RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 (James Harden)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 (James Harden) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:42 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. ???

Because of the later end to the last, we'll look to close this one out somewhere around 8-9pm EST on Wednesday.
Might be a good idea to sound off on your preference between Harden and Baylor, regardless of who your votes are for. They look like they might be front-runners, based on last thread.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#2 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 1:59 am

1. John Havlicek
-11x all nba 1st or 2nd team(4 1st)
-7x all nba defense(5 1st) and played 6 years before those were created
-7x top 10 in mvp voting
-8x champ and 1 fmvp(strong case in 69 as well averaging 28.1/11.0/4.4 on 52% ts but losing it to West)
-led 3 title teams in playoff scoring, assists and win shares(68, 69 and 74) which is something few other players have done(only other player to do this 3x is MJ)
-great all around skills(led Celtics in scoring 7x, apg 7x, win shares 6x)
-great chemistry/leadership/hustle guy

2. Rick Barry
-this is a very close one for me between Rick, Pippen, Harden and Baylor. I went with Barry mainly because at the end of the day he led a team to a title, has very good rs accolades(though close with Harden and Baylor) and imo was consistently the best in the playoffs out of this group. He also played in a tougher era for wings but was still very effective as a scorer and playmaker.
-11x all league(9x 1st team)
-6x top 5 in mvp voting
-led league in scoring in 67 with 35.6ppg with a ts add of +195
-overall very efficient volume scorer with career ts+ of 104(2% above league average) and 6 straight years with ts add over 120
-led aba/nba in playoff ppg 3x
-from 73-77 led the Warriors in ppg and apg while those teams ranked 11th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in ORtg showing how well he could orchestrate an offense
-epic 75 playoff run in which he won ring/fmvp

3. Scottie Pippen
-a big reason I am going with Pippen here over guys like Harden, Baylor and a couple others is that when it comes down to it he was as close to a defensive anchor as those Bulls teams had(with the absence of a good defensive center) and that was a dynasty which was built in large part on its defense. So imo its a big enough factor to put him above someone like Harden who while having 8 very strong regular seasons isn't impacting the game on defense and imo plays a style which is hard to win titles with while Pippen's is complimentary to most any team. I also respect how Scottie could turn that intensity up in the playoffs while still being able to score, rebound and play make while being very good in transition. He could help turn the momentum of games just with his defense because quite often those Bulls teams would get a 16-2 type run during a game and it would come off of forcing turnovers and turning them into easy baskets on the other end.
-7x all nba(3x 1st team)
-10x all defensive(8x 1st team)
-5x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 3rd)
-somewhat efficient scorer with career ts+ of 101. So slightly above league average.
-6th all time in steals
-36th in career bpm
-25th in career vorp
-13th in playoff win shares
-pretty good prime length
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 2:48 am

#1 Elgin Baylor. I know there have been a lot of questions about Baylor taking more shots than the more efficient Jerry West but at his peak he was a force with his scoring, his rebounding, decent passer, good guy. His teams had a lot of team success but couldn't get past Bill Russell -- something which could be said for pretty much everyone else from his era. I just think he's the most talented long career guy remaining. Havlicek was his peer but Baylor was a better scorer, much better rebounder, and did it against teams that gamed more for him; Havlicek is the better defender but in this case I don't think it's enough.

#2 James Harden == Behind them, I probably should vote Harden as the most individually dominant player. The other individual do it all scorer and playmaker was Rick Barry but if I ignore leadership issues, I'd go Harden over Barry anyway and Rick was at least as big a pain to be around.

My 3rd pick is Scottie Pippen.

Best remaining center is probably Gilmore, Dwight Howard would be the main competition unless I'm forgetting someone.
Best remaining forward is Pippen, I would take him for almost any team with any shot of going anywhere over Rick Barry who I think of as a supertalented locker room problem. Like a moderately inefficient Harden, but Harden's efficiency is what gets him in this high despite his issues. Havlicek was also inefficient, especially in the 60s. One of the rare players who got better (or the league got worse, or both) after he hit age 30. Still I have Pippen as a better playmaker, rebounder, defender, and not that far behind as a scorer.

Gervin is the best scorer left (other than Harden). His trouble is he brings almost nothing else. Contrast with Jason Kidd who brings great defense, good (but in my opinion often greatly overrated) playmaking, and poor shooting through his prime, greatly improving in his old age as he tried to do less, took more 3's, and played less defense.

Trying to think who I am missing. Great defenders like Mutombo, Bobby Jones, and probably Gary Payton could get into the mix but Mutombo has bad hands, Jones is the Manu Ginobli of forwards with limited ability to stay out on the floor for his NBA career, same for Kawhi except he also seems to have locker room issues and his defense waned as his offense waxed, and Payton's offense was a bit overrated when he played. Willing to listen before going past my top 3.

1. Elgin Baylor
2. James Harden
3. Scottie Pippen
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#4 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Dec 15, 2020 5:49 am

Vote:

1. Reggie Miller
2. John Havlicek
3. Scottie Pippen

Other preferences based on likely candidates:
Rick Barry
Kawhi Leonard
James Harden

Last couple times I believe I focused on Miller since he's my #1, but I think you guys probably get it at this point and just see now as too high for him. I get it. Ready to discuss him more when people are ready to think more about him.

I've been thinking a lot about Pippen lately and that eventually led me to put him on my list before Barry. Barry is a more proven alpha who excelled for longer in different team contexts, so there's a good case to be made for him, but Pippen is the one finding myself thinking I'm being too low on him. He's that classic #2 on offense, #1 on defense kind of guy who just seems like it'd be pretty easy to pair him with a scorer and go. And yeah, it only really ever worked like that with Jordan, and yeah that certainly hurts him in my ranking, but there really aren't a lot of guys like Pippen, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the Bulls had the success they had once they got a guy like Pippen.

Kawhi vs Harden clearly warrants explanation. I completely understand favoring Harden over Kawhi based on longevity, and frankly don't think you're crazy if you just plain think Harden is better than Kawhi. I can't say that I do though. I think Kawhi is the better all-around player and that it's easier to win championships with him than Harden, so the real question for me is whether longevity should give Harden the edge.

Let me show y'all a couple stats to chew on here.

Total Playoff Minutes:

Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359

Career Playoff WS/48:

Kawhi .2202
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Harden for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Harden, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Not saying Win Shares should decide anyone's opinion here on their own, but this is one of those situations where I find myself asking:

If I side with Harden here based on longevity, where am I saying that threshold was which would have shifted me to the opposite opinion? And it's hard for me to claim in all earnestness something along the lines of "I'd like to see the gap between their regular season career total production and achievement close by 50%". I just don't think there's anything along those lines that really matters to me enough to side against the guy who I think is better and has led 2 teams to titles rather than 0.

Where I potentially could have been swayed is in knocking Kawhi for his diva behavior that at this point I think is clearly a pattern and includes him leaving his 2 previous teams and messing up a culture on his current one, and believe me that is something that hurts him in some other comparisons.

But let's just say that the Beard has jumped the shark for me at present. Factoring these issues in doesn't exactly help Mr. Harden.

Alright, but I still do have Harden on my list, because at this point it's clear that I really need to have either him or Baylor on my list, so Harden.

Why am I so down on Baylor?

Here's the overarching thing: I believe that before serious analytics, everyone was essentially crawling in the dark trying to figure out what was really helping the team and what was actually hurting it. And I think that when you're a high primacy player it's easier than one might thing for all ones dogs not to be pulling in the same direction, and for those around you to see the issues but not recognize the extent of their effect.

My best estimation of Baylor is that he really struggled to create strong net impact on his teams the way that people assumed he did based on the overwhelming awesomeness of his game. The NBA had not had anyone like Baylor before and those who saw him rightly thought "That's the future of the league" when they saw the things his golden god body could do. But look...

last thread I made an argument looking at (arguably) Baylor's strongest year, ,'60-61, which is basically the opposite of cherry-picking. So now I'm going to pick a cherry. Not hiding the cherry-ness of this cherry, just want to bring it to folks attention, just want folks to mull it over how things were playing out.

Ready? Go back in time one more year to '59-60:

Baylor's Lakers had the worst offense in the league by ORtg and are the 2nd worst team in the league.

If you had asked folks at the time who the best offensive player in the world was, Baylor would have been on a very short list - and if (and when) we vote him in here, we're certainly keeping him on that list - so why wasn't the offense better with him?

I'm not demanding a response from people, but I think it's important for everyone to do more than just assume that his teammates were "the problem". I've had this philosophy ever since realize what it implied that Wilt's team offense was more effective with him as something other than a volume scorer. If a team scheme isn't working, how precisely is it failing?

I'm not claiming to have all the answers here, but when I recognize a guy seems to be a bit tone deaf to efficiency also happens to be on teams that are mysteriously inefficient, I tend to ask whether there's a connection.

In the end, I just don't think that Baylor had the kind of traction on impact that a guy like Harden does, and I don't think it's close. I also would probably give Harden the nod on prime duration at this point too. As mentioned, I don't love the position Harden has now put Houston in, but I don't think the gap between Harden & Baylor in terms of effectiveness as players is all that close.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#5 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:23 am

Huh, I checked out for a thread and Frazier picked Harden's pocket

I like Frazier I just think his longevity should have cost him a few more spots behind players like Drexler and Havlicek
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#6 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:26 am

1. Kawhi Leonard - You win championships in the play-offs and while a bit lacking in regular season total stats, he's probably the strongest play-off performer left. If you buy into the Kawhi bashing that's been popular ever since he joined the Clippers and think he lucked into a title with the Raptors then I understand him being this high is hard. To me though, his 2019 run is a signature season that's surpassed by only a handful of people. His play-offs longevity and peak are great and that is what matters to me the most.

2. Elgin Baylor - Baylor's first few years are really, really good. It's a shame his prime was cut short due to injuries but he has enough of a resume that his strong peak makes up for it like with Kawhi. It's a bit difficult to determine how effective older players really were but around here seems right to me.

3. John Havlicek - Barry, Pippen and Harden all have arguments here as well (along with others that slip my mind probably) but I'm going with Havlicek here. I was leaning Barry at first due to his very strong 75 peak along with some other good years as a first option but Barry spending most of his prime in the relatively weak early ABA and shooting significantly worse in the NBA makes me a bit hesitant to vote for him. Havlicek is a winner, plain and simple. He was arguably the best player on the 68 and 69 title teams or at least a close second to Russell. Then he took the Celtics to another title in 74 as the clear best player on the team.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#7 » by Hal14 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:43 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Elgin Baylor
2. John Havlicek
3. Isiah Thomas

Pettit was voted in several rounds ago, but IMO Baylor is slightly better than Pettit because Baylor was faster, better passer and better ball handler. And in terms of impact, Baylor was Dr. J before Dr. J. Baylor was Connie Hawkins before Connie Hawkins. Jordan modeled his game after Dr. J, as did Dominique Wilkins. Kobe and LeBron modeled their game after Jordan. Baylor was a pioneer. He paved the way for all of the explosive, big, strong, athletic wings to come later.

Also, Pettit's crowning achievement was his 50 point, 19 rebound game to led the Hawks to the win in game 6 over the Celtics to clinch the 1958 NBA championship. However, Russell only played 20 minutes that game because he had a severely sprained ankle suffered in game 3 of that series. Baylor meanwhile, scored 61 points and pulled down 22 rebounds to lead the Lakers to a win over the Celtics in game 5 of the 1962 NBA finals, so Baylor put up better numbers and did it against a healthy Russell who played all 48 minutes of that game. Baylor also played all 48 minutes that game. Jerry West? He had 26 points, 4 rebounds and 0 assists.

Baylor is the best all-around player left on the board IMO when you take into account his scoring, rebounding, passing, defense, ball handling and ability to score/defend both inside and outside.

Baylor and Pettit are both very close and it's definitely debatable which was the greater player. I think both have a case to be top 20 of all time. Scary to think how good they would have been if they played in the modern era with the advantage of 50 years of advances in basketball skills, more favorable rule changes, less days off between games, better equipment, better facilities, better weight training, better nutrition, better sports science, etc. Pettit was voted in several spots ago - it's Baylor's time now.

Baylor's teammate Jerry West is the no. 13 player on this list. And while I do have West ranked ahead of Baylor all-time, it is very close, so if West is no. 13 then Baylor could definitely be the no. 31 guy, considering that when they were teammates, Baylor was often times the better player. Lakers broadcaster Chick Hearn was quoted saying that Baylor was the best player he covered - not West. West is quoted saying that Baylor was better than him. Dr. J ranks Baylor as one of his top 5 players ever. Both Baylor and West made first team all NBA 10 times. Baylor was a better rebounder than West, a bigger, stronger more powerful player who could score and defend just as well inside as he could outside.

Anyone thinking Baylor isn't a top 31 player ever, I invite you to watch these videos:





Hondo is in my no. 2 spot here. 8 titles (8-0 in the NBA finals), Celtics all time leading scorer, outstanding defensive player, strong clutch player, 1 NBA finals MVP.

And yes, I do have Isiah ranked slightly ahead of Stockton and Nash. Isiah, Stockton and Nash - all 3 of them had good careers, and had good supporting casts. But of the 3, Nash is the only 1 who could never make it to the NBA finals and he's also the only one who couldn't play a lick of defense. Plus he struggled his first few years when the game was more physical, had less spacing and more geared towards big men/post play (a.k.a. the environment that Isiah played his whole career in and Stockton played his entire prime in) and wasn't until rule changes, no more hand checking, no more hard fouls, more spacing, the rise of the 3-point shot, D'Antoni's system - defense got much weaker in 05, etc. it wasn't until then that Nash dominated.

Stockton made it to the finals twice, but a) that was after Isiah retied and b) Stockton's Jazz team lost to Jordan's Bulls both times. Meanwhile, during the time when Stockton and Isiah were both in their prime, Isiah made it to 3 NBA finals, won 2 championships and would have been 3 if not for the phantom foul call on Laimbeer in 88, which even Pat Riley admits was a BS call:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2103545-pat-riley-admits-84-lakers-benefited-from-phantom-foul-vs-detroit-pistons

And while Stockton's team lost to Jordan's Bulls twice in the finals, Isiah's Pistons beat Jordan's Bulls 3 times in the playoffs, and beat Magic's Lakers in 89, would have beat Magic Lakers in 88 if not for Phantom Foul and beat Bird's Celtics in 88..

Yes, it's a team game and Isiah had a strong supporting cast, but Isiah was the Piston's best player his entire career except for the very end of his career when he had injuries and the Pistons were a joke before they drafted him.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:07 pm

penbeast0 wrote:#1 Elgin Baylor. I know there have been a lot of questions about Baylor taking more shots than the more efficient Jerry West but at his peak he was a force with his scoring, his rebounding, decent passer, good guy. His teams had a lot of team success but couldn't get past Bill Russell -- something which could be said for pretty much everyone else from his era. I just think he's the most talented long career guy remaining. Havlicek was his peer but Baylor was a better scorer, much better rebounder, and did it against teams that gamed more for him; Havlicek is the better defender but in this case I don't think it's enough.

#2 James Harden == Behind them, I probably should vote Harden as the most individually dominant player. The other individual do it all scorer and playmaker was Rick Barry but if I ignore leadership issues, I'd go Harden over Barry anyway and Rick was at least as big a pain to be around.

My 3rd pick is Scottie Pippen.

Best remaining center is probably Gilmore, Dwight Howard would be the main competition unless I'm forgetting someone.
Best remaining forward is Pippen, I would take him for almost any team with any shot of going anywhere over Rick Barry who I think of as a supertalented locker room problem. Like a moderately inefficient Harden, but Harden's efficiency is what gets him in this high despite his issues. Havlicek was also inefficient, especially in the 60s. One of the rare players who got better (or the league got worse, or both) after he hit age 30. Still I have Pippen as a better playmaker, rebounder, defender, and not that far behind as a scorer.

Gervin is the best scorer left (other than Harden). His trouble is he brings almost nothing else. I will look into Reggie Miller v. Gervin next time unless someone else wants to do it. Contrast with Jason Kidd who brings great defense, good (but in my opinion often greatly overrated) playmaking, and poor shooting through his prime, greatly improving in his old age as he tried to do less, took more 3's, and played less defense.

Trying to think who I am missing. Great defenders like Mutombo, Bobby Jones, and probably Gary Payton could get into the mix but Mutombo has bad hands, Jones is the Manu Ginobli of forwards with limited ability to stay out on the floor for his NBA career, same for Kawhi except he also seems to have locker room issues and his defense waned as his offense waxed, and Payton's offense was a bit overrated when he played. Willing to listen before going past my top 3.

1. Elgin Baylor
2. James Harden
3. Scottie Pippen
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#9 » by Joao Saraiva » Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:51 pm

Votes
James Harden
Kawih Leonard
Scottie Pippen


I'm giving it to James Harden here. I think he's getting a bit underrated due to a bit of lack of team success... but considering his rosters I can't say he has done too bad either.

Yes he has dropped a bit in the playoffs, but it's not like he has been really bad in some campaigns.

In OKC he was really important going to the 2012 finals since he was the ball handler in the 4th quarter a lot of times, and in the WCF he did an amazing job with that. People remember him for not having a good finals, but he was important to get there in the 1st place.

I also see 15, 18 and 20 as good campaigns. I can't fault him for CP3 being injured, or for losing to the Lakers when the duo with Westbrook didn't work.

He's not such a good fit as Harden or the defender Walt Frazier or Pippen or Kawih are, but I believe he tops all of them as an offensive weapon. The issue I have with Kawih has been longevity, since even when he doesn't get injured he misses a ton of games. Can't put him higher even tough he is a legit #1 option. Hope he adds some longevity to rise in the rankings. Even above Ewing and Pippen he seems a bit suspicious, but I beleive proving himself as a #1 option while the others didn't is something I can't ignore.

I think that despite not having the ring, Harden is a proven legit #1 option on a contender.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#10 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:11 pm

I'm going to be honest and say I have a really hard time even putting Kawhi in my top 40 right now. I mean if I have to choose between having a guy like Reggie Miller for 15 years or having 4 years of prime Kawhi where he misses around 55 rs games(and also has one of his ps runs cut short by injury) and another couple years where he's a terrific 3&D guy I think I'd much rather build around Reggie. I think its way too soon to say Kawhi is really that much better than a guy like Reggie that his 4 best years make Reggie's 8-10 more years obsolete. Probably more so when you consider he is one of the more passive leadership/chemistry guys we've ever seen for a #1 though I give him credit for being able to raise his game in the playoffs(usually).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#11 » by Owly » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:48 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:I'm going to be honest and say I have a really hard time even putting Kawhi in my top 40 right now. I mean if I have to choose between having a guy like Reggie Miller for 15 years or having 4 years of prime Kawhi where he misses around 55 rs games(and also has one of his ps runs cut short by injury) and another couple years where he's a terrific 3&D guy I think I'd much rather build around Reggie. I think its way too soon to say Kawhi is really that much better than a guy like Reggie that his 4 best years make Reggie's 8-10 more years obsolete. Probably more so when you consider he is one of the more passive leadership/chemistry guys we've ever seen for a #1 though I give him credit for being able to raise his game in the playoffs(usually).

I'm struggling with the maths on this.

You are giving Kawhi 4 to 6 years (based on "couple" and the following) and Miller 15. And Reggie 8-10 more years.

Miller has 12 years of big minutes combined with usage north of 20 (i.e. average). I'd say that's roughly his prime. I can see going forward (or back) two or three years especially (re pushing forward) if it's just "relevantly value adding years". But then it seems pretty odd not giving Kawhi '13. "Couple of years" as "3&D guy" also seems a touch ... mean. He's a 3 and D guy that's in '15 is also posting a PER north of anything Reggie ever did, WS/48 higher than all but 3 Miller season (one above, one narrowly above, one tied) and BPM very narrowly north of Reggie's best. And I think strong impact measures too (certainly on-off).

Your point could stand without being bang-on with the years. And I don't know where I'd come out on these guys ... I think many I value longevity of quality more than many. But the framing here seems ... a touch mean on Leonard.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#12 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:23 pm

I'm putting up a vote for Harden; he has 9 elite years in the modern era, and has been a scoring and passing machine. Team success hasn't been there, which is what keeps him from being ranked higher. But tons of points, efficiency, and playmaking. I think he is best choice out there. He was mvp, and has operated at the level of Curry, Durant, Paul, contemporaries who are all in. He has the best resume of any current player left, and right now the current era is probably the most underrepresented.

Havlicek is Pippen except he comes through in the clutch. Realized he led championship teams in playoff win shares both before and after Frazier - 3 times, which nobody else on the board is close to. All-around guy, played guard or forward,
great defender, played as piece of a team, or leader of a team. The guy did everything right, has longevity. Great athlete, just missed making the NFL, was in last cut of Cleveland Browns.

Elgin Baylor has become underrated as the pendulum swings. Truth is that he did have 2 bad years of shooting, but he is a volume scorer who performed well in playoffs, an excellent rebounder, and has passing skills and success that most dont realize. Carried a team better than Pippen, which is true of all 3 of these guys, and had more good seasons than Barry, who are probably my next two right now.

1. Harden
2. Havlicek
3. Baylor
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#13 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:28 pm

1. James Harden - he is still a #1, MVP level guy, has been for 8 years
2. John Havlicek - great long two way career, intangibles, big in playoffs
3. Elgin Baylor - I struggle to value his post knee surgery play, but before that he was a superstar for several years
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#14 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:38 pm

Owly wrote:I'm struggling with the maths on this.

You are giving Kawhi 4 to 6 years (based on "couple" and the following) and Miller 15. And Reggie 8-10 more years.

Miller has 12 years of big minutes combined with usage north of 20 (i.e. average). I'd say that's roughly his prime. I can see going forward (or back) two or three years especially (re pushing forward) if it's just "relevantly value adding years". But then it seems pretty odd not giving Kawhi '13. "Couple of years" as "3&D guy" also seems a touch ... mean. He's a 3 and D guy that's in '15 is also posting a PER north of anything Reggie ever did, WS/48 higher than all but 3 Miller season (one above, one narrowly above, one tied) and BPM very narrowly north of Reggie's best. And I think strong impact measures too (certainly on-off).

Your point could stand without being bang-on with the years. And I don't know where I'd come out on these guys ... I think many I value longevity of quality more than many. But the framing here seems ... a touch mean on Leonard.


My math may be off a little but what I am referencing are Reggie's 13 close to prime years I would say compared to Kawhi's 4 prime years. So 13-4 is 9 compared to the two years where Kawhi was a great 3&D guy essentially. I mean I think people understand the gist of what I am referencing here and its not explicitly to just compare him to Reggie. What I am saying is that I think any guy who played 10+ high value years has a lot of ground on Kawhi as of right now. I just used Reggie as one example.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:07 am

Not a ton of time, so basically just repeating my votes from last thread [though I switched #2 and #3 around]. Waffling a bit on Baylor [and had Kidd ahead prior to the start of this project, actually]; Hondo is right there in my mind, too.


1st vote: Scottie Pippen
With Pettit, Mikan, and Curry already off the table, I'm pretty set on Pip as my #1 pick here.

Was he a great scorer? No, he wasn't......but he was a good one.
Was he a great rebounding SF? No, he wasn't......but he was a [really] good one.
Was he a great playmaking SF? Here I'd hedge toward yes. Not Lebron-level, or Bird-level either; but REALLY damn good in this regard. A stronger feature than his scoring or rebounding, imo.
Was he a great defensive SF? Duh.

Add all those things up, and this becomes somewhat the ultimate utility knife, and someone who is pretty portable on excellent teams, too. He's got the rep of the GOAT #2 for how he meshed with Jordan to form a dynasty.
He didn't mesh half-bad [at least in terms of play-style] with a contender/near-contender Rockets team, despite being arguably past his prime.
Then he meshed well as a MAJOR contributor with a contender-level Blazer team [despite being more definitively past his prime].

The end result has left him 13th all-time in playoff WS (NBA and ABA) and 8th in playoff VORP [since 1973]; he's 45th and 24th, respectively, in the rs in those metrics.
In his late prime and early post-prime, his league rank in RAPM was 6th in '97, 21st in '98, tied for 30th in '99, still solid [+2.5] in '00.
His rs pseudo-APM rank in '94-'96 were 18th, 5th, and 4th in the league.

And overall 15 seasons of actual "value added" for his career.


2nd vote: Jason Kidd
Let me be the first to break the ice on another longevity giant. I could be swayed off of him. As I said above there are a number of names I'm tossing around, and this region of my list is very fluid. Although I'd like to see Pippen get this spot, I'd be more or less content with any one of Baylor, Kidd, Harden, Havlicek, or Gilmore, too.


3rd vote: Elgin Baylor
Have been tossing around a lot of names [the circa-30 region of my ATL is VERY much a floating order.....I could see going a lot of different ways]. But I've decided I'm going with Baylor.
I think he's often dinged [around here] for being clearly a tier below his teammate Jerry West.......but West went in 18 places ago, so I don't think it's unreasonable at all to give Elgin some serious consideration here.

Ironically, I feel like his '62 campaign in particular exemplifies how good he was. This was the year he was mostly away from the team in service for the Army Reserves: so he didn't get to work-out or practice with the team, and only got to play a limited number of games [when allowed away]. Fun story as to how big a deal Baylor was to fans: apparently the box-office would get calls ahead of Laker games asking if Baylor was playing that night......and games he dressed for averaged ~3,000 more fans [iirc] than the ones he missed.

Despite the unusual circumstances, Baylor averaged an absurd 38.3/18.6/4.6 per game.
Yes, pace was crazy. But still, even in pace adjusted per 100 possessions this came to an estimated 33.6 pts (@ +1.34% rTS), 16.3 reb, 4.1 ast, while playing a ridiculous 44.4 mpg.
And it's hard to ascribe only small impact to this: the Lakers were 17-15 (which would be on pace for 43-44 wins in an 82-game season) without him, but 37-11 (on pace for just over 63 wins in an 82-game season) with him. Adding 20 wins to an already decent team is no small achievement (I believe the SRS difference was similar in proportion; like +4 or thereabouts iirc).

This is also the year Baylor averaged 40.6 ppg (@ +3.1% rTS), 17.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in the NBA Finals against Russell and the Celtics, taking them to 7 games (and losing game 7 by just 3 pts). This was the series in which [in game 5] Baylor scored an efficient 61 pts, while also grabbing 22 rebound [no one else not named Bill Russell was in within even 10 rebounds of him] in a 5-pt Laker victory.

And overall he's just got a lot of years in which he was really filling that stat-sheet, respectable WOWYR for this stage of the project, too. Led the Lakers to an unlikely finals appearance in his rookie year with really no noteworthy supporting cast, a number of accolades, and steady high-praise from contemporaries.
It's robust enough of a resume I've decided to go with him here.


I'm not quite ready for Reggie Miller yet, despite him being one of my all-time favorite players (I wore #31 for my highschool team, after Reggie Miller). If it comes to a runoff between Harden and anyone, I'll side with Harden EXCEPT against Havlicek......there I'm [for now] going with John by a hair.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:20 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:I'm going to be honest and say I have a really hard time even putting Kawhi in my top 40 right now. I mean if I have to choose between having a guy like Reggie Miller for 15 years or having 4 years of prime Kawhi where he misses around 55 rs games(and also has one of his ps runs cut short by injury) and another couple years where he's a terrific 3&D guy I think I'd much rather build around Reggie. I think its way too soon to say Kawhi is really that much better than a guy like Reggie that his 4 best years make Reggie's 8-10 more years obsolete. Probably more so when you consider he is one of the more passive leadership/chemistry guys we've ever seen for a #1 though I give him credit for being able to raise his game in the playoffs(usually).


Yeah, I'm right there with you. For starters I'm not quite as high on his peak as many around here ["peak" refers to a season, not just a playoff series or two, after all; and thus I'm skeptical '19 is his peak, fwiw]; add to this I tend toward longevity as a big consideration, and I value the rs more than most.......

His leadership intangibles [or lack there of] have been getting some discussion of late, but tbh that's just the icing on the cake as far as his standing on my ATL. Definitely not in my top 40 as of yet (though he did likely crack my top 50 as of this past season).

Which, for the record, if it should come to a runoff/Condorcet ruling on Kawhi versus......well, pretty much anyone he might conceivably be facing in any thread in the near future, I'll state publicly right here that my vote goes to the other guy, whether that "other guy" be Pippen, Baylor, Harden, Kidd, Havliceck, Miller, Gilmore, Barry, Drexler......again, pretty much anyone who might come up in the near future. Against Isiah Thomas is pretty much the only guy I might have to give some hard thought to.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:25 am

Thru post #16:

James Harden - 3 (DQuinn1575, Dr Positivity, Joao Saraiva)
Elgin Baylor - 2 (Hal14, penbeast0)
Kawhi Leonard - 1 (Dutchball97)
John Havlicek - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Scottie Pippen - 1 (trex_8063)
Reggie Miller - 1 (Doctor MJ)


Probably about 22-23 hours left for this one.
btw---Good idea to maybe state your favorite between Harden and Baylor, if it’s not already clear from your votes.


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"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#18 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:30 am

I still have Harden just slightly above Baylor. Had Baylor come into the league a few years earlier and not had the injury problems I'd have him quite a bit higher.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#19 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:38 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:I'm going to be honest and say I have a really hard time even putting Kawhi in my top 40 right now. I mean if I have to choose between having a guy like Reggie Miller for 15 years or having 4 years of prime Kawhi where he misses around 55 rs games(and also has one of his ps runs cut short by injury) and another couple years where he's a terrific 3&D guy I think I'd much rather build around Reggie. I think its way too soon to say Kawhi is really that much better than a guy like Reggie that his 4 best years make Reggie's 8-10 more years obsolete. Probably more so when you consider he is one of the more passive leadership/chemistry guys we've ever seen for a #1 though I give him credit for being able to raise his game in the playoffs(usually).


So here's the thing for me:

I'm right there with you putting Miller over Kawhi, and I feel the same way about others above Kawhi and I'm honestly not sure if I'd have him in my Top 40.

But I look at the Harden vs Kawhi comparison, and I see clear arguments for Kawhi over Harden given the sheer quantity and quality of great playoff time he's given. They've played a pretty comparable amount of minutes, and Kawhi's pretty clearly got the edge in what he's done. Yes he's got more than he would have in the early years because he was on the Spurs, and the same is true for Harden. Want to argue San Antonio gives him more of a "winning bias" inflation? Okay, so I guess the smaller number of true prime years were just that much better that Kawhi ranks ahead of Harden by playoff career PER, WS, VORP, etc?

I'm not saying that means we should vote Kawhi right now, because I'd rather not, but I think people might overrate the scale of his longevity issues based on what I might call a RS-oriented perspective. Not that they personally only care about the regular season, but that it really shapes their notion of longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 

Post#20 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:43 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
So here's the thing for me:

I'm right there with you putting Miller over Kawhi, and I feel the same way about others above Kawhi and I'm honestly not sure if I'd have him in my Top 40.

But I look at the Harden vs Kawhi comparison, and I see clear arguments for Kawhi over Harden given the sheer quantity and quality of great playoff time he's given. They've played a pretty comparable amount of minutes, and Kawhi's pretty clearly got the edge in what he's done. Yes he's got more than he would have in the early years because he was on the Spurs, and the same is true for Harden. Want to argue San Antonio gives him more of a "winning bias" inflation? Okay, so I guess the smaller number of true prime years were just that much better that Kawhi ranks ahead of Harden by playoff career PER, WS, VORP, etc?

I'm not saying that means we should vote Kawhi right now, because I'd rather not, but I think people might overrate the scale of his longevity issues based on what I might call a RS-oriented perspective. Not that they personally only care about the regular season, but that it really shapes their notion of longevity.


I feel like Harden's done enough in the rs to still have a gap there. Kawhi's main edge in my mind is the 2019 run but I think its fairly obvious that his supporting cast was really good in that run. I think most agree that Kawhi's defense isn't really close to what it used to be since 2017 either. So Harden has 8 really strong regular seasons and has made a couple wcf while usually getting knocked out by Curry''s Warriors. Kawhi has the ring and is generally the better playoff performer on average plus two dpoy's. So it is somewhat close but I still favor Harden by a decent margin. I mean let's not forget how good he has been in the last 4-5 years. Top 2 in mvp voting 4 times I believe while Kawhi has never really even come close to winning one and does miss a lot of games.

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