RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 (Ray Allen)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 (Ray Allen) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:22 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. ???

Last spot of the top half.......who will it be? Kevin McHale? Ray Allen? Manu Ginobili? Dwight Howard? (NOTE: It'd be helpful to state your order on those four regardless of your picks [if you haven't already].......I suspect it's going to be one of them).

I'll look to conclude this thread sometime around 7pm EST on Thursday.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:39 am

1st vote: Dwight Howard
Truly there are a number of guys on my immediate radar for this final spot: Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Ray Allen all feel perfectly appropriate to me as well. Everyone else in the immediate vicinity on my ATL have already been voted in. The next-closest competitors for me are probably Bob Lanier, Manu Ginobili, Allen Iverson, and Anthony Davis.......but they're all distinctly separated from the others noted above.

Popular opinion on Dwight has REALLY dwindled in the last half-dozen or so years. I feel people have forgotten just how good he was in that '09-'11 range. imo, he peaked in the same general vicinity as bigs like Anthony Davis and Patrick Ewing. This was a guy who was anchoring ON AVERAGE a -5.3 rDRTG during those three years (worst was -4.3, best was -6.4===>which, if I've counted right, is tied [with the '12 and '69 Celtics] for the 23rd-best defense EVER; 12 of those ahead belong to either Russell or Duncan [it's better than ANYTHING anchored by Dikembe, Hakeem, or Wilt]).
He did so without an assortment of true defensive specialists around him (decent ones, for sure; but not great ones).
They simultaneously managed to build some fairly successful offenses around him, by basically just surrounding him with shooters and daring teams to double-team him. Dwight was arguably the best big-man finisher outside of prime Shaq when he got the ball down low. He was just so strong and such an explosive leaper......teams were screwed if he got the ball down there.
Surrounded by mostly what I would call "good role players" he actually led one team to the NBA finals in this span.

While his prime dwindled very quickly after his back injury/surgery in '12, it's not like he was instantly ineffective. He still had some fair/decent years out to around '15 or so, and then of course a somewhat happy resurgence in a 6MOY-candidate kind of role for a title team last year. Not to mention he had a few fairly decent years BEFORE that '09-'11 span, too.
All-around it amounts to a career that looks relatively well-positioned for a top 50 placement, imo.


2nd vote: Kevin McHale
I'd be content with Ray Allen or Robert Parish too. But I'm gonna go with McHale. While his longevity is lesser than Allen or Parish, he peaked substantially higher imo, and his average prime year carries more value.
Although I think isolation scoring is generally overvalued by most, McHale was as good at as just about anyone ever. And though he's frequently not giving the ball back [not a playmaker to the degree he was called "the Black Hole"], I never found him to be a "ball-stopper"; always seemed like he was quick/decisive with it when he wanted to score (Dan Issel was the same, fwiw). And MAN could he put the ball in the bucket!
And then he provided solid defense on the other end, pretty versatile too (guarding 3-5 as needed), and frequently the Celtic's leading shot-blocker.


3rd vote: Ray Allen
I guess that aside from McHale and Dwight, Ray Ray is the other guy that feels the most out of place OUTSIDE the top 50 to me. So I'll cast my 3rd ballot on him.
Cool side-narrative with Allen is that in the year Iverson led the Sixers to the Finals and won his [dubious, imo] MVP in '01, the Ray Allen-led Bucks were the 2nd seed in the East. Both in record and SRS they were barely a lesser team than the Sixers. They advanced as far as the ECF, where they took the Sixers to 7 games (being outscored by just 2 pts for the entire series, although Iverson did miss one game [which the Bucks won]).

Ray Allen had a 27.1/3.3/5.4 on 61.4% TS with 2.1 topg statline in that series, btw (this in a slow defensive grudge-match era). AND his Bucks were the #1 offense in the league (Iverson's Sixers were 13th/29).

Food for thought. Peak Ray Allen was no joke.
Add to that we're talking about an 18-year [largely durable] career in which he was NEVER less than a decent role player.
tbh, I could potentially be convinced to move him up in my vote rotation.


The only other guy who I could conceivably seeing changing my vote to for this spot is Robert Parish (yeah: amazing longevity; that's the thing with him isn't it?).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:40 am

Players we are (or should be) talking about at this point:

PG -- Bob Cousy, Bob Davies, Kevin Johnson, Tony Parker
SG -- Manu Ginobili, Ray Allen, Sam Jones, Hal Greer
SF -- Adrian Dantley, Alex English, Paul Arizin, Tracy McGrady
PF -- Kevin McHale, Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Elvin Hayes, Giannis
Antetokounmpo
C -- Dwight Howard, Robert Parish, Dave Cowens, Ben Wallace, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Bill Walton, Dikembe Mutombo

So,

1. Manu Ginobili -- Limited minutes but reasonable career length and just seemed impressively impactful whenever he was on the court. I'd rate him over Kawhi Leonard for career value at this point in Kawhi's life.
2. Kevin McHale -- Similarly, a second option without great longevity but terrific offensive and defensive skills, willing to take a secondary role and be versatile on a winner.
3. Alex English -- Versatility seems to be a theme here. English doesn't have the stats of Adrian Dantley (though he's close) and probably even Ray Allen looks more impressive in raw stats after adjusting for pace, but English played many roles and always made his teams better no matter what role Denver played him in. One of the most underrated players in history despite having scored more in the 80s than Larry Bird, Isiah Thomas, Dominique Wilkins, Adrian Dantley, or well, anyone else in the game. Also won numerous citizenship awards, one of the great people to play the game.
---
Then: Adrian Dantley, Ray Allen, in that order.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#4 » by Odinn21 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:44 am

50. Ray Allen
He usually led his teams to great offensive efficiencies. Defense was a weak point for him in general but his understated off-ball presence on offense kind of negates that. Peak, prime level and duration, longevity, he has it all.
This was what I wrote in the Pierce vs. Allen thread;
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:The strongest seasons among these 2 players;
2001, 2005 for Allen & 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 Pierce.
I'd probably take 2001 Allen as the best but that's almost a tie and Pierce's just better on sheer number of seasons.

In 2005 and 2006, they were near the top of their form and Pierce was just better. Allen was better on offense, his efficiency and off-ball play were just massive. But he was quite a negative impact on defense. Pierce was also good on offense even though not just as much, but his defensive level was just way better than Allen's level.

I don't think there's a significant difference between their prime duration or overall longevity. So, Pierce is ahead of Allen for me since his prime level was higher on average.


51. Adrian Dantley
His prime level is just too good at this point and his prime lasted long enough. I feel like he shouldn't be separated from Pierce by a tier, and he should be in the next tier right after George Gervin. This was what I wrote about him in the Pierce vs. Dantley thread;
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:
Is Paul Pierce in the same category as either of these guys or is he the next level down with guys like Dominique Wilkins?

I feel like it goes something like this;
Pierce and Dantley in the same tier. English is half a tier below. Wilkins is at least one tier below than any of the other 3.

I never agreed with Dantley being a black hole or a ball stopper or being an ineffective 30 ppg scorer.
Interestingly, Magic's injury in 1989 NBA Finals has a huge impact on Dantley's career outlook.
The Bad Boys became contenders with Dantley's arrival in 1986. It feels very inaccurate to say Dantley was the problem when they went to game 7 in CF in '87 and game 7 in NBA Finals in '88 (could've won without the phantom foul on Abdul-Jabbar). Then Dantley was traded out for Aguirre and the Pistons win the title against one of the weakest competitions ever. Bam, Dantley's career outlook goes down the drain because there was no title with him but there's one without him at the first try.
Dantley's arrival, along with drastic improvement sophomore Dumars had, was the reason why the Pistons went from being 45-46W team with first or second round exit to being a contender.
And if his scoring wasn't impactful, the Jazz wouldn't be that successful in '84 and '85.

As for Dantley vs. English, I think Dantley peaked clearly higher for me. Prime to prime, I also see Dantley as clearly better than English. English just didn't match offensive quality and impact that Dantley had.
Also, I started a thread about similar comparison awhile back. You might want to take a look at the discussion on there.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1961034

Pierce vs. Dantley feels harder because Pierce wasn't the scorer Dantley was. OTOH, Pierce was in the top percentile in 10+ season RAPM. Yeah, we don't and can't have RAPM for the '80s but even though I'm high on Dantley's overall impact, I'm not that high. I can't put him in the top percentile impactful players in his time.
Pierce can't match Dantley's scoring, Dantley can't match Pierce's overall impact (defense and off-ball play being the major reasons). The era differences are always there to consider. I'd assume you ask about these SFs to figure out your preferences for the top 100 project? I currently have Pierce ahead of Dantley on there. That's probably because I usually have more confidence in my picks those I got to watch while their career was happening, not just relying on hindsight.


52. Kevin McHale
Well, TBH, I could change this but I feel and think that leaving out McHale out of my top 50 is the most uncomfortable pick, so, I have him in there. At least for now.

I have some thoughts about some notions;
Odinn21 wrote:- We're reaching to a point, postseason success wouldn't be taken for granted, let alone deep postseason runs.
What I mean is Ray Allen and Paul Pierce vs. Manu Ginobili and Chauncey Billups.
Manu Ginobili who was cracking under the managed load he was getting, Ginobili was a very impactful beast that you wouldn't be able to trust 75+ games per season and in each playoffs. I just don't see Ginobili doing what Ray Allen did in entire 2000-01 season and I don't see Ginobili making the playoffs with the teams Allen and Pierce had.
Billups wasn't as good or impactful as the other three.


Odinn21 wrote:I'd like to get a reason other than "Ginobili brought titles" for Ginobili because that's not what happened in general. Let's take a ride into the past, shall we?

2005- The postseason why Ginobili gets all the love in the world, but not some stick for what happened after.
2006- His overall production went up but his per possession efficiency, which made him great, went down. He was the reason why team fell behind the Mavs by 1-3 and he was also the reason why the game 7 was lost. That foul on Nowitzki right at the end in regular time was just utterly sh.tting the bed.
2007- This time, not only his overall production didn't went up, his per poss eff got worse again. His scoring efficiency got considerably worse. 2007 just doesn't stick out because the Spurs had a fairly easy ride to the title. The only contending team they faced was the Suns and we know what happened in that series. In the first 4 games of that series, Ginobili was 12/5/4 on .417 ts. Other than those games, it was a cakewalk for the Spurs and the issues Ginobili was having didn't grab much attention.
2008- He wasn't fully healthy against the Lakers. The Spurs were actual contenders up until Ginobili's health issues and because of that, they were just utterly outclassed by the Lakers. The only time Ginobili had a good game, the Spurs had a blowout by 19 points. That was the only Spurs win. In the 4 loses, Ginobili averaged 8/4/4 on .359 ts.
2009- He had missed 38 games in regular season and the entire playoffs.
2010- Similarly with 2006, his overall production went up, his per poss eff went down. Though I believe 2010 is the only time in his prime that can't be held against him other than 2005 for postseason issues.
2011- His injury and Duncan's mobility issues were the major reasons why the Spurs couldn't get out of the 1st rounds.

That's the end of prime Ginobili's timeline. Though if we continue;
2012- In the 4 straight games the Spurs lost to the Thunder, Ginobili underperforming was the major reason in 3 of those 4. He had a massive performance in game 5, he went 34/6/7 on .693 ts. In the other 3 games, he was 10/4/2 on .522 ts.
2013- He was also pretty bad against the Heat in the finals, other than game 5.

So, in short, Ginobili didn't brought success, championships as much as people like to believe. He was the reason why the Spurs were denied at a chance to repeat, twice.

Some statistical evidence of what I'm talking about. Ginobili had a very clear drop in his performance compared to regular season.
2006-11; 4.7 obpm in regular seasons vs. 3.3 obpm in playoffs (-1.4 obpm drop)
2006-13; 4.5 obpm in regular seasons vs. 2.7 obpm in playoffs (-1.8 obpm drop)

Particularly in 2006 Mavs series, first 4 games of 2007 Suns series, 2008 Lakers series, 2010 Suns series and 2011 Grizzlies series; 2.5 obpm. That's almost half of 4.7 obpm.
If we add 2012 Thunder series and 2013 Heat series to the already mentioned series; 1.9 obpm. That's less than half of 4.5 obpm.

When it got tough for the Spurs, when they faced a team that could beat them, Ginobili had major performance issues.


---

I got passed the psychological effect of the top 10 but apparently I haven't the top 50 effect. I don't agree with some of the latest picks. I wouldn't have Gasol, Billups, Reed and (a weak) maybe Leonard in my top 50. And with that, I'm kind of sad to see that only one of Allen/Dantley/McHale will make the top 50 because they are not left out on merit in my eyes.

---

I'm not a fan of going on in a declared thread.
penbeast0 wrote:Sam Jones is one of those guys like Cliff Hagan, Frank Ramsey, Walt Frazier, Hakeem Olujawon, Robert Horry etc. that seemed to step up their games in the playoffs and even more at key moments. How much you rate that over more consistent and outstanding regular season play is up to you. I don't have Sam Jones in yet but I don't think it's a silly argument.

I'm not saying it's silly or just flat-out wrong. The current pool is quite crowded and Jones' case doesn't look like a strong one.

BTW, I think you can add Dikembe Mutombo and Tony Parker to your shortlist. We're getting close to them IMO.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#5 » by Hal14 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:52 am

Hal14 wrote:1. Kevin McHale
2. Nate Thurmond
3. Bob Cousy

McHale - did everything you could want from a PF. He could score, he could rebound and is also one of the best post defenders of all time. He beat opposing bigs down the floor and had defensive versatility (at times would defend the 3, 4 and 5)..oh yeah and he won 3 championships, 5 NBA finals appearances. McHale had more effective post up moves than just about any player ever. Only other guys who really are in that conversation are Hakeem and Kareem.



Rebounding-wise he was excellent, especially considering he had to compete for rebounds with 2 other strong rebounders on his own team, Parish and Bird.

I think a good comparison for McHale is Pippen - it's pretty debatable IMO which was better. Both had really good team success while playing as the no. 2 guy alongside one of the best players ever (Bird, Jordan), both had good but not great longevity, both had a solid 3 or 4 years where they were arguably the best in the world at their position and a legit top 5 or 6 player in the league. McHale a better scorer, about even on D, maybe a slight edge on D for Pippen, Pippen did better as his team's no. 1 guy in 93-94 than McHale did in 88-89 but that was also post-surgery McHale playing in a more competitive league than Pippen played in 93-94. By 93-94 there was more expansion teams and the effect of all those additional teams was really starting to cause rosters to be more thin on talent.

Any case you make for Pippen to give him a small edge is canceled out by the fact that a) Pippen refused to go into the game in the final seconds of a crucial playoff game in 94 because his coach drew a play up for a teammate and b) Pippen selfishly sat out 1/2 the season in 97-98 because of a dispute with team management and c) Mchale was always a class act, teammates loved him, coaches loved him, respected by opponents and ALWAYS played, even if he was hurt like in the 87 NBA finals when he played through more pain than just about any player ever in order to try and help his team win a title. Pippen got voted in 14 rounds ago in this poll - how is it that Pippen got voted in 14 rounds ago yet McHale is still on the board? Recency bias.

McHale was not only versatile on defense (guarded the 3 at times with Bird guarding the 4, plus of course McHale guarded 4's and at times even guarded 5's when Parish sat down) but he also had the versatility of being highly effective in both half court offense and fast break offense. Everyone knows about his awesome low post moves in half court, but he was also excellent at running the floor in transition, beating his man down the court, out running and out working opposing bigs to get down court faster fopr easy buckets. Plus he hustled back on D to prevent fast break buckets by the opposition.

Plus McHale developed an effective outside shot in the mid range and even could hit 3's later in his career.

Let's compare McHale to Gasol, who's also getting some votes in this poll:

McHale was the better scorer by a decent margin and the better defender by a decent margin. Best post moves of any PF ever. More team success than Gasol, despite playing less seasons. And even though Gasol has a longevity edge, that edge isn't as significant when you consider his era was less physical, more days off in between games to recover, more advancements in nutrition, sports science, weight training, strength and conditioning, had better facilities, better equipment and even though he played more seasons, he did miss a ton of games during his career. In his 18 year career, Gasol played in 70+ games and 24+ MPG in the same season just 8 times. McHale did it 7 times.

1) Put Pau's Laker teams in the 80s and he wins 0 titles. Put the Bird/Parish/McHale Celtics in the 2000s and they win 5.

2) Range is comparable. McHale actually developed some really good range on his shot. Then again, it wasn't until both Gasol and McHale were past their prime before either of them really developed strong range, so not sure I would use that as much of a factor here. If we did factor it in, we'd have to account for difference in eras. By that I mean, Gasol simply had better range because in his era, that's the way the game was being played - especially from 2005 on - bigs had to be able to shoot from further away - and overall the entire league was shooting way more 3's than they did in McHale's era. It's like saying "Oh, Nash had better range than Isiah" well yeah no kidding! Look at the era they played in - nobody was shooting 3's in Isiah's era, when he was in college there was no 3 point shot - whereas Nash played in the era when the game revolved around the 3 and it was a much more emphasized part of the game.
3) Pau with superior passing to McHale? Eh, I don't see it as much of a difference there either. Maybe a slight edge for Gasol. The perception is that McHale is this black hole who never passes, but if you actually watch some of his footage you'll see lots of outstanding interior passing as well as good transition passing.

The slight edge Gasol has passing-wise can easily be chalked up to the fact a) he often times played in the high post where he could more easily see the entire floor, hit cutters or dump the ball in to a teammate in high post so it is less about him being a better passer and more about the way he was used on offense and b) he played in an era with less physicality and more floor spacing which makes it easier for him to make good passes whereas McHale played in an era with less spacing and more physicality, he gets the ball in the post with defenders draped all over him so all he could do is either kick the ball back out to the perimeter or try and score.

McHale is the better scorer by a decent margin and the better defender by a decent margin. 2nd best player on what many (including me) consider to be the greatest team of all time, the 86' Celtics. The year after that in 87, McHale finished no. 4 in MVP voting. Yes, despite the fact that he was on the same team as Bird (voted top 10 of all time in this poll, top 5 of all time according to many, including myself, coming off 3 straight MVPs), McHale was STILL top 4 in MVP voting that year. Pau played alongside Kobe, who was an MVP contender. Surely, if Pau is in the same conversation as McHale then Pau would have been an MVP contender while playing on the same team as Kobe (just like McHale was an MVP contender while playing alongside prime Bird), right? Wrong. This is Gasol while on Kobe's team:

2008 - no MVP votes
2009 - no MVP votes
2010 - no MVP votes (Chris Bosh, Stephen Jackson and Joe Johnson did get MVP votes though)
2011 - no MVP votes
2012 - no MVP votes
2013 - no MVP votes (Marc Gasol, Ty Lawson and David Lee did get MVP votes though)
2014 - no MVP votes

In fact, Gasol never once in his career got so much as one single point on the NBA MVP ballot.

McHale meanwhile got points in the MVP voting 3 times.
1986 - 13th in voting, 3 points
1987 - 4th in voting, 254 points
1991 - 19th in voting, 1 point

-McHale 7 all star games, Gasol 6
-Mchale 6 times on the all defensive team, Gasol 0
-McHale 1 time all NBA 1st team, Gasol 0
-McHale 0 times all NBA 2nd team, Gasol 1
-McHale would have undoubtedly made the all NBA 3rd team at least a couple of times but it didn't exist until end of Mchale's prime and after his foot surgery
-3 titles, 5 NBA finals appearances, 7 times in conference finals for McHale compared to 2 titles, 3 NBA finals appearances, 4 times in conference finals for Gasol

This gigantic edge in awards for McHale and going deeper into playoffs more times - despite the fact that he played 5 less seasons than Gasol.

Also keep in mind in 87 when Mchale had his best season - some even think he was even better than Bird that year - again, keep in mind this was Bird in his prime coming off 3 straight MVPs - yet in 87 McHale was seen by many people as just as good as Bird and seen by some people as even better. McHale was having his best season in 87, and the Celtics would have won the title but Mchale had a stress fracture in his foot as well as other key Celtics players who were hurt:

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-06-04-sp-4497-story.html

There's little doubt in my mind that a healthy Celtics team wins the title in 87. Then we're talking about a guy in Mchale who was not only the 2nd best player on the greatest team of all time in 86, but if the Celtics were healthy in 87 and won the title, Mchale would have been arguably the best player on possibly the 2nd greatest team of all time. Keep in mind, Magic says that he thinks 87 was the best team his Lakers ever had. That tells you how good that 87 Celtics team was when healthy.

Playing most of the 87 season with that severe foot injury resulted in a shorter career for McHale and resulted in him being less effective in his later seasons, but that's the way players played in his era. They were tough and they played through pain. They were warriors. And McHale should be recognized for that, and not penalized.

Lastly, I don't think there's really much debate that McHale was arguably the GOAT when it comes to scoring in the low post / most effective post moves. Hakeem? Kareem? Who else is even in the same conversation as McHale when it comes to low post moves/low post scoring? Gasol, meanwhile…is there anything that Gasol is arguably the GOAT at? Of course not.

In this ESPN poll, released in 2016, Mchale ranks as the no. 6 PF of all time, ahead of Pettit, ahead of Gasol, ahed of Schayes and ahead of every PF who is still on the board for this project.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/nbarankPFs/ranking-greatest-power-forwards-nba-history

Also in 2016, ESPN ranked McHale the no. 31 player of all time so I think it's about time we vote him in here as the no. 46 player.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/nbarank160201/all-nbarank-31-35

Nate Thurmond - right in that same tier with Reed, Gilmore and Ewing. I see those four centers as pretty debatable. Ewing, Gilmore and Reed all got voted in already - it's Thurmond's time now. Thurmond has a strong case for being better than all 3 of them (probably the best defender of the group, but Gilmore has the longevity and ABA Finals MVP, Reed has 2 Finals MVPs so I've got Thurmond just barely ranked behind those other guys).

Thurmond is one of the most underrated players of all time and is top 50, no question in my mind.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/defensive-dominator-thurmond-one-nbas-most-underrated-all-time

Thurmond went against Wilt, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Unseld, Bellamy, Beaty, Cowens, Reed - all in their prime. Yet he still managed:

-7 all star games in 14 seasons

-2 times all defensive 1st team, 3 times all defensive 2nd team...despite the fact that all defense awards didn't exist until his 6th season! Clearly one of the best defensive players of all time and one of the best rebounders of all time

-Did not make a 1st or 2nd team all NBA (obviously those usually went to Wilt/Kareem/Russell) but there's very little question he would have made quite a few all NBA 3rd team selections if it existed back when he played

-Finished 2nd in MVP voting in 66-67, finishing ahead of Russell, Robertson and Barry - Thurmond finished no. 2 behind Wilt who was no. 1. Finished 11th in 69-70, 8th in 70-7, 8th in 71-72, 9th in 72-73 and 8th in 73-74

-Helped his team to NBA Finals in 67, where they lost to arguably the greatest team of all time, the 67 Sixers. That series Thurmond averaged 14 PPG and 26.7 RPG while playing 47 MPG, going head to head vs Wilt. Thurmond's Warriors fell in 6 games to Wilt's Sixers. Let's compare that to the Eastern Division Finals - Russell (while also going against Wilt) averaged less PPG (11) and less RPG (23) than Thurmond, and Russell's Celtics lost in 5 games to Wilt's Sixers. How did Wilt do in each series? His numbers. were better in the Eastern Division Finals, going against Russell than they were in the NBA finals vs Thurmond. Wilt went from 21 PPG, 32 RPG and 10 APG vs Russell down to 17 PPG, 28 RPG and 6 APG vs Thurmond.
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#6 » by DQuinn1575 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:23 am

The Celtics played 9 game 7's in Sam Jones's career. They won all 9 en route to 10 titles.
Jones was lucky he played on the Celtics.
And the Celtics were real lucky to have the 6th best scorer in Game 7 history (minimum 5 games played).
And despite playing in one of lowest fg% shooting eras of the players involved, he shot well from the field, and very well from the line.
The Celtics margins 1,2,2,2,3,4,5,11, and 19 - so 7 wins by 5 points or less.
1969 - last game of his career on the road -10-16 from the field, all 4 free throws made - 24 points in a 2 point win.
He shot 49.3% from the field in an era where 45% is around the league average.

(If I make it 4 games then Durant and Curry outscore him, Jordan only played 3 Game 7's, and would barely beat out Durant)

Stats taken from B-Reference

So they won 9 game sevens, 7 by 5 points or less, and he scored 18 points or more, every game, shooting above league average, over 11 years.



Player PTS G Average FG% FT%

LeBron James 279 8 34.9 0.487 0.779
Jerry West 278 9 30.9 0.479 0.769
Elgin Baylor 263 9 29.2 0.415 0.859
Bob Pettit 175 6 29.2 0.400 0.743
Hakeem 136 5 27.2 0.496 0.632
Sam Jones 244 9 27.1 0.493 0.898
Larry Bird 216 8 27.0 0.497 0.951
Dirk Nowitzki 134 5 26.8 0.500 0.872
Charles Barkley 124 5 24.8 0.532 0.867
Tim Duncan 148 6 24.7 0.482 0.792
Wilt 220 9 24.4 0.626 0.451
Julius Erving 145 6 24.2 0.458 0.833
Patrick Ewing 167 7 23.9 0.485 0.694
Kobe Bryant 133 6 22.2 0.389 0.673
Elvin Hayes 133 6 22.2 0.451 0.622
Earl Monroe 110 5 22.0 0.457 0.703
Walt Frazier 108 5 21.6 0.519 0.897
Tom Heinsohn 145 7 20.7 0.448 0.610
Chris Paul 144 7 20.6 0.460 0.871
Jabbar 123 6 20.5 0.505 0.697
Billups 102 5 20.4 0.426 0.919
Kawhi Leonard 102 5 20.4 0.400 0.733
Dwyane Wade 158 8 19.8 0.415 0.878
Manu Ginóbili 118 6 19.7 0.493 0.927





1. Sam Jones - one of best playoff performers ever.
2. Dave Cowens - dominated league for 4-5 years, and was key player in 2 titles
3. Dwight Howard - great defender and rebounder, taking him over McHale, who I had here earlier, but feel is peak wasn't long enough.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#7 » by euroleague » Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:08 am

1. Bob Cousy
2. Bill Walton
3. Kevin McHale

1. Cousy was a revolutionary player in the NBA, and he was a huge contributor on many championship teams. His stats may not have been good, but as a PG, much of his impact wasn't in his scoring stats. His elite playmaking set the stage for Russell's passing to develop, and his transition offense helped the defense by tiring out opponents. It's no coincidence that the Celtics were consistently first in ppg - his offense also allowed for offensive rebounding to be more effective.

Many people hating on Cousy never actually watched these games. I myself haven't watched enough of them to be an expert, but what I have seen of Cousy has him as an elite floor general whose impact went far beyond his stats.

2. Bill Walton - This may be a lot higher than most have him, but his run at his best was so elite, both in the regular and post-season, i feel comfortable putting him this high. MVP, FMVP, would've won DPOOY, 6MOY with the Celtics on a GOAT level team. McHale had a bigger role on those teams, and will probably be my next selection, but Walton's brief period of being arguably the best player in the league, and winning Portland's only title, put him this high for me.

3. Kevin McHale - One of the best post players ever, and the second man on one of the greatest teams ever. He was the Scottie Pippen of the 80s, except with a higher peak and less availability. Although he was a terrible passer, his defense and elite offensive efficiency compensated for that more than well enough to make him an MVP candidate in a very competitive era - which separates him from the the remaining candidates.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#8 » by Dutchball97 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:16 pm

1. Manu Ginobili - The main case for Manu is his play-off production. He's 20th in play-off WS and 19th in play-off VORP for his career, both of which is the best of anyone left. While he played relatively low minutes, it's not like he has no significant regular season production to speak of either. In the regular season he's 71st in WS and 39th in VORP. Besides that his 2005 peak is one of the strongest peaks left and is only rivaled by players with significantly worse longevity like Walton and AD. His VORP in the 2005 play-offs is the 31st highest single season play-off VORP, only behind 13 players who were all voted in the top 20 in this project. His single season play-off WS is surprisingly (since WS seems to favor bigs more as well as seasons before 74 being avaiable unlike with VORP) also 31st. Which is only behind AD and Dwight among players still on the table. I definitely understand the criticisms of Manu with him playing on stacked teams, playing low minutes, being inconsistent year to year in the play-offs but for the #50 spot I don't think those criticisms are enough to not vote for someone who has the most play-off production of anyone left, while also having one of the strongest peaks left available.

2. Kevin McHale - He has a similar case as Pau Gasol imo. Not quite an elite first option but he provides more than you can reasonably expect from your second best player, which played a major part in the Celtics' success in the mid 80s. Somewhat similar to Manu as well in that he's a bit inconsistent year to year in the post-season but he's right behind Manu at 21th in career play-off VORP. His regular season longevity is better than Manu and even more than that probably one of the best left available as well but his imo somewhat lower peak makes me slot him just behind Manu (who I had just ahead of Gasol for that matter too). My biggest criticism of McHale is that he wasn't able to bring his incredible 1987 season to a positive conclusion in the play-offs but it only puts him behind Manu and Pau for me in terms of players I'd otherwise probably have him ahead of.

3. Ray Allen - I'm still a big Arizin supporter and I think he should be voted in sooner than later. Someone with solid longevity and him leading his team to a title as arguably the best player in the entire league is something not a lot of candidates can match at this point but I don't want to add to the large cluster of player that is already getting votes for now with so many good candidates on a similar level out there. Besides Arizin, this spot came down to Ray Allen and Dwight Howard. Allen has the slight edge in total career production, while Dwight has the longer and more consistent prime especially in the regular season. Dwight only really has 2009 in terms of high end post-seasons, while Allen has a couple of really good play-offs though. That significant edge in the play-offs in my eyes is the difference maker.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#9 » by DQuinn1575 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:30 pm

In terms of accolades and how they were viewed, neither Allen, McHale, or Dantley look a lot better than Jones.
I also added GInobili
Jones has 3 mvp finishes better than any of the others' second best, and made all-nba more times than the others.
Obviously there are other factors to consider, but based on how they were viewed, Jones as a legitimate case to be
ranked at least comparable to these guys on regular season alone.

Ray Allen
mvp - 9th, 11th
All-NBA -1 2nd, 1 3rd (note others played without 3rd team selections)


Kevin McHale
mvp -4th,13th, 19th
All-NBA 1 1st team

Adrian Dantley
mvp -7,12,14,15,16
All-NBA 2 2nd team


Sam Jones

mvp - 4,5,9 (note 1967 only has 5 leading vote getters, as 2nd team all-league he probably would have added fringe 11-15th place)
all-nba 3 2nd teams (note - 5 times 2nd team by players for The Sporting News)


Ginobli
mvp 8,10,11
all-nba - 2 3rd teams
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#10 » by Joao Saraiva » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:56 pm

Votes
1. Dwight Howard
2. Manu Ginobili
3. Adrian Dantley


Not a popular choice here but I'm going with Dwight.

I'm super high on his peak and 3 year prime (09-11). He was a ultra defensive force at the time, and seeing those Magic teams rank #1 in DRTG is in large part due to his play. Mobile, fast, great rim protector, covered a lot of ground at his size... he was just amazing.

On offense he wasn't a great shot creator for himself or for others, but he was always an effective offensive force in PnR situations as a roll player. He also forced a ton of fouls and would use the size and strenght mismatch in the post when he had that chance.

3 times DPOY, 8 times all-star, 4 times in the top 5 MVP votes and I believe he should have won it in 2011.

His longevity isn't brutal but it's good, and he's still adding to it today in a smaller role, since he was still useful and got along with it in the Lakers last season.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#11 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:43 pm

50. Dave Cowens
-Great combination of scoring, rebounding, defense and playmaking which led to very high win teams
-Very strong playoff performer, averaging 18.9/14.4/3.7 for his career. Led league in ps win shares in 76 despite not getting fmvp
-career treb% of 17.1 and ast % of 13.7 which are both good for a pf/c(Shaq's career %'s were 17.8/13.9)
-2x nba champ
-1x nba mvp
-4x top 4 in mvp voting(shows how highly regarded he was in his era)
-3x all nba 2nd team
-3x all defensive(1x 1st, 2x 2nd)
-Had 4 years with a ts+ above 100 in his prime so wasn't that inefficient as a scorer
-prime length of 9 years imo which is right there with most players despite career more or less ending at 31

51. Sam Jones
-Going with Jones here for sustained excellence in both rs and ps and obviously his role in the greatest dynasty in nba history which I think his role in is probably underrated in general. I'm just going to go through and post his rank on those teams in win shares for both the rs and ps from 62-67 to show what I am talking about. rs first and ps second(62-66 all being title teams)
62: 2nd 2nd
63: 2nd 2nd
64: 2nd 1st
65: 2nd 2nd
66: 2nd 2nd
67: 4th 1st(tie)
So as we can see and which the actual numbers do a better job of showing is the degree to which it was Russell and Jones at the top and then usually quite a large gap between them and everyone else on those teams. His role on 5 of those title teams was very large which is something no one else left can match when it comes to contributing to post season success imo(granted Cousy could be argued but I think Jones was better).

-3x all nba 2nd team
-3x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 4th)
-6 seasons averaging over 19ppg with career ts+ of 104(highly efficient for a wing)
-5 playoff runs averaging over 23ppg all at or above .516 ts%(when league average was under 50%)
-career ws/48 of .182 which ranks 35th all time
-known as clutch playoff scorer
-from 1962-1966 the Celtics played in 6 decisive game 5 or game 7's and Jones averaged 32.5ppg in those games which were all wins(most by 3 pts or less).

52. Ray Allen
-I considered Arizin and a few others here but I like Ray's well rounded offensive game to go with his all time level 3 pt shooting and playoff runs pre Celtics where he showed he can shine as a #1 option. Ray is a guy who I think adds a lot to any team in his prime as a #1-3 option. Showed how well he could do that in 2008 where he also ranked 2nd in ps win shares while winning a title.
-2x all nba(1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)
-7 seasons with a vorp above 4.0(that's almost as many as Pau and Dwight had combined)
-ranks 29th in career points scored on a ts+ of 110(5% above league average)
-ranks 28th in career vorp
-ranks 29th in career playoff win shares
-2x nba champ
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#12 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:36 pm

Vote 1 - Ray Allen
Vote 2 - Dwight Howard
Vote 3 - Kevin McHale

Cowens > Ginobili > Sam Jones > Cousy for me


Allen put together one of the more complete and consistent careers in league history. He was a productive player for each of his 18 seasons, widely considered a top 5 shooter of all time, top 10 at worst. His best combo of volume and efficiency came in 05-06 when he put up 33.9 pts per 100 on 59% TS/118 ORtg (+5.4 rTS).

In his prime you could count on solid volume, elite efficiency, 3 level scoring and adequate playmaking/defense for a SG. From 99-04 his rTS ranged from +5 to a whopping +9.2. He would seamlessly transition into a lesser albeit crucial off ball role on the celtics, and extend his career with the heat with continued success.

His game tying 3 in game 6 of the 2013 finals required savant-level footwork. That was all muscle memory and a testament to the work he put into this game. He's certainly deserving of a spot in the top 50.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:35 pm

Thru post #12:

Ray Allen - 2 (Clyde Frazier, Odinn21)
Dwight Howard - 2 (Joao Saraiva, trex_8063)
Manu Ginobili - 2 (Dutchball97, penbeast0)
Kevin McHale - 1 (Hal14)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


Perhaps 24 hours or just over left for this one.


Spoiler:
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DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#14 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:29 am

Again transferring from page two of the last thread....

DQuinn1575 wrote:Totally agree - if Sam Jones was on Detroit he would have no championships.
But here's where I struggle, and you can maybe help me in my thinking.

Let's say Russell is just slightly below Jordan.
And Let's say Jordan = 5.0 championships, Pippen 0.8, Grant 0.2
and Russell = 4.9 rings
(numbers are for illustration, you can change them to whatever values, as long as Russell isnt higher than Jordan, based on
fact the group ranked Jordan higher)

....

Thoughts?


Well, my first thought was that---while I know the numbers are just for illustration---the suggested numbers are a bit "out there" at least within the context of discussing "title shares" as determined by WS [which is what we've been doing].

My second thought was that there's an obvious logical fallacy in the above:
Why must Russell be lower than Jordan? You assert it's because we ranked Jordan higher--->basically implying our ranking MUST follow the ranking that a WS-based "title shares" stipulates.......that's the very thing many of us have been arguing AGAINST [myself stating directly that I'm finding this metric to be of very little value at all].

Further if you do feel it's the gold standard, as it were, then you should have been voting for Sam Jones way back around #4.


While I know we'll not see eye-to-eye on this, my thoughts were otherwise that I'm not finding any "WS during title years" metric to be of much use.
I thought that a "title share" system might do a little better job than some of those you'd cited, but I was mistaken: it too is basically just a slight augmentation of ring-counting, where certain massive load-carrying giants [e.g. Lebron, Jordan, Wilt, Mikan] rise to a higher rank that a simple ring-count would put them, while guys who range somewhere between role player and B-list star [e.g. Horry, Fisher, K.C. Jones, Sanders, Heinsohn, and to a somewhat lesser degree: Sam Jones] rank a little lower than where a simple ring-count would place them. But it's otherwise very reflective of a ring count.


I looked somewhat extensively into this "title shares" as measured by WS in title years, and am pretty confident I've identified the top 44 of all-time [there's then a small but noticeable gap to #45, which makes me wonder if I've missed someone, so I'll stop at #44]; they're as follows (with title share in parentheses):

1. Bill Russell (*around 3 or so) [*didn't actually figure his exactly, but conservatively it will be at least in the 2.8-3 range, and quite possibly around 3.5; it's assured no one else is particularly close]
2. George Mikan (*2.228) [*he has 1.728 shares for his BAA/NBA career. We don't have WS for his two NBL titles in '47 and '48 (which are included for consideration in this project); even assuming a very conservative 0.25 share for each, that brings him to 2.228 (the reality may be higher).
3. Michael Jordan (1.770)
4. Sam Jones (1.522)
5. Tim Duncan (1.285)
6. Magic Johnson (1.280)
7. John Havlicek (1.238)
8. Lebron James (1.186)
9. Kobe Bryant (1.144)
10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1.080)
11. Scottie Pippen (1.025)
12. Shaquille O'Neal (1.016)
13. Tom Heinsohn (1.003)
14. Robert Horry (0.966)
15. Julius Erving (*0.961) [*0.832 of that is in the ABA]
16. Larry Bird (0.892)
17. Frank Ramsey (0.869)
18. Roger Brown (*0.767) [*all in the ABA]
19. Tom Sanders (0.746)
20. Manu Ginobili (0.712)
21. Wilt Chamberlain (0.665)
22. Vern Mikkelsen (0.664)
23. Don Nelson (0.656)
24. Horace Grant (0.632)
25. Bill Sharman (0.621)
26. Jim Pollard (*0.620) [*has 0.520 in BAA/NBA; estimated 0.1 share for NBL title in '48]
27. Dwyane Wade (0.604)
28. Stephen Curry (0.599)
29. Mel Daniels (*0.582) [*all in ABA]
30. Bob Cousy (0.570)
31. James Worthy (0.5515)
32. Pau Gasol (0.545)
33. K.C. Jones (0.531)
34. Hakeem Olajuwon (0.520)
35. Walt Frazier (0.514)
36. Draymond Green (0.490)
37. Derek Fisher (0.481)
38. Kevin McHale (0.466)
39. Dennis Rodman (0.462)
40. Kawhi Leonard (0.455)
41. Slater Martin (0.450)
42. Kevin Durant (0.4434)
43. Ron Harper (0.4432)
44. Connie Hawkins (*0.440) [*all in ABA]
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#15 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:13 am

trex_8063 wrote:Again transferring from page two of the last thread....

DQuinn1575 wrote:Totally agree - if Sam Jones was on Detroit he would have no championships.
But here's where I struggle, and you can maybe help me in my thinking.

Let's say Russell is just slightly below Jordan.
And Let's say Jordan = 5.0 championships, Pippen 0.8, Grant 0.2
and Russell = 4.9 rings
(numbers are for illustration, you can change them to whatever values, as long as Russell isnt higher than Jordan, based on
fact the group ranked Jordan higher)

....

Thoughts?


Well, my first thought was that---while I know the numbers are just for illustration---the suggested numbers are a bit "out there" at least within the context of discussing "title shares" as determined by WS [which is what we've been doing].

My second thought was that there's an obvious logical fallacy in the above:
Why must Russell be lower than Jordan? You assert it's because we ranked Jordan higher--->basically implying our ranking MUST follow the ranking that a WS-based "title shares" stipulates.......that's the very thing many of us have been arguing AGAINST [myself stating directly that I'm finding this metric to be of very little value at all].

Further if you do feel it's the gold standard, as it were, then you should have been voting for Sam Jones way back around #4.


While I know we'll not see eye-to-eye on this, my thoughts were otherwise that I'm not finding any "WS during title years" metric to be of much use.
I thought that a "title share" system might do a little better job than some of those you'd cited, but I was mistaken: it too is basically just a slight augmentation of ring-counting, where certain massive load-carrying giants [e.g. Lebron, Jordan, Wilt, Mikan] rise to a higher rank that a simple ring-count would put them, while guys who range somewhere between role player and B-list star [e.g. Horry, Fisher, K.C. Jones, Sanders, Heinsohn, and to a somewhat lesser degree: Sam Jones] rank a little lower than where a simple ring-count would place them. But it's otherwise very reflective of a ring count.


I looked somewhat extensively into this "title shares" as measured by WS in title years, and am pretty confident I've identified the top 44 of all-time [there's then a small but noticeable gap to #45, which makes me wonder if I've missed someone, so I'll stop at #44]; they're as follows (with title share in parentheses):

1. Bill Russell (*around 3 or so) [*didn't actually figure his exactly, but conservatively it will be at least in the 2.8-3 range, and quite possibly around 3.5; it's assured no one else is particularly close]
2. George Mikan (*2.228) [*he has 1.728 shares for his BAA/NBA career. We don't have WS for his two NBL titles in '47 and '48 (which are included for consideration in this project); even assuming a very conservative 0.25 share for each, that brings him to 2.228 (the reality may be higher).
3. Michael Jordan (1.770)
4. Sam Jones (1.522)
5. Tim Duncan (1.285)
6. Magic Johnson (1.280)
7. John Havlicek (1.238)
8. Lebron James (1.186)
9. Kobe Bryant (1.144)
10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1.080)
11. Scottie Pippen (1.025)
12. Shaquille O'Neal (1.016)
13. Tom Heinsohn (1.003)
14. Robert Horry (0.966)
15. Julius Erving (*0.961) [*0.832 of that is in the ABA]
16. Larry Bird (0.892)
17. Frank Ramsey (0.869)
18. Roger Brown (*0.767) [*all in the ABA]
19. Tom Sanders (0.746)
20. Manu Ginobili (0.712)
21. Wilt Chamberlain (0.665)
22. Vern Mikkelsen (0.664)
23. Don Nelson (0.656)
24. Horace Grant (0.632)
25. Bill Sharman (0.621)
26. Jim Pollard (*0.620) [*has 0.520 in BAA/NBA; estimated 0.1 share for NBL title in '48]
27. Dwyane Wade (0.604)
28. Stephen Curry (0.599)
29. Mel Daniels (*0.582) [*all in ABA]
30. Bob Cousy (0.570)
31. James Worthy (0.5515)
32. Pau Gasol (0.545)
33. K.C. Jones (0.531)
34. Hakeem Olajuwon (0.520)
35. Walt Frazier (0.514)
36. Draymond Green (0.490)
37. Derek Fisher (0.481)
38. Kevin McHale (0.466)
39. Dennis Rodman (0.462)
40. Kawhi Leonard (0.455)
41. Slater Martin (0.450)
42. Kevin Durant (0.4434)
43. Ron Harper (0.4432)
44. Connie Hawkins (*0.440) [*all in ABA]


As you said the numbers are just for illustration. And I called them rings and championships - not title shares or win shares. I'm ambivalent what metric or basis you choose to use to come up with a value, it can be RAPM, CORP, whatever. It doesnt matter how you get there, as long as there is some logic or basis.
And I'm assuming that the majority of people ranking players are doing it based on championships won, or championships they would win in a normal setting.
And Russell and his teammates did win 11 titles. Now you can discount them for era strength, or discount them for whatever luck factor or regression.
And Jordan and his teammates won 6 - you can make whatever adjustments you feel appropriate.
And you, and the majority of voters. picked Jordan over Russell (as did I). Which I think means that the majority of voters think that Jordan in his career, would contribute to more championships than Russell.

And Pippen is 3rd, behind Jordan and Russell. So I'm trying to reconcile the math, or answer the question, how much value do the teammates of Russell deserve?
I'm hopeful you can answer this or at least help me in my thinking.
Thanks I appreciate it.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:46 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
As you said the numbers are just for illustration. And I called them rings and championships - not title shares or win shares. I'm ambivalent what metric or basis you choose to use to come up with a value, it can be RAPM, CORP, whatever. It doesnt matter how you get there, as long as there is some logic or basis.
And I'm assuming that the majority of people ranking players are doing it based on championships won, or championships they would win in a normal setting.
And Russell and his teammates did win 11 titles. Now you can discount them for era strength, or discount them for whatever luck factor or regression.
And Jordan and his teammates won 6 - you can make whatever adjustments you feel appropriate.
And you, and the majority of voters. picked Jordan over Russell (as did I). Which I think means that the majority of voters think that Jordan in his career, would contribute to more championships than Russell.

And Pippen is 3rd, behind Jordan and Russell. So I'm trying to reconcile the math, or answer the question, how much value do the teammates of Russell deserve?
I'm hopeful you can answer this or at least help me in my thinking.
Thanks I appreciate it.


In response to the bolded: I don't know. Some [and more than a little], certainly. And how much specifically to Sam Jones? I don't know [though obviously I err toward thinking you may be over-estimating it].

All of the above [which btw I edited in Don Nelson.....forgot about him, but he made the cut easily in "title shares"] is me sorta spinning out-of-control on the idea of using WS specifically in title-winning years as the means of measure (top 2 on a title team).
Even if one wants to put aside the rs and focus exclusively on the playoffs, top 2 on a title team is basically ignoring great playoff runs by guys like [just as a handful of recent examples]: Kawhi in '17, Steph Curry in '19, Draymond Green in '16, Jimmy Butler last year, Nikola Jokic [and Jamal Murray, for that matter] last year, James Harden in '15, and Lebron James in any of '14, '15, '17, or '18.
Their amazing playoff runs are rendered irrelevant by such a metric.

Prior to that you'd cited top 5 in playoff WS, though that too is going to preferentially select for players on the two teams that go the distance: in the last 10 years, players from the two teams in the finals make up 4 of the top 5 every year except '18 (only 3 of the top 5 that year), and sometimes make up 5 of the top 6 or 6 of top 7.

I thought a detailed title share [WS based] might be a little different, but it's not. It's telling that 10 of the top 33 EVER (and 8 of the top 25) are Bill Russell and his long-time teammates.
I mean, in going out to NINE different teammates, we've pretty much by definition encompassed multiple guys who are pure role players, nothing more. Decent players to be sure, but hardly guys who are [individually] true driving forces for title success.

To me it's all suggestive that a) Bill Russell was really dominant, and b) he had some really DEEP supporting casts.

Was Sam Jones the best of these deep supporting casts? Certainly some years he was. However, his standing as the clear tops in this metric among all the other Russell-supporters is probably mostly simply a function him having played more years next to Russell than anyone else listed.
Was he actually the best teammate on average [averaging ALL years he played with Russell]? idk, maybe. But as an example: I personally feel Havlicek was a better player in his career, and suspect that if he'd been fortunate enough to play 12 of his 16 seasons alongside Russell [instead of only 7], he'd have left Jones behind in this metric.

Where does that leave us? I don't know that either. That's for you to decide. I'm just providing a little information combined with my rambling perspective. Take it or leave it.


My last thought was to comment that I don't think everyone [at least I don't] ranks players solely based upon their ability to contribute to titles (however we choose to "measure" that).

A good example, perhaps, is a player I may be reluctantly supporting sometime soon: Allen Iverson. I have to concede that he's difficult to build a true contender around because he's always going to shoot a little more than his efficiency dictates that he should, that he's not going to willingly defer to other offensive stars, and that he may create some locker-room issues ["I mean we're talkin' 'bout practice"].
otoh, he's a pretty good floor-raiser.......and that's not worthless [not to me, anyway].

I'll stop there. Cheers.... :beer:
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#17 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:16 pm

trex_8063 wrote:

Even if one wants to put aside the rs and focus exclusively on the playoffs, top 2 on a title team is basically ignoring great playoff runs by guys like
[just as a handful of recent examples]: Kawhi in '17, Steph Curry in '19, Draymond Green in '16, Jimmy Butler last year, Nikola Jokic [and Jamal Murray, for that matter]
last year, James Harden in '15, and Lebron James in any of '14, '15, '17, or '18.
Their amazing playoff runs are rendered irrelevant by such a metric..

So let's look at those amazing playoff runs compared to Sam Jones, ranked by w/s per 48 to eliminate games played


Player G MP WS WS/48
2017 Kawhi Leonard 12 429 2.8 0.314
1964 Sam Jones* 10 356 2.1 0.290
2017 LeBron James 18 744 4.3 0.275
2014 LeBron James 20 763 4.3 0.270
2018 LeBron James 22 922 5.2 0.269
2020 Jimmy Butler 21 806 3.5 0.209
1963 Sam Jones* 13 450 1.9 0.206
2015 James Harden 17 636 2.7 0.202
1965 Sam Jones* 12 495 2.0 0.195
2019 Stephen Curry 22 846 3.3 0.185
1966 Sam Jones* 17 602 2.2 0.179
2020 Jamal Murray 19 753 2.7 0.174
2015 LeBron James 20 844 3.0 0.173
2020 Nikola Jokić 19 694 2.5 0.172
2016 Draymond Green 23 879 3.1 0.171
1962 Sam Jones* 14 504 1.5 0.143

- Jones is 2nd best of the amazing runs, and non LeBron comes in 2,4,6,8 in 4 years; his 3rd best is ahead of Curry, Murray, Jokic, Green.
The non LeBron amazing runs are at a .204 WS/48
Jones's 5 year AVERAGE is .203 WS/48.
So 5 years in a row he did great in the playoffs.

And your call was real good - comparing to win shares - you picked 11 runs,

3 of 3 top 1
2 of 2 top 2
3 of 4 top 3
2 top 4
1 missed top 5 (Jokic)

So your thoughts were pretty much in line with the metric.

2014 LeBron James 1
2017 LeBron James 1
2018 LeBron James 1
2015 LeBron James 2
2019 Stephen Curry 2
2015 James Harden 3
2016 Draymond Green 3
2019 Nikola Jokić 3
2020 Jimmy Butler 3
2014 Paul George 4
2016 Russell Westbrook 4
2017 Kawhi Leonard 4
2018 Al Horford 4
2020 Jamal Murray 4
2015 Tristan Thompson 5
2016 Klay Thompson 5
2018 Clint Capela 5
2020 Bam Adebayo 5


Which is why I started with top 5 playoff runs, to look at great playoff runs, and try to determine how to incorporate playoff runs in my rankings. And thiought Jones will do well, but did better than I thought. As did Chauncey Billups, so I felt pretty good about him getting rating so highly.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#18 » by sansterre » Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:45 pm

1. Dwight Howard - I'll be honest. TRex got to me. Howard absolutely led a team to the Finals with a team of basically skilled role-players. And this wasn't like the '01 Sixers; the '09 Magic were actually really good and beat one of the best regular season teams ever in the '09 Cavs. He does suffer from a longevity problem. His peak was extreme but he wasn't at it for *that* long before he got hobbled. But I think that, on reflection, if you're at the level where you can carry a modest (albeit perfectly tailored) supporting cast to the Finals in a non-fluky way, even a narrow peak deserves some serious credit.

2. Ray Allen - Ugh, Odinn's infected me with his DBPM-skepticism. Ultimately the argument for Ginobili over Allen is basically . . . that Ginobili got more steals/blocks. Allen put up comparable offensive numbers to Ginobili and he did it FOR EVER. And, frankly, he's got pretty comparable playoff WS/48 to Sam Jones, which is impressive because Jones played with Bill Russell and Allen (though he had his moments on stronger teams) reeeeeally didn't. If anyone can throw decent data at me that Allen was a serious liability on defense (or that Ginobili was an excellent defender while Allen was weak in that area) I am happy to change this ranking. I don't know if Allen merits this, but his offensive productivity plus longevity is pretty impressive.

3. Manu Ginobili - Good scorer, good passer, good defender, solid rebounder in his peak for a 2. Yeah he didn't play a ton of minutes and yeah he had occasional playoff struggles but his AuRPMs at his peak are insanely high.

And again. Seriously. Just say the word on T-Mac. We can make this happen.
"If you wish to see the truth, hold no opinions."

"Trust one who seeks the truth. Doubt one who claims to have found the truth."
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:39 am

Thru post #18:

Dwight Howard - 3 (Joao Saraiva, sansterre, trex_8063)
Ray Allen - 2 (Clyde Frazier, Odinn21)
Manu Ginobili - 2 (Dutchball97, penbeast0)
Kevin McHale - 1 (Hal14)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


So we have 11 total votes, requiring 6 for a majority. We'll have to eliminate those bottom four, which transfers one to Allen, one to Howard, and ghosts the other two....

Howard - 4
Allen - 3
Manu - 2
(ghosted) - 2

So Manu gets eliminated next, which transfers one more to Ray Ray, and ghosts the other.....

Howard - 4
Allen - 4
(ghosted) - 3

The 3 ghost votes are Hal14, euroleague, and penbeast0. penbeast0's comments have suggested that he favours Ray over Howard [he can correct me if I've misinterpreted].

Allen - 5
Howard - 4
(unclear ghosted) - 2 [Hal14 and euroleague: quick as you can state your pick between Ray Allen and Dwight Howard]

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience." -George Carlin

"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
DQuinn1575
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #50 

Post#20 » by DQuinn1575 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:46 am

trex_8063 wrote:Thru post #18:

Dwight Howard - 3 (Joao Saraiva, sansterre, trex_8063)
Ray Allen - 2 (Clyde Frazier, Odinn21)
Manu Ginobili - 2 (Dutchball97, penbeast0)
Kevin McHale - 1 (Hal14)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


So we have 11 total votes, requiring 6 for a majority. We'll have to eliminate those bottom four, which transfers one to Allen, one to Howard, and ghosts the other two....

Howard - 4
Allen - 3
Manu - 2
(ghosted) - 2

So Manu gets eliminated next, which transfers one more to Ray Ray, and ghosts the other.....

Howard - 4
Allen - 4
(ghosted) - 3

The 3 ghost votes are Hal14, euroleague, and penbeast0. penbeast0's comments have suggested that he favours Ray over Howard [he can correct me if I've misinterpreted].

Allen - 5
Howard - 4
(unclear ghosted) - 2 [Hal14 and euroleague: quick as you can state your pick between Ray Allen and Dwight Howard]

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].

Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
[/quote]


Eliminating those bottom 4 should be called The Boston Massacre

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