RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 (Dolph Schayes)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 (Dolph Schayes) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 5:30 pm

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. ???

Isiah vs Kawhi
Regardless of who your picks are, please state your favorite between these two, as I suspect it may be needed.

We'll look to move on around noon or so (EST) on Saturday.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#2 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 6:14 pm

1. Kawhi Leonard - Highest peak left except for arguably Bill Walton (who has no longevity to speak of). Kawhi not having a ton of regular season production hurts his case and I understand this being a deciding factor against players with similar peaks and play-off production but there aren't many, if any, guys left that can match Kawhi in either of those things. Kawhi's peak is top 30, arguably even top 20, and he's 24th in play-off WS and 17th in play-off VORP.

2. Isiah Thomas - His best regular seasons and play-offs didn't quite line-up at the same time but he has nontheless produced multiple great regular seasons and post-seasons. This is a guy who led a team to back to back rings, while beating Bird's Celtics, Magic's Lakers and MJ's Bulls. At some point we're going to have to acknowledge how important he was for some great teams, while being really good.

3. Willis Reed - Similar regular longevity to Kawhi so not much of an issue for me at this point. Reed at his peak was also elite and he played a huge role on the way to 2 titles for the Knicks. His total play-off contributions aren't on the level of Kawhi or Isiah but I'd rather have Reed's relatively short prime over the longer careers of guys like Pierce, Allen or Pau Gasol. Artis Gilmore vs Reed is an interesting discussion to me. Gilmore has better longevity but his best seasons and most of his play-off succes came in the ABA. I don't regard the ABA as a much weaker league than the NBA but him not having as much succes once the leagues merged makes me a bit hesitant to go for him already.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#3 » by Hal14 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 6:22 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Isiah Thomas
2. Kevin McHale
3. Willis Reed

One thing that's interesting about Isiah is that during the 87-88 through 90-91 seasons (the years Isiah had the most team success) he somehow got significantly less votes in both MVP voting and all NBA teams, despite the fact that his stats across the board were just as good - if anything, maybe a slight dip but not enough to justify such a significant drop in MVP and all NBA votes - especially considering he was now having much greater team success - and considering he continued making the all star team every year. And typically when a guy has more team success, they get more MVP/all NBA votes..not less.

Below you'll find the year, followed by Isiah's finish in MVP voting, followed by which all NBA team he made

*Also keep in mind there was no all NBA 3rd team in 81-82

82 - 17th in MVP - didn't make all NBA team
83 - 16th in MVP - all NBA 2nd team
84 - 5th in MVP - all NBA 1st team
85 - 9th in MVP - all NBA 1st team
86 - 9th in MVP - all NBA 1st team
87 - 8th in MVP - all NBA 2nd team
88 - 12th in MVP - didn't make all NBA team
89 - 17th in MVP - didn't make all NBA team
90 - 13th in MVP - didn't make all NBA team
91 - 13th in MVP - didn't make all NBA team

My theory as to why he all of a sudden had such a big dip in MVP/all NBA votes despite much greater team success is because people truly started to hate the Pistons beginning with the 87 ECF finals, which was a grueling series between the Celtics and Pistons. In 87, the Celtics were a blue collar team that was very well liked, their players got lots of votes for awards, evidenced by Bird winning 3 straight MVPs in 84-86..and in 87, both Bird and McHale finished top 4 in MVP voting.

Then in the 87 ECF, this happened:



Following the 87 ECF, the Pistons became the most hated team in the league. Not only for brawling with the Celtics in the ECF, but also because of how physical and borderline dirty they played overall. The next year in 87-88 - the Pistons were officially established as a hated team. All Pistons players saw a big dip in MVP/all NBA votes - especially Isiah who was considered the ring leader of the Pistons. The other guy on the Pistons besides Isiah who was seen as the poster boy for the Bad Boys image was Laimbeer. If you look at Laimbeer and his all NBA selections and all star appearances before the 87-88. season and after, you'll notice the same discrepancy.

Isiah was top 10 in MVP voting 4 years in a row from 83-84 through 86-87. He made 1st or 2nd team all NBA five years in a row from 82-83 through 86-7. Then somehow magically, the votes he received plummeted from 87-8 through 90-91 despite the fact that he put up similar stats, was still an all star every year and had much greater team success. It's because of bad boy image. People didn't like him and they didn't like Laimbeer. Dumars (despite the fact that hew as on the hated Pistons team) was more of a nice guy, of anyone on those Pistons teams, he had the best image and was the least likely guy on the team to mix it up and get in someone's face, least likely Piston to throw a punch, etc. That's why a) he finished with the same ranking in MVP voting as Isiah in both 89 and 90 and b) Dumars made all NBA third team in 90 over Isiah despite the fact that Isiah was clearly the better player and was the heart and soul of the team, according to this article and many others:

https://exnba.com/articles-news/isiah-thomas-on-who-could-be-bad-boy-on-80s-pistons/

Isiah made all NBA 2nd team in 82-83, while finishing 16th in MVP voting. And that was BEFORE there was a significant bias against the Pistons. So I'm actually being conservative here by saying that he if we remove the bias against the Bad Boys Pistons and specifically Isiah and Laimbeer, then this is what Isiah would have achieved:

-All NBA team (either 1st or 2nd team) 9 years in a row
-Top 10 in MVP voting 5 years in a row

What player still left on the board can compete with that?

Still not convinced Isiah deserves consideration here? How about:

-12 time all-star (in a 13 year career)
-1 time NBA Finals MVP
-2 time NBA champion
-2 times was the best player on an NBA championship winning team (Isiah led the Pistons in minutes, points, assists and steals - in both the regular season and playoffs in both 88-89 and 89-90)
-Only player ever (other than Magic and Oscar) to average over 19 PPG and over 9 APG for his career
-Joined a Pistons team which was on the brink of extinction - there was talk about the team moving to a different city - or possibly shutting down entirely - they went 21-61 the year before Isiah joined the team. They improved their win total by a whopping 18 games in Isiah's rookie year. 2 years later they made the playoffs and 6 years after that they were champions.

Still not convinced? Perhaps you missed this piece of NBA history:



Isiah with 43 points in game 6 of the 88 NBA finals - against the Showtime Lakers who were in their dynasty. He scored 25 of those points in the 3rd quarter on a severely injured ankle. One of the most heroic performances of any NBA game, especially one in the NBA finals. If not for the phantom foul call on Laimbeer:
a) this would have been arguably the greatest performance in a NBA finals clinging game in history
b) would have been 3 titles in a row for the Pistons
c) Isiah would have been finals MVP in 88

Even Lakers coach Pat Riley calls it a phantom foul:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2103545-pat-riley-admits-84-lakers-benefited-from-phantom-foul-vs-detroit-pistons

To anyone who says "oh Laimbeer got away with other fouls so he deserved to get called for that one"...no, that's BS because a) refs hated Laimbeer, if anything they were out to get him and are more likely to favor the Lakers with calls since the Lakers were showtime, they were the much more liked team and had a much better image than the Pistons and b) the Phantom Foul was called with 14 seconds left in the game - it was an elimination game in the NBA finals. You're comparing apples to oranges if you say Laimbeer got calls in the 2nd quarter of this game so it's ok that the phantom foul was called. Obviously a foul being called on a dude attempting a game winning shot with 14 seconds left - that call carries MUCH more weight and significance than a call in the 2nd quarter.

Also, someone posted in the other thread something like "oh, even if the foul wasn't called on Laimbeer, if Kareem misses that show there was a Lakers player in position for the offensive rebound and put-back. To that I say, no! Look at this video, pause it at the :41 mark because that is the exact moment this whistle blows for the foul. At that moment, neither team looks to be in better position for the rebound - if anything, the Pistons look to be in slightly better rebounding position if you pause it there. If you let the video keep going another second or 2 after the whistle then yes, the Lakers player under the basket is in better position to get a rebound but it was way after the whistle at that point so why would the Pistons keep going for the rebound?

And no, if you think that magical game vs the Lakers was a fluke and if you think that was the only iconic performance by Isiah, you're wrong:

https://theundefeated.com/features/pistons-isiah-thomas-dropped-16-points-in-94-seconds-1984-nba-playoffs-against-knicks/

The bigger the stage, the more pressure is on, the better Isiah delivers. Something you can't say about pretty much any player left on the board at this point.

McHale - did everything you could want from a PF. He could score (with more effective post up moves than just about any player ever), he could rebound and is also one of the best post defenders of all time. He beat opposing bigs down the floor and had defensive versatility (at times would defend the 3, 4 and 5)..oh yeah and he won 3 championships, 5 NBA finals appearances. I think a good comparison for McHale is Pippen. Both had really good team success while playing as the no. 2 guy alongside one of the best players ever (Bird, Jordan), neither has great longevity but both had a solid 3 or 4 years where they were arguably the best in the world at their position and a legit top 5 or 6 player in the league. I think who was better between McHale and Pippen is pretty debatable (McHale a better scorer, about even on D, maybe a slight edge on D for Pippen). Pippen got in several rounds ago in this poll, so right here seems about right for McHale.

Willis Reed - Frazier and Ewing both got voted in for this thing a long time ago. Yet Reed is arguably better than both of them. Reed was finals MVP twice, whereas Frazier (while playing on same team as Reed) and Ewing both won finals MVP 0 times.
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#4 » by Odinn21 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 6:41 pm

41. Isiah Thomas
I think Zeke gets too much stick with modern evaluation techniques. It's true that Thomas' on court production was getting lower while the team was getting better. But it's hard to say there's a direct correlation. It's just that, it can be interpreted something like Garnett scoring 18.8 ppg in 2008 for the Boston team. Lower than his usual prime average and already on the decline. But it still mattered greatly. Also he was one of the best playoff performers around.
When he wasn't fully healthy in 1990-91 season, the Pistons went 31-17 (+3.8 mov) with him and 19-15 without him. That's pretty significant.

42. Russell Westbrook
As I kept saying, I was gravitating towards Westbrook in recent days, I think it's time to include him.
This is what I wrote about him in the #34 thread when I thought he should start getting some traction.
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:BTW, I know that he's not the most highly regarded player in here but I think Russell Westbrook should be getting some mentions at this point. I find it interesting that if 2016-17 season never happened, his career and him as a player would be regarded better.
I mean he was the best player on 2015-16 Thunder, he was the best player on the team that went 3-1 up against the 73W team. Sure, blowing such a lead is still an issue but;
Durant was slightly better on offense than Westbrook in regular season. Their impact in their given roles were almost tied up.
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm?id=-1861361865
And Westbrook was the better player in the playoffs.

Another thing is;
I always look at impact numbers with on court production and roles in mind. Playing more minutes, or carrying bigger scoring load, etc, these things matter so much. Westbrook was still a positive impact player in 2016-17 season with that massive on court production.
I just don't see the point of penalizing the player for having a sh.t team around him.
Could Westbrook take less shots / handle the ball less on 2017 Thunder? Sure.
Would that be beneficial to the team and would they do better? Very doubtful.


43. Ray Allen
I'll update my message when I have the third.
Haven't decided. Some names I'm considering right now;
Paul Pierce, Robert Parish, Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Gary Payton, Adrian Dantley, Elvin Hayes, Kawhi Leonard, Dikembe Mutombo, Dolph Schayes, Dwight Howard.

Right now, I guess I'm closer to Ray Allen than anybody on there but I'm open to suggestions / discussions.

Kawhi Leonard is easily the best player left on the board but there are many other options that can top his 2015-16 and 2019-20 seasons.
2016-17 and 2018-19 seasons are what makes him but 2016-17 had a tough ending and 2018-19 is the only thing that'd separate him as clearly better than the other players.

It's important to note that this seasonal evaluation process is easily affected by what happened before. If we compare 2020 Kawhi Leonard to 2001 Ray Allen or 2011 Dwight Howard, the immediate answer would likely be Leonard but that probably will be coming from his 2019 stature.
I'm not saying it doesn't matter entirely. Surely it matters. I'm just pointing out this because I don't think his prime duration still fall short enough to consider other players even though he's clearly the best.

Edit; Just changed my 3rd selection as Ray Allen if I'll forget it. His 2001 and 2005 seasons were epitome of his quality. Peak, prime level and duration, longevity, they are all there.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#5 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 7:15 pm

41. Dolph Schayes
-12x all nba(7x 1st)
-1x nba champ
-Very good all around player, 9x top 5 in rebounding with good outside shot
-top 10 in scoring 11 times with career ts+ of 108 which is about 4% over league average
-known to be a solid defender from what I have learned about him
-posted very strong playoff scoring even after the shot clock(though efficiency was erratic)
-31st in career win shares

42. Isiah Thomas
-At this point I think the simple fact that he was the best player on a very near dynasty has to be recognized which is a claim very few other players can make. I'm also fairly high on his ability to run a team and his intangibles as a leader. His intensity on the court I think was one of the defining traits of those Pistons teams along with Daly's personality which can't be overlooked either. There's a good reason that Daly was chosen to be the hc of the dream team and its imo because he was widely seen as the best hc in the league at the time and a guy who wouldn't put up with bs from anybody.
-I also want to remention some things I said in earlier thread about Isiah's often perceived 'decline' being imo in large part due to the Pistons going from near the top of the league in pace to the very bottom in the period from 84-88 and Dumars taking over a lot of ballhandling duties on the team. So I think Isiah became overlooked also due to other pgs such as Stockton, Price and KJ also coming on the scene in the 88-90 period who had flashier numbers.
-2x champ
-1x fmvp while averaging 27.6/5.2/7.0 on 63% ts
-led Pistons to 5 straight ecf from 87-91 and 3 straight finals(led them in vorp every year from 83-90, led all 3 finals teams in playoff vorp)
-5x all nba(3x 1st team)
-7x top 15 in mvp voting(4x top 10, high of 5th)
-career playoff bpm of 6.0, 18th all time ahead of guys like Dirk and Duncan
-great playmaker, set league record for assists in 85
-reasonably long prime of 8 years imo with a few other decent seasons
-51st all time in vorp
-5x top 10 in steals per game

43. Chauncey Billups
-very good all around guard also known for being clutch shooter in playoffs
-strong floor general
-led Pistons teams which made 5 straight ecf in rs win shares every year and in vorp 3x
-led 04 title Pistons in rs/ps wins shares and also won fmvp
-led league in ps win shares in 05 while losing finals in 7 games
-joins the Nuggets in 09 and they go from being swept in the first round the year prior to losing in 6 games in the wcf to the Lakers the following year
-respectably long prime of 9 years imo which isn't that short
-3x all nba(1x 2nd, 2x 3rd)
-2x all defensive 2nd team
-4x top 15 in mvp voting(high of 5th)
-43rd in career vorp
-30th in career playoff vorp
-efficient scorer with career ts+ of 109(4.5% above league average)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jan 7, 2021 7:56 pm

Like last time, I am a long way from being certain of my pick here.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#7 » by Baski » Thu Jan 7, 2021 8:19 pm

1. Isiah Thomas

12x All star
5x All NBA
2x NBA Champion, both as best player and leader.

An all-time great floor general that could turn on the scoring gear at times. He was quite the spectacle in the early years when he was making All NBA 1st teams, though the competition for those spots wasn't as tough as it would becone later with the emergence of Jordan, Stockton, Drexler and KJ.

I buy into the theory that his underwhelming individual accolades relative to his peers were partially a product of the perception of him as a dirty player. Partially because of the multiple GOAT tier stars in the 80s, he was clearly worse than any other "dynasty leader" that he was compared to ala Bird/Jordan/Magic.

And even though he was far from the best defender of the team, he embodied their calling card very well as a leader. We've held him out long enough. It's time.

2. Dolph Schayes
3. Dwight Howard


In case I get ghosted this would be my order of the guys I see getting traction:


Kevin McHale
Bill Walton
Kawhi Leonard
Bob Cousy
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#8 » by LA Bird » Fri Jan 8, 2021 12:23 am

On Kawhi: He has 4 superstar level seasons. This is how the board rated him at the end of each season

• 2016 Kawhi was behind 2016 Westbrook (POY)
• 2017 Kawhi was behind 2017 Westbrook (POY)
• 2019 Kawhi was behind 2017 Westbrook (Peak project)
• 2020 Kawhi was 8th in the year behind Butler and Doncic (POY)

That was the majority opinion of voters on this board - Kawhi's prime seasons were never considered to be a next level tier above prime Westbrook. So why are people voting for Kawhi clearly ahead of Westbrook now on the all time list when he is also behind in career longevity? Kawhi voters will point to his DPOY and superior advanced stats but none of that is new information. This board knew at the time then what we know now and, on average, still voted prime Westbrook slightly higher. It would be like if we voted for LeBron over Davis for 2015 POY at the end of that season but then reversed it a couple years later because 'Davis dominated LeBron in PER and WS/48'. The stats have been there all along and they never changed. No new data has come out in the last year to justify prime Kawhi being suddenly far better than prime Westbrook. The only difference I can see is that Kawhi has a much better overall career narrative as a multi-time champion so his individual seasons now get retrospectively upgraded to fit his new reputation as a winner while Westbrook's are downgraded because he is not popular anymore.

To be fair, if you think Kawhi had multiple seasons as a top 20 peak all time based on his postseason PER and WS/48 and you want to vote for him here, that's fine since you are being consistent between your seasonal and career ranking. But most of this board clearly don't think that highly of Kawhi's peak or his other prime seasons. There are several players still remaining who peaked higher than 2020 Butler and 2020 Doncic and those two were voted above 2020 Kawhi just two months ago in the POY project. Prime Kawhi is not untouchable and it seems a bit inconsistent when you compare where each of the individual Kawhi superstar seasons were ranked and where his overall career is about to go in this all time list.

Sidenote and mini complaint: This board often slam casual fans for using the ringz argument but a title was basically the only difference between 2020 Kawhi going #8 in POY and 2019 Kawhi going #1. He had similar box score stats (RS and PO) over the two years and he was actually a better defender and passer in 2020. If the Sixers hadn't choked in the playoffs without Embiid, 2019 Kawhi goes out in the second round just like 2020 Kawhi and few would think of voting him #1 POY with his load managed regular season. I personally think Kawhi's 2019 season was overrated and 2020 was underrated and have both in the 3-5 range for the year.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#9 » by penbeast0 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 12:32 am

LA Bird wrote:...

That was the majority opinion of voters on this board - Kawhi's prime seasons were never considered to be a next level tier above prime Westbrook. So why are people voting for Kawhi clearly ahead of Westbrook now on the all time list when he is also behind in career longevity?


Because we've been watching Westbrook in Washington? Note: Mainly being a smartass and not a Kawhi voter, but while I think Westbrook's role in Washington's troubles is overrated by other Wizard fans, he's a frustrating star.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 12:40 am

1st vote: Pau Gasol
Another decent star with outstanding longevity, Pau entered the league at age 21 and was immediately probably a top 30 player in the league (basically borderline All-Star level player): averaged 17.6/8.9/2.7 @ +4.6% rTS and 2.1 bpg, though admittedly for a terrible team, and kinda turnover-prone as a rookie. tbf, it wasn't much of a cast around him: Shane Battier is a very underrated player (though perhaps cast too high when the 2nd [or arguably 1st??] best player on a team); after that it was Jason Williams and Stromile Swift as 3rd and 4th, and mostly trash behind that.
So overall....pretty good coming out party for the rookie.

In '06 he averaged 20.4/8.9/4.6 @ +1.9% rTS with 1.9 bpg for a team that won 49 games and had the 5th-rated +3.74 SRS (this was with Shane Battier, Mike Miller, an OLD Eddie Jones, and a bunch of spare parts, btw). They were swept in the first round, though due to a brutal WC [and even more brutal SW division that contained the defending champs and the eventual WC champ] and the stupid playoff structure of the time they drew the 60-win Mavericks team (you know, the one that would win the conference). Pau did struggle a bit in the series.

If you somehow blend these two seasons, you get an idea of what "average" P.Gasol was in Memphis.

But in '08 Kobe was barking at the Lakers to either make them a contender or he'd walk, so they bring in Pau......and he almost immediately meshes as the perfect Dick Grayson to Kobe's Bruce Wayne, making the Lakers an instant contender.
Pau would have likely his three BEST seasons as a Laker [from '09-'11], collectively averaging 18.7/10.3/3.4 on approximately +5(ish)% rTS, good turnover economy, and decent defense during those years. They'd win two titles, with Pau playing pretty good in both runs ('10 in particular: 19.6 ppg @ +5.6% rTS, 11.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.1 bpg, and only 1.9 topg.....that's a really nice line).

He'd continue to have relevant seasons all the way out to his 17th season (age 37), ultimately sitting 30th in NBA/ABA history in career rs WS (and currently tied for 40th all-time [w/ Clyde Drexler] in ps WS). He's actually ahead of Chauncey Billups in rs WS [and WS love Chauncey], though is behind Chauncey in ps WS.

He lacks All-NBA accolades more because his prime overlaps that of Tim Duncan [#5 on this list], Kevin Garnett [#11 on this list], and Dirk Nowitzki [#15 on this list]---as well as much of Lebron James [#1 on this list] and other sporadically excellent forwards such as Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, and Chris Bosh----than from him lacking All-NBA chops.
I've little doubt that if his competition was John Havlicek, Billy Cunningham, Truck Robinson, Gus Johnson, Bob Love, and Elvin Hayes......Pau would have a few more than he does [likely including at least one 1st Team nod].

At any rate, I think he at least deserves serious consideration at this stage.


2nd vote: Paul Pierce
Will try to write more later, honestly.


3rd vote: Dolph Schayes (EDITED [again! :oops: ]
Changed for the second time this thread! Sorry, this section of my list is very murky and fluid. Looking it over (and adding in consideration of his one NBL season in '49), I'm having a hard time justifying ranking anyone else above him. Some of the reasoning is noted in post 39 of this [#41] thread...



EDIT: Changed 3rd vote from Payton to Westbrook. The more I'm looking hard at Payton, the more I feel like I can't justify him above some of these other players. I think I used to be just overly high on Payton, but I'm sliding on him, even as the project is in progress.
(old/null vote): Russell Westbrook
I've been critical of him at times, and I still think his '17 MVP was undeserved. But he's accrued a pretty impressive 12-year career at this point, and certainly has to be in the running at this point. As I look at his resume closely, I may even opt to move him up in my rotation; we'll see....
EDIT2: Though I'm waffling again and thinking of switching back to Payton. :-?


(old/null vote): Gary Payton
Here's a guy whose defense is likely overrated [at least by his late-prime], but whose offense is likely universally underrated. And once more excellent longevity. Note WS will not love this guy due to mediocre shooting efficiency, yet he is still 28th all-time in rs WS. He's 26th all-time [well....since 1973] in rs VORP, too. Will try to write more later....


EDIT: if it comes to it, I'll go with Isiah over Kawhi [slim margin].
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 12:53 am

LA Bird wrote:
Sidenote and mini complaint: This board often slam causal fans for using the ringz argument but a title was basically the only difference between 2020 Kawhi going #8 in POY and 2019 Kawhi going #1. He had similar box score stats (RS and PO) over the two years and he was actually a better defender and passer in 2020. If the Sixers hadn't choked in the playoffs without Embiid, 2019 Kawhi goes out in the second round just like 2020 Kawhi and few would think of voting him #1 POY with his load managed regular season. I personally think Kawhi's 2019 season was overrated and 2020 was underrated and have both in the 3-5 range for the year.



omg, I'm so on-board with the gist of this paragraph. That he won POY for '19 was one that sort of made me blink, and really illustrated the apparent disconnect I have with many others wrt how heavily they weigh the playoffs:

His playoff run may have been great, but with missed games factored into the equation, and noting how he coasted defensively all year [in the rs], I'm skeptical he was even a top 10 player during the rs.
How can I rate someone #1 for the year if he's not even top 10 for the larger sample?

And it's not like he was clearly far and away better than anyone else in the playoffs. Nikola Jokic had a helluva playoff run [albeit shorter], probably superior statistically, for example. And Kawhi's own teammate [Lowry] had a higher playoff RAPM according to gitlab (though I am skeptical of that source).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#12 » by Odinn21 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 1:50 am

trex_8063 wrote:1st vote: Pau Gasol

If I recall correctly, this project was about pro career in the US, we didn't have FIBA level tournaments to consider. If we had, Gasol would be definitely in my top 40, easy. I mean it might seem unfair to Artis Gilmore or some other player with serious traction but Gasol was basically Duncan of the FIBA international tournaments. I'm big on those performances.

---

As for, Leonard, I strongly agree. I was aware of the things LA Bird posted but didn't think of mentioning it explicitly. Kawhi Leonard over Russell Westbrook doesn't make much sense to me.
Also, I'd like to point out some contradictory opinions; Isiah Thomas get so much (too much IMO) for winning bias and there's a serious winning bias going on in favour of Leonard. The people who are doing this actively are just a few, not many. But that is the overall situation currently.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#13 » by Magic Is Magic » Fri Jan 8, 2021 4:12 am

I am placing my Vote for #41 ranking



1. Bob Cousy
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Dolph Schayes


1. Bob Cousy: What didn't this guy do? 13x All Star, 6x Champion, 8x Assist Leader, 1x MVP, and 10x 1st team All NBA. I see people are putting Baylor over Cousy and I'm not mad at it, Cousy did have the better team after all. But it's hard to argue against 6 rings to Baylor's zero. 6 vs 0 is huge, and of course Cousy's MVP which Baylor never won. Cousy was also top 3 in point scored for a total of 4x just like Baylor. This is a no brainer for me but Baylor was already voted in ahead of Cousy.

2. Kawhi would benefit a lot more if he didn't "load manage" and added to his longevity. After 2021 we will get a better idea if this changes but I doubt it going forward. However, he has done some extraordinary things such as winning back-to-back DPOY awards and 2x FMVP. If I recall correctly only Kawhi and Hakeem have ever achieved such a feat (Being a B2B DPOY winner and winner of 2x FMVP). His 2019 run was also very impressive: 31/9/4 on splits of 49/38/88 (very close to entire 50-40-90 run on over 30 ppg en route to a FMVP. Who here left to rank has done anything close to a Finals run on 31/9/4 with near 50-40-90 splits? I'm still waiting for this because I think the answer is no body.

If you value greatness on both ends of the ball then it would be hard to put many guys left ahead of Kawhi. He is elite on both ends, but again, his lack of longevity is hurting his resume along with him needing at least one regular season MVP or Scoring Title. Nearly all of the greats have them but him but I guess if we're voting in Ewing than peak doesn't matter that much so Kawhi should definitely be voted in.


3. Dolph Schayes: 12x All NBA 1st and 2nd team selections, 12 all-star selections (top tier level among who is left to have 12 and 12 of both). Top 5 in MVP 3x, Top 5 in Points scored 4x and a Champion (and likely FMVP winner too). It would be hard to argue against 12x all star selections and 12x all nba 1st/2nd team selections at this stage. For example, guys voted in before Dolph did less with these All NBA and All Star Selection metrics, such as Baylor with 10 and 11. Wade had 5 and 13. Pippen had 5 and 6. Frazier had 4 and 7. Again, Dolph was 12 and 12.

FYI: Kawhi's 2x Finals MVPs and 2x DPOY awards alone are already better accomplishments than what people voted before him ever did in their entire careers. Ewing = 0, Miller = 0, Baylor = 0, etc.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#14 » by Dutchball97 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 8:17 am

Boy am I going to be happy when Kawhi gets voted in. I've been voting for him for almost 15 rounds now because longevity (especially the regular season, which barely matters anymore) should be a secondary criteria next to how good they were and to how much success it led. Guys like Paul Pierce shouldn't be mentioned on the same tier as Kawhi just because he played a few more seasons.

When I think of winning bias in this project it'll always be people voting KG like 5th or 6th because they ASSUME he'd be able to win multiple titles in different circumstances instead of what he actually accomplished. I shouldn't be surprised Kawhi's actual great team results get marginalized because of stuff like him missing some regular season games and because some people don't like his personality.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#15 » by 70sFan » Fri Jan 8, 2021 9:28 am

I'm glad to see Gilmore in :)

Have anyone consider Paul Arizin and Bob McAdoo at this point? Both peaked quite high and their longevity aren't terrible.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#16 » by Odinn21 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 10:05 am

70sFan wrote:I'm glad to see Gilmore in :)

Have anyone consider Paul Arizin and Bob McAdoo at this point? Both peaked quite high and their longevity aren't terrible.

I think we're in a territory that we have too much to pick from.

Looks like #41 is between Thomas and Leonard, the current tally has Thomas as it.

Just look at the current tool to pick from right now;
Willis Reed
Kevin McHale
Russell Westbrook
Ray Allen
Paul Pierce
Robert Parish
Pau Gasol
Gary Payton
Adrian Dantley
Elvin Hayes
Dikembe Mutombo
Dolph Schayes
Dwight Howard
Chauncey Billups
Bob Cousy
Paul Arizin
Bob McAdoo

We could throw Alex English, Wes Unseld, Vince Carter, Dan Issel, Walt Bellamy to the mix.

Some of 'em may look weak options to consider but I also could be forgetting some serious candidates and we have at least 15 players those look very similar, very close to pick from and it'll get really scattered. It'll just boil down to ongoing traction most of the time.

---

It'll be interesting when we get to Ginobili and Parker BTW. Many tend to focus on how impactful Ginobili was but his body cracked under even the managed load he was playing through. The Spurs suffered from his injuries several times in the playoffs, and if you look at it, he wasn't the playoff performer of his reputation (mainly built on 2005 run). Those injuries caused him to underperform in the playoffs more often than not. Just go back to 2008 WCF and watch Spurs-Lakers series, his injury and his awful performance was the reason the Spurs lost so badly. With a healthy, properly functioning Ginobili, the Spurs team was a serious contender even with Duncan at the twilight of his offensive prime.
Parker OTOH, wasn't quite as impactful as Ginobili but his motor was definitely higher. He produced considerably more on the court though. And it wasn't like he lacked impact, he was in the top percentile 2 or 3 times in his career and he was consistently a positive impact player.

I'm sure Durant will surpass Parker in 2021 playoffs but as of now, Parker is #10 on all time playoff points leaderboard, nearly 1k points more than Ginobili. He's also #5 on all time playoff assists leaderboard.
Parker is quite underrated for a player that's top 10 two major categories in the playoffs and the issues Ginobili had usually goes overlooked, or unnoticed.

Sorry to skew this post as Ginobili vs. Parker. :D Just had these in my mind while typing some candidates for the current spot.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#17 » by Dutchball97 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 10:15 am

70sFan wrote:I'm glad to see Gilmore in :)

Have anyone consider Paul Arizin and Bob McAdoo at this point? Both peaked quite high and their longevity aren't terrible.


Arizin is around this range for me. I have him ahead of Cousy but behind Schayes so it'll be a couple spots before I'll vote him at least.

McAdoo honestly not sure. There are probably at least a couple bigs left ahead of him for me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#18 » by Dutchball97 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 10:35 am

On an unrelated note, how are people looking at Jokic for this list? Some people have started tentatively talking about AD and Giannis but the three of them are all very comparable in terms of total games in the play-offs along with their WS and VORP play-off totals. While Jokic clearly is the least accomplished of the three in terms of the regular season, I still see them in one tier. I've been quite clear about my disdain for focus on the regular season but even if you care about it, it's not like Jokic in the regular season is miles behind Giannis and AD either.

With AD and Giannis possibly coming up soon and nobody talking about Jokic yet I was wondering how others view them comparatively.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 8, 2021 2:25 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
42. Russell Westbrook


fwiw, I've just changed my 3rd vote to Westbrook, and could even see slipping him up higher. Awhile back I had Gary Payton in my early-mid 30s, though I think it was a hold-over from prior list orders. The more I look at him in comparison to some others, the more trouble I have with my placement of him. So I've bumped him [again] in favour of Westbrook.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #41 

Post#20 » by ZeppelinPage » Fri Jan 8, 2021 6:45 pm

ZeppelinPage wrote:1. Kawhi Leonard
2. Manu Ginobili
3. Ben Wallace


Quite surprised Kawhi is still up for voting--insanely productive, great playoffs performer that has the strongest prime left of any players available. Two-way impact on both sides--elite offense and outlier level defense on the perimeter. Ginobili is next for me--some fantastic playoff runs, great at just about everything on the court and should probably have the '05 Finals MVP. He is a little below Kawhi due to overall impact I believe Kawhi brings, but I do think it is close as Ginobili was an underrated defender. Ben Wallace was the most impactful modern defender by just about every metric. RPM has him graded as the highest DRPM of any player tracked, and PIPM is also particularly high on him. Anchored a top defense to the '04 Finals and routinely made superstar bigs have trouble ('05 Spurs for instance, nearly won the Finals from Duncan struggling quite a bit.) On film, Wallace was everywhere and his impact as the greatest modern defender is clear and easy to see.

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