97 NPI
    5.7 Anfernee Hardaway_1995-96 Au


Thank you for this! I think you convinced me.

Centre: 2000 Shaquille O’Neal
Pretty unanimous.

Guard: 1996 Michael Jordan
Again, pretty unanimous.

Guard: 1996 Penny Hardaway.
Positively going up against the impact of 1996 Jordan is quite the accomplishment. Huge offensive impact, and even without Shaq for long stretches led a team more capably than other contenders like Payton, Mookie, and Run-T.

Forward: 1997 Christian Laettner
Leading the league in impact is quite the accomplishment!

Forward: 2000 Rodney Rogers
If Laettner gets to use non-priors for his argument, then Rodney should get to use them for his, when he led over Shaq. :)

Spoiler:
Just kidding. My actual forward votes are for 1999 Duncan, who led a dominant title run, and 1998 — or whichever consensus year is — Malone, who was a clear top player in the league and fell just a bit short of a title.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#43 » by 70sFan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:45 pm

Voting so far:

Guards:

Michael Jordan 11
Penny Hardaway 6
John Stockton 3
Gary Payton 2

Forwards:

Tim Duncan 11
Karl Malone 9
Kevin Garnett 2

Centers:

Shaquille O'Neal 11

I think we have enough votes to move to the second team ;)
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#44 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:40 pm

Grant Hill versus Garnett versus Pippen will be a very interesting debate for forwards. And it is going to be fun to argue against Stockton.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#45 » by Jiminy Glick » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:04 pm

1996 Payton
1996 Jordan
1996 Pippen
2000 Duncan
2000 Shaq
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#46 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:14 pm

To be blunt, I think it is patently ridiculous for old Stockton to be receiving votes over Payton, who was playing at his peak, received MVP votes, and had multiple first-team all-NBA finishes. I thought we had done the Stockton thing in this forum already. You can respect his longevity; that does not mean he is at all a notable name in a peaks project, particularly when we are talking multiple years past his peak.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#47 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:30 pm

mailmp wrote:To be blunt, I think it is patently ridiculous for old Stockton to be receiving votes over Payton, who was playing at his peak, received MVP votes, and had multiple first-team all-NBA finishes. I thought we had done the Stockton thing in this forum already. You can respect his longevity; that does not mean he is at all a notable name in a peaks project, particularly when we are talking multiple years past his peak.


I'm someone who rates peak/prime over longevity and I voted Stockton because he peaked higher than Payton/Penny. So maybe re-evaluate your opinion about the "Stockton thing".
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#48 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:37 pm

Lol, I forgot peak is determined by number of assists.

Imagine Stockton leading a top offence with Malone missing as many games as Shaq. Or maybe Malone was just a scrub; after all, old Stockton was better than any Gary Payton, so man he must have really been dragging that team down. :roll:
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#49 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:02 pm

mailmp wrote:Lol, I forgot peak is determined by number of assists.

Imagine Stockton leading a top offence with Malone missing as many games as Shaq. Or maybe Malone was just a scrub; after all, old Stockton was better than any Gary Payton, so man he must have really been dragging that team down. :roll:


Just some readily available stats from bkref:

Regular season:
Payton 96: 19.6 PER, .554 TS%, 11.5 WS, .174 WS/48, 4.6 BPM, 5.2 VORP
Stockton 97: 22.1 PER, .656 TS%, 13.6 WS, .226 WS/48, 6.6 BPM, 6.3 VORP

Play-offs:
Payton 96: 19 PER, .568 TS%, 3.1 WS, .162 WS/48, 5 BPM, 1.6 VORP
Stockton 97: 22.7 PER, .627 TS%, 3.1 WS, .201 WS/48, 7.8 BPM, 1.8 VORP

As you can see Payton has the same amount of winshares in the play-offs (by playing almost 200 more minutes) and Stockton has the edge literally everywhere else.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#50 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:17 pm

Yes all such comprehensive, high quality metrics. Like I said, I had hoped we had moved past this, but I suppose some people will only ever base their opinions on basketball-reference and will never go deeper than that level of superficiality. Looking forward to your Stockton top fifteen vote in the All-Time Greatest project though!
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#51 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:11 pm

mailmp wrote:Yes all such comprehensive, high quality metrics. Like I said, I had hoped we had moved past this, but I suppose some people will only ever base their opinions on basketball-reference and will never go deeper than that level of superficiality. Looking forward to your Stockton top fifteen vote in the All-Time Greatest project though!


Did you make an account just to be passive aggressive?
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#52 » by Jordan Syndrome » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:11 pm

mailmp wrote:Yes all such comprehensive, high quality metrics. Like I said, I had hoped we had moved past this, but I suppose some people will only ever base their opinions on basketball-reference and will never go deeper than that level of superficiality. Looking forward to your Stockton top fifteen vote in the All-Time Greatest project though!


Whats your argument for Payton over Stockton? I'll do the best I can to listen down here, adjacent to your high horse.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#53 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:25 pm

Was more impactful over higher minutes; had a scoring output which stood up better in the playoffs; prior to his real peak (1998-2000) was already able to pressure the best iteration of the Bulls better than Stockton did against their weaker iterations; was pretty unanimously perceived as a better player by everyone watching in the moment (but if there is an advanced film study marking old Stockton as a better playoff performer than peak Payton, feel free to share)... Again, Stockton is notable as a longevity case, not because selective scoring and gaudy assist totals meant he was actually the top guard of the era after Jordan.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#54 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:34 pm

mailmp wrote:Was more impactful over higher minutes; had a scoring output which stood up better in the playoffs; prior to his real peak (1998-2000) was already able to pressure the best iteration of the Bulls better than Stockton did against their weaker iterations; was pretty unanimously perceived as a better player by everyone watching in the moment (but if there is an advanced film study marking old Stockton as a better playoff performer than peak Payton, feel free to share)... Again, Stockton is notable as a longevity case, not because selective scoring and gaudy assist totals meant he was actually the top guard of the era after Jordan.


If you believe Payton had a better season than Stockton in this time period based on back in the day narratives instead of some statistical evidence that is allowed but don't antagonize people over having different opinions on that.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#55 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:36 pm

BPM and PER is not remotely worthwhile statistical “evidence”, and pretending they are somehow more valuable than the analysis of people who actually watched film of that era (both now and at the time) is like the peak “blogboy” stereotype.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#56 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:33 am

mailmp wrote:BPM and PER is not remotely worthwhile statistical “evidence”, and pretending they are somehow more valuable than the analysis of people who actually watched film of that era (both now and at the time) is like the peak “blogboy” stereotype.

What people are you talking about? I'm not aware of any one doing a cross film analysis of 97 Stockton vs 2000 Payton.

Or are you talking about when you vaguely remember watching them 20+ years ago in your living room? If that's the case, what makes your opinion better than a "blogboy" who did the same thing but also uses statistics?


It's never been an obscene opinion that Stockton > Payton, this was a common (and majority) opinion even before the internet was popular. You do not need BPM to come to that conclusion, and you haven't really explained why you think Payton was better - you said he was more impactful, that's the same thing as saying "he's better just cause". Prove he's more impactful.

And John Stockton was 34 years old, and was the best point guard in the league in 1997. There is no reason to downplay him as some guy who was way past it. He's barely worse than he was in his peak, and wouldn't retire until 6-7 years later.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#57 » by mailmp » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:17 am

Impact data is a thing, lmao, and has been shared in this very thread, and should be tougher for a higher minutes star like Payton to overcome a low-minutes supposed star like Stockton, and nevertheless your preference has been to use borderline useless metrics like PER as an argument. What does that say if you cannot even recognise it?

You do not need to do cross film analysis of 2000 Payton versus 1997 Stockton, you can do — and people did — film analysis of them against each other at the same time. He was “the best point guard in the league” and not recognised as such by the people watching them at the time? Oh if only they had the brilliant insight BPM offered! Sadly, instead they marked Stockton instead as at least a tier worse than Payton from 1997-2000 (not to mention Tim Hardaway and Jason Kidd). Or perhaps we should look to MVP voting, where Payton had 98 points to Stockton’s 12, then 105 to Stockton’s 3, then 431 (third place!) to Stockton’s 5, then 35 to 0, then 180 to 0. You can even see it in the 1996 Olympics, when Payton got 18 minutes a game to Stockton’s 11 and led the team in assists (total and per minute).

Stockton was demonstrably not at his peak, and the problem with him that even at his peak he was never close to a top five player the way Payton was (or even Tim and Kidd were). It was not common, it was not popular, and the narrative to the contrary has only happened as people devoid of any real context have glanced at box scores and made their interpretation based off that alone. In ten years will you also be telling me José Calderon and Ricky Rubio were robbed of all-NBA spots? Are you the people who even now argue Stockton over Nash? Media voters do not literally need to be perfect to have been more generally informed in their time than someone who saw the most rudimentary form of data and formed a conclusion based on that. Teams knew Payton was better, viewers knew Payton was better, the media knew Payton was better, and anyone who watches how they performed in the playoffs knows who was better. Stockton was not matching Payton’s defence (or his minutes), and his selective scoring made him a simpler task for playoff defences to guard. This is all well established, including here on RealGM, and it is pretty disappointing to see all that disregarded because of some pretty box scores.
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Re: All-NBA Teams Project: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#58 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:21 am

mailmp wrote:Impact data is a thing, lmao, and has been shared in this very thread, and should be tougher for a higher minutes star like Payton to overcome a low-minutes supposed star like Stockton, and nevertheless your preference has been to use borderline useless metrics like PER as an argument. What does that say if you cannot even recognise it?

You do not need to do cross film analysis of 2000 Payton versus 1997 Stockton, you can do — and people did — film analysis of them against each other at the same time. He was “the best point guard in the league” and not recognised as such by the people watching them at the time? Oh if only they had the brilliant insight BPM offered! Sadly, instead they marked Stockton instead as at least a tier worse than Payton from 1997-2000 (not to mention Tim Hardaway and Jason Kidd). Or perhaps we should look to MVP voting, where Payton had 98 points to Stockton’s 12, then 105 to Stockton’s 3, then 431 (third place!) to Stockton’s 5, then 35 to 0, then 180 to 0. You can even see it in the 1996 Olympics, when Payton got 18 minutes a game to Stockton’s 11 and led the team in assists (total and per minute).

Stockton was demonstrably not at his peak, and the problem with him that even at his peak he was never close to a top five player the way Payton was (or even Tim and Kidd were). It was not common, it was not popular, and the narrative to the contrary has only happened as people devoid of any real context have glanced at box scores and made their interpretation based off that alone. In ten years will you also be telling me José Calderon and Ricky Rubio were robbed of all-NBA spots? Are you the people who even now argue Stockton over Nash? Media voters do not literally need to be perfect to have been more generally informed in their time than someone who saw the most rudimentary form of data and formed a conclusion based on that. Teams knew Payton was better, viewers knew Payton was better, the media knew Payton was better, and anyone who watches how they performed in the playoffs knows who was better. Stockton was not matching Payton’s defence (or his minutes), and his selective scoring made him a simpler task for playoff defences to guard. This is all well established, including here on RealGM, and it is pretty disappointing to see all that disregarded because of some pretty box scores.


Your argument is literally that you think boxscore stats have a value of absolutely nothing, while prioritizing MVP votes and anecdotal evidence. You can't be serious, surely?

What do you know about what is and isn't established on this forum anyway? You joined 2 days ago.
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Re: All-NBA Teamt: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#59 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:34 am

Best NPI 1999-2000
1 Rodney Rogers, 2 Terry Porter, 3 Bo Outlaw, 4 Shaq
The stat also thinks Derek Fisher is better than Kobe.
The stat thinks Tony Delk is better than Tim Duncan and the stat hates 2000 Karl Malone


What is going on with that stat?
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2014/03/2000-rapm-non-prior-and-prior-informed.html
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Re: All-NBA Teamt: 1996-00 All-NBA First Team 

Post#60 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:57 am

SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:Best NPI 1999-2000
1 Rodney Rogers, 2 Terry Porter, 3 Bo Outlaw, 4 Shaq
The stat also thinks Derek Fisher is better than Kobe.
The stat thinks Tony Delk is better than Tim Duncan and the stat hates 2000 Karl Malone


What is going on with that stat?
http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2014/03/2000-rapm-non-prior-and-prior-informed.html

The stat doesn't "think" that at all.

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