RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 (Elvin Hayes)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 (Elvin Hayes) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:52 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. ??

ANNOUNCEMENT: I realize the protocols we have in place are a pinch more complex than in years past. But I [again] want to strongly encourage everyone to---in addition to your votes---stipulate an order/hierarchy between all players with traction. Pretty much NO ONE from here to the finish will ever be a majority winner, so it's ALWAYS going to come down to Condorcet validations, runoffs, etc.
Seeing whom to include in your ordering does not take long: basically just look at the tallying post from the last thread--->whomever had a 1st-place vote that round and who is still on the table is likely to get a vote on the current thread, too. Plus maybe just do a quick scan of the vote posts and see who got [perhaps multiple] 2nd/3rd place votes......if they don't show up as relevant on the current thread, they undoubtedly will soon (so I'll soon need to know where you stand).

I'm going to single out sansterre, because he's been the model of proactive vote posting: he's listing all the guys who had a vote in the prior thread PLUS any others he even thinks might show up......and that is super helpful for me.

I make this announcement [again: STRONGLY encouraging everyone to follow suit] because I have gone back and tracked the rough # of hours the project has been delayed while waiting on various posters to state their opinions. I am very strongly considering instituting a suspension [from the voter panel] for those who are repeatedly holding the project up. At this point I'm worried we won't finish the 2020 project before the 2021 champion has been determined.

I'll help you all out this time; the players to make sure you've stated your order for include [but are not limited to]:
Arizin, Cousy, Hayes, Parish, Davis, English, Mourning, [+/- Thurmond]

That's pretty much a minimum (but feel free to include others). I will track these listings forward, so even doing this once every other thread will likely get you by.


Anyway, looking to conclude this one somewhere around 7-8 pm on Friday.

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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:57 am

1st vote: Robert Parish
So yeah.....I'm a meaningful longevity guy. This is not a secret, nor new. And Parish is actually my clear top pick via my criteria; as my list stands now, there's actually no one left on the table who's even within 5 places of Parish.

But seriously:
Parish was an entirely fine two-way player [and was so for a really damn long time].
While I think he’s somewhat more remembered for his offense, he was also a very capable defender thru much of his career (especially early on).

For example, during his first SEVEN seasons in the league......
*He never averaged less than 2.8 blocks per 100 possessions (and as high as 4.4).
**In both ‘79 and ‘81 he was 4th in the league in bpg despite playing just 31.7 and 28.0 mpg; was 5th in ‘82 while playing just 31.7 mpg, too.
***He had a cumulative 97 DRtg, leading the league in DRtg in ‘79; had a DRtg in the top 8 four times (three times in the top 3).

Offensively, he was a 7-footer who ran the floor pretty well, while being a competent finisher (making him one of the more notable transition threats among the centers of his era). He was a very very good low-post scorer (could utilize a little hook shot, or that crazy high-arcing turnaround of his), and also had a tiny bit of range (out to about 12-14 feet, anyway, he was quite effective).
Was an entirely decent FT-shooter for a big-man (72.1% for his career).
The primary reason he was averaging just 16-20 ppg during his prime was because he was playing on an extremely stacked team thru most of it. I've little doubt prime Parish could have avg ~23-24 ppg for a less talent-laden club.

While I don't think Parish could have been “the man” on a contender, I think we’re well past the point on the list where that is a necessary consideration. Especially when one has the kind of longevity that Parish had: he had a prime that basically lasted 13 years (>1,000 rs games), and five other seasons as decent role player of varying (but certainly relevant) value; only 3 seasons (years 19-21) that were of negligible or nil value.

And while he couldn’t have been #1 on a contender, he certainly could have been the #1 on a 40-45 win playoff participant. I think this was more or less proven in '89 when Bird missed the entire season: Parish was arguably the best player [at worst a "1B"] on a 42-win team.....this was at age 35 (the single-oldest man on the Celtic roster). No Bird to feed him, but old-man Parish still averaged 18.6 ppg @ +7.0% rTS, to go with 12.5 rpg and 1.5 bpg.

And he was clearly capable of being the #2 on a contender. Indeed, he WAS either the 2nd or 3rd best player on MULTIPLE contenders.
He’s got one ring as the clear #2 ('81), another as---at worst---the #2B ('84), a third ring as the clear #3 ('86), and then a 4th ring as a sparsely used limited-value bench player ('97).

He was 7th in MVP voting in ‘81, 4th in MVP voting in ‘82.

A look at his prime production…….
Robert Parish (‘79-’91) (13 years: 1022 rs games!)
Per 100 (rs): 25.8 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk with 3.6 tov @ 58.4% TS
PER 20.2, .168 WS/48, 113 ORtg/102 DRtg (+11) in 32.4 mpg
Playoffs Per 100: 22.9 pts, 13.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.2 tov @ .551 TS%
PER 16.5, .121 WS/48 in 34.9 mpg

Robert Parish (full career)
Per 100 (rs): 24.6 pts, 15.5 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.5 tov @ .571 TS%
PER 19.2, .154 WS/48, 111 ORtg/102 DRtg (+9) in 28.4 mpg
**And note this is over 21 years, 1611 rs games (more than any other player in history)
Per 100 (playoffs): 22.6 pts, 14.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.1 tov @ .547 TS%
PER 16.6, .121 WS/48, 109 ORtg/105 DRtg (+4) in 33.6 mpg

Career rs WS: 147.0 (#26 all-time)
Career playoff WS: 15.6 (#39 all-time)
9-Time NBA All-Star
2-Time All-NBA (1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)

That’s an awful lot of career value, imo.


2nd vote: Elvin Hayes
A defensive stud [or semi-stud, at least] who played for a long time (seems longer when considering the insane mpg he had thru most of his career) while barely missing a game [9 missed games in 16 years :o ].
A pretty damn substantial piece of a title Bullets team, and an utterly massive statistical footprint (for whatever that's worth to you).
Whether you like his style or not, it can hardly be denied that he's a valid candidate here.


3rd vote: Anthony Davis
Was thinking really hard about breaking the ice on Allen Iverson, too. Bob Cousy I'd be more or less comfortable supporting here, too.
I think AD is arguably the best peak left on the board [imo it's between him, Giannis, and TMac, for that distinction]. Whereas TMac has a clear [almost outlier] peak season ('03), I think AD actually has a couple years of similar value (I think quite highly of his '15 campaign, which I think gets slept on).
Hell, even in '19 he was playing at an amazing level. I frowned a bit at how he stayed out [or was kept out] of games after he made it clear he wanted a trade. But you know, it's his prerogative to want to be somewhere where he can actually contend [and frankly anyone who uses '19 against him should be extra generous to Kevin Garnett for sticking it out for 12 fruitless years in Minnesota]; and once the decision was more or less set, the Pels too sort of WANTED to keep him out (to protect their trade asset). It's hardly any use if they play him too much in a dead-end season [ceiling is a 1st round exit at best] and risk him getting injured, at which point his stock goes way down.

Anyway.....
He's a proven good floor-raiser, and fit nicely next to Lebron to be the best 1-2 punch in the league on what ultimately was the championship team.
Came into the league as pretty much a borderline All-Star as a rookie [and as mentioned was (imo) at least weak MVP tier by his 3rd season], so though he's got only 8 seasons, he's packed a considerable amount of value in there.


For the record....
Among those with traction, I'm presently going with this order:
Parish > Hayes > Davis > Cousy > Mourning > Thurmond > Arizin > English.
fwiw, Iverson is right in there around the Cousy range for me, too. He might be the next guy I try to argue for once one of my present votes is off the table.
After that I'll be looking at guys like Vince Carter, Dominique Wilkins, Wes Unseld, and Nate Thurmond for my votes.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:58 am

Quoted from last thread [for lobbying purposes :)]:

trex_8063 wrote:Can't decide if I'm a little surprised Parish doesn't have more traction at this stage.

I realize, obviously, that I'm more "longevity-driven" in my criteria than most posters; I also give more credence to rs achievement because to do otherwise is neglecting the larger sample size [what is frequently the ONLY sample size for many players in given years], as well as ignoring their average performance against ALL of their professional peers [and instead focusing on performance only against the more elite among their peers].
But still.....

As sansterre said, Parish was probably never a "great" player. But he was quite good; and he "did that crap forever".
And he had a few years that are kinda-sorta approaching great(ish). Was he ever a top-5 player in the league? Probably not [although he did finish 4th in the MVP vote in '82, and was 7th in '81], but he was probably REALLY close, and imo certainly has TWO seasons as a top-10 player in the league [perhaps even easily].

'81 [the year he finished 7th in the MVP vote] is the most intriguing to me.

Looking at the all-in-one metrics, he was:
2nd in the league in PER
3rd in WS/48
4th in BPM
tied for 2nd [with Kareem] in PIPM

The caveat to all of the above? He did this while playing only 28.0 mpg (whereas nearly everyone else in his vicinity was playing 33+ [if not 36+] mpg).
In raw terms, he was averaging 18.9 ppg @ +4.44% rTS, 9.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.3 topg, 1.0 spg, 2.6 bpg.
Those aren't Earth-shattering numbers. But here the consideration that he played only 28 mpg works in his favour. Consider that---per 36 minutes---the highlights translate to:
24.3 ppg, 12.2 rpg, and 3.4 bpg (@ +4.44% rTS, with 3.0 topg).

That's getting pretty close to a "holy s***" superstar statline, no?

But he didn't play 36 mpg; he only played 28 mpg. And of course he couldn't maintain that exact production and efficiency for 36 minutes. Things like fatigue [both physical and mental] and foul-trouble would more frequently come into play. HOWEVER, it's not unreasonable to assume he would have been capable of something like 23.0 ppg @ +3.5% rTS, 12.0 rpg, and 3.0 bpg (with maybe like 2.9 topg) if he'd been played 36 minutes........which a 23/12/3 statline would be pretty impressive, no?

Point being, Parish was quite good, and might have been a fringe top-5 player that year, at least in the rs.

'82 [his 4th-place MVP finish] isn't far behind: was 9th in PER, tied for 9th in WS/48, tied for 14th in BPM, and was 6th in PIPM; this time while playing 31.7 mpg.
In raw terms, that was 19.9 ppg @ +3.30% rTS, 10.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.8 topg, 0.9 spg, 2.4 bpg.
In the playoffs, his efficiency fell a bit, though he did average 21.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, and a league-best 4.0 bpg.

So imo, he's clearly a top-10 player [at least] in both of these years.


Beyond that, it's sort of like sansterre said a thread or so back: he was basically an All-Star or pretty close to it for like 14-15 years.
Seriously, if you look at the 15 years from '79-'93 (longer than the entire careers of Jones [either one of them], Arizin, or Cousy [and in a tougher era, imo]), probably '80 and '88 are the only years he is NOT at least a top 25-30 player in the league (and he's still easily a top 50 player both of those years, imo).
MOST of those other 13 years he's a top 20 [usually top 15-16] player in the league, too.
Depending on how you valuate total career value, he's got OTHER seasons OUTSIDE of this span that are arguably worth something. Really [imo] there are only two seasons [out of 21] that are of little or no consequence in his career.


Again, I realize I'm more centric on longevity than most; but I hit a point where I have to ask myself if---for example---a single season as a top 5-6 player is more valuable than THREE seasons as a fringe top 13-15 player?
Or is ONE fringe top-10 season more valuable than THREE fringe top-20 seasons?

These are questions that bear scrutiny when evaluating Robert Parish.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#4 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:27 am

1. Arizin
2. Elvin Hayes
3. Robert Parish

Arizin was top 2-3 player in the league in 50s, and led team to 56 title. Johnson's stats look good, but his lack of support at the time and what others said make me think his were pretty empty stats.

Hayes was a great player for a long time, had his scoring and efficiency increase in the playoffs, and both raised a terrible expansion team to playoffs, plus was a 1a/1b player on a championship team and 3 time finalists.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#5 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:07 am

1. Paul Arizin - He led his team to a title in 56 with a dominant performance. Not a lot of players left who can say they won a title as the clear best player on their team. Top 3 in MVP voting twice, 5 seasons of 10+ WS and plenty of good showings in the post-season. In my opinion the only thing seperating Arizin from his contemporary Schayes is somewhat worse longevity but the gap isn't even that big and Arizin often got the best of Schayes in the play-offs in the late 50s. If anything I think Arizin is a bit overdue to get in and probably the last player left on the board I'd have put in my top 50.

2. Elvin Hayes - Hayes is just solid all around. He doesn't have an incredible peak but he still peaked decently high, he also managed to do that for quite a while resulting in strong longevity. This also translated to the post-season where Hayes had multiple strong post-seasons, including a leading role in a title.

3. Anthony Davis - In terms of regular season longevity AD is no lightweight. Davis 86 WS in the regular season falls short of most of the candidates with full careers but to put it into context it is already higher than the likes of Cowens, IT, Kawhi and Reed. His 5 years of 10+ WS match Arizin and is more than enough to prove to me AD's peak isn't an outlier. I'd have liked to have seen AD gotten a bit deeper in the play-offs as a first option as I don't think those Pelicans were that bad necessarily and even his great 2020 play-off run came as the clear second option but at this point his strong peak and decent longevity is enough for me to vote him here.


Parish > English > Mourning > Cousy > Thurmond
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#6 » by Odinn21 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:09 am

59. Elvin Hayes
Hayes' peak isn't that special among these names but his prime duration, overall longevity and durability are just too strong. He was an inefficient scorer but he made up more than enough with his relentless offense, rebounding and defense. He has to be one of the highest motor players ever, and coupled with his durability (9 missed games in 16 seasons :-o ), his case for the top 60 is just great.
(In terms of advanced metrics Hayes is one of Moses-esque figures in the game's history.)

60. Alonzo Mourning
It's quite insane that we as a group have forgotten about Mourning. He had Walton-Reed like career in a way but the unlucky injury hit him much later. He had 8 good prime seasons with very very good peak. He still had 4 seasons of regular games after the injury, his overall longevity isn't great but it's there. His intangibles were great.
Dantley is the only pick I'm certain right now and I'm going through names to be more certain and I had Mutombo in my ballot before but I'm changing him to Mourning/Hayes.

61. Tony Parker
His peak is underrated, also how long his peak lasted is underrated. I'd personally pick 2013 as his peak but I definitely see someone going for 2009 which was only to be disrupted by injury in 2010 in the future. In 2009, he was in the top 10% percentile in impact numbers. In 2012 and 2013 he was in the very top 1%. He usually is considered as not so great impact player but he really was at his best. His prime duration beyond peak duration was also good. He had 9 seasons of actual prime with 4 seasons worthy of peak. Even before going into extended prime which I usually refer as just prime, he was a force for a decade and a half. Yeah, his overall longevity is worse than Parish without a doubt but I think edges going in his favour for peak and prime are more than that.
Some of us in here usually look at WS or VORP but in Parker's case, sheer numbers are more telling.
He's #10* in total points and #5 in total assists in the pro playoff history. It's very likely that Durant will surpass Parker for that #10 spot in 2021 playoffs but the point stands still. Parker is the only player in top 20 to make the list yet it's obvious that his peak/prime/longevity stack more than enough at this point in the list.
(*He's #9 in the NBA playoff history. Erving's ABA career.)

Hayes and Mourning have been in the contention for the last several threads. I'd expect one of them to be my effective vote. If not, let me know mate. Cheers. :)

Edit; I have Parish over the other players with traction.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#7 » by HeartBreakKid » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:18 am

Criteria

I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health f their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Giannis Antetokounmpo - I can see why he isn't getting much traction as he's still young. Though he has 6 seasons of being a good player and 5/6 of them he was all-nba caliber I think. Two well deserved MVP's is nothing to scoff at and even though he is slammed for his playoff failures he still did make the conference finals. I am fairly convinced that his crazy ability to finish in the paint as well as have the handles to get into there produces so much gravity that if he played with another real star you wouldn't be able to just "stay back and let Giannis shoot". As he is now he still requires 3-4 guys jumping in the paint - what if you replaced Khris Middleton with Curry, Bryant, Durant, Pierce etc - these are all guys who were 2nd options or co-anchors of teams. Seems like a lot of players who do not have MVP caliber teammates are held to the same standards as guys with them which does not make sense to me. I can see why me picking Jokic would be controversial, but Giannis seems pretty primed for this type of competition - I don't think he is any less valuable than Anthony Davis, and I am still not sure how Davis winning a title with LBJ convinces people that he is a much better post season player than Giannis.



Anthony Davis. I think he is kind of like a better version of Karl Malone. His ability to play off others seems more effective than Karl Malone - certainly comparable as a finisher. Defense he is a couple years above Karl. That should mean he goes pretty high up here. Some big competition he's facing from other bigs would be Hayes, who anchored way more great defenses than Davis but his scoring is really lousy in comparison.



Alonzo Mourning. He's not much worse than Dwight Howard who I think is comfortably a top 40 player. I think Alonzo is not as good of a defender as his reputation suggest but his verticality is still very intimidating. His flawed offensive game is well documented in this section so I don't see a reason to dog him, but he is still a legitimate two way player with massive defensive impact. I just remembered Giannis existed so he bumps Alonzo out.



Arizin is my 6th place guy over someone like Hayes who I reckon is one of the favorites for this round. I put Mutumbo over Arizin because I think Mutumbo's top ten defense is enough to over shadow Arizin's co-anchor ability to score. Hayes is just not that level of defender as Mutmumbo so I'd give the benefit of the doubt to Paul. I know Arizin's teammates made it easy for him in the playoffs in his key seasons but you could say the same for Hayes who did not play with chop liver in the Bullets best seasons. I also think Arizin is the 2nd best player of the 50s (behind Petitt, 3rd if we include Bill Russell of course), in a vacuum I think he is even better than Mikan. While the NBA was not truly major league in the 1950s, basketball as a sport was still incredibly popular, so there has to be some value in being the 2nd best player on the planet.



Mourning> Arizin>Thurmond>Hayes>McGrady>English>Parish>Cousy


EDIT: I'm making a lot of edits, trying to catch up in this thread. That's why I write a bit for 4-6th place because they were actually my top 3 when I first started this post.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#8 » by penbeast0 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:36 pm

1. Alex English -- Versatility, consistency, and character put English over the likes of Dantley, Nique, Tmac, etc. English played many roles and always made his teams better no matter what role Denver played him in. He was a solid 35-30ppg scorer at above average efficiency for a full decade. In the 1980s he scored more points than Larry Bird, Dominique Wilkens, Adrian Dantley, Isiah Thomas, Moses Malone, or well, anyone. And he did it while generally guarding the better of the opponents starting forwards in the era of the great scoring forwards. From watching him, I have him as the only above average defender among the killer lineup of great scoring fowards of his era (Bird, Gervin, Nique, AD, King, Aquirre). One of the most underrated players in history. Also won numerous citizenship awards, one of the great people to play the game.

2. Anthony Davis -- last season pushed his totals for me quite a bit. 8 year career, great peak/playoff run. Two way player, very versatile.

3. Paul Arizin MVP who led his team to a title, albeit in the weak 1950s. When he left for the military, the team was badly hurt; when the team's other big name star, Neil Johnston, was out for a year, the team was only affected in a minor way. If you are going to put a 50s star in, it makes more sense to vote for Arizin, who made his team a champion, than Cousy, a flashy spectacular player that fans loved but a poor defender and less efficient a scorer. One of the Cousy supporters talks about his rings but Cousy was actually a playoff detriment to the team in those title seasons (except possibly 1957), his scoring efficiency was truly awful -- Russell Westbrook in Washington bad -- and yet he kept shooting at high volumes. He should go in as a 50s star but his play from 58 on, particularly in the playoffs, was not HOF level or even close.

Then: Bobby Jones, another English type player with super consistency and versatility though a defensive star instead of an offensive one, Parish (better combination of offense and defense than Hayes, Thurmond, or Lanier). Note that Jones has more 1st team All-Defense teams than any other player in history. None of the centers are good passers.

Guys that I love but whose primes are too short to be top 5 right now: Giannis, Hawkins, Moncrief, Lever, Walton . . . convince me they have played long enough to go ahead of an Anthony Davis (short but not AS short) or Bobby Jones type player. I'd have the first three over the likes of Penny Hardaway who has been mentioned. Lever may not make my top 100, Walton almost definitely won't. 1.5 seasons as a star and 1 as a top reserve does not make up for 10 as a highly paid injury; it's a shame because he's probably top 20 all-time with more seasons, maybe top 10.

After Jones and Parish, call it Giannis, then Mourning, Hayes, Thurmond, Nique, Cousy, Tmac.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#9 » by penbeast0 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:37 pm

Parish v. Bobby Jones (who I had right after Parish on my list, until I looked at it like this):

Longevity: (ADV PARISH)
Parish 18 full seasons! 31.6mpg (excluding the small pieces of 3 more as bench piece at end of career which frankly weren't impressive); Jones 12 full seasons, 27.3 mpg (his greatest weakness -- limited endurance due to his asthma) -- The extra 6 seasons are why I had Parish first, I think Jones is stronger per minute/season starting this analysis.

Defense: (EDGE JONES)
Parish -- good defender, shotblocker, traditional center; Jones -- arguably greatest defensive combo forward ever (probably Rodman if you consider defensive rebounding part of defense). 11 1st team All-Defense Awards (1st 2 ABA), plus a 2nd team in his final season. Very good shotblocker for a forward, good steals totals, one of only 4 players who ever averaged 2bl/2st in a season along with Hakeem, DRob, and Gerald Wallace (Wallace's numbers look like a fluke as he was not a shot blocker any other seasons -- but if you've ever watched game film of Bill Russell, he gets a ton of poke away steals so still 4), very good positional defender though his lateral footspeed isn't outstanding. This is Bobby Jones's main argument.

Scoring (per 100 posessions): (EDGE JONES)
Parish 24.6/100 on .571 ts%, 22.6 on .537 playoffs, 3 times in top 10 in ts% in league, good face up game for a center
Jones 20.1/100 on .607 ts%, 19.9 on .593 playoffs, led league in ts% once and was top 10 6 times in his 12 years despite being more a short/midrange jump shooter than a post up guy though he had hops and could throw it down.

Rebounding: (ADV PARISH)
Parish 17.9 reb rate, 16.2 playoffs, should have an advantage as a center rather than a forward
Jones 11.8 reb rate, 10.5 playoffs, played more PF than SF so this is not strong even so

Passing: (EDGE JONES)
Parish 6.9 ast rate, 13.9 turnover rate, playoffs 5.6/12.9 (maybe it wasn't McHale who was the black hole)
Jones 12.2 ast rate, 14.8 turnover rate, playoffs 12.5/14.9 (I actually thought Jones would be better than this but still appreciably better than Parish)

Intangibles: Both consistently played for winners, Jones more of a vocal leader, Parish was sort of the great stone face out there. Not going to call an edge here, but if there is, it's Bobby Jones.

I went into this thinking Parish should rate higher; I tend to favor centers in the 20th century where you couldn't win an NBA championship without a HOF center (except for Rick Barry in 75 and Bill Laimbeer in Detroit). Looking at it more carefully, I think Jones was just significantly more valuable in an average year, enough to make up for Parish's longevity edge unless you are giving centers an even stronger boost than I do.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:40 pm

English v. Nique v. Tmac

Two of the greatest scorers of the 80s, both classy guys who stayed with one team for a decade. Tmac is a more modern player who gets the advantage of the 3 point shot being used in his lifetime but suffers in terms of leadership and locker room issues as more than 1 of his coaches have complained about his practice habits and insistence on doing things his way instead of playing within the team concept.

Defensively, Tmac has the edge on peak, English on consistency. Strangely enough Wilkins probably played on the best defensive teams with those Mike Fratello Hawks squads but he fails the eye test, once getting voted "player who puts the least effort on defense" in a player contest in Sports Illustrated (over George Gervin who came in second). Tmac could be a terrific defender when locked in; English started with more of a rep as a defensive player than a scorer in Milwaukee and Indiana before coming to Denver and starting a run where he scored more points during the 80s than anyone else, including Larry Bird, Adrian Dantley, and Nique among others.

IN terms of scoring, English is the most efficient, shooting at a .550 ts% for his career, Nique is behind him at .536, with Tmac trailing at .519 though in a tougher defensive era. Since the main value of each of the three is their volume scoring, this seems a strong argument for English. On the other hand, while all three were big volume scorers, Nique scored the most per 100 possessions at 34.5pts (though he was also the most frequently iso scorer rather than scoring in the flow of the offense), Tmac is a 31.6 and English at 30.4. Tmac has the single dominant season of the 3 when Grant Hill went down to injury and Orlando featured Tmac all the time every time; but he was also less consistent and more often injured than the other two.

In terms of playmaking, Tmac was the primary playmaker at 7.1 assists per 100 possessions, English a decent secondary playmaker at 5.1, and Wilkins not creating much for others at 3.5. Nique also turned the ball over 3.5 times/100 possessions as did Tmac with English only a hair better at 3.3. Rebounding gives the edge to Nique by a hair of Tmac at 9.3 v. 9.1 v. 7.7 to English.
English was not used much as an iso star so his usage is a bit lower.

In terms of versatility and a willingness to take on different roles to help the team, English has a strong case, at different times, he was the primary front court defensive stopper (next to Kiki Vandeweghe and Dan Issel), a post up threat (same team), the primary outside shooter (later teams with Fat Lever and TR Dunn at guard), a point forward, an offball player, etc. Tmac played much more 2 guard and even some 4 which neither of the other two did much of, he even played PG at time. Nique changed his game to incorporate a 3 point shot toward the end of his career which English never really added.

Playoff success is the one additional factor that frequently gets mentioned. Tmac went to the playoffs less and never got out of the 1st round but had some great numbers in losing series. From watching him, he tended to play less well when his teammates were strong but would suddenly take on the superman mantle when Hill went out in Orlando or when Yao would get injured in Houston and just be a one man wrecking crew. English's numbers didn't drop at all in the playoffs, maybe because of his versatility. His teams had one WCF appearance and 4 times into the second round for the most playoff success of the 3. Nique is one of the great whose number drop the most precipitously in playoff competition; maybe because he tended to one particular style that could be gamed more, I don't know. He had ATL in the playoffs every year but two but only got out of the 1st round 3 times in the stacked East of his era.

I have it English, Wilkins, Tmac based primarily on efficiency, consistency, and character and I think it's a pretty clear edge for English. Nique and TMac have a definite advantage in flash being great dunkers while English would get a "quiet" 25-30; Nique also had possibly the greatest nickname in NBA history -- this translated into more accolades for the two flashier players.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#11 » by Owly » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:55 pm

penbeast0 wrote:English v. Nique v. Tmac

Two of the greatest scorers of the 80s, both classy guys who stayed with one team for a decade. Tmac is a more modern player who gets the advantage of the 3 point shot being used in his lifetime but suffers in terms of leadership and locker room issues as more than 1 of his coaches have complained about his practice habits and insistence on doing things his way instead of playing within the team concept.

Defensively, Tmac has the edge on peak, English on consistency. Strangely enough Wilkins probably played on the best defensive teams with those Mike Fratello Hawks squads but he fails the eye test, once getting voted "player who puts the least effort on defense" in a player contest in Sports Illustrated (over George Gervin who came in second). Tmac could be a terrific defender when locked in; English started with more of a rep as a defensive player than a scorer in Milwaukee and Indiana before coming to Denver and starting a run where he scored more points during the 80s than anyone else, including Larry Bird, Adrian Dantley, and Nique among others.

IN terms of scoring, English is the most efficient, shooting at a .550 ts% for his career, Nique is behind him at .536, with Tmac trailing at .519 though in a tougher defensive era. Since the main value of each of the three is their volume scoring, this seems a strong argument for English. On the other hand, while all three were big volume scorers, Nique scored the most per 100 possessions at 34.5pts (though he was also the most frequently iso scorer rather than scoring in the flow of the offense), Tmac is a 31.6 and English at 30.4. Tmac has the single dominant season of the 3 when Grant Hill went down to injury and Orlando featured Tmac all the time every time; but he was also less consistent and more often injured than the other two.

In terms of playmaking, Tmac was the primary playmaker at 7.1 assists per 100 possessions, English a decent secondary playmaker at 5.1, and Wilkins not creating much for others at 3.5. Nique also turned the ball over 3.5 times/100 possessions as did Tmac with English only a hair better at 3.3. Rebounding gives the edge to Nique by a hair of Tmac at 9.3 v. 9.1 v. 7.7 to English.
English was not used much as an iso star so his usage is a bit lower.

In terms of versatility and a willingness to take on different roles to help the team, English has a strong case, at different times, he was the primary front court defensive stopper (next to Kiki Vandeweghe and Dan Issel), a post up threat (same team), the primary outside shooter (later teams with Fat Lever and TR Dunn at guard), a point forward, an offball player, etc. Tmac played much more 2 guard and even some 4 which neither of the other two did much of, he even played PG at time. Nique changed his game to incorporate a 3 point shot toward the end of his career which English never really added.

Playoff success is the one additional factor that frequently gets mentioned. Tmac went to the playoffs less and never got out of the 1st round but had some great numbers in losing series. From watching him, he tended to play less well when his teammates were strong but would suddenly take on the superman mantle when Hill went out in Orlando or when Yao would get injured in Houston and just be a one man wrecking crew. English's numbers didn't drop at all in the playoffs, maybe because of his versatility. His teams had one WCF appearance and 4 times into the second round for the most playoff success of the 3. Nique is one of the great whose number drop the most precipitously in playoff competition; maybe because he tended to one particular style that could be gamed more, I don't know. He had ATL in the playoffs every year but two but only got out of the 1st round 3 times in the stacked East of his era.

That "stopper" tag seems to be being invoked by default and on one of the worst defensive teams ever (to be fair, single-year wise Magic '04 are as bad as '82 Nuggets, but this far more an outlier). I won't say I have a firm grasp on his D, but hard for be to see justifying the use of the "stopper" tag whether as a role or descriptive.

Without a deep dive, English's playoff numbers are holding steady but ...
a) from a lower baseline (19.9 career PER, .127 WS/48)
b) I would think versus weaker opposition and defenses (an I'd guess often prelim round or solid seed in 80s West) versus tougher conference (both to some degree, otoh) or from tougher seed (T-Mac in the East with, but mostly from 8th seed, 7th seed). This might account for "playoff success" too, which again, otoh, unlikely to involve advancing through many legit contender level teams.

This doesn't mean he didn't produce better than Wilkins in the playoffs but causes other than versatility might be at play. I would note at the margins the uni-polar Hawks attack might have made Wilkins vulnerable to targeted game-planning (how one interprets this - if one agrees - is open to reasonable debate).

On English as "started with more of a rep as a defensive player than a scorer in Milwaukee ...", versatility a contrary opinion comes from Hollander handbooks. After year one his capsule/profile includes
needs to pick up a book about defense and read it before this season

after year two, the less brutal analysis is
has to become a better-rounded player before he can claim a starting job

[other candidates for that starting job at time of publication, Corky Calhoun, Bob Carrington (waived - CBA), maybe Ron Behagen (waived - 165 NBA minutes across 3 teams that next year)]
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#12 » by Hal14 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:38 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Bob Cousy
2. Nate Thurmond
3. Elvin Hayes

Bob Cousy - Very underrated on this board. When you look at the players from his era, Mikan and Pettit were better than Cousy. But Cousy has a strong argument for being better than any other player from his era. You could argue that Cousy was better than Schayes and Schayes got voted in a long time ago in the no. 41 spot.

Cousy - 13x all star, 10x all NBA 1st team, 1 MVP, 6x NBA title
Schayes - 12x all star, 6x all NBA 1st team, 0 MVP, 1x NBA title

Cousy has a clear edge in awards and titles over Schayes plus had greater impact on the game - decades later, Cousy was the guy all point guards modeled their game after. Did Schayes do that? Of course not - he was a PF and the guy back then all PFs modeled their game after was Pettit.

What about Arizin? He was a SF and he didn't have as much impact as Cousy either - Baylor was the guy back then all SFs would model their game after - not Arizin.

And as for awards and titles, we have:

Cousy - 13x all star, 10x all NBA 1st team, 2x all NBA 2nd team, 1 MVP, 6x NBA title
Arizin - 10x all star, 3x all NBA 1st team, 1x all NBA 2nd team, 0 MVP, 1x NBA title

Not to mention the impact Cousy had on the game and his legacy. We simply had never before seen a guy who could make the kind of passes that Cousy could. It's like he had eyes in the back of his head - able to see 2 steps ahead of the opposition, able to anticipate where his teammates would be, hit teammates perfectly in stride for transition layups. Some of the plays he made - you might watch them today in 2021 and think they are routine plays - but a) many of the plays he made were truly outstanding and not routine at all and b) He was so far ahead of his time - to make the types of plays he did back in the 50s was pretty amazing. Keep in mind back then there was much more strict rules in regards to dribbling. The way players dribble the ball in today's game - they would get called for a carry, palming or travel pretty much every time down the floor. Cousy was called the hardwood Houdini for a reason. And it's not like he was all flash and no substance (like Maravich, Jason Williams, etc.), Cousy was all about winning. That's all he cared about - winning. Scoring the basketball, making great passes to teammates to get them baskets. Hell, he was even a good rebounder for his size. He did whatever it takes to win. He became the player that all point guards who would come later on would model their games after.

Not for another 2 decades when Frazier came along would we see a player as good as Cousy at both scoring and setting up teammates for scores. Frazier was obviously a better defender, but he also had the advantage of coming along decades later, when more players were lifting weights, rules weren't as strict on palming/carrying/traveling, the ball was easier to shoot and easier to dribble than the one Cousy played with, etc. Frazier was voted in at the no. 30 spot in this poll. Is he really 26 spots better than Cousy? No way.



Cousy led the NBA in assists 8 years in a row.

Cousy was hands down the best player at his position for an entire decade, was considered the best scorer and best passer at his position for an entire decade, and completely ignore all of the awards (which were voted on be people who actually were alive back then and followed the game very closely LIVE and based their voting off not just stats but also intangibles, eye test and impact the player had on the game, reputation around the league, etc. and also completely ignoring contributing the more titles than any PG ever, a huge part of the greatest dynasty in NBA history, the guy who was the one leading the famous Celtics fast break which changed the way the game would be played from then on since up until then no one else was playing that type of push the tempo, run run run, get quick shots up before the defense is set type of style. Let's also ignore that during his career Cousy made more high degree of difficulty shots - shots that literally no one had ever even attempted, let alone made, he was also the league's best ball handler and passer for his entire career - in an era where they played with a ball that was MUCH more difficult to dribble, pass and shoot than the ball they have the advantage of playing with today.

Nate Thurmond - right in that same tier with Reed, Gilmore and Ewing. I see those four centers as pretty debatable. Ewing, Gilmore and Reed all got voted in already - it's Thurmond's time now. Thurmond has a strong case for being better than all 3 of them (probably the best defender of the group, but Gilmore has the longevity and ABA Finals MVP, Reed has 2 Finals MVPs so I've got Thurmond just barely ranked behind those other guys).

Article here:
https://www.nba.com/history/legends/profiles/nate-thurmond

Excerpt:
Both Abdul-Jabbar and Chamberlain have gone on record saying they felt Thurmond was their toughest adversary. “He plays me better than anybody ever has,” Abdul-Jabbar told Basketball Digest when he was in his prime. “He’s tall, has real long arms, and most of all he’s agile and strong.” In an article in Sport, Abdul-Jabbar also said, “When I score on Nate, I know I’ve done something. He sweats and he wants you to sweat, too.”

"Some basketball observers have suggested that the 6-11 Thurmond provided the best mix of offense and defense in basketball history. Many say that his defense was better than Chamberlain’s, and that his offense was better than Bill Russell’s. With quickness and long hands, a smooth outside shooting touch, tenacious rebounding, classic shot blocking ability, and a total team attitude, Thurmond offered a perfectly balanced package."

Thurmond is one of the most underrated players of all time and is top 50, no question in my mind.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/defensive-dominator-thurmond-one-nbas-most-underrated-all-time

Thurmond went against Wilt, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Unseld, Bellamy, Beaty, Cowens, Reed - all in their prime. Yet he still managed:

-7 all star games in 14 seasons

-2 times all defensive 1st team, 3 times all defensive 2nd team...despite the fact that all defense awards didn't exist until his 6th season! Clearly one of the best defensive players of all time and one of the best rebounders of all time

-Did not make a 1st or 2nd team all NBA (obviously those usually went to Wilt/Kareem/Russell) but there's very little question he would have made quite a few all NBA 3rd team selections if it existed back when he played

-Finished 2nd in MVP voting in 66-67, finishing ahead of Russell, Robertson and Barry - Thurmond finished no. 2 behind Wilt who was no. 1. Finished 11th in 69-70, 8th in 70-7, 8th in 71-72, 9th in 72-73 and 8th in 73-74

-Helped his team to NBA Finals in 67, where they lost to arguably the greatest team of all time, the 67 Sixers. That series Thurmond averaged 14 PPG and 26.7 RPG while playing 47 MPG, going head to head vs Wilt. Thurmond's Warriors fell in 6 games to Wilt's Sixers. Let's compare that to the Eastern Division Finals - Russell (while also going against Wilt) averaged less PPG (11) and less RPG (23) than Thurmond, and Russell's Celtics lost in 5 games to Wilt's Sixers. How did Wilt do in each series? His numbers. were better in the Eastern Division Finals, going against Russell than they were in the NBA finals vs Thurmond. Wilt went from 21 PPG, 32 RPG and 10 APG vs Russell down to 17 PPG, 28 RPG and 6 APG vs Thurmond.

Elvin Hayes - here's why Hayes > Anthony Davis. Hayes = longer prime, much better longevity, much better durability. So if you're picking Davis right now you must really think that Davis peak is astronomically better than Hayes. But how good can Davis' peak really be when he's missed at least 7 games in every season of his career? He's never won MVP. He's only won 1 title and he had to join a stacked Lakers team led by LeBron James (who is literally the GOAT according to this poll) in order to win that title.

This is what Davis' Hornets/Pelicans teams did prior to Davis leaving for greener pastures, showing zero loyalty to the franchise the drafted him and teaming up with Lebron to form a super team:

2013 - below .500
2014 - below .500
2015 - swept in 1st round
2016 - below .500
2017 - below .500
2018 - lost 4 games to 1 in western conference semis
2019 - below .500

Why were Davis' teams always so bad before he arrived in LA? After all, those years (2012-2019) weren't exactly amazing years for the West. We're not talking about a stacked conference like the west was throughout the 90s or during the 2005-2009 timeframe. This was a time period where you had an old, aging Spurs team make it through a weak western conference to get to the the finals back to back years - then it was Warriors domination for the next several years with no other legit contenders in the west during that time except the 2018 Rockets. And the east was pretty weak those years as well other than Heat in 2013 and 2014 and then Cavs the next few years after that. So in a league that didn't have that many good teams - if Davis was that good of a player, how is it that he only made the playoffs 2 times out of 7 seasons, only made it out of the 1st round once and never made it to conference finals? Him, Rondo and Cousins was a solid core with some decent role players around them.

-In Davis' rookie year, the Hornets went 27-55. The year before they added Davis, they went 21-45. So after adding Davis, they won 6 more games but they lost 10 more. So that means they actually were 4 games worse after adding Davis
-In Hayes' rookie year, the Royals went 37-45. The year before they added Hayes, they went 15-67. So after adding Hayes, they got 22 games better.

Pretty significant edge for Hayes there ^

Davis has only played 8 seasons. That's simply not enough to be considered this early in the poll - only other guy with such bad longevity who's been voted in is Mikan and he was literally the best player on a championship team like 7 times - not to mention playing 7 seasons back in Mikan's era was like playing 14 seasons in the modern era.

Davis might seem like he has good numbers but consider:

1) Hayes playing in era with more possessions + playing more mins per game AND playing more games per season = he is more likely to be fatigued which accounts for his lower efficiency...whereas Davis, playing in era with less possessions + playing less mins per game and less games per season = he's less fatigued which accounts for his higher efficiency and higher numbers across the board..simply looking at per 100 possession numbers for who played 40 years apart is a slippery slope - the modern player has an unfair advantage
2) Hayes also played in a more physical era - dudes were literally getting the you know what beat out of them, there was less spacing, the paint (where Hayes operated) was more clogged up which also accounts for lower efficiency...all of that was the opposite for Davis, less physical era, so easier for him to have higher efficiency
3) No 3 point shot for most of Hayes' career (and all of his prime) so to make this an apples to apples comparison if you're looking it points per possession you'd have take all of the 3 point shots that Davis made and count them all as 2-pointers and then calculate his points. per possession.
4) The hoop/rim was different back in the 70s and so was the ball. The ball was not as favorable to dribble and shoot back then and the hoop/rim it was harder to get the ball to go in back then. The sneakers in modern era, they're more favorable, they allow you to run faster and jump higher. All of this helps Davis have better efficiency and accounts for Hayes' lower efficiency.
5) Not to mention Hayes was relied upon to carry more of his team's offensive load - teams geared up and game planned for stopping him, he saw more double teams, and it's more taxing, causes more fatigue when you have to carry the load, the shots you have to take have a higher degree of difficulty. Davis has had other guys who can score (LeBron, Cousins, etc.) so hasn't had to carry the load as much which helps his efficiency.

The durability factor is worth digging into further. Davis even during his 3 peak seasons (16-17, 17-18, 19-20) still missed 7, 7 and 9 games. If you look at his non-peak seasons, he's missing closer to 20 games per season. And this is is in an era with less physicality, more days off between games, star players playing less mins per game and the advantage of better weight training, better strength and conditioning programs, better supplements, better nutrition, better equipment, better facilities, etc. So it's not a reach to say that if Davis was playing in the 70s he would be a guy who at his peak would be missing 10-15 games a year and during non-peak seasons would be missing 30-40 games a year. You miss 30-40 games, you aren't even being remotely considered for an all NBA team. So we're looking at a player in Davis who is only a 3 time all NBA selection. Even as it stands today, Davis is only a 4 time all NBA selection. Does he really belong in the conversation for this poll? Cousy is a 12 time all NBA player and Hayes is a 6 time all NBA player.
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#13 » by sansterre » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:15 pm

It's time to talk about Tracy McGrady. I teased him earlier and got no traction. And I'm not ranking him, because nobody is yet and I have no interest in ghosting my vote. But by my stuff McGrady is the #1 player on the board right now (of the 15 names that are being discussed). Of the six metrics I use he ranks:

BackPicks (my personal CORP conversion): 1st of 15
PIPM CORP (personal CORP conversion): 3rd of 13
CORP (ElGee's numbers): 3rd of 11
Win Share CORP (personal formula): 8th of 15
VORP CORP (personal formula): 1st of 12
WOWYR (ElGee's numbers): tied 5th of 12

Look, I realize that these are all formulas. None of these are visually verified. And I'm leery of arguing hard for a player purely based on formulas. But that's pretty good representation (especially since many of these formulas value different things). You know who the WSCORP and VORPCORP formulas love love love? Dominique Wilkins and Allen Iverson. But BackPicks BPM, CORP, PIPM and WOWYR all range from disinterest to *hate* for those two. Because different formulas like different things. But T-Mac shows up pretty well in all of them. The only one he struggles with (Win Share CORP) is the stat I think least of. And he seems to have gotten even better in the playoffs. Here are some regular season vs. playoff comparisons from some of his best years (I'm not using the 'P' word because if I do Odinn will yell at me about how I chose the wrong years and he'll probably be right):

RS '01-'07: 32.9% Usage, 52.8% TS, 9.6% Reb, 28.6% Ast, 9.4% TO, +6.6 OBPM
PO '01-07: 35.1% Usage, 52.7% TS, 8.9% Reb, 34.4% Ast, 10.2% TO, +7.7 BPM

So in the playoffs his usage went up by 2.2%, and between the usage increase and going against playoff defenses (where his team was *always* the lower seed) his efficiency didn't budge. Do you realize how nuts that is? We praise Kobe for his inelastic offense, but T-Mac's statistical resume on that front is superior to Kobe's (granted, we only have five series to look at, so this could be a sample size issue, but still). Are we sure that we aren't just hating on T-Mac because he couldn't get out of the first round? How different is T-Mac's situation from Kobe in '05-'07? Except that a) we'd seen Kobe play with Shaq and it was awesome and b) we got to see Kobe play with Gasol and it was awesome. We never got to see that with T-Mac except for with Yao, and Yao was injured a lot. Here's Kobe from '06-07:

RS '06-'07: 36.2% Usage, 56.8% TS, 7.9% Reb, 24.8% Ast, 9.8% TO, +6.9 OBPM
PO '06-'07: 30.9% Usage, 57.5% TS, 8.1% Reb, 20.9% Ast, 15.0% TO, +4.2 OBPM

Kobe's usage plummets in the playoffs, but he gains little in terms of scoring (though his efficiency is still notably higher than McGrady), his assists fall, his turnovers spike . . . I'm not kidding. Are we sure that T-Mac wasn't a seriously inelastic scoring monster that never got enough support? His Heliocentrism scores, from '01 to '07 (again, VORP is only so good at stuff, but it's something):

'01: 67% RS, 80% PO
'02: 56% RS, 80% PO
'03: 97% RS, 143% PO
'04: 407% RS
'05: 45% RS, 56% PO
'06: 40% RS (missed half the season)
'07: 32% RS, 36% PO

Compare this with Kobe:

'06: 60% RS, 25% PO
'07: 58% RS, 67% PO

Look. I've gone on a while here. I'm just saying. It's pretty clear to me that McGrady's supporting cast in Orland ranged from pretty bad to flaming dumpster fire. And when he moved to Houston he started missing games and wasn't quite himself. I don't know what to make of it. But few players have his resume of stepping his performance in the playoffs, even when acting as the first option on a weak team. The second McGrady gets *any* support he'll have my vote. But until then I'm just going to push him where I can.

Anyhow, on with the list:

1. Robert Parish - Parish is done a disservice by the fact that his most memorable years ('86 specifically) were well past his prime. The knock on Parish is that he was never *great*. He had many iterations as a scorer, from higher usage and sufficient efficiency to lower usage and more efficiency. But he was never a particularly good scorer. He *was* a really good rebounder, but never dominant. He had eight different years in the top 10 of rebounds, but only one in the Top 5. He was never a dominant defender, but he was strong on that end for a very long time. And for all of McHale getting flack for being a black hole, Parish's Shots per Assist was around 10 for most of his career (compared to 7 for McHale). Parish was never a good passer and turned the ball over a fair amount. Put all this together and Parish was never dominant. He was never close to dominant. At his best he was only quite good. But here's the thing. He did that crap FOR EVER. He's 2nd all time in offensive boards, 4th in defensive boards, 10th in blocks, Top 30 in points and so on. To be clear, I don't care about those career counting stats. But I want to be clear that, in contrast to, say, Giannis, who has several ATG seasons but little else, Parish has maybe 15 All-Star (or close) seasons. In career value, Parish makes up the difference in sheer longevity.

2. Elvin Hayes - Even though VORP spits on him and his career, I have slowly come around on him (thanks to some people on this board, but also PIPM and ElGee's CORP numbers). It was a hard moment for me, because he embodies so many things I've been trained to dislike. He took a lot of shots, but never made them efficiently. He never passed terribly well. All of these paint the picture of an overrated scorer and overrated offensive player. And yet. His presence on teams generally seemed to help them a fair amount, more than you'd guess. Part of this may be that he always seemed to be on rosters that needed a high-volume scorer (whether because the team blew goats, or because it was on an all-defense squad). But whether or not his skills fit the pattern of helping his teams, they certainly did. He was a very strong rebounder, quality defender and took enough shots to free up his teammates without imploding the offense. And he did it for a really long time with minimal time lost while playing a lot of minutes. Even though he *looks* like an overrated player, I've made my peace with the fact that he had a pretty valuable career, and bears consideration.

3. Anthony Davis - Davis is amazing. I think it's impossible not to really, really like him. He's the modern Garnett/Robinson in the sense that he is INSANE as a second option. He's insane going to the rim, really hard to defend in a pick and roll and can nail threes if undefended. He can make *any* shot the defense gives him, which makes him a matchup nightmare. He's a skilled passer (for a big) and has low turnovers (for a big). And on defense he's a great shot blocker, super long and athletic to generate steals *and* quick enough to defend wings (like Jimmy Butler in the '20 Finals). I'm serious, there may not be a player better suited to the modern game than Anthony Davis. And you know what's crazy? When he played as the first option on weak teams, his scoring and efficiency generally went *up* in the playoffs. So he could absolutely play as a first option successfully, even if it was a better use of his skills to play as the 2nd. Now I'll back up for a bit. I mentioned him in the same breath as Garnett or Robinson. Is/was he at that level? Probably not. Both guys were absurd needle-movers on the defensive end, while AD (for all his gaudy box-score stats) doesn't seem to do the same. But his peak years (which is pretty much every year since 20) have been at a level nearly unmatched at this point. The knocks against him? That he misses a lot of regular season time compared to other players here. Totally fair point. But let the record show that AD's WS->CORP and VORP->CORP numbers are both pretty strong (about average in both of the 15 players under consideration now). Average may not sound great, but those are volume-driven numbers and despite a comparably short career and missing regular season time he holds his own. Him being this high on my rankings is driven by two things: ElGee's hand-calculated CORP numbers have him pretty high, and his playoff performance is consistently superior to his regular season performance (something not a lot of players can say). At the intersection of high peak + getting even better in the playoffs . . . I'm not so worried about his regular season durability.

Parish > Hayes > AD > McGrady > Mourning > Thurmond > Arizin > Parker > Iverson > Giannis > Cousy > English > Wilkins > Jokic > Walton
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#14 » by trex_8063 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:23 am

Thru post #13:

Paul Arizin - 2 (DQuinn1575, Dutchball97)
Robert Parish - 2 (sansterre, trex_8063)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)
Elvin Hayes - 1 (Odinn21)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)


Probably about 25 hours left for this one.
One more reminder to include a listing/order for all players with traction if you haven't done so; thanks.


Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
trex_8063
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:01 pm

Count stands the same as in the last post. Still around 3 hours for additional voters.....

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#16 » by euroleague » Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:45 pm

1. Bob Cousy
2. Bill Walton
3. Elvin hayes

1. Cousy was a revolutionary player in the NBA, and he was a huge contributor on many championship teams. His stats may not have been good, but as a PG, much of his impact wasn't in his scoring stats. His elite playmaking set the stage for Russell's passing to develop, and his transition offense helped the defense by tiring out opponents. It's no coincidence that the Celtics were consistently first in ppg - his offense also allowed for offensive rebounding to be more effective.

Many people hating on Cousy never actually watched these games. I myself haven't watched enough of them to be an expert, but what I have seen of Cousy has him as an elite floor general whose impact went far beyond his stats.

2. Bill Walton - This may be a lot higher than most have him, but his run at his best was so elite, both in the regular and post-season, i feel comfortable putting him this high. MVP, FMVP, would've won DPOOY, 6MOY with the Celtics on a GOAT level team. McHale had a bigger role on those teams, and will probably be my next selection, but Walton's brief period of being arguably the best player in the league, and winning Portland's only title, put him this high for me.

3. Elvin Hayes - Long, high prime, with great achievments and two-way play. Unseld gets a lot of credit for these teams, but there aren't very many championship level first options with huge longevity available at this stage in the game.

Other players Im considering: Unseld, Penny, Mourning, Arizin

Hayes> Arizin > Mourning > Lanier > Alex English > Sam Jones
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:24 pm

euroleague wrote:1. Bob Cousy
2. Bill Walton
3. Elvin hayes

1. Cousy was a revolutionary player in the NBA, and he was a huge contributor on many championship teams. His stats may not have been good, but as a PG, much of his impact wasn't in his scoring stats. His elite playmaking set the stage for Russell's passing to develop, and his transition offense helped the defense by tiring out opponents. It's no coincidence that the Celtics were consistently first in ppg - his offense also allowed for offensive rebounding to be more effective.

Many people hating on Cousy never actually watched these games. I myself haven't watched enough of them to be an expert, but what I have seen of Cousy has him as an elite floor general whose impact went far beyond his stats.

2. Bill Walton - This may be a lot higher than most have him, but his run at his best was so elite, both in the regular and post-season, i feel comfortable putting him this high. MVP, FMVP, would've won DPOOY, 6MOY with the Celtics on a GOAT level team. McHale had a bigger role on those teams, and will probably be my next selection, but Walton's brief period of being arguably the best player in the league, and winning Portland's only title, put him this high for me.

3. Elvin Hayes - Long, high prime, with great achievments and two-way play. Unseld gets a lot of credit for these teams, but there aren't very many championship level first options with huge longevity available at this stage in the game.

Other players Im considering: Unseld, Penny, Mourning, Arizin

Hayes> Arizin > Mourning > Lanier > Alex English > Sam Jones


Sam Jones and Bob Lanier are already off the table. And I need to know where Robert Parish falls within this crowd [ASAP]. Feel free to state exactly where Penny and Unseld would rank among the whole crowd, too, as it will come in handy to know for later threads.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#18 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:32 pm

Vote 1 - Elvin Hayes
Vote 2 - Alex English
Vote 3 - Allen Iverson

Parish > Cousy > Arizin > Mourning > Thurmond > Parker > Giannis > AD > Jokic > Walton

Hayes had unbelievable durability: in his 16 seasons in the league, he played in 80+ games in every season, missing a total of 9 games.

Regular Season '69-'79
23.7 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 2 APG, 1 SPG, 2.5 BPG, 45% FG, 67% FT, 49% TS, .130 WS/48

Playoffs '69-'79
23.2 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 47% FG, 65.3% FT, 50.6% TS, .143 WS/48

While he wasn't a very efficient scorer in his prime, he wasn't abysmal, either. From 69-79, his TS% of 49% was slightly below the league avg of 50.6% during that span. He also shot better in the playoffs at a 50.6% TS clip. I will still take a player's ability to score at ~average efficiency over a player who can't score at all. He used his above average athleticism on both ends of the floor to his advantage, and helped the bullets to 3 finals runs including a championship in 78.

He also had a good case for finals MVP in 78. Per writer Dave Heeren:

Remember the Elvin Hayes incident? During the 1978 playoffs, the Championship series between Washington and Seattle reached the seventh game. Rick Barry, whose Golden State team had not qualified for the playoffs that year, was announcing that game and doing his usual candid job. He pointed out that one of the referees had a short temper and that he was especially apt to make hasty foul calls against Hayes, whom he did not like because Hayes did a lot of complaining about his calls. Hayes, who had been the series' outstanding player to that point, picked up his fourth foul during the third quarter and argued before going to the bench. The same official whistled him for his fifth and sixth fouls in quick succession after he reentered the game early in the fourth quarter. Replays showed that Hayes had not committed either of the fouls. On one of them there had been no physical contact at all.

But Hayes was out of the game, and a vindictive referee could have deprived Washington of a league championship becaus the Bullets were ahead by 8 or 10 points when Hayes went out. Paced by Bob Dandridge, the Bullets did hold on to win. But Hayes was deprived of an award he wanted and deserved. Since he had not played during the closing minutes of the championship game, the championship series MVP trophy was given to Wes Unseld. Unseld, then in the twilight of his career, had produced little offense for the Bullets and had been victimized by Seattle center Marvin Webster for 30 points, or a basket more or less, in the final game.


There's talk about attitude problems with hayes, but that largely seemed to be off the court-related, and that doesn't matter to me unless it affects on the court performance.

However, once he came the Bullets, he instantly seemed to mesh with the team, both on and off the court. Combining with Wes Unseld to anchor a potent double post offense that dominated on the boards, Hayes' arrival allowed coach Gene Shue to play an up-tempo, fast breaking three guard lineup that improved from 38 to 52 wins in just one year. The team never looked back and was a legitimate juggernaut for the rest of the 1970s.


http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/8/22/3258406/elvin-hayes-jack-marin-trade-washington-bullets

When hayes went to the bullets, he cut his shot attempts down to 18.3 per game from 75-79 vs. 69-74 where he took 23.4 per game. He adapted his game and became a major factor in helping them win the championship. His game did change for the better in washington. I wouldn’t call it lucky for hayes to end up next to unseld on the front line, because if he really was that rigid, it wouldn’t have worked out. It’s not uncommon for teams to make sense conceptually, but end up falling short. I think it’s clear that they mutually benefited from each other’s skill sets.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:32 am

Thru post #18:

Paul Arizin - 2 (DQuinn1575, Dutchball97)
Robert Parish - 2 (sansterre, trex_8063)
Bob Cousy - 2 (euroleague, Hal14)
Elvin Hayes - 2 (Clyde Frazier, Odinn21)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)


10 votes requires 6 for a majority. Walton and English are first eliminated, which transfers one to Arizin and ghosts the other....

Arizin - 3
Parish - 2
Hayes - 2
Cousy - 2

Next step would make Arizin a non-majority default victor, which needs to be validated against these guys via Condorcet. I have most of the needed info:

Arizin is tied with Cousy 5-5 (so Cousy is out, because Arizin [as default winner] didn't need to beat him in Condorcet [just couldn't lose])
Arizin trails Hayes 4-6 (so there WILL be a runoff involving Hayes, at the least)
Arizin trails Parish 4-5, with 1 unknown (euroleague)

I have contacted euroleague both itt and via PM to tell him I need to know where Parish is positioned; his answer will determine whether or not this will be a THREE-way runoff.

***And this has pushed me to implementing a voter-suspension potential for those who are repeatedly holding things up. I will state the details at the start of the next thread.****

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #59 

Post#20 » by Hal14 » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:19 am

Cousy
Hayes
English
Parish
Arizin
Walton
1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)

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