RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #9

[trex_8063]

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. ???

Target stop time will be ~3pm EST on Sunday.

Spoiler:

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[limbo]

Welp, my nominees are all still up, so i'll just paste my voting card here.

1. Kevin Garnett - Still top dog for me. A great case for Top 5 defender of all-time, imo, if we account for the fact that he dominated a more talented/sophisticated era than others candidates (average ORtg from 2008 to 2013 = 107 ORtg; whilst average ORtg from 2000-2004, which was Shaq's defensive peak for example, was 103.6 ORtg). Garnett has a prime that spans across 14 season, from 1999 to 2012 (with change to spare, as 1998 and 2013 to a lesser extent were also solid years). He ranks Top 10 in all-time RS Win Shares, which is another testament that his longevity. There's not many candidates left with so many high level seasons. His peak could also be argued Top 10, imo, and what's even better is, while 2004 clearly being his best season, you could really argue he was a similar level player from 2003 to 2008, with the exception of 2007 where the Wolves were just in complete shambles and it dragged KG down with them (you can put some blame on him as well, i'm fine with that). There's really not many areas you can look at where Garnett doesn't come out at the absolute top of remaining players, outside of team-based accolades, of course... Peak? KG is at the top somewhere. Prime strength/length? KG is at the top somewhere? Defense? KG is at the top. Plus/minus studies? KG is at the top. Advance stats? KG is at the top Versatility? KG is at the top...

2. Hakeem Olajuwon - He's basically what KG is except with more paint-centric impact (offense: better iso post scorer, defense: better rim protector/shot-blocker) and less versatile compared to KG (still versatile compared to other Big man). Also his longevity is worse than Garnett's, not by a whole lot, but enough for it to make a difference when you're talking about similar types of players in the same tier.

3. Dirk Nowitzki - This might seem like a biased pick, and there's definitely room to argue here for guys like Shaq, and maybe Bird and Oscar, but i'm just higher on Dirk's offense (and lower on the other guys defense) here... I think Dirk has a comparable longevity to Shaq, so he doesn't lose much ground for me in that area, and offensively/defensively, he just has less weaknesses than Shaq, which makes me more confident in his ability to perform across a wider array of different landscapes and scenarios. I can concede Shaq peaked higher than Dirk, but i believe that's largely due to a myriad of factors during his peak period that were optimizing Shaq's defensive impact, whilst simultaneously crippling the league in terms of offensive power (which means Shaq's offense was able to be more dominant relative to the average league). I've mentioned in the past that Shaq played in the MJ depression era, chock-full of one-man bands like Iverson's Sixers, McGrady's Magic, Carter's Raptors, Garnett's Wolves, Grant Hill's Pistons, Baron Davis' Hornets, you had Stephon Marbury, Kerry Kittles and Keith Van Horn carrying a Top 10 offense... come on. As i've mentioned in the Garnett write-up above, this was an era where the average ORtg was 103... Dirk wasn't a great defender, i can admit that, but he proved enough times from 2006 to 2011 that if you give him a decent rim-protector like Erick Dampier (which most teams should be able to find in the market...) and one/two other good wing defenders like Josh Howard, you can build a Top 10 defense on a team with Dirk easily. And that's with Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry playing a lot of minutes, both largely unimpressive defenders. Unless you put Dirk at Center (which would be a coaching mistake) or play him behind a washed up Dampier or Brandon Bass at C, he's generally not going to be a liability on the defensive end. In an era where elite offensive teams don't play through the post very often and are going to bomb 35 three's per game on you, Shaq is way more likely to be a liability than Dirk will.

[mailmp]

1. Hakeem Olajuwon
Won a title with the weakest supporting cast of the past forty years, and won a second title against arguably the toughest gauntlet in league history with a bottom five supporting cast of the past forty years. Strong claim to best defender post-Russell, incredible postseason elevator in general (even if some of the offensive numbers are a tad overstated by the competition), and stacked right up there with Jordan throughout his career (particularly on a season-to-season basis).

And look, at this point in the project, he is the best playoff performer on the board, and he has solid enough longevity for that to not be any sort of negative factor. With how much this place tends to reflect Backpicks style thinking, it is kind-of wild to me that people are deviating so strictly from that project when it comes to Hakeem. It really extends “portability” evaluations to the point of near absurdity.

2-3. TBD (in the event of a specific Garnett/Bird tiebreak, I side with Garnett)
Inasmuch as Bird and Garnett are both regular season impact legends who drop to varying degrees in the playoffs, I think Garnett’s defensive value maintained better and his longevity obviously dwarfs Bird’s. I do not see either as matching Hakeem the way Shaq and Magic did. If I need more of an official vote beyond “Garnett over Bird as a tiebreaker”, I guess Oscar will do for now; I think West’s advantage comes from portability alone and see little to indicate Oscar was any lesser a playoff performer at his peak.

[90sAllDecade]

1. Hakeem
2. Bird
3. Garnett (open to thoughts vs Kobe, West and Oscar)

When analyzing players many people look at team success but don’t analyze team support and competition. I personally don’t evaluate individual players on team based metrics or accolades, but if I did I would also go all the way and examine team support, competition and coaching. We should focus on that and I'll add more later.

Hakeem Winning the Most Difficult Championship Path in NBA History:

Watch on YouTube

The Top 10 Teams Who Had The Toughest Path To An NBA Title Ever




1. Houston Rockets (1995)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 72.6%
60-22 Jazz, 59-23 Suns, 62-20 Spurs, and 57-25 Magic

2. Chicago Bulls (1997)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 68.6%
44-38 Bullets, 56-26 Hawks, 61-21 Heat, and 64-18 Jazz

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (2016)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 67.4%
44-38 Pistons, 48-34 Hawks, 56-26 Raptors, and 73-9 Warriors

https://fadeawayworld.net/2020/05/27/top-10-teams-had-the-toughest-path-to-an-nba-title-ever/

He had to go through Stockton and Malone in 5 games, then Barkley and the Suns took them to seven, and finally David Robinson and the Spurs in 6. Later on, he put the cherry on top of the sundae by sweeping a young Shaquille O’Neal and the Orlando Magic.

[Owly]

1. Hakeem
2. Bird
3. Garnett (open to thoughts vs Kobe, West and Oscar)

When analyzing players many people look at team success but don’t analyze team support and competition. I personally don’t evaluate individual players on team based metrics or accolades, but if I did I would also go all the way and examine team support, competition and coaching. We should focus on that and I'll add more later.

Hakeem Winning the Most Difficult Championship Path in NBA History:

Watch on YouTube

The Top 10 Teams Who Had The Toughest Path To An NBA Title Ever




1. Houston Rockets (1995)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 72.6%
60-22 Jazz, 59-23 Suns, 62-20 Spurs, and 57-25 Magic

2. Chicago Bulls (1997)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 68.6%
44-38 Bullets, 56-26 Hawks, 61-21 Heat, and 64-18 Jazz

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (2016)

Opponents combined winning percentage: 67.4%
44-38 Pistons, 48-34 Hawks, 56-26 Raptors, and 73-9 Warriors

https://fadeawayworld.net/2020/05/27/top-10-teams-had-the-toughest-path-to-an-nba-title-ever/

He had to go through Stockton and Malone in 5 games, then Barkley and the Suns took them to seven, and finally David Robinson and the Spurs in 6. Later on, he put the cherry on top of the sundae by sweeping a young Shaquille O’Neal and the Orlando Magic.

Some issues with "Hakeem winning", "he had to go through, "he put" ... the Rockets did that.

That difficult route was the result of Houston's pedestrian regular season. Now you can certainly argue that that's not Hakeem's fault but then ... see the above.

Regarding team support, an Olajuwon advocate in the last thread posted BPM for game 4 of the finals. Looking at the finals Hakeem was 6th among all players and 4th among Rockets in VORP.

Looking into it VORP (from BPM) has Olajuwon narrowly 4th on his own team in the series, 6th overall.
Horry: 0.412195122
Hardaway: 0.363414634
O'Neal: 0.329268293
Elie: 0.3
Drexler: 0.267073171
Olajuwon: 0.264634146

That's only one metric and as single game metrics go I don't know how good it is (and all such metrics will be limited by the data available). But I would say those who hold up '95 in particular and because it is a title year should be aware that other players played well (perhaps better than their reputation), shot well (arguable that every rotation player shot for a better TS%, had a higher Ortg than Olajuwon - if Brown and Chilcutt are rotation level at 326 and 323 minutes then Brown is lower for each). Hakeem of course creates a lot of those shots, is the linchpin on D.

[90sAllDecade]

So glad you brought up team support, I'll focus on that later as well.

[penbeast0]

Well, now I guess I have to be serious about who comes out of the Bird/Hakeem/Garnett melee since it's pretty obvious that Mikan and Curry aren't getting any traction (and the critiques of Curry for not enough time are correct, he shouldn't be on my list yet or probably even ahead of West and Oscar despite how great he was when he played).

Issues:

Bird -- never sold on any defensive impact, the most you could say is that he wasn't a problem on that end because he played team ball, health issues with his back, playoff performances don't step up the way Hakeem's do (but then that could be said about everyone). On the other hand, his shooting is, if anything, underrated because his era didn't make use of the 3 to the extent that analytics say you should and his passing was extraordinary. If you want to see incredible interior passing, the best I've ever seen, watch clips of him playing with Bill Walton. (On the other hand, if you want to watch him look lost and clueless, not just physically but mentally, watch him guarding Adrian Dantley in the playoffs when Dantley was in Detroit. AD made him look as clueless as Barkley out there, but without Chuck's quickness for recovery.)

Hakeem -- offensive abilities are generally overrated because his game was very visually appealing. However, he was never a terribly efficient scorer overall and his post passing was not impressive in the first half of his career. His team was the closest thing to Dwight Howard and the Van Gundy Magic; they were built to give him a lot of space relative to any other center I've ever seen up to this century and he still wasn't impressive in the regular season. He also was a whiny type for at least the 1st half of his career. On the other hand, his playoff scale up was as strong as any ATG player I've ever seen, this is his strongest point for me. I don't buy the narrative of his defense falling off that much; he was still a great or near great defender to the day he retired from what I saw.

Garnett gets overrated by his fans from what I've seen of him. They call him the greatest passing big man ever, he wasn't even close. Good passer but I just don't see him create the way Bird did, or Walton, or Jokic for that matter. He played with bad teams in Minnesota and didn't try to blackmail his way out which I respect; makes up for some of his on the court antics (and Bird was a jerk out there on the court too btw). I also think that vertical game is important but so is the horizontal (rim protecting) game; I have Hakeem (and Duncan) rated higher defensively. Other floor raisers like Hakeem almost always have top 5 defenses built around them. Maybe because it's easier to build around a rim protector. It was 2004 before Minnesota with Garnett even cracked the top 10, they were in the bottom half of the league a long time. He has excellent longevity and health though his longevity is inflated a bit (and per game averages deflated a bit) by coming straight out of HS.

One reason I threw Curry out there is I think this matchup of these three greats is so close. Still listening but for now:

1. Mikan
2. Hakeem
3. Bird

[Hal14]

9) Larry Bird
10) Hakeem Olajuwon
11) Kobe Bryant

First off, there was a really good YouTube series done recently which broke down and analyzed the 8 players who can make a legit case for being the GOAT. Those 8 players are Bird, Magic, Jordan, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, Duncan and LeBron. The only guy from that list who has not yet been picked for this poll is Bird. If you think the guy who made tat video series has any credibility (I do), then Bird should have already got voted in by now.

In case anyone hasn't seen it yet, here is the case for Bird as the GOAT:

Watch on YouTube

Now, looking specifically at Bird vs Hakeem:

-Hakeem has a big edge on D
-Bird has the edge with 3 titles and 5 finals appearances compared to 2 titles and 3 finals appearances for Hakeem
-Bird also has an edge in that head to head in the finals, his Celtics beat Hakeem's Rockets in 6 games and Bird won finals MVP
-Bird also has an edge in that Bird won 3 MVPs, to Hakeem's 1
-Bird also has an edge in that when he won his 3 MVPs, Magic and Kareem were in their prime, Moses was in his prime still in 84 and Bird also beat out Hakeem himself in 86...whereas the 1 MVP that Hakeem won, MJ was retired
-Bird has an edge in that although both guys had to go through quite a bit of strong competition to win their titles, a) Hakeem never beat a team as good as the 84 Lakers and b) when Hakeem won his titles, 1 came during Jordan's retirement and the other came after Jordan's comeback when he was still not yet in basketball shape and only played with the team for a month before the playoffs began so you kind of have to put an asterisk next to those titles. Would the Rockets have still won those titles if Jordan never retired? Maybe, but maybe not..we'll never know. What we do know is that John Starks forgot how to shoot in game 7 of the 94 finals, he went 2/18 from the floor. If he only went 5/18, which still would have been really bad and below his season average FG%, then the Knicks win that game and the championship.
-Hakeem has an edge in that when he won his titles, he had a WAY worse supporting cast than Bird when he won his titles..like, not even close. Even in 81, Bird's supporting cast was better than Hakeem's was in either 94 or 95

Lastly...
-Hakeem's legacy? His legacy is a guy who won 2 titles with a pretty weak supporting cast. And Shaq says he's the best center he ever went against..but then again, all that really means is Hakeem is better than Ewing, Mourning, Mutombo and Robinson. None of those guys are in the conversation for top 10 of all time.
Bird's Legacy? I mean, c'mon, where do I begin? His swagger/confidence/cockiness/trash talk is literally the stuff of legend. There are multiple videos on youtube that are over an hour and a half long with former players/coaches giving their favorite Larry Bird story, their favorite Larry Bird trash talking stories, their stories about how much fear he struck into opponents, stories about his game winners, stories about how impossible it was to win in the Boston Garden during the 80s...not to mention that Bird - along with Magic saved the NBA when its popularity was dwindling and TV ratings were plummeting. Bird and Magic had to save the league when its best player was Kareem - yet somehow Kareem got voted for the no. 3 spot on here and Bird still hasn't made it and we're on no. 9, lol..Oh yeah and how about his impact on the game when it comes to the 3-point shot? The 3-point shot just so happened to be introduced during Bird's rookie year. For the first few years teams were not shooting many 3's at all, it was still a league dominated by inside play. Then Bird happened. He figured out as the 80s went on that a) he was actually really good at shooting 3's and b) hey wait a minute, if we start making lots of these, we might win more because they are worth 3 points instead of 2. He then started shooting more 3's, his scoring average increased, then the NBA introduced the 3-point shooting contest at the all-star weekend - Bird won the first ever contest - and the second - and the third. He probably would have won the fourth but he was injured in 89. After that, the rest is history, as we saw a steady increase in the amount of 3's being taken and an increase in how much 3's were being worked into the strategy of the game. Then there's Bird's impact on the Celtics. The year before his rookie year was their worst season in franchise history - they finished with the 2nd worst record in the NBA. Then in Bird's rookie year their win total improved by 32 games, which is nuts! They won the title just 1 year later and another 2 titles after that with Bird winning finals MVP. Then what happened after Bird retired? He retired in 92 and the Celtics wouldn't make another trip to the NBA finals for another 16 years, yikes!

[penbeast0]

I don't think of trash talk as a positive. If you do, shouldn't you be a big fan of Kevin Garnett and his barking dog antics too?

[Owly]

Other floor raisers like Hakeem almost always have top 5 defenses built around them. Maybe because it's easier to build around a rim protector. It was 2004 before Minnesota with Garnett even cracked the top 10, they were in the bottom half of the league a long time.

Given this seems to be your big ding on Garnett I'd suggest the latter half of his career he was pretty consistently making a big impact on D
https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1244/onoff#tab-team_efficiency
and yeah even before Minny were competent
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-npi-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2002-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2002-npi-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2001-npi-rapm
https://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2014/03/2000-rapm-non-prior-and-prior-informed.html

he was having an impact on D. Not always huge but then looking at the on-off number net (i.e. both ends) pretty much always pretty darned big https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html.


I can't see in what you say where you go Hakeem above Garnett overall. And Garnett had longevity, box composites (even pure rate version of PER, Hakeem's one advantage, go 97-13 Garnett is basically tied 23.5 to Hakeem's 23.59, with Garnett still having slight minutes edge and then the other years are an added bonus), he's got far greater evidence/confidence of impact. And some evidence of greater impact (Hakeem's 94-96 on-off stuff, whilst strong, is not at peak KG level and this covers most of Hakeem's very best years). Hakeem has the playoff productivity.

[90sAllDecade]

When comparing players and looking at team success for thier career, it's important to look at thier team support, coaching and competition. Bird was gifted with some of the best supporting casts in comparision for his career vs Hakeem or even Garnett.

And a Mt. Rushmore coach can be regarded as one of arguably the four GOAT coaches of all time: Jackson, Auerbach, Riley and Pops. Some can argue Larry Brown, but I may add him later.

Team Support Comparison: Bird vs Hakeem

Larry Bird:
13 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x13
Two All Star player: x10

Hakeem:
17 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x7
Two All Star player: x1

So Bird benefited from much better team support vs Hakeem with many years with at least one and ten years with two all star players.

I will note Garnett had the worst supporting cast of the three and that hurt his success in Minnesota, but like Hakeem he succeeded when finally having talent around him. So he definitely deserves that to his credit.

But let's compare those two. What happens when they both didn't have an all star player around them or a Mt. Rushmore coach?

Edited Repost:

This is an outstanding post and speaks to the elephant in the room, the guys in this GOAT list needed team support to win, even Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, Garnett, everyone.

Some were fortunate to have played with an all star or Mt. Rushmore coach thier entire career (Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan with Pops and even Wilt with his quota all stars back then.)

Mt. Rushmore coach being the four greatest coaches of all time imo, Auerbach, Jackson, Riley and Pops in no particular order. Some would argue Larry Brown as well, but I'll leave him off for now and may add him later.

But if you really want to separate the wheat from the chaff, see how those guys did without that team support, in adverse situations.

This comparison shows how the GOAT players fared without an all star or Mt. Rushmore coach, it is incomplete as it only happened to a few players certain years.

Also for comparison here is Jordan, Kareem, Shaq and Kobe thrown in. Aside from perhaps LeBron, who still had Irving and Love who missed the AS game, none had the success Hakeem had winning a championship without a second all star player.

All Time Players: Years with No All Star Comparison

***Larry Bird never had a single year in his career without a second all star player on his team

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/all_star.html

Jordan (no Pippen, Grant or Phil Jackson):

84-85 (Rookie):
38-44, -0.50 SRS, 11th Ortg, 20th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

85-86 (Injured for season, healthy for Playoffs):
30-52, -3.12 SRS, 8th Ortg, 23rd Drtg, Lost 1st Round

86-87 (Coaching change):
40-42, 1.27 SRS, 12th Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

Kareem (no Oscar, Magic or Pat Riley):

75-76:
40-42, 0.17 SRS, 7th Ortg, 13th Drtg, No playoff appearance

76-77 (Coaching change):
53-29, 2.65 SRS, 5th Ortg, 10th Drtg, Lost WCF (1st round byes back then)

77-78:
45-37, 2.59 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

79-80:
47-35, 2.95 SRS, 5th Ortg, 10th Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

Shaq (No All star player, Phil Jackson or Pat Riley):

92-93 (Rookie):
41-41, 1.35 SRS, 13th Ortg, 12th Drtg, No playoff appearance

93-94 (Coaching change):
50-32, 3.68 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 15th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

Kevin Garnett (No All star players):

95-96 (Rookie, High School player):
26-56, -5.14 SRS, 25 Ortg, 20th Drtg, No playoff appearance

97-98 (Coaching change):
45-37, 0.17 SRS, 7th Ortg, 23rd Drtg, Lost 1st Round

98-99 (Lockout year, only 50 games played):
25-25. -0.17 SRS, 17th Ortg, 11 Drtg, Lost 1st Round

99-00:
50-32, 2.67 SRS, 8th Ortg, 12th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

00-01:
47-35, 1.81 SRS, 11th Ortg, 16th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

02-03:
51-31, 2.46 SRS, 5th Ortg, 16th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

04-05:
44-38, 1.73 SRS, 6th Ortg, 15th Drtg, No playoff appearance

05-06 (coaching change):
33-49,-1.75 SRS, 28th Ortg, 10th Drtg, No playoff appearance

06-07:
32-50, -3.16 SRS, 25th Ortg, 21st Drtg, No playoff appearance

Kobe Bryant (No All star player or Phil Jackson):

04-05 (Young non all-star Lamar Odom, year 5 on team)
34-48, -2.33 SRS, 7th Ortg, 30th Drtg, No playoff appearance


Kobe with no Shaq or All Star player but adding Phil Jackson

05-06 (18 year old, High School rookie Andrew Bynum joins team)
45-37, 2.52 SRS, 8th Ortg, 15th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

06-07
42-40, 0.24 SRS, 7th Ortg, 24th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

07-08 (Added Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher comes back)
57-25, 7.34 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 5th Drtg, Lost Finals

LeBron James (no All star player):

03-04 (Rookie, High School player):
35-47, -3.07 SRS, 22nd Ortg, 19th Drtg, No playoff apperance

05-06 (Coaching change):
50-32, 2.17 SRS, 9th Ortg, 14th Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

06-07:
50-32, 3.33 SRS, 18th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost in Finals

07-08:
45-37, -0.53 SRS, 20th Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost in 2nd Round

09-10:
61-21, 6.17 SRS, 6th Ortg, 7th Drtg, Lost in 2nd Round

15-16:
57-25, 5.45 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 10th Drtg, Won Championship (*Big note: He had Irving and Love for the playoff run. Irving had injuries and missed the All Star game)

18-19:
37-45, -1.33 SRS, 24th Ortg, 12th Drtg, No Playoff Appearance (LeBron also had injuries playing 55 games)

Hakeem Olajuwon (No All star player):

87-88:
46-36, .082 SRS, 13th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

88-89 (Coaching change, Don Chaney):
45-37, 0.22 SRS, 18th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

89-90:
41-41, 1.71 SRS, 21 Ortg, 1st Drtg, Lost 1st Round

92-93 (Coaching change, Rudy T):
55-27, 3.57 SRS, 6th Ortg, 3rd Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

93-94:
58-24, 4.19 SRS, 15th Ortg, 2nd Drtg, Won NBA Championship

[penbeast0]

The On/Off RAPM family of stats seems to drive the Garnett narrative pretty heavily and I admit I am behind the curve statistically in understanding and using it. You are usually spot on in your critiques of my heuristic biases, Owly, and maybe I am dead wrong here, but trying to do the best I can with an eye test, mental balancing, and statistics approach from what I've seen over a lot of years sitting on my lazy butt watching other people do amazing things.

[SHAQ32]

When comparing players and looking at team success for thier career, it's important to look at thier team support, coaching and competition. Bird was gifted with some of the best supporting casts in comparision for his career vs Hakeem or even Garnett.

And a Mt. Rushmore coach can be regarded as one of arguably the for GOAT coaches of all time: Jackson, Auerbach, Riley and Pops. Some can argue Larry Brown, but I may add him later.

Team Support Comparison: Bird vs Hakeem

Larry Bird:
13 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x13
Two All Star player: x10

Hakeem:
17 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x7
Two All Star player: x1

Hakeem had clutch role players that consistently stepped up in big moments. Mario Elie, Kenny Smith, Vernon Maxwell, Robert Horry, Sam Cassell. For example, those guys were key difference-makers in the sweep of the Magic in 95. Well, that and Nick Anderson choking, Dennis Scott disappearing. But anyway that's something the relatively simplistic "x years with all-star" argument fails to include. Otis Thorpe was one of the most consistent PF's of the era and only made 1 asg.

[Hal14]

I don't think of trash talk as a positive. If you do, shouldn't you be a big fan of Kevin Garnett and his barking dog antics too?

There's a difference between a player simply "talking trash" and a player being considered by many to be the greatest trash talker of all time (Bird). When you're that good at trash talking and you back it up...now, you're talking about truly getting inside the head of your opponent and throwing them off their game to the point where your team gains a significant advantage.

Don't take my word for it - this is what the guys he played against said:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[90sAllDecade]

When comparing players and looking at team success for thier career, it's important to look at thier team support, coaching and competition. Bird was gifted with some of the best supporting casts in comparision for his career vs Hakeem or even Garnett.

And a Mt. Rushmore coach can be regarded as one of arguably the for GOAT coaches of all time: Jackson, Auerbach, Riley and Pops. Some can argue Larry Brown, but I may add him later.

Team Support Comparison: Bird vs Hakeem

Larry Bird:
13 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x13
Two All Star player: x10

Hakeem:
17 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x7
Two All Star player: x1

Hakeem had clutch role players that consistently stepped up in big moments. Mario Elie, Kenny Smith, Vernon Maxwell, Robert Horry, Sam Cassell. For example, those guys were key difference-makers in the sweep of the Magic in 95. Well, that and Nick Anderson choking, Dennis Scott disappearing. But anyway that's something the relatively simplistic "x years with all-star" argument fails to include. Otis Thorpe was one of the most consistent PF's of the era and only made 1 asg.

But in comparison to other all time greats is Thorpe honestly better than say Bird's support like prime or peak McHale, Parish etc?

I agree to a point, but relative to competition they were found good enough to be an all star, which of course is debatable. But the talent was there. Compare the casts for thier careers against each other relative to competition for all star spots in the league.

[limbo]

Hakeem did have trash teams from 1987 to 1993,though. I mean, the 1993 squad was alright, i guess, but got matched up against a more talented/deeper Seattle team in the Playoffs and pushed them to 7 games with Hakeem being the best player in that series and having a good Game 7.

Bird never had a trash team in his prime, while Hakeem had 6 trash teams back-to-back... That's a lot of years of his prime wasted. It sucks even more because Hakeem had some massive performances in the Playoffs during those years but it didn't matter. Really the only bad series Hakeem had was in 1990 against the Lakers, and even then he was easily the best defender in that series, his just didn't show up on offense. Outside of that Hakeem was really doing the most with the least about as well as any player up to that point in NBA history.

[Dutchball97]

1. Larry Bird - I'm voting for him for the third time now and feelings on him are still the same. He has one of the best primes ever and I think his longevity is somewhat underrated or overcriticized.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon - Very dominant for two years and outside of that he also has a lot of other great seasons. Just an all around elite career. What hurts his case the most is that he won the two rings when Jordan was playing baseball. Outside of those two amazing years there are plenty of great post-season runs but also some questionable exits. He's the best defender of the modern era imo and a gifted player on the offensive end as well.

3. Kobe Bryant - I'm considering multiple options here. I think Kobe, KG, Dr J, West and Oscar should all get serious consideration here. KD and Curry are also options imo. For now I'm going with Kobe though. Sure he played on an All-Time great Lakers team for his first 3 rings but is his performance in the threepeat less valuable than Magic's 80 and 82 titles? He then led bad teams to decent results after Shaq left and performed very well when he was the leading guy on a good team.

[mailmp]

Other floor raisers like Hakeem almost always have top 5 defenses built around them. Maybe because it's easier to build around a rim protector. It was 2004 before Minnesota with Garnett even cracked the top 10, they were in the bottom half of the league a long time.

Given this seems to be your big ding on Garnett I'd suggest the latter half of his career he was pretty consistently making a big impact on D
https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/1244/onoff#tab-team_efficiency
and yeah even before Minny were competent
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2003-npi-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2002-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2002-npi-rapm
https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2001-npi-rapm
https://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2014/03/2000-rapm-non-prior-and-prior-informed.html

he was having an impact on D. Not always huge but then looking at the on-off number net (i.e. both ends) pretty much always pretty darned big https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/garneke01.html.


I can't see in what you say where you go Hakeem above Garnett overall. And Garnett had longevity, box composites (even pure rate version of PER, Hakeem's one advantage, go 97-13 Garnett is basically tied 23.5 to Hakeem's 23.59, with Garnett still having slight minutes edge and then the other years are an added bonus), he's got far greater evidence/confidence of impact. And some evidence of greater impact (Hakeem's 94-96 on-off stuff, whilst strong, is not at peak KG level and this covers most of Hakeem's very best years). Hakeem has the playoff productivity.

So how highly should we expect to see you putting Dikembe, Paul, and Draymond? Are Erving’s on/off numbers going to keep him out of your top twenty? I am a fan of RAPM, but it is hardly everything, and that is why holistic analyses only ever use it as a supplement (e.g. Backpicks).

[Owly]

When comparing players and looking at team success for thier career, it's important to look at thier team support, coaching and competition. Bird was gifted with some of the best supporting casts in comparision for his career vs Hakeem or even Garnett.

And a Mt. Rushmore coach can be regarded as one of arguably the for GOAT coaches of all time: Jackson, Auerbach, Riley and Pops. Some can argue Larry Brown, but I may add him later.

Team Support Comparison: Bird vs Hakeem

Larry Bird:
13 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x13
Two All Star player: x10

Hakeem:
17 years
Years with 1 All Star Player: x7
Two All Star player: x1

So Bird benefited from much better team support vs Hakeem with many years with at least one and ten years with two all star players.

I will note Garnett had the worst supporting cast of the three and that hurt his success in Minnesota, but like Hakeem he succeeded when finally having talent around him. So he definitely deserves that to his credit.

But let's compare those two. What happens when they both didn't have an all star player around them or a Mt. Rushmore coach?

This is an outstanding post and speaks to the elephant in the room, the guys in this GOAT list needed team support to win, even Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, Garnett, everyone.

Some were fortunate to have played with an all star or Mt. Rushmore coach thier entire career (Russell, Magic, Bird, Duncan with Pops and even Wilt with his quota all stars back then.)

Mt. Rushmore coach being the four greatest coaches of all time imo, Auerbach, Jackson, Riley and Pops in no particular order. Some would argue Larry Brown as well, but I'll leave him off for now and may add him later.

But if you really want to separate the wheat from the chaff, see how those guys did without that team support, in adverse situations.

This comparison shows how the GOAT players fared without an all star or Mt. Rushmore coach, it is incomplete as it only happened to a few players certain years.

Also for comparison here is Jordan, Kareem, Shaq and Kobe thrown in. Aside from perhaps LeBron, who still had Irving and Love who missed the AS game, none had the success Hakeem had without a second all star player.

All Time Players: Years with No All Star Comparison

***Larry Bird never had a single year in his career without a second all star player on his team

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/all_star.html

Jordan (no Pippen, Grant or Phil Jackson):

84-85 (Rookie):
38-44, -0.50 SRS, 11th Ortg, 20th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

85-86 (Injured for season, healthy for Playoffs):
30-52, -3.12 SRS, 8th Ortg, 23rd Drtg, Lost 1st Round

86-87 (Coaching change):
40-42, 1.27 SRS, 12th Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

Kareem (no Oscar, Magic or Pat Riley):

75-76:
40-42, 0.17 SRS, 7th Ortg, 13th Drtg, No playoff appearance

76-77 (Coaching change):
53-29, 2.65 SRS, 5th Ortg, 10th Drtg, Lost WCF (1st round byes back then)

77-78:
45-37, 2.59 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

79-80:
47-35, 2.95 SRS, 5th Ortg, 10th Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

Shaq (No All star player, Phil Jackson or Pat Riley):

92-93 (Rookie):
41-41, 1.35 SRS, 13th Ortg, 12th Drtg, No playoff appearance

93-94 (Coaching change):
50-32, 3.68 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 15th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

Kevin Garnett (No All star players):

95-96 (Rookie, High School player):
26-56, -5.14 SRS, 25 Ortg, 20th Drtg, No playoff appearance

97-98 (Coaching change):
45-37, 0.17 SRS, 7th Ortg, 23rd Drtg, Lost 1st Round

98-99 (Lockout year, only 50 games played):
25-25. -0.17 SRS, 17th Ortg, 11 Drtg, Lost 1st Round

99-00:
50-32, 2.67 SRS, 8th Ortg, 12th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

00-01:
47-35, 1.81 SRS, 11th Ortg, 16th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

02-03:
51-31, 2.46 SRS, 5th Ortg, 16th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

04-05:
44-38, 1.73 SRS, 6th Ortg, 15th Drtg, No playoff appearance

05-06 (coaching change):
33-49,-1.75 SRS, 28th Ortg, 10th Drtg, No playoff appearance

06-07:
32-50, -3.16 SRS, 25th Ortg, 21st Drtg, No playoff appearance

Kobe Bryant (No All star player or Phil Jackson):

04-05 (Young non all-star Lamar Odom, year 5 on team)
34-48, -2.33 SRS, 7th Ortg, 30th Drtg, No playoff appearance


Kobe with no Shaq or All Star player but adding Phil Jackson

05-06 (18 year old, High School rookie Andrew Bynum joins team)
45-37, 2.52 SRS, 8th Ortg, 15th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

06-07
42-40, 0.24 SRS, 7th Ortg, 24th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

07-08 (Added Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher comes back)
57-25, 7.34 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 5th Drtg, Lost Finals

LeBron James (no All star player):

03-04 (Rookie, High School player):
35-47, -3.07 SRS, 22nd Ortg, 19th Drtg, No playoff apperance

05-06 (Coaching change):
50-32, 2.17 SRS, 9th Ortg, 14th Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

06-07:
50-32, 3.33 SRS, 18th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost in Finals

07-08:
45-37, -0.53 SRS, 20th Ortg, 11th Drtg, Lost in 2nd Round

09-10:
61-21, 6.17 SRS, 6th Ortg, 7th Drtg, Lost in 2nd Round

15-16:
57-25, 5.45 SRS, 3rd Ortg, 10th Drtg, Won Championship (*Big note: He had Irving and Love for the playoff run. Irving had injuries and missed the All Star game)

18-19:
37-45, -1.33 SRS, 24th Ortg, 12th Drtg, No Playoff Appearance (LeBron also had injuries playing 55 games)

Hakeem Olajuwon (No All star player):

87-88:
46-36, .082 SRS, 13th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

88-89 (Coaching change, Don Chaney):
45-37, 0.22 SRS, 18th Ortg, 4th Drtg, Lost 1st Round

89-90:
41-41, 1.71 SRS, 21 Ortg, 1st Drtg, Lost 1st Round

92-93 (Coaching change, Rudy T):
55-27, 3.57 SRS, 6th Ortg, 3rd Drtg, Lost 2nd Round

93-94:
58-24, 4.19 SRS, 15th Ortg, 2nd Drtg, Won NBA Championship

The caliber of NBA player isn't binary "All-Star", "Not All-Star" though. This loses so much nuance even assuming that "all-star" is a solid specific level (which it isn't - even ignoring the old days in the 60s and before where each team was basically bound to get two all-stars - you'll get bad picks [BJ Armstrong '94, Duckworth '91], legacy/fame picks [Bryant '14-'16, Jabbar '88-89], you get uneven conferences [Joe Johnson's All Star count changes dramatically playing in the West], positional imbalance, changes over time of the proportion of the league that makes an all-star game and thus percentile required to be at to get it etc - oh and stuff that needs a "big note").

To put it in the starkest terms, I'd take a roster of 30-40th best players in the league over 24th, 440-449. But the tool is blind to the difference between most players.

To put '94 supporting casts into context Rick Barry's Pro Basketball Bible Grades from after that season (D=1, C=2, B=3, A=4, AA=5, AAA=6 "+" or "-" add or subtract 1/3.

Based on the "Overall" grade, say, Robinson has the next best teammate (AA or 5, Rodman) but Hakeem has the next five (Cassell, Maxwell, Horry, Thorpe all A [or 4], then Elie an A- [3.667].
Similarly taking an unweighted average of their individual skill grades (clunkier, assumes all skills of equal importance) Houston has the top 4 cast members, 5 of the top 6, 6 of the top 8 and 7 of the top 10.

Robinson has clearly got a worse supporting cast, but a bad, imprecise tool like "how many all-stars" can't perceive this.

[SHAQ32]

How much better was David Robinson's supporting casts? Because he lifted his teams to a few 55+ win seasons.