RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 (Dikembe Mutombo)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 (Dikembe Mutombo) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:59 pm

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. ???

Look to conclude this one around 2-3pm EST on Tuesday (or as close as I can get to that with my schedule).

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#2 » by Baski » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:09 pm

1.Dikembe Mutombo
One of the greatest defenders and shot blockers ever. ATG Rebounder as well. A bit limited offensively; to be fair he's not exactly Russell scoring-wise, but on the flipside he's not exactly Russell passing wise. In an era with Hakeem, Mourning, Duncan and Robinson, he stood out as arguably the best defender of the mid-late 90s. Solid longevity, especially defensively.

Made multiple All star and All NBA teams on the strength of mostly his defense and rebounding.

2.Alonzo Mourning
3.Dominique Wilkins


Order of preference:
Bob Cousy
Paul Arizin
Robert Parish
Alex English
Elvin Hayes
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#3 » by sansterre » Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:17 pm

1. Dikembe Mutombo - His WOWYR numbers are insane. Completely insane. +8.5 levels of insane (nobody else being discussed is above +6). And it isn't like he played his whole career for a team that always had weak backups. Mutombo played for four different teams for at least two seasons each (and another two teams for one). So we got a pretty good sampling of how valuable he was to his teams in a ton of different situations. And it was, apparently, really freaking valuable. He was never a strong offensive player, yet his career OBPM is actually near league average. He scored fairly efficiently on limited usage, and while his passing/turnovers were quite weak, he was consistently one of the best offensive rebounders in the league for a decade. So it would be quite unfair to Mutombo to think of him as "defensive monster, offensive liability". He was an average to slightly above average offensive player, and for a center that's actually respectable. Also, defensive monster. Odinn did a better job going into detail than I, but there's a mountain of evidence that for a considerable string of years he was one of most valuable defensive players in the league. And if you were making a list of the most impactful defensive centers ever, Mutombo probably makes that list near the bottom of the top 10. So we combine 1) considerable longevity, 2) outstanding defense and 3) non-liability offense and you get a pretty valuable player. I've become convinced that defensive impact from box score metrics should be treated with caution, and that you need to look at external indicators for context. And Mutombo's WOWYR strongly suggests that his defense was more valuable than perhaps was thought.

2. Robert Parish - Parish is done a disservice by the fact that his most memorable years ('86 specifically) were well past his prime. The knock on Parish is that he was never *great*. He had many iterations as a scorer, from higher usage and sufficient efficiency to lower usage and more efficiency. But he was never a particularly good scorer. He *was* a really good rebounder, but never dominant. He had eight different years in the top 10 of rebounds, but only one in the Top 5. He was never a dominant defender, but he was strong on that end for a very long time. And for all of McHale getting flack for being a black hole, Parish's Shots per Assist was around 10 for most of his career (compared to 7 for McHale). Parish was never a good passer and turned the ball over a fair amount. Put all this together and Parish was never dominant. He was never close to dominant. At his best he was only quite good. But here's the thing. He did that crap FOR EVER. He's 2nd all time in offensive boards, 4th in defensive boards, 10th in blocks, Top 30 in points and so on. To be clear, I don't care about those career counting stats. But I want to be clear that, in contrast to, say, Giannis, who has several ATG seasons but little else, Parish has maybe 15 All-Star (or close) seasons. In career value, Parish makes up the difference in sheer longevity.

3. Elvin Hayes - Even though VORP spits on him and his career, I have slowly come around on him (thanks to some people on this board, but also PIPM and ElGee's CORP numbers). It was a hard moment for me, because he embodies so many things I've been trained to dislike. He took a lot of shots, but never made them efficiently. He never passed terribly well. All of these paint the picture of an overrated scorer and overrated offensive player. And yet. His presence on teams generally seemed to help them a fair amount, more than you'd guess. Part of this may be that he always seemed to be on rosters that needed a high-volume scorer (whether because the team blew goats, or because it was on an all-defense squad). But whether or not his skills fit the pattern of helping his teams, they certainly did. He was a very strong rebounder, quality defender and took enough shots to free up his teammates without imploding the offense. And he did it for a really long time with minimal time lost while playing a lot of minutes. Even though he *looks* like an overrated player, I've made my peace with the fact that he had a pretty valuable career, and bears consideration.

Mutombo > Parish > Elvin Hayers > AD > Alonzo Mourning > Giannis > Thurmond > English > Arizin > Cousy
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:20 pm

1. Alex English -- Versatility, consistency, and character put English over the likes of Dantley, Nique, Tmac, etc. English played many roles and always made his teams better no matter what role Denver played him in. He was a solid 35-30ppg scorer at above average efficiency for a full decade. In the 1980s he scored more points than Larry Bird, Dominique Wilkens, Adrian Dantley, Isiah Thomas, Moses Malone, or well, anyone. And he did it while generally guarding the better of the opponents starting forwards in the era of the great scoring forwards. From watching him, I have him as the only above average defender among the killer lineup of great scoring fowards of his era (Bird, Gervin, Nique, AD, King, Aquirre). One of the most underrated players in history. Also won numerous citizenship awards, one of the great people to play the game.

2. Anthony Davis -- last season pushed his totals for me quite a bit. 8 year career, great peak/playoff run. Two way player, very versatile.

3. Paul Arizin MVP who led his team to a title, albeit in the weak 1950s. When he left for the military, the team was badly hurt; when the team's other big name star, Neil Johnston, was out for a year, the team was only affected in a minor way. If you are going to put a 50s star in, it makes more sense to vote for Arizin, who made his team a champion, than Cousy, a flashy spectacular player that fans loved but a poor defender and less efficient a scorer. One of the Cousy supporters talks about his rings but Cousy was actually a playoff detriment to the team in those title seasons (except possibly 1957), his scoring efficiency was truly awful -- Russell Westbrook in Washington bad -- and yet he kept shooting at high volumes. He should go in as a 50s star but his play from 58 on, particularly in the playoffs, was not HOF level or even close.

Then: Bobby Jones, another English type player with super consistency and versatility though a defensive star instead of an offensive one, Parish (better combination of offense and defense than Hayes, Thurmond, or Lanier). Note that Jones has more 1st team All-Defense teams than any other player in history. Mutombo and Mourning are now in the mix as well. None are good passers, each of the others has a weakness -- Hayes and Thurmond are poor efficiency scorers, Mutombo had issues catching entry passes and can't score with the others, Mourning had more injury issues. Have to do some work to rank these 5 bigs. For the moment, call it Zo, Deke, Hayes, Thurmond. Whether they are the next 4 overall after Bobby Jones, I don't know, also have to consider the wings and points though for the moment I rate all the aforementioned over Cousy, Nique, and Tmac who are the others being brought up now..

Guys that I love but whose primes are too short to be top 5 right now: Giannis, Hawkins, Moncrief, Lever, Walton . . . convince me they have played long enough to go ahead of an Anthony Davis (short but not AS short) or Bobby Jones type player. I'd have the first three over the likes of Penny Hardaway who has been mentioned.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#5 » by Odinn21 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:27 pm

After all the engagements about Hayes vs. Davis in the #56 thread, when I look at Hayes and his durability, he also should be higher than Mourning.
Davis' prime duration and durability; 6 seasons and 14 missed games per season, 397 games played in total.
Mourning's prime duration and durability; 8 seasons and 11 missed games per season, 534 games played in total.

Mourning's prime duration and durability are slightly better than Davis' but I don't think it's enough for him to be above Hayes at the moment.

So I'm changing my order from Mourning/Hayes to Hayes/Mourning.

58. Elvin Hayes
Hayes' peak isn't that special among these names but his prime duration, overall longevity and durability are just too strong. He was an inefficient scorer but he made up more than enough with his relentless offense, rebounding and defense. He has to be one of the highest motor players ever, and coupled with his durability (9 missed games in 16 seasons :-o ), his case for the top 60 is just great.
(In terms of advanced metrics Hayes is one of Moses-esque figures in the game's history.)

59. Alonzo Mourning
It's quite insane that we as a group have forgotten about Mourning. He had Walton-Reed like career in a way but the unlucky injury hit him much later. He had 8 good prime seasons with very very good peak. He still had 4 seasons of regular games after the injury, his overall longevity isn't great but it's there. His intangibles were great.
Dantley is the only pick I'm certain right now and I'm going through names to be more certain and I had Mutombo in my ballot before but I'm changing him to Mourning/Hayes.

60. Dikembe Mutombo
I think it's OK to reward him for being one of the biggest defensive forces we've ever seen. Unlike Ben Wallace, he wasn't a limited player with negative impact on offense until later in his career.
This was a recap of Mutombo's career;
Spoiler:
Odinn21 wrote:
Does anyone know of any strong evidence for Mutombo's defense moving the needle? Obviously it did, but how much? BPM takes a fairly dim view of steals, but AuRPM gives Mutombo several very strong seasons, and his WOWYR is bonkers. I would really like to give him some love, but I'm cautious about voting players that BPM is so meh about. I know he was better than BPM says; I just don't know how much better.

The Nuggets went from being the dead last to being average on defense in Mutombo's rookie season.

Here's a quick recap;

1991 Nuggets; -10.31 SRS (27th), +6.8 rDRtg (27th) [the 2nd worst SRS in the season was -6.27]
Mutombo joins as a rookie
1992 Nuggets; -7.59 SRS (27th), +0.4 rDRtg (13th) [the 2nd worst SRS in the season was -7.47]
1993 Nuggets; -2.14 SRS (21st), -1.7 rDRtg (8th)
1994 Nuggets; +1.54 SRS (16th), -4.0 rDRtg (5th)
The team makes the playoffs and upsets the 63W (+8.68 SRS, 1st in SRS Sonics) with Deke's defense and the team also forces a game 7 against the 53W Jazz (+4.10 SRS)
1995 Nuggets; +0.96 SRS (13th), -0.1 rDRtg (14th)
The team gets swept by the Spurs in the 1st round. Mutombo does a good job on Robinson. Though I don't recall why Mutombo played and shot so little in that series.
1996 Nuggets; -2.62 SRS (19th), +0.5 rDRtg (17th)
The team misses the playoffs.

1996 Hawks; +1.29 SRS (14th), +0.4 rDRtg (16th)
Mutombo joins the team in the middle of his prime.
1997 Hawks; +5.52 SRS (5th), -4.4 rDRtg (3rd)
The team gets past the Pistons in the 1st round after Deke's massive performance (18.2 ppg on .745 ts, +21.4 rts), then they fall short to the historic Bulls in 5.
1998 Hawks; +3.85 SRS (8th), -0.7 rDRtg (13th)
The team loses to the Hornets in the 1st round, mediocre performance from Mutombo.
1999 Hawks; +2.82 SRS (8th), -5.1 rDRtg (2nd)
Another strong performance by Mutombo against the Pistons in the 1st round. Mutombo did a good job against Ewing, but the Hawks were utterly outclassed by the pace Sprewell and Houston brought. Mutombo was .492 ts scorer and the rest of the team was .405 ts.
The Hawks give up on Blaylock and Smith.
2000 Hawks; -5.41 SRS (26th), +3.8 rDRtg (25th)
The team misses the playoffs.

2001 Sixers; they were doing OK with Ratliff in 2000 and also in 2001 regular season, in fact their Rtg numbers got worse with Mutombo in 2001 regular season. But NPI-RAPM has Mutombo in the top 7-8 percentile in general and he was in the top percentile in D-RAPM.
In the playoffs, Mutombo was massive though. Especially against the Bucks in the ECF. He had a series like he did against the Pistons in 1997. 16.6 ppg on .577 ts (when the rest of the team scored on .462 ts). One could make a case for Mutombo being the best Sixer over Iverson in that series.
He was almost 35 by this point.

I'm not sure how you'd like to interpret this recap but I think it's quite impressive. He proved his defensive qualities in many different situations. The only significant dip in there was 2000 Hawks season but it was like Draymond Green's season without Curry and Thompson, it was hard to care. I remember some vague games of that Hawks team and I thought how disorganized they are at the time. But I wasn't a full-time follower back then, so, I might be off with 2000 Hawks season.

And I think it's good enough to earn Mutombo this spot. Though I definitely see Parish's and Lanier's cases as well. I have Mutombo ahead of them right now.

I'll edit this message about my rankings of the players those got 1st place votes for the Condorcet method.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:59 pm

Baski wrote:1.Dikembe Mutombo...
2.Alonzo Mourning
3.Dominique Wilkins


I made a separate thread to compare Alex English, Nique, and Tmac if you would care to give your reasons. I rate English first pretty clearly. He was the most efficient scorer, better defensively than Nique and more of a team guy than Tmac. And, unlike Nique, his numbers didn't take a nose dive in the playoffs which I think is fairly important.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#7 » by Baski » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Baski wrote:1.Dikembe Mutombo...
2.Alonzo Mourning
3.Dominique Wilkins


I made a separate thread to compare Alex English, Nique, and Tmac if you would care to give your reasons. I rate English first pretty clearly. He was the most efficient scorer, better defensively than Nique and more of a team guy than Tmac. And, unlike Nique, his numbers didn't take a nose dive in the playoffs which I think is fairly important.

I'll check it out. It's tough separating these similar mould guys, and I'll admit to not being as informed on English as the other two. Should be informative for me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:14 pm

1st vote: Robert Parish
So yeah.....I'm a meaningful longevity guy. This is not a secret, nor new. And Parish is actually my clear top pick via my criteria; as my list stands now, there's actually no one left on the table who's even within 5 places of Parish.

But seriously:
Parish was an entirely fine two-way player [and was so for a really damn long time].
While I think he’s somewhat more remembered for his offense, he was also a very capable defender thru much of his career (especially early on).

For example, during his first SEVEN seasons in the league......
*He never averaged less than 2.8 blocks per 100 possessions (and as high as 4.4).
**In both ‘79 and ‘81 he was 4th in the league in bpg despite playing just 31.7 and 28.0 mpg; was 5th in ‘82 while playing just 31.7 mpg, too.
***He had a cumulative 97 DRtg, leading the league in DRtg in ‘79; had a DRtg in the top 8 four times (three times in the top 3).

Offensively, he was a 7-footer who ran the floor pretty well, while being a competent finisher (making him one of the more notable transition threats among the centers of his era). He was a very very good low-post scorer (could utilize a little hook shot, or that crazy high-arcing turnaround of his), and also had a tiny bit of range (out to about 12-14 feet, anyway, he was quite effective).
Was an entirely decent FT-shooter for a big-man (72.1% for his career).
The primary reason he was averaging just 16-20 ppg during his prime was because he was playing on an extremely stacked team thru most of it. I've little doubt prime Parish could have avg ~23-24 ppg for a less talent-laden club.

While I don't think Parish could have been “the man” on a contender, I think we’re well past the point on the list where that is a necessary consideration. Especially when one has the kind of longevity that Parish had: he had a prime that basically lasted 13 years (>1,000 rs games), and five other seasons as decent role player of varying (but certainly relevant) value; only 3 seasons (years 19-21) that were of negligible or nil value.

And while he couldn’t have been #1 on a contender, he certainly could have been the #1 on a 40-45 win playoff participant. I think this was more or less proven in '89 when Bird missed the entire season: Parish was arguably the best player [at worst a "1B"] on a 42-win team.....this was at age 35 (the single-oldest man on the Celtic roster). No Bird to feed him, but old-man Parish still averaged 18.6 ppg @ +7.0% rTS, to go with 12.5 rpg and 1.5 bpg.

And he was clearly capable of being the #2 on a contender. Indeed, he WAS either the 2nd or 3rd best player on MULTIPLE contenders.
He’s got one ring as the clear #2 ('81), another as---at worst---the #2B ('84), a third ring as the clear #3 ('86), and then a 4th ring as a sparsely used limited-value bench player ('97).

He was 7th in MVP voting in ‘81, 4th in MVP voting in ‘82.

A look at his prime production…….
Robert Parish (‘79-’91) (13 years: 1022 rs games!)
Per 100 (rs): 25.8 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk with 3.6 tov @ 58.4% TS
PER 20.2, .168 WS/48, 113 ORtg/102 DRtg (+11) in 32.4 mpg
Playoffs Per 100: 22.9 pts, 13.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.2 tov @ .551 TS%
PER 16.5, .121 WS/48 in 34.9 mpg

Robert Parish (full career)
Per 100 (rs): 24.6 pts, 15.5 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.5 tov @ .571 TS%
PER 19.2, .154 WS/48, 111 ORtg/102 DRtg (+9) in 28.4 mpg
**And note this is over 21 years, 1611 rs games (more than any other player in history)
Per 100 (playoffs): 22.6 pts, 14.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.1 tov @ .547 TS%
PER 16.6, .121 WS/48, 109 ORtg/105 DRtg (+4) in 33.6 mpg

Career rs WS: 147.0 (#26 all-time)
Career playoff WS: 15.6 (#39 all-time)
9-Time NBA All-Star
2-Time All-NBA (1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)

That’s an awful lot of career value, imo.


2nd vote: Elvin Hayes
A defensive stud [or semi-stud, at least] who played for a long time (seems longer when considering the insane mpg he had thru most of his career) while barely missing a game [9 missed games in 16 years :o ].
A pretty damn substantial piece of a title Bullets team, and an utterly massive statistical footprint (for whatever that's worth to you).
Whether you like his style or not, it can hardly be denied that he's a valid candidate here.


3rd vote: Anthony Davis
Was thinking really hard about breaking the ice on Allen Iverson, too. Bob Cousy I'd be more or less comfortable supporting here, too.
I think AD is arguably the best peak left on the board [imo it's between him, Giannis, and TMac, for that distinction]. Whereas TMac has a clear [almost outlier] peak season ('03), I think AD actually has a couple years of similar value (I think quite highly of his '15 campaign, which I think gets slept on).
Hell, even in '19 he was playing at an amazing level. I frowned a bit at how he stayed out [or was kept out] of games after he made it clear he wanted a trade. But you know, it's his prerogative to want to be somewhere where he can actually contend [and frankly anyone who uses '19 against him should be extra generous to Kevin Garnett for sticking it out for 12 fruitless years in Minnesota]; and once the decision was more or less set, the Pels too sort of WANTED to keep him out (to protect their trade asset). It's hardly any use if they play him too much in a dead-end season [ceiling is a 1st round exit at best] and risk him getting injured, at which point his stock goes way down.

Anyway.....
He's a proven good floor-raiser, and fit nicely next to Lebron to be the best 1-2 punch in the league on what ultimately was the championship team.
Came into the league as pretty much a borderline All-Star as a rookie [and as mentioned was (imo) at least weak MVP tier by his 3rd season], so though he's got only 8 seasons, he's packed a considerable amount of value in there.


For the record....
Among those with traction, I'm presently going with this order:
Parish > Hayes > Davis > Cousy > Dikembe > Mourning > Arizin > English.
fwiw, Iverson is right in there around the Cousy/Dikembe range for me, too. He might be the next guy I try to argue for.
After that I'll be looking at guys like Vince Carter, Dominique Wilkins, Wes Unseld, and Nate Thurmond.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:03 am

Can't decide if I'm a little surprised Parish doesn't have more traction at this stage.

I realize, obviously, that I'm more "longevity-driven" in my criteria than most posters; I also give more credence to rs achievement because to do otherwise is neglecting the larger sample size [what is frequently the ONLY sample size for many players in given years], as well as ignoring their average performance against ALL of their professional peers [and instead focusing on performance only against the more elite among their peers].
But still.....

As sansterre said, Parish was probably never a "great" player. But he was quite good; and he "did that crap forever".
And he had a few years that are kinda-sorta approaching great(ish). Was he ever a top-5 player in the league? Probably not [although he did finish 4th in the MVP vote in '82, and was 7th in '81], but he was probably REALLY close, and imo certainly has TWO seasons as a top-10 player in the league [perhaps even easily].

'81 [the year he finished 7th in the MVP vote] is the most intriguing to me.

Looking at the all-in-one metrics, he was:
2nd in the league in PER
3rd in WS/48
4th in BPM
tied for 2nd [with Kareem] in PIPM

The caveat to all of the above? He did this while playing only 28.0 mpg (whereas nearly everyone else in his vicinity was playing 33+ [if not 36+] mpg).
In raw terms, he was averaging 18.9 ppg @ +4.44% rTS, 9.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.3 topg, 1.0 spg, 2.6 bpg.
Those aren't Earth-shattering numbers. But here the consideration that he played only 28 mpg works in his favour. Consider that---per 36 minutes---the highlights translate to:
24.3 ppg, 12.2 rpg, and 3.4 bpg (@ +4.44% rTS, with 3.0 topg).

That's getting pretty close to a "holy s***" superstar statline, no?

But he didn't play 36 mpg; he only played 28 mpg. And of course he couldn't maintain that exact production and efficiency for 36 minutes. Things like fatigue [both physical and mental] and foul-trouble would more frequently come into play. HOWEVER, it's not unreasonable to assume he would have been capable of something like 23.0 ppg @ +3.5% rTS, 12.0 rpg, and 3.0 bpg (with maybe like 2.9 topg) if he'd been played 36 minutes........which a 23/12/3 statline would be pretty impressive, no?

Point being, Parish was quite good, and might have been a fringe top-5 player that year, at least in the rs.

'82 [his 4th-place MVP finish] isn't far behind: was 9th in PER, tied for 9th in WS/48, tied for 14th in BPM, and was 6th in PIPM; this time while playing 31.7 mpg.
In raw terms, that was 19.9 ppg @ +3.30% rTS, 10.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.8 topg, 0.9 spg, 2.4 bpg.
In the playoffs, his efficiency fell a bit, though he did average 21.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, and a league-best 4.0 bpg.

So imo, he's clearly a top-10 player [at least] in both of these years.


Beyond that, it's sort of like sansterre said a thread or so back: he was basically an All-Star or pretty close to it for like 14-15 years.
Seriously, if you look at the 15 years from '79-'93 (longer than the entire careers of Jones [either one of them], Arizin, or Cousy [and in a tougher era, imo]), probably '80 and '88 are the only years he is NOT at least a top 25-30 player in the league (and he's still easily a top 50 player both of those years, imo).
MOST of those other 13 years he's a top 20 [usually top 15-16] player in the league, too.
Depending on how you valuate total career value, he's got OTHER seasons OUTSIDE of this span that are arguably worth something. Really [imo] there are only two seasons [out of 21] that are of little or no consequence in his career.


Again, I realize I'm more centric on longevity than most; but I hit a point where I have to ask myself if---for example---a single season as a top 5-6 player is more valuable than THREE seasons as a fringe top 13-15 player?
Or is ONE fringe top-10 season more valuable than THREE fringe top-20 seasons?

These are questions that bear scrutiny when evaluating Robert Parish.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:36 am

Parish v. Bobby Jones (who I had right after Parish on my list, until I looked at it like this):

Longevity: (ADV PARISH)
Parish 18 full seasons! 31.6mpg (excluding the small pieces of 3 more as bench piece at end of career which frankly weren't impressive); Jones 12 full seasons, 27.3 mpg (his greatest weakness -- limited endurance due to his asthma) -- The extra 6 seasons are why I had Parish first, I think Jones is stronger per minute/season starting this analysis.

Defense: (EDGE JONES)
Parish -- good defender, shotblocker, traditional center; Jones -- arguably greatest defensive combo forward ever (probably Rodman if you consider defensive rebounding part of defense). 11 1st team All-Defense Awards (1st 2 ABA), plus a 2nd team in his final season. Very good shotblocker for a forward, good steals totals, one of only 4 players who ever averaged 2bl/2st in a season along with Hakeem, DRob, and Gerald Wallace (Wallace's numbers look like a fluke as he was not a shot blocker any other seasons -- but if you've ever watched game film of Bill Russell, he gets a ton of poke away steals so still 4), very good positional defender though his lateral footspeed isn't outstanding. This is Bobby Jones's main argument.

Scoring (per 100 posessions): (EDGE JONES)
Parish 24.6/100 on .571 ts%, 22.6 on .537 playoffs, 3 times in top 10 in ts% in league, good face up game for a center
Jones 20.1/100 on .607 ts%, 19.9 on .593 playoffs, led league in ts% once and was top 10 6 times in his 12 years despite being more a short/midrange jump shooter than a post up guy though he had hops and could throw it down.

Rebounding: (ADV PARISH)
Parish 17.9 reb rate, 16.2 playoffs, should have an advantage as a center rather than a forward
Jones 11.8 reb rate, 10.5 playoffs, played more PF than SF so this is not strong even so

Passing: (EDGE JONES)
Parish 6.9 ast rate, 13.9 turnover rate, playoffs 5.6/12.9 (maybe it wasn't McHale who was the black hole)
Jones 12.2 ast rate, 14.8 turnover rate, playoffs 12.5/14.9 (I actually thought Jones would be better than this but still appreciably better than Parish)

Intangibles: Both consistently played for winners, Jones more of a vocal leader, Parish was sort of the great stone face out there. Not going to call an edge here, but if there is, it's Bobby Jones.

I went into this thinking Parish should rate higher; I tend to favor centers in the 20th century where you couldn't win an NBA championship without a HOF center (except for Rick Barry in 75 and Bill Laimbeer in Detroit). Looking at it more carefully, I think Jones was just significantly more valuable in an average year, enough to make up for Parish's longevity edge unless you are giving centers an even stronger boost than I do.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#11 » by euroleague » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:03 am

1. Bob Cousy
2. Bill Walton
3. Elvin Hayes

1. Cousy was a revolutionary player in the NBA, and he was a huge contributor on many championship teams. His stats may not have been good, but as a PG, much of his impact wasn't in his scoring stats. His elite playmaking set the stage for Russell's passing to develop, and his transition offense helped the defense by tiring out opponents. It's no coincidence that the Celtics were consistently first in ppg - his offense also allowed for offensive rebounding to be more effective.

Many people hating on Cousy never actually watched these games. I myself haven't watched enough of them to be an expert, but what I have seen of Cousy has him as an elite floor general whose impact went far beyond his stats.

2. Bill Walton - This may be a lot higher than most have him, but his run at his best was so elite, both in the regular and post-season, i feel comfortable putting him this high. MVP, FMVP, would've won DPOOY, 6MOY with the Celtics on a GOAT level team. McHale had a bigger role on those teams, and will probably be my next selection, but Walton's brief period of being arguably the best player in the league, and winning Portland's only title, put him this high for me.

3. Elvin Hayes - Great longevity, great two-way domination, anchored a championship team. Very good longevity and one of the most unappreciated players on this board.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:19 am

penbeast0 wrote:Scoring (per 100 posessions): (EDGE JONES)
Parish 24.6/100 on .571 ts%, 22.6 on .537 playoffs, 3 times in top 10 in ts% in league, good face up game for a center
Jones 20.1/100 on .607 ts%, 19.9 on .593 playoffs, led league in ts% once and was top 10 6 times in his 12 years despite being more a short/midrange jump shooter than a post up guy though he had hops and could throw it down.


Not sure I'd agree Jones gets the edge (not sure how many others would agree and characterize Jones a better scorer than Robert Parish, either).

Jones' per 100 avg there is marginally below league average for both rs and playoffs. He's an opportunistic scorer: wide open for a 13-foot baseline J, dunk in transition, etc.
Parish would get some opportunistic buckets, too, but was also asked to score in isolation with regularity. That plays a role in their respective shooting efficiency.

I'd also note that you're comparing career numbers when Parish's career lasted an astounding NINE additional years.

If we looked only at the best 12 consecutive years of Parish's career (to correspond to the length of Jones' career), let's say '81-'92.....

Parish averaged 25.6 pts/100 @ 59.2% TS in the rs, while averaging 32.4 mpg (to Jones' 27.3 mpg).
In the playoffs it was 22.7 pts/100 @ 55.0% TS (in 34.8 mpg).

Your use of additional mostly pre/post-prime seasons [which were FAR in addition to what Jones played] are dragging his figures down.

imo, there's little question to who was the better scorer [even if it's not a huge margin], but it's not the same conclusion you've reached.

So imo, Parish is the better scorer, rather FAR better rebounder, and is literally lapping the field on him once or twice in terms of longevity [I mean he's basically "edged" Jones by 20,000 minutes......that's larger than the ENTIRE CAREER of Anthony Davis].
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#13 » by penbeast0 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:44 am

Sorry, started to use only his Celtics career numbers, must have gotten off track. I ignore the 3 extra years of Parish was scoring less than 5 ppg as virtually zero added value. In terms of scoring style you are correct, though Parish was the 4th option on those Celtics teams they did post him up more (not so much iso ball from what I remember) while Jones got his by off ball movement.

I can see giving Parish the nod based on 6 extra years as a legit strong NBA player which is indeed a powerful argument. I prefer Jones's extra efficiency to Parish's extra volume, especially in the playoffs, but I can see the argument going the other way if you value volume more. For me, Jones's extra value as a defender is the key; again, I see Parish as having more value on that end but not at the Bobby Jones level. The extra rebounding (some of which is to be expected as a reasonably average rebounding starting NBA pure C v. a below average rebounding starter equivalent PF/SF hybrid) is to me less valuable than Jones's extra passing and court awareness (on both ends).

I have no problem with your taking Parish, I know you value strong longevity more than I do. Just giving my reasons for reversing my position on the two players. Not saying everyone has to share it. Heck, outside of me, Nique is getting more traction than English and that's a comp I don't really see ANY justification for giving Nique the advantage on.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#14 » by Hal14 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:30 am

Hal14 wrote:1. Bob Cousy
2. Nate Thurmond
3. Elvin Hayes

Bob Cousy - Very underrated on this board. When you look at the players from his era, Mikan and Pettit were better than Cousy. But Cousy has a strong argument for being better than any other player from his era. You could argue that Cousy was better than Schayes and Schayes got voted in a long time ago in the no. 41 spot.

Cousy - 13x all star, 10x all NBA 1st team, 1 MVP, 6x NBA title
Schayes - 12x all star, 6x all NBA 1st team, 0 MVP, 1x NBA title

Cousy has a clear edge in awards and titles over Schayes plus had greater impact on the game - decades later, Cousy was the guy all point guards modeled their game after. Did Schayes do that? Of course not - he was a PF and the guy back then all PFs modeled their game after was Pettit.

What about Arizin? He was a SF and he didn't have as much impact as Cousy either - Baylor was the guy back then all SFs would model their game after - not Arizin.

And as for awards and titles, we have:

Cousy - 13x all star, 10x all NBA 1st team, 2x all NBA 2nd team, 1 MVP, 6x NBA title
Arizin - 10x all star, 3x all NBA 1st team, 1x all NBA 2nd team, 0 MVP, 1x NBA title

Not to mention the impact Cousy had on the game and his legacy. We simply had never before seen a guy who could make the kind of passes that Cousy could. It's like he had eyes in the back of his head - able to see 2 steps ahead of the opposition, able to anticipate where his teammates would be, hit teammates perfectly in stride for transition layups. Some of the plays he made - you might watch them today in 2021 and think they are routine plays - but a) many of the plays he made were truly outstanding and not routine at all and b) He was so far ahead of his time - to make the types of plays he did back in the 50s was pretty amazing. Keep in mind back then there was much more strict rules in regards to dribbling. The way players dribble the ball in today's game - they would get called for a carry, palming or travel pretty much every time down the floor. Cousy was called the hardwood Houdini for a reason. And it's not like he was all flash and no substance (like Maravich, Jason Williams, etc.), Cousy was all about winning. That's all he cared about - winning. Scoring the basketball, making great passes to teammates to get them baskets. Hell, he was even a good rebounder for his size. He did whatever it takes to win. He became the player that all point guards who would come later on would model their games after.

Not for another 2 decades when Frazier came along would we see a player as good as Cousy at both scoring and setting up teammates for scores. Frazier was obviously a better defender, but he also had the advantage of coming along decades later, when more players were lifting weights, rules weren't as strict on palming/carrying/traveling, the ball was easier to shoot and easier to dribble than the one Cousy played with, etc. Frazier was voted in at the no. 30 spot in this poll. Is he really 26 spots better than Cousy? No way.



Cousy led the NBA in assists 8 years in a row.

Cousy was hands down the best player at his position for an entire decade, was considered the best scorer and best passer at his position for an entire decade, and completely ignore all of the awards (which were voted on be people who actually were alive back then and followed the game very closely LIVE and based their voting off not just stats but also intangibles, eye test and impact the player had on the game, reputation around the league, etc. and also completely ignoring contributing the more titles than any PG ever, a huge part of the greatest dynasty in NBA history, the guy who was the one leading the famous Celtics fast break which changed the way the game would be played from then on since up until then no one else was playing that type of push the tempo, run run run, get quick shots up before the defense is set type of style. Let's also ignore that during his career Cousy made more high degree of difficulty shots - shots that literally no one had ever even attempted, let alone made, he was also the league's best ball handler and passer for his entire career - in an era where they played with a ball that was MUCH more difficult to dribble, pass and shoot than the ball they have the advantage of playing with today.

Nate Thurmond - right in that same tier with Reed, Gilmore and Ewing. I see those four centers as pretty debatable. Ewing, Gilmore and Reed all got voted in already - it's Thurmond's time now. Thurmond has a strong case for being better than all 3 of them (probably the best defender of the group, but Gilmore has the longevity and ABA Finals MVP, Reed has 2 Finals MVPs so I've got Thurmond just barely ranked behind those other guys).

Article here:
https://www.nba.com/history/legends/profiles/nate-thurmond

Excerpt:
Both Abdul-Jabbar and Chamberlain have gone on record saying they felt Thurmond was their toughest adversary. “He plays me better than anybody ever has,” Abdul-Jabbar told Basketball Digest when he was in his prime. “He’s tall, has real long arms, and most of all he’s agile and strong.” In an article in Sport, Abdul-Jabbar also said, “When I score on Nate, I know I’ve done something. He sweats and he wants you to sweat, too.”

"Some basketball observers have suggested that the 6-11 Thurmond provided the best mix of offense and defense in basketball history. Many say that his defense was better than Chamberlain’s, and that his offense was better than Bill Russell’s. With quickness and long hands, a smooth outside shooting touch, tenacious rebounding, classic shot blocking ability, and a total team attitude, Thurmond offered a perfectly balanced package."

Thurmond is one of the most underrated players of all time and is top 50, no question in my mind.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/defensive-dominator-thurmond-one-nbas-most-underrated-all-time

Thurmond went against Wilt, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Unseld, Bellamy, Beaty, Cowens, Reed - all in their prime. Yet he still managed:

-7 all star games in 14 seasons

-2 times all defensive 1st team, 3 times all defensive 2nd team...despite the fact that all defense awards didn't exist until his 6th season! Clearly one of the best defensive players of all time and one of the best rebounders of all time

-Did not make a 1st or 2nd team all NBA (obviously those usually went to Wilt/Kareem/Russell) but there's very little question he would have made quite a few all NBA 3rd team selections if it existed back when he played

-Finished 2nd in MVP voting in 66-67, finishing ahead of Russell, Robertson and Barry - Thurmond finished no. 2 behind Wilt who was no. 1. Finished 11th in 69-70, 8th in 70-7, 8th in 71-72, 9th in 72-73 and 8th in 73-74

-Helped his team to NBA Finals in 67, where they lost to arguably the greatest team of all time, the 67 Sixers. That series Thurmond averaged 14 PPG and 26.7 RPG while playing 47 MPG, going head to head vs Wilt. Thurmond's Warriors fell in 6 games to Wilt's Sixers. Let's compare that to the Eastern Division Finals - Russell (while also going against Wilt) averaged less PPG (11) and less RPG (23) than Thurmond, and Russell's Celtics lost in 5 games to Wilt's Sixers. How did Wilt do in each series? His numbers. were better in the Eastern Division Finals, going against Russell than they were in the NBA finals vs Thurmond. Wilt went from 21 PPG, 32 RPG and 10 APG vs Russell down to 17 PPG, 28 RPG and 6 APG vs Thurmond.

Elvin Hayes - here's why Hayes > Anthony Davis. Hayes = longer prime, much better longevity, much better durability. So if you're picking Davis right now you must really think that Davis peak is astronomically better than Hayes. But how good can Davis' peak really be when he's missed at least 7 games in every season of his career? He's never won MVP. He's only won 1 title and he had to join a stacked Lakers team led by LeBron James (who is literally the GOAT according to this poll) in order to win that title.

This is what Davis' Hornets/Pelicans teams did prior to Davis leaving for greener pastures, showing zero loyalty to the franchise the drafted him and teaming up with Lebron to form a super team:

2013 - below .500
2014 - below .500
2015 - swept in 1st round
2016 - below .500
2017 - below .500
2018 - lost 4 games to 1 in western conference semis
2019 - below .500

Why were Davis' teams always so bad before he arrived in LA? After all, those years (2012-2019) weren't exactly amazing years for the West. We're not talking about a stacked conference like the west was throughout the 90s or during the 2005-2009 timeframe. This was a time period where you had an old, aging Spurs team make it through a weak western conference to get to the the finals back to back years - then it was Warriors domination for the next several years with no other legit contenders in the west during that time except the 2018 Rockets. And the east was pretty weak those years as well other than Heat in 2013 and 2014 and then Cavs the next few years after that. So in a league that didn't have that many good teams - if Davis was that good of a player, how is it that he only made the playoffs 2 times out of 7 seasons, only made it out of the 1st round once and never made it to conference finals? Him, Rondo and Cousins was a solid core with some decent role players around them.

-In Davis' rookie year, the Hornets went 27-55. The year before they added Davis, they went 21-45. So after adding Davis, they won 6 more games but they lost 10 more. So that means they actually were 4 games worse after adding Davis
-In Hayes' rookie year, the Royals went 37-45. The year before they added Hayes, they went 15-67. So after adding Hayes, they got 22 games better.

Pretty significant edge for Hayes there ^

Davis has only played 8 seasons. That's simply not enough to be considered this early in the poll - only other guy with such bad longevity who's been voted in is Mikan and he was literally the best player on a championship team like 7 times - not to mention playing 7 seasons back in Mikan's era was like playing 14 seasons in the modern era.

Davis might seem like he has good numbers but consider:

1) Hayes playing in era with more possessions + playing more mins per game AND playing more games per season = he is more likely to be fatigued which accounts for his lower efficiency...whereas Davis, playing in era with less possessions + playing less mins per game and less games per season = he's less fatigued which accounts for his higher efficiency and higher numbers across the board..simply looking at per 100 possession numbers for who played 40 years apart is a slippery slope - the modern player has an unfair advantage
2) Hayes also played in a more physical era - dudes were literally getting the you know what beat out of them, there was less spacing, the paint (where Hayes operated) was more clogged up which also accounts for lower efficiency...all of that was the opposite for Davis, less physical era, so easier for him to have higher efficiency
3) No 3 point shot for most of Hayes' career (and all of his prime) so to make this an apples to apples comparison if you're looking it points per possession you'd have take all of the 3 point shots that Davis made and count them all as 2-pointers and then calculate his points. per possession.
4) The hoop/rim was different back in the 70s and so was the ball. The ball was not as favorable to dribble and shoot back then and the hoop/rim it was harder to get the ball to go in back then. The sneakers in modern era, they're more favorable, they allow you to run faster and jump higher. All of this helps Davis have better efficiency and accounts for Hayes' lower efficiency.
5) Not to mention Hayes was relied upon to carry more of his team's offensive load - teams geared up and game planned for stopping him, he saw more double teams, and it's more taxing, causes more fatigue when you have to carry the load, the shots you have to take have a higher degree of difficulty. Davis has had other guys who can score (LeBron, Cousins, etc.) so hasn't had to carry the load as much which helps his efficiency.

The durability factor is worth digging into further. Davis even during his 3 peak seasons (16-17, 17-18, 19-20) still missed 7, 7 and 9 games. If you look at his non-peak seasons, he's missing closer to 20 games per season. And this is is in an era with less physicality, more days off between games, star players playing less mins per game and the advantage of better weight training, better strength and conditioning programs, better supplements, better nutrition, better equipment, better facilities, etc. So it's not a reach to say that if Davis was playing in the 70s he would be a guy who at his peak would be missing 10-15 games a year and during non-peak seasons would be missing 30-40 games a year. You miss 30-40 games, you aren't even being remotely considered for an all NBA team. So we're looking at a player in Davis who is only a 3 time all NBA selection. Even as it stands today, Davis is only a 4 time all NBA selection. Does he really belong in the conversation for this poll? Cousy is a 12 time all NBA player and Hayes is a 6 time all NBA player.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#15 » by Odinn21 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:21 am

trex_8063 wrote:Can't decide if I'm a little surprised Parish doesn't have more traction at this stage.

This is why it's tough right now and will stay tough. It's the dilemma between centerpieces and complementary pieces. I'm still more centerpiece oriented and I see Mutombo as more valuable than Parish for instance.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#16 » by Dutchball97 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:44 pm

1. Paul Arizin - He led his team to a title in 56 with a dominant performance. Not a lot of players left who can say they won a title as the clear best player on their team. Top 3 in MVP voting twice, 5 seasons of 10+ WS and plenty of good showings in the post-season. In my opinion the only thing seperating Arizin from his contemporary Schayes is somewhat worse longevity but the gap isn't even that big and Arizin often got the best of Schayes in the play-offs in the late 50s. If anything I think Arizin is a bit overdue to get in and probably the last player left on the board I'd have put in my top 50.

2. Elvin Hayes - Hayes is just solid all around. He doesn't have an incredible peak but he still peaked decently high, he also managed to do that for quite a while resulting in strong longevity. This also translated to the post-season where Hayes had multiple strong post-seasons, including a leading role in a title.

3. Anthony Davis - In terms of regular season longevity AD is no lightweight. Davis 86 WS in the regular season falls short of most of the candidates with full careers but to put it into context it is already higher than the likes of Cowens, IT, Kawhi and Reed. His 5 years of 10+ WS match Arizin and is more than enough to prove to me AD's peak isn't an outlier. I'd have liked to have seen AD gotten a bit deeper in the play-offs as a first option as I don't think those Pelicans were that bad necessarily and even his great 2020 play-off run came as the clear second option but at this point his strong peak and decent longevity is enough for me to vote him here.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#17 » by 70sFan » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:25 pm

trex_8063 wrote:1st vote: Robert Parish
So yeah.....I'm a meaningful longevity guy. This is not a secret, nor new. And Parish is actually my clear top pick via my criteria; as my list stands now, there's actually no one left on the table who's even within 5 places of Parish.

But seriously:
Parish was an entirely fine two-way player [and was so for a really damn long time].
While I think he’s somewhat more remembered for his offense, he was also a very capable defender thru much of his career (especially early on).

For example, during his first SEVEN seasons in the league......
*He never averaged less than 2.8 blocks per 100 possessions (and as high as 4.4).
**In both ‘79 and ‘81 he was 4th in the league in bpg despite playing just 31.7 and 28.0 mpg; was 5th in ‘82 while playing just 31.7 mpg, too.
***He had a cumulative 97 DRtg, leading the league in DRtg in ‘79; had a DRtg in the top 8 four times (three times in the top 3).

Offensively, he was a 7-footer who ran the floor pretty well, while being a competent finisher (making him one of the more notable transition threats among the centers of his era). He was a very very good low-post scorer (could utilize a little hook shot, or that crazy high-arcing turnaround of his), and also had a tiny bit of range (out to about 12-14 feet, anyway, he was quite effective).
Was an entirely decent FT-shooter for a big-man (72.1% for his career).
The primary reason he was averaging just 16-20 ppg during his prime was because he was playing on an extremely stacked team thru most of it. I've little doubt prime Parish could have avg ~23-24 ppg for a less talent-laden club.

While I don't think Parish could have been “the man” on a contender, I think we’re well past the point on the list where that is a necessary consideration. Especially when one has the kind of longevity that Parish had: he had a prime that basically lasted 13 years (>1,000 rs games), and five other seasons as decent role player of varying (but certainly relevant) value; only 3 seasons (years 19-21) that were of negligible or nil value.

And while he couldn’t have been #1 on a contender, he certainly could have been the #1 on a 40-45 win playoff participant. I think this was more or less proven in '89 when Bird missed the entire season: Parish was arguably the best player [at worst a "1B"] on a 42-win team.....this was at age 35 (the single-oldest man on the Celtic roster). No Bird to feed him, but old-man Parish still averaged 18.6 ppg @ +7.0% rTS, to go with 12.5 rpg and 1.5 bpg.

And he was clearly capable of being the #2 on a contender. Indeed, he WAS either the 2nd or 3rd best player on MULTIPLE contenders.
He’s got one ring as the clear #2 ('81), another as---at worst---the #2B ('84), a third ring as the clear #3 ('86), and then a 4th ring as a sparsely used limited-value bench player ('97).

He was 7th in MVP voting in ‘81, 4th in MVP voting in ‘82.

A look at his prime production…….
Robert Parish (‘79-’91) (13 years: 1022 rs games!)
Per 100 (rs): 25.8 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk with 3.6 tov @ 58.4% TS
PER 20.2, .168 WS/48, 113 ORtg/102 DRtg (+11) in 32.4 mpg
Playoffs Per 100: 22.9 pts, 13.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.2 tov @ .551 TS%
PER 16.5, .121 WS/48 in 34.9 mpg

Robert Parish (full career)
Per 100 (rs): 24.6 pts, 15.5 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.5 tov @ .571 TS%
PER 19.2, .154 WS/48, 111 ORtg/102 DRtg (+9) in 28.4 mpg
**And note this is over 21 years, 1611 rs games (more than any other player in history)
Per 100 (playoffs): 22.6 pts, 14.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.1 tov @ .547 TS%
PER 16.6, .121 WS/48, 109 ORtg/105 DRtg (+4) in 33.6 mpg

Career rs WS: 147.0 (#26 all-time)
Career playoff WS: 15.6 (#39 all-time)
9-Time NBA All-Star
2-Time All-NBA (1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)

That’s an awful lot of career value, imo.


2nd vote: Elvin Hayes
A defensive stud [or semi-stud, at least] who played for a long time (seems longer when considering the insane mpg he had thru most of his career) while barely missing a game [9 missed games in 16 years :o ].
A pretty damn substantial piece of a title Bullets team, and an utterly massive statistical footprint (for whatever that's worth to you).
Whether you like his style or not, it can hardly be denied that he's a valid candidate here.


3rd vote: Anthony Davis
Was thinking really hard about breaking the ice on Allen Iverson, too. Bob Cousy I'd be more or less comfortable supporting here, too.
I think AD is arguably the best peak left on the board [imo it's between him, Giannis, and TMac, for that distinction]. Whereas TMac has a clear [almost outlier] peak season ('03), I think AD actually has a couple years of similar value (I think quite highly of his '15 campaign, which I think gets slept on).
Hell, even in '19 he was playing at an amazing level. I frowned a bit at how he stayed out [or was kept out] of games after he made it clear he wanted a trade. But you know, it's his prerogative to want to be somewhere where he can actually contend [and frankly anyone who uses '19 against him should be extra generous to Kevin Garnett for sticking it out for 12 fruitless years in Minnesota]; and once the decision was more or less set, the Pels too sort of WANTED to keep him out (to protect their trade asset). It's hardly any use if they play him too much in a dead-end season [ceiling is a 1st round exit at best] and risk him getting injured, at which point his stock goes way down.

Anyway.....
He's a proven good floor-raiser, and fit nicely next to Lebron to be the best 1-2 punch in the league on what ultimately was the championship team.
Came into the league as pretty much a borderline All-Star as a rookie [and as mentioned was (imo) at least weak MVP tier by his 3rd season], so though he's got only 8 seasons, he's packed a considerable amount of value in there.


For the record....
Among those with traction, I'm presently going with this order:
Parish > Hayes > Davis > Cousy > Dikembe > Mourning > Arizin > English.
fwiw, Iverson is right in there around the Cousy/Dikembe range for me, too. He might be the next guy I try to argue for.
After that I'll be looking at guys like Vince Carter, Dominique Wilkins, Wes Unseld, and Nate Thurmond.

Excellent post as usual, I have one minor disagreement regarding Parish offensive game - I don't think he was capable of being 23-25 ppg scorer even on less talented team.

1. He seemed to foul a lot at the beginning of his career, which is the reason why he struggled to play 30 mpg and even in GSW he couldn't carry the heavier minutes.

2. I agree that Parish was capable of scoring from the post (hookshot and rainbow turnaround being his main weapons), but I don't think he was good enough to do it more often than a few times per game. He was efficient finisher, but his footwork was very mechanical and he was called for a lot of traveling violations (most of them seemed to be right). On top of that he relied heavily on low % shots when he couldn't outquick (with his mediocre footwork it wasn't available often) or overpower (he was strong, but not explosive finisher, clearly preferred to jump from one leg) his opponent.

3. The most important part - Parish was bad passer. He lacked vision to handle double teams and his delivery was far from perfect as well. This is the main reason why I don't think Parish couldn't even be clear second option (he kind-of was that in 1981-83, but Celtics had a lot depth with McHale, Tiny, Maxwell). He just wasn't high IQ offensive player and his efficiency was a result from many easy points and occasional post-ups.

On the other hand, I think you underestimated his defense in your post. Parish was fantastic defender at his peak, among the best in the league. His defensive rotations were usually very sound and he was underrated rim protector. He was also mobile enough to cover some ground on perimeter, though his lateral moves were a bit stiff. On top of that, he was fantastic post defender - nobody else guarded Moses as well as him and he did decent job on the giants like Kareem or Gilmore. I liked his work as an older man against Hakeem and even Shaq as well.

He got a little worse when he lost some mobility and verticality in mid-80s, but he remained impactful defender until he got very old. Based on his high peak and excellent longevity, I can go as far as calling him top 20 defender ever (at least among centers).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#18 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:34 pm

Votes
1. AD
2. Allen Iverson
3. Thurmond


Hi guys. Sorry I haven't been able to be in all rounds.

Anyway I feel like this is Davis' time. His production was always high. He is a great scorer, a defensive anchor and a guy who brings good range as a big. He's also able to switch very well, so I believe he is among the best defenders left.

This era is not for bigs as the main piece, so he needs some perimeter creation and shot making in the team for it to be successfull, but that's something any big would need nowadays.

I see longevity as the thing that is holding him from being in the top 50, but if he is not too unfortunate he'll get there. He's a difference maker for the Lakers, close to MVP level and he was at absurd level in their last ring, so that run made wonders for him the way I see it.

I believe he's a better scorer than Duncan, Ewing, KG... so he's among the elite in C or PFs. I can only think of a few PF or Cs I'd give an edge over him as scorers or at least a discussion: Dirk, Malone and Barkley. And I'm not sure about the last two.

On defense I can see guys left who compete with him... like Mutombo. But they're miles away from what Davis' brings on offense.

From the guys already mentioned I'd take Paul Arizin right next.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:36 pm

70sFan wrote:Excellent post as usual, I have one minor disagreement regarding Parish offensive game - I don't think he was capable of being 23-25 ppg scorer even on less talented team.

1. He seemed to foul a lot at the beginning of his career, which is the reason why he struggled to play 30 mpg and even in GSW he couldn't carry the heavier minutes.

2. I agree that Parish was capable of scoring from the post (hookshot and rainbow turnaround being his main weapons), but I don't think he was good enough to do it more often than a few times per game. He was efficient finisher, but his footwork was very mechanical and he was called for a lot of traveling violations (most of them seemed to be right). On top of that he relied heavily on low % shots when he couldn't outquick (with his mediocre footwork it wasn't available often) or overpower (he was strong, but not explosive finisher, clearly preferred to jump from one leg) his opponent.


The 23-25 ppg is of course speculative, and I could be wrong.

However, if you look at my post #9 above, for example, it's noted that he did average 24.3 pts/36 min in '81 (did so in only 28 mpg). A big part of the reason he played only 28 mpg was as you said: foul-trouble [he averaged 4.9 PF/36 min].
That said, it's not hard to imagine [again, speculative] him tempering down the intensity on defense (as we see many stars do) when tasked with a larger offensive burden.
And fwiw beginning in the very next season, we see his foul-rate take a sharp decline facilitating a bump up in playing time [still averaging 22.6 pts/36, fwiw]; this was the start of a SOLID DECADE of playing >30 mpg [peaking at 37.4], too.

So if a 23-25 ppg is a stretch, I don't think it's a stretch by much. I could amend to 22-23 ppg, and I don't think that's being too bullish at all; he did average >18.5 FIVE times, mostly for teams with a lot of offensive depth.


70sFan wrote:3. The most important part - Parish was bad passer. He lacked vision to handle double teams and his delivery was far from perfect as well. This is the main reason why I don't think Parish couldn't even be clear second option (he kind-of was that in 1981-83, but Celtics had a lot depth with McHale, Tiny, Maxwell). He just wasn't high IQ offensive player and his efficiency was a result from many easy points and occasional post-ups.


I don't know that this necessarily precludes him from being a more featured scorer [at least in any huge way]. Kevin McHale, Moses Malone also poor and/or unwilling passers [and Moses even MORE turnover-prone], but didn't prevent them from being first option scorers.


70sFan wrote:On the other hand, I think you underestimated his defense in your post. Parish was fantastic defender at his peak, among the best in the league. His defensive rotations were usually very sound and he was underrated rim protector. He was also mobile enough to cover some ground on perimeter, though his lateral moves were a bit stiff. On top of that, he was fantastic post defender - nobody else guarded Moses as well as him and he did decent job on the giants like Kareem or Gilmore. I liked his work as an older man against Hakeem and even Shaq as well.

He got a little worse when he lost some mobility and verticality in mid-80s, but he remained impactful defender until he got very old. Based on his high peak and excellent longevity, I can go as far as calling him top 20 defender ever (at least among centers).


I did give him some kudos regarding defense, fwiw.
Though for the purposes of this project, and voting him appropriately: if I'm overrating him offensively and underrating him defensively, hopefully I'm OVERALL rating him reasonably accurate......and still feel he deserves more traction.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #58 

Post#20 » by trex_8063 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Sorry, started to use only his Celtics career numbers, must have gotten off track. I ignore the 3 extra years of Parish was scoring less than 5 ppg as virtually zero added value. In terms of scoring style you are correct, though Parish was the 4th option on those Celtics teams they did post him up more (not so much iso ball from what I remember) while Jones got his by off ball movement.



Just one nit to pick....
The bolded seems to refer to a somewhat narrow [LATE] sample of "those teams".....like '85 and later ONLY [which misses TWO of their three titles].

Below is Parish year-by-year team rank in: rs true shooting attempts per game, rs TSA per 36/ps TSA per game , ps TSA per 36 (* in front of year means lost in finals, ** means won finals)......

**'81: 2nd, 1st / 3rd, 1st
'82: 2nd, 1st / 1st, 1st
'83: 2nd, 2nd / 2nd, *7th (*one of those ahead is 14.0 mpg Buckner, another is 11.0 mpg Wedman, and McHale leads him by only 0.08 TSA/36)
**'84: 2nd, 3rd / 3rd, 5th (one of those ahead in per 36 was 13-mpg Scott Wedman)
*'85: 3rd, 4th / 4th, 6th [limited minute Wedman ahead in rs and ps in per 36, Ray Williams also in ps]
**'86: 4th, 5th / 4th, 3rd [not counting David Thirdkill [3.6 mpg in 13 ps games] or Sam Vincent 4.6 mpg in 9 ps games]
*'87: 3rd, *3rd-5th [depending on whether or not you count Sam Vincent [8.1 mpg in 46 games] or Conner Henry [6.4 mpg in 36 games] / 4th, 5th [including 8.3 mpg Sam Vincent]
'88: 5th, *5th-7th [depending on whether you include Jim Paxson [19.2 mpg in just 28 games] and Reggie Lewis [8.3 mpg in 49 games] / 4th, 5th [not including Lewis [5.8 mpg in 12 of 17 ps games] or Brad Lohaus [2.9 mpg in 9 games]]
'89 [not counting Bird's six games]: 1st, 2nd / 2nd, 2nd
'90: 3rd, 5th / 5th, 5th [not counting Michael Smith's 4 mpg in the playoffs]


So there's a solid decade of "those teams", and it's clear that "4th option" is only an accurate descriptor for '85 and after (with the exception of '89 [in Bird's absence] when he suddenly becomes the 2nd-option [or even the "1B"] for a year (at age 35, for a team that made the playoffs).
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