RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #15 (Dirk Nowitzki)

[trex_8063]

1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. ????

Target stop time will be around 4pm EST on Friday.

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[trex_8063]

(Mostly copied from last thread)

Considering who is already off the table and that my criteria which is largely centered around longevity of quality [and also noting I tend to value the rs more than many], this spot comes down to the Mailman and Dirk. I’m hedging at present toward Malone [and I’ll try to explain why]....

Malone is often passed over for other candidates on the basis of his decline in the playoffs. It’s a fair criticism, particularly against someone like Dirk, who was fairly playoff resilient [especially late in his prime]. However, I sometimes feel as though that decline is overstated.
That is, I acknowledge his decline (and even that it was proportionally larger than that seen from most superstars), but I also think he was still a pretty darn good player in the playoffs, and that the proportion of his decline only appears so large because of just how awesome and dominant he typically was during the regular season.

His shooting efficiency typically took a dip in the playoffs [occasionally a pretty substantial one]. On the other hand, his turnover economy in the playoffs during his prime was often BETTER than what it had been in the regular season.

By comparison, Dirk’s shooting efficiency basically didn’t decline at all [and his rebounding improved] in the playoffs…...but his turnover economy worsened.

I’ll demonstrate this by showing their production and efficiency numbers during their respective primes (‘89-’01 for Malone, ‘01-’14 for Dirk).
NOTE: While that 14-year span for Dirk is perhaps a little too extended, I went with that because it makes his prime basically the same length as Malone’s. Yes, it’s one more season than the span I’ve stipulated for Malone; but despite that (and despite the fact that the one hold-out year in Dirk’s prime [‘12] had 16 more games than the hold-out year in Malone’s prime [‘99]), Dirk still only played 31 additional games in this period than Malone did from ‘89-’01. This is because while Dirk missed 73 games in that span, Malone was of course a total iron-man, missing just 6 games in 13 years. And because Malone was also averaging marginally higher minutes, he still actually played 266 more minutes in his 13-year prime than Dirk did in this 14-year “prime” I’ve listed.
One could go with just ‘01-’12 for Dirk’s prime, and his numbers would look marginally better in doing so; but then one would also be forced to acknowledge that Dirk’s prime was substantially shorter [in terms of games/minutes played], too. Sort of six in one hand, half-dozen in the other, imo.

Anyway, let’s look at the comparison, starting with the regular season….

K.Malone (rs, ‘89-’01):
36.7 pts/100 poss @ 59.1% TS (+6.0% rTS), 14.2 reb/100 (16.4% TREB% (24.0% DREB%)), 5.0 ast/100, 4.1 tov/100, in 37.9 mpg. 8.69% mTOV%.
Avg Jazz offense: +3.64 rORTG

D.Nowitzki (rs, ‘01-’14):
33.7 pts/100 poss @ 58.5% TS (+5.3% rTS), 12.0 reb/100 (13.1% TREB% (22.4% DREB%)), 3.9 ast/100, 2.7 tov/100, in 36.6 mpg. 6.55% mTOV%
Avg Maverick offense: +3.98 rORTG

^^^^In the rs, Malone was scoring at higher volume on marginally better shooting efficiency, generating more assists, and rebounding at a higher rate. I also think he was [on average] the better defensive player between the two (though I’ll add more on that below in some scouting observations; this is meant mostly to be the statistical comparison).
The only things he is clearly inferior to Dirk in on the statistical comp is in his turnover economy. Dirk is more or less on the GOAT-tier of that among big-men. Is his better turnover economy enough to off-set being a lesser scorer, rebounder, and defender during the rs? (I realize it’s not quite that easy or “boiled down” of a question, as I do think Dirk generates a little more gravity, and he certainly is better able to spread the floor. Though I sort of feel Malone is a marginally better screen-setter, fwiw. But again I want to get to some of this later in scouting.) From a purely statistical point, no, I don’t think the better turnover economy is quite enough to off-set it.

In the playoffs, I mentioned Malone’s shooting efficiency falls off precipitously, but that his turnover economy actually improved in his prime. Here are his playoff numbers….

Karl Malone (ps, ‘89-’01):
35.3 pts/100 poss @ 53.2% TS (+0.1% rTS), 14.8 reb/100 (16.3% TREB% (24.2% DREB%)), 4.4 ast/100, 3.8 tov/100, in 41.4 mpg. 7.92% mTOV%.

Before I show Dirk’s, this is what I’m talking about: ^^^those are still REALLY substantial numbers (and note the the mild-moderately improved turnover economy). And this was while facing some pretty tough defenses much of the way. The average rDRTG he faced in the playoffs in his prime (for ease, weighted per series [not per game played]) was -2.39.

By comparison, the average one faced by Dirk in his prime was -2.18. Here is how Dirk did against those defenses:

D.Nowitzki (ps, ‘01-’14):
33.0 pts/100 poss @ 57.9% TS (+4.7% rTS), 13.1 reb/100 (14.2% TREB% (24.6% DREB%)), 3.3 ast/100, 3.0 tov/100, in 41.1 mpg. 7.51% mTOV%

Dirk’s shooting efficiency holds steady (and his rebounding goes up a little), but his turnover economy takes a somewhat notable dive…...to the point that Malone’s turnover economy in the playoffs is only slightly worse. This is relevant given turnover economy was really the only advantage Dirk had on him in the rs figures.
Overall, Malone’s playoff numbers are only a little worse than Dirk’s [despite facing marginally better defenses on average, and despite his playoff reputation].

I at least hope that’s some food for thought.

In terms of impact, Dirk’s average RAPM over that span of seasons is +4.48.
Malone’s avg RAPM [which includes the playoffs] from ‘97-’01 is +4.11. His avg rs-only pseudo-APM from ‘94-’96 is +5.06.


As to what I see when I watch these guys…..
There’s no question Dirk was the better and more resilient isolation scorer, at least by later in his prime. That Dirk-patented one-legged fader…..impossible to stop, you just had to hope he’d miss. This at times created a little more gravitational effect, and because of his superior range, he spreads the floor more, too.
Because he operated so much in the mid-range, it tended to aid in the lower turnover economy I’ve referred to as well (though probably also contributed to his lower OREB%).
And he’s probably a marginally underrated passer.

Malone, however, is a clearly better passer (and perhaps not close).
A common play run with some of the late-90s Jazz squads was the guard [Stockton or Hornacek] with ball on the wing would get the ball to Malone in the mid-post region, with everyone else cleared out toward the perimeter; then that guard would trot laterally toward the top of the key before [on the far side of the key] cutting toward the basket off the back-pick being set by the OTHER guard…...and if the defense wasn’t perfect, Malone would hit that cutter for a lay-up. By the latter half of his prime he was excellent [OUTSTANDING, even] at hitting cutters in general (see video below; actual passes start at 0:14 mark), and also fantastic passing out of double-teams.

Watch on YouTube

As much as Garnett’s passing had been lauded in prior threads, I don’t think he was any better [or even as good???] as late-prime Karl Malone.
As I believe 70sFan had alluded to, I think that’s a big part of why/how the Jazz of the late 90s managed some fantastically elite rORTG’s (relative to their opponents) in the post-season [will try to post later with just how good these post-season offenses were], despite Malone's lower than standard shooting efficiency in the playoffs.

As to scoring, he didn’t have Dirk’s unstoppable go-to move, but he was able to score in a variety of ways: rim-running, face-up shooting, occasional “simple” forays at the rim from a face-up or a post-up [often looking to just draw contact] where he finished pretty well (from ‘97-’01 Malone was finishing >66% at the rim [vs 64.1% for prime Dirk]). And of course there was transition scoring, which Malone was probably the best big-man at that until Giannis came along.
And while Malone didn’t quite have Dirk’s mid-range prowess, he was a very capable mid-range shooter by at least ‘94 (off the pnp, or facing up): his % from 16-23’ in ‘97-’01 is actually almost spot-on with prime Dirk, believe it or not, at >47%. His % from 10-16’ lags about 7-8% behind Dirk, though.

And Malone had a higher FTAr (bearing in mind he played in an era of worse spacing, too). Also a larger presence on the offensive glass, as alluded to above.
Both are good screen-setters, imo; gun to my head, I maybe give Malone the edge.


Defensively, BOTH players are box-out guys (as opposed to purely hunting [and potentially cannibalizing] rebounds)......but Malone’s defensive rebounding rates are a little better (as noted above), at least in the regular season.

Dirk’s positioning on pnr defense [at least by the latter half of his prime] is excellent, and consequently he hedges REALLY well; by late in his prime he was pretty slow on the recover part of “hedge and recover”, though.

He’s got good length, so his post defense wasn’t bad, though he wasn’t really what I’d call a “banger”.
Malone, otoh, could bang in the post. I mean….



No one is pushing that around. He could bang with the bigger PF’s, or occasionally defend centers in the post.

I’d rate his lateral mobility as marginally better than Dirk’s. I think because he’s so huge [see photo] it would give the impression of “clunky” movement…..but he was quite mobile.

He also had very quick and active hands, which is how he came to be 12th all-time in steals (and 2nd to only Hakeem among PF/C’s). I mean, he actually still has more steals than Lebron James at this point, if you can believe that. He’s 16th all-time in career playoff steals, btw (1st among PF/C’s).
And he was the master at “pulling the chair” in the post.

I don’t want to give the impression that he was consistently an All-D level defensive PF, but he was pretty good thru much of his career. All things considered, I think he was the better defensive player [compared to Dirk].

And given his effective longevity [due to lack of injury-missed time] is slightly superior…..

1st vote: Karl Malone
2nd vote: Dirk Nowitzki
3rd vote: David Robinson

[eminence]

Dirk vs K. Malone is the big debate for me here. I'm not impressed enough with DrJs Sixers +/- numbers, Robinsons performance against Malone, and Moses role/general consistency. Is there anyone else y'all think is ready for contention against Dirk/Malone? CP3 feels just short, Curry/Wade/Harden don't have the longevity quite yet for me. Barkley I have a step behind the other two. Maybe I should give Nash a bit more thought?

[70sFan]

Dirk vs K. Malone is the big debate for me here. I'm not impressed enough with DrJs Sixers +/- numbers, Robinsons performance against Malone, and Moses role/general consistency. Is there anyone else y'all think is ready for contention against Dirk/Malone? CP3 feels just short, Curry/Wade/Harden don't have the longevity quite yet for me. Barkley I have a step behind the other two. Maybe I should give Nash a bit more thought?

I don't think you missed anyone else. I do think that Julius has very strong argument against them though, as he's the only one with comparable longevity (at least to Dirk) and comparable prime/peak. He also has more team success than them if you count that heavily.

Some people might enjoy KD argument, but I don't see it either. Nash is in the next tier to me, behind Dirk/Malone/Julius/Admiral.

[penbeast0]

Mikan is clearly the strongest candidate here in terms of making it likely for your team to win multiple titles. He had an 8 year prime where he was probably the best player alive for all 8 and certainly for a good half of it (plus a short, ugly comeback that we try to ignore, like MJ's Washington years). His league was relatively weak compared to any other eras, even the 70s, and it was segregated (though he seemed better than the best of the Globies or Rens when they played against each other from what little anecdotal evidence I've read) so depending on the degree to which you discount it, that is certainly a factor. His playoff performances were strong. He had no out of prime years to speak of to pad his stats, and in fact the stats we have are problematic but for me, an 8 year prime is about where I quit worrying about short careers and I count prime years a lot more heavily than post or pre-prime years where the player is below All-Star level. I don't say every should vote for him, I do think everyone should at least consider his candidacy; when you signed up for this project you agreed not to say, "I don't look at players who played before . . . . since I haven't seen enough of them to judge." I never saw Mikan either. But by the best evidence we have, he's by far the most dominant guy left.

The next two spots are a lot closer and a lot more problematic. I have Karl Malone over Dirk in that debate; the lesser playoffs are an issue but his level of play was so strong and his incredible ironman act and motor to me are a major leadership plus. I have him over Moses both for his longer prime and better passing; Moses was bigger and even more physical but the passing is a problem. In terms of shorter careers, I have David Robinson, another player whose main knock (other than shorter career) is his playoff resume, and Steph Curry. Julius Erving is also definitely in the mix here for me. If I want to win a title with this guy as my best player, Curry or ABA Erving are my first choices and Julius played a longer time though his first years in Philly where he was trying to fit in rather than take over as the primary are an issue. Since contributing to a team's chance of being the best is my focus, I will go:

1. George Mikan
2. Julius Erving
3. Stephen Curry

Again, written in sand rather than set in stone.

[Cavsfansince84]

Just wanna say I am not high on Moses getting talk in this range. He shot a lot, not that efficiently, was something of a black hole and not great defensively for his position. He didn't really lead teams much of anywhere either outside of his one year with the Sixer superteam and the 81 playoffs which only won 41 games in the rs. Two of his 3 mvps came on sub 50 win teams. I think he's an atg and top 25 but I just can't buy him getting talk ahead of most of guys usually thought of as top 20 now. Advanced metrics don't think he belongs in discussion with them either and its not like he played that long ago. By vorp which only goes back to 1974 and favors a guy like Moses who played for over 20 years he only ranks 40th. Far behind guys like Pau, Allen, Payton, Carter.

[Gibson22]

1) Mikan
2) Malone
3) Erving

(then kd moses drob dirk steph). Will explain later

[Hal14]

15) Moses Malone
16) Julius Erving
17) Elgin Baylor

As far as Moses over Dr. J, I posted in the other thread, but if Dr. J put up those numbers and had all of those accolades in the NBA, he'd have a stronger case. But his fist few years he did it in a slightly weaker league, the ABA - I only say slightly though. The ABA did have some very good teams and have a good amount of talent, but wasn't quite as good as the NBA, as evidenced by the Doctors individual stats and team success suffering a little bit after he went from ABA to NBA.

Moses meanwhile, matched up very well vs Kareem (the no. 3 GOAT according to this board), beating him in the playoffs in both 81 and 83, leading his team to the finals in 81 and sweeping the defending champs Lakers in 83. Yes, Dr. J was on that 83 Sixers team but Moses was the MVP of the league that year and finals MVP. Moses won 3 NBA MVPs compared to 1 fr Dr. J. Yes, Dr. J won 3 ABA MVPs, but again, it depends how much you value the level of competition in the ABA. IMO, 3 NBA MVPs is just as impressive as 3 ABA MVPs and 1 NBA MVP - possibly more.

Moses meanwhile, matched up very well vs Kareem (the no. 3 GOAT according to this board), beating him in the playoffs in both 81 and 83, leading his team to the finals in 81 and sweeping the defending champs Lakers in 83. Yes, Dr. J was on that 83 Sixers team but Moses was the MVP of the league that year and finals MVP. Moses won 3 NBA MVPs compared to 1 fr Dr. J. Yes, Dr. J won 3 ABA MVPs, but again, it depends how much you value the level of competition in the ABA. IMO, 3 NBA MVPs is just as impressive as 3 ABA MVPs and 1 NBA MVP - possibly more. Dr. J was a better defender and passer, but he was by no means GOAT level at either defending or passing, whereas Moses was a GOAT level rebounder.

Also - it certainly seems like I have Baylor ranked higher than most on here, but in terms of scoring and rebounding numbers in his prime - he was not far off at all from Wilt Chamberlain, despite the fact that Baylor was 8 inches shorter than Wilt. Wilt got voted in the no. 6 spot, so I see no reason why Baylor can't be no. 17. Also, while I do have West ahead of Baylor, I think the gap between those 2 is very close, much closer than what most people think. Often times when they were teammates, Baylor was simply the better, more dangerous player who was bigger, stronger, more powerful and more athletic. Baylor was an exceptional passer and defender. Again, I have West ahead of Baylor, but it's very close. West got voted in at n. 13, so I see no reason why Baylor can't be no. 17.

[Hal14]

1) Mikan
2) Malone
3) Erving

(then kd moses drob dirk steph). Will explain later

Which Malone?

[mailmp]

Kind-of funny how little Elgee’s work seems to have affected this community. Pretty holistic case for Moses as a deeply flawed player (slotted in at #25), but yes, he won two games against Kareem in 1981, won a wholly undeserved MVP off the basis of that fluke (in addition to a weak MVP in 1979), and then won a title by jumping ship at his peak to a team that had been in two of the last three Finals, so I guess that makes him a top twenty lock.

1. Dirk Nowitzki
I am inclined to agree with Ben that team construction may have overstated Dirk’s impact, but I also do think he undersold Dirk (and the evaluation he mentions at the end of his profile which would have put Dirk up to #14 is one I feel he should have followed). The inelasticity of Dirk’s playoff scoring is legendary and paralleled basically only by Reggie, and he is a clear choice above West as a consequence of West’s weaker longevity and injured postseasons.

2. Julius Erving
The on/off scolds border on having some of us believe that the three time NBA finalist 76ers probably would have been better off trading Erving and building around Bobby Jones and Maurice Cheeks (strangely I doubt this will come up with Dwight Howard). He was the best player of the ABA, was a top three player in the NBA until 1983, succeeded with varying rosters (please criticise the scalability of a player who led that mismashed 1977 76ers roster to the Finals ), had strong longevity, and was an excellent postseason performer throughout his career. People here can talk about winning bias, but if you flip his 1982 defeat of the Celtics with his narrow 1981 loss, he is probably guaranteed a spot among most fans’ top fifteen.

3. Karl Malone
All three have strong longevity but I think the prior two have a stronger playoff peak/prime and subsequently a more real chance of leading a random team to a title. Malone is not winning in Dirk’s place, and in Erving’s place I doubt he matches the same level of success either beyond the 1983 Durant precursor title.

[70sFan]

Kind-of funny how little Elgee’s work seems to have affected this community. Pretty holistic case for Moses as a deeply flawed played (slotted in at #25), but yes, he won two games against Kareem in 1981, won a wholly undeserved MVP off the basis of that fluke (in addition to a weak MVP in 1979), and then won a title by jumping ship at his peak to a team that had been in two of the last three Finals, so I guess that makes him a top twenty lock.

I don't have Moses that high, but come on... The way you talk about him it seems like he's not even top 30.

Who would you have over Moses in 1982 season as the MVP? Because he led absolutely terrible cast to solid 46 wins and playoffs. Sure, they lost in the first round against much better team but it was 2-1 series and Moses played well.

Then Rockets lost him and became one of the worst teams ever despite getting very solid replacement in Caldwell Jones. They went from decent offense to one of the worst ever. Even defensively they went from slightly below average to absolutely terrible. The difference is basically the same as with 2018 and 2019 Cavs. Moses carried them quite heavily.

Now does it mean that Moses should be this high? I don't think so. Does it change the fact that he was limited player? No, but he's not the only limited player that is considered now. Besides, I think most people don't realize how complete his scoring repertoire was - he was among the most versatile isolation players ever among centers. He's like less refined, but more physical Hakeem without elite defense.

Moses peak was legit - he was excellent offensive player in 1979-83 period and we have enough evidences to believe that he had positive defensive impact in that period. I'm more concerned about his play after 1983, but to me Moses definitely deserves to be put inside top 20 (at worst top 25) in terms of peak.

[mailmp]

Kind-of funny how little Elgee’s work seems to have affected this community. Pretty holistic case for Moses as a deeply flawed played (slotted in at #25), but yes, he won two games against Kareem in 1981, won a wholly undeserved MVP off the basis of that fluke (in addition to a weak MVP in 1979), and then won a title by jumping ship at his peak to a team that had been in two of the last three Finals, so I guess that makes him a top twenty lock.

I don't have Moses that high, but come on... The way you talk about him it seems like he's not even top 30.

Does saying a holistic analysis puts him at 25 (I was wrong — it was actually 26) sounds like “not even top 30”. I do not think you can blame that one on a language barrier.

Who would you have over Moses in 1982 season as the MVP?

Erving, Bird, Kareem... hell, Moncrief... really anyone who led a team with a positive SRS could have been in contention.

Because he led absolutely terrible cast to solid 46 wins and playoffs. Sure, they lost in the first round against much better team but it was 2-1 series and Moses played well.

Then Rockets lost him and became one of the worst teams ever despite getting very solid replacement in Caldwell Jones. They went from decent offense to one of the worst ever. Even defensively they went from slightly below average to absolutely terrible. The difference is basically the same as with 2018 and 2019 Cavs. Moses carried them quite heavily.

This is such superficial “analysis”.

A.) The Rockets lost their two top minute players, to say nothing of the rest of the team not improving anywhere.
B.) Caldwell was at best profoundly mediocre and was only getting worse. He did not crack thirty minutes a game.
C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.
D.) Even with that Moses still has an extremely middling WOWYR profile.
E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

I'm more concerned about his play after 1983, but to me Moses definitely deserves to be put inside top 20 (at worst top 25) in terms of peak

This is not a peaks project.

[Odinn21]

15. Moses Malone
I believe this will be my most controversial choice so far but I'm pretty confident in this pick.
His single season peak was tier 2 on overall for me. I'd put 1982 or 1983 Moses in the same tier as 2004 Garnett, even though I'd rate Garnett slightly higher. One of the things going for Moses though, his 3 season peak from 1980-81 to 1982-83 is definitely at the top level among the available names. He does not come short in peak, extended peak, prime and extended prime for me. His career resume is also massive.
He was one of the most skilled bigs on offense. His name rarely comes up among the best low post scorers but he literally had every move in his book and he was at least pretty good on some and great or best on most. Look at the players he thought; Hakeem Olajuwon and Charles Barkley. Also he was at least as good as old man Duncan from mid range.
The arguments against him usually go such as this;
- "He wouldn't be that good in the modern times which utilize PnR far more."
Portability is very important, yes. But, TBH, this is like saying Oscar Robertson did not shoot enough threes to me. Don't see the point of penalizing a player for a play style that was not there in his time.
Also, one of the things that gets easily overlooked while thinking about Moses' portability is that he's quite possibly the greatest foul drawing big. That would make wonders in any era. I don't have the exact numbers right now because BBRef made their play index service paid but I know that Moses Malone before fell out of his prime made young Hakeem Olajuwon fouled out in majority of their h2h games. I wrote the exact numbers in the past on the forum, if I find, I'll edit this part.
- "He was a negative impact on defense."
This is flat out wrong and it's not about some preference unlike the previous point. If Moses Malone was a negative impact on defense, then how did the Sixers improved on defense after losing their best defender in order to get Moses?
1982 Sixers; 7th in DRtg with -3.0 rDRtg
1983 Sixers; 5th in DRtg with -3.8 rDRtg
The thing about his defense was, he was inconsistent. He had bad defensive seasons and good defensive seasons, in the end both sides would cancel out each other and I'd put down Moses Malone as an average defender. But I never get the point of talking about him as if he was Nowitzki who got way more traction than him so far.
- "He was not an impact player."
This is also one of the wrong assumptions about him. I think I watched enough games of him to get the sense of a very positive impact player.
Also there was a Dipper 13 thread at the time, showing on/off Rtg numbers for the '80s Sixers. I'm looking for that, couldn't find it so far. If anyone has the link, it'd be appreciated.
Edit; Found it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZxRM9p2dFil5w6s21VEB4HnQZJymEY8_2vej-jREuUo/edit#gid=459687126
Just look at the numbers he had in '83 and '85 in Philly. (I tend to consider 1984 of Moses as something like 2005 for Bryant, a down year but also an outlier.)

The only aspect I'd hold against him is his passing. He was not a black hole, he was a decent facilitator. Though his passing lacked in some sense and you wouldn't see him those cutting passes to a guard under the basket. That type of stuff was the only major gap in his game for me.
His skillset was great, his scoring volume was great, he had the proper impact on offense, he's among one of the greatest rebounders. We usually overlook rebounding, the neutral aspect of the game, in this offense and defense evaluations. His defensive inconsistencies and passing issues are there to be addressed surely but, his great qualities are enough for me to put him on 15th spot.

16. Karl Malone
This spot was between Erving, West (he's already in there) and Karl Malone for me.
Between the 3, I'd rank their peaks in Erving, West, Malone order. While Malone falls behind in peak, average prime level and postseason resilience categories, for me he makes up more than that with his longevity. I'm aware that it was harder for Erving and West to have that many quality seasons in their career due to their times. What makes Malone's case is his constantly being that good over a decade. His 1st prime season was 1988 and his best season was 10 years after in 1998 at his 34. It's very hard to leave out Malone for top 5 prime duration. That makes his career value bigger than Erving and West for me.

17. George Mikan
To be honest, I probably even watched footages of Bob Pettit way more than Mikan, let alone Russell or other '60s legends. But Mikan's legacy and impact has to be in the top 20. I'll never be sure about his exact placement on the list but it's time I start to include him on my ballot.

[70sFan]

Erving, Bird, Kareem... hell, Moncrief... really anyone who led a team with a positive SRS could have been in contention.

You really believe that Moncrief was better than Moses in 1982 RS? I love Squid, but he arguably wasn't Bucks best player in 1982. Milwaukee had very strong and deep team in 1982, it's silly to compare that to Rockets.

A.) The Rockets lost their two top minute players, to say nothing of the rest of the team not improving anywhere.

Yeah, they also lost Robert Reid - decent starter whose absence made Rockets becoming WOAT team.

B.) Caldwell was at best profoundly mediocre and was only getting worse. He did not crack thirty minutes a game.

Jones was very good defender, so technically he should have been an upgrade on defense over overrated Moses right?
By the way, Jones played 29.8 mpg - you act like he played 20 mpg...

C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

Do you have anything to back it up?

This is not a peaks project.

Thanks, I didn't know that...

[mailmp]

Erving, Bird, Kareem... hell, Moncrief... really anyone who led a team with a positive SRS could have been in contention.

You really believe that Moncrief was better than Moses in 1982 RS? I love Squid, but he arguably wasn't Bucks best player in 1982. Milwaukee had very strong and deep team in 1982, it's silly to compare that to Rockets.

I would rather it go to the defensive anchor of a 5 SRS, -4.6 rDRTG team rather than to the offensive anchor of a negative SRS team, yeah. MVP is famously rarely about who is “better”, but if it is about the best regular season player then Moses still does not win that award.

A.) The Rockets lost their two top minute players, to say nothing of the rest of the team not improving anywhere.

Yeah, they also lost Robert Reid - decent starter whose absence made Rockets becoming WOAT team.

Yeah when you have a bad team and remove two of the three players capable of playing real minutes, and then that third player falls off a cliff, and then your entire team stops trying, the results tend to be awful. Shocker.

B.) Caldwell was at best profoundly mediocre and was only getting worse. He did not crack thirty minutes a game.

Jones was very good defender, so technically he should have been an upgrade on defense over overrated Moses right?

Who says 1982/83 Caldwell was any sort of ace defender? He was startable. On a team with Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, he was there to not be a liability.

By the way, Jones played 29.8 mpg - you act like he played 20 mpg...

Yes, when I say not playing 30 minutes, that means 20 minutes. Another good one.

C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Well they blatantly did the same thing the next year and save for Hinkie few front offices have ever come outright and said, “WE ARE TRYING TO LOSE,” but I am sure it is more convenient to pretend they were willfully ignorant about what the best course for their team was.

This is not a peaks project.

Thanks, I didn't know that...

So why mention him having a top twenty-five peak.

[freethedevil]

Kind-of funny how little Elgee’s work seems to have affected this community. Pretty holistic case for Moses as a deeply flawed played (slotted in at #25), but yes, he won two games against Kareem in 1981, won a wholly undeserved MVP off the basis of that fluke (in addition to a weak MVP in 1979), and then won a title by jumping ship at his peak to a team that had been in two of the last three Finals, so I guess that makes him a top twenty lock.

I don't have Moses that high, but come on... The way you talk about him it seems like he's not even top 30.

Who would you have over Moses in 1982 season as the MVP? Because he led absolutely terrible cast to solid 46 wins and playoffs. Sure, they lost in the first round against much better team but it was 2-1 series and Moses played well.

Then Rockets lost him and became one of the worst teams ever despite getting very solid replacement in Caldwell Jones. They went from decent offense to one of the worst ever. Even defensively they went from slightly below average to absolutely terrible. The difference is basically the same as with 2018 and 2019 Cavs. Moses carried them quite heavily..

Uhuh...

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

A.) The Rockets lost their two top minute players, to say nothing of the rest of the team not improving anywhere.
B.) Caldwell was at best profoundly mediocre and was only getting worse. He did not crack thirty minutes a game.
C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.
D.) Even with that Moses still has an extremely middling WOWYR profile.
E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

I've seen you dismiss far less context heavy drop offs, so brining up the post moses-rockets is a baffling decision.

[freethedevil]

verage defender. But I never get the point of talking about him as if he was Nowitzki who got way more traction than him so far.
- "He was not an impact player."
This is also one of the wrong assumptions about him. I think I watched enough games of him to get the sense of a very positive impact player.

Well this seems like a strawman. I imagine the actual knock is "he's not as impactful" as the players you've ranked him above. Would love to know how you've ascertained malone's impact realtive to dirk, oscar, karl, ect with your eyes.

[DQuinn1575]

Erving, Bird, Kareem... hell, Moncrief... really anyone who led a team with a positive SRS could have been in contention.

You really believe that Moncrief was better than Moses in 1982 RS? I love Squid, but he arguably wasn't Bucks best player in 1982. Milwaukee had very strong and deep team in 1982, it's silly to compare that to Rockets.

I would rather it go to the defensive anchor of a 5 SRS, -4.6 rDRTG team rather than to the offensive anchor of a negative SRS team, yeah. MVP is famously rarely about who is “better”, but if it is about the best regular season player then Moses still does not win that award.

A.) The Rockets lost their two top minute players, to say nothing of the rest of the team not improving anywhere.

Yeah, they also lost Robert Reid - decent starter whose absence made Rockets becoming WOAT team.

Yeah when you have a bad team and remove two of the three players capable of playing real minutes, and then that third player falls off a cliff, and then your entire team stops trying, the results tend to be awful. Shocker.

B.) Caldwell was at best profoundly mediocre and was only getting worse. He did not crack thirty minutes a game.

Jones was very good defender, so technically he should have been an upgrade on defense over overrated Moses right?

Who says 1982/83 Caldwell was any sort of ace defender? He was startable. On a team with Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, he was there to not be a liability.

By the way, Jones played 29.8 mpg - you act like he played 20 mpg...

Yes, when I say not playing 30 minutes, that means 20 minutes. Another good one.

C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Well they blatantly did the same thing the next year and save for Hinkie few front offices have ever come outright and said, “WE ARE TRYING TO LOSE,” but I am sure it is more convenient to pretend they were willfully ignorant about what the best course for their team was.

This is not a peaks project.

Thanks, I didn't know that...

So why mention him having a top twenty-five peak.

Caldwell Jones:
1. Twice led the ABA in blocks
2. Was 1st team all-defense twice in the 80s
3. Was starting for one of the top 3 teams in the league for years while scoring 7 ppg
4. Had a very good reputation as a good defensive player

If you are questioning his defense then you shouldn't be voting in this.

[Doctor MJ]

E.) Most importantly, you are ignoring the blatant tank job. The Rockets wanted to be bad. They actively sought the top pick and got it, much as the Spurs would do fifteen years later or as Hinkie would try twenty years after that.

Do you have anything to back it up?

So, I have to say, my first thought here was: C'mon, the Rockets' tank job was legendary. It clearly happened!

But as I look into it, I'm hard-pressed to see "tank job" as an excuse for how bad they were in '82-83.

In the first game of the season they lost by more than 30 points and they would start the season 0-10 with Elvin Hayes continuing to rack up his double digits. I realize that playing through Hayes was in effect a good way to successfully tank, but realistically, you don't put out 37 year old guys to purposefully tank. You might embrace the "organic tank" when it occurs, but I really don't think Houston started out that bad because they were trying to be bad and/or do a youth movement.

I will say that the Rockets also lost Robert Reid that year, but while that certainly didn't help, it's hard for me to argue that I think Reid's presence would have made a qualitative difference here. The story of the season actually seems pretty close to the "oversimplistic" narrative that without Moses there rebounding his teammates' plentiful misses and scoring from them, the other team did.

Part of what's interesting there to me is that that's now how the Rocket's offense rise arose. As you're no doubt aware, the Rockets became a great offensive team on the backs of Rudy Tomjanovich and Calvin Murphy. The addition of Moses made that offense even better, but his initial impact with those big numbers was nowhere near what the '82-83 team's folly would imply.

To me it seems like over time the team's non-Moses scoring ability just eroded and eroded but Moses being Moses bailed them out. And thus when he left, there really wasn't anything left.

[Cavsfansince84]

I didn't sign up to vote but if I could it would go:
1. Dirk. Great longevity, was the best player on about 12 straight 50 win teams and his overall ability to raise his game in the playoffs was among the best even when compared to other atg's.
2. Dr. J. I don't discount what he did in the aba that much. imo he was basically a top 3 player in the world for about 12 straight years and won titles in both leagues. Great longevity and great all around game. Also imo a very good teammate/leader.
3. Barkley. I am high on him as an offensive anchor, ability to highly impact games/series just with his rebounding and I also like the length of his prime and how good he usually was in the ps. Just a great competitor.