Historical TS Add Analysis

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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#61 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:01 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:Talk about a stat that doesn't love Jordan...


He still looks great, just admittedly not exactly GOAT. I don't think that's serious "proof" against Jordan, but Kareem looks pretty dang amazing doesn't he?

I mean you have him taking 30 win supporting casts to.. squints at the 89 playoffs... lower heights than the kyrie-and love-less 15 cavs, you have his effiency tanking by 8 points against defenses -4 or better, a growing collection of his stastically career best games during his peak in blowouts where he was massively outplayed both on defense and offense by one or two of his teamamtes prior to garbage time(he was rather consistently otuplayed by pippen and grant in he playoffs on defense btw), and a remarkably frquent trend of waiting till his team was ten points up to go do something goaty.

I know the majority of this forum doesn't want to hear it, and I'll most definitely be accused of an agenda by many(and tbf, i dont make much effort toz(and I dont see much of a point in) hide my biases), but at what point do we accept that maybe he wasn't as good as we think he was.

Like seriously, what exactly makes 91 MJ a different calibre of player than say, 15 Curry? They both were worth roughly 25 wins or so on atg teams, they both had atg stastically playoffs that look worse when you scrutinize them.

But one player is apparently the greatest season in history while the other actually shows he wasn't that good.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#62 » by 70sFan » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:12 pm

By this "adding wins" logic, James isn't anything special either in 2013 and 2014 - his team went 7-4 without him and they made the playoffs in 2016 without him (probably would have done the same in 2015 without countless injuries).

At some point, we should look at more things than just crude mathematical model of "adding wins". Basketball is much more complex than that.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#63 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:05 pm

freethedevil wrote: a growing collection of his stastically career best games during his peak in blowouts where he was massively outplayed both on defense and offense by one or two of his teamamtes prior to garbage time(he was rather consistently otuplayed by pippen and grant in he playoffs on defense btw), and a remarkably frquent trend of waiting till his team was ten points up to go do something goaty.



Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#64 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:53 pm

70sFan wrote:By this "adding wins" logic, James isn't anything special either in 2013 and 2014 - his team went 7-4 without him and they made the playoffs in 2016 without him (probably would have done the same in 2015 without countless injuries). .

You're right, he isn't.


That leaves us with, *checks notes


-> 2012
-> 2017
-> 2015
-> 2016
-> 2020

All playoff runs where the difference in outcomes matches up or exceeds Jordan in 89 ad 90 who even going by superficial box score analysis, were his most "impeccable" postseasons

oh and

-> 2009

Put 91 in the mix and I can expand lebron's map to

-> 2013
-> 2014
-> 2018

This is as close to a 50 state strategy as it gets you know.



its not as simple as adding wins

Off course, alas,this comaprison only gets worse when we get into the nitty gritty.

Remember that series you told me was jordan's "best defensive series"?

He averaged 4-5 defensive breakdowns a game vs 5-6 good plays by my count. He erased points in the paint once or twice a game, made 2-3 contests a game, and was involved in 1-2 of the full court presses doing the hedging as opposed to facing the defender directly(the more valuable part of the press). In non grabage time minuites he created 2-3 scoring oppurtunities a game, and even ignoring game 2 esque stat padding in game 1(his stastical best game of the serie sy far) he shot 54%TS against the league's 11th worst defense. As far as ball handling goes, he brought the ball up, 5-6 times a game, and once a game during half court possessions


This is Lebron against a defense better than the 88 pistons against dwight howard and a team of better shooters than his who were _white hot from three_:

10 OC a game(for reference, magic managed 12 OC a game aganst the bulls in 91), and massive ball handling responsibliites for turnover economy as good as jordan's ever managed.

He erased paint points from dwight 2-3 times a game, held all his 1 v1 matchups 2-3 points below their egular season averages(remember they were white hot EVERYWHERE ELSE.

Oh and he scored as well as jordan ever has against Dwight Howard and an elite perimiter defense.

To put it simply, we have seen, Lebron at his best, when it matters, protect the rim much better than jordan ever has, defend 1 v1 as well as jordan ever has, create vastly more than jordan ever has, shoulde rmore responsiblity than jordan ever has, score abotu as much as jordan ever has and do all that on better effiency than jordan's ever managed.


2016 and 2015 had Lebron, when you adjust for context, challenging teams as good as the 91 bulls. Even with a banged up curry, the warriors beat a team that played 65 wi nbasktball at full strength(okc). They missed their second ebst layer for a game and their 4th and 5th best player was banged up for a game. The cavs won by 2 possessions.

In 89, Jordan's crowning achievement was beating a 63 win rs team by a single possesion when their best player missed a game and was banged up for the series..

In 2015, before brining out the death lineup, ,the biggest factor, in the warriors going from 67 wins to a record bereaking 73 wins the cavs went toe to toe and stood a real chance of beating the version fo the warriors that went and wno 67 games.

IN 2015 Lebron's cavs outdid the 89 bulls as he had hisleast effcient playoffs. In 2016. they did it with Lebron playing better defense than jordan's ever played at 32, while creating and scoring at a volume that rivals what jordan has ever managed.


We can literally disregard when Lebron out did peak jordan at every major aspect of basketball for a vastly better resulting lift at 24, and Lebron still has multiple playoffs where he took his team to higher heights with worse or comprable help to Jordan at his most 'flawless'.

We really need to stop regurgitating this notion that Lebron outdoing jordan happened once or is merely some stastical phenomenon.His effiency is more reslient against great defenses on the sample of his entire career, he's challenged 91 bulls level teams b2b post the age of 30, and has out done jordan both in title winning years against absolute defensive gauntlets(2012) and against competition more difficult than jordan at his supposed title winning best(2009).


Go series by series, go game by game. You can take out 2009, 2010, and looking at actual results, 2012-2017 Lebron -still- had a bigger impact on playoff outcomes/results than 88-93 MJ.


Lebron is the one whose box stats correlate better with impact, Lebron is the one who has several playoffs where he provided comparable or better lift than jordan's eve rmanaged, and Lebron is the one whose effiency holds up much better against the best of the best.

At some point we need to call a spade a spade. Lebron is better.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#65 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:03 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
freethedevil wrote: a growing collection of his stastically career best games during his peak in blowouts where he was massively outplayed both on defense and offense by one or two of his teamamtes prior to garbage time(he was rather consistently otuplayed by pippen and grant in he playoffs on defense btw), and a remarkably frquent trend of waiting till his team was ten points up to go do something goaty.



Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)

Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#66 » by penbeast0 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:06 pm

freethedevil wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
freethedevil wrote: a growing collection of his stastically career best games during his peak in blowouts where he was massively outplayed both on defense and offense by one or two of his teamamtes prior to garbage time(he was rather consistently otuplayed by pippen and grant in he playoffs on defense btw), and a remarkably frquent trend of waiting till his team was ten points up to go do something goaty.



Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)

Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.


Did we? Or was that another board. I remember the time before last we decided the 86 Celtics was #1, don't remember who won the last time.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#67 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:09 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)

Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.


Did we? Or was that another board. I remember the time before last we decided the 86 Celtics was #1, don't remember who won the last time.

I'm talking single greatest player season, where 91 MJ somehow manages to sleep walk to #1...
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#68 » by 70sFan » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:15 pm

freethedevil wrote:You're right, he isn't.


That leaves us with, *checks notes


-> 2012
-> 2017
-> 2015
-> 2016
-> 2020

All playoff runs where the difference in outcomes matches up or exceeds Jordan in 89 ad 90 who even going by superficial box score analysis, were his most "impeccable" postseasons

oh and

-> 2009

Put 91 in the mix and I can expand lebron's map to

-> 2013
-> 2014
-> 2018

This is as close to a 50 state strategy as it gets you know.

You're not getting my point and I'm not going to try again...

Remember that series you told me was jordan's "best defensive series"?

No, because I never did that.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#69 » by Jordan Syndrome » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:33 pm

Can we please not turn this into another LeBron vs Jordan thread? Id rather we focus on the statistic analysis part...
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#70 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:14 pm

freethedevil wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
freethedevil wrote: a growing collection of his stastically career best games during his peak in blowouts where he was massively outplayed both on defense and offense by one or two of his teamamtes prior to garbage time(he was rather consistently otuplayed by pippen and grant in he playoffs on defense btw), and a remarkably frquent trend of waiting till his team was ten points up to go do something goaty.



Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)

Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.


So it's been 29 years since I watched the games, so I'll look at numbers-
1. created more ? - Jordan had 39 assists in the 5 games, Pippen 25 - hard to think that when your leading scorer is getting 56% more assists than another player that Pippen is creating more.
2. scored more ? Jordan scored 140 points, Pippen 106 - Jordan scored more points in each and every game, and that is 32% more in total.
3. Pippen shot better overall, and in 4 of the 5 games. That is correct.

Jordan averaged 7 assists in those 2 games, Klay's playoff career high is 7
He scored 29 ppg on above league average fg% (forget the free throws). Klay scored 29 or more 13 of 124 career playoff games.

So I think I'm missing some components of this, can you help me understand better?
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#71 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:38 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
freethedevil wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Not arguing the defense side, but not sure about games where he was massively outplayed both on offense and defense by one or two of his teammates - (and not sure how it is growing)

Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.


So it's been 29 years since I watched the games, so I'll look at numbers-
1. created more ? - Jordan had 39 assists in the 5 games, Pippen 25 - hard to think that when your leading scorer is getting 56% more assists than another player that Pippen is creating more.

[b]OC is't assists.. OC means when a player does the lion's work creating free throws, an open shot or a basket. So example, if you do a simple skip pass with one defender guarding you and the player who takes the shot makes it, doesn't count.

An example, of this, in game 1 Jordan had 2 assists, but 2 OC's before the bulls before the game was effectivey over at 62-42. One of his assists didn't count as an oc(since someone else drew two defenders) to set up the chance andi gave jordan an oc where he didnt get asssit when he set up free throws. Pippen by contrast had 5 OC's up to that point, three of fantastic transition passes, one of drawing a double and dishing for a basket, andone off setting up a freethrow.
[/b]
2. scored more ? Jordan scored 140 points, Pippen 106 - Jordan scored more points in each and every game, and that is 32% more in total.
That's because in two of those games(the stastically most impressive via bbal reference), after the gaem was effectively ended, Jordan's volume skyrocketed and his effiency went up. While the game was in question however Pippen scored more. Example. In game 1 of the ecsf, Jordan was on pace for 27 points and then with the game over he takes that to like 37 with the ts going from 60 to 67%. In game 2 of the ecf this gets really egregious, where jordan's on pace for like 24 points on 60% TS but skyrockets this to 30+ something(idrc of the top of my head) on 69% ts because the other team spends the whole 4th quarter fouling to try an dmake the deficit up on a bunch of possessions via jumpshots. Before that point jordan only drew ONE freethrow

3. Pippen shot better overall, and in 4 of the 5 games. That is correct.

Jordan averaged 7 assists in those 2 games, Klay's playoff career high is 7
see the oc section
He scored 29 ppg on above league average fg% (forget the free throws). Klay scored 29 or more 13 of 124 career playoff games.

So I think I'm missing some components of this, can you help me understand better?
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#72 » by freethedevil » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:47 pm

70sFan wrote:
freethedevil wrote:You're right, he isn't.


That leaves us with, *checks notes


-> 2012
-> 2017
-> 2015
-> 2016
-> 2020

All playoff runs where the difference in outcomes matches up or exceeds Jordan in 89 ad 90 who even going by superficial box score analysis, were his most "impeccable" postseasons

oh and

-> 2009

Put 91 in the mix and I can expand lebron's map to

-> 2013
-> 2014
-> 2018

This is as close to a 50 state strategy as it gets you know.

You're not getting my point and I'm not going to try again...

Remember that series you told me was jordan's "best defensive series"?

No, because I never did that.

You literally said he was comparable to Giannis th defensively is series because it was "the best defense you've ever see him play."
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#73 » by 70sFan » Fri Nov 20, 2020 5:21 pm

freethedevil wrote:
70sFan wrote:
freethedevil wrote:You're right, he isn't.


That leaves us with, *checks notes


-> 2012
-> 2017
-> 2015
-> 2016
-> 2020

All playoff runs where the difference in outcomes matches up or exceeds Jordan in 89 ad 90 who even going by superficial box score analysis, were his most "impeccable" postseasons

oh and

-> 2009

Put 91 in the mix and I can expand lebron's map to

-> 2013
-> 2014
-> 2018

This is as close to a 50 state strategy as it gets you know.

You're not getting my point and I'm not going to try again...

Remember that series you told me was jordan's "best defensive series"?

No, because I never did that.

You literally said he was comparable to Giannis th defensively is series because it was "the best defense you've ever see him play."

No, I never said that. Show me any quote that could support this because I can't remember saying anything about the best defensive series of Jordan's career. I don't know Jordan's career well enough to make such a claim.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#74 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:06 pm

freethedevil wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
freethedevil wrote:Game 1 and 2 of the ecf, game 1, 2 and 4 of the ecsf, Pippen created more, scored more and more effeicently in non garbage time, id vastly more ball handling, ect, ect.

Seriously the bulls smashed the best opponent in the east to take a commanding 2-0 lead over the defending champs with Micheal Jordan doing a poor impression of klay thompson.

--This-- is the season that realgm has religouslt voted #1 over and over and over again.


So it's been 29 years since I watched the games, so I'll look at numbers-
1. created more ? - Jordan had 39 assists in the 5 games, Pippen 25 - hard to think that when your leading scorer is getting 56% more assists than another player that Pippen is creating more.

[b]OC is't assists.. OC means when a player does the lion's work creating free throws, an open shot or a basket. So example, if you do a simple skip pass with one defender guarding you and the player who takes the shot makes it, doesn't count.

An example, of this, in game 1 Jordan had 2 assists, but 2 OC's before the bulls before the game was effectivey over at 62-42. One of his assists didn't count as an oc(since someone else drew two defenders) to set up the chance andi gave jordan an oc where he didnt get asssit when he set up free throws. Pippen by contrast had 5 OC's up to that point, three of fantastic transition passes, one of drawing a double and dishing for a basket, andone off setting up a freethrow.
[/b]
2. scored more ? Jordan scored 140 points, Pippen 106 - Jordan scored more points in each and every game, and that is 32% more in total.
That's because in two of those games(the stastically most impressive via bbal reference), after the gaem was effectively ended, Jordan's volume skyrocketed and his effiency went up. While the game was in question however Pippen scored more. Example. In game 1 of the ecsf, Jordan was on pace for 27 points and then with the game over he takes that to like 37 with the ts going from 60 to 67%. In game 2 of the ecf this gets really egregious, where jordan's on pace for like 24 points on 60% TS but skyrockets this to 30+ something(idrc of the top of my head) on 69% ts because the other team spends the whole 4th quarter fouling to try an dmake the deficit up on a bunch of possessions via jumpshots. Before that point jordan only drew ONE freethrow

3. Pippen shot better overall, and in 4 of the 5 games. That is correct.

Jordan averaged 7 assists in those 2 games, Klay's playoff career high is 7
see the oc section
He scored 29 ppg on above league average fg% (forget the free throws). Klay scored 29 or more 13 of 124 career playoff games.

So I think I'm missing some components of this, can you help me understand better?


I'll argue with you if you put it on another thread - not doing it on this one. Just quote me and open up a topic.
Thanks - apologize for everyone else for going off-topic here.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#75 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:11 pm

70sFan wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Gilmore averaged 20.8 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 2.8 apg and 3.1 bpg on 58.8 TS% in this streak. It's fair to say that Gilmore needed some time to adjust to the new league, as he finished the season strong. He also played one of his finest NBA games in 1977 playoffs when he scored 27 points and blocked 5 shots against Portland and Walton.


That's not the question. Same personnel, pretty much all in their primes except maybe Van Lier and he was just turning 30. 20 missed games by Scott May and the went from the 2nd best defensive team in the league to the 3rd worse. And that's with a full season under Gilmore's belt to adjust to the NBA. So what happened in 78?

As I said - I can't tell you. If you are interested, we could start a new thread with 1977-79 Bulls games analysis. I can provide around 12 Bulls games from that period (I've collected them for a long time). We can go further with 1980-82 Bulls games as well. I'd love to discuss this topic with someone who has passion and knowledge to talk about one of my favorite players ever :)


I'm up for talking 77-82 Bulls (and before and after). I'm a Chicagoan, and lived through it.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#76 » by feyki » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:35 pm

eminence wrote:
kayess wrote:Excuse my ignorance here Doc but - what exactly is TS Add? Wasn't able to find anything on it :/


It's basically a combination of rTS% and scoring volume.


It's almost exact same as win shares :D .
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#77 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:09 am

My only real issue with the whole ts add stats that have been added is that I think they are slightly skewered by all the guys who have a very high ts% but who only average about 8-15ppg with most of it coming from dunks and putbacks. That to some degree creates an artificially high league wide ts% which sort of penalizes everyone else who are actually the ones asked to run offenses and take the big shots when teams need points in the last few minutes of games while also creating a lot of those easy shots for those bigs.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#78 » by Mazter » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:01 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:My only real issue with the whole ts add stats that have been added is that I think they are slightly skewered by all the guys who have a very high ts% but who only average about 8-15ppg with most of it coming from dunks and putbacks. That to some degree creates an artificially high league wide ts% which sort of penalizes everyone else who are actually the ones asked to run offenses and take the big shots when teams need points in the last few minutes of games while also creating a lot of those easy shots for those bigs.

There is nothing artificial about it. The league just understands better now that it's not worth it to end up taking a 40% hook shot from the post. They rather settle for a 30-35% 3-point shot. That is what driving the league wide ts% up.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#79 » by trex_8063 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:23 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Probably, but I do remember him being a lot more active in Kentucky than Chicago defensively which is the basis of my comment.

Looking it up -- Chicago's defense was actually good his first year (they went from 9th with Boerwinkle to 2nd with Gilmore) then literally fell off the table in 78 (20th/22!) and stayed below average the rest of his Chicago tenure so the stats do generally back up my memories here.


The interesting [perhaps makes more impressive] thing about that jump in '77 is that they mostly lost Bob Love (supposedly good defender), and the '76 squad had 22 games from an aging Jerry Sloan and 13 games from an aging Nate Thurmond (both gone in '77).....still improved by -1.8 in rDRTG.

After that.....yeah, I've had trouble pegging exactly what happened.
fwiw, the ONE defensive FF they remained elite in was DREB% (which one must figure Gilmore's a big part of). Very poor in opp eFG% though.
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Re: Historical TS Add Analysis 

Post#80 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:29 pm

Mazter wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:My only real issue with the whole ts add stats that have been added is that I think they are slightly skewered by all the guys who have a very high ts% but who only average about 8-15ppg with most of it coming from dunks and putbacks. That to some degree creates an artificially high league wide ts% which sort of penalizes everyone else who are actually the ones asked to run offenses and take the big shots when teams need points in the last few minutes of games while also creating a lot of those easy shots for those bigs.

There is nothing artificial about it. The league just understands better now that it's not worth it to end up taking a 40% hook shot from the post. They rather settle for a 30-35% 3-point shot. That is what driving the league wide ts% up.


Did you actually read what I wrote? What I'm saying are those guys existed in every era and the net effect is that it sort of penalizes the ts add for the guys who really carry offenses.

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