Spoiler:
Overall SRS: My combo-SRS from the regular season and playoffs as discussed in the master thread
Standard Deviations: Standard Deviations of Overall SRS from the league mean.
When I post the roster makeup of the team, I try and do it by playoff minutes. The numbers are age, regular season BPM and Playoff BPM (basketball-reference's BPM is being used here).
So if I say: "C: Vlade Divac (22), +2.3 / +4.3" I mean that Vlade Divac was their center, he was 22, he had a BPM of +2.3 in the regular season and a +4.3 in the playoffs. Yes, BPM misses out on a lot of subtle stuff but I thought it a good quick-hits indicator of the skills of the players.
I also list the playoff players (20+ MPG) in order of OLoad (which is usage that integrates assists) and it has everyone's per game average for minutes, points, rebounds, assists and stocks (steals plus blocks), but all of those (including minutes) are adjusted for pace.
I then cover the three highest players in scoring per 100 (with their true shooting relative to league average) and the three highest players in Assists per 100. I realize that these are arbitrary, but I wanted a quick-hits reference for how these teams' offenses ran.
I then talk about Heliocentrism, Wingmen and Depth. Basically I add up all of the team's VORP (again, basketball-reference) and then figure out what percentage of that VORP comes from the #1 player (Heliocentrism), from the #2 and 3 players combined (Wingmen) and Depth (everyone else). I include the ranking among the top 100 for reference. There are only 82 of these rankings, because 18 teams pre-date BPM/VORP, so I only have 82 to work with. I'm not saying that these are particularly meaningful, I just thought they were cool.
Playoff Offensive Rating: Amount by which your playoff offensive rating exceeds the offensive rating you'd expect given the regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents. If you would be expected to post a 99 given your opponents but you post a 104, that's graded as +5. This way we can compare across eras.
Playoff Defensive Rating is the same as Offensive Rating, just the opposite.
Playoff SRS: Is SRS measured *only* in the playoffs. Overall SRS is a mix of both playoffs and regular season.
Total SRS Increase Through Playoffs: Basically their Overall SRS minus their Regular Season SRS. This is basically how much better a team did in the playoffs than you'd guess, relative to their regular season performance.
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: The average regular season offensive rating of your playoff opponents.
Average Playoff Opponent Defense: The average regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents.
Rankings of any kind are out of my list. So if I say that the '91 Lakers had the 42nd best regular season offense, I don't mean "42nd best of All-Time", I mean "42nd best of my Top 100 Teams of All_Time". Which will be pretty comparable, but I want to be clear about this.
I also walk through the playoffs at each round, covering their opponent their SRS (at that time), how many games the series was, the margin of victory (and a "+" is always in the favor of the discussed team; losing a series by +2.0 means that you outscored the other team by two points a game on average despite losing) and for reference I put in an SRS equivalency (beat a +5 SRS team by 5 points a game, that's an equivalent +10 SRS series).
In later entries I also add the Offensive and Defensive Ratings for each playoff series. This is just how well the team did, adjusted by the opponent's regular season average (if you play a team with an average Defensive Rating of 102, and you play them with an offensive rating of 106, you get credited with a +4). Pace for teams below 1973 or so is estimated based on regular season numbers, so it could easily be wrong by some.
In writeups, if I ever say a player shot at "-8%" or something, that means "his true shooting was 8% lower than the league average that year". Any time I say "a player shot" and follow it by a percent, I am *always* using true shooting percentage unless otherwise indicated.
I also have a modern comps section for any teams pre-2011. It's basically me weighting each statistical characteristic and feeding each player's stats into the BackPicks database and choosing the best-rated comp from the list. I might list something like this:
PG: 2017 LeBron James (worse rebounding, better passing, way fewer shots)
What I mean is, "This team's point guard was basically 2017 LeBron James, but make his passing better, make his rebounding worse and make him take way fewer shots).
Anyhow. I don't know how clear any of this will be, so please let me know what does and doesn't work from these writeups. And thanks for reading!
Standard Deviations: Standard Deviations of Overall SRS from the league mean.
When I post the roster makeup of the team, I try and do it by playoff minutes. The numbers are age, regular season BPM and Playoff BPM (basketball-reference's BPM is being used here).
So if I say: "C: Vlade Divac (22), +2.3 / +4.3" I mean that Vlade Divac was their center, he was 22, he had a BPM of +2.3 in the regular season and a +4.3 in the playoffs. Yes, BPM misses out on a lot of subtle stuff but I thought it a good quick-hits indicator of the skills of the players.
I also list the playoff players (20+ MPG) in order of OLoad (which is usage that integrates assists) and it has everyone's per game average for minutes, points, rebounds, assists and stocks (steals plus blocks), but all of those (including minutes) are adjusted for pace.
I then cover the three highest players in scoring per 100 (with their true shooting relative to league average) and the three highest players in Assists per 100. I realize that these are arbitrary, but I wanted a quick-hits reference for how these teams' offenses ran.
I then talk about Heliocentrism, Wingmen and Depth. Basically I add up all of the team's VORP (again, basketball-reference) and then figure out what percentage of that VORP comes from the #1 player (Heliocentrism), from the #2 and 3 players combined (Wingmen) and Depth (everyone else). I include the ranking among the top 100 for reference. There are only 82 of these rankings, because 18 teams pre-date BPM/VORP, so I only have 82 to work with. I'm not saying that these are particularly meaningful, I just thought they were cool.
Playoff Offensive Rating: Amount by which your playoff offensive rating exceeds the offensive rating you'd expect given the regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents. If you would be expected to post a 99 given your opponents but you post a 104, that's graded as +5. This way we can compare across eras.
Playoff Defensive Rating is the same as Offensive Rating, just the opposite.
Playoff SRS: Is SRS measured *only* in the playoffs. Overall SRS is a mix of both playoffs and regular season.
Total SRS Increase Through Playoffs: Basically their Overall SRS minus their Regular Season SRS. This is basically how much better a team did in the playoffs than you'd guess, relative to their regular season performance.
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: The average regular season offensive rating of your playoff opponents.
Average Playoff Opponent Defense: The average regular season defensive rating of your playoff opponents.
Rankings of any kind are out of my list. So if I say that the '91 Lakers had the 42nd best regular season offense, I don't mean "42nd best of All-Time", I mean "42nd best of my Top 100 Teams of All_Time". Which will be pretty comparable, but I want to be clear about this.
I also walk through the playoffs at each round, covering their opponent their SRS (at that time), how many games the series was, the margin of victory (and a "+" is always in the favor of the discussed team; losing a series by +2.0 means that you outscored the other team by two points a game on average despite losing) and for reference I put in an SRS equivalency (beat a +5 SRS team by 5 points a game, that's an equivalent +10 SRS series).
In later entries I also add the Offensive and Defensive Ratings for each playoff series. This is just how well the team did, adjusted by the opponent's regular season average (if you play a team with an average Defensive Rating of 102, and you play them with an offensive rating of 106, you get credited with a +4). Pace for teams below 1973 or so is estimated based on regular season numbers, so it could easily be wrong by some.
In writeups, if I ever say a player shot at "-8%" or something, that means "his true shooting was 8% lower than the league average that year". Any time I say "a player shot" and follow it by a percent, I am *always* using true shooting percentage unless otherwise indicated.
I also have a modern comps section for any teams pre-2011. It's basically me weighting each statistical characteristic and feeding each player's stats into the BackPicks database and choosing the best-rated comp from the list. I might list something like this:
PG: 2017 LeBron James (worse rebounding, better passing, way fewer shots)
What I mean is, "This team's point guard was basically 2017 LeBron James, but make his passing better, make his rebounding worse and make him take way fewer shots).
Anyhow. I don't know how clear any of this will be, so please let me know what does and doesn't work from these writeups. And thanks for reading!
#14. The 1997 Chicago Bulls
Spoiler:
Overall SRS: +11.34, Standard Deviations: +2.04, Won NBA Finals (Preseason 1st)
PG: Ron Harper, +2.7 / +5.8
SG: Michael Jordan, +8.9 / +9.9
SF: Scottie Pippen, +5.7 / +5.1
PF: Dennis Rodman, +0.5 / -2.9
C: Luc Longley, -1.7 / +0.0
6th: Toni Kukoc, +5.0 / +3.0
Regular Season Metrics:
Regular Season Record: 69-13, Regular Season SRS: +10.70 (5th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +7.7 (3rd), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -4.3 (33rd)
Shooting Advantage: +3.7%, Possession Advantage: +3.7 shooting possessions per game
Michael Jordan (SG, 33): 42 MPPG, 32% OLoad, 33 / 6 / 5 / 3 on +3.1%
Scottie Pippen (SF, 31): 42 MPPG, 25% OLoad, 22 / 7 / 6 / 3 on +1.8%
Toni Kukoc (PF, 28): 31 MPPG, 23% OLoad, 15 / 5 / 5 / 2 +1.7%
Luc Longley (C, 28): 28 MPPG, 20% OLoad, 10 / 6 / 3 / 2 on -3.7%
Ron Harper (PG, 33): 25 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 7 / 3 / 3 / 2 on +0.7%
Dennis Harper (PF, 35): 39 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 6 / 17 / 3 / 1 on -5.7%
Scoring/100: Michael Jordan (41.8 / +3.1%), Scottie Pippen (28.5 / +1.8%), Toni Kukoc (25.0 / +1.7%)
Assists/100: Toni Kukoc (8.5), Scottie Pippen (8.0), Michael Jordan (6.0)
Heliocentrism: 37.4% (38th of 84 teams) - Jordan
Wingmen: 39.1% (37th) - Pippen & Kukoc
Depth: 23.5% (52nd)
Playoff Metrics:
Playoff Offensive Rating: +5.40 (53rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -7.66 (21st)
Playoff SRS: +11.74 (35th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +0.64 (89th)
Shooting Advantage: +0.0%, Possession Advantage: +7.3 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.66 (37th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.90 (9th)
Michael Jordan (SG, 33): 47 MPPG, 34% OLoad, 35 / 9 / 5 / 3 on -1.2%
Scottie Pippen (SF, 31): 44 MPPG, 25% OLoad, 21 / 7 / 4 / 3 on -1.0%
Toni Kukoc (PF, 28): 25 MPPG, 20% OLoad, 9 / 3 / 3 / 1 on -3.8%
Luc Longley (C, 28): 25 MPPG, 16% OLoad, 7 / 5 / 2 / 1 on +0.1%
Ron Harper (PG, 33): 30 MPPG, 15% OLoad, 8 / 5 / 3 / 2 on -1.9%
Dennis Rodman (PF, 35): 31 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 5 / 9 / 2 / 1 on -10.9%
Scoring/100: Michael Jordan (41.2 / -1.2%), Scottie Pippen (27.2 / -1.0%), Toni Kukoc (19.9 / -3.8%)
Assists/100: Toni Kukoc (7.2), Michael Jordan (6.4), Ron Harper (6.2)
Playoff Heliocentrism: 40.7% (27th of 84 teams) - Jordan
Playoff Wingmen: 40.7% (12th) - Pippen & Harper
Playoff Depth: 18.6% (57th)
Round 1: Washington Bullets (+1.8), won 3-0, by +6.0 points per game (+7.8 SRS eq)
Round 2: Atlanta Hawks (+6.1), won 4-1, by +7.8 points per game (+13.9 SRS eq)
Round 3: Miami Heat (+6.2), won 4-1, by +8.8 points per game (+15.0 SRS eq)
Round 4: Utah Jazz (+8.6), won 4-2, by +0.6 points per game (+9.2 SRS eq)
Offensive / Defensive Ratings from Opposition Regular Season Average:
Washington Bullets: +10.9 / +2.3
Atlanta Hawks: +12.6 / -2.7
Miami Heat: +3.4 / -13.2
Utah Jazz: +0.6 / -9.8
Shooting Advantage / Possession Advantage per game (unadjusted):
Washington Bullets: -2.2% / +9.0
Atlanta Hawks: -1.0% / +9.1
Miami Heat: -1.3% / +11.4
Utah Jazz: -0.6% / +1.7
Postseason Usage/Efficiency Change adjusted for Opposition:
Ron Harper: +0.8% / -1.2%
Michael Jordan: +2.3% / -2.9%
Scottie Pippen: +0.3% / -1.4%
Dennis Rodman: +0.5% / -3.8%
Luc Longley: -4.2% / +5.2%
Toni Kukoc: -2.9% / -4.1%
Let’s talk about defense. Here are the Bulls’ defensive ratings from the regular season, from ‘91 to ‘98:
Reg Def: -2.7 -> -3.7 -> -1.9 -> -3.6 -> -4.0 -> -5.8 -> -4.3 -> -5.2
Note that the regular season defense for the early 90s Bulls was good but not great. And, get this, when Jordan leaves in ‘93, their defense suddenly goes up a level. Was Jordan secretly awful at defense? Really unlikely. But most of the lineup remained the same: Pippen, Grant and B.J. Armstrong all continued. The differences: Jordan was replaced with Pete Myers, there was a Bill swap (Cartright for Wennington), Scott Williams’ minutes went to Steve Kerr and Toni Kukoc was added. At first glance, I simply don’t see how the ‘94 team had better defense. But they did, at least in the regular season. Nevertheless, it does take a bit of wind out of the sails of the ‘Jordan was one of the very best defenders ever’ position (at least within the limitations of the '91-93 timeframe). But when Jordan returned (at the same time as Rodman was added and Longley got minutes), it all came together for an outstanding defense. And that defense continued for the next three years. Now let’s look at the playoffs:
Play Def: -5.1 -> -5.2 -> -3.0 -> -1.3 -> -2.7 -> -9.5 -> -7.7 -> -8.0
Okay. So the early 90s Bulls had strong defenses (though their offense was their best asset). And for all their regular season improvement, the ‘94 and ‘95 Bulls did not particularly impress on that end. But in ‘96 the Bulls posted a phenomenal defensive rating in the playoffs, and the ‘97 and ‘98 teams were almost as good. Those are three outstanding playoff defenses at the end of that run. I know I touched on this in the article about the ‘98 Bulls, but even though the Bulls are associated with Jordan and offense, the late 90s Bulls dominated with defense. In fact, those are three of the Top 25 playoff defenses on this list. In fact, let’s take a tour through the top Playoff Defensive Ratings on this list:
Bill Russell Celtics: ‘64, ‘60, ‘61, ‘62 (1st, 4th, 5th, 6th)
Ben Wallace Pistons: ‘04, ‘05 (2nd, 25th)
Kareem Bucks: ‘71, ‘72 (3rd, 12th)
Chicago Bulls: ‘96, ‘98, ‘97 (7th, 17th, 21st)
Giannis Bucks: ‘19 (8th)
Wilt Lakers: ‘72 (9th)
Kawhi Spurs: ‘16 (10th)
Bad Boy Pistons: ‘90, ‘88 (11th, 13th)
Duncan/Robinson Spurs: ‘03, ‘99 (14th, 20th)
Kawhi Raptors: ‘19 (15th)
Utah Jazz: ‘96 (16th)
Draymond Warriors: ‘18, ‘15 (18th, 23rd)
Garnett Celtics: ‘10 (19th)
Seattle SuperSonics: ‘96 (22nd)
Los Angeles Lakers: ‘01 (24th)
Some of those teams are pretty predictable: great defenses anchored behind a great defensive big. Nobody’s surprised to see the Russell Celtics, Kareem Bucks, Wilt Lakers, Wallace Pistons, Garnett Celtics or Duncan Spurs. Or the Draymond Warriors for that matter. But that’s only 14 of the 25. The 11 remaining don’t really have a dominant defensive big. Let’s go through them:
Giannis on the ‘19 Bucks isn’t a traditional ATG defensive big, but he can certainly play that role
The two Kawhi teams (‘16 Spurs and ‘19 Raptors) both had great coaching and really deep rosters (and a over the hill former DPoY at center)
The ‘96 Jazz . . . they’re not intuitive, but that playoffs all of Malone, Russell and Stockton (and Chris Morris) posted steal rates of 2.3% or higher, and Antoine Carr did have high blocks (3.8%).
The Sonics had rim protection in Kemp, but they had an insane arsenal of perimeter defenders
The Lakers had peak defensive Kobe, Robert Horry and Rick Fox.
And then we have Bad Boys Pistons and the late 90s Bulls.
In other words, 44% of the best playoff defenses ever didn’t have great rim protectors, and instead had deep athleticism and perimeter defenders. That seems high, right? Let’s contrast this with the Top 25 defensive ratings in the regular season:
Bill Russell: 8
Kevin Garnett: 1
Ben Wallace: 1
Tim Duncan/Kawhi/Robinson: 4
WIllis Reed: 1
Dwight Howard: 1
Wilt: 1
Kareem: 1
Giannis: 1
That’s 19 of the 25. But we still have outliers:
‘75 Bullets
‘09 Cavs
‘00 Lakers
‘96, ‘98 Bulls
‘96 Sonics
And, let the record show that most of those teams are in the bottom of the Top 25.
So what should we conclude? That big men are less critical in the playoffs? Or that the small sample size of playoffs is throwing things off? Either is possible. But I do think that there is a lot to suggest that great playoff defenses are more dependent on perimeter defense than they are in the regular season.
Here’s another wacky question. Of those Top 25 Playoff Defenses, Bill Russell had four, and Tim Duncan had three. But one player had five. Any guesses? Don’t peek!
Dennis Rodman.
Is this wildly unfair? Absolutely. The Bad Boy Pistons were a really deep defensive team. As were the late 90s Bulls. And yet. Who was *really* driving the defenses in Detroit? Thomas generated steals but wasn’t much of a man defender, Dumars was fine but not dominant, Laimbeer was tough (and a great rebounder) but not a great blocker, Salley was a very strong defender but came off the bench much of the time . . . are we sure that Rodman wasn’t a bigger driver of those defenses than he’s been given credit for? And the late 90s Bulls a lot of talent, but are we sure Rodman wasn’t the best defender there too? Obviously this is speculative. Both of those were very deep, athletic defenses. But Rodman’s presence on both is notable.
And a Jordan stan may take this moment to infer that, as Jordan was the best player on those late 90s Bulls, that Jordan ‘led’ some of the best defenses ever. This to me seems a reach. Jordan was unquestionably a strong defender. But I’m very uncomfortable with the insinuation that he contributed more on the defensive end than Pippen and, frankly, Rodman. And there’s no shame there, Pippen and Rodman are two of the better defenders ever. But on the late 90s Bulls I think that it’s more reasonable to read Jordan as one of many long, smart, strong and athletic defenders on that roster. But there is one thing Jordan can get credit for.
Guys like Rodman and Ron Harper (both excellent defenders at their positions) are limited on offense. In order to deploy them efficiently (and not hurt your offense by forcing them to use more possessions than they can effectively) you need somebody else picking up the tab. Rodman was a 10% usage player for the entire second half of his career. Harper *had* been a high usage player for a series of awful Clippers’ teams, but letting him drop his usage allowed him to focus on defense. Rodman at 10% plus Harper at 15% plus Jordan at 35% gets you to 60%, the average amount for three players. The most noted thing about usage is that it demonstrates skill; it takes a lot of skill to take that many shots and not implode your team’s offense doing it. But the secretly valuable thing that usage allows is the deployment of low-usage specialists. So, even if Jordan wasn’t personally the best defender on the roster, his usage effectively allowed Dennis Rodman to be on the team without hurting the offense. So maybe Jordan had a lot to do with it after all.
Let’s look at that roster:
Modern Comps:
PG: 2015 Andre Iguodala (but better on offense)
SG: 2008 Kobe Bryant (but better on offense)
SF: 2005 Manu Ginobili (but better on offense)
PF: 1997 Dennis Rodman
C: 2009 Andrey Blatche (but way better defender)
6th: 2018 Kyle Lowry
Ha! Ron Harper as Iguodala seems like a non sequitur. And then you look at the fact that Harper was low usage and limited efficiency, but great passing, strong defense and strong rebounding. And suddenly he looks a lot like Iguodala. Jordan as ‘08 Kobe . . . it’s honestly not a bad comparison. ‘97 Jordan took a lot of shots but not at high efficiency. Both players were bulk shot creators for themselves and teammates, solid rebounders and solid defenders. It’s not as crazy as it looks. ‘05 Ginobili for Pippen was surprising, but not many players have had the defensive impact that Pippen had. And Pippen’s basically a high (but not too high) usage scorer that passed a lot and rebounded well . . . which sounds a lot like Ginobili. Rodman, well, there aren’t comps for Rodman. Absolutely garbage with the ball, but perhaps the best rebounder ever and an outstanding team defender. Luc Longley . . . good defender, weirdly high usage but limited efficiency with everything else. And Kukoc as Lowry? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. Kukoc was an outstanding passer who took a fair number of shots and made them decently, and didn’t rebound particularly well for a big. And when you boil that down to stats, it makes him look like a scoring point guard. There are worse things.
But it’s hard not to look at this and see that their defense was going to be really, really good. Kukoc/Lowry is the only remotely weak link. Longley isn’t a particularly good defensive center but he’s still solid, and the top 4 are all really, really good defenders for their positions. The offense obviously bogs down some. ‘08 Bryant, ‘05 Ginobili and ‘18 Lowry make for a lot of solid scoring and passing, but none of Iguodala, Rodman and Blatche are really scorers. So it looks like an offense that will certainly work (a lot of options, a lot of passers and players that can carry large loads), but the offense is clearly extraordinary.
The ‘97 Bulls don’t normally get a lot of love. After all, this year’s Bulls are clearly worse than the ‘96 Bulls. So it may be a surprise to see them this high. But in the regular season the ‘97 Bulls won 69 games and posted a +10.70 RSRS. That’s tied for the fifth highest RSRS ever. EVER. A step down from one of the best teams ever . . . is still really, really good.
In the first round they faced the +1.8 Washington Bullets and played what I can only characterize as a curiously careless series. Jordan put up a dominant series (37/6/5 on +8.2% shooting) and the Bulls won a three-game sweep. But their defense really struggled to contain the Bullets’ offense. They shot at +2.7% (Tracy Murray and Chris Webber combined for 34 points a game on +17.5% shooting or better) and actually scored more per possession than they had in the regular season. The Bulls still won by 6 points a game, but 6 points a game is a strangely weak showing for an ATG team against a mediocre opponent. Incidentally, Game 3 had a pretty neat ending. With 18 seconds to go the Bullets are up by one and the Bulls have the ball. Jordan dribbles at the top of the key and, with about 12 to go, gets past his man (partially) and takes a short two into the teeth of the defense and the shot is blocked. The ball kicks up into their and everyone watches it. Pippen catches it beyond the arc and immediately attacks. Washington’s bigs, only just realizing that the ball has been caught, are slow to react and Pippen dunks it for the lead. Extremely heads up play from Pippen, less so from the Washington defense.
In the semis they faced a surprisingly tough opponent in the +6.1 Atlanta Hawks. You may not remember the ‘97 Hawks, but they had Steve Smith, Dikembe Mutombo and the 3rd best defense in the NBA. And the Bulls struggled to shoot well. Jordan averaged a 27/10/5 on -2.7% (2 steals a game), Pippen averaged a 22/6/6 on -1.2% and the team overall shot -1.5%. And yet their offense performed excellently, scoring double digits more than the Hawks normally allowed. How? Remember, the late 90s Bulls dominated possession. The Bulls’ top 5 minutes players *combined* for 7 turnovers allowed per game. That’s crazy low. And they owned the offensive glass. No one player had a ton, but all of Jordan, Longley, Pippen, Rodman and two bench players averaged at least 2 offensive boards a game. The endgame was that they took 9 more shots per game than the Hawks, and that was plenty. The Bulls won in 5, by 7.8 points per game. Not an enormous margin of victory, but extremely solid against a very good team.
And in the Conference Finals, the +6.2 Miami Heat, the #1 defense in the league (the ‘97 Bulls played an insane slate of defenses). Led by Tim Hardaway and Alonzo Mourning, the Heat weren’t a true contender, but like the Hawks they were very good. And, this time, the Bulls *really* struggled to score. They shot -5.7% as a team, with Jordan averaging a 30/8/3 on -6.1% and Pippen averaging a 17/5/3 on -1.0%. Again the Bulls salvaged their offense with strong ball control and rebounding (Rodman averaged almost 5 offensive boards per game), but the Heat had definitely blunted their attack. That said, the Bulls’ defense played outstandingly. The Bulls averaged 11 steals a game and locked down the defensive glass (nobody on the Heat averaged more than 2.5 offensive boards a game). And the Heat, while outshooting the Bulls, did not shoot well. Tim Hardaway was held to a 17/5/6 on -4.7% and the Heat overall shot -4.4%. The Bulls completely shut down the Heat’s offense, and in so doing won the series in five by 8.8 points per game, a dominant performance.
And in the Finals were the +8.6 Utah Jazz. The Jazz hadn’t really impressed in the playoffs. They’d certainly played well, but they seemed to lack the extra gear of great teams reaching the postseason. But who they were was quite good enough. In Game 1 they played the Bulls hard. Karl Malone kept the Bulls off the boards (10 defensive rebounds) and the Jazz were up 2 going into the fourth. With a tie game as the clock ticked down Jordan buried a long two to win the game. I often disparage Jordan’s reputation for magic clutchety clutchness, but he certainly came through in that game. Game 2 went better. The Jazz were held to -2.0% shooting and the Bulls’ offense performed well. Jordan had a 38/13/9 on +11.4% (2 steals, 5 turnovers) and the team overall shot +4.5%. The Bulls led the series 2-0.
In Game 3 the Jazz fought back. Again, the Jazz held the Bulls off the boards (no Bull got more than 2 offensive boards while Malone and Foster got 3 while Ostertag got 5) and the Jazz forced more steals (Malone got 4). It’s sort of the weird thing with a possession-oriented team like the Bulls. The Bulls’ stars had good games (Jordan with 26/3/6 on +0.1% and Pippen with a 27/4/4 on +26.0%) but their next five players had *negative* BPMs. The Jazz were slightly outshot, but their possession advantage gave them an 11 point win. In Game 4 the Bulls re-asserted control over possession (8 extra shots) but their shooting really struggled. As a team they shot -7.3% and Jordan had an uncharacteristically bad game (22/4/4 on -12.9%). With 2:30 to go the Bulls led by 5. Here’s what happened then:
2:23 - John Stockton takes a long three and sinks it (legit Curry shot), Bulls by 2
2:02 - Jordan takes an almost horizontal dribble parallel to the baseline and takes a fadeaway two from behind the free throw line (tough shot) and swishes it, Bulls by 4
1:45 - Hornacek attacks into the paint and tries a layup with his left hand, misses, Bulls get the rebound, Bulls by 4
1:34 - Jordan drives on Russell, spins but somehow Stockton reads the whole thing and runs right by him, picking his pocket as neatly as anything. Stockton streaks down the court but Jordan runs him down and fouls him. Stockton makes and misses, Bulls by 3.
1:05 - Jordan attacks but the Jazz swarm him, Jordan passes out with 5 to go in the shot clock, the Bulls pass it around and Pippen takes a three in the corner and misses, Jazz rebound, Bulls by 3 (great defense by Jazz)
1:03 - The Bulls intentionally foul Stockton (reasons unknown, especially since Stockton was 93% from the line in the 4th in the 97 playoffs). Stockton drains both. Bulls by 1.
0:49 - Jordan attacks into a double-team, takes a long contested two and misses, Stockton gets the rebound, Bulls by 1.
0:45 - Stockton guns the ball downcourt to Karl Malone who had taken off and Malone lays it in on the fast break, Jazz by 1.
0:29 - Jordan has the ball in the post, passes out to Kerr beyond the arc, he takes a three, misses, Jazz rebound, up by 1.
0:18 - Karl Malone is intentionally fouled, makes both free throws, Jazz by 3.
0:10 - Jordan takes a tough fadeaway three and misses, Jazz rebound.
0:01 - Stockton gets the ball downcourt and Bryon Russell dunks it, Jazz by 5 and game over.
It was a brutal defensive game, but down the stretch the Jazz executed well and the Bulls didn’t, and Utah came from behind to snatch Game 4 away from the Bulls.
Game 5 was tough again. The morning of the game Jordan suffered from acute food poisoning. He could barely stand upright, and the team trainers thought he wouldn’t be able to play. Jordan being Jordan he insisted on playing. The Jazz capitalized early on Jordan’s lethargy and ran up an early lead, but the game ended up being quite tight. The Jazz kept the Bulls from getting a possession advantage and the two teams shot almost evenly. Jordan ended up having an outstanding game (38/7/5 on +5.3% with 3 steals). With 1:15 remaining the Jazz led by 1.
1:07 - Karl Malone gets the ball and basically maneuvers himself into taking an awful long two with his heels on the three point line with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, he airballs it and the Bulls get the rebound.
0:47 - Jordan maneuvers sluggish to the top of the key and Russell tries to strip him and fouls him. Jordan makes the first and misses the second. The ball gets tapped back out and lands right at Jordan’s feet where he picks it up. Bulls’ ball, tie game.
0:28 - Jordan, from the top of the arc, passes into Pippen on the block with ten left on the shot clock. At 8 seconds Russell abandons Jordan (in retrospect, perhaps not ideal) to double Pippen. Before Russell gets there Pippen passes out to the now wide-open Jordan. Stockton dives in but is way too late and Jordan cans it, Bulls by 3.
0:15 - Stockton cuts into the paint and dishes around the defense to Ostertag for an easy dunk. Bulls by 1.
0:08 - the Bulls inbound the ball to Pippen, but Karl Malone doesn’t foul him. The Jazz’ defense kinds of breaks down and the Bulls score on an easy dunk from Longley.
0:02 - Hornacek takes a well-defended three and misses and the Bulls win.
So the Bulls ended up prevailing by 2 in yet another tight game.
Game 6 was another battle. In this one the Bulls absolutely locked down the boards (Pippen, Rodman, Harper and Longley combined for 11 offensive boards while the Jazz’ entire roster had 5) and the Bulls earned a 12-shot advantage. And it was fortunate, because they shot quite badly. As a team they shot -5.8% and Jordan had a 39/11/4 on -4.1% (only 1 turnover). The Jazz led by 6 going into the fourth but the Bulls stormed back, and by 1:30 left the game was tied.
1:29 - The Jazz doubled Jordan, so Jordan passed to Kukoc who passed to a wide-open Pippen who attacked the rim. Pippen missed the layup and the Bulls got offensive rebounds and missed the follow-up shot twice before Stockton got the defensive board. Tie game.
1:07 - Stockton passed the ball into Malone with good post position, with Rodman defending. Malone took a fadeaway but missed it, Pippen got the rebound.
0:50 - Jordan darts around his man and attacks into the paint, slamming his body into the defender under the hoop and putting the shot up. He misses and does not get the foul call, the Jazz get the rebound.
0:32 - Stockton attacks just slightly into the arc. When he sees Pippen start to bite he gets the ball to Shandon Anderson beautifully in perfect position. Anderson takes an easy reverse layup and misses it. The Bulls get the rebound and call timeout.
0:05 - the Jazz are playing hard defense, Russell is working hard to deny Jordan the ball. Eventually he gets the ball behind the arc with 6 seconds on the shot clock. At 5 seconds he attacks and Stockton comes off of Kerr to double Jordan. Hornacek plays the middle area between Kukoc in the corner and Kerr at the top of the key.
Jordan goes up, as if to shoot, but has limited position. He then looks to pass and, for whatever reason, Hornacek bites *hard* on a possible pass to Kukoc.
Which leads to Jordan instead passing to a wide open Kerr, who cans the shot.
0:04 - Bryon Russell inbounds but either threw a wounded duck of a pass or Kukuc got a hand on it and the ball drops short of its cross-court target and Pippen steals it, game over.
On one hand, Kerr canned the game-winning shot. On the other hand, Jordan a) drew the double and b) apparently sold the pass to Kukoc well enough to open up Kerr. So unless we’re deciding that Hornacek just had a giant brain-fart, Jordan should get a hefty amount of the credit for creating the look.
Anyhow. The Bulls won, 4-2. But it was an ugly, defensive series. Both offenses ground to a halt. The Bulls struggled to control the glass, and were generally outshot. The Bulls’ four wins were by 2, 12, 2 and 4 points. The Jazz’ two wins were by 11 and 5 points. So we have two definite wins (one for the Bulls, one for the Jazz), and then four games decided by 5 points or less. It’s just that the Bulls won three of those four. So the Bulls definitely won. And perhaps it’s not a coincidence that the Bulls tended to win the fourth quarter (though only by 2.5 points per game). It was an extremely tight series, not remotely dominant, but certainly a win over a strong team.
11 | Bulls
10 |
9 | Jazz
8 |
7 | Sonics
6 | Rockets
5 | Heat, Hawks, Lakers
4 | Knicks, Pistons
3 |
2 | Bullets, Cavs
1 | Blazers, Pacers
0 | Hornets
-0 | Magic
-1 | Suns, Bucks
-2 | TWolves, Raptors, Clippers
-3 | Clippers, Nets, Kings
-4 | Warriors
-5 | 76ers
-6 | Celtics, Mavs, Nuggets
-7 | Spurs
-8 |
-9 |
-10| Grizzlies
1997 is considered a fairly non-competitive year. The Grizzlies were awful and the bell curve was very flat. Less than half the league (14 of 29) was between +4 and -4, which is pretty low.
So how do we evaluate the ‘97 Bulls?
Positives:
One of the best regular season teams ever;
Championship run with few weak opponents;
Two really strong series against the Hawks and Heat.
Negatives:
Barely beat a strong (but not ATG strong) team in the Finals;
Had an overall playoff run that lacked dominance (35th in PSRS for the list).
Overall . . . in a ranking system that cared more about regular season dominance (which mine doesn’t too much) the ‘97 Bulls would show up even higher. But their playoff run, while strong, wasn’t Top 15 strong.
Ultimately, I think this isn’t an awful place to put them.
And I think it’s notable that, despite their offense regressing in the playoffs (+7.7 to +5.4) their defense rose to the challenge. And it wasn’t even that they backed off of offensive rebounding to cut down transition buckets; they were simply a swarm of smart and athletic defenders that put together one of the better playoff defenses ever. Was Jordan the Destroyer of Worlds he had been only 3-4 years before? No. But damned if he didn't come through (most of the time) when his team needed him in the Finals.
It may seem outrageous that Jordan's 4th best team get ranked higher than some ATG one-shots. Perhaps it is. All I can say is that their regular season was historically great, wherever it ranks on the list of Jordan teams. And their playoffs, though not at that level, were still excellent. This was a great team, whether or not Jordan had better.
PG: Ron Harper, +2.7 / +5.8
SG: Michael Jordan, +8.9 / +9.9
SF: Scottie Pippen, +5.7 / +5.1
PF: Dennis Rodman, +0.5 / -2.9
C: Luc Longley, -1.7 / +0.0
6th: Toni Kukoc, +5.0 / +3.0
Regular Season Metrics:
Regular Season Record: 69-13, Regular Season SRS: +10.70 (5th), Earned the 1 Seed
Regular Season Offensive Rating: +7.7 (3rd), Regular Season Defensive Rating: -4.3 (33rd)
Shooting Advantage: +3.7%, Possession Advantage: +3.7 shooting possessions per game
Michael Jordan (SG, 33): 42 MPPG, 32% OLoad, 33 / 6 / 5 / 3 on +3.1%
Scottie Pippen (SF, 31): 42 MPPG, 25% OLoad, 22 / 7 / 6 / 3 on +1.8%
Toni Kukoc (PF, 28): 31 MPPG, 23% OLoad, 15 / 5 / 5 / 2 +1.7%
Luc Longley (C, 28): 28 MPPG, 20% OLoad, 10 / 6 / 3 / 2 on -3.7%
Ron Harper (PG, 33): 25 MPPG, 14% OLoad, 7 / 3 / 3 / 2 on +0.7%
Dennis Harper (PF, 35): 39 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 6 / 17 / 3 / 1 on -5.7%
Scoring/100: Michael Jordan (41.8 / +3.1%), Scottie Pippen (28.5 / +1.8%), Toni Kukoc (25.0 / +1.7%)
Assists/100: Toni Kukoc (8.5), Scottie Pippen (8.0), Michael Jordan (6.0)
Heliocentrism: 37.4% (38th of 84 teams) - Jordan
Wingmen: 39.1% (37th) - Pippen & Kukoc
Depth: 23.5% (52nd)
Playoff Metrics:
Playoff Offensive Rating: +5.40 (53rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -7.66 (21st)
Playoff SRS: +11.74 (35th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +0.64 (89th)
Shooting Advantage: +0.0%, Possession Advantage: +7.3 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.66 (37th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -3.90 (9th)
Michael Jordan (SG, 33): 47 MPPG, 34% OLoad, 35 / 9 / 5 / 3 on -1.2%
Scottie Pippen (SF, 31): 44 MPPG, 25% OLoad, 21 / 7 / 4 / 3 on -1.0%
Toni Kukoc (PF, 28): 25 MPPG, 20% OLoad, 9 / 3 / 3 / 1 on -3.8%
Luc Longley (C, 28): 25 MPPG, 16% OLoad, 7 / 5 / 2 / 1 on +0.1%
Ron Harper (PG, 33): 30 MPPG, 15% OLoad, 8 / 5 / 3 / 2 on -1.9%
Dennis Rodman (PF, 35): 31 MPPG, 11% OLoad, 5 / 9 / 2 / 1 on -10.9%
Scoring/100: Michael Jordan (41.2 / -1.2%), Scottie Pippen (27.2 / -1.0%), Toni Kukoc (19.9 / -3.8%)
Assists/100: Toni Kukoc (7.2), Michael Jordan (6.4), Ron Harper (6.2)
Playoff Heliocentrism: 40.7% (27th of 84 teams) - Jordan
Playoff Wingmen: 40.7% (12th) - Pippen & Harper
Playoff Depth: 18.6% (57th)
Round 1: Washington Bullets (+1.8), won 3-0, by +6.0 points per game (+7.8 SRS eq)
Round 2: Atlanta Hawks (+6.1), won 4-1, by +7.8 points per game (+13.9 SRS eq)
Round 3: Miami Heat (+6.2), won 4-1, by +8.8 points per game (+15.0 SRS eq)
Round 4: Utah Jazz (+8.6), won 4-2, by +0.6 points per game (+9.2 SRS eq)
Offensive / Defensive Ratings from Opposition Regular Season Average:
Washington Bullets: +10.9 / +2.3
Atlanta Hawks: +12.6 / -2.7
Miami Heat: +3.4 / -13.2
Utah Jazz: +0.6 / -9.8
Shooting Advantage / Possession Advantage per game (unadjusted):
Washington Bullets: -2.2% / +9.0
Atlanta Hawks: -1.0% / +9.1
Miami Heat: -1.3% / +11.4
Utah Jazz: -0.6% / +1.7
Postseason Usage/Efficiency Change adjusted for Opposition:
Ron Harper: +0.8% / -1.2%
Michael Jordan: +2.3% / -2.9%
Scottie Pippen: +0.3% / -1.4%
Dennis Rodman: +0.5% / -3.8%
Luc Longley: -4.2% / +5.2%
Toni Kukoc: -2.9% / -4.1%
Let’s talk about defense. Here are the Bulls’ defensive ratings from the regular season, from ‘91 to ‘98:
Reg Def: -2.7 -> -3.7 -> -1.9 -> -3.6 -> -4.0 -> -5.8 -> -4.3 -> -5.2
Note that the regular season defense for the early 90s Bulls was good but not great. And, get this, when Jordan leaves in ‘93, their defense suddenly goes up a level. Was Jordan secretly awful at defense? Really unlikely. But most of the lineup remained the same: Pippen, Grant and B.J. Armstrong all continued. The differences: Jordan was replaced with Pete Myers, there was a Bill swap (Cartright for Wennington), Scott Williams’ minutes went to Steve Kerr and Toni Kukoc was added. At first glance, I simply don’t see how the ‘94 team had better defense. But they did, at least in the regular season. Nevertheless, it does take a bit of wind out of the sails of the ‘Jordan was one of the very best defenders ever’ position (at least within the limitations of the '91-93 timeframe). But when Jordan returned (at the same time as Rodman was added and Longley got minutes), it all came together for an outstanding defense. And that defense continued for the next three years. Now let’s look at the playoffs:
Play Def: -5.1 -> -5.2 -> -3.0 -> -1.3 -> -2.7 -> -9.5 -> -7.7 -> -8.0
Okay. So the early 90s Bulls had strong defenses (though their offense was their best asset). And for all their regular season improvement, the ‘94 and ‘95 Bulls did not particularly impress on that end. But in ‘96 the Bulls posted a phenomenal defensive rating in the playoffs, and the ‘97 and ‘98 teams were almost as good. Those are three outstanding playoff defenses at the end of that run. I know I touched on this in the article about the ‘98 Bulls, but even though the Bulls are associated with Jordan and offense, the late 90s Bulls dominated with defense. In fact, those are three of the Top 25 playoff defenses on this list. In fact, let’s take a tour through the top Playoff Defensive Ratings on this list:
Bill Russell Celtics: ‘64, ‘60, ‘61, ‘62 (1st, 4th, 5th, 6th)
Ben Wallace Pistons: ‘04, ‘05 (2nd, 25th)
Kareem Bucks: ‘71, ‘72 (3rd, 12th)
Chicago Bulls: ‘96, ‘98, ‘97 (7th, 17th, 21st)
Giannis Bucks: ‘19 (8th)
Wilt Lakers: ‘72 (9th)
Kawhi Spurs: ‘16 (10th)
Bad Boy Pistons: ‘90, ‘88 (11th, 13th)
Duncan/Robinson Spurs: ‘03, ‘99 (14th, 20th)
Kawhi Raptors: ‘19 (15th)
Utah Jazz: ‘96 (16th)
Draymond Warriors: ‘18, ‘15 (18th, 23rd)
Garnett Celtics: ‘10 (19th)
Seattle SuperSonics: ‘96 (22nd)
Los Angeles Lakers: ‘01 (24th)
Some of those teams are pretty predictable: great defenses anchored behind a great defensive big. Nobody’s surprised to see the Russell Celtics, Kareem Bucks, Wilt Lakers, Wallace Pistons, Garnett Celtics or Duncan Spurs. Or the Draymond Warriors for that matter. But that’s only 14 of the 25. The 11 remaining don’t really have a dominant defensive big. Let’s go through them:
Giannis on the ‘19 Bucks isn’t a traditional ATG defensive big, but he can certainly play that role
The two Kawhi teams (‘16 Spurs and ‘19 Raptors) both had great coaching and really deep rosters (and a over the hill former DPoY at center)
The ‘96 Jazz . . . they’re not intuitive, but that playoffs all of Malone, Russell and Stockton (and Chris Morris) posted steal rates of 2.3% or higher, and Antoine Carr did have high blocks (3.8%).
The Sonics had rim protection in Kemp, but they had an insane arsenal of perimeter defenders
The Lakers had peak defensive Kobe, Robert Horry and Rick Fox.
And then we have Bad Boys Pistons and the late 90s Bulls.
In other words, 44% of the best playoff defenses ever didn’t have great rim protectors, and instead had deep athleticism and perimeter defenders. That seems high, right? Let’s contrast this with the Top 25 defensive ratings in the regular season:
Bill Russell: 8
Kevin Garnett: 1
Ben Wallace: 1
Tim Duncan/Kawhi/Robinson: 4
WIllis Reed: 1
Dwight Howard: 1
Wilt: 1
Kareem: 1
Giannis: 1
That’s 19 of the 25. But we still have outliers:
‘75 Bullets
‘09 Cavs
‘00 Lakers
‘96, ‘98 Bulls
‘96 Sonics
And, let the record show that most of those teams are in the bottom of the Top 25.
So what should we conclude? That big men are less critical in the playoffs? Or that the small sample size of playoffs is throwing things off? Either is possible. But I do think that there is a lot to suggest that great playoff defenses are more dependent on perimeter defense than they are in the regular season.
Here’s another wacky question. Of those Top 25 Playoff Defenses, Bill Russell had four, and Tim Duncan had three. But one player had five. Any guesses? Don’t peek!
Dennis Rodman.
Is this wildly unfair? Absolutely. The Bad Boy Pistons were a really deep defensive team. As were the late 90s Bulls. And yet. Who was *really* driving the defenses in Detroit? Thomas generated steals but wasn’t much of a man defender, Dumars was fine but not dominant, Laimbeer was tough (and a great rebounder) but not a great blocker, Salley was a very strong defender but came off the bench much of the time . . . are we sure that Rodman wasn’t a bigger driver of those defenses than he’s been given credit for? And the late 90s Bulls a lot of talent, but are we sure Rodman wasn’t the best defender there too? Obviously this is speculative. Both of those were very deep, athletic defenses. But Rodman’s presence on both is notable.
And a Jordan stan may take this moment to infer that, as Jordan was the best player on those late 90s Bulls, that Jordan ‘led’ some of the best defenses ever. This to me seems a reach. Jordan was unquestionably a strong defender. But I’m very uncomfortable with the insinuation that he contributed more on the defensive end than Pippen and, frankly, Rodman. And there’s no shame there, Pippen and Rodman are two of the better defenders ever. But on the late 90s Bulls I think that it’s more reasonable to read Jordan as one of many long, smart, strong and athletic defenders on that roster. But there is one thing Jordan can get credit for.
Guys like Rodman and Ron Harper (both excellent defenders at their positions) are limited on offense. In order to deploy them efficiently (and not hurt your offense by forcing them to use more possessions than they can effectively) you need somebody else picking up the tab. Rodman was a 10% usage player for the entire second half of his career. Harper *had* been a high usage player for a series of awful Clippers’ teams, but letting him drop his usage allowed him to focus on defense. Rodman at 10% plus Harper at 15% plus Jordan at 35% gets you to 60%, the average amount for three players. The most noted thing about usage is that it demonstrates skill; it takes a lot of skill to take that many shots and not implode your team’s offense doing it. But the secretly valuable thing that usage allows is the deployment of low-usage specialists. So, even if Jordan wasn’t personally the best defender on the roster, his usage effectively allowed Dennis Rodman to be on the team without hurting the offense. So maybe Jordan had a lot to do with it after all.
Let’s look at that roster:
Modern Comps:
PG: 2015 Andre Iguodala (but better on offense)
SG: 2008 Kobe Bryant (but better on offense)
SF: 2005 Manu Ginobili (but better on offense)
PF: 1997 Dennis Rodman
C: 2009 Andrey Blatche (but way better defender)
6th: 2018 Kyle Lowry
Ha! Ron Harper as Iguodala seems like a non sequitur. And then you look at the fact that Harper was low usage and limited efficiency, but great passing, strong defense and strong rebounding. And suddenly he looks a lot like Iguodala. Jordan as ‘08 Kobe . . . it’s honestly not a bad comparison. ‘97 Jordan took a lot of shots but not at high efficiency. Both players were bulk shot creators for themselves and teammates, solid rebounders and solid defenders. It’s not as crazy as it looks. ‘05 Ginobili for Pippen was surprising, but not many players have had the defensive impact that Pippen had. And Pippen’s basically a high (but not too high) usage scorer that passed a lot and rebounded well . . . which sounds a lot like Ginobili. Rodman, well, there aren’t comps for Rodman. Absolutely garbage with the ball, but perhaps the best rebounder ever and an outstanding team defender. Luc Longley . . . good defender, weirdly high usage but limited efficiency with everything else. And Kukoc as Lowry? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. Kukoc was an outstanding passer who took a fair number of shots and made them decently, and didn’t rebound particularly well for a big. And when you boil that down to stats, it makes him look like a scoring point guard. There are worse things.
But it’s hard not to look at this and see that their defense was going to be really, really good. Kukoc/Lowry is the only remotely weak link. Longley isn’t a particularly good defensive center but he’s still solid, and the top 4 are all really, really good defenders for their positions. The offense obviously bogs down some. ‘08 Bryant, ‘05 Ginobili and ‘18 Lowry make for a lot of solid scoring and passing, but none of Iguodala, Rodman and Blatche are really scorers. So it looks like an offense that will certainly work (a lot of options, a lot of passers and players that can carry large loads), but the offense is clearly extraordinary.
The ‘97 Bulls don’t normally get a lot of love. After all, this year’s Bulls are clearly worse than the ‘96 Bulls. So it may be a surprise to see them this high. But in the regular season the ‘97 Bulls won 69 games and posted a +10.70 RSRS. That’s tied for the fifth highest RSRS ever. EVER. A step down from one of the best teams ever . . . is still really, really good.
In the first round they faced the +1.8 Washington Bullets and played what I can only characterize as a curiously careless series. Jordan put up a dominant series (37/6/5 on +8.2% shooting) and the Bulls won a three-game sweep. But their defense really struggled to contain the Bullets’ offense. They shot at +2.7% (Tracy Murray and Chris Webber combined for 34 points a game on +17.5% shooting or better) and actually scored more per possession than they had in the regular season. The Bulls still won by 6 points a game, but 6 points a game is a strangely weak showing for an ATG team against a mediocre opponent. Incidentally, Game 3 had a pretty neat ending. With 18 seconds to go the Bullets are up by one and the Bulls have the ball. Jordan dribbles at the top of the key and, with about 12 to go, gets past his man (partially) and takes a short two into the teeth of the defense and the shot is blocked. The ball kicks up into their and everyone watches it. Pippen catches it beyond the arc and immediately attacks. Washington’s bigs, only just realizing that the ball has been caught, are slow to react and Pippen dunks it for the lead. Extremely heads up play from Pippen, less so from the Washington defense.
In the semis they faced a surprisingly tough opponent in the +6.1 Atlanta Hawks. You may not remember the ‘97 Hawks, but they had Steve Smith, Dikembe Mutombo and the 3rd best defense in the NBA. And the Bulls struggled to shoot well. Jordan averaged a 27/10/5 on -2.7% (2 steals a game), Pippen averaged a 22/6/6 on -1.2% and the team overall shot -1.5%. And yet their offense performed excellently, scoring double digits more than the Hawks normally allowed. How? Remember, the late 90s Bulls dominated possession. The Bulls’ top 5 minutes players *combined* for 7 turnovers allowed per game. That’s crazy low. And they owned the offensive glass. No one player had a ton, but all of Jordan, Longley, Pippen, Rodman and two bench players averaged at least 2 offensive boards a game. The endgame was that they took 9 more shots per game than the Hawks, and that was plenty. The Bulls won in 5, by 7.8 points per game. Not an enormous margin of victory, but extremely solid against a very good team.
And in the Conference Finals, the +6.2 Miami Heat, the #1 defense in the league (the ‘97 Bulls played an insane slate of defenses). Led by Tim Hardaway and Alonzo Mourning, the Heat weren’t a true contender, but like the Hawks they were very good. And, this time, the Bulls *really* struggled to score. They shot -5.7% as a team, with Jordan averaging a 30/8/3 on -6.1% and Pippen averaging a 17/5/3 on -1.0%. Again the Bulls salvaged their offense with strong ball control and rebounding (Rodman averaged almost 5 offensive boards per game), but the Heat had definitely blunted their attack. That said, the Bulls’ defense played outstandingly. The Bulls averaged 11 steals a game and locked down the defensive glass (nobody on the Heat averaged more than 2.5 offensive boards a game). And the Heat, while outshooting the Bulls, did not shoot well. Tim Hardaway was held to a 17/5/6 on -4.7% and the Heat overall shot -4.4%. The Bulls completely shut down the Heat’s offense, and in so doing won the series in five by 8.8 points per game, a dominant performance.
And in the Finals were the +8.6 Utah Jazz. The Jazz hadn’t really impressed in the playoffs. They’d certainly played well, but they seemed to lack the extra gear of great teams reaching the postseason. But who they were was quite good enough. In Game 1 they played the Bulls hard. Karl Malone kept the Bulls off the boards (10 defensive rebounds) and the Jazz were up 2 going into the fourth. With a tie game as the clock ticked down Jordan buried a long two to win the game. I often disparage Jordan’s reputation for magic clutchety clutchness, but he certainly came through in that game. Game 2 went better. The Jazz were held to -2.0% shooting and the Bulls’ offense performed well. Jordan had a 38/13/9 on +11.4% (2 steals, 5 turnovers) and the team overall shot +4.5%. The Bulls led the series 2-0.
In Game 3 the Jazz fought back. Again, the Jazz held the Bulls off the boards (no Bull got more than 2 offensive boards while Malone and Foster got 3 while Ostertag got 5) and the Jazz forced more steals (Malone got 4). It’s sort of the weird thing with a possession-oriented team like the Bulls. The Bulls’ stars had good games (Jordan with 26/3/6 on +0.1% and Pippen with a 27/4/4 on +26.0%) but their next five players had *negative* BPMs. The Jazz were slightly outshot, but their possession advantage gave them an 11 point win. In Game 4 the Bulls re-asserted control over possession (8 extra shots) but their shooting really struggled. As a team they shot -7.3% and Jordan had an uncharacteristically bad game (22/4/4 on -12.9%). With 2:30 to go the Bulls led by 5. Here’s what happened then:
2:23 - John Stockton takes a long three and sinks it (legit Curry shot), Bulls by 2
2:02 - Jordan takes an almost horizontal dribble parallel to the baseline and takes a fadeaway two from behind the free throw line (tough shot) and swishes it, Bulls by 4
1:45 - Hornacek attacks into the paint and tries a layup with his left hand, misses, Bulls get the rebound, Bulls by 4
1:34 - Jordan drives on Russell, spins but somehow Stockton reads the whole thing and runs right by him, picking his pocket as neatly as anything. Stockton streaks down the court but Jordan runs him down and fouls him. Stockton makes and misses, Bulls by 3.
1:05 - Jordan attacks but the Jazz swarm him, Jordan passes out with 5 to go in the shot clock, the Bulls pass it around and Pippen takes a three in the corner and misses, Jazz rebound, Bulls by 3 (great defense by Jazz)
1:03 - The Bulls intentionally foul Stockton (reasons unknown, especially since Stockton was 93% from the line in the 4th in the 97 playoffs). Stockton drains both. Bulls by 1.
0:49 - Jordan attacks into a double-team, takes a long contested two and misses, Stockton gets the rebound, Bulls by 1.
0:45 - Stockton guns the ball downcourt to Karl Malone who had taken off and Malone lays it in on the fast break, Jazz by 1.
0:29 - Jordan has the ball in the post, passes out to Kerr beyond the arc, he takes a three, misses, Jazz rebound, up by 1.
0:18 - Karl Malone is intentionally fouled, makes both free throws, Jazz by 3.
0:10 - Jordan takes a tough fadeaway three and misses, Jazz rebound.
0:01 - Stockton gets the ball downcourt and Bryon Russell dunks it, Jazz by 5 and game over.
It was a brutal defensive game, but down the stretch the Jazz executed well and the Bulls didn’t, and Utah came from behind to snatch Game 4 away from the Bulls.
Game 5 was tough again. The morning of the game Jordan suffered from acute food poisoning. He could barely stand upright, and the team trainers thought he wouldn’t be able to play. Jordan being Jordan he insisted on playing. The Jazz capitalized early on Jordan’s lethargy and ran up an early lead, but the game ended up being quite tight. The Jazz kept the Bulls from getting a possession advantage and the two teams shot almost evenly. Jordan ended up having an outstanding game (38/7/5 on +5.3% with 3 steals). With 1:15 remaining the Jazz led by 1.
1:07 - Karl Malone gets the ball and basically maneuvers himself into taking an awful long two with his heels on the three point line with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, he airballs it and the Bulls get the rebound.
0:47 - Jordan maneuvers sluggish to the top of the key and Russell tries to strip him and fouls him. Jordan makes the first and misses the second. The ball gets tapped back out and lands right at Jordan’s feet where he picks it up. Bulls’ ball, tie game.
0:28 - Jordan, from the top of the arc, passes into Pippen on the block with ten left on the shot clock. At 8 seconds Russell abandons Jordan (in retrospect, perhaps not ideal) to double Pippen. Before Russell gets there Pippen passes out to the now wide-open Jordan. Stockton dives in but is way too late and Jordan cans it, Bulls by 3.
0:15 - Stockton cuts into the paint and dishes around the defense to Ostertag for an easy dunk. Bulls by 1.
0:08 - the Bulls inbound the ball to Pippen, but Karl Malone doesn’t foul him. The Jazz’ defense kinds of breaks down and the Bulls score on an easy dunk from Longley.
0:02 - Hornacek takes a well-defended three and misses and the Bulls win.
So the Bulls ended up prevailing by 2 in yet another tight game.
Game 6 was another battle. In this one the Bulls absolutely locked down the boards (Pippen, Rodman, Harper and Longley combined for 11 offensive boards while the Jazz’ entire roster had 5) and the Bulls earned a 12-shot advantage. And it was fortunate, because they shot quite badly. As a team they shot -5.8% and Jordan had a 39/11/4 on -4.1% (only 1 turnover). The Jazz led by 6 going into the fourth but the Bulls stormed back, and by 1:30 left the game was tied.
1:29 - The Jazz doubled Jordan, so Jordan passed to Kukoc who passed to a wide-open Pippen who attacked the rim. Pippen missed the layup and the Bulls got offensive rebounds and missed the follow-up shot twice before Stockton got the defensive board. Tie game.
1:07 - Stockton passed the ball into Malone with good post position, with Rodman defending. Malone took a fadeaway but missed it, Pippen got the rebound.
0:50 - Jordan darts around his man and attacks into the paint, slamming his body into the defender under the hoop and putting the shot up. He misses and does not get the foul call, the Jazz get the rebound.
0:32 - Stockton attacks just slightly into the arc. When he sees Pippen start to bite he gets the ball to Shandon Anderson beautifully in perfect position. Anderson takes an easy reverse layup and misses it. The Bulls get the rebound and call timeout.
0:05 - the Jazz are playing hard defense, Russell is working hard to deny Jordan the ball. Eventually he gets the ball behind the arc with 6 seconds on the shot clock. At 5 seconds he attacks and Stockton comes off of Kerr to double Jordan. Hornacek plays the middle area between Kukoc in the corner and Kerr at the top of the key.
Jordan goes up, as if to shoot, but has limited position. He then looks to pass and, for whatever reason, Hornacek bites *hard* on a possible pass to Kukoc.
Which leads to Jordan instead passing to a wide open Kerr, who cans the shot.
0:04 - Bryon Russell inbounds but either threw a wounded duck of a pass or Kukuc got a hand on it and the ball drops short of its cross-court target and Pippen steals it, game over.
On one hand, Kerr canned the game-winning shot. On the other hand, Jordan a) drew the double and b) apparently sold the pass to Kukoc well enough to open up Kerr. So unless we’re deciding that Hornacek just had a giant brain-fart, Jordan should get a hefty amount of the credit for creating the look.
Anyhow. The Bulls won, 4-2. But it was an ugly, defensive series. Both offenses ground to a halt. The Bulls struggled to control the glass, and were generally outshot. The Bulls’ four wins were by 2, 12, 2 and 4 points. The Jazz’ two wins were by 11 and 5 points. So we have two definite wins (one for the Bulls, one for the Jazz), and then four games decided by 5 points or less. It’s just that the Bulls won three of those four. So the Bulls definitely won. And perhaps it’s not a coincidence that the Bulls tended to win the fourth quarter (though only by 2.5 points per game). It was an extremely tight series, not remotely dominant, but certainly a win over a strong team.
11 | Bulls
10 |
9 | Jazz
8 |
7 | Sonics
6 | Rockets
5 | Heat, Hawks, Lakers
4 | Knicks, Pistons
3 |
2 | Bullets, Cavs
1 | Blazers, Pacers
0 | Hornets
-0 | Magic
-1 | Suns, Bucks
-2 | TWolves, Raptors, Clippers
-3 | Clippers, Nets, Kings
-4 | Warriors
-5 | 76ers
-6 | Celtics, Mavs, Nuggets
-7 | Spurs
-8 |
-9 |
-10| Grizzlies
1997 is considered a fairly non-competitive year. The Grizzlies were awful and the bell curve was very flat. Less than half the league (14 of 29) was between +4 and -4, which is pretty low.
So how do we evaluate the ‘97 Bulls?
Positives:
One of the best regular season teams ever;
Championship run with few weak opponents;
Two really strong series against the Hawks and Heat.
Negatives:
Barely beat a strong (but not ATG strong) team in the Finals;
Had an overall playoff run that lacked dominance (35th in PSRS for the list).
Overall . . . in a ranking system that cared more about regular season dominance (which mine doesn’t too much) the ‘97 Bulls would show up even higher. But their playoff run, while strong, wasn’t Top 15 strong.
Ultimately, I think this isn’t an awful place to put them.
And I think it’s notable that, despite their offense regressing in the playoffs (+7.7 to +5.4) their defense rose to the challenge. And it wasn’t even that they backed off of offensive rebounding to cut down transition buckets; they were simply a swarm of smart and athletic defenders that put together one of the better playoff defenses ever. Was Jordan the Destroyer of Worlds he had been only 3-4 years before? No. But damned if he didn't come through (most of the time) when his team needed him in the Finals.
It may seem outrageous that Jordan's 4th best team get ranked higher than some ATG one-shots. Perhaps it is. All I can say is that their regular season was historically great, wherever it ranks on the list of Jordan teams. And their playoffs, though not at that level, were still excellent. This was a great team, whether or not Jordan had better.
Back to the Main Thread
