RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 (Gary Payton)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 (Gary Payton) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:58 pm

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. ???


Probably looking at early evening (EST) on Sunday for a stop-time.
NOTE: probably wise to tell me your order on Pau Gasol/Kevin McHale/Manu Ginobili regardless of your picks...

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#2 » by Odinn21 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:07 am

48. Ray Allen
He usually led his teams to great offensive efficiencies. Defense was a weak point for him in general but his understated off-ball presence on offense kind of negates that. Peak, prime level and duration, longevity, he has it all.
This was what I wrote in the Pierce vs. Allen thread;
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:The strongest seasons among these 2 players;
2001, 2005 for Allen & 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 Pierce.
I'd probably take 2001 Allen as the best but that's almost a tie and Pierce's just better on sheer number of seasons.

In 2005 and 2006, they were near the top of their form and Pierce was just better. Allen was better on offense, his efficiency and off-ball play were just massive. But he was quite a negative impact on defense. Pierce was also good on offense even though not just as much, but his defensive level was just way better than Allen's level.

I don't think there's a significant difference between their prime duration or overall longevity. So, Pierce is ahead of Allen for me since his prime level was higher on average.


49. Adrian Dantley
His prime level is just too good at this point and his prime lasted long enough. I feel like he shouldn't be separated from Pierce by a tier, and he should be in the next tier right after George Gervin. This was what I wrote about him in the Pierce vs. Dantley thread;
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:
Is Paul Pierce in the same category as either of these guys or is he the next level down with guys like Dominique Wilkins?

I feel like it goes something like this;
Pierce and Dantley in the same tier. English is half a tier below. Wilkins is at least one tier below than any of the other 3.

I never agreed with Dantley being a black hole or a ball stopper or being an ineffective 30 ppg scorer.
Interestingly, Magic's injury in 1989 NBA Finals has a huge impact on Dantley's career outlook.
The Bad Boys became contenders with Dantley's arrival in 1986. It feels very inaccurate to say Dantley was the problem when they went to game 7 in CF in '87 and game 7 in NBA Finals in '88 (could've won without the phantom foul on Abdul-Jabbar). Then Dantley was traded out for Aguirre and the Pistons win the title against one of the weakest competitions ever. Bam, Dantley's career outlook goes down the drain because there was no title with him but there's one without him at the first try.
Dantley's arrival, along with drastic improvement sophomore Dumars had, was the reason why the Pistons went from being 45-46W team with first or second round exit to being a contender.
And if his scoring wasn't impactful, the Jazz wouldn't be that successful in '84 and '85.

As for Dantley vs. English, I think Dantley peaked clearly higher for me. Prime to prime, I also see Dantley as clearly better than English. English just didn't match offensive quality and impact that Dantley had.
Also, I started a thread about similar comparison awhile back. You might want to take a look at the discussion on there.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1961034

Pierce vs. Dantley feels harder because Pierce wasn't the scorer Dantley was. OTOH, Pierce was in the top percentile in 10+ season RAPM. Yeah, we don't and can't have RAPM for the '80s but even though I'm high on Dantley's overall impact, I'm not that high. I can't put him in the top percentile impactful players in his time.
Pierce can't match Dantley's scoring, Dantley can't match Pierce's overall impact (defense and off-ball play being the major reasons). The era differences are always there to consider. I'd assume you ask about these SFs to figure out your preferences for the top 100 project? I currently have Pierce ahead of Dantley on there. That's probably because I usually have more confidence in my picks those I got to watch while their career was happening, not just relying on hindsight.


50. Kevin McHale
Well, TBH, I could change this but I feel and think that leaving out McHale out of my top 50 is the most uncomfortable pick, so, I have him in there. At least for now.

I have some thoughts about some notions;
Odinn21 wrote:- We're reaching to a point, postseason success wouldn't be taken for granted, let alone deep postseason runs.
What I mean is Ray Allen and Paul Pierce vs. Manu Ginobili and Chauncey Billups.
Manu Ginobili who was cracking under the managed load he was getting, Ginobili was a very impactful beast that you wouldn't be able to trust 75+ games per season and in each playoffs. I just don't see Ginobili doing what Ray Allen did in entire 2000-01 season and I don't see Ginobili making the playoffs with the teams Allen and Pierce had.
Billups wasn't as good or impactful as the other three.


Odinn21 wrote:I'd like to get a reason other than "Ginobili brought titles" for Ginobili because that's not what happened in general. Let's take a ride into the past, shall we?

2005- The postseason why Ginobili gets all the love in the world, but not some stick for what happened after.
2006- His overall production went up but his per possession efficiency, which made him great, went down. He was the reason why team fell behind the Mavs by 1-3 and he was also the reason why the game 7 was lost. That foul on Nowitzki right at the end in regular time was just utterly sh.tting the bed.
2007- This time, not only his overall production didn't went up, his per poss eff got worse again. His scoring efficiency got considerably worse. 2007 just doesn't stick out because the Spurs had a fairly easy ride to the title. The only contending team they faced was the Suns and we know what happened in that series. In the first 4 games of that series, Ginobili was 12/5/4 on .417 ts. Other than those games, it was a cakewalk for the Spurs and the issues Ginobili was having didn't grab much attention.
2008- He wasn't fully healthy against the Lakers. The Spurs were actual contenders up until Ginobili's health issues and because of that, they were just utterly outclassed by the Lakers. The only time Ginobili had a good game, the Spurs had a blowout by 19 points. That was the only Spurs win. In the 4 loses, Ginobili averaged 8/4/4 on .359 ts.
2009- He had missed 38 games in regular season and the entire playoffs.
2010- Similarly with 2006, his overall production went up, his per poss eff went down. Though I believe 2010 is the only time in his prime that can't be held against him other than 2005 for postseason issues.
2011- His injury and Duncan's mobility issues were the major reasons why the Spurs couldn't get out of the 1st rounds.

That's the end of prime Ginobili's timeline. Though if we continue;
2012- In the 4 straight games the Spurs lost to the Thunder, Ginobili underperforming was the major reason in 3 of those 4. He had a massive performance in game 5, he went 34/6/7 on .693 ts. In the other 3 games, he was 10/4/2 on .522 ts.
2013- He was also pretty bad against the Heat in the finals, other than game 5.

So, in short, Ginobili didn't brought success, championships as much as people like to believe. He was the reason why the Spurs were denied at a chance to repeat, twice.

Some statistical evidence of what I'm talking about. Ginobili had a very clear drop in his performance compared to regular season.
2006-11; 4.7 obpm in regular seasons vs. 3.3 obpm in playoffs (-1.4 obpm drop)
2006-13; 4.5 obpm in regular seasons vs. 2.7 obpm in playoffs (-1.8 obpm drop)

Particularly in 2006 Mavs series, first 4 games of 2007 Suns series, 2008 Lakers series, 2010 Suns series and 2011 Grizzlies series; 2.5 obpm. That's almost half of 4.7 obpm.
If we add 2012 Thunder series and 2013 Heat series to the already mentioned series; 1.9 obpm. That's less than half of 4.5 obpm.

When it got tough for the Spurs, when they faced a team that could beat them, Ginobili had major performance issues.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#3 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:36 am

48. Dave Cowens
-Great combination of scoring, rebounding, defense and playmaking which led to very high win teams
-Very strong playoff performer, averaging 18.9/14.4/3.7 for his career. Led league in ps win shares in 76 despite not getting fmvp
-career treb% of 17.1 and ast % of 13.7 which are both good for a pf/c(Shaq's career %'s were 17.8/13.9)
-2x nba champ
-1x nba mvp
-4x top 4 in mvp voting(shows how highly regarded he was in his era)
-3x all nba 2nd team
-3x all defensive(1x 1st, 2x 2nd)
-Had 4 years with a ts+ above 100 in his prime so wasn't that inefficient as a scorer
-prime length of 9 years imo which is right there with most players despite career more or less ending at 31

49. Gary Payton
-this one was a very hard choice for me to make and came down to GP, Sam Jones, Hal Greer, Ray Allen, Gasol and McHale. I give Payton the nod mainly due to his combo of scoring, playmaking, defense and longevity. While also being arguably the best player on very good Sonics teams for quite a while. He also had by far the most top 10's in mvp voting out of this group(almost as many as the rest did combined) which makes me feel he was the most dominant out of them while also having a reasonable amount of playoff success. Plus very good metrics for the most part. So no real weaknesses on his resume.
-1x dpoy
-9x all nba(2x 1st, 5x 2nd, 2x 3rd)
-9x all defensive 1st team
-8x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 3rd)
-Pretty much led/co-led the Supersonics as a franchise from 93-03, leading them to 6 straight seasons of 55+ wins and 1 finals appearance.
-Very good combo of scoring & playmaking, breaking 20ppg 6 times(on career ts+ of 100 so generally at or above league average in prime years) while ranking 10th all time in assists and 4th all time in steals
-ranks 28th all time in win shares and 26th all time in vorp with 6 seasons with a vorp of 5.0 or higher which is impressive
-prime length of roughly 10-11 years is quite long where he played 80+ games most every year

50. Sam Jones
-Going with Jones here for sustained excellence in both rs and ps and obviously his role in the greatest dynasty in nba history which I think his role in is probably underrated in general. I'm just going to go through and post his rank on those teams in win shares for both the rs and ps from 62-67 to show what I am talking about. rs first and ps second(62-66 all being title teams)
62: 2nd 2nd
63: 2nd 2nd
64: 2nd 1st
65: 2nd 2nd
66: 2nd 2nd
67: 4th 1st(tie)

So as we can see and which the actual numbers do a better job of showing is the degree to which it was Russell and Jones at the top and then usually quite a large gap between them and everyone else on those teams. His role on 5 of those title teams was very large which is something no one else left can match when it comes to contributing to post season success imo(granted Cousy could be argued but I think Jones was better).

-3x all nba 2nd team
-3x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 4th)
-6 seasons averaging over 19ppg with career ts+ of 104(highly efficient for a wing)
-5 playoff runs averaging over 23ppg all at or above .516 ts%(when league average was under 50%)
-career ws/48 of .182 which ranks 35th all time
-known as clutch playoff scorer
-from 1962-1966 the Celtics played in 6 decisive game 5 or game 7's and Jones averaged 32.5ppg in those games which were all wins(most by 3 pts or less).
-Going to finish this with one last point about Jones which is that just imagine how high people would be on a guy like Jamaal Murray if he won 4-5 rings in a row in Den while continually upping his scoring in the playoffs and being clearly the second best player to Jokic but while also finishing top 10 in mvp voting a few times. That's exactly what Jones did but won something like 10 rings total. People would be calling Murray one of the greatest playoff performers of all time yet people don't talk about Jones that way when they likely should.

p.s. what I don't like about Pau relative to some of the other guys I have on my ballot(though I am within 1-2 guys of having him on mine) is his Memphis numbers just don't fully cut it with me as a #1 guy. His treb% is terrible there for a 7 footer and even his passing isn't really anything special ast wise until 2006. imo he only had 1 actual high level season prior to LA which was the one year he made the all star game in 06. The other years he was good but not really standing out plus missed a lot of games.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:55 am

PG -- Gary Payton, Bob Cousy
SG -- Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, Sam Jones, Hal Greer
SF -- Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Paul Arizin, Tracy McGrady
PF -- Pau Gasol, Kevin McHale, Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Elvin Hayes, Giannis
Antetokounmpo
C -- Dwight Howard, Robert Parish, Dave Cowens, Ben Wallace, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Bill Walton


Bigs, we have Pau, McHale, and Dwight Howard. Webber is a step below the other three. Despite Howard's undoubted impact, I will eliminate him first. Pau v. McHale: my head says McHale for his stronger defense and post game, my gut says Pau for his superior passing, range, and because he played a much bigger role in the Laker championships than McHale did in the Celtics titles. I'll go with Pau here.

So,

1. Pau Gasol
2. Manu Ginobili
3. Kevin McHale
---
4. Gary Payton?

Then it's probably a wing: English and Dantley are also strong candidates, Ray Allen for the 3 is the other possibility. Sam Jones and Arizin could convince me, I'd have to see a head to head comp to move them above the others.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#5 » by Hal14 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:59 am

Hal14 wrote:1. Kevin McHale
2. Nate Thurmond
3. Gary Payton

McHale - did everything you could want from a PF. He could score, he could rebound and is also one of the best post defenders of all time. He beat opposing bigs down the floor and had defensive versatility (at times would defend the 3, 4 and 5)..oh yeah and he won 3 championships, 5 NBA finals appearances. McHale had more effective post up moves than just about any player ever. Only other guys who really are in that conversation are Hakeem and Kareem.



Rebounding-wise he was excellent, especially considering he had to compete for rebounds with 2 other strong rebounders on his own team, Parish and Bird.

I think a good comparison for McHale is Pippen - it's pretty debatable IMO which was better. Both had really good team success while playing as the no. 2 guy alongside one of the best players ever (Bird, Jordan), both had good but not great longevity, both had a solid 3 or 4 years where they were arguably the best in the world at their position and a legit top 5 or 6 player in the league. McHale a better scorer, about even on D, maybe a slight edge on D for Pippen, Pippen did better as his team's no. 1 guy in 93-94 than McHale did in 88-89 but that was also post-surgery McHale playing in a more competitive league than Pippen played in 93-94. By 93-94 there was more expansion teams and the effect of all those additional teams was really starting to cause rosters to be more thin on talent.

Any case you make for Pippen to give him a small edge is canceled out by the fact that a) Pippen refused to go into the game in the final seconds of a crucial playoff game in 94 because his coach drew a play up for a teammate and b) Pippen selfishly sat out 1/2 the season in 97-98 because of a dispute with team management and c) Mchale was always a class act, teammates loved him, coaches loved him, respected by opponents and ALWAYS played, even if he was hurt like in the 87 NBA finals when he played through more pain than just about any player ever in order to try and help his team win a title. Pippen got voted in 14 rounds ago in this poll - how is it that Pippen got voted in 14 rounds ago yet McHale is still on the board? Recency bias.

McHale was not only versatile on defense (guarded the 3 at times with Bird guarding the 4, plus of course McHale guarded 4's and at times even guarded 5's when Parish sat down) but he also had the versatility of being highly effective in both half court offense and fast break offense. Everyone knows about his awesome low post moves in half court, but he was also excellent at running the floor in transition, beating his man down the court, out running and out working opposing bigs to get down court faster fopr easy buckets. Plus he hustled back on D to prevent fast break buckets by the opposition.

Plus McHale developed an effective outside shot in the mid range and even could hit 3's later in his career.

Let's compare McHale to Gasol, who's also getting some votes in this poll:

McHale was the better scorer by a decent margin and the better defender by a decent margin. Best post moves of any PF ever. More team success than Gasol, despite playing less seasons. And even though Gasol has a longevity edge, that edge isn't as significant when you consider his era was less physical, more days off in between games to recover, more advancements in nutrition, sports science, weight training, strength and conditioning, had better facilities, better equipment and even though he played more seasons, he did miss a ton of games during his career. In his 18 year career, Gasol played in 70+ games and 24+ MPG in the same season just 8 times. McHale did it 7 times.

1) Put Pau's Laker teams in the 80s and he wins 0 titles. Put the Bird/Parish/McHale Celtics in the 2000s and they win 5.

2) Range is comparable. McHale actually developed some really good range on his shot. Then again, it wasn't until both Gasol and McHale were past their prime before either of them really developed strong range, so not sure I would use that as much of a factor here. If we did factor it in, we'd have to account for difference in eras. By that I mean, Gasol simply had better range because in his era, that's the way the game was being played - especially from 2005 on - bigs had to be able to shoot from further away - and overall the entire league was shooting way more 3's than they did in McHale's era. It's like saying "Oh, Nash had better range than Isiah" well yeah no kidding! Look at the era they played in - nobody was shooting 3's in Isiah's era, when he was in college there was no 3 point shot - whereas Nash played in the era when the game revolved around the 3 and it was a much more emphasized part of the game.
3) Pau with superior passing to McHale? Eh, I don't see it as much of a difference there either. Maybe a slight edge for Gasol. The perception is that McHale is this black hole who never passes, but if you actually watch some of his footage you'll see lots of outstanding interior passing as well as good transition passing.

The slight edge Gasol has passing-wise can easily be chalked up to the fact a) he often times played in the high post where he could more easily see the entire floor, hit cutters or dump the ball in to a teammate in high post so it is less about him being a better passer and more about the way he was used on offense and b) he played in an era with less physicality and more floor spacing which makes it easier for him to make good passes whereas McHale played in an era with less spacing and more physicality, he gets the ball in the post with defenders draped all over him so all he could do is either kick the ball back out to the perimeter or try and score.

McHale is the better scorer by a decent margin and the better defender by a decent margin. 2nd best player on what many (including me) consider to be the greatest team of all time, the 86' Celtics. The year after that in 87, McHale finished no. 4 in MVP voting. Yes, despite the fact that he was on the same team as Bird (voted top 10 of all time in this poll, top 5 of all time according to many, including myself, coming off 3 straight MVPs), McHale was STILL top 4 in MVP voting that year. Pau played alongside Kobe, who was an MVP contender. Surely, if Pau is in the same conversation as McHale then Pau would have been an MVP contender while playing on the same team as Kobe (just like McHale was an MVP contender while playing alongside prime Bird), right? Wrong. This is Gasol while on Kobe's team:

2008 - no MVP votes
2009 - no MVP votes
2010 - no MVP votes (Chris Bosh, Stephen Jackson and Joe Johnson did get MVP votes though)
2011 - no MVP votes
2012 - no MVP votes
2013 - no MVP votes (Marc Gasol, Ty Lawson and David Lee did get MVP votes though)
2014 - no MVP votes

In fact, Gasol never once in his career got so much as one single point on the NBA MVP ballot.

McHale meanwhile got points in the MVP voting 3 times.
1986 - 13th in voting, 3 points
1987 - 4th in voting, 254 points
1991 - 19th in voting, 1 point

-McHale 7 all star games, Gasol 6
-Mchale 6 times on the all defensive team, Gasol 0
<br>
-McHale 1 time all NBA 1st team, Gasol 0
-McHale 0 times all NBA 2nd team, Gasol 1
-McHale would have undoubtedly made the all NBA 3rd team at least a couple of times but it didn't exist until end of Mchale's prime and after his foot surgery
-3 titles, 5 NBA finals appearances, 7 times in conference finals for McHale compared to 2 titles, 3 NBA finals appearances, 4 times in conference finals for Gasol

This gigantic edge in awards for McHale and going deeper into playoffs more times - despite the fact that he played 5 less seasons than Gasol.

Also keep in mind in 87 when Mchale had his best season - some even think he was even better than Bird that year - again, keep in mind this was Bird in his prime coming off 3 straight MVPs - yet in 87 McHale was seen by many people as just as good as Bird and seen by some people as even better. McHale was having his best season in 87, and the Celtics would have won the title but Mchale had a stress fracture in his foot as well as other key Celtics players who were hurt:

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-06-04-sp-4497-story.html</p>

There's little doubt in my mind that a healthy Celtics team wins the title in 87. Then we're talking about a guy in Mchale who was not only the 2nd best player on the greatest team of all time in 86, but if the Celtics were healthy in 87 and won the title, Mchale would have been arguably the best player on possibly the 2nd greatest team of all time. Keep in mind, Magic says that he thinks 87 was the best team his Lakers ever had. That tells you how good that 87 Celtics team was when healthy.

Playing most of the 87 season with that severe foot injury resulted in a shorter career for McHale and resulted in him being less effective in his later seasons, but that's the way players played in his era. They were tough and they played through pain. They were warriors. And McHale should be recognized for that, and not penalized.

Lastly, I don't think there's really much debate that McHale was arguably the GOAT when it comes to scoring in the low post / most effective post moves. Hakeem? Kareem? Who else is even in the same conversation as McHale when it comes to low post moves/low post scoring? Gasol, meanwhile…is there anything that Gasol is arguably the GOAT at? Of course not.

In this ESPN poll, released in 2016, Mchale ranks as the no. 6 PF of all time, ahead of Pettit, ahead of gasol and ahead of every PF who is still on the board for this project.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/nbarankPFs/ranking-greatest-power-forwards-nba-history

Also in 2016, ESPN ranked McHale the no. 31 player of all time so I think it's about time we vote him in here as the no. 46 player.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/nbarank160201/all-nbarank-31-35

Nate Thurmond - right in that same tier with Reed, Gilmore and Ewing. I see those four centers as pretty debatable. Ewing, Gilmore and Reed all got voted in already - it's Thurmond's time now. Thurmond has a strong case for being better than all 3 of them (probably the best defender of the group, but Gilmore has the longevity and ABA Finals MVP, Reed has 2 Finals MVPs so I've got Thurmond just barely ranked behind those other guys).

Thurmond is one of the most underrated players of all time and is top 50, no question in my mind.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/defensive-dominator-thurmond-one-nbas-most-underrated-all-time

Thurmond went against Wilt, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Unseld, Bellamy, Beaty, Cowens, Reed - all in their prime. Yet he still managed:

-7 all star games in 14 seasons

-2 times all defensive 1st team, 3 times all defensive 2nd team...despite the fact that all defense awards didn't exist until his 6th season! Clearly one of the best defensive players of all time and one of the best rebounders of all time

-Did not make a 1st or 2nd team all NBA (obviously those usually went to Wilt/Kareem/Russell) but there's very little question he would have made quite a few all NBA 3rd team selections if it existed back when he played

-Finished 2nd in MVP voting in 66-67, finishing ahead of Russell, Robertson and Barry - Thurmond finished no. 2 behind Wilt who was no. 1. Finished 11th in 69-70, 8th in 70-7, 8th in 71-72, 9th in 72-73 and 8th in 73-74

-Helped his team to NBA Finals in 67, where they lost to arguably the greatest team of all time, the 67 Sixers. That series Thurmond averaged 14 PPG and 26.7 RPG while playing 47 MPG, going head to head vs Wilt. Thurmond's Warriors fell in 6 games to Wilt's Sixers. Let's compare that to the Eastern Division Finals - Russell (while also going against Wilt) averaged less PPG (11) and less RPG (23) than Thurmond, and Russell's Celtics lost in 5 games to Wilt's Sixers. How did Wilt do in each series? His numbers. were better in the Eastern Division Finals, going against Russell than they were in the NBA finals vs Thurmond. Wilt went from 21 PPG, 32 RPG and 10 APG vs Russell down to 17 PPG, 28 RPG and 6 APG vs Thurmond.

Gary Payton - Billups just got voted in, but I have Payton ranked higher than Billups by a decent margin because Payton was a better scorer - better playmaker/facilitator - quicker off the dribble / better penetrator - more explosive as a threat leading the break in transition compared to Billups who walked the ball up the court - kept pressure on the defense more in the half court as well as opposed to Billups who simply brought the ball up and dished it off to the wing for a Pistons team that had a boring offense and lost in one of the most boring / unwatchable NBA finals of all time in 2005.

Scoring-wise, Payton averaged 20+ PPG 8 times. Billups did it 0 times.

Payton was a better playmaker. Payton averaged 7+ APG 11 times. Billups did it only 3 times.

All of these advantages Payton had as an offensive weapon, despite the fact that
a) Payton played most of his career (and his entire prime) before hand checking started to actually be enforced more in the 04-05 season - compared to Billups who played most of his career (and his entire prime) AFTER hand checking was enforced more
b) Payton played most of his career (and his entire prime) before defensive 3 seconds rule was introduced in 01-02 season which means Payton had a higher degree of difficulty to accumulate points and assists with opposing bigs clogging up the paint - compared to Billups who played most of his career (and his entire prime) AFTER defensive 3 second rule was introduced
c) Billups played in the era which was by far more "3 pointer friendly" with an increase in 3 pointers being taken during Billups' prime which resulted in a) Billups is naturally going to be a better outside shooter since that's the way the league had evolved in his era and b) more emphasis on 3 point shooting in Billups era = increased spacing = easier for Billups to have room to operate in the post, more space in the lane to dish off to teammates, simply easier to create offense and accumulate posts and assists than Payton had in a less 3 point friendly era
d) Payton played most of his career in an era dominated by big men (Shaq, Ewing, Robinson, Mourning, Mutombo, Hakeem, etc.) whereas Billups rise to stardom came precisely at a time when we saw a huge increase in smaller guards dominating the NBA (Nash wins 2 MVPs magically after being a bum his first few years - did he somehow turn into a better player, no rules changes and evolution of the game now favored point guards, Derrick Rose wins MVP, Chris Paul, Steph Curry,. Westbrook, etc.) the game evolved to favor 3 point shooting and point guards which made it easier for Billups to thrive
e) Billups played in a weak eastern conference, which typically only had 1 or 2 teams who were legit contenders compared to Payton who was battling it out every year in the 90s west which was insanely competitive (Suns, Rockets, Sonics, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers, Blazers and then you have the 91 Warriors and 94 Nuggets, it was a battle!)

Not to mention Payton was a far better defensive player to Billups. I mean, with Payton we are talking about arguably the best defensive point guard of all time. 9x all defensive 1st team, 1x defensive POY, 1x league leader in steals. Billups meanwhile made 2x all defense 2nd team and that's it - no comparison, it's apples to oranges.

The choice becomes even more obvious when we look at:
All star selections - 9 to 5 in favor of Payton
All NBA 1st team selections - 2 to 0 in favor of Payton
All NBA 2nd team selections - 5 to 1 in favor of Payton
All NBA 3rd team selections - 2 apiece

Not saying awards are the be all, end all, but it's hard to at least not factor them in when there's such a glaring difference between 2 players.

How about durability? After all, you're only valuable to your team if you can actually play and be on the court. Payton had 12 seasons with 78+ games and 30+ MPG in the same season. Billups only had 5. This category favors Payton even more if we take the lockout season of 99 into account - there was only 50 games and Payton played in all 50 of them, averaging 40 MPG, compared to Billups who sat out 5 games that season and also played less minutes (33 MPG).

Keep in mind, they both played exactly 17 seasons.

Billups was never really THE guy on any team. Those Pistons teams were truly an ensemble. They won with defense and Ben Wallace was obviously their best defender. Wallace was the guy they built that team around - not Billups. Wallace got to Detroit 2 years before Billups. The Pistons added pieces around Wallace who they fit fit that blue collar, tough, physical, defensive mold. Billups was a key piece but was really more of strong role player who had the luxury of moving the ball around, getting other guys involved and picking his spots here and there when he wanted to shoot. I mean, there was times when you could even argue that Billups was their 5th best player (since him, Hamilton, Prince and the 2 Wallaces were at times seen as interchangeable and brought relatively equal value) and if there was 1 guy. who was the most valuable to those Pistons teams, gun to your head most people are probably picking Ben Wallace. And Hamilton was often times their best scorer. Payton meanwhile carried the Sonics. He was THE guys. Yeah, maybe at time Kemp was their best player, but when you factor in not just scoring, but playmaking and defense, Payton was THE guy leading those Sonics teams, he had to be the one running the offense and carrying the load as a dual threat scoring/playmaking.

Payton was THE guy leading the Sonics, which was arguably the best team of the 90s other than the Bulls, year in and year out. Over a six-year span, the Sonics won 357 games and finished with the best record in the West four times, reaching the conference finals twice and the NBA Finals once.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#6 » by JoeMalburg » Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:56 am

This is the fourth project I've participated in or observed and I finally am appreciating the diversity of opinions the way I should have from the start.

I still think the final project of this list will be confusing and misleading as always, but the process of deciding it is unquestionably invaluable. Which suggests to me, that overall, this project is an amazing asset to the pro basketball history community.

Kudos too all involved over time and especially the mainstays who keep this project rolling every three years. When I started my obsession with pro basketball history in the late eighties and early 1990's, I never imagined this would exist. And though I had to wait three decades for it come to fruition, it was worth the wait.

Keep up the good work RealGM.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#7 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 am

1. Manu Ginobili - Incredible peak, consistently high impact player that is only really hurt by relatively low minutes. There are a few guys left who were the leaders of succesful teams instead of second fiddles like Manu but I don't really see any of those leaders (Cousy, Hayes, Payton to name a few big ones) as better or more important than Manu.

2. Pau Gasol - Another extremely valuable second option. The 08-10 stretch is consistently great both in the regular season and post-season. Those years alone are enough for me to see Gasol above some other candidates but he also showed promise as a legit first option that just didn't have the right team around him.

3. Kevin McHale - I'm not planning to get back on the Arizin train before he gets some traction but that's not a big problem as there is a group of players that really aren't that far apart available so I don't feel too strongly about certain picks above others. McHale and Pau are very close in my mind but I prefer Gasol's more concentrated peak. Ray Allen is also right around the corner. Sam Jones as well but I do have him behind Arizin. Dwight might get my vote soon but with so many center candidates getting traction now I'll have to look into it a bit.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:30 pm

1st vote: Pau Gasol
Another decent star with outstanding longevity, Pau entered the league at age 21 and was immediately probably a top 30 player in the league (basically borderline All-Star level player): averaged 17.6/8.9/2.7 @ +4.6% rTS and 2.1 bpg, though admittedly for a terrible team, and kinda turnover-prone as a rookie. tbf, it wasn't much of a cast around him: Shane Battier is a very underrated player (though perhaps cast too high when the 2nd [or arguably 1st??] best player on a team); after that it was Jason Williams and Stromile Swift as 3rd and 4th, and mostly trash behind that.
So overall....pretty good coming out party for the rookie.

In '06 he averaged 20.4/8.9/4.6 @ +1.9% rTS with 1.9 bpg for a team that won 49 games and had the 5th-rated +3.74 SRS (this was with Shane Battier, Mike Miller, an OLD Eddie Jones, and a bunch of spare parts, btw). They were swept in the first round, though due to a brutal WC [and even more brutal SW division that contained the defending champs and the eventual WC champ] and the stupid playoff structure of the time they drew the 60-win Mavericks team (you know, the one that would win the conference). Pau did struggle a bit in the series.

If you somehow blend these two seasons, you get an idea of what "average" P.Gasol was in Memphis.

But in '08 Kobe was barking at the Lakers to either make them a contender or he'd walk, so they bring in Pau......and he almost immediately meshes as the perfect Dick Grayson to Kobe's Bruce Wayne, making the Lakers an instant contender.
Pau would have likely his three BEST seasons as a Laker [from '09-'11], collectively averaging 18.7/10.3/3.4 on approximately +5(ish)% rTS, good turnover economy, and decent defense during those years. They'd win two titles, with Pau playing pretty good in both runs ('10 in particular: 19.6 ppg @ +5.6% rTS, 11.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.1 bpg, and only 1.9 topg.....that's a really nice line).

He'd continue to have relevant seasons all the way out to his 17th season (age 37), ultimately sitting 30th in NBA/ABA history in career rs WS (and currently tied for 40th all-time [w/ Clyde Drexler] in ps WS). He's actually ahead of Chauncey Billups in rs WS [and WS love Chauncey], though is behind Chauncey in ps WS.

He lacks All-NBA accolades more because his prime overlaps that of Tim Duncan [#5 on this list], Kevin Garnett [#11 on this list], and Dirk Nowitzki [#15 on this list]---as well as much of Lebron James [#1 on this list] and other sporadically excellent forwards such as Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, and Chris Bosh----than from him lacking All-NBA chops.
I've little doubt that if his competition was John Havlicek, Billy Cunningham, Truck Robinson, Gus Johnson, Bob Love, and Elvin Hayes......Pau would have a few more than he does [likely including at least one 1st Team nod].

At any rate, I think he at least deserves serious consideration at this stage.


2nd vote: Gary Payton
Was about 7-10 places higher on him until just very recently. But he's certainly big in the picture by this point [maybe even overdue??].
Criticized for low shooting efficiency [fair enough point], but he's also got a fantastic turnover economy. Better, for instance, than guys like Jason Kidd, Tim Hardaway, Allen Iverson, Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, and John Stockton to name a handful; not much worse than Chris Paul, actually.
Obviously strong defensive acumen early in his prime. Was at the forefront of perhaps the 3rd-best team of the 90s [solid decade as far as competition; giving 1st and 2nd to the Bulls and Jazz, btw]. WS/48 is NOT in love with him [due to aforementioned pedestrian shooting efficiency], yet he's STILL 28th all-time in rs WS.

Best 7-year RAPM added [utilizing Elgee's AuPM as proxy for '94-'96] is right in the immediate vicinity of guys like Russell Westbrook, Arvydas Sabonis, Hakeem Olajuwon, Andre Iguodala, James Harden, Baron Davis, and Penny Hardaway. So pretty good company for this stage of the list, especially noting Payton played more minutes than any of them in their respective samples: nearly 39 mpg on average in those 7 years, while missing just ONE game total [not a typo].


3rd vote: Dwight Howard
Truly there are a number of guys on my immediate radar for this final spot: Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen all feel perfectly appropriate to me as well. Everyone else in the immediate vicinity on my ATL have already been voted in. The next-closest competitors for me are probably Bob Lanier, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson, and Anthony Davis.......but they're all distinctly separated from the others noted above.

Popular opinion on Dwight has REALLY dwindled in the last half-dozen or so years. I feel people have forgotten just how good he was in that '09-'11 range. imo, he peaked in the same general vicinity as bigs like Anthony Davis and Patrick Ewing. This was a guy who was anchoring ON AVERAGE a -5.3 rDRTG during those three years (worst was -4.3, best was -6.4===>which, if I've counted right, is tied [with the '12 and '69 Celtics] for the 23rd-best defense EVER; 12 of those ahead belong to either Russell or Duncan [it's better than ANYTHING anchored by Dikembe, Hakeem, or Wilt]).
He did so without an assortment of true defensive specialists around him (decent ones, for sure; but not great ones).
They simultaneously managed to build some fairly successful offenses around him, by basically just surrounding him with shooters and daring teams to double-team him. Dwight was arguably the best big-man finisher outside of prime Shaq when he got the ball down low. He was just so strong and such an explosive leaper......teams were screwed if he got the ball down there.
Surrounded by mostly what I would call "good role players" he actually led one team to the NBA finals in this span.

While his prime dwindled very quickly after his back injury/surgery in '12, it's not like he was instantly ineffective. He still had some fair/decent years out to around '15 or so, and then of course a somewhat happy resurgence in a 6MOY-candidate kind of role for a title team last year. Not to mention he had a few fairly decent years BEFORE that '09-'11 span, too.
All-around it amounts to a career that looks relatively well-positioned for a top 50 placement, imo.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:37 pm

Thru post #8:

Pau Gasol - 2 (trex_8063, penbeast0)
Ray Allen - 1 (Odinn21)
Kevin McHale - 1 (Hal14)
Manu Ginobili - 1 (Dutchball97)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)


Probably about 27-28 hours left for this one.
NOTE: Good idea to make clear your order between McHale/Gasol/Manu/(+/- others??), if it’s not clear from your picks.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#10 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:45 pm

Pau
Ray
Manu
McHale
is my order for the guys not on my ballot
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#11 » by sansterre » Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:04 am

1. Manu Ginobili - an extremely high peak more than balances out his relatively low longevity. At his peak he was good at everything, from defense, to passing, to shooting to attacking the rim, and he integrated very effectively with many strong teams.

2. Pau Gasol - was never extremely good, but was really, really good for a very long time. It's easy to miss but he was really good out of the gate in Memphis, and he was the critical addition that turned the Lakers from a first round team to a champion. And even late in his career when his postseason scoring abandoned him he still added solid value with defense and rebounding.

3. Gary Payton - his playoff struggles really soured me on him. But that doesn't change that he was the face of one of the greatest defenses of the 90s, and provided strong value for a long time. He was never really capable of being an alpha on a contender (unless trash-talking is a consideration), but he provided strong rebounding, strong defense, strong passing and solid scoring with good turnover economy for a long time. It's hard to not vote for this guy.

Then Allen then McHale if it comes to it.

Player to think about - Tracy McGrady.

I generally favor longevity, which T-Mac doesn't have. But are we sure that this guy wasn't secretly amazing? BPM is only so good, but he posted five straight seasons in the Top 4 of the VORP metric. But the thing that really impresses me is his playoff performance. From '01 to '08 he averaged a +8.5 BPM, posting crazy high usage, good passing and very low turnovers. Compare that to Kobe's playoffs from '03 to '10 and T-Mac has more assists and higher volume but lower efficiency, and a +8.5 BPM to Kobe's +6.4. Now I'll be fully above board, AuRPM doesn't view him favorably. But it's hard to know; his Orlando teammates were fairly horrible. In '05 he posted a 44.5% Helio score for the +4.27 Rockets (56.3% in the playoffs). He may not have had a long career, but are we really sure that he wasn't one of the very best players in the league for his 5-7 year peak? Especially that he seemed to get better in the postseason? I don't really know where to put him, but it's worth discussing.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:54 am

JoeMalburg wrote:This is the fourth project I've participated in or observed and I finally am appreciating the diversity of opinions the way I should have from the start.

I still think the final project of this list will be confusing and misleading as always, but the process of deciding it is unquestionably invaluable. Which suggests to me, that overall, this project is an amazing asset to the pro basketball history community.

Kudos too all involved over time and especially the mainstays who keep this project rolling every three years. When I started my obsession with pro basketball history in the late eighties and early 1990's, I never imagined this would exist. And though I had to wait three decades for it come to fruition, it was worth the wait.

Keep up the good work RealGM.


Kind words, sir; thank you.

Though you and I differ in opinion on a number of players, the project would benefit if you participate. Feel free to hop in at any point [I'll add you to the voter pool immediately should you opt to participate].
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#13 » by Magic Is Magic » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:33 am

I am placing my Vote for the #48 ranking

1. Bob Cousy
2. Giannis Antetuokompo
3. Elvin Hayes

1. Bob Cousy: What didn't this guy do? 13x All Star, 6x Champion, 8x Assist Leader, 1x MVP, and 10x 1st team All NBA. I see people are putting Baylor over Cousy and I'm not mad at it, Cousy did have the better team after all. But it's hard to argue against 6 rings to Baylor's zero. 6 vs 0 is huge, and of course Cousy's MVP which Baylor never won. Cousy was also top 3 in point scored for a total of 4x just like Baylor. This is a no brainer for me but Baylor was already voted in ahead of Cousy.

2. Giannis Antetuokompo. 2x MVPs (no one else left has this that I know of)? 4x total 1st team selections: 2 all NBA, 2 all defense. 3 PO seasons with BPM over 7.0 And above all the man can play both sides of the ball. He needs more longevity and a ring to move further up but there aren't many players left that you would take over Giannis.

3. Elvin Hayes has accumulated more than a lot of people that are getting traction. Hayes is an NBA champion, 12x all star, 3x made the 1st team All NBA, 3x top 5 in MVP, 7x top 5 in rebounding, 6x top 5 in points, and 120 regular season win shares. A very strong career for a top 50 player.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#14 » by giordunk » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:59 am

Was starting to wonder where some current guys (Giannis and AD?) would start popping up.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#15 » by sansterre » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:32 pm

sansterre wrote:1. Manu Ginobili - an extremely high peak more than balances out his relatively low longevity. At his peak he was good at everything, from defense, to passing, to shooting to attacking the rim, and he integrated very effectively with many strong teams.

2. Pau Gasol - was never extremely good, but was really, really good for a very long time. It's easy to miss but he was really good out of the gate in Memphis, and he was the critical addition that turned the Lakers from a first round team to a champion. And even late in his career when his postseason scoring abandoned him he still added solid value with defense and rebounding.

3. Gary Payton - his playoff struggles really soured me on him. But that doesn't change that he was the face of one of the greatest defenses of the 90s, and provided strong value for a long time. He was never really capable of being an alpha on a contender (unless trash-talking is a consideration), but he provided strong rebounding, strong defense, strong passing and solid scoring with good turnover economy for a long time. It's hard to not vote for this guy.

Then Allen then McHale if it comes to it.

Player to think about - Tracy McGrady.

I generally favor longevity, which T-Mac doesn't have. But are we sure that this guy wasn't secretly amazing? BPM is only so good, but he posted five straight seasons in the Top 4 of the VORP metric. But the thing that really impresses me is his playoff performance. From '01 to '08 he averaged a +8.5 BPM, posting crazy high usage, good passing and very low turnovers. Compare that to Kobe's playoffs from '03 to '10 and T-Mac has more assists and higher volume but lower efficiency, and a +8.5 BPM to Kobe's +6.4. Now I'll be fully above board, AuRPM doesn't view him favorably. But it's hard to know; his Orlando teammates were fairly horrible. In '05 he posted a 44.5% Helio score for the +4.27 Rockets (56.3% in the playoffs). He may not have had a long career, but are we really sure that he wasn't one of the very best players in the league for his 5-7 year peak? Especially that he seemed to get better in the postseason? I don't really know where to put him, but it's worth discussing.

Odinn made several good points via PM and with that in mind I am changing my order.

1. Gary Payton
2. Pau Gasol
3. Manu Ginobili

4. Ray Allen
5. Kevin McHale
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:37 pm

As content has slowed a bit, I'm again going to present some figures for players with a tad of traction [fwiw...food for thought and/or discussion]....

Peak [rs] Scaled PER
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 29.21 ('20) [note: in only 30.4 mpg]
Dwight Howard - 26.75 ('11)
Kevin McHale - 24.08 ('87)
Pau Gasol - 23.96 ('07)
Manu Ginobili - 23.96 ('07) [note: in only 27.5 mpg]
Gary Payton - 23.02 ('00)
Ray Allen - 22.62 ('01)
Sam Jones - 22.54 ('66 [note: only 32.2 mpg])
Bob Cousy - 21.73 ('52 [was 21.72 in '53 as well])
Dave Cowens - 20.44 ('75)


Peak [rs] Scaled WS/48
Giannis Antetokounmpo - .2718 ('20) [note: in only 30.4 mpg]
Dwight Howard - .2657 ('11)
Manu Ginobili - .2647 ('05) [note: in only 29.6 mpg]
Pau Gasol - .2615 ('11)
Kevin McHale - .2527 ('86)
Sam Jones - .2310 ('66 [note: only 32.2 mpg])
Ray Allen - .2283 ('01)
Gary Payton - .2035 ('00)
Dave Cowens - .1990 ('75)
Bob Cousy - .1831 ('57)


Prime WOWYR (Giannis not included)
Gary Payton: +6.8
Bob Cousy: +4.4
Dwight Howard: +4.2
Kevin McHale: +3.6
Sam Jones: +3.4
Manu Ginobili: +3.0
Pau Gasol: +2.4
Dave Cowens: +1.6
Ray Allen: +1.0


Best 7-Years RAPM added (minutes played in those seasons [shortened seasons pro-rated], and crude product {RAPM * minutes} with product rank in group) (utilizing AuPM as proxy for '94-'96; Reed, Cousy, Jones, and McHale excluded obviously)
Manu Ginobili - 44.6 (13,325, 594,295 [1st])
Dwight Howard - 25.84 (18,655, 482,025.2 [3rd])
Gary Payton - 24.65 (22,078.12, 544,225.66 [2nd])
Ray Allen - 23.19 (20,625.16, 478,297.46 [4th])
Pau Gasol - 15.8 (18,599, 293,864.2 [5th])
Giannis Antetokounmpo - *14.05 (17,137, 240,774.85 [6th])

*Don't have RAPM for '20; used conservative +3 rating for that year. Worth noting that even if assumed a relatively robust +4.75 RAPM for that season, he'd still only tie Gasol at 15.8 and would still have the lowest [6th/6] product.


*Total Value Above Replacement by PER and WS/48 [SD scaled, and calibrated for seasons played], and all-time rank
*Scaled PER and WS/48 used, "replacement level" set at PER of 13.5 in rs [12.5 in playoffs] and WS/48 of .078 in rs [.064 in playoffs]; modifiers used the make WS/48 of .100 be worth the same "score" as PER of 15.0; playoff minutes weighted 3.25x as heavy as rs minutes; calibrated to dilute advantage of extensive longevity.

Kevin McHale - 11,586.88 (*33rd)
Pau Gasol - 11,291.63 (*36th) [*worth noting that in a version that just measures straight TVORP by this measure (no diluting of longevity), Pau is 32nd and McHale is 36th]
Dwight Howard - 10,593.2 (41st)
Ray Allen - 9,576.4 (50th)
Gary Payton - 8,631.86 (56th)
Sam Jones - 7,927.99 (65th)
Bob Cousy (**excluding '51)- 6,852.29 (88th)
Dave Cowens - 6,168.69 (106th)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 5,768.18 (116th)



fwiw, I have another family of formulas that utilize regular season mpg, PER, WS, WS/48, win%, WOWY, rDRTG, total pts, total reb, total ast, career ppg, peak ppg, playoff mpg, PER, WS, WS/48, win%, as well as accolades/honors [weighted against position-specific year-by-year era rating], MVP award shares [weighted against general year-by-year era rating], peak season [as determined by largest rs mpg*PER*WS/48 product], titles, finals appearances, FMVP's, and total seasons/games played......
.....Different versions weight things differently. And note that unlike the above formula, this family does NOT use scaled PER and WS/48.
But just going with the "original" (which is actually like 5th or 6th generation) weighting BUT utilizing my more recent one that then calibrates against years played [to better ensure it's not grossly over-valuing longevity], here are their all-time ranks:

Dwight Howard (*35th) [*a hypothetical George Mikan who had MVP's and defensive honours awarded during his career would move ahead, pushing Dwight to 36th]
Gary Payton (41st)
Pau Gasol (46th)
Kevin McHale (49th)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (52nd)
Bob Cousy (55th)
Ray Allen (56th)
Manu Ginobili (63rd)
Dave Cowens (66th)
Sam Jones (93rd)


Or for one of the alternate versions in this same family, there's one titled "Version 16.8.1"......relative to the one cited above, it does NOT have a specific longevity calibration, BUT thru how things are weighted it inherently has less longevity emphasis compared to the "original" anyway. It also has less regular season winner's bias, places a little more emphasis on big-man defense [using rebounds as a proxy], slightly more efficiency accountable [via how WS/48 is weighted], and PER and WS/48---instead of used as raw terms---are considered in the degree to which they are above [or below] replacement level.
Here are their standings in Version 16.8.1:

Dwight Howard (*31st) [*though again would fall to 32nd with our hypothetical Mikan]
Pau Gasol (40th)
Gary Payton (47th)
Kevin McHale (50th)
Ray Allen (56th)
Manu Ginobili (58th)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (61st)
Bob Cousy (64th)
Dave Cowens (86th)
Sam Jones (96th)


For whatever this is worth to you.....
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#17 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:45 pm

TImes in Top 5 in playoff WS:
Sam Jones* 5
Kevin McHale* 4
Dave Cowens* 2
Manu Ginóbili 2
Pau Gasol 2
Ray Allen* 2

Jones is only one left with 5 seasons in top 5 of playoff win shares -one of only 15 players.

1. Jones
2. Cowens - dominant player for number of years; key player in two championships
3. McHale - probably better peak than Gasol or Allen for me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#18 » by Magic Is Magic » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:15 pm

giordunk wrote:Was starting to wonder where some current guys (Giannis and AD?) would start popping up.


I value longevity just like most others here, but the MVP is the hardest, most coveted award that anyone can win in the NBA. It is very hard for me to ignore someone with 2 MVPs when someone like Reggie Miller doesn't even have one top 5 finish.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:24 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:TImes in Top 5 in playoff WS:
Sam Jones* 5
Kevin McHale* 4
Dave Cowens* 2
Manu Ginóbili 2
Pau Gasol 2
Ray Allen* 2

Jones is only one left with 5 seasons in top 5 of playoff win shares -one of only 15 players.


"Top 5" should probably be looked at within the context of the playoff structure [and perhaps the league-size, too]. In an 8 or 9-team league where 6 teams go to the playoffs......probably shouldn't look at "top 5" status as the same as "top 5" in a 30-team league where 16 teams go to the playoffs. I mean, "top 10" in the latter circumstance is likely more impressive than "top 5" in the former.

Additionally, having a high total in playoff WS multiple seasons often comes by way of being a merely good player who is fortunate to have a consistent role on a REALLY good team [one that is guaranteed a deep run]. And even for the odd really good player who isn't riding anyone's coat-tails, it's a decidedly noisy "metric".


Just as an example [I really didn't have to look long to find this]: Charles Barkley was only top 10 in playoff WS THREE times in his career.
Just looking post-merger, here are a few notable names who had 4 or more top 10 finishes:
Jeff Hornacek (4)
Robert Horry (4)
Reggie Miller (5)
Horace Grant (5)
James Worthy (5)
Maurice Cheeks (5)
Draymond Green (5)

And here are some guys who tie him with 3 top-10 finishes in that span:
Robert Parish
*Bobby Jones (*has more if we include his ABA career)
Terry Porter
Bill Laimbeer
Gus Williams
Dennis Johnson
Rajon Rondo
Jerome Kersey
Cedric Maxwell
Tayshaun Prince
*Jamaal Wilkes (*if including pre-merger league)
John Salley

Guys like Tristan Thompson and James Posey are close with two each, fwiw.


Or if, regardless of league/playoff size, you want to stick to only top-5 finishes.....Barkley has just ONE.

A few post-merger players with one OR MORE:
James Worthy (4)
Horace Grant (3)
Gus Williams (3)
*Bobby Jones (2) [*more if include ABA]
Maurice Cheeks (2)
Shawn Kemp (2)
Rajon Rondo (2)
Robert Horry (2)
Sam Perkins (1)
Carlos Boozer (1)
Tyson Chandler (1)
Danny Ainge (1)
Dennis Johnson (1)
Cedric Maxwell (1)
Johnny Moore (1)
Steve Smith (1)
Sean Elliott (1)
Tayshaun Prince (1)
Richard Hamilton (1)
Roy Hibbert (1)
Dale Davis (1)
Toni Kukoc (1)
Charles Oakley (1)
Marcus Camby (1)


I'll stop there, but you kinda get the idea. It's not shaping out as a terribly meaningful criteria [for me, at least].

EDIT: fwiw, George Gervin was top 5 ONCE in his career, but it didn't stop you supporting him more than 10 places ago.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #48 

Post#20 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:25 pm

Vote 1 - Gary Payton
Vote 2 - Ray Allen
Vote 3 - Pau Gasol

McHale > Cowens > Manu for me


- 17 year career
- 9x all NBA (2 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd)
- 9x all defensive 1st team
- 1 top 3 and 7 top 10 MVP finishes
- 1x DPOY

Payton is one of the most complete players left on the board. Solid 9 year prime where he excelled on both ends of the floor. I don't think his average efficiency should bring him down that much as he ran some of the best offenses in the NBA during his prime, and he was an elite perimeter defender. His durability is also quite impressive: over his first 14 seasons, he only missed a total of 7 games, playing nearly 37 MPG (from 95-03, he played 39.6 MPG).

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