It's time to talk about T-Mac. I teased him earlier and got no traction. But by my stuff McGrady is the #1 player on the board right now (of the 15 names that are being discussed). Of the six metrics I use he ranks:
BackPicks (my personal CORP conversion): 1st of 15
PIPM CORP (personal CORP conversion): 3rd of 13
CORP (ElGee's numbers): 3rd of 11
Win Share CORP (personal formula): 8th of 15
VORP CORP (personal formula): 1st of 12
WOWYR (ElGee's numbers): tied 5th of 12
Look, I realize that these are all formulas. None of these are visually verified. And I'm leery of arguing hard for a player purely based on formulas. But that's pretty good representation (especially since many of these formulas value different things). You know who the WSCORP and VORPCORP formulas love love love? Dominique Wilkins and Allen Iverson. But BackPicks BPM, CORP, PIPM and WOWYR all range from disinterest to *hate* for those two. Because different formulas like different things. But T-Mac shows up pretty well in all of them. The only one he struggles with (Win Share CORP) is the stat I think least of. And he seems to have gotten even better in the playoffs. Here are some regular season vs. playoff comparisons from some of his best years (I'm not using the 'P' word because if I do Odinn will yell at me about how I chose the wrong years and he'll probably be right):
RS '01-'07: 32.9% Usage, 52.8% TS, 9.6% Reb, 28.6% Ast, 9.4% TO, +6.6 OBPM
PO '01-07: 35.1% Usage, 52.7% TS, 8.9% Reb, 34.4% Ast, 10.2% TO, +7.7 BPM
So in the playoffs his usage went up by 2.2%, and between the usage increase and going against playoff defenses (where his team was *always* the lower seed) his efficiency didn't budge. Do you realize how nuts that is? We praise Kobe for his inelastic offense, but T-Mac's statistical resume on that front is superior to Kobe's (granted, we only have five series to look at, so this could be a sample size issue, but still). Are we sure that we aren't just hating on T-Mac because he couldn't get out of the first round? How different is T-Mac's situation from Kobe in '05-'07? Except that a) we'd seen Kobe play with Shaq and it was awesome and b) we got to see Kobe play with Gasol and it was awesome. We never got to see that with T-Mac except for with Yao, and Yao was injured a lot. Here's Kobe from '06-07:
RS '06-'07: 36.2% Usage, 56.8% TS, 7.9% Reb, 24.8% Ast, 9.8% TO, +6.9 OBPM
PO '06-'07: 30.9% Usage, 57.5% TS, 8.1% Reb, 20.9% Ast, 15.0% TO, +4.2 OBPM
Kobe's usage plummets in the playoffs, but he gains little in terms of scoring (though his efficiency is still notably higher than McGrady), his assists fall, his turnovers spike . . . I'm not kidding. Are we sure that T-Mac wasn't a seriously inelastic scoring monster that never got enough support? His Heliocentrism scores, from '01 to '07 (again, VORP is only so good at stuff, but it's something):
'01: 67% RS, 80% PO
'02: 56% RS, 80% PO
'03: 97% RS, 143% PO
'04: 407% RS
'05: 45% RS, 56% PO
'06: 40% RS (missed half the season)
'07: 32% RS, 36% PO
Compare this with Kobe:
'06: 60% RS, 25% PO
'07: 58% RS, 67% PO
Also, ESPN's RPM suddenly goes all the way back to '97.
2001: McGrady is 3rd (behind Shaq and Dirk), Iverson is 16th
2002: McGrady is 5th (behind Duncan, Eddie Jones, Shaq and Pierce), Iverson is 17th
2003: McGrady is 4th (behind KG, Dirk, Duncan)
2004: McGrady is 8th
2005: McGrady is 3rd (behind LeBron and Dirk)
T-Mac's '01-05 playoffs vs Iverson's '01-05 playoffs:
Per Game:
Iverson: 32.0 / 4.2 / 6.7 on -2.4% efficiency
McGrady: 31.6 / 6.8 / 6.1 on +2.0% efficiency
Advanced:
Iverson: 36.1% Usage, -2.4% efficiency, 5.4% Reb, 32.4% Ast, +5.7 OBPM
McGrady: 35.0% Usage, +2.0% efficiency, 9.0% Reb, 31.0% Ast, +8.5 OBPM
They used similar volumes, but Iverson shot 4.4% *below* McGrady.
Is there any reason to justify Iverson over McGrady in the playoffs besides "Iverson's teams won more"?
If you're making a longevity argument for Iverson I think that makes more sense . . . except that even still their Win Shares are comparable and VORP likes McGrady better, and that's with total stats, not looking just at peak.
I know that I'm a bit aberrant for my stats-centric approach, but McGrady's numbers (by pretty much any metric) are really good compared to everyone else here, and it's seeming like he's being dismissed for not winning. And if so . . . it is what it is. But Jordan wasn't good enough to carry a garbage team out of the first round for several years. Kobe wasn't good enough to carry a garbage team out of the first round for several years.
I'm not saying that team success arguments have no weight, but usually team success arguments have actual numbers behind them. If somebody says "Dominique Wilkins wasn't as good as his numbers, because his teams never won", well, I can look and find that Wilkins' WOWYR sucked and his numbers imploded in the playoffs. And I can go "Ah, well, there were reasons for that". But McGrady? WOWYR likes him, his PIPM is really good, and his numbers get *better* in the playoffs, not worse.
In fact, let's compare McGrady (01-05), Bryant (05-07) and Jordan (85-87), all high usage scorers who couldn't break out of the first round:
Regular Season:
Jordan: 34.4% Usage, +3.1% rTS, 8.6% REB, 23.6% AST, 10.8% TO, +7.2 OBPM
McGrady: 32.3% Usage, +1.4% rTS, 9.8% REB, 27.1% AST, 9.1% TO, +7.1 OBPM
Kobe: 34.9% Usage, +3.1% rTS, 8.0% REB, 25.9% AST, 11.0% TO, +6.6 OBPM
Playoffs:
Jordan: 35.0% Usage, +2.0% rTS, 8.9% REB, 29.5% AST, 10.5% TO, +9.0 OBPM
McGrady: 35.0% Usage, +2.0% rTS, 9.0% REB, 31.0% AST, 10.2% TO, +8.5 OBPM
Kobe: 30.9% Usage, +3.9% rTS, 8.1% REB, 20.9% AST, 15.0% TO, +4.2 OBPM
To be clear, this is a tiny sample size; two series for Jordan and Kobe, vs four from McGrady. But tell me that playoff McGrady from '01-05 doesn't look a crazy amount like playoff Jordan from '85-87.
If I ask StatHead for: 1) playoffs where the player put up a +8.0 OBPM or better, 2) with a 30%+ usage rate and 3) at least 30 MPG, I get:
Jordan had 10
LeBron had 5
McGrady had 3
Reggie Miller had 2
Eight other players had 1
To be clear, McGrady's doing it in small sample size because he always exited in the first round. So these results are biased toward him. But still; are we really, really, really sure that he wasn't absolutely bonkers in his prime and he simply never won because his teammates sucked? If he's secretly a choker, then he's a choker who, in his peak, put up better offensive performances than almost anyone ever (in admittedly small sample sizes).
I eventually come down one of two things being true of McGrady:
1) McGrady wasn't a "winner" but it never showed up in the box score metrics *or* in impact metrics;
2) McGrady was actually really damned good, but he simply happened to have garbage teammates, and by the time he got better teammates his abilities had diminished.