Doctor MJ wrote:.
There's something you brought up like 10+ threads ago I meant to reply to, but it fell on the back-burner and I've been busy, yada yada.....
It was wrt how I consider longevity/meaningful longevity, seasons as a "B-list" star or whatever; in general, how I valuate
cumulative achievement. Specifically you asked if there was a player who was a B-list star [to recap: we'd alluded to "B-list" as meaning a roughly All-NBA 2nd/3rd Team level player] for 100 years, would he be my GOAT? Or for that matter, a player who was merely a league-average player racking up cumulative stats for 100 years?
For the guy who was an average player for 100 years, NO. He's not even remotely within sniffing distance of my GOAT.
For the guy who was an actual B-list star for a century? Short answer, idk [maybe]. I would say he's definitely on my "Mount Rushmore".
These are obviously such extreme [and unrealistic] hypotheticals, it's hard to conceptualize.
While I don't base my ATL on a formula, I have multiple formulas that I use as tools for "ball-parking" players.....from which I then utilize personal impression/eye-test, context, more advanced impact metrics [where available], era impressions and considerations, etc to further inform my placement of players.
I became concerned that some of these formulas overvalue longevity [this even before our discussion], and decided to "calibrate" some of them against seasons played. Now it should go without saying that I aimed to "calibrate" them against
realistic longevity titans (19-20 seasons), not 100.
But still, I'll share some results.....
One family of formulas we'll call "Family A", which includes
a lot of inputs [which will be alluded to below, when I describe our hypothetical players]--->for that reason I think it's probably the more "useful" or "accurate" of the formula families I'll cite here. There are FIVE versions in this family [let's call them A1-A5], that vary [at times only slightly] in terms of how certain factors are weighed, or how eras are weighed.
The other family we'll call "Family B". This family is based entirely on PER and WS/48 (because they're the two rate metrics that go all the way back to '52), in terms of value above "replacement level".
I've defined "replacement level" as a PER of 13.5 and WS/48 of .078 [for the regular season] and 12.5 and .064 respectively for the playoffs [accounting for the typical playoff drop-off seen for most higher end players]. Modifiers were added within the formula such that an average PER [15] would be "worth" the same as an average WS/48 [.100]. Playoff minutes are weighted 3.25x heavier than rs minutes.....and in this way it attempts to calculate cumulative value above replacement.
There are FOUR versions of this family [B1-B4]: B1 utilizes raw PER and WS/48 values. B2 uses terms framed in
standard deviations above/(below) average (you may recall my studies pertaining to SD-scaled PER and WS/48). B3 is the same is B1, except weighted against my own numerical era rating [admittedly subjective, though not without a lot of thought put into it]. B4 is the same as B2, except rated against era.
So anyway, I introduced some of these calibrations for long careers to create a new version for A1 (let's call it A1b), B2 (B2b), and B4 (B4b). I'll share the results for A1 and A1L, B2 and B2L, and B4 and B4L.
So we're clear on the hypothetical players we're talking about (pay attention, as these details will hint at what is included in "Family A").....
The "average player for 100 years" has averaged 75 games/year [that's 7500 rs games] at 24 mpg with a career rs PER of 15.0 and WS/48 of .100 [that's 375 career rs WS--->
over 100 more than Kareem], and an individual rDRTG of +/- 0 for teams that averaged a .500 win%.
He's played in 700 career playoff games for teams that have averaged a .430 win%; he's been to the finals 7 times and has 3 rings [always as a "consistently played role player", though he has never won FMVP].
In these 700 playoff games his career playoff PER is 14.5 and WS/48 is .085 while averaging again 24 mpg.
He's never varied far from his "average player" status, such that his PEAK statistical season was a PER of 15.5 and WS/48 of .105 while averaging 27 mpg. His PEAK scoring season is 11.0 ppg, and his career avg is 10.2 ppg.
His WOWY is neutral.
He's never received an All-Star selection, nor any other media-awarded accolade.
He's scored over 76,000 career pts, has 36,000 career reb, and over 16,000 career ast [so he's #1 all-time in all of these; far and away so in all except assists].
All of this has occurred in a "competitive era".
In A1 [non-calibrated], this hypothetical player would come in 7th; though in the calibrated version [A1b] he's only *49th.
*That may seem like a huge drop, but again bear in mind the calibration is geared toward more realistic career lengths, and thus usually doesn't result in such huge shifts in position [particularly in higher reaches of the list, where differences between adjacent places aren't so minute]. For example, A1 has John Stockton at #23; A1b only drops him to #25. Dirk is #15 on A1, drops to #20 on A1b. Kareem is stationary at #3 on both formulas, as is Lebron at #1.
Formula B2 ranks him #37 all-time, and B4 ranks him #34. However, B2b ranks him only #117; B4b ranks him #104.
Our "B-List star" is defined as follows:
He was durable and played 75 games/year [7500 rs games] averaging 33 mpg for teams that [on average] had a .535 win% (because he's better than the average player, he lifted more).
In said 7500 rs games he averaged out to a 22.0 PER and .194 WS/48 (just over 1000 career rs WS,
more than 3.6x what Kareem has), and a career rs individual rDRTG of -1.
He varied little from his B-list status, such that his PEAK statistical season was a 23.0 PER, .210 WS/48 in 35 mpg.
His peak scoring season was 22.0 ppg, though his career avg is 18.0 ppg.
He's got 135,000 career pts, 55,000 career reb, and >42,000 career ast (i.e.
far and away #1 all-time in each).
His WOWY is very good [but not "great"].
He played in 825 playoff games (with a .461 win%), going to the finals 8 times, winning 4 rings, and 1 FMVP.
He averaged 36 mpg in the playoffs, with a career 19.9 PER and .170 WS/48 in the playoffs (his career playoff WS are
nearly double Lebron's).
He was an NBA All-Star
85 times, All-NBA
70 times (30 2nd Team, 40 3rd Team), and has a 0.500 MVP award shares to his credit.
All of this occurred in a competitive era, btw.
He is far and away [silly margins] #1 according to formula B1 and B2. By B1b and B2b, he is still #1 all-time, and by notable margins.......but no longer "silly" margins.
According to formula A1, he is again #1 by a fairly large margin.
However, by A1b, he is actually #2, just negligibly behind Lebron.
So idk, take those figures for what it's worth. I'm still not sure where I'd rank such bizarre and unrealistic players, but my estimates are as noted above.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
